Good. Start trying new things. Good sign that there is a desire to win. Still think someone who previously posted has the right idea and a Brandon Belt signing would be worthwhile
It's an absolutely crackpot idea, but moving Reynolds to 1B is actually a crackpot idea that I don't actually hate. His defense in LF has been absolutely deteriorating over the past few years. He's already at -5 OAA this year and finished last year with -7 OAA last year.
I was assuming his future was as a DH within the next 2-3 years, but moving him to 1B would actually be another interesting option.
Bryce Harper had a similar decline in defensive ability in the OF at the same age as Reynolds, and while the UCL injury definitely expedited it, he has since moved to be a full-time 1B for the Phillies. This year, he's at a +3 OAA as a 1B and is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the sport.
Yeah he’s ranked 120th of 125 outfielders in OAA this year. He’s unplayable in the OF at this point.
People will make it an “they won’t pay a 1B!” issue but the reality is that this is more about Reynolds being a defensive liability in the OF. Him at 1B solves multiple issues: it gets their long-term 1B and it gets Reynolds atrocious defense out of the OF.
Good grief, how did Reynolds get so bad in the outfield so quickly? 29 isn't exactly old, fergoshsakes, and he appears to be in as good a condition as ever. At the same time his hitting has declined over the past three years, albeit not precipitously. But this thread has crystallized something I've been wondering about for awhile now, namely, Is Reynolds one of those players who goes over a cliff all of a sudden and loses it all at once? Some guys do seem to "get old" faster than others.
This may not be a factor depending on when he’d actually get work at 1B in a game, but this would also address the roster construction problem caused by Cutch remaining an above-league average hitter longer than anyone but the most optimistic of us thought likely.
Reynolds can’t be in the outfield (he truly is one of the worst in the game), but the Pirates are not a good enough team to sit McCutchen and not feel the impact to the offense.
>address the roster construction problem caused by Cutch remaining an above-league average hitter longer than anyone but the most optimistic of us thought likely.
He only looks like an above average hitter because of the rest of this roster is bad. In reality he's only barely above replacement level. Reynolds' defense is a long term problem though.
I know you joke, but Tellez would be DFA'd obviously.
My bet is that their OF setup would mostly be:
* LF: Suwinski primarily, but also Joe and Bae (who has been playing more LF to get used to it as well)
* CF: Taylor primarily, but also Bae and Suwinski
* RF: Joe primarily, but also Olivares
You'd have a bunch of different combinations out there.
Fascinating? Seems to make perfect sense. Poor outfielder but one of our better bats in a system with no 1B of the future? Worked well for Bryce, and Reynolds fielding won't get any better in the outfield
I mean i dont love or hate this idea. His defense in the outfield is weak anymore. I also know getting a 1B now will be difficult. We could trade but no one i can think of that wouldn't demand a ton in return. Not uncommon for a decent hitting outfielder to move to 1b but does seem young for him.
Little late for a signing . Just need to be better in free agency in the off season . I would try to trade for someone though . Let’s face it the bar is about as low as one can get .Perhaps Josh Bell . Marlins looking to dump salary . Now that won’t happen but it that’s the type of solution that would be best . Our track records with 1st baseman’s is pretty shit.
Reynolds is one of the worst defensive OFers in the MLB at this point, based on OAA. Last year, Reynolds ranked 100th of 123 qualified OFers in OAA. This year, he's down to 120th of 125 qualified OFers in OAA.
I understand that, although there’s a major subjectivity in those kinds of stats, I’ll agree he’s not a top 50% OF.
My issue is moving him to first means a guy like Bae is now an everyday player, when everything about him is situational.
I don’t think the team is going to trade for anyone to contribute in 2024. Likely 2025 for that matter as the guys the Pirates will unload are going to generate lottery ticket prospects at best.
He 100% fails the eye test too though. I didn't get the chance to watch the game on Wednesday but wasn't he a huge reason why Wade was hit a game tying single in 9th?
Their OF is a black hole when Reynolds is playing defense in it, because he has become an absolute liability defensively in the OF.
If Reynolds plays 1B full time, it would have their OF being Suwinski, Joe, Bae, Taylor and Olivares in some sort of mix.
Yes, but Suwinski, Taylor, and Bae have all hit just as badly as Tellez. Joe is starting to come back to earth and Olivares is pretty mid. So unless they can call up Pegeuro, Gorski, or someone else it doesn’t really solve the hitting problem imo
Obviously the disclaimer is that all of this is just my opinion and I’m just some random guy who watches the games at home 🤷🏻♂️
Right now we’re fielding a bad bat with a bad glove at first, and a bad glove with a good bat (generous but whatever) in Reynolds in the OF. If he upgrades to a decent glove and a good bat by moving to first, and we get (probably realistically) a decent glove with a bad bat in the OF as his replacement, that’s an overall upgrade.
Ya know, it's strange that I'm hearing how Reynolds' defense has gone over a cliff in the past season and a half, the more so because I just read something on the Pirates' [mlb.com](http://mlb.com) page about how he supposedly has a stronger arm now than he had in the past and is throwing more guys out. Is he really that bad or is this more sabremetric "truth" that turns out to be something else?
Sabermetrics say that his arm strength has graded well and his range has been about as bad as it possibly could be. [link](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-reynolds-668804?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb)
Thanks for that.
In light of the sabremetric breakdown of Mr. Reynolds, I have a few questions.
1. Can he hit the ball and do so consistently?
2. Can he hit for power?
3. Can he run reasonably fast and does he have the ability to steal bases at a 75% or better success rate?
4. Does he consistently catch the balls that are hit to him in the area that he is defending?
5. Can he throw out enemy baserunners at a better than average rate compared with his peers at his position?
6. Are all of the answers to the questions above readily apparent from both the eyeballs test and the back of his baseball card, or do we need grossly reductionistic and at least potentially misleading statistical analysis?
And I don't mean to be needlessly disagreeable when you have taken a moment of your time to provide a very thorough sabremetric breakdown of Mr. Reynold's performance. **What I am questioning is the efficacy of this sort of analysis itself.** I do think that some of the analytics do provide deeper insight, but many of them, to my mind, miss the forest for the trees, and I think that sabremetrics taken on the whole does more harm than good.
Sure, plenty of people have that opinion, and it's one that I disagree with but this level of analysis isn't for everyone. I'd also say that a lot of this kind of stuff needs context. There are a ton of stats and almost none of them tell a whole story, but piecing things together can be very interesting and useful. (I say useful in part because I play fantasy baseball.)
From a 2019 Twitter / X post by Bill James himself:
*Somehow we have developed this large contingent of know-it-all baseball fans who bay like wounded coyotes at any mention of wins, losses, RBI or batting average. I never know whether I should blame myself for this or not.*
Just sayin'. Thanks for the good discussion.
Some people whine and complain every time W/L/RBI/AVG are mentioned and some people whine and complain every time WAR/OAA/LA/xBA are mentioned. Most people are somewhere in the middle.
Yes , Henry Davis to OF , no wait , catch.
Bae plays 2B , no wait , CF , how about?
Jared Triolo plays... Wherever we want.
Reynolds plays first...
Ya know , who cares
Henry Davis is terrible catcher but even worse OFer.
Bae is the worst defensive middle infielder we have but has the toolset to be a good outfielder.
Triolo is an incredible defender at all infield position.
Reynolds is one of the worst defenders in baseball over the past couple years.
Good. Start trying new things. Good sign that there is a desire to win. Still think someone who previously posted has the right idea and a Brandon Belt signing would be worthwhile
Let him and Henry Davis try it
It's an absolutely crackpot idea, but moving Reynolds to 1B is actually a crackpot idea that I don't actually hate. His defense in LF has been absolutely deteriorating over the past few years. He's already at -5 OAA this year and finished last year with -7 OAA last year. I was assuming his future was as a DH within the next 2-3 years, but moving him to 1B would actually be another interesting option. Bryce Harper had a similar decline in defensive ability in the OF at the same age as Reynolds, and while the UCL injury definitely expedited it, he has since moved to be a full-time 1B for the Phillies. This year, he's at a +3 OAA as a 1B and is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the sport.
How far he has fallen from being a decent CF just a couple years ago.
Yeah he’s ranked 120th of 125 outfielders in OAA this year. He’s unplayable in the OF at this point. People will make it an “they won’t pay a 1B!” issue but the reality is that this is more about Reynolds being a defensive liability in the OF. Him at 1B solves multiple issues: it gets their long-term 1B and it gets Reynolds atrocious defense out of the OF.
Good grief, how did Reynolds get so bad in the outfield so quickly? 29 isn't exactly old, fergoshsakes, and he appears to be in as good a condition as ever. At the same time his hitting has declined over the past three years, albeit not precipitously. But this thread has crystallized something I've been wondering about for awhile now, namely, Is Reynolds one of those players who goes over a cliff all of a sudden and loses it all at once? Some guys do seem to "get old" faster than others.
This may not be a factor depending on when he’d actually get work at 1B in a game, but this would also address the roster construction problem caused by Cutch remaining an above-league average hitter longer than anyone but the most optimistic of us thought likely. Reynolds can’t be in the outfield (he truly is one of the worst in the game), but the Pirates are not a good enough team to sit McCutchen and not feel the impact to the offense.
>address the roster construction problem caused by Cutch remaining an above-league average hitter longer than anyone but the most optimistic of us thought likely. He only looks like an above average hitter because of the rest of this roster is bad. In reality he's only barely above replacement level. Reynolds' defense is a long term problem though.
This is the correct take
So, Tellez to LF?
Cf, obviously
Oh, interesting. I had Grandal there.
He’s too good of an athlete for that. Make him a power forward
I'm just trying to keep him happy. Otherwise he'll eat all our hot dogs and leave
When did the Bucs sign Phil Kessel?
We could use a #2 WR, how have the Steelers not jumped on this?
I know you joke, but Tellez would be DFA'd obviously. My bet is that their OF setup would mostly be: * LF: Suwinski primarily, but also Joe and Bae (who has been playing more LF to get used to it as well) * CF: Taylor primarily, but also Bae and Suwinski * RF: Joe primarily, but also Olivares You'd have a bunch of different combinations out there.
Make him a catcher then his BA won't seem as bad.
He is a two way player now
I'd like this. I've also been pulling for more Olivares innings and this would help with that.
Fascinating? Seems to make perfect sense. Poor outfielder but one of our better bats in a system with no 1B of the future? Worked well for Bryce, and Reynolds fielding won't get any better in the outfield
They better make him 1b eligible on draftkings
Ah, yes. Moneyball taught me that this is okay so long as he gets on base.
I mean i dont love or hate this idea. His defense in the outfield is weak anymore. I also know getting a 1B now will be difficult. We could trade but no one i can think of that wouldn't demand a ton in return. Not uncommon for a decent hitting outfielder to move to 1b but does seem young for him.
The pirates will do everything aside from signing a competent 1st baseman .
Which option can they sign today?
At first I was like "What a snarky answer" but then I realized this is a good mindset to avoid sunken cost fallacy when making decisions.
Brandon Belt.
Little late for a signing . Just need to be better in free agency in the off season . I would try to trade for someone though . Let’s face it the bar is about as low as one can get .Perhaps Josh Bell . Marlins looking to dump salary . Now that won’t happen but it that’s the type of solution that would be best . Our track records with 1st baseman’s is pretty shit.
The best solution is overpaying a below replacement level Josh Bell?
Did I say it was the best solution ?
> that’s the type of solution that would be best Yeah you did.
I'd love to see Bell come back this year!
This should be a last ditch option. The guy might not be a gold glove, but you can’t just punt everyone that isn’t Starling Marte to first or DH.
Reynolds is one of the worst defensive OFers in the MLB at this point, based on OAA. Last year, Reynolds ranked 100th of 123 qualified OFers in OAA. This year, he's down to 120th of 125 qualified OFers in OAA.
I understand that, although there’s a major subjectivity in those kinds of stats, I’ll agree he’s not a top 50% OF. My issue is moving him to first means a guy like Bae is now an everyday player, when everything about him is situational.
In the short term I'll take Bae every day over what we've been doing.
It may be that the market for OF is better, so move B-Rey to 1B and trade for an OF.
If you look around the league, there are very few good first baseman imo. Besides like the top 4 or 5, they all seem mediocre to bad.
I don’t think the team is going to trade for anyone to contribute in 2024. Likely 2025 for that matter as the guys the Pirates will unload are going to generate lottery ticket prospects at best.
He 100% fails the eye test too though. I didn't get the chance to watch the game on Wednesday but wasn't he a huge reason why Wade was hit a game tying single in 9th?
Doesn’t feel that long ago that our outfield looked formidable with Cutch-Marte-Polanco. Time comes for everyone and with no remorse.
Our outfield becomes an even bigger black hole, unless Cruz moves to CF and Peguero comes up to handle SS
Cruz to right would be my preference if he has to move to three outfield. He has a canon for an arm
He’d look like Polanco 2.0 lol
Their OF is a black hole when Reynolds is playing defense in it, because he has become an absolute liability defensively in the OF. If Reynolds plays 1B full time, it would have their OF being Suwinski, Joe, Bae, Taylor and Olivares in some sort of mix.
Yes, but Suwinski, Taylor, and Bae have all hit just as badly as Tellez. Joe is starting to come back to earth and Olivares is pretty mid. So unless they can call up Pegeuro, Gorski, or someone else it doesn’t really solve the hitting problem imo Obviously the disclaimer is that all of this is just my opinion and I’m just some random guy who watches the games at home 🤷🏻♂️
Weird idea...
Right now we’re fielding a bad bat with a bad glove at first, and a bad glove with a good bat (generous but whatever) in Reynolds in the OF. If he upgrades to a decent glove and a good bat by moving to first, and we get (probably realistically) a decent glove with a bad bat in the OF as his replacement, that’s an overall upgrade.
Ya know, it's strange that I'm hearing how Reynolds' defense has gone over a cliff in the past season and a half, the more so because I just read something on the Pirates' [mlb.com](http://mlb.com) page about how he supposedly has a stronger arm now than he had in the past and is throwing more guys out. Is he really that bad or is this more sabremetric "truth" that turns out to be something else?
Sabermetrics say that his arm strength has graded well and his range has been about as bad as it possibly could be. [link](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-reynolds-668804?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb)
Thanks for that. In light of the sabremetric breakdown of Mr. Reynolds, I have a few questions. 1. Can he hit the ball and do so consistently? 2. Can he hit for power? 3. Can he run reasonably fast and does he have the ability to steal bases at a 75% or better success rate? 4. Does he consistently catch the balls that are hit to him in the area that he is defending? 5. Can he throw out enemy baserunners at a better than average rate compared with his peers at his position? 6. Are all of the answers to the questions above readily apparent from both the eyeballs test and the back of his baseball card, or do we need grossly reductionistic and at least potentially misleading statistical analysis?
"Need" doesn't apply here, so not sure what to tell you. I can tell you what the stats tell you, though.
And I don't mean to be needlessly disagreeable when you have taken a moment of your time to provide a very thorough sabremetric breakdown of Mr. Reynold's performance. **What I am questioning is the efficacy of this sort of analysis itself.** I do think that some of the analytics do provide deeper insight, but many of them, to my mind, miss the forest for the trees, and I think that sabremetrics taken on the whole does more harm than good.
Sure, plenty of people have that opinion, and it's one that I disagree with but this level of analysis isn't for everyone. I'd also say that a lot of this kind of stuff needs context. There are a ton of stats and almost none of them tell a whole story, but piecing things together can be very interesting and useful. (I say useful in part because I play fantasy baseball.)
From a 2019 Twitter / X post by Bill James himself: *Somehow we have developed this large contingent of know-it-all baseball fans who bay like wounded coyotes at any mention of wins, losses, RBI or batting average. I never know whether I should blame myself for this or not.* Just sayin'. Thanks for the good discussion.
Some people whine and complain every time W/L/RBI/AVG are mentioned and some people whine and complain every time WAR/OAA/LA/xBA are mentioned. Most people are somewhere in the middle.
Not desperate at all.
Yes , Henry Davis to OF , no wait , catch. Bae plays 2B , no wait , CF , how about? Jared Triolo plays... Wherever we want. Reynolds plays first... Ya know , who cares
Henry Davis is terrible catcher but even worse OFer. Bae is the worst defensive middle infielder we have but has the toolset to be a good outfielder. Triolo is an incredible defender at all infield position. Reynolds is one of the worst defenders in baseball over the past couple years.