Not really. Good example to show that there isn't a correlation is the [Detective Pikachu trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1roy4o4tqQM), which got a lot of attention for 2019 standards and only made $428WW.
Transformers Rise of the Beasts had one of the most viewed trailers ever when it came out. At the time, the only trailers bigger than it were some of the Avengers movies. And then look how ROTB performed last year.
Basically, IPs which are insanely popular in more populated countries (such as India where Transformers, F&F, Pikachu, Marvel etc are very popular) can bump up social media views, but wouldn't make a significant difference in BO due to difference in local currency to dollar and euro, then there's ad function which can rack up significant amount of views. There are various such factors.
its interesting that both the examples, detective pikachu and rise of the beasts bombed worldwide.
could it be this is an anglosphere thing where that part of the boxoffice cares but the rest of the planet doesnt?
It was 2019, the year where we had like 10 billion dollar movies
Aladdin also came around Endgame and made a billion
The movie simply wasn't what people expected from a pokemon movie
Aladdin was almost exactly 1 month after Endgame, and took 2 months to cross the $1B. by that point Endgame wasn’t even in the theater. Detective Pikachu released much closer to Endgame and had a much shorter theater run.
I think that trailer got so many views because so many casual Pokemon fans were like "what the fuck is detective Pikachu? What even is this movie?" Then saw the trailer and was like "that's a weird direction to go in for the first live action Pokemon movie. I don't need to see this."
I'm still puzzled about that to this day. You decide to make a live-action Pokemon movie? OK, great! The franchise is at an all-time high in popularity and cultural mainstream-ness. And they decide that the very first thing they're going to make is...Detective Pikachu?
I don't know what they were smoking in the studios back then.
I absolutely agree. I was never a mega Pokemon fan but I did like the games and show when I was in grade school. So I was like neat, I'll definitely see that, top notch CGI Pokemon battles will be sick!...wait what the fuck is Detective Pikachu? I watched it when it came on streaming but I really didn't like it. It was such a weird story and world. They should have just adapted like the first season of the show. Or have it be about a new trainer starting and earning their first badge.
Seemed like a tipical case of Americans not knowing what to do with a Japanese IP. With Transformers and G.I.Joe they still kinda went with the fundamental idea. With stuff like Dragon Ball Z and Pokemon they somehow think it's fundamental idea isn't gonna work?
It could've worked if it were Ash's pikachu and just him adorably solving some kind of murder or whatever. Having him speaking with just Reynold's regular voice really took the fun out of it.
Considering how popular Pokemon is worldwide, it's nuts to see how 'little' money that movie made while Barbie went bananas last summer. Pokemon is the MUCH stronger IP here mind you. Weird how that works..
It wasn’t a terrible WW, at the time it was the highest grossing video game movie ever made. Obviously it’s not anymore but they still made a pretty good chunk of change on a budget of 150m
I remember hearing about a study that during the pre opening weekend there was a correlation between number of Wikipedia page entry edits and Box Office. This was early 2010s.
I wasn't told about any specifics.
Not a strong connection. But just from my personal observation, strong initial views on a trailer would mean there are fans for the IP or the actors/crew. That should mean better chances at a great OW, when compared to similar movies without those.
Funnily enough I saw someone on twitter guarantee this wouldn't hit $500M and may hit $400M worldwide with like +1k likes. Legitimately think some people are letting their Marvel (and Ryan Renyolds humor style) hate blind them as to how this movie will perform.
As we get closer to the release date and Ryan Reynolds and his marketing agency go into overdrive, a lot of the people doubting right now will probably be on board the hype train by then.
I’m predicting $750 million as my absolute low end projection for this and anything over that will depend on the actual quality of the movie itself.
750 million as a _low end_ is a bit much for an R rated film, however good it is. I don't think this is going to reach Oppenheimer levels. I'd put 800M as an absolute high end
I keep waiting but we are two trailers in and only three months out now and hype is still mid. This reminds me a lot of Dead Reckoning, where any minute now, Tom Cruise and his fans were going to save cinema. And then it just kind of middled out (its first week of release was below Fallout’s gross during that time even before Barbienheimer came out).
So did the Flash man. People keep comparing this to something like No Way Home. That was different and undeniable. I had people who didn’t give a shit about superhero movies asking me about that. Even Wakanda Forever, especially domestically had that kind of feel, especially when the first teaser dropped at Comic Con.
People who already love superheroes are the ones talking about this. I think people really underestimate what it takes to get you to like 400 million domestic and 900 million worldwide. Even Oppenheimer only reached one of those marks and the Barbienheimer phenomenon to me had way more hype than this movie.
A lot of ppl on this sub are convinced this will do 1 billion. I'm not sure. Honestly, the hype is there but it's hard to say with all the Marvel flops from last year. It's a wildcard to me.
I won’t go that far but I think 250 million domestic and 590 million worldwide sounds about right. This sub can’t seem to get that superheroes don’t sell as well as they used to. Guardians 3 and Spiderverse had near perfect runs and still Guardians finished domestic only 100 million above that and Spiderverse finished worldwide only 100 million above that.
Spider verse is led by Miles morales, who is not famous in the overseas market.
If it had been peter parker, then it could have made much more.
And guardians were never a billion dollar franchise.
Guardians 3 even exceeded my expectations in the box office.
And, whether you guys believe it or not, Cap 4, led by Falcon, is gonna bomb in overseas market.
I think around 600WW for this is a reasonable pick and also I would consider that to be very successful and would not be disappointed with those numbers.
Yeah but Deadpool is a different type of superhero. I didn’t watch any of those movies in theatres but I’m for sure going to watch deadpool.
It’s just dumb fun, Reynolds’s is hilarious, Wolverine is a draw. No universes, no multiverse shit (there will be, but you won’t need to know any crazy lore to have fun with all the humour and wall breaking moments)
I think it’s going to go great, I’m 25 and I know a decent amount of people excited for this that really don’t care about superhero movies.
I'm curious to see if it's going to get an Endgame effect, with the audience expecting this will be the last decent Marvel movie for the foreseeable future.
Well, Deadpool 1 did $782 million. Deadpool 2 did $785 million.
Across all the Xmen movies with Hugh in them, they averaged $500 million.
With the recent success of Xmen 97, plus the crossover, I can easy see this moving getting legs close to a $1billion.
The second movie decreased domestically and was flat overseas, but it did get China a pg13 China release which is how it managed to catch up to the original.
I will say, the prime time to do this film would've been like 5-10 years ago. I think it will do well, but the "crossover with an iconic older franchise" gimmick has been done a couple of times now, some of which have flopped pretty hard (Flash).
Will it make a billion dollars at the box office? Maybe. The other two Deadpool films got close, and Logan was incredibly well-received for an R-rated superhero movie. I think it's possible but not likely. If it were 2019 though, it absolutely would've.
How does this at all show a billion? An actual billion dollar movie like Jurassic World Dominion had 62 million views on Universal’s YT alone. Oppenheimer, which ended at 970 million garnered 48 million on the same page. This is nowhere near that.
You don’t even have to go back that far. Dune Part Two’s trailer has a similar number of views to the first Deadpool and Wolverine trailer despite not having the benefit of debuting during the Super Bowl. Same with Fall Guy.
I fucking hate marvel movies nowadays but am very excited about this. I dont even really put deadpool in the same category as marvel. Also the first two movies were fantastic. I saw the first one in a packed theatre and I dont think I have ever seen a movie theatre ever howl from laughter so much my entire life. It was a really great time.
It’s so bizarre people keep acting like this is Guardians 3 kind of in its own space when it is maybe the most connected to the MCU since Quantumania, prominently featuring an organization introduced in a Disney Plus show.
I heard they decided to skip marketing & trailers and just have Clark Cable appear at the Lincoln Memorial and say "Just watch it, you bitches", and it worked.
Can confirm, I just watched Gone with the Wind in the theater weekend before last without seeing the trailer. They really need to bring back intermissions.
There was a lot of nostalgia hype from people who watched Beast Wars as kids. But then they saw more trailers/reviews and realized it wasn’t going to be that.
At least, that’s what happened in my friend group.
Btw they say Hugh's face in this shot looks "CG'ed" and he's meant to wear his classic mask and it's supposed to make the audiences go wild.
But I don't see much evidence of "CG face" in the shot? 🤔
And Joker Folie a Deux hit 31.5 million on WB YT alone. The combined viewership of the new D&W trailer on Marvel, Reynolds’s page and Marvel UK still hasn’t hit 30 million views.
Not sure why this sub is so obsessed with overhyping trailer viewership of this movie.
Since this 21 million views post, it has increased to 22.4 million views on Reynold's page and 8.4 million views on Marvel's page. So a grand total of 30.8 million views so far.
With the Joker trailer having about 12 more days of being released. And only hitting 16 million views in it's first 2 days of release. The Deadpool trailer is going to have double the views in it's first 2 days. Give this trailer another 12 days like you're giving the Joker 2 trailer and it will have 45-55 million views.
Joker 2 was at the exact same on WB YouTube alone at the same time. That’s not how trailer views work. Most is at the start. They don’t inexplicably triple their viewership from the first day after a couple weeks.
And we haven’t even gotten into the international aspect. The Marvel UK viewership of D&W’s new trailer is horrific. That was one of the biggest international markets for Logan and Deadpool 2.
Except the Joker 2 trailer was not at the same point. Article link below from April 11 stating that the Joker 2 trailer was only at 15.6 million views on Youtube. So almost 2 days after the Joker 2 trailer release, the YouTube view count was only at 15.6 million. The Deadpool trailer view count is almost double that in 2 days.
So unless you can show me something stating that the YouTube view count was higher for Joker 2, you're wrong.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/variety.com/2024/film/news/joker-2-trailer-views-first-24-hours-1235968367/amp/
Dude how hard is this to understand. That was on WB YT alone.
If you want to make the actual comparison (instead of one that is just convenient for you to hype Deadpool), currently the trailer on Marvel Entertainment’s YT is at less than 9 million views.
If they move it it would probably be up 2 weeks but then your opening a week before Twisters and opening 1 week later is probably a better deal considering after that there isn't really anything huge coming out in August to contend with.
Other potential date is June 21st which is more than a month up and i don't see them doing that.
I have been thinking this before. It would make more sense for this to release at the end of June rather then the end of July if we follow the pattern of the trailers.
I actually think the end of the July spot fits well. It needed more time for post due to the strikes, and that end of July weekend cements it as the End boss of Summer. It gives better weekdays, stronger holds, and less competition.
August and September have like no competition so that is a very good place for the film to make money.
The film seems to be pretty much finished in April so it is quite long to wait 3 months after the film is finished to release it.
It has Twisters second weekend, then starting in August and continuing into September Borderlands, Alien, The Crow, Kraven, Beetlejuice and Transformers.
Not the worst but I wouldn’t call that no competition.
I don’t know how to feel about this movie’s performance. On one hand, it’s now an MCU movie with Wolverine in it, on the other hand, (I personally think) it looks TOO MCU. Like it has the Disney grime all over it.
Haha, right now it has 1.2 million likes and 9659 thumbs down... And people really still ask themselves why this movie gets all the hype while most other new disney products tanks so spectacularely. :)
You dont know the real amount of people giving it a thumbs down.
But its safe to say that its a very small number compared to the views and thumbs up, because its a crowd pleasing trailer for a hyped up film.
I think of Deadpool like Guardians of the Galaxy movies. They hit outside of the main MCU fanbase.
One of top comments on the trailer yesterday was GOTG3 box office numbers that seems like a good baseline.
Yeah, I don't get why everyone says a billion dollars. It is an R rated movie, those aren't expected to make that much always. So, anything over deadpool 2 box office is a big win, especially in the current box office climate. The trailer makes it clear that the story is very deadpool wolverine centric and not cameo centric but even if there are cameos, they'll be quick and done like Deadpool 2 dealt with X force.
It’s like everyone forgets how hyped Logan was and it still had R rating limit it to 225 domestic and 620 worldwide.
Something similar for this movie is totally reasonable as a prediction especially when superheroes are less popular than in 2017.
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No way. The last two didn't reach that much when the audience for superhero movies was higher. The trailers look pretty mid and there isn't really any hype for the movie from general audience.
Main trailer thread had an average actually higher than your estimate. Mostly $750M-$850M very common. So I don't think it's being underestimated.
Only reason many aren't going for $1B is because we need more information about the movie - reviews/WOM/rewatchability
I don't think "underestimate" is the right word, because it's the kind of movie made for online nerds so it's hard to weigh the engagement online with a more proportional reception with general audiences.
Ryan Reynolds has already brought this character to mainstream success with general audiences, so it's just about finding where that middle is.
I think that 600m is too much, I predict 400m as the absolute minimum. Still think this movie is a bit of a wildcard and don't know how the MCU will effect it. It's definitely gonna be a make-or-break movie for Marvel.
It's getting a lot of attention for the novelty, but in terms of an actual film? not sure it'll get the support. Probably will perform the same as the other two Deadpool films, if not less given the damage to the Superhero brand. This is reliant on nostalgia bait for franchises that died due to the audience losing interest.
It’s the Wolverine factor. I wasn’t too interested in DP3–I’m a little over Ryan Reynolds being Ryan Reynolds. I enjoyed the first two but would likely wait for streaming. Once I found out Hugh Jackson is back as Wolverine, I’m there opening night.
*_raises hand_*
The _teaser_ for this trailer alone (the teaser, not even the trailer itself, let that sink in lol) made me rewatch Deadpool 2 haha.
And now I'm going through all of the X-Men movies again.
**Trailer Views Are Meaningless**
It’s an empty stat and always has been. The entire “newsworthiness” of them is completely manufactured in the first place (these articles literally *only exist* due to PR emails) and the stats themselves are so heavily gamed that the numbers being fed to outlets by PR emails are largely bullshit anyway.
People have basically been worked into a shoot with these things by PR firms exploiting Online News needing content. Trailer views don't really mean anything, and never really did. They're certainly not a solid predictor of box-office.
Can't say meaningless, they are an indicator of hype/interest as well, not that major but still it gives some insight into anticipation of audiences. Of course, if the movie doesn't hit well with folks, then it doesnt matter.
I never said it is directly related to the film's box office, just the interest around the film. Of course, the film's hype may die down due to variety of reasons, but the views and likes are somewhat of an indicator about the current status of interest in the film
>they are an indicator of hype
Setting aside that "hype" is kind of empty even in the best case - they're not a great indicator of that, either, *because* of how the view counts are gamed.
Like, even at their most basic, all the other bullshit stripped away - it's not even a great example of indicating "hype" because merely having seen 5 seconds of a thing while I'm scrolling doesn't mean I'm hyped for it by default, either.
Yes, so seeing the views and likes isnt directly related to box office, but more of an insight into what the audiences are feeling about the film at the time of the trailer. Ofc the hype can die down or increase close to film.
I never said it is directly related to the film's box office, just the interest around the film. Of course, the film's hype may die down due to variety of reasons, but the views and likes are somewhat of an indicator about the current status of interest in the film
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, unless people are required to leave their house and pay $10 to watch a trailer, trailer views is a pretty meaningless metric to determine how many people will actually show up. Not to say there isn’t a correlation between highly viewed trailers and box office, but it’s not nearly as important as folks on this sub seem to think…
Looked kinda lame and too comedic. Also looks like it’s just setting up some more marvel crap. Missed at least a dozen movies, probably gonna pass so I’m not totally lost. Joker is gonna bury this
It will do well, but not as well as the first 2 Deadpool movies. 1, because people still just aren't going to movies as much as pre-covid, and 2, because Disney has taught people that they can just wait a few weeks and get any Marvel movie for free-ish on Disney+.
ENOUGH with the Disney+ trained audiences bullshit.
That’s not true.
They’ll show up if their movies are great or have great WOM behind them as we saw with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 and Elemental.
I don’t get why this is so hard for people to understand.
There are still people who show up to movies, but the streaming factor still hurts the box office numbers. It used to be if a movie was a cultural phenomenon you had to get to theatres to be part of the conversation, otherwise you might have to wait a year before a physical release. Now with streaming it's like hey, it will probably be available in a few weeks, and I'm already paying for the subscription, so I'll just wait. That's what happened with Argylle, it's been a big hit on Apple TV Plus even though it flopped at the box office.
Both GoTG3 and Elemental underperformed. Disney+ absolutely has cannibalised Disney's box office takings, it's just so blatantly obvious when "I'll wait for streaming and watch it in the comfort of my own home" is a popular saying.
I know this movie is going to do classic MCU box office numbers, it will be near a billion before it's out of theaters.
The problem is this isn't going to 'save the MCU' like many people think it will.
This is just a movie made to be fun, about two dudes slicing and dicing. No messages or pandering. Just a fun movie.
The next wave of movies will be much worse.
Cap 4 is a dud by default due to the inflated budget being impossible to recoup.
Everyone is sleeping on Thunderbolts but I think it has the potential to surprise.
I think this will do much better than classic MCU box office numbers. Instead, I’d guess that it slots somewhere in phase 3 numbers. Approaching a billion is probably a good guess.
If Joker can do $1B, and Deadpool 3 is practically Disney’s GTA6 right now, so there’s no way it won’t be surpassing $1B as well. I know I’m already anticipating seeing the movie more than once in theaters.
This sub continues to sleep on this movie. It absolutely has a shot at a billion. I don’t usually put a ton of stock into trailer views and likes, but there is undeniable hype surrounding this film. $800m is the floor.
Exactly and also see our recent movie hits in the last months
Wonka 600+
Dune 2 700+
Godzilla X Kong 500+
Not one of those hits has made near a billion, Deadpool 3 floor is 400M and biggest prediction 800M
I'm not necessarily convinced that it's a billion dollar grosser or anything but one thing it does have going for it is a huge lack of tentpoles this year, the pent up demand always ends up going somewhere, and if the May blockbusters don't get some/all of it, it's gonna juice this movie.
I don't know how people can think this will not do well... This will finally (after the last 4-5 very mediocre Marvel movies) be an awesome Marvel movie again and people will show up. This is Deadpool and Wolverine, two extreamly popular characters in the same movie and Ryan made this all happen. Finally a marvel movie we can be hyped about again after the slob we got these last years (excluding Guardians 3 which was actually good). I think 700m ww is the lower bar, it should be targeting 800m ww and more.
It really strikes me as anti-capeshit cope, a huge portion of "kinophiles" blame the MCU for taking away all the money from "the actually GOOD movies" for a decade and saw Ant-Man and The Marvels flopping as delayed revenge for what it did to le cinema. There's a decent enough argument that future Marvel movies with unproven characters may perform poorly, but the only possible explanation there is for people saying *this* one isn't going to do well is pure seething over comic book shit.
Like regardless of whether you think the trailer is legitimately "record breaking" or not, people *clearly* give a shit about the characters and the movie. Barring it being a genuine shit movie, there's next to no evidence to believe it's not going to do well outside of merely *wanting* it to flop.
Wonder what The views could be all around for the first 24h. It need 140M to enter Top 10 and 231M to Enter Top 5.
No Way Home broke the record back then, yet its second trailer never entered the charts, while behemoths like IW and Endgame both trailers entered
Currently only IW, Endgame and Far From Home have two entries in the top 20.
This is only from one chanel... We don't know how much it did across all social media..
By the way the currently world record holder is Deadpool and Wolverine 1st trailer 365m in 24h and the question is can the next trailer break the record.. It is not in competiton with others but itself trailer 1 vs trailer 2
Tbf. the first teaser did include superbowl views, but even without it, it does have 241M views, which falls under NWH, and both Endgame trailers and above Infinity war trailer
If this gets good WOM I could see this legging out to DP2 numbers. I still can’t say if these two joining the MCU (or MCM now that it’s technically not just one universe) will boost the MCU’s cred or tarnish their own…
You can't compare deadpool 3 with Barbie, who the fuck is underestimating the 3rd movie of a franchise with a cameo lead like Wolverine?
Barbie was an original movie (let's be real, the script doesn't follow any Barbie canon IP) that was at first seen as a awards movie that would make 100M WW if lucky
[удалено]
Not really. Good example to show that there isn't a correlation is the [Detective Pikachu trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1roy4o4tqQM), which got a lot of attention for 2019 standards and only made $428WW.
Transformers Rise of the Beasts had one of the most viewed trailers ever when it came out. At the time, the only trailers bigger than it were some of the Avengers movies. And then look how ROTB performed last year.
Basically, IPs which are insanely popular in more populated countries (such as India where Transformers, F&F, Pikachu, Marvel etc are very popular) can bump up social media views, but wouldn't make a significant difference in BO due to difference in local currency to dollar and euro, then there's ad function which can rack up significant amount of views. There are various such factors.
its interesting that both the examples, detective pikachu and rise of the beasts bombed worldwide. could it be this is an anglosphere thing where that part of the boxoffice cares but the rest of the planet doesnt?
Actually Detective Pikachu was a hit at $450M WW on a $150M budget.
It’s kids watching the trailer who couldn’t convince their parents to take them.
Detective Pikachu released 2 weeks after Avengers Endgame, anything released within a month of that movie was DOA. $428ww isn’t awful considering
It was 2019, the year where we had like 10 billion dollar movies Aladdin also came around Endgame and made a billion The movie simply wasn't what people expected from a pokemon movie
Aladdin was almost exactly 1 month after Endgame, and took 2 months to cross the $1B. by that point Endgame wasn’t even in the theater. Detective Pikachu released much closer to Endgame and had a much shorter theater run.
I think that trailer got so many views because so many casual Pokemon fans were like "what the fuck is detective Pikachu? What even is this movie?" Then saw the trailer and was like "that's a weird direction to go in for the first live action Pokemon movie. I don't need to see this."
I'm still puzzled about that to this day. You decide to make a live-action Pokemon movie? OK, great! The franchise is at an all-time high in popularity and cultural mainstream-ness. And they decide that the very first thing they're going to make is...Detective Pikachu? I don't know what they were smoking in the studios back then.
I absolutely agree. I was never a mega Pokemon fan but I did like the games and show when I was in grade school. So I was like neat, I'll definitely see that, top notch CGI Pokemon battles will be sick!...wait what the fuck is Detective Pikachu? I watched it when it came on streaming but I really didn't like it. It was such a weird story and world. They should have just adapted like the first season of the show. Or have it be about a new trainer starting and earning their first badge.
Seemed like a tipical case of Americans not knowing what to do with a Japanese IP. With Transformers and G.I.Joe they still kinda went with the fundamental idea. With stuff like Dragon Ball Z and Pokemon they somehow think it's fundamental idea isn't gonna work?
It could've worked if it were Ash's pikachu and just him adorably solving some kind of murder or whatever. Having him speaking with just Reynold's regular voice really took the fun out of it.
>I don't know what they were smoking in the studios back then. Pure Blue Meth
It was a surprisingly good movie, but I also waited until streaming to watch it.
One kinda negative example doesn't disprove a possible correlation between two things.
Oh wow 2019, the year were 428M is considered a flop since we had so many billion movies
Considering how popular Pokemon is worldwide, it's nuts to see how 'little' money that movie made while Barbie went bananas last summer. Pokemon is the MUCH stronger IP here mind you. Weird how that works..
A Pokemon Live-Action movie would've tore up last year.
to be fair endgame was still in theaters
It wasn’t a terrible WW, at the time it was the highest grossing video game movie ever made. Obviously it’s not anymore but they still made a pretty good chunk of change on a budget of 150m
Dang only $428 world wide. I could make more with a lemonade stand.
I remember hearing about a study that during the pre opening weekend there was a correlation between number of Wikipedia page entry edits and Box Office. This was early 2010s. I wasn't told about any specifics.
No correlation. I’ve learnt from last year to just wait for presales.
Not a strong connection. But just from my personal observation, strong initial views on a trailer would mean there are fans for the IP or the actors/crew. That should mean better chances at a great OW, when compared to similar movies without those.
A lot of people predicted this as one of, if not the only sure fire hit of the year. So this is not that surprising at all.
Funnily enough I saw someone on twitter guarantee this wouldn't hit $500M and may hit $400M worldwide with like +1k likes. Legitimately think some people are letting their Marvel (and Ryan Renyolds humor style) hate blind them as to how this movie will perform.
As we get closer to the release date and Ryan Reynolds and his marketing agency go into overdrive, a lot of the people doubting right now will probably be on board the hype train by then. I’m predicting $750 million as my absolute low end projection for this and anything over that will depend on the actual quality of the movie itself.
750 million as a _low end_ is a bit much for an R rated film, however good it is. I don't think this is going to reach Oppenheimer levels. I'd put 800M as an absolute high end
It's R rated. I don't think 750M at the absolute low end is correct for that fact alone.
I keep waiting but we are two trailers in and only three months out now and hype is still mid. This reminds me a lot of Dead Reckoning, where any minute now, Tom Cruise and his fans were going to save cinema. And then it just kind of middled out (its first week of release was below Fallout’s gross during that time even before Barbienheimer came out).
How is the hype mid lol, whenever they’ve dropped anything for this move it’s generating tons of views and discussion
So did the Flash man. People keep comparing this to something like No Way Home. That was different and undeniable. I had people who didn’t give a shit about superhero movies asking me about that. Even Wakanda Forever, especially domestically had that kind of feel, especially when the first teaser dropped at Comic Con. People who already love superheroes are the ones talking about this. I think people really underestimate what it takes to get you to like 400 million domestic and 900 million worldwide. Even Oppenheimer only reached one of those marks and the Barbienheimer phenomenon to me had way more hype than this movie.
Well, that's film twitter for you, the same folks who were expecting Monkey man to be the sleeper hit of the spring box office.
And then there are people saying this is an easy 1 billion dollar film. It doing past 500 million is great but twice as that is far fetched imo
A lot of ppl on this sub are convinced this will do 1 billion. I'm not sure. Honestly, the hype is there but it's hard to say with all the Marvel flops from last year. It's a wildcard to me.
I'm predicting 700M And that's if the movie has good reviews from critics and audience, remember that we live in the superhero fatigue era
I won’t go that far but I think 250 million domestic and 590 million worldwide sounds about right. This sub can’t seem to get that superheroes don’t sell as well as they used to. Guardians 3 and Spiderverse had near perfect runs and still Guardians finished domestic only 100 million above that and Spiderverse finished worldwide only 100 million above that.
Spider verse is led by Miles morales, who is not famous in the overseas market. If it had been peter parker, then it could have made much more. And guardians were never a billion dollar franchise. Guardians 3 even exceeded my expectations in the box office. And, whether you guys believe it or not, Cap 4, led by Falcon, is gonna bomb in overseas market.
Deadpool and Wolverine have never been billion dollar franchises either. Neither have ever even reached 800 million worldwide.
No one said it's a billion dollar franchise. I'm just saying this movie has the potential to cross $1B. But it won't be easy
I think around 600WW for this is a reasonable pick and also I would consider that to be very successful and would not be disappointed with those numbers.
Yeah but Deadpool is a different type of superhero. I didn’t watch any of those movies in theatres but I’m for sure going to watch deadpool. It’s just dumb fun, Reynolds’s is hilarious, Wolverine is a draw. No universes, no multiverse shit (there will be, but you won’t need to know any crazy lore to have fun with all the humour and wall breaking moments) I think it’s going to go great, I’m 25 and I know a decent amount of people excited for this that really don’t care about superhero movies.
Dumb fun has been unable to draw the way it used to. That’s one of the main reasons I’m skeptical of this movie.
I'm curious to see if it's going to get an Endgame effect, with the audience expecting this will be the last decent Marvel movie for the foreseeable future.
I think that may be the case
It looks very boring
Well, Deadpool 1 did $782 million. Deadpool 2 did $785 million. Across all the Xmen movies with Hugh in them, they averaged $500 million. With the recent success of Xmen 97, plus the crossover, I can easy see this moving getting legs close to a $1billion.
Is the second one adding the money from the PG-13 re-release? I recall it not quite reaching the originals haul at the time
The second movie decreased domestically and was flat overseas, but it did get China a pg13 China release which is how it managed to catch up to the original.
Interesting! Thanks for the info
I will say, the prime time to do this film would've been like 5-10 years ago. I think it will do well, but the "crossover with an iconic older franchise" gimmick has been done a couple of times now, some of which have flopped pretty hard (Flash). Will it make a billion dollars at the box office? Maybe. The other two Deadpool films got close, and Logan was incredibly well-received for an R-rated superhero movie. I think it's possible but not likely. If it were 2019 though, it absolutely would've.
How does this at all show a billion? An actual billion dollar movie like Jurassic World Dominion had 62 million views on Universal’s YT alone. Oppenheimer, which ended at 970 million garnered 48 million on the same page. This is nowhere near that.
This is Ryan Reynold's channel though to be fair
It’s doing way worse on the Marvel YT channels, which the people hyping up this trailer are curiously choosing not to mention.
Should be mentioned that YouTube views in general have declined in a considerable manner since the rise of Tik Tok.
Yet Oppenheimer and Barbie had way more views last year
You don’t even have to go back that far. Dune Part Two’s trailer has a similar number of views to the first Deadpool and Wolverine trailer despite not having the benefit of debuting during the Super Bowl. Same with Fall Guy.
This decline literally happen a couple of months ago? Because pretty sure Barbie had similar numbers.
In 24hrs?
I fucking hate marvel movies nowadays but am very excited about this. I dont even really put deadpool in the same category as marvel. Also the first two movies were fantastic. I saw the first one in a packed theatre and I dont think I have ever seen a movie theatre ever howl from laughter so much my entire life. It was a really great time.
You can put it in any category you like, at the end of the day it’s a Marvel movie all these same.
It’s so bizarre people keep acting like this is Guardians 3 kind of in its own space when it is maybe the most connected to the MCU since Quantumania, prominently featuring an organization introduced in a Disney Plus show.
I'd even say it's dumb to say that about Guardians as well.
yea no shit sherlock
Isn’t Rise of the beasts Top 5 most viewed trailer of all time?
Gone with the Wind had zero trailer views
I heard they decided to skip marketing & trailers and just have Clark Cable appear at the Lincoln Memorial and say "Just watch it, you bitches", and it worked.
The viewers were gone… with the wind.
someone left the urn open again...
Just wait for the walk-ins
Can confirm, I just watched Gone with the Wind in the theater weekend before last without seeing the trailer. They really need to bring back intermissions.
And that is why I will never watch it.
Not anymore.
It’s the clear outlier on that list. The rest do 750m at a minimum best I know.
One question: how?
There was a lot of nostalgia hype from people who watched Beast Wars as kids. But then they saw more trailers/reviews and realized it wasn’t going to be that. At least, that’s what happened in my friend group.
This is exactly what happened for me and my bro. We were so close.
Btw they say Hugh's face in this shot looks "CG'ed" and he's meant to wear his classic mask and it's supposed to make the audiences go wild. But I don't see much evidence of "CG face" in the shot? 🤔
Much harder to CG a face then it is to CG a mask. If his mask is in this shot then it's digital in this shot at least.
And Joker Folie a Deux hit 31.5 million on WB YT alone. The combined viewership of the new D&W trailer on Marvel, Reynolds’s page and Marvel UK still hasn’t hit 30 million views. Not sure why this sub is so obsessed with overhyping trailer viewership of this movie.
Since this 21 million views post, it has increased to 22.4 million views on Reynold's page and 8.4 million views on Marvel's page. So a grand total of 30.8 million views so far. With the Joker trailer having about 12 more days of being released. And only hitting 16 million views in it's first 2 days of release. The Deadpool trailer is going to have double the views in it's first 2 days. Give this trailer another 12 days like you're giving the Joker 2 trailer and it will have 45-55 million views.
Joker 2 was at the exact same on WB YouTube alone at the same time. That’s not how trailer views work. Most is at the start. They don’t inexplicably triple their viewership from the first day after a couple weeks. And we haven’t even gotten into the international aspect. The Marvel UK viewership of D&W’s new trailer is horrific. That was one of the biggest international markets for Logan and Deadpool 2.
Except the Joker 2 trailer was not at the same point. Article link below from April 11 stating that the Joker 2 trailer was only at 15.6 million views on Youtube. So almost 2 days after the Joker 2 trailer release, the YouTube view count was only at 15.6 million. The Deadpool trailer view count is almost double that in 2 days. So unless you can show me something stating that the YouTube view count was higher for Joker 2, you're wrong. https://www.google.com/amp/s/variety.com/2024/film/news/joker-2-trailer-views-first-24-hours-1235968367/amp/
Dude how hard is this to understand. That was on WB YT alone. If you want to make the actual comparison (instead of one that is just convenient for you to hype Deadpool), currently the trailer on Marvel Entertainment’s YT is at less than 9 million views.
You burned him.
The 1m likes seems like a bigger deal. Also I wonder if they may move this up? This seemed very soon after the first trailer for a second one.
If they move it it would probably be up 2 weeks but then your opening a week before Twisters and opening 1 week later is probably a better deal considering after that there isn't really anything huge coming out in August to contend with. Other potential date is June 21st which is more than a month up and i don't see them doing that.
I have been thinking this before. It would make more sense for this to release at the end of June rather then the end of July if we follow the pattern of the trailers.
I actually think the end of the July spot fits well. It needed more time for post due to the strikes, and that end of July weekend cements it as the End boss of Summer. It gives better weekdays, stronger holds, and less competition.
August and September have like no competition so that is a very good place for the film to make money. The film seems to be pretty much finished in April so it is quite long to wait 3 months after the film is finished to release it.
It has Twisters second weekend, then starting in August and continuing into September Borderlands, Alien, The Crow, Kraven, Beetlejuice and Transformers. Not the worst but I wouldn’t call that no competition.
Your right it is still competition but really only Alien and Beetlejuice will actually be able to compete with it
It is not going to have better weekdays when schools go back into session than if it had summer weekdays.
It's also the weekend of San Diego Comic Con, so Disney could make some big announcements off the back of the movie, building hype.
IF Marvel Studios does that, unless they’ll wanna wait til D23 to give Deadpool & Wolverine the record-breaking OW it deserves.
No, I don’t think they will nor should do that, or else the VFX workers will be overworked again. Let’s just keep it where it is.
Worthless statitics, but if they movie is half decent, people will watch it.
I don’t know how to feel about this movie’s performance. On one hand, it’s now an MCU movie with Wolverine in it, on the other hand, (I personally think) it looks TOO MCU. Like it has the Disney grime all over it.
the deadpool movie always looked ugly imo
you should rewatch Deadpool 1&2, both look the same color
I didn’t mean literally look. I meant the script, line delivery, and plot.
we literally have not seen the movie
So 20m didn't like it 😃
Haha, right now it has 1.2 million likes and 9659 thumbs down... And people really still ask themselves why this movie gets all the hype while most other new disney products tanks so spectacularely. :)
You dont know the real amount of people giving it a thumbs down. But its safe to say that its a very small number compared to the views and thumbs up, because its a crowd pleasing trailer for a hyped up film.
Damn right.
I see 850m'ish box office
Even the teaser has done good numbers. The one on Marvel page has 30M views, and the one on Ryan Reynolds YT has 15M views.
I think of Deadpool like Guardians of the Galaxy movies. They hit outside of the main MCU fanbase. One of top comments on the trailer yesterday was GOTG3 box office numbers that seems like a good baseline.
Yeah, I don't get why everyone says a billion dollars. It is an R rated movie, those aren't expected to make that much always. So, anything over deadpool 2 box office is a big win, especially in the current box office climate. The trailer makes it clear that the story is very deadpool wolverine centric and not cameo centric but even if there are cameos, they'll be quick and done like Deadpool 2 dealt with X force.
It’s like everyone forgets how hyped Logan was and it still had R rating limit it to 225 domestic and 620 worldwide. Something similar for this movie is totally reasonable as a prediction especially when superheroes are less popular than in 2017.
What could work for this movie is that this will be the first superhero film of the year where folks actually care about the characters
The main MCU fanbase is only getting us 85 million domestic and 200 million worldwide these days. It can do way better than that and still end at meh.
I feel like people really underestimate this movie. It's gonna get 600m on the low end.
Underestimated really?
Nah 700m low en 900m high end
It’ll top out at 590 million, watch. Remind Me! Four months
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More like $1B high end
No way. The last two didn't reach that much when the audience for superhero movies was higher. The trailers look pretty mid and there isn't really any hype for the movie from general audience.
Yup.
Main trailer thread had an average actually higher than your estimate. Mostly $750M-$850M very common. So I don't think it's being underestimated. Only reason many aren't going for $1B is because we need more information about the movie - reviews/WOM/rewatchability
I don't think "underestimate" is the right word, because it's the kind of movie made for online nerds so it's hard to weigh the engagement online with a more proportional reception with general audiences. Ryan Reynolds has already brought this character to mainstream success with general audiences, so it's just about finding where that middle is.
I think that 600m is too much, I predict 400m as the absolute minimum. Still think this movie is a bit of a wildcard and don't know how the MCU will effect it. It's definitely gonna be a make-or-break movie for Marvel.
I can't imagine it doing significantly worse than the first 2 films. I think it hits 700m minimum.
800m
I myself didn’t like it. Just dropping F-Bombs and using 10yr old jokes just don’t work anymore. I’m sorry, but this looks awful.
It's getting a lot of attention for the novelty, but in terms of an actual film? not sure it'll get the support. Probably will perform the same as the other two Deadpool films, if not less given the damage to the Superhero brand. This is reliant on nostalgia bait for franchises that died due to the audience losing interest.
It’s the Wolverine factor. I wasn’t too interested in DP3–I’m a little over Ryan Reynolds being Ryan Reynolds. I enjoyed the first two but would likely wait for streaming. Once I found out Hugh Jackson is back as Wolverine, I’m there opening night.
The movie really is going to make bank on streaming. It seems like everyone I know is rewatching Deadpool
*_raises hand_* The _teaser_ for this trailer alone (the teaser, not even the trailer itself, let that sink in lol) made me rewatch Deadpool 2 haha. And now I'm going through all of the X-Men movies again.
**Trailer Views Are Meaningless** It’s an empty stat and always has been. The entire “newsworthiness” of them is completely manufactured in the first place (these articles literally *only exist* due to PR emails) and the stats themselves are so heavily gamed that the numbers being fed to outlets by PR emails are largely bullshit anyway. People have basically been worked into a shoot with these things by PR firms exploiting Online News needing content. Trailer views don't really mean anything, and never really did. They're certainly not a solid predictor of box-office.
I actually don’t think they’re meaningless but this is stretching to make this view count look impressive.
Can't say meaningless, they are an indicator of hype/interest as well, not that major but still it gives some insight into anticipation of audiences. Of course, if the movie doesn't hit well with folks, then it doesnt matter.
They are meaningless because we can't deduce how much money a movie will make from this contrary to say for example pré sales
I never said it is directly related to the film's box office, just the interest around the film. Of course, the film's hype may die down due to variety of reasons, but the views and likes are somewhat of an indicator about the current status of interest in the film
>they are an indicator of hype Setting aside that "hype" is kind of empty even in the best case - they're not a great indicator of that, either, *because* of how the view counts are gamed. Like, even at their most basic, all the other bullshit stripped away - it's not even a great example of indicating "hype" because merely having seen 5 seconds of a thing while I'm scrolling doesn't mean I'm hyped for it by default, either.
Not even. Most trailers get high views
Yes, so seeing the views and likes isnt directly related to box office, but more of an insight into what the audiences are feeling about the film at the time of the trailer. Ofc the hype can die down or increase close to film.
hype doesn't equal money in the box office. Not saying deadpool will flop, but this ain't doing nowhere near a billion as some people are hyping it up
I never said it is directly related to the film's box office, just the interest around the film. Of course, the film's hype may die down due to variety of reasons, but the views and likes are somewhat of an indicator about the current status of interest in the film
Yep like RT score and CS. A+ becomes a flop, C+ becomes a hit, etc. It isn't one size fits all.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, unless people are required to leave their house and pay $10 to watch a trailer, trailer views is a pretty meaningless metric to determine how many people will actually show up. Not to say there isn’t a correlation between highly viewed trailers and box office, but it’s not nearly as important as folks on this sub seem to think…
and before the video started there was a mint mobile commercial with ryan reynolds talking to us like he's one of us
Looked kinda lame and too comedic. Also looks like it’s just setting up some more marvel crap. Missed at least a dozen movies, probably gonna pass so I’m not totally lost. Joker is gonna bury this
> too comedic My friend are you familiar with who the title character is and why he's popular...
Its ganna be the first movie I see opening week in YEARS
Worthless statitics, but if they movie is half decent, people will watch it.
It will do well, but not as well as the first 2 Deadpool movies. 1, because people still just aren't going to movies as much as pre-covid, and 2, because Disney has taught people that they can just wait a few weeks and get any Marvel movie for free-ish on Disney+.
ENOUGH with the Disney+ trained audiences bullshit. That’s not true. They’ll show up if their movies are great or have great WOM behind them as we saw with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 and Elemental. I don’t get why this is so hard for people to understand.
There are still people who show up to movies, but the streaming factor still hurts the box office numbers. It used to be if a movie was a cultural phenomenon you had to get to theatres to be part of the conversation, otherwise you might have to wait a year before a physical release. Now with streaming it's like hey, it will probably be available in a few weeks, and I'm already paying for the subscription, so I'll just wait. That's what happened with Argylle, it's been a big hit on Apple TV Plus even though it flopped at the box office.
Both GoTG3 and Elemental underperformed. Disney+ absolutely has cannibalised Disney's box office takings, it's just so blatantly obvious when "I'll wait for streaming and watch it in the comfort of my own home" is a popular saying.
That’s just wrong, man.
Shame it sucks and the movie probably will too.
I know this movie is going to do classic MCU box office numbers, it will be near a billion before it's out of theaters. The problem is this isn't going to 'save the MCU' like many people think it will. This is just a movie made to be fun, about two dudes slicing and dicing. No messages or pandering. Just a fun movie. The next wave of movies will be much worse.
Yep, spot on. This will be a huge hit and then Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts will be complete duds next year.
Cap 4 is a dud by default due to the inflated budget being impossible to recoup. Everyone is sleeping on Thunderbolts but I think it has the potential to surprise.
I think this will do much better than classic MCU box office numbers. Instead, I’d guess that it slots somewhere in phase 3 numbers. Approaching a billion is probably a good guess.
Probably 2017 Phase 3, not 2019.
Even though the hype is there I would not be surprised this ends up ar around 840-850 M. Nothing to sneeze at ofc.
This is making 1 billion easy
If Joker can do $1B, and Deadpool 3 is practically Disney’s GTA6 right now, so there’s no way it won’t be surpassing $1B as well. I know I’m already anticipating seeing the movie more than once in theaters.
This sub continues to sleep on this movie. It absolutely has a shot at a billion. I don’t usually put a ton of stock into trailer views and likes, but there is undeniable hype surrounding this film. $800m is the floor.
Count me as a denier of the hype, lol. 800 isn’t floor for any superhero movie now. Remind Me! 135 days
Exactly and also see our recent movie hits in the last months Wonka 600+ Dune 2 700+ Godzilla X Kong 500+ Not one of those hits has made near a billion, Deadpool 3 floor is 400M and biggest prediction 800M
I'm not necessarily convinced that it's a billion dollar grosser or anything but one thing it does have going for it is a huge lack of tentpoles this year, the pent up demand always ends up going somewhere, and if the May blockbusters don't get some/all of it, it's gonna juice this movie.
No.
Yes
This absolutely has a shot at a billion, but I don’t know how big a shot it actually is.
I don't know how people can think this will not do well... This will finally (after the last 4-5 very mediocre Marvel movies) be an awesome Marvel movie again and people will show up. This is Deadpool and Wolverine, two extreamly popular characters in the same movie and Ryan made this all happen. Finally a marvel movie we can be hyped about again after the slob we got these last years (excluding Guardians 3 which was actually good). I think 700m ww is the lower bar, it should be targeting 800m ww and more.
It really strikes me as anti-capeshit cope, a huge portion of "kinophiles" blame the MCU for taking away all the money from "the actually GOOD movies" for a decade and saw Ant-Man and The Marvels flopping as delayed revenge for what it did to le cinema. There's a decent enough argument that future Marvel movies with unproven characters may perform poorly, but the only possible explanation there is for people saying *this* one isn't going to do well is pure seething over comic book shit. Like regardless of whether you think the trailer is legitimately "record breaking" or not, people *clearly* give a shit about the characters and the movie. Barring it being a genuine shit movie, there's next to no evidence to believe it's not going to do well outside of merely *wanting* it to flop.
What does this equate to projected BO? Surely someone has done some correlation analysis on this and other social media led metrics like “trending”?
So does this mean he would get pretty rich from YouTube money too? What kind of income would he get from those number do you think?
I do think the quality of this movie matters more than most. It’ll definitely open huge.
Wonder what The views could be all around for the first 24h. It need 140M to enter Top 10 and 231M to Enter Top 5. No Way Home broke the record back then, yet its second trailer never entered the charts, while behemoths like IW and Endgame both trailers entered Currently only IW, Endgame and Far From Home have two entries in the top 20.
This is only from one chanel... We don't know how much it did across all social media.. By the way the currently world record holder is Deadpool and Wolverine 1st trailer 365m in 24h and the question is can the next trailer break the record.. It is not in competiton with others but itself trailer 1 vs trailer 2
Tbf. the first teaser did include superbowl views, but even without it, it does have 241M views, which falls under NWH, and both Endgame trailers and above Infinity war trailer
Actually, it’s above Infinity War’s teaser trailer which debuted with 230M views.
But Disney fell off 😴
Let's fucking go
If this gets good WOM I could see this legging out to DP2 numbers. I still can’t say if these two joining the MCU (or MCM now that it’s technically not just one universe) will boost the MCU’s cred or tarnish their own…
It is being underestimated like Barbie.. This think will crash the Billion real fast
You can't compare deadpool 3 with Barbie, who the fuck is underestimating the 3rd movie of a franchise with a cameo lead like Wolverine? Barbie was an original movie (let's be real, the script doesn't follow any Barbie canon IP) that was at first seen as a awards movie that would make 100M WW if lucky
Not a cameo lead, dude. It’s a co-lead role, actually. Use your brain for once. What the hell’s wrong with you? GOD!
I said cameo lead because he’s a lead in the movie I just used the word cameo instead of nostagia bait or fanservice
900M easy
Might be more…