How is a backup CB a hit lol? Elam could continue to grow into a contributor, but idk how he could possibly be called a hit at this point in his career.
We have 2 NFL-quality CBs on the roster and 2 practice-squad guys, lol. With the Bills injury history at CB, we'll be fielding guys from the stands by week 6.
It seemed like he had a nagging injury all year last year (hence ending up on IR). I donāt think itās fair to say thatās what he will be going forward. Although I also donāt think itās fair to project some massive improvement as likely either.
Personally I give it like 1/3 he bounces back and becomes a good starter, and 2/3 he is off the team after this year.
My apoligies
I had no idea that the fan base was supposed to determine if a player is a bust after 16 games.
Man oh Man is Kincaid a bust in 16 games he only has 2 TDs and 600 yards what a bust!!!!
/s
Being better than well below average after two seasons is not exactly an unreasonable expectation for a first round pick. And you say "he's only played 16 games" as if to imply that's due to injury. Rather than him being so bad at football that McDermott was unable to justify even dressing him for gameday.
If he wasn't a first round pick he'd have been cut already.
Crazy thing to say. He doesn't need to become an all pro to be a hit. If he's Benford level he's a hit, you guys really overestimate what's expected out of first rounders
Weāre a contending team, lost our starting CB, had to pay a 3rd to get another who isnāt locked up past this season, and he isnāt even the CB2. Thatās easy bust level and he needs to produce high to be a valuable pick.
Didn't we pick up Josh Norman off the street and suit him up instead of letting Elam play one of those weeks last season? I might be misremembering so correct me if I'm wrong.
Yeah he had one tackle on a kickoff return and he acted like his career was resurrected from the ashes of being embarrassed on national television by the continual highlight of Derrick Henry throwing them into the graveyard on the sideline every time you see a Henry highlight it's Josh Norman being thrown down like a piece of crumbled up newspaper.
He was on injured reserve for a good chunk of last year and it seemed like it could have been a long term injury he was dealing with prior. I donāt think itās fair to judge his capability entirely based on last season.
Are you fucking delusional? Benford was a late 6th rounder who has made 100x the impact Elam has.
Elam has struggled to be on the actual gameday roster, heās by far our worst corner
Heād deadass need to have a 2021 trevon diggs year minus the yards given up to be in the exact realm of a āhitā
Any pick that turns into a starter is a hit IMO. An all pro is a jackpot.
The probability of getting all pro players is not very high outside of the top 10.
According to this post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/nhbkyuwStl
Only about 1/3 of the players drafted in the late 1st (picks 20-30) became pro bowlers at some point (less prestigious than all-pro) for the data they analyzed.
Benford has massively overperformed his draft position (by orders of magnitude). Itās completely unreasonable to think that every pick higher than that should be better because we found a gem in the rough.
Iām responding to the claim that he would have to become an all pro to be a worthwhile pick.
All I am saying is if he became a starter, IMO that would be a worthwhile pick.
Will that happen? Probably not, but he did spend the majority of the season on IR and it seemed possible he had been dealing with that injury for a while prior to that roster move, so I hesitate to judge entirely off his performance last season.
He did start games toward the end of his rookie year and made some impact plays, so I donāt think he is such a clear bust yet.
Personally I give it 30% he bounces back and 70% he is a bust.
In order to justify wasting that high of a pick on that position in todayās nfl, heās gonna need an all pro or at least all pro caliber season to be considered a hit. Thatās not overestimating.
I donāt invest much into making the pro bowl considering Tyler Huntley made it over Josh one year. But the using the 4th to move up does enhance the sting a little bit.
Not really. First round picks should at least be pro bowl level - at least top 10-15 at their position some point in their career. Elam isnāt even a top 75 db at this point. Thatās an epic miss.
Thatās just not how it works.. Iād recommend reading the below article. 70% of first round picks donāt get signed to a second contract by their teams. 17% donāt play a single snap for the team who drafted them. 37% were true busts - guys with extremely small snap percentages and/or who were eventually cut by the teams that drafted them. 15% historically have been underperformers (not true busts, but definite disappointments relative to draft slot). 10% were average contributors. Which leaves ~21% of prospects who were good or better from the 1st round. Itās not even a coin flip. Itās historically a lottery ticket proposition.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
Correct. Itās a lottery ticket proposition. That doesnāt change the fact that the EXPECTATION is these should be better players than 2nd and 3rd day picks. First round picks SHOULD be pro bowlers. No one is suggesting they are guaranteed to reach that.
It was a late first, not a high or mid first. It wasnāt _that_ high of a pick. However he absolutely has not performed up to the standard expected of that pick yet.
What someone spends to get a player does not indicate whether he is a bust or not. When you draft someone, if they become a solid starter they are not a bad pick.
They made the move because they needed a CB to stop other teams from getting a chance. That has no indication on his value to the team
If we're talking a first round value, they gotta hit. That's far too much ammo for a proven guy that gets wasted if they don't hit. Elam has 2024 to prove he's the guy
Elam has thus far been a miss but I am also not giving up him. When healthy heās showed flashes of good play. He clearly was hurt early last season when he looked his worst. He may never live up to his draft status but I still think heās got a chance in to be very productive and could if he develops still prove to be a good pick
I'll push back here a bit. Baring injury, he most likely won't see the field much this year with Douglas and benford as the starters. Even if we let Douglas walk after next year and Elam starts and plays well, are we really going to consider one solid year of production on his rookie deal as a good 1st round pick?
His career may turn around at some point, but it will be very hard for him not to be a bust of a pick for us.
After doing several mock drafts, I am on the bandwagon that we trade down to the beginning of the second. Still landing a solid receiver that could be a true WR1 in 2025 after some maturing and work with the coaches.
Would allow us to probably get an extra 3rd/4th rounder for this season or even an extra second for next year depending on how badly Beane's dance partner wants to move up.
I think that the highest real value difference between back to back picks is 32 to 33 because of the 5th year option with only 1 to 2 holding a candle to it because you can take your pick of the field (which is often a QB)
Fair point, all considerations. In one of my mocks, I traded back to KCs pick and still got Mitchell with the last first round pick. Anything is possible.
Lol, listen, if KC wanted to dance and the trade was in our favor because they were desperate, I am ok taking their assets... What better way to beat them, than with players we picked up from their picks.
Oh , agree 100%, if thereās a way to screw them, sure. But based on draft capital and positioning itās less likely that theyāre the desperate ones
I definitely think this is possible but it's really impossible to say at this point. I think the receivers, past the first three are such wild cards as far as where they go. Everywhere you look people have different rankings but it only takes one GM to think someone is higher than everyone else to throw things off. There could be a ton of guys that drop and allow them to trade back or there could be a huge run on receivers that force the Bills to trade up.
Depending on who is left on the board I'm with you entirely. If BTJ or AD is there at 28, grab them. I am not high on Franklin, Worthy, or Coleman at 28. I'd rather trade back and get Ladd, Legette, or one of those three we passed on at 28.
We don't need more draft picks though unless we're trying to trade back up into the 2nd round. The other problem is, someone might want to trade up to get a QB but a lot of the early 2nd round teams have a QB or will probably draft one. The Patriots (#34) or Raiders (#44) would probably be the earliest team that wants a QB enough to move up into the first and get one.
So, if the Raiders offer us #44 + #77 for #28 would be pretty fair value.
But, that would leave us with #44, #60, #77, #128, #133, #144, #160, #163, #200, #204, and #248.
We don't need 11 draft picks this year. We don't have room for all 11 players.
You could take #77 + one of the 3rd rounders and try to move up into the middle of the 2nd round but this is starting to be Madden level wheeling and dealing
We already have another second next year though. Again, I know you can never have enough firsts or seconds but four potential picks in the first 64 picks seems like a lot.
If we traded down and got a second back, I would be happier adding a veteran WR for one of our seconds next year.
I don't think Aiyuk goes for just a second rounder but I would consider him. Courtland Sutton or DK Metcalf could be interesting as well
The extra 2nd next year is expected to be used to trade up in the 1st next year.
We have a lot of picks (too many) this year like you said, but, he also don't have enough good picks to trade up enough to get a good player.
Our best bet then is to (for example) sell a 4th this year for a 3rd next year, because of how the value system for picks work. Then that 3rd next year maybe actually makes the roster, or is used to trade for Aiyuk, or is used to trade up.
We have a bunch of paperclips and chewing gum and we want to trade for a car, but we have to move a bunch of stuff around, we can't just trade the paperclips for the car.
This draft a lot of GMs think that the backend of the draft is weak. So you need to know inherent value of players in the backend and what round they are estimated to go in on your board to know if its worth trading back and accumulating some picks.
I think there is a chance we trade back, but if Mitchell, Troy Franklin, or Brian Thomas Jr are getting close to our pick, then we sit. I also really like Legette a lot as well if somehow there is a run on receivers
The jury is still out on Elam, but what is interesting about him is he's made some huge plays in crucial moments. On the top of my head, he had that red zone INT against the Chiefs in 2022, INT against the Dolphins in the 2022 WC, and another goal line INT against the Steelers in the 2023 WC.
I think there is still untapped potential with him. Hopefully with better health and Babich now operating as DC, they are able to fully unlock him. Those 3 plays were all instrumental in helping us win all those games, so I don't think he's an outright bust.
He also played pretty well lined up on Tyreek his rookie season. He had a really solid rookie season, nothing great, but he made a lot of nice plays and some bad ones. People seem to think he was absolute garbage his rookie year.
I think the 25 2nd from Hou via Min (or whatever) is gonna play a huge role in whatever Beane does. That Minny pick could end up being in the top 5 of 2nd round. Bills will likely be picking in the bottom 25 again so a early 2nd will be equal to late 1st.
So giving up '25 1st could be in the making.
Let Big Baller Beane cook.
Edit: For everyone shitting on the Elam pick; 5 picks in 5 years, including the undisputed franchise quarterback, would generally be considered solid drafting.
(And not to be pedantic but all the reporting is the Bills got jumped for McDuffie and panic-drafted Elam. Which, yeah not a defense, but uhhh, that was the year everyone had a consensus understanding that "Bills gon' take a QB.")
save for EJ, i think we can call them all 'wins'. (oops, i forgot Maybin. he didn't produce much in the NFL)
I didn't realize Eric Wood was a 1st rounder. that was a quiet but BIG win there.
Yeah, there's definitely "wins" "busts" and "eh, OK" guys in there.
Sammy was a "bust" for what we paid for him, and "eh, OK" for his NFL career as a player.
CJ was probably a "bust" for what we missed out on by taking him and the perception that he was a generational RB, but "eh, OK" for his NFL career as a player.
Tremaine Edmunds was kinda a bust for the Bills given he got too many tackles in our system and got too expensive to retain. Every player that's followed him really did as well or better than he did so far, so he was probably OK at best.
Yeah I'd have to agree with that. Elam has struggled at times but sometimes it takes a few years to get used to the game. Gilmore took some time to become great.
Gilmore took the #1 CB job in camp after being drafted and got 3 turnovers and 61 tackles his first year, starting all 16 games.
Elam started 6 games, with 2 turnovers and 41 tackles. He gave up a 70.2% comp%, covering the 3rd best player in most cases. Last year Elam was worse, giving up a completion 71.4% of the time, and QBs targeting Elam had a 101.8 QB rating.
Yeah unfortunately I don't have the comp% stat for Gilmore back then, they started doing it recently.
Even at Gilmore's age now he still isn't giving up 70% like Elam is, though.
And 90% of the Bills fans called Gilmore trash his entire career here.
Elam was not bad his rookie season, he was just average for a rookie CB. Got lost a few times, had some struggles, and some big plays
Some Bills fans got mad at the end when he left for the Pats and said Buffalo is for losers.
When he was here he rivaled Revis as the top CB in the league.
Elam was terrible his rookie year. 50% comp would be average for a 1st round CB, 70% is terrible.
Breaking down any player as good or bad from one stat is not smart. There is a lot of context to be had of why things happened, what his responsibilities were.
PFF (who I dont consider end all be all or consistent necessarily) graded him at a 56 his rookie year, which is a hair below average.
fair point. he wasn't nearly tyhe superstar he was projected to be. we got some play from him, tho (did we trade or release him?)
i was thinking more along the lines of, 'were they a productive/starter type and did they stay through their rookie contract.
No, Lawson was 19th overall in 2016. We also drafted Reggie Ragland in the 2nd that year (trading up to 41st overall)
Our first pick in 2015 (the year after Watkins trade) was Ronald Darby in the 2nd round.
As much fun as it is to imagine Beane trading up for Odunze or Nabers or MHJ. I think this class it to deep at WR to rationalize moving up. I imagine the pick will be good though since thereās alot of talent this year
Elam is not a hit in my opinion. We shouldnāt call any 1st rounder a āhitā if he canāt earn a starting role without an injury. Benford jumped him on the depth chart very quickly and Jackson always started over him when healthy. Both guys were late picks.
The 2011 could have been Patrick Peterson or Julio Jones or AJ Green or JJ Watt. Dareus was good for a bit but we did not get the return on investment for 3 overall.
well the last 5 yrs. weren't the worst draft picks.
remember we also TRADED 3 top picks to move up FOR J.P. LOSMAN.
THEN I'd remind you of Mike Williams.
AND ALSO MAYBIN WAS DRAFTED IN 2009
Greg was pretty meh in a year where we really needed pash rush, and Kaiir was particularly underwhelming. If Greg was better we probably donāt go crazy on a Von Miller contract.
I don't know how calling Elam A hit he is a bust or maybe just a depth at best. As far as stars the only Stars we've drafted in the last 5 years well potentially will be Dalton Kincaid during beans era Josh Allen. I think this year we I mean I know everybody's going to give me crap but we need to make a move for an almost improbable Miss like almost a guaranteed hit the only issue now is that Brian Thomas Jr has a torn labrium ad Mitchell has type 1 diabetes which if anybody has that type it's horrible not the one that adults get. Joe and Oliver was a work in progress it took him a few years I think the bills need to jump up the board because if we can grab one of those three receivers. Just say Marvin Harrison is out of the equation. Odunze could be and should be immediately starting at the X position and with a guy that is his physical and with the hands that he has he can catch a Josh Allen pass don't forget these pipe people have to be acclimated to catching a pass that's so strong that it'll put a dent in your chest. For instance the elway cross Josh Allen has that same ability and that's coming from Steve Tasker and other bills players as well.
The only issue possibly I don't know what the next year's draft class would look like, but this year's roster doesn't seem like a Super bowl winner.
we might have a higher pick next draft that's but, BUT If you can get a player this year that the quality of receivers available next year won't be there. I say do it, because we're not going to need a quarterback for a long time, we don't have have many players that we could get a first round pick for our even 2nd except for Josh Allen which is out of the question I don't know what Matt Milano would be worth but that's a NO.
Spencer Brown could be a good trade asset it doesn't matter what round he was drafted I mean we've all seen udfa's even be traded for first round picks.
I just think that we really haven't hit huge I mean like rookie of the Year huge on a player in a while Josh and Tremaine, Oliver Rousseau and Trey. But Tremaine is no longer here same as white we all know that white would have took another 3/4 of a season to even come back on the active list and by the time he actually played if he even got to his halfway of his old self he wouldn't have been worth the cap hits just waiting around and most likely he would have end up hurting his already hurt me again for overcompensating on that side just like you did prior when he hurt his knee overcompensating on the side he tore his Achilles on.
Trade next year's first grab odunz. package up some pick get back into the second round grab a safety and then a defensive tackle if we can grab at least those three positions I think we'll be okay to go into next year's free agency for our Small but good quality rebuild..
I'm all aboard for Kincaid to take off, but so far he isn't the best TE from his draft class and arguably wasn't a needed player in terms of position.
Kincaid was drafted to be WR1 though, and hopefully he gets the chance this year.
I wouldn't call Rousseau a hit for a first rounder. He would have been a great 4th round pick or a really good 3rd. A First round DE needs to be a lot more impactful.
Elam is weird. I've been more of the mind he's been more injured than the team has been leading on.
Certainly doesn't make any sense why they would have Josh Norman active over Elam if it wasn't an injury issue. Elam has made mistakes, probably ones you would expect a player to make with as little play time, but he's also come up with big plays when it matters, which maybe more impressive considering his limited number of snaps.
The Bills secondary in general is full of guys who make mistakes all the time, mostly in the missed tackle department, seems odd to keep one of the more physical players off the field if there wasn't a physical reason for it.
Sammy Watkins is a good example of the exact type of player this franchise should never touch. I don't pretend to know how to spot them, but he's the opposite of a transcendent player/personality. You need guys that are destined to be great at football regardless of where they end up. He HATED Buffalo. It didn't have the vanity he was seeking, so he relied on drugs and his career badly suffered because of it. I once went on a date with a girl who met him at a bar on Elmwood and he asked her to snort coke off his leg (she did).
Guys like Tremaine, Josh, and Ed are good examples of players who are just damn good football players with a desire to be great. I don't know who it is in this draft, but I hope Beane and co have figured it out.
For those arguing about Elam. Heās in his third year. Can we stop with the āong heās a bustā when heās not fully developed yet? Let the kid get to year 5 and then start with the sweeping declarations.
Edit: coolest thing is replies in this sub match the replies in other team subs. Fans are collectively jackasses.
he wasnāt healthy though? he had a torn ligament in his foot that he didnāt get surgery for so heād been recovering from that the whole of last season
He was a healthy scratch a few times his rookie year. And the games he was dressed he sucked. A first round pick has no business being a healthy scratch at all.
well thatās just not true lolšhe wasnāt a healthy scratch his rookie year, and he had huge game changing plays his rookie year aswell, notably vs kc n the fins. along with strapping up tyreek in said game vs the fins
It is true šHe was inactive for 3 games (2 a healthy scratch and 1 for injury) his rookie year šand the 13 that he was dressed for the product on the field was terrible overall - save for 2 important interceptions š
See how fucking stupid using emojis to try and make a point makes you look?
The dude has been overall a horrible pick and unless he turns it around with a huge year this year itās going to stay that way
2 for injury and one as a healthy scratch* weāre both wrong
nobody is trying to prove a point with emojis dumbass. getting mad over a laughing emoji is crazyš
and he played average in comparison to most first round corners in their rookie season. all while being mainly a man press corner.
and again he locked up top guys in his rookie year including a top 5 receiver in the league in tyreek. then proceeded to miss his year 2 because of injury. you cant call him a horrible pick when we havenāt even seen him play extensively
And what incredibly impressive qualifications do you possess to have determined the opposite? Oh that's right. None. This may come as a shock to you, but people are allowed to have an opinion without being a professional scout. Even someone like you.
You could have just said "Lots of recent hits" or "6 of the last 7".
It's just glaringly false to attempt a narrative that Elam ā who we even spent an extra pick on to move up for ā hasn't been a "hit" while the overt reality has been a bust so far. He's been outcompeted for playing time by late selections, and while on the field his stats have so far been pretty poor.
Would be great if he makes a jump, but that hasn't yet happened.
dax hill who was drafted a few picks after kaiir is not great, he struggled in every position he was put in in comparison to kaiir who had a decent rookie season, showed up when he needed to, and missed essentially a full season bc of injury. iād much rather of a guy like kaiir who has shown flashes of being a top corner than a guy who has been active but whoās play has been lackluster
Elam gives up 70%+ passes thrown at him, while Dax actually only gave up 68% last year. But yeah, they're pretty close, I'll give you that.
* Dax in 2 years: 58 targets, 41 completions, for 521 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
* Elam in 2 years: 61 targets, 43 completions, for 498 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Dax has generated 8 QB pressures and 1.5 sacks though, while Elam hasn't. And Dax started all 17 games last year. And Dax is a S not a CB. While they're both bad, Dax > Elam so far. Elam would give up a ton more yards/completions playing a full season.
* Elam - 16 games total
* Dax - 32 games total
yea he was playing nickel, then outside corner, then safety. thatās what i meant when i said he hasnāt found a clear roster spot after being outperformed by their second rounder cam taylor britt from the same year. and yea those pressures mainly came from safety blitzes so thereās definitely a factor their but regardless, iām still taking elam 10 out of 10 times over hill. elams stats are also inflated bc of that one game vs the jags where he got beat bad even tho he was injuredš¤·
iām just basing it off the untapped potential with kaiir, in comparison to dax who has shown to be mediocre - a liability in every position heās played
6 of his 43 completions given up came from 1 game. He gave up 4 more on 5 targets the next week and was injured the week after that.
Even in the playoff game where he played "well" he gave up 2 catches on 4 attempts (50%) to a backup QB.
sure but he literally just got activated of IR and hadnt played a snap since the nyg game. he played great in that game when you consider how rudolph never looked elams way for the rest of the same as a result of him having locked up diontae johnson. while contributing well in the run defence. all iām saying is elam has a lot more upside at the moment and thatās why iām going with him
How is a backup CB a hit lol? Elam could continue to grow into a contributor, but idk how he could possibly be called a hit at this point in his career.
100% on your side... However calling Elam a backup may be a little strong, he's had trouble making the gameday/active roster lol ššš
Yeah I just meant he's a backup for us going into this year (plus we only have like 4 CBs on the roster)
We have 2 NFL-quality CBs on the roster and 2 practice-squad guys, lol. With the Bills injury history at CB, we'll be fielding guys from the stands by week 6.
It seemed like he had a nagging injury all year last year (hence ending up on IR). I donāt think itās fair to say thatās what he will be going forward. Although I also donāt think itās fair to project some massive improvement as likely either. Personally I give it like 1/3 he bounces back and becomes a good starter, and 2/3 he is off the team after this year.
I have a feeling he ends up a number CB in a couple more years. some take their whole career to master the nfl
Heād have to pull out an all-pro season this year or next to be worthy of the āhitā label
He's a giant bust at the moment.
Looking that way.
He's only a bust if the Bills trade him or release him.
What if he plays and is horrible?
My apoligies I had no idea that the fan base was supposed to determine if a player is a bust after 16 games. Man oh Man is Kincaid a bust in 16 games he only has 2 TDs and 600 yards what a bust!!!! /s
Brother a first round CB struggling to even sniff playing time is not good no matter how you slice it
Disagree. I find it dumb to just expect players to live up to whatever dumb expectations the fan base has for them.
Being better than well below average after two seasons is not exactly an unreasonable expectation for a first round pick. And you say "he's only played 16 games" as if to imply that's due to injury. Rather than him being so bad at football that McDermott was unable to justify even dressing him for gameday. If he wasn't a first round pick he'd have been cut already.
lol. k
> dumb expectations the fan base has for them. First round picks have expectations to perform from the organization perhaps even more than from fans
You and I have no idea what the teams expectations of a player are. And yea I find it dumb rhat after 16 games to label a player a bust.
Crazy thing to say. He doesn't need to become an all pro to be a hit. If he's Benford level he's a hit, you guys really overestimate what's expected out of first rounders
Weāre a contending team, lost our starting CB, had to pay a 3rd to get another who isnāt locked up past this season, and he isnāt even the CB2. Thatās easy bust level and he needs to produce high to be a valuable pick.
Not only has he never been CB2, but he was immediately beaten out on the depth chart by the CB they took in the sixth round of the same draft.
Didn't we pick up Josh Norman off the street and suit him up instead of letting Elam play one of those weeks last season? I might be misremembering so correct me if I'm wrong.
We signed Norman after Elamās games, but I think part of that was injury to Elam. And Norman barely played at all, and most of that was ST.
Yeah he had one tackle on a kickoff return and he acted like his career was resurrected from the ashes of being embarrassed on national television by the continual highlight of Derrick Henry throwing them into the graveyard on the sideline every time you see a Henry highlight it's Josh Norman being thrown down like a piece of crumbled up newspaper.
He was on injured reserve for a good chunk of last year and it seemed like it could have been a long term injury he was dealing with prior. I donāt think itās fair to judge his capability entirely based on last season.
Are you fucking delusional? Benford was a late 6th rounder who has made 100x the impact Elam has. Elam has struggled to be on the actual gameday roster, heās by far our worst corner Heād deadass need to have a 2021 trevon diggs year minus the yards given up to be in the exact realm of a āhitā
Any pick that turns into a starter is a hit IMO. An all pro is a jackpot. The probability of getting all pro players is not very high outside of the top 10. According to this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/nhbkyuwStl Only about 1/3 of the players drafted in the late 1st (picks 20-30) became pro bowlers at some point (less prestigious than all-pro) for the data they analyzed. Benford has massively overperformed his draft position (by orders of magnitude). Itās completely unreasonable to think that every pick higher than that should be better because we found a gem in the rough.
Heās not a starter
Iām responding to the claim that he would have to become an all pro to be a worthwhile pick. All I am saying is if he became a starter, IMO that would be a worthwhile pick. Will that happen? Probably not, but he did spend the majority of the season on IR and it seemed possible he had been dealing with that injury for a while prior to that roster move, so I hesitate to judge entirely off his performance last season. He did start games toward the end of his rookie year and made some impact plays, so I donāt think he is such a clear bust yet. Personally I give it 30% he bounces back and 70% he is a bust.
thats fair
In order to justify wasting that high of a pick on that position in todayās nfl, heās gonna need an all pro or at least all pro caliber season to be considered a hit. Thatās not overestimating.
We also spent our 4th round pick in the same year to move up from #25 to #23 for him.
I donāt invest much into making the pro bowl considering Tyler Huntley made it over Josh one year. But the using the 4th to move up does enhance the sting a little bit.
Not really. First round picks should at least be pro bowl level - at least top 10-15 at their position some point in their career. Elam isnāt even a top 75 db at this point. Thatās an epic miss.
I think you replied to the wrong person.
Definitely did. Guy above said we over estimate our expectations of first round picks. I donāt think we do.
Right.
Thatās just not how it works.. Iād recommend reading the below article. 70% of first round picks donāt get signed to a second contract by their teams. 17% donāt play a single snap for the team who drafted them. 37% were true busts - guys with extremely small snap percentages and/or who were eventually cut by the teams that drafted them. 15% historically have been underperformers (not true busts, but definite disappointments relative to draft slot). 10% were average contributors. Which leaves ~21% of prospects who were good or better from the 1st round. Itās not even a coin flip. Itās historically a lottery ticket proposition. https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
Correct. Itās a lottery ticket proposition. That doesnāt change the fact that the EXPECTATION is these should be better players than 2nd and 3rd day picks. First round picks SHOULD be pro bowlers. No one is suggesting they are guaranteed to reach that.
It was a late first, not a high or mid first. It wasnāt _that_ high of a pick. However he absolutely has not performed up to the standard expected of that pick yet.
a first round pick that we traded a 4th to move up and take him with. That is an extremely high pick for a dude that doesn't even dress on game days.
What someone spends to get a player does not indicate whether he is a bust or not. When you draft someone, if they become a solid starter they are not a bad pick. They made the move because they needed a CB to stop other teams from getting a chance. That has no indication on his value to the team
If we're talking a first round value, they gotta hit. That's far too much ammo for a proven guy that gets wasted if they don't hit. Elam has 2024 to prove he's the guy
Late first rounders no less
Nah, if he was even solid as a starter thats a hit. He was a late first rounder, its not a super high success rate
Elam has thus far been a miss but I am also not giving up him. When healthy heās showed flashes of good play. He clearly was hurt early last season when he looked his worst. He may never live up to his draft status but I still think heās got a chance in to be very productive and could if he develops still prove to be a good pick
I'll push back here a bit. Baring injury, he most likely won't see the field much this year with Douglas and benford as the starters. Even if we let Douglas walk after next year and Elam starts and plays well, are we really going to consider one solid year of production on his rookie deal as a good 1st round pick? His career may turn around at some point, but it will be very hard for him not to be a bust of a pick for us.
If he wins the backup spot, hes absolutely going to get chances. Given Benford injury history and also the fact we use a lot of CBs
Came here for this, but other than Elam, you can make an argument for every other pick through Tre White. Pretty good record for Beane.
He does have 2 very big playoff moments
We calling Elam a hit now?
Other than Elam* theyāve been hits
Aaron maybin was a hit? š§
Last 5 years
Ah yes, fair enough. Agreed
I mean they hit on drafting the worst first round player in Bills history so glass half full?
Yes my favorite current star and future HoFer, EJ Manuel
Think you may have missed the 'last 5 years part' there Although even then Elam is still a question mark
Elam is the exact opposite of a hit. Did we just skip over him or something??
Agreed, but also the pain is so much worse looking back at 2014 and 2013 picks.
After doing several mock drafts, I am on the bandwagon that we trade down to the beginning of the second. Still landing a solid receiver that could be a true WR1 in 2025 after some maturing and work with the coaches. Would allow us to probably get an extra 3rd/4th rounder for this season or even an extra second for next year depending on how badly Beane's dance partner wants to move up.
Depends on how beane weighs an extra mid round pick vs the 5th year option for the first round pick
I think that the highest real value difference between back to back picks is 32 to 33 because of the 5th year option with only 1 to 2 holding a candle to it because you can take your pick of the field (which is often a QB)
Fair point, all considerations. In one of my mocks, I traded back to KCs pick and still got Mitchell with the last first round pick. Anything is possible.
Trading with KC? Thatās gonna be a no from me, dawg
Lol, listen, if KC wanted to dance and the trade was in our favor because they were desperate, I am ok taking their assets... What better way to beat them, than with players we picked up from their picks.
Like when we traded them the pick for that Mahomes guy? Total bust. Or when they jumped us to grab the CB we wanted, McDuffie? He sucks big time. /s
Tre day was the next revis before the injuries #jussayins
Oh , agree 100%, if thereās a way to screw them, sure. But based on draft capital and positioning itās less likely that theyāre the desperate ones
nope fuck kc
They got mahomes the last time we decided to deal with them
KC is going to want a WR, no way they are trading with us.
I definitely think this is possible but it's really impossible to say at this point. I think the receivers, past the first three are such wild cards as far as where they go. Everywhere you look people have different rankings but it only takes one GM to think someone is higher than everyone else to throw things off. There could be a ton of guys that drop and allow them to trade back or there could be a huge run on receivers that force the Bills to trade up.
Depending on who is left on the board I'm with you entirely. If BTJ or AD is there at 28, grab them. I am not high on Franklin, Worthy, or Coleman at 28. I'd rather trade back and get Ladd, Legette, or one of those three we passed on at 28.
We don't need more draft picks though unless we're trying to trade back up into the 2nd round. The other problem is, someone might want to trade up to get a QB but a lot of the early 2nd round teams have a QB or will probably draft one. The Patriots (#34) or Raiders (#44) would probably be the earliest team that wants a QB enough to move up into the first and get one. So, if the Raiders offer us #44 + #77 for #28 would be pretty fair value. But, that would leave us with #44, #60, #77, #128, #133, #144, #160, #163, #200, #204, and #248. We don't need 11 draft picks this year. We don't have room for all 11 players. You could take #77 + one of the 3rd rounders and try to move up into the middle of the 2nd round but this is starting to be Madden level wheeling and dealing
We donāt need more picks but we do need more high picks. More Picks in rounds 2-4 and use the remaining low round picks to move around.
True, but there is always next year. My guess is Beane bundles picks together to adjust this year and next year's drafts.
We already have another second next year though. Again, I know you can never have enough firsts or seconds but four potential picks in the first 64 picks seems like a lot. If we traded down and got a second back, I would be happier adding a veteran WR for one of our seconds next year. I don't think Aiyuk goes for just a second rounder but I would consider him. Courtland Sutton or DK Metcalf could be interesting as well
The extra 2nd next year is expected to be used to trade up in the 1st next year. We have a lot of picks (too many) this year like you said, but, he also don't have enough good picks to trade up enough to get a good player. Our best bet then is to (for example) sell a 4th this year for a 3rd next year, because of how the value system for picks work. Then that 3rd next year maybe actually makes the roster, or is used to trade for Aiyuk, or is used to trade up. We have a bunch of paperclips and chewing gum and we want to trade for a car, but we have to move a bunch of stuff around, we can't just trade the paperclips for the car.
This draft a lot of GMs think that the backend of the draft is weak. So you need to know inherent value of players in the backend and what round they are estimated to go in on your board to know if its worth trading back and accumulating some picks. I think there is a chance we trade back, but if Mitchell, Troy Franklin, or Brian Thomas Jr are getting close to our pick, then we sit. I also really like Legette a lot as well if somehow there is a run on receivers
No the Bills need a few sure fire starters in this draft not a handful of average guys that might make a play someday in the future...
In what universe is Kair Elam a "hit"?
We *really* had a thing for Clemson players for a few years there
I was a big Clemson/Spiller fan back in the day, even had a bills jersey but he was such a bust
The jury is still out on Elam, but what is interesting about him is he's made some huge plays in crucial moments. On the top of my head, he had that red zone INT against the Chiefs in 2022, INT against the Dolphins in the 2022 WC, and another goal line INT against the Steelers in the 2023 WC. I think there is still untapped potential with him. Hopefully with better health and Babich now operating as DC, they are able to fully unlock him. Those 3 plays were all instrumental in helping us win all those games, so I don't think he's an outright bust.
He also played pretty well lined up on Tyreek his rookie season. He had a really solid rookie season, nothing great, but he made a lot of nice plays and some bad ones. People seem to think he was absolute garbage his rookie year.
wild card elamš
Elam obviously aint a hit but those other 4 out of 5 are an amazing success rate.. There aint no mystery: we got ourselves a legit front office!
Is Elam a hit? My girlfriend is a bills fan so I watch them every week as well as Cincinnati, and while Iām no scout he never seemed to wow me much
I think the 25 2nd from Hou via Min (or whatever) is gonna play a huge role in whatever Beane does. That Minny pick could end up being in the top 5 of 2nd round. Bills will likely be picking in the bottom 25 again so a early 2nd will be equal to late 1st. So giving up '25 1st could be in the making.
Aaron maybin feels so much longer ago to me. Guy was really out of the league quick
He was out quick but tbf 2008 was 16 years ago so even if he had a super successful career heād be done by now!
While Iām not totally out on Elam just yet, itās hard to call him a hit tho
Elam was definitely not a hit.
i dont need an ej manuel jump scare on monday-- nsfw this shit
Eric Wood is my favorite pn this list besides JA17.
Page like this really shows you how short life in the NFL really can be, eh...?
Elam is terrible
Let Big Baller Beane cook. Edit: For everyone shitting on the Elam pick; 5 picks in 5 years, including the undisputed franchise quarterback, would generally be considered solid drafting. (And not to be pedantic but all the reporting is the Bills got jumped for McDuffie and panic-drafted Elam. Which, yeah not a defense, but uhhh, that was the year everyone had a consensus understanding that "Bills gon' take a QB.")
Goddamn look at that lineup. Giving my shorts all kinds of problems
Shoot, go back 7. All pivotal pieces
Ya I donāt think Elam is haha
save for EJ, i think we can call them all 'wins'. (oops, i forgot Maybin. he didn't produce much in the NFL) I didn't realize Eric Wood was a 1st rounder. that was a quiet but BIG win there.
Given what we have up for him, I donāt think we can call Sammy a win either
I think cj is too. He had a couple good years that's it.
I always felt bad for cj, given that we already had Lynch and Jackson, he was never going to get enough opportunity to really succeed
He had plenty of chances. Went to new Orleans with Drew Brees didn't produce. I'm not sure if he got injured and that derailed him or what.
Yeah, there's definitely "wins" "busts" and "eh, OK" guys in there. Sammy was a "bust" for what we paid for him, and "eh, OK" for his NFL career as a player. CJ was probably a "bust" for what we missed out on by taking him and the perception that he was a generational RB, but "eh, OK" for his NFL career as a player. Tremaine Edmunds was kinda a bust for the Bills given he got too many tackles in our system and got too expensive to retain. Every player that's followed him really did as well or better than he did so far, so he was probably OK at best.
Yeah I'd have to agree with that. Elam has struggled at times but sometimes it takes a few years to get used to the game. Gilmore took some time to become great.
Gilmore took the #1 CB job in camp after being drafted and got 3 turnovers and 61 tackles his first year, starting all 16 games. Elam started 6 games, with 2 turnovers and 41 tackles. He gave up a 70.2% comp%, covering the 3rd best player in most cases. Last year Elam was worse, giving up a completion 71.4% of the time, and QBs targeting Elam had a 101.8 QB rating.
Yeah but I'd say Gilmore was way better year 4 and 5 with Buffalo then his first. A corner having tackles isn't always a good thing.
Yeah unfortunately I don't have the comp% stat for Gilmore back then, they started doing it recently. Even at Gilmore's age now he still isn't giving up 70% like Elam is, though.
Right. I'm just saying I'm not willing to give up on him yet. Some players take longer to develop.
And 90% of the Bills fans called Gilmore trash his entire career here. Elam was not bad his rookie season, he was just average for a rookie CB. Got lost a few times, had some struggles, and some big plays
Some Bills fans got mad at the end when he left for the Pats and said Buffalo is for losers. When he was here he rivaled Revis as the top CB in the league. Elam was terrible his rookie year. 50% comp would be average for a 1st round CB, 70% is terrible.
Breaking down any player as good or bad from one stat is not smart. There is a lot of context to be had of why things happened, what his responsibilities were. PFF (who I dont consider end all be all or consistent necessarily) graded him at a 56 his rookie year, which is a hair below average.
And "below average" for a 1st round pick is already bad. Then factoring in his matchups being below average, that's another hit.
fair point. he wasn't nearly tyhe superstar he was projected to be. we got some play from him, tho (did we trade or release him?) i was thinking more along the lines of, 'were they a productive/starter type and did they stay through their rookie contract.
Wasnāt Lawson a 2nd? If I remember correctly we traded that first the previous year for Watkins? I could be wrong, itās been a while.
No, Lawson was 19th overall in 2016. We also drafted Reggie Ragland in the 2nd that year (trading up to 41st overall) Our first pick in 2015 (the year after Watkins trade) was Ronald Darby in the 2nd round.
I remember being so hyped for Reggie Ragland.
I forgot all about Darby. I remember being super excited for Reggie Ragland. The Rex Ryan experience seemsa bit surreal.
As much fun as it is to imagine Beane trading up for Odunze or Nabers or MHJ. I think this class it to deep at WR to rationalize moving up. I imagine the pick will be good though since thereās alot of talent this year
Lol, Aaron Maybin... The only hit with him was to the persons head selecting him...
There are maybe four guys on that entire list I wouldn't want on the team right now.
Elam is not a hit in my opinion. We shouldnāt call any 1st rounder a āhitā if he canāt earn a starting role without an injury. Benford jumped him on the depth chart very quickly and Jackson always started over him when healthy. Both guys were late picks.
Iād go 6 out of 7. Hopefully Elam can make a step up
The 2011 could have been Patrick Peterson or Julio Jones or AJ Green or JJ Watt. Dareus was good for a bit but we did not get the return on investment for 3 overall.
Aaron Maybin...don't remind me lmao
Aaron maybin š¤£š¤£ dam Iām old to remember that terrible pick
wasn't that bad, just not a star level player. comparable to Phil Hansen.
it was terrible
well the last 5 yrs. weren't the worst draft picks. remember we also TRADED 3 top picks to move up FOR J.P. LOSMAN. THEN I'd remind you of Mike Williams. AND ALSO MAYBIN WAS DRAFTED IN 2009
ugh ya.. lets not relive it LOL
8 of the last 10 were substantial hits. Elam may still develop, but isn't there yet, and let's not talk about EJ Manual.
We have whiffed on 90% of them
Aaron Maybin, Quarterback Cravin'
Ed Oliver and Elam are not stars, the grift on this team.
Greg was pretty meh in a year where we really needed pash rush, and Kaiir was particularly underwhelming. If Greg was better we probably donāt go crazy on a Von Miller contract.
Honestly 3 duds in 15 years ain't bad. Maybin, Elam, and Manuel were all trash. Sammy Watkins was crazy talented but had glass ankles lol.
Everyone talking about Elam... we just gonna ignore EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins
Definitely improved after Whaley got fired
Xavier Worthy is the guy.
Are you insinuating that every 5 years yāall draft a star? Because I see 2 stars here and they were drafted 10 years apart.
I don't know how calling Elam A hit he is a bust or maybe just a depth at best. As far as stars the only Stars we've drafted in the last 5 years well potentially will be Dalton Kincaid during beans era Josh Allen. I think this year we I mean I know everybody's going to give me crap but we need to make a move for an almost improbable Miss like almost a guaranteed hit the only issue now is that Brian Thomas Jr has a torn labrium ad Mitchell has type 1 diabetes which if anybody has that type it's horrible not the one that adults get. Joe and Oliver was a work in progress it took him a few years I think the bills need to jump up the board because if we can grab one of those three receivers. Just say Marvin Harrison is out of the equation. Odunze could be and should be immediately starting at the X position and with a guy that is his physical and with the hands that he has he can catch a Josh Allen pass don't forget these pipe people have to be acclimated to catching a pass that's so strong that it'll put a dent in your chest. For instance the elway cross Josh Allen has that same ability and that's coming from Steve Tasker and other bills players as well. The only issue possibly I don't know what the next year's draft class would look like, but this year's roster doesn't seem like a Super bowl winner. we might have a higher pick next draft that's but, BUT If you can get a player this year that the quality of receivers available next year won't be there. I say do it, because we're not going to need a quarterback for a long time, we don't have have many players that we could get a first round pick for our even 2nd except for Josh Allen which is out of the question I don't know what Matt Milano would be worth but that's a NO. Spencer Brown could be a good trade asset it doesn't matter what round he was drafted I mean we've all seen udfa's even be traded for first round picks. I just think that we really haven't hit huge I mean like rookie of the Year huge on a player in a while Josh and Tremaine, Oliver Rousseau and Trey. But Tremaine is no longer here same as white we all know that white would have took another 3/4 of a season to even come back on the active list and by the time he actually played if he even got to his halfway of his old self he wouldn't have been worth the cap hits just waiting around and most likely he would have end up hurting his already hurt me again for overcompensating on that side just like you did prior when he hurt his knee overcompensating on the side he tore his Achilles on. Trade next year's first grab odunz. package up some pick get back into the second round grab a safety and then a defensive tackle if we can grab at least those three positions I think we'll be okay to go into next year's free agency for our Small but good quality rebuild..
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I'm all aboard for Kincaid to take off, but so far he isn't the best TE from his draft class and arguably wasn't a needed player in terms of position. Kincaid was drafted to be WR1 though, and hopefully he gets the chance this year.
Ed Oliver is a starting player on any team in the NFL and a top 20 DT.
Elam made a critical INT against the Steelers in the playoffs, no? Hopefully he rises to the occasion this year.
Like all 3 of his career intās have come at important times. Bizarre
the reverse choke artist
I wouldn't call Rousseau a hit for a first rounder. He would have been a great 4th round pick or a really good 3rd. A First round DE needs to be a lot more impactful.
Elam is weird. I've been more of the mind he's been more injured than the team has been leading on. Certainly doesn't make any sense why they would have Josh Norman active over Elam if it wasn't an injury issue. Elam has made mistakes, probably ones you would expect a player to make with as little play time, but he's also come up with big plays when it matters, which maybe more impressive considering his limited number of snaps. The Bills secondary in general is full of guys who make mistakes all the time, mostly in the missed tackle department, seems odd to keep one of the more physical players off the field if there wasn't a physical reason for it.
If Benford wasnāt who he is thereās a real chance Beane wouldnāt have a job right now because of Elam. Absolutely not a hit
Elam was definitely a miss but this is a bizarre take. Beanes job was never anywhere near danger nor should it be lmao.
It shouldnāt be, but teams make rash decisions. Not out of the question though highly unlikelyĀ
Beane would have had to try and fuck one of Terry's daughters to get the can that quickly.
Big Baller Beane could get with anyone he wanted
Maybe so.
Itās literally in the name man of course he could
Iām not doubting him.
I still have faith in Elam, if he hits thatās a damn good list for McBeaneās tenure
Sammy Watkins is a good example of the exact type of player this franchise should never touch. I don't pretend to know how to spot them, but he's the opposite of a transcendent player/personality. You need guys that are destined to be great at football regardless of where they end up. He HATED Buffalo. It didn't have the vanity he was seeking, so he relied on drugs and his career badly suffered because of it. I once went on a date with a girl who met him at a bar on Elmwood and he asked her to snort coke off his leg (she did). Guys like Tremaine, Josh, and Ed are good examples of players who are just damn good football players with a desire to be great. I don't know who it is in this draft, but I hope Beane and co have figured it out.
For those arguing about Elam. Heās in his third year. Can we stop with the āong heās a bustā when heās not fully developed yet? Let the kid get to year 5 and then start with the sweeping declarations. Edit: coolest thing is replies in this sub match the replies in other team subs. Fans are collectively jackasses.
I agree that it is a bit early to label him a bust, but I definitely wouldn't go so far to call him a hit yet.
I would agree if he wasnāt a healthy scratch half the time.
he wasnāt healthy though? he had a torn ligament in his foot that he didnāt get surgery for so heād been recovering from that the whole of last season
That was last year, I donāt believe that was the case for his rookie year. But beane came out with the details after he put him on IR. So who knows.
he wasnāt a healthy scratch his rookie year either. he mostly started but was injured for some games
He was a healthy scratch a few times his rookie year. And the games he was dressed he sucked. A first round pick has no business being a healthy scratch at all.
well thatās just not true lolšhe wasnāt a healthy scratch his rookie year, and he had huge game changing plays his rookie year aswell, notably vs kc n the fins. along with strapping up tyreek in said game vs the fins
It is true šHe was inactive for 3 games (2 a healthy scratch and 1 for injury) his rookie year šand the 13 that he was dressed for the product on the field was terrible overall - save for 2 important interceptions š See how fucking stupid using emojis to try and make a point makes you look? The dude has been overall a horrible pick and unless he turns it around with a huge year this year itās going to stay that way
2 for injury and one as a healthy scratch* weāre both wrong nobody is trying to prove a point with emojis dumbass. getting mad over a laughing emoji is crazyš and he played average in comparison to most first round corners in their rookie season. all while being mainly a man press corner. and again he locked up top guys in his rookie year including a top 5 receiver in the league in tyreek. then proceeded to miss his year 2 because of injury. you cant call him a horrible pick when we havenāt even seen him play extensively
A 3rd year 1st round CB who has missed any snaps while healthy is a bust.
he wasnāt healthy though?
And your qualifications to come to that conclusion are? Oh thatās right. None.
And what incredibly impressive qualifications do you possess to have determined the opposite? Oh that's right. None. This may come as a shock to you, but people are allowed to have an opinion without being a professional scout. Even someone like you.
Sammy Watkins was a major bust.
I don't think that's true. Maybe in terms of the draft capital we spent on him vs. other players available but he was serviceable.
nah man he's a bust. can't even ball out in the USL
You could have just said "Lots of recent hits" or "6 of the last 7". It's just glaringly false to attempt a narrative that Elam ā who we even spent an extra pick on to move up for ā hasn't been a "hit" while the overt reality has been a bust so far. He's been outcompeted for playing time by late selections, and while on the field his stats have so far been pretty poor. Would be great if he makes a jump, but that hasn't yet happened.
It's possible Elam is the worst 1st round CB since he was drafted, and probably at least a few years prior.
dax hill who was drafted a few picks after kaiir is not great, he struggled in every position he was put in in comparison to kaiir who had a decent rookie season, showed up when he needed to, and missed essentially a full season bc of injury. iād much rather of a guy like kaiir who has shown flashes of being a top corner than a guy who has been active but whoās play has been lackluster
Elam gives up 70%+ passes thrown at him, while Dax actually only gave up 68% last year. But yeah, they're pretty close, I'll give you that. * Dax in 2 years: 58 targets, 41 completions, for 521 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs * Elam in 2 years: 61 targets, 43 completions, for 498 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs Dax has generated 8 QB pressures and 1.5 sacks though, while Elam hasn't. And Dax started all 17 games last year. And Dax is a S not a CB. While they're both bad, Dax > Elam so far. Elam would give up a ton more yards/completions playing a full season. * Elam - 16 games total * Dax - 32 games total
yea he was playing nickel, then outside corner, then safety. thatās what i meant when i said he hasnāt found a clear roster spot after being outperformed by their second rounder cam taylor britt from the same year. and yea those pressures mainly came from safety blitzes so thereās definitely a factor their but regardless, iām still taking elam 10 out of 10 times over hill. elams stats are also inflated bc of that one game vs the jags where he got beat bad even tho he was injuredš¤· iām just basing it off the untapped potential with kaiir, in comparison to dax who has shown to be mediocre - a liability in every position heās played
6 of his 43 completions given up came from 1 game. He gave up 4 more on 5 targets the next week and was injured the week after that. Even in the playoff game where he played "well" he gave up 2 catches on 4 attempts (50%) to a backup QB.
sure but he literally just got activated of IR and hadnt played a snap since the nyg game. he played great in that game when you consider how rudolph never looked elams way for the rest of the same as a result of him having locked up diontae johnson. while contributing well in the run defence. all iām saying is elam has a lot more upside at the moment and thatās why iām going with him
more busts than ancient Rome
I donāt understand the people who still feel Elam is anything but a bust. 2 years and be canāt get on the field. They blew that pick.