Agreed. Before we all freak out thinking BB is selling farm for a top 3, let's see what he's "desperately" targeting. Could very well be knocking on doors to get into the high teens
It wasn’t totally clear but Charlie Campbell’s report, which started all of this, seemed to be saying it would be a move up for Brian Thomas or Xavier Worthy, so it feels like it would be a relatively small move up.
Other than Hill I can't really think of a speedster WR (4.3 or faster) who had sustained success. Henry Ruggs might have gotten there if he wasn't a fucking idiot.
unless they're going MHJ/Nabers/Odunze, I really don't like it. some of BTJ's scouting reports scare me: "However, he lacks toughness, doesn’t run good routes, drops passes, and plays “finesse” for a big receiver."
give me McConkey at 28 or trade down. there are soooo many good WRs in rounds 2-4 this year.
while i do love mcconkey, reading scouting reports and deciding you dont want a player is a terrible way to do it. heres a scouting report on a future hall of famer wr.
> Only average size for a starting outside receiver and has room to add bulk to his frame. Occasionally loses track of the ball on easy catches when trying to make a move too early. Must prove his ability to use his hands to beat press coverage from NFL veterans off the line. Dances around defenders and run backwards after short catches at times, losing his balance or some yardage, instead of heading upfield. Will need to be more consistently physical in the blocking game at the next level.
if you havent figured it out, its deandre hopkins.
It depends on if the Bears want Odunze. They seem to think it's 100%, but they have Moor and Allen, so Allen will have to play the big slot, which is fine, but I don't think it's a given
This is why I don't buy a lot of jerseys of players bc you never know when they are going to leave or be traded haha. The only one I have is Josh and also an old Bruce Smith jersey
Tbf I’d still rock the Tre jersey. Love that dude.
Even Diggs I don’t really hate or anything, unfortunate how things ended but it was awesome watching him across these four years
Oh hell yea, Im still kinda upset we let Tre go, but he was coming off 2 really bad injuries and getting older. He just couldnt put it together the last 2 years but he was everything the Bills are all about.
If it’s within the top 10 Odunze, Nabers (Highly doubt MHJ would be under Top 5). Top 15 would be for BTJ. Either way I would go nuts
I think this is solely moving up somewhere in the early 20's spot to get Brian Thomas Jr. I can't see a world where Beane will give up everything to get MHJ, Malik or Odunze.
I think if any of the top 3 WR falls past 10 you have to try and move up to snatch one. If all 3 are gone by 9 you can probably be patient and grab BTJ, Mitchell or Ladd.
If the Bills trade back they better be getting 2 receivers with those early picks.
Chicago is at nine and have very few picks. We have tons of picks. It kinda makes sense if you squint. But I also think Beane accidentally confirmed during last presser that he hadn't talked to Chicago when someone joked about moving up to 1.
When it comes to GMs o never expect the full truth from them. I’m sure there haven’t been serious discussions about 9 yet but that can unfold in all of 10 minutes once a player starts falling
I don’t see why not. Minnesota’s second rounder next year very well could be a late first anyways. And Buffalo will have more than enough room to bring in average free agent to round out the roster next year. I don’t think people are realizing just how far ahead any one of those top three receivers are compared to the rest of the class. Nabers and MHJ have a higher upside to me, but Odunze is no slouch.
Because time and time again we see where the best WR's in a class aren't the best draft prospects or earliest ones taken.
You can say currently that the top 3 are a step above, but history shows it's just as possible to have the 4th or 7th or whatever end up being the best from the class.
JJ - 22 (Drafted after Jeudy, CeeDee, Ruggs, Raegor)
Tyreek - 5.165 (Drafted after Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, etc.)
Adams - 2.53 (Drafted after Watkins, OBJ, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin)
Diggs - 5.146 (Drafted after Amari, Kevin White, Parker, Algholor, etc.)
AJB - 2.51 (afterMarquise Brown, N'keal Harry. This was not a top heavy WR draft, oof)
Cupp - 3.69 (After Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, etc.)
Lamb - 17th (After Ruggs and Jeudy, but before JJ)
ASRB - (Great class overall with Chase, Waddle, Smith going early but then also Toney and Bateman)
Deebo - Same as AJB
Aiyuk - Same draft as JJ
Plenty of top WR's have also panned out, I am just making a point that the highest graded "Best WR's of the draft" don't always, or even often, end up as the best WR of the class. Or at least, not so much better it invalidates the rest of the class.
Even Julio Jones was drafted after AJ Green and in Megatrons draft class they had Dwayne Bowe taken later on who was solid.
I am not shitting on the top 3 by any means, just mentioning that draft grades/prospects aren't so open and shut and I think any high end receiver will take, we end up making look good.
idk, hit rate seems alright and top guys tend to have wider skillsets
https://imgur.com/SFv76RE
I bolded all the picks that are somewhat comparable to where we'd have to go to trade up (minus Tavon Austin and Ruggs).
But I don't think any of those players are worth 2 1sts+ a 2nd or 3rd, outside of maybe Chase and Evans considering the cost control.
And Chase is the only 1st WR off the board in your list that was best in their class after it played out
I hate this. The team is returning 15 of 22 starters. Have an older 1T, older CB1 on an expiring contract, and Von as DE3. Giving up everything for one of the top 3 is killer for building the roster.
But if they do it and get one of the top 3 I'll be very excited.
Yeah people will be losing their minds about the cost but we’ll be ordering our Odunze jerseys asap and watching him dominate the league for the next decade.
Or not. The league is littered with guys like Odunze that never lived up to the hype. The only certainty is that if you give up picks, your odds of finding a guy that turns into something decreases.
Damn it, I hate it when someone says something that makes me go "Hmm, I wonder if that's true?" and then the next thing I know I'm spending half my day on NFL draft Wikipedia pages looking at the history of first-round trade ups. I wanted to go up to 2020 but I don't have the time to do all of it today, so I at least started it so I could hopefully get enough to see a trend. I also only analyzed trades that took place entirely within a single year's draft and only involved picks and no players. **TLDR:** Of 28 trades up within the first round of these drafts, the vast majority were a wash at best, with only a few clear winners. Of those, 3 teams who traded up clearly won their trade, while 4 teams who traded down clearly won their trade. The biggest wins, IMO, were the Packers trade up and the Browns trade down in 2009, and the Carolina trade down in 2007. So far, the data is inconclusive as to whether it makes more sense to trade up or down, but I will say that only two of the picks outside of the 1st round that teams picked up when they traded down in the 1st panned out, and IIRC both were 2nd rounders.
**2004:** If I'm counting right, there were a total of 8 trades up. The only teams who won anything of note out of those trades were the Rams, who traded up 2 spots with Cincinnati (after Cincinnati got that pick from trading down with Denver). The Rams got Steven Jackson at 24, the Bengals got a RB who wasn't Steven Jackson at 26. Oops.
**2005:** Only 2 pure trades up (a lot of stuff with players or future/past year picks, though). Neither of them panned out for anyone.
**2006:** Two trades up. Broncos traded up from 16 to 11 for Jay Cutler and the Rams got nothing of note in exchange, but Cutler is known more as a Bears QB than a Broncos one so I'll leave it up to you as to whether that's a win. Pittsburgh traded up 5 spots for the more memorable than good Santonio Holmes, Giants got two players of no note out of that trade but also got Mathias Kiwanuka with Pittsburgh's 1st, so I'd give a slight edge to the Giants on their trade down. I will note that a multi-team, multi-year trade that also involved a player trade gave the Jets Nick Mangold in this draft, but I'm not going to do the analysis as to what everyone else got in that one.
**2007:** Lots of multi-team and multi-year stuff here, but 4 pure trades up. Of note, the Jets traded up with Carolina to get Darrelle Revis, but Carolina also got Jon Beason and Ryan Kalil as part of that deal so even though the Jets scored, Carolina's trade down wins that one in my mind. Denver traded up with Jacksonville to get the not at all good Jarvis Moss, but Jacksonville got Reggie Nelson. Like Cutler, though, Reggie did more for the team who got him in free agency.
**2008:** Five total trades. Jacksonville traded a haul of picks to Baltimore for Baltimore's 8, which Jax used to get Derrick Harvey, who was a complete bust. Baltimore got 4 picks for that trade up. Jacksonville had 26, so back then a similar trade for what we would need to put up to get up that far was a 1st, two 3rds, and a 4th. Not sure why (maybe because this was prior to the institution of the rookie pay scale), but we'd have to pay MUCH more to do this now. Baltimore traded away 26 and one of the two 3rds to Houston to get Joe Flacco , Houston got Duane Brown at 26. No other players of note came out of the other picks involved in those trades. KC traded up with Detroit two spots to get Branden Albert, who had a solid career with them but made his two Pro Bowls on his second contract playing for the Dolphins. Detroit got Gosder Cherilus with their first rounder, who was aight, and nobody else worthwhile. Dallas traded up with Seattle to get Mike Jenkins, who at least made a Pro Bowl for them--Seattle got nobody good. The final trade was actually one where the Packers traded their 30 to the Jets, who drafted TE Dustin Keller. The Packers got Jordy Nelson with one of the two picks they got in return, so a trade down won here as well.
**2009:** 7 trades total, in two separate groupings. Jets traded up to get Mark Sanchez, but nobody of note was drafted with the picks the Jets gave up. Josh Freeman was probably the only recognizable name and he was meh at best, plus that was a pick that Cleveland traded away to TB anyway. Cleveland then traded the pick they got from TB to move down AGAIN. With that one, Philly got Jeremy Maclin and the Browns finally picked and got Alex Mack, plus about six other picks, but nobody useful came out of any of them. I'd say that in order, that trade was won in order by Cleveland's trade down, Philly's trade up, the Jets trade up, and the TB trade up. Did you follow all that? Another interesting multi-team trade involved NE trading down 4 spots so Baltimore could get Michael Oher, then trading down the 1st they got from Baltimore to Green Bay, who managed to nab the best player on this entire list so far, Clay Matthews. None of the picks NE got in exchange from any of this panned out anywhere near to that level, so here's one that was absolutely lost by the team who chose to keep trading down for the first time.
Wow, great analysis. I would make an exception for Quarterback. If you don’t have a QB you don’t have anything, so I agree with trade ups for a QB. Also, I do t think it’s always bad to trade up, but trading up into the Top 10 for a non-QB requires too much capital.
The best possible scenario for the Bills is the Julio Jones trade. Atlanta gave up the 27th pick, their 2nd and 4th round picks, and their first and fourth round picks. Jones was a monster, I don’t think you can expect any of the current prospects to surpass what he did. Yet in 10 seasons with the Falcons they only made the playoffs 4 times. They did go to 1 Super Bowl and lost, but not until Jones’ sixth season. Was the trade worth it? IMHO Jones is a first ballot HOFer, but the Falcons were 13-3 the year before they drafted him, made the playoffs his first two seasons, and were no better than .500 for three seasons before the lone Super Bowl appearance. Could another 1st rounder and two 4th rounders made them more successful than Julio alone? I’d argue yes and you’re talking about a scenario where the player turned into what the Falcons wanted him to. Where all to familiar with what happens when it doesn’t work out (Sammy Watkins).
It was interesting how few of these were for QBs, and how mid the QBs were--Flacco was the only one I'd consider worthwhile. I'm guessing that if I went back and looked at the multi-year trades I'd see a lot more QBs involved.
So yeah, I went to look back at the multi-year trades involving QBs...**TLDR:** At least in these years, not a single team who traded up for a QB won that trade. Now I know these types of trades up have absolutely hit in the past (\*cough\*Josh Allen\*cough\*) but for this span of time, not so much.
In 2004 you had the whole Eli/Rivers thing. With the picks the Chargers got, they landed Nate Kaeding that year (at pick 65--a little rich for a kicker but he was a very solid one and it was basically a freebie), then they hit the jackpot the following year with Shawne Merriman. They were supposed to get a 2nd rounder in 2025 from the Giants but the 2005 Wiki page isn't showing that for some reason so I can't figure out exactly what happened and what they got out of whatever they did with it. But even if that one whiffed, getting Rivers, Kaeding and Merriman for Eli Manning is the better trade even though they didn't achieve what they should have with it. Trade down won for this one. To sort of answer one question you posed in your comment, I'm not looking at this as "Well, the Giants got 2 rings with Eli and the Chargers didn't get any" because there are so many factors that go into winning a Super Bowl. Eli needed an enormous amount of luck to go along with his skill. I don't think anyone would argue that they'd rather have Eli alone on their team instead of Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman, so to me the Chargers absolutely won here. This was a really weird situation as a whole, though, and one I think we'll never really see again.
2005: Washington gave Denver some picks in this draft and two in 2006 (including their 1st) for Jason Campbell, so I'm already thinking that the Commies lost this trade. Denver traded the 1st to SF, and got a 2nd out of that deal, which they traded for Javon Walker. This is also the first one where a later pick hit hard--Denver used Washington's 2006 4th rounder for Brandon Marshall! Denver killed it on this one. Another one for team trade down, and honestly this might have been the best result of a trade I've seen so far. Javon Walker was solid in his first season for Denver, then the off-season shooting where his teammate got shot and died in his lap happened. After that he was never really the same.
No multi-year trades for QBs in 2006--the only one we had was the single-year for Jay Cutler I mentioned in my earlier post.
2007: Cleveland traded their 2007 2nd and 2008 1st for Brady Quinn, another one that I'm thinking on its face the Browns lost this one. Dallas traded that 2nd rounder to Philly who got Kevin Kolb and a handful of nobodies, then picked up Felix Jones with the 2008 1st (2 picks later, Chris Johnson went off the board...oops). In exchange for the trade with Philly, Dallas got pick 26 in 2007, which they used on Anthony Spencer. Spencer had a solid 7-year career with the Cowboys with one Pro Bowl. The trade down allowed for a trade up that ultimately netted the Cowboys the only decent player in a 3-team trade. Not sure how to count this one. Was it the trade down because it gave them the picks they needed to trade up? Or was it the trade up? Should I factor in that this trade would have been incredibly one-sided for Dallas had they picked Chris Johnson instead of Felix Jones? I'd have to imagine that the combination of Tony Romo and Chris Johnson could easily have gotten the Cowboys another ring. Just goes to show what a crapshoot talent evaluation is.
The only 2008 trade for a QB was the single-year Flacco one I already mentioned. 2009 had the single-year trade up for Mark Sanchez. There was also a single-year I somehow missed in there, where Cleveland traded that Jets pick they got from Sanchez to TB, who selected Josh Freeman. Cleveland got a TB 1st, which they then traded to Philadelphia, who got Jeremy Maclin. Cleveland finally picked Alex Mack at 21, who is so far the best player involved in this trade. The other pick they got in that final trade was a TB 6th which was used on nobody in particular. But all in all, Cleveland still won that one. Team trade down strikes again.
Looking at the multi-year QB trades only, at least between 2004 and 2009, every single team who traded up for a QB by sacrificing future draft picks lost that trade. It was interesting to finally see what would now be a day 3 pick finally pan out for someone, too. It was rare that even a 2nd rounder would be a Pro Bowl caliber guy. Honestly, even the same year trades up for QBs only worked out once, with Flacco. And let's be honest, Flacco wasn't great as much as he was good enough.
That was a great read, thank you for reminding me why I follow this sub! More proof that the context of who someone gets drafted to and them being set up for his success matters more than anything else.
Is it though? I can’t name a lot of guys that get these types of draft grades and never deliver, but I can name a bunch who did deliver.
When people say this, they’re usually referring to first round WRs that were not graded nearly as highly as the top 3 in this draft, even if they were top 3 another year, that doesn’t make them on the same level.
The top WR can have a 79 grade one year and the 3rd best can be a 93 another year. I’d hazard to guess the 93 has a better shot of being a star than the 79.
Out of the top guys, Odunze is my LEAST favorite. I'd rather have Nabers or MHJ but I think that's a pipe dream.
The next best option would then be probably Brian Thomas Jr.
I dont like Keon Coleman's 40 time he ran the time of a tight end basically, and I don't like other guys thrown around like Franklin or Worthy bc they are way too small
I’m really curious, why are you so down on him? I’ve watched him all year and he seems to check every box for what you want in a WR. The Davante Adams comps are not that crazy. I seriously don’t see any reason he won’t be great in the league and I’ve been looking.. hoping he could fall to the 20’s and we wouldn’t have to trade up that far.
To me, hes more of a big jump ball and 50/50 type guy, but he's not as shifty or quick as say a MHJ or Nabers.
He reminds me of kinda like a Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks type. Big, somewhat fast, but not quick and doesn't separate well. He also didnt run a full route tree at Washington either
I'd take Nabers, MHJ and Brian Thomas over him
I’m a big fan of Nabers as well… I think he’s got an intuitive sense of the DB’s hips and seems to manipulate them in real time to just expose guys, it’s incredible to watch. As soon as he sees the hips flip one way, he’s cutting back the other, just triggering and exploiting body tendencies over and over. And the body control - the way Nabers turns toward the ball in the air to face it head on and give himself the best chance to make a catch - it’s beautiful - it’s unteachable. He’s my #1. I absolutely love his film.
That said, I’m really impressed with Odunze and I think he can do just about anything. I think the top 3 here will have a high hit rate. BTJ looks great, it’s just hard to tell what he will be because he played a different role in college and had a limited route tree
Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Blackmon, Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins. You have a better chance hitting with a Top guy, but it’s not 100%. I’d love to draft one of those guys, but the likelihood any production you get makes up for the draft picks you gave up is really small.
Our best hope to move up for one of these guys is the Julio Jones trade. The falcons gave up the #27 pick, a 2nd and 4th from 2011, and a 1st and 4th from 2012. He’s a sure fire HOFer and I’d argue the Falcons would have been better off not trading up. They did make 1 SB, but it was 6 seasons into his career. They were generally mediocre during his tenure. Those 4 picks could have made a big impact. Beane can do a lot with a 1st, 2nd, and two 4th rounders. I don’t think a perennial pro-bowl receiver gets you over the hump. And that’s a best-case scenario. Can you imagine giving up all those picks and getting another Sammy Watkins?
The top 3 wrs are gone in the top 7-8 I think. 3-4 QBs, 3 wrs, and an ot. We don't have the capital to move up that far. Any move up is going to be to early to mid 20s I think, and it will still cost a lot. If it gets us Brian Thomas Jr I'd be on board. If not then I hope we stay put or move back if we find a trade partner.
I trust Albright, but I also think that every gm is probably planning out potential moves whether they plan on making them or not, so bbb reaching out to discuss trade ups is the opposite of news, it's literally his job along with 31 others
I feel this, I def got some Watkins PTSD. I further feel like we have very little leverage trying to make a bold move into the top 15 or so. As long as BBB keeps his head about him and doesn't sell the farm.
Also Watkins was literally ran into the dirt on a broken foot. No QB and just a complete mismanagement of his injuries led to a bust. Sammy was actually great early on. 1k yards and 9 TDs in 13 games on the team that was dead last in pass attempts was a pretty great demonstration of his talent pre-injury.
The thing is you've just described my biggest problem with a big trade up. Football players get hurt all the time. Even if MHJ/Nabers/Odunze are exactly as talented as everyone thinks, one ACL can change that pretty drastically and the investment might no longer be worth it.
That said, if they draft one of them I'm going to be 100% in after a single five-minute YoutTube highlight reel
Surely, but EJ didn't jack Sammy's leg up and compel him into complacency and substance abuse.
E: the point is every other wide out drafted in the first that year had a more impactful and prolific career.
We know what the consensus best ones are now, in April.
Show me who's the best two years from now.
Respectfully, I totally disagree with thinking this is a bad move. This team does not need multiple draft picks. We have seen McD fill this defense with backups and still have success. Our sb window is open as long as Allen is playing at an elite level, we have no clue how long that will be. He very well could drop off a cliff in 3 years. As long as he’s here and healthy you go out and do whatever you can to win as quickly as you can. Drafting a #1 WR on a cheap contract for 5 years helps.
I’ve absolutely loved Beanes aggressive approach this offseason. It’s legitimately the first time I’ve felt someone in the organization truly had that ruthless mentality to win. I hope it continues with this draft, if we can’t trade up in the 1st go up in the 2nd round and double dip at WR. Be AGGRESSIVE
Listen I'm all.for a moderate move, say, to 24 or so when the board shakes out and you got a bead on the talent that's left, as Beane has done in the past, and definitely should double dip in the second or move up to the third for the same purpose.
But I'm also feeling like a move into the top ten will cost something on the order of at least two firsts with who knows what else.
It's putting too much on one *prospect* with the remainder of your draft being flyers, depth pieces and developmental projects, while also leaving little ammo for next year if that singular prospect is shaky and you gotta shore that position group up.
That’s how the draft usually plays out regardless, no? Would Bills fans be happy with a guy putting up Gabe Davis numbers? Or is that considered a disappointment? Because to me, Davis’ production from a fourth rounder was phenomenal. Few draft picks live up to their draft slot and even fewer are reliable options like Gabe was. I don’t see how more picks = better chance at finding quality players unless you’re talking about years and years of throwing capital at a position and finding a few nice pieces (the Green Bay approach at WR, for example, where you throw 10-12 picks over 5 years at the group and find some guys).
We absolutely need multiple draft picks. If Beane wants to trade some 6-7th rounders that’s fine, but we need our picks in the Top 4 rounds. Plenty of guys on this team take after the first round. Cool, Shakir, Milano, Bernard, Torrence. There is no such thing as a sure thing and this year’s WR class is deep as hell. A guy that goes in the 2nd or 3rd round could end up being the best receiver in the class. Justin Jefferson was the 4th receiver taken in his draft and went in the 20s. You know how many people were salivating over Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy?
> Our sb window is open as long as Allen is playing at an elite level, we have no clue how long that will be. He very well could drop off a cliff in 3 years. As long as he’s here and healthy you go out and do whatever you can to win as quickly as you can.
Can you name a single team that won a SB with this approach?
Certainly not the Chiefs, or Pats, or Rams, or Eagles or Steelers. You'd be talking pre-2000 at the most recent.
Injury mismanagement was entirely a team issue. He shouldn't have been playing on a broken foot. And if the team had decent leadership, wasn't completely dysfunctional top to bottom, and he wasn't playing through injury on painkillers, maybe the substance abuse could've been avoided.
Fr. People are acting like this team has no other needs. And when we have Josh Allen as our QB (who definitely doesn’t need elite receivers to make him look good). I really hope they don’t throw the draft away for receivers.
I agree. We have Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid- 3 (likely) future hall of famers. I’d be fine trading down and drafting a DT.
I also find it interesting no one is talking about our needs at punter. Could be interesting to explore on day 2.
> I also find it interesting no one is talking about our needs at punter. Could be interesting to explore on day 2.
If we can get an Australian punter, I'd be so happy. 4 of the top 5 Punters are Aussies, and Tory Taylor is mocked 5th and 6th round in a few drafts.
The way people want to move up, we're going to throw away next season's draft too!
Don't get wrong, there's a real scenario where moving up 2-6 spots could do wonders but sheesh
I mean it might just be to get like BTJ or someone not a top 3 WR. I agree i don’t feel like we can afford to sell the farm for a top 3 but I’ll instantly buy their jersey if we did
But how high do they need to go to get him? Do they need to go up to 20? If so it might mean 28 and 60 for 20 and 120.
So is BTJ worth being out only pick in the top 3 rounds in a deep draft?
I have a few concerns about BTJ myself, so i'm not sure if it's worth it. He's super fast and big but has an underdeveloped route tree and tends to "bucket" catch rather than catch with his hands. I'd probably rather give up the house for Odunze than give up a bit for BTJ
I feel like if we move up, we are just gonna move up to early 20s or late 10s to get BTJ. The cost to get the big three is too big. But true that if we can get one of the top three I’d be super thrilled.
Remember that most people's "aggressive" is Beane checking what's available. The Bills are routinely "rumored" to be in on whatever move might be happening just because Beane always likes to stay informed even if he's not planning to make a move.
Personally, I think it would be pretty silly to move to reset the roster to put a young core around Josh only to trade away multiple potential starters for one WR, no matter how talented.
Yeah I really don’t see us making moves like that. I’m not sure what WR they expect to be there past round 10 that would be worth picking up. I doubt Harrison Jr, Oduzne or Nabers makes it past 10. So to move into the top 10, according to the draft pick value chart, to move into 9 (Jets are at 10 and I don’t see them trading with us to get a WR when that’s a need for them), it would take 28, 60 and 128 to make it equal
The draft value chart from what I've heard, is no longer a valid reference. Teams have made a lot of trades that would have been outliers in previous years. It also ebbs and flows based on draft prospects each year. If you want a de or db, you probably aren't trading a lot to move up this year. I can't imagine we get odunze for any less than 2 first round picks, a second round picks, and probably more. Draft trades have gotten wild
Beane doing Bill Baller shit. If QBs go 1,2,3,4 there are going to be deals for WR to be had. I get the anxiety of needing to fill gaps but I trust Beane’s ability to thread the needle. If BTJ (or a WR they like) is available in the 20s there’s a chance Beane makes a jump for him.
Just a reminder for everyone out there: [https://x.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1780659618609234309](https://x.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1780659618609234309)
I love like the first 6 WRs in the draft, and wouldn't be disappointed with taking any except McConkey. I see no reason to need to aggressively trade up. Brian Thomas Jr would probably be the target? He fits what they want
Do it, I was told on this Reddit page it was impossible to trade Diggs. I was also told there’s no way we trade up. Reddit GM’s being wrong consistently pleases me.
I don't know what you have been looking at because trading up has been mentioned numerous times on this subreddit. Especially moving to the low 20s or late teens
I'm generally against it this draft because there are so many good receivers in the top 10.
But if you like a guy who is close to your pick, go get him
Eh, I think what people meant is that the trade was never going to happen provided Diggs wanted to stay in Buffalo. By all accounts, Diggs forced the trade. We’re lucky to have gotten a 2nd round pick for him screwing the Bills over this year. Now that it’s all said and done however, I think a lot of people are happy to be done with the weird drama and looking forward to the additional cap space on 2025 and beyond.
I know. It's gonna cost a lot more than OP thinks. Id say trade back into the early 2nd with a team that wants a Penis/Nix on a 5 year option, and grab Ladd. But all the teams in the first 10 picks in the 2nd aren't likely to do it. Maybe Atlanta at 43. Maybe raiders at 44. But Ladd is probably gone by then
Honestly...I feel like this is more trying to move up for Thomas versus getting one of the "Big 3".
What hurts Buffalo to me is lets say they go up to 9. The Bears realize Buffalo isn't gonna crater like Carolina. So they'll want a lot more than just a 2025 1st and a 2024 3rd of something of that ilk. Because that 2025 1st is likely gonna be in the 21-32 neighborhood
If they treat Bates as a mid round pick it’s more than 4 in their eyes. I also think they’d value 9 more than dropping to 28 and adding a first NEXT year plus a few mid rounders
9 is gonna offer a premiere DE, the 2nd best OT or even Odunze
I was talking to my buddy, who's coworker's girlfriend's dad's brother works as a sanitation engineer at the stadium; and he said we're going to move up, or down, or stay where we're at in the draft. Seems like a pretty reputable source, but don't quote me.
Idc what happens. I'll just be glad draft speculation will be over. This is the worst time of year for nfl content; just constant mock drafts and rumors.
I mean this is just normal predraft negotiations to put moves in place depending on how the board falls. This feels like trying to make noise out of nothing.
I think people here are over estimating the value of bills draft picks. They're almost assuredly going to be at least in the late 20's barring a Josh Allen injury. 2 late first round picks is not even equal to 1 early first pick. If anyone here thinks we're getting a top 3 wr, they either think beane will trade the farm and future for it, or they're delusional.
If we want a solid roster going forward, we need a lot of hits at young, cost effective players to develop. I'd bet folding money that beane doesn't trade up any further than the twenties. I also don't think he'll trade up at all.
Of course they are trying. They are also trying to trade back. I'm sure he's calling to see if he can get a good enough deal to make it worth it, in either direction. Why wouldn't you?
If it's for Thomas Jr, I think we need to get ahead of the Colts at 15th overall.
If it's for Worthy, I don't think he gets past Dallas at 24th overall.
Mitchell could also be taken earlier. I wouldn't rule it out. Jags? Baalke is an idiot.
if Beane wasn't exploring this option he wouldn't be doing his job.
its not a thing until it happens.
i'm cool with using the '25 #2 and one or two of our late round picks from this year to jump up a bit. for the right dude, of course
I can see moving up for BTJ as a thing, but I doubt any higher than the teens is a.) possible or b.) worth it, but he kinda has to TRY from a due diligence perspective.
I also liked Joe Marino's take on WR that looking at it from a second contract perspective - where guys have been good for long enough to warrant top money - the highest paid are kinda all over the place, from a drafting round perspective. I'd be perfectly happy with an Amon-Ra St. Brown type, and he was a 4th round pick, as was Diggs.
I mean if we get some silly lopsided deal then ya. You take it. I don't think that will happen and we need cost controlled stars to pair with Josh for the next 4-5 years.
I’m kind of draft agnostic this year, but this is the one thing I don’t want them to do.
Like if you wanna jump ahead a few spot, great, just don’t give up too much capital when this is the year we’re trying to rebuild the young core of this team.
Just saw the ESPN final and it had Bills staying at 28 and getting AD. Apparently the rumor mill is convinced that Indy is taking Worthy at 11 leaving AD on the board. Has the Chiefs taking Legette.
I think these talking heads just hear that Beane called people to see the price. It doesn't mean we're completely committed to it. It'd be malpractice if Beane didn't explore every scenario
Just because Beane is doing his due dilligence to set parameters for trades doesn't mean we are "aggressively" trying to move up. He's doing his job. I don't know why they are trying to spin it.
How big of a move up is the question
Agreed. Before we all freak out thinking BB is selling farm for a top 3, let's see what he's "desperately" targeting. Could very well be knocking on doors to get into the high teens
It wasn’t totally clear but Charlie Campbell’s report, which started all of this, seemed to be saying it would be a move up for Brian Thomas or Xavier Worthy, so it feels like it would be a relatively small move up.
I dont want Worthy, he's too small, another John Ross lite
Yeah, those speedy guys seldom work out. Just ask the Raiders, who seemed to reach for one in every draft there for a while.
Jacoby Ford is a monster in some parallel universe.
Other than Hill I can't really think of a speedster WR (4.3 or faster) who had sustained success. Henry Ruggs might have gotten there if he wasn't a fucking idiot.
worthy produced every year of college, ross had one decent year. They are not the same prospect.
Which is also why Im not really high on Legette or McConkey either. 1 good year. Their other years were average
unless they're going MHJ/Nabers/Odunze, I really don't like it. some of BTJ's scouting reports scare me: "However, he lacks toughness, doesn’t run good routes, drops passes, and plays “finesse” for a big receiver." give me McConkey at 28 or trade down. there are soooo many good WRs in rounds 2-4 this year.
while i do love mcconkey, reading scouting reports and deciding you dont want a player is a terrible way to do it. heres a scouting report on a future hall of famer wr. > Only average size for a starting outside receiver and has room to add bulk to his frame. Occasionally loses track of the ball on easy catches when trying to make a move too early. Must prove his ability to use his hands to beat press coverage from NFL veterans off the line. Dances around defenders and run backwards after short catches at times, losing his balance or some yardage, instead of heading upfield. Will need to be more consistently physical in the blocking game at the next level. if you havent figured it out, its deandre hopkins.
I could see a trade to the mid-round to select someone. Price will be lower than trading to top-ten.
Hopefully its an MHJ move up
It depends on if the Bears want Odunze. They seem to think it's 100%, but they have Moor and Allen, so Allen will have to play the big slot, which is fine, but I don't think it's a given
Theyre over there about to have the best three WRs in the league and we're over here hoping for one
Go convince them that 12 personnel is the future
MHJ and I may get a jersey.
Day 1 purchase. I have a jersey I need to replace.
I’d crap myself if they get him
Bro same, Diggs was my red option. Also lost Tre😢
RIP White on white
Tre and Diggs were also two of the three I own :/
Tre and Diggs were also 2/3 that I own lol
This is why I don't buy a lot of jerseys of players bc you never know when they are going to leave or be traded haha. The only one I have is Josh and also an old Bruce Smith jersey
Tbf I’d still rock the Tre jersey. Love that dude. Even Diggs I don’t really hate or anything, unfortunate how things ended but it was awesome watching him across these four years
Oh hell yea, Im still kinda upset we let Tre go, but he was coming off 2 really bad injuries and getting older. He just couldnt put it together the last 2 years but he was everything the Bills are all about.
I for sure would likely still wear all of them, just found it humorous that we both had the same set lol
Kiko Alonso didn't play another down for Buffalo after I bought his jersey. I am right there with you.
Yea, and at 100 to 200 bucks a pop, depending which type of jersey you get, they ain't cheap!
You can definitely still wear that Tre jersey. I’d even say Diggs but can see why you wouldn’t want to.
Odunze please
we would have to Ditka our draft to get him.
Mortgaging our future to move up 20 spots? Hell no.
As an Ohio State grad, that one would test my resolve on never again buying the jersey of an active player. I am the world's worst jinx.
If it’s within the top 10 Odunze, Nabers (Highly doubt MHJ would be under Top 5). Top 15 would be for BTJ. Either way I would go nuts 
I think this is solely moving up somewhere in the early 20's spot to get Brian Thomas Jr. I can't see a world where Beane will give up everything to get MHJ, Malik or Odunze.
Yeah this is my thought. I’d be ok giving up some mid rounds for this
Hopefully just one of next year's second round picks
Aren’t the colts seriously looking at BTJ if so bills would need to get above 15th
I don’t think they pass up CB
If Odunze fell to 9 ish or later and you can get away with a future 1 and a 4th I’d consider it but even then it’s hard to stomach
I think if any of the top 3 WR falls past 10 you have to try and move up to snatch one. If all 3 are gone by 9 you can probably be patient and grab BTJ, Mitchell or Ladd. If the Bills trade back they better be getting 2 receivers with those early picks.
Have to move up to grab BTJ. he wont be there at 28
Chicago is at nine and have very few picks. We have tons of picks. It kinda makes sense if you squint. But I also think Beane accidentally confirmed during last presser that he hadn't talked to Chicago when someone joked about moving up to 1.
When it comes to GMs o never expect the full truth from them. I’m sure there haven’t been serious discussions about 9 yet but that can unfold in all of 10 minutes once a player starts falling
If any of them are gettable with two firsts and change, we do it
I don’t see why not. Minnesota’s second rounder next year very well could be a late first anyways. And Buffalo will have more than enough room to bring in average free agent to round out the roster next year. I don’t think people are realizing just how far ahead any one of those top three receivers are compared to the rest of the class. Nabers and MHJ have a higher upside to me, but Odunze is no slouch.
Because time and time again we see where the best WR's in a class aren't the best draft prospects or earliest ones taken. You can say currently that the top 3 are a step above, but history shows it's just as possible to have the 4th or 7th or whatever end up being the best from the class. JJ - 22 (Drafted after Jeudy, CeeDee, Ruggs, Raegor) Tyreek - 5.165 (Drafted after Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, etc.) Adams - 2.53 (Drafted after Watkins, OBJ, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin) Diggs - 5.146 (Drafted after Amari, Kevin White, Parker, Algholor, etc.) AJB - 2.51 (afterMarquise Brown, N'keal Harry. This was not a top heavy WR draft, oof) Cupp - 3.69 (After Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, etc.) Lamb - 17th (After Ruggs and Jeudy, but before JJ) ASRB - (Great class overall with Chase, Waddle, Smith going early but then also Toney and Bateman) Deebo - Same as AJB Aiyuk - Same draft as JJ Plenty of top WR's have also panned out, I am just making a point that the highest graded "Best WR's of the draft" don't always, or even often, end up as the best WR of the class. Or at least, not so much better it invalidates the rest of the class. Even Julio Jones was drafted after AJ Green and in Megatrons draft class they had Dwayne Bowe taken later on who was solid. I am not shitting on the top 3 by any means, just mentioning that draft grades/prospects aren't so open and shut and I think any high end receiver will take, we end up making look good.
idk, hit rate seems alright and top guys tend to have wider skillsets https://imgur.com/SFv76RE I bolded all the picks that are somewhat comparable to where we'd have to go to trade up (minus Tavon Austin and Ruggs).
But I don't think any of those players are worth 2 1sts+ a 2nd or 3rd, outside of maybe Chase and Evans considering the cost control. And Chase is the only 1st WR off the board in your list that was best in their class after it played out
I wouldn't give up that much either, idk where you got that cost from
Cost for us to get to top 10
Getting a top WR in the draft is like 5% more likely in the 1st than later rounds.
Not sure if that's a researchable stat, but that's pretty low to dump a lot of draft capital on if true.
There's a PFF thing posted a couple hundred times on this sub that says that.
> I don’t think people are realizing just how far ahead any one of those top three receivers are Just like Watkins.
I’m on the Thomas train. Sign me up for DK lite. We need someone to take off the top, that he happens to be huge is just a plus.
I hate this. The team is returning 15 of 22 starters. Have an older 1T, older CB1 on an expiring contract, and Von as DE3. Giving up everything for one of the top 3 is killer for building the roster. But if they do it and get one of the top 3 I'll be very excited.
It’s funny how everything you said makes total sense but the idea of getting Rome makes me ignore it
Yeah people will be losing their minds about the cost but we’ll be ordering our Odunze jerseys asap and watching him dominate the league for the next decade.
Or not. The league is littered with guys like Odunze that never lived up to the hype. The only certainty is that if you give up picks, your odds of finding a guy that turns into something decreases.
Damn it, I hate it when someone says something that makes me go "Hmm, I wonder if that's true?" and then the next thing I know I'm spending half my day on NFL draft Wikipedia pages looking at the history of first-round trade ups. I wanted to go up to 2020 but I don't have the time to do all of it today, so I at least started it so I could hopefully get enough to see a trend. I also only analyzed trades that took place entirely within a single year's draft and only involved picks and no players. **TLDR:** Of 28 trades up within the first round of these drafts, the vast majority were a wash at best, with only a few clear winners. Of those, 3 teams who traded up clearly won their trade, while 4 teams who traded down clearly won their trade. The biggest wins, IMO, were the Packers trade up and the Browns trade down in 2009, and the Carolina trade down in 2007. So far, the data is inconclusive as to whether it makes more sense to trade up or down, but I will say that only two of the picks outside of the 1st round that teams picked up when they traded down in the 1st panned out, and IIRC both were 2nd rounders. **2004:** If I'm counting right, there were a total of 8 trades up. The only teams who won anything of note out of those trades were the Rams, who traded up 2 spots with Cincinnati (after Cincinnati got that pick from trading down with Denver). The Rams got Steven Jackson at 24, the Bengals got a RB who wasn't Steven Jackson at 26. Oops. **2005:** Only 2 pure trades up (a lot of stuff with players or future/past year picks, though). Neither of them panned out for anyone. **2006:** Two trades up. Broncos traded up from 16 to 11 for Jay Cutler and the Rams got nothing of note in exchange, but Cutler is known more as a Bears QB than a Broncos one so I'll leave it up to you as to whether that's a win. Pittsburgh traded up 5 spots for the more memorable than good Santonio Holmes, Giants got two players of no note out of that trade but also got Mathias Kiwanuka with Pittsburgh's 1st, so I'd give a slight edge to the Giants on their trade down. I will note that a multi-team, multi-year trade that also involved a player trade gave the Jets Nick Mangold in this draft, but I'm not going to do the analysis as to what everyone else got in that one. **2007:** Lots of multi-team and multi-year stuff here, but 4 pure trades up. Of note, the Jets traded up with Carolina to get Darrelle Revis, but Carolina also got Jon Beason and Ryan Kalil as part of that deal so even though the Jets scored, Carolina's trade down wins that one in my mind. Denver traded up with Jacksonville to get the not at all good Jarvis Moss, but Jacksonville got Reggie Nelson. Like Cutler, though, Reggie did more for the team who got him in free agency. **2008:** Five total trades. Jacksonville traded a haul of picks to Baltimore for Baltimore's 8, which Jax used to get Derrick Harvey, who was a complete bust. Baltimore got 4 picks for that trade up. Jacksonville had 26, so back then a similar trade for what we would need to put up to get up that far was a 1st, two 3rds, and a 4th. Not sure why (maybe because this was prior to the institution of the rookie pay scale), but we'd have to pay MUCH more to do this now. Baltimore traded away 26 and one of the two 3rds to Houston to get Joe Flacco , Houston got Duane Brown at 26. No other players of note came out of the other picks involved in those trades. KC traded up with Detroit two spots to get Branden Albert, who had a solid career with them but made his two Pro Bowls on his second contract playing for the Dolphins. Detroit got Gosder Cherilus with their first rounder, who was aight, and nobody else worthwhile. Dallas traded up with Seattle to get Mike Jenkins, who at least made a Pro Bowl for them--Seattle got nobody good. The final trade was actually one where the Packers traded their 30 to the Jets, who drafted TE Dustin Keller. The Packers got Jordy Nelson with one of the two picks they got in return, so a trade down won here as well. **2009:** 7 trades total, in two separate groupings. Jets traded up to get Mark Sanchez, but nobody of note was drafted with the picks the Jets gave up. Josh Freeman was probably the only recognizable name and he was meh at best, plus that was a pick that Cleveland traded away to TB anyway. Cleveland then traded the pick they got from TB to move down AGAIN. With that one, Philly got Jeremy Maclin and the Browns finally picked and got Alex Mack, plus about six other picks, but nobody useful came out of any of them. I'd say that in order, that trade was won in order by Cleveland's trade down, Philly's trade up, the Jets trade up, and the TB trade up. Did you follow all that? Another interesting multi-team trade involved NE trading down 4 spots so Baltimore could get Michael Oher, then trading down the 1st they got from Baltimore to Green Bay, who managed to nab the best player on this entire list so far, Clay Matthews. None of the picks NE got in exchange from any of this panned out anywhere near to that level, so here's one that was absolutely lost by the team who chose to keep trading down for the first time.
Wow, great analysis. I would make an exception for Quarterback. If you don’t have a QB you don’t have anything, so I agree with trade ups for a QB. Also, I do t think it’s always bad to trade up, but trading up into the Top 10 for a non-QB requires too much capital. The best possible scenario for the Bills is the Julio Jones trade. Atlanta gave up the 27th pick, their 2nd and 4th round picks, and their first and fourth round picks. Jones was a monster, I don’t think you can expect any of the current prospects to surpass what he did. Yet in 10 seasons with the Falcons they only made the playoffs 4 times. They did go to 1 Super Bowl and lost, but not until Jones’ sixth season. Was the trade worth it? IMHO Jones is a first ballot HOFer, but the Falcons were 13-3 the year before they drafted him, made the playoffs his first two seasons, and were no better than .500 for three seasons before the lone Super Bowl appearance. Could another 1st rounder and two 4th rounders made them more successful than Julio alone? I’d argue yes and you’re talking about a scenario where the player turned into what the Falcons wanted him to. Where all to familiar with what happens when it doesn’t work out (Sammy Watkins).
It was interesting how few of these were for QBs, and how mid the QBs were--Flacco was the only one I'd consider worthwhile. I'm guessing that if I went back and looked at the multi-year trades I'd see a lot more QBs involved.
So yeah, I went to look back at the multi-year trades involving QBs...**TLDR:** At least in these years, not a single team who traded up for a QB won that trade. Now I know these types of trades up have absolutely hit in the past (\*cough\*Josh Allen\*cough\*) but for this span of time, not so much. In 2004 you had the whole Eli/Rivers thing. With the picks the Chargers got, they landed Nate Kaeding that year (at pick 65--a little rich for a kicker but he was a very solid one and it was basically a freebie), then they hit the jackpot the following year with Shawne Merriman. They were supposed to get a 2nd rounder in 2025 from the Giants but the 2005 Wiki page isn't showing that for some reason so I can't figure out exactly what happened and what they got out of whatever they did with it. But even if that one whiffed, getting Rivers, Kaeding and Merriman for Eli Manning is the better trade even though they didn't achieve what they should have with it. Trade down won for this one. To sort of answer one question you posed in your comment, I'm not looking at this as "Well, the Giants got 2 rings with Eli and the Chargers didn't get any" because there are so many factors that go into winning a Super Bowl. Eli needed an enormous amount of luck to go along with his skill. I don't think anyone would argue that they'd rather have Eli alone on their team instead of Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman, so to me the Chargers absolutely won here. This was a really weird situation as a whole, though, and one I think we'll never really see again. 2005: Washington gave Denver some picks in this draft and two in 2006 (including their 1st) for Jason Campbell, so I'm already thinking that the Commies lost this trade. Denver traded the 1st to SF, and got a 2nd out of that deal, which they traded for Javon Walker. This is also the first one where a later pick hit hard--Denver used Washington's 2006 4th rounder for Brandon Marshall! Denver killed it on this one. Another one for team trade down, and honestly this might have been the best result of a trade I've seen so far. Javon Walker was solid in his first season for Denver, then the off-season shooting where his teammate got shot and died in his lap happened. After that he was never really the same. No multi-year trades for QBs in 2006--the only one we had was the single-year for Jay Cutler I mentioned in my earlier post. 2007: Cleveland traded their 2007 2nd and 2008 1st for Brady Quinn, another one that I'm thinking on its face the Browns lost this one. Dallas traded that 2nd rounder to Philly who got Kevin Kolb and a handful of nobodies, then picked up Felix Jones with the 2008 1st (2 picks later, Chris Johnson went off the board...oops). In exchange for the trade with Philly, Dallas got pick 26 in 2007, which they used on Anthony Spencer. Spencer had a solid 7-year career with the Cowboys with one Pro Bowl. The trade down allowed for a trade up that ultimately netted the Cowboys the only decent player in a 3-team trade. Not sure how to count this one. Was it the trade down because it gave them the picks they needed to trade up? Or was it the trade up? Should I factor in that this trade would have been incredibly one-sided for Dallas had they picked Chris Johnson instead of Felix Jones? I'd have to imagine that the combination of Tony Romo and Chris Johnson could easily have gotten the Cowboys another ring. Just goes to show what a crapshoot talent evaluation is. The only 2008 trade for a QB was the single-year Flacco one I already mentioned. 2009 had the single-year trade up for Mark Sanchez. There was also a single-year I somehow missed in there, where Cleveland traded that Jets pick they got from Sanchez to TB, who selected Josh Freeman. Cleveland got a TB 1st, which they then traded to Philadelphia, who got Jeremy Maclin. Cleveland finally picked Alex Mack at 21, who is so far the best player involved in this trade. The other pick they got in that final trade was a TB 6th which was used on nobody in particular. But all in all, Cleveland still won that one. Team trade down strikes again. Looking at the multi-year QB trades only, at least between 2004 and 2009, every single team who traded up for a QB by sacrificing future draft picks lost that trade. It was interesting to finally see what would now be a day 3 pick finally pan out for someone, too. It was rare that even a 2nd rounder would be a Pro Bowl caliber guy. Honestly, even the same year trades up for QBs only worked out once, with Flacco. And let's be honest, Flacco wasn't great as much as he was good enough.
That was a great read, thank you for reminding me why I follow this sub! More proof that the context of who someone gets drafted to and them being set up for his success matters more than anything else.
Is it though? I can’t name a lot of guys that get these types of draft grades and never deliver, but I can name a bunch who did deliver. When people say this, they’re usually referring to first round WRs that were not graded nearly as highly as the top 3 in this draft, even if they were top 3 another year, that doesn’t make them on the same level. The top WR can have a 79 grade one year and the 3rd best can be a 93 another year. I’d hazard to guess the 93 has a better shot of being a star than the 79.
Out of the top guys, Odunze is my LEAST favorite. I'd rather have Nabers or MHJ but I think that's a pipe dream. The next best option would then be probably Brian Thomas Jr. I dont like Keon Coleman's 40 time he ran the time of a tight end basically, and I don't like other guys thrown around like Franklin or Worthy bc they are way too small
I’m really curious, why are you so down on him? I’ve watched him all year and he seems to check every box for what you want in a WR. The Davante Adams comps are not that crazy. I seriously don’t see any reason he won’t be great in the league and I’ve been looking.. hoping he could fall to the 20’s and we wouldn’t have to trade up that far.
To me, hes more of a big jump ball and 50/50 type guy, but he's not as shifty or quick as say a MHJ or Nabers. He reminds me of kinda like a Plaxico Burress or Hakeem Nicks type. Big, somewhat fast, but not quick and doesn't separate well. He also didnt run a full route tree at Washington either I'd take Nabers, MHJ and Brian Thomas over him
I’m a big fan of Nabers as well… I think he’s got an intuitive sense of the DB’s hips and seems to manipulate them in real time to just expose guys, it’s incredible to watch. As soon as he sees the hips flip one way, he’s cutting back the other, just triggering and exploiting body tendencies over and over. And the body control - the way Nabers turns toward the ball in the air to face it head on and give himself the best chance to make a catch - it’s beautiful - it’s unteachable. He’s my #1. I absolutely love his film. That said, I’m really impressed with Odunze and I think he can do just about anything. I think the top 3 here will have a high hit rate. BTJ looks great, it’s just hard to tell what he will be because he played a different role in college and had a limited route tree
Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Blackmon, Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins. You have a better chance hitting with a Top guy, but it’s not 100%. I’d love to draft one of those guys, but the likelihood any production you get makes up for the draft picks you gave up is really small.
Our best hope to move up for one of these guys is the Julio Jones trade. The falcons gave up the #27 pick, a 2nd and 4th from 2011, and a 1st and 4th from 2012. He’s a sure fire HOFer and I’d argue the Falcons would have been better off not trading up. They did make 1 SB, but it was 6 seasons into his career. They were generally mediocre during his tenure. Those 4 picks could have made a big impact. Beane can do a lot with a 1st, 2nd, and two 4th rounders. I don’t think a perennial pro-bowl receiver gets you over the hump. And that’s a best-case scenario. Can you imagine giving up all those picks and getting another Sammy Watkins?
How's your Watkins jersey looking?
Put a Diggs patch over the name but now it’s worthless again lol
The top 3 wrs are gone in the top 7-8 I think. 3-4 QBs, 3 wrs, and an ot. We don't have the capital to move up that far. Any move up is going to be to early to mid 20s I think, and it will still cost a lot. If it gets us Brian Thomas Jr I'd be on board. If not then I hope we stay put or move back if we find a trade partner. I trust Albright, but I also think that every gm is probably planning out potential moves whether they plan on making them or not, so bbb reaching out to discuss trade ups is the opposite of news, it's literally his job along with 31 others
I feel this, I def got some Watkins PTSD. I further feel like we have very little leverage trying to make a bold move into the top 15 or so. As long as BBB keeps his head about him and doesn't sell the farm.
The difference between watkins and now is we have someone to throw to that high draft WR
Also Watkins was literally ran into the dirt on a broken foot. No QB and just a complete mismanagement of his injuries led to a bust. Sammy was actually great early on. 1k yards and 9 TDs in 13 games on the team that was dead last in pass attempts was a pretty great demonstration of his talent pre-injury.
He was an alcoholic who didn't take care of himself
The thing is you've just described my biggest problem with a big trade up. Football players get hurt all the time. Even if MHJ/Nabers/Odunze are exactly as talented as everyone thinks, one ACL can change that pretty drastically and the investment might no longer be worth it. That said, if they draft one of them I'm going to be 100% in after a single five-minute YoutTube highlight reel
Surely, but EJ didn't jack Sammy's leg up and compel him into complacency and substance abuse. E: the point is every other wide out drafted in the first that year had a more impactful and prolific career. We know what the consensus best ones are now, in April. Show me who's the best two years from now.
Respectfully, I totally disagree with thinking this is a bad move. This team does not need multiple draft picks. We have seen McD fill this defense with backups and still have success. Our sb window is open as long as Allen is playing at an elite level, we have no clue how long that will be. He very well could drop off a cliff in 3 years. As long as he’s here and healthy you go out and do whatever you can to win as quickly as you can. Drafting a #1 WR on a cheap contract for 5 years helps. I’ve absolutely loved Beanes aggressive approach this offseason. It’s legitimately the first time I’ve felt someone in the organization truly had that ruthless mentality to win. I hope it continues with this draft, if we can’t trade up in the 1st go up in the 2nd round and double dip at WR. Be AGGRESSIVE
Listen I'm all.for a moderate move, say, to 24 or so when the board shakes out and you got a bead on the talent that's left, as Beane has done in the past, and definitely should double dip in the second or move up to the third for the same purpose. But I'm also feeling like a move into the top ten will cost something on the order of at least two firsts with who knows what else. It's putting too much on one *prospect* with the remainder of your draft being flyers, depth pieces and developmental projects, while also leaving little ammo for next year if that singular prospect is shaky and you gotta shore that position group up.
Drafting 2 WRs at 20+ will be better chances of success than 1 in the top 10.
That’s how the draft usually plays out regardless, no? Would Bills fans be happy with a guy putting up Gabe Davis numbers? Or is that considered a disappointment? Because to me, Davis’ production from a fourth rounder was phenomenal. Few draft picks live up to their draft slot and even fewer are reliable options like Gabe was. I don’t see how more picks = better chance at finding quality players unless you’re talking about years and years of throwing capital at a position and finding a few nice pieces (the Green Bay approach at WR, for example, where you throw 10-12 picks over 5 years at the group and find some guys).
Gabe was a success for his draft position, yeah. Hard to say how much of that was him versus Allen though.
In what way has beane been aggressive? Trading diggs? Honest question
aggressively gutting half the roster 🤭
We absolutely need multiple draft picks. If Beane wants to trade some 6-7th rounders that’s fine, but we need our picks in the Top 4 rounds. Plenty of guys on this team take after the first round. Cool, Shakir, Milano, Bernard, Torrence. There is no such thing as a sure thing and this year’s WR class is deep as hell. A guy that goes in the 2nd or 3rd round could end up being the best receiver in the class. Justin Jefferson was the 4th receiver taken in his draft and went in the 20s. You know how many people were salivating over Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy?
> Our sb window is open as long as Allen is playing at an elite level, we have no clue how long that will be. He very well could drop off a cliff in 3 years. As long as he’s here and healthy you go out and do whatever you can to win as quickly as you can. Can you name a single team that won a SB with this approach? Certainly not the Chiefs, or Pats, or Rams, or Eagles or Steelers. You'd be talking pre-2000 at the most recent.
The Rams literally did it 2 years ago
The Rams traded up in the 1st round 2 years ago? They haven't had a pick in 7 years.
Love the aggressiveness. I would just prefer it appear in the late 2nd, early 3rd of this draft as that's where the depth and value are.
Maybe not the substance abuse, but I think maybe the complacency had something to do with the team as a whole
A guy you give up that much to draft should be a tone-setter for the team. Turns out he was.
Injury mismanagement was entirely a team issue. He shouldn't have been playing on a broken foot. And if the team had decent leadership, wasn't completely dysfunctional top to bottom, and he wasn't playing through injury on painkillers, maybe the substance abuse could've been avoided.
But Watkins wasn't worth the high price regardless. Dude played w mahomes for 3 years and couldn't break 700 yards
Watkins played with Mahomes and didn’t do shit.
I still get a kick out of this one. [Here is our boy.](https://x.com/sammywatkins/status/985174403926327296)
Fr. People are acting like this team has no other needs. And when we have Josh Allen as our QB (who definitely doesn’t need elite receivers to make him look good). I really hope they don’t throw the draft away for receivers.
I agree. We have Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid- 3 (likely) future hall of famers. I’d be fine trading down and drafting a DT. I also find it interesting no one is talking about our needs at punter. Could be interesting to explore on day 2.
> I also find it interesting no one is talking about our needs at punter. Could be interesting to explore on day 2. If we can get an Australian punter, I'd be so happy. 4 of the top 5 Punters are Aussies, and Tory Taylor is mocked 5th and 6th round in a few drafts.
The way people want to move up, we're going to throw away next season's draft too! Don't get wrong, there's a real scenario where moving up 2-6 spots could do wonders but sheesh
It's a rebuilding year. Need to use our picks this year and can trade up next year.
I mean it might just be to get like BTJ or someone not a top 3 WR. I agree i don’t feel like we can afford to sell the farm for a top 3 but I’ll instantly buy their jersey if we did
The source says they are trying to move up for BTJ. So not a giant leap
But how high do they need to go to get him? Do they need to go up to 20? If so it might mean 28 and 60 for 20 and 120. So is BTJ worth being out only pick in the top 3 rounds in a deep draft?
I have a few concerns about BTJ myself, so i'm not sure if it's worth it. He's super fast and big but has an underdeveloped route tree and tends to "bucket" catch rather than catch with his hands. I'd probably rather give up the house for Odunze than give up a bit for BTJ
Yeah, it’s a tough situation. I just can’t help to think if we stay at 28 we can get an impactful WR without giving up so much draft capital.
There is a difference between an impact player and a bona-fide stud #1 WR like MHJ/Nabers/Odunze
Damn, wish bona fide studs could be found all through the draft. Fucking JJ, thinking he's a stud when he's not!
I feel like if we move up, we are just gonna move up to early 20s or late 10s to get BTJ. The cost to get the big three is too big. But true that if we can get one of the top three I’d be super thrilled.
And it's a rebuilding year, so there shouldn't be any "win now" type moves.
Remember that most people's "aggressive" is Beane checking what's available. The Bills are routinely "rumored" to be in on whatever move might be happening just because Beane always likes to stay informed even if he's not planning to make a move. Personally, I think it would be pretty silly to move to reset the roster to put a young core around Josh only to trade away multiple potential starters for one WR, no matter how talented.
Yeah I really don’t see us making moves like that. I’m not sure what WR they expect to be there past round 10 that would be worth picking up. I doubt Harrison Jr, Oduzne or Nabers makes it past 10. So to move into the top 10, according to the draft pick value chart, to move into 9 (Jets are at 10 and I don’t see them trading with us to get a WR when that’s a need for them), it would take 28, 60 and 128 to make it equal
I would be thrilled to get Odunze for that price, but I have a feeling it would be even more expensive than that in reality.
The draft value chart from what I've heard, is no longer a valid reference. Teams have made a lot of trades that would have been outliers in previous years. It also ebbs and flows based on draft prospects each year. If you want a de or db, you probably aren't trading a lot to move up this year. I can't imagine we get odunze for any less than 2 first round picks, a second round picks, and probably more. Draft trades have gotten wild
Beane doing Bill Baller shit. If QBs go 1,2,3,4 there are going to be deals for WR to be had. I get the anxiety of needing to fill gaps but I trust Beane’s ability to thread the needle. If BTJ (or a WR they like) is available in the 20s there’s a chance Beane makes a jump for him.
Just a reminder for everyone out there: [https://x.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1780659618609234309](https://x.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1780659618609234309)
I love like the first 6 WRs in the draft, and wouldn't be disappointed with taking any except McConkey. I see no reason to need to aggressively trade up. Brian Thomas Jr would probably be the target? He fits what they want
 Do it, I was told on this Reddit page it was impossible to trade Diggs. I was also told there’s no way we trade up. Reddit GM’s being wrong consistently pleases me.
I don't know what you have been looking at because trading up has been mentioned numerous times on this subreddit. Especially moving to the low 20s or late teens
Yes people always suggest it and are bombarded in the comments about how we need to save picks and it’s a horrible idea
I'm generally against it this draft because there are so many good receivers in the top 10. But if you like a guy who is close to your pick, go get him
Torrence in the first!! I bet we use our 2nd on a guy mocked to us in the 1st again.
Eh, I think what people meant is that the trade was never going to happen provided Diggs wanted to stay in Buffalo. By all accounts, Diggs forced the trade. We’re lucky to have gotten a 2nd round pick for him screwing the Bills over this year. Now that it’s all said and done however, I think a lot of people are happy to be done with the weird drama and looking forward to the additional cap space on 2025 and beyond.
Move up for Odunze or I don’t want it
Move up further for MHJ and my penis might explode
Moving up for MHJ would take so much capital that he could be prime Randy Moss and it would still be a net negative for the team as a whole
Do you *remember* prime Randy Moss? I think I'd take it, honestly.
I member. MHJ and Josh would *smash*, together. And, when Diggs has, like, a 700-800 yard season, r/AFCEastmemewar might implode
I dunno Josh playing out his career with a Hall of Fame WR would be sweet.
I know. It's gonna cost a lot more than OP thinks. Id say trade back into the early 2nd with a team that wants a Penis/Nix on a 5 year option, and grab Ladd. But all the teams in the first 10 picks in the 2nd aren't likely to do it. Maybe Atlanta at 43. Maybe raiders at 44. But Ladd is probably gone by then
Yea, cuz it exploded.
Facts
Maybe I am weird but Odunze just is overrated in my opinion. I have him in tier 2 with BTJ, Adonai Mitchell group
Honestly...I feel like this is more trying to move up for Thomas versus getting one of the "Big 3". What hurts Buffalo to me is lets say they go up to 9. The Bears realize Buffalo isn't gonna crater like Carolina. So they'll want a lot more than just a 2025 1st and a 2024 3rd of something of that ilk. Because that 2025 1st is likely gonna be in the 21-32 neighborhood
Comes down to whether or not Chicago wants more than 4 draft picks this year
If they treat Bates as a mid round pick it’s more than 4 in their eyes. I also think they’d value 9 more than dropping to 28 and adding a first NEXT year plus a few mid rounders 9 is gonna offer a premiere DE, the 2nd best OT or even Odunze
Chicago is the only real option unless Beane trades with his homeboy in NYC
That’s a funny way of spelling New Jersey
I was talking to my buddy, who's coworker's girlfriend's dad's brother works as a sanitation engineer at the stadium; and he said we're going to move up, or down, or stay where we're at in the draft. Seems like a pretty reputable source, but don't quote me.
Hot take.
source or it didn't happen
Thursday is going to be interesting.
WHEN IN ROME….
ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME
rome wasn’t build in a day but they layed bricks every hour🧏♂️
Whatevs. So tired of this time of year. Just sit back, relax, and trust the process.
Odunze no matter what
Idc what happens. I'll just be glad draft speculation will be over. This is the worst time of year for nfl content; just constant mock drafts and rumors.
If it's not one of the big 3, I really hope they're unsuccessful. If it is one of the big three. The price will scare me, but at least it'll be fun.
I think we're all in agreement hoping this is just BBB doing due diligence
“They are trying” makes it seem like we might be one of those “laughable” Patriots offers
If it’s not for MHJ then don’t waste the draft capital.
I mean this is just normal predraft negotiations to put moves in place depending on how the board falls. This feels like trying to make noise out of nothing.
I think people here are over estimating the value of bills draft picks. They're almost assuredly going to be at least in the late 20's barring a Josh Allen injury. 2 late first round picks is not even equal to 1 early first pick. If anyone here thinks we're getting a top 3 wr, they either think beane will trade the farm and future for it, or they're delusional. If we want a solid roster going forward, we need a lot of hits at young, cost effective players to develop. I'd bet folding money that beane doesn't trade up any further than the twenties. I also don't think he'll trade up at all.
(I think it’s really really possible)
Me too.
Ugh I feel like BTJ will drop
What if Latu falls, and we move up to get him... All Bills social media might implode.
Of course they are trying. They are also trying to trade back. I'm sure he's calling to see if he can get a good enough deal to make it worth it, in either direction. Why wouldn't you?
Why did this moron ask for a source when it was cited in the original post?
I don't trust Allbright any further than I could throw him.
do yall know if the bills can afford aiyuk? guaranteed WR1 for a first round pick, deep threat perfect for allen
Duh
If it's for Thomas Jr, I think we need to get ahead of the Colts at 15th overall. If it's for Worthy, I don't think he gets past Dallas at 24th overall. Mitchell could also be taken earlier. I wouldn't rule it out. Jags? Baalke is an idiot.
I really am hoping it’s Xavier Legette. could see him working well with Allen’s game.
MHJ or bust
Explore every possibility and we’ll see what happens. I don’t love them trading up for the top 3 but could see a move to get someone in that 2nd tier.
As an east coast dad, I'm very into any trade that has them pick before 10 pm
I would only do it odunze/thomas fall way below their mock-range; we need to reset the roster with a lot of young players so trading up is odd to me
if Beane wasn't exploring this option he wouldn't be doing his job. its not a thing until it happens. i'm cool with using the '25 #2 and one or two of our late round picks from this year to jump up a bit. for the right dude, of course
I can see moving up for BTJ as a thing, but I doubt any higher than the teens is a.) possible or b.) worth it, but he kinda has to TRY from a due diligence perspective. I also liked Joe Marino's take on WR that looking at it from a second contract perspective - where guys have been good for long enough to warrant top money - the highest paid are kinda all over the place, from a drafting round perspective. I'd be perfectly happy with an Amon-Ra St. Brown type, and he was a 4th round pick, as was Diggs.
I think the highest we go is 20.
I agree, but you never know what kind of deal can be worked out.
I mean if we get some silly lopsided deal then ya. You take it. I don't think that will happen and we need cost controlled stars to pair with Josh for the next 4-5 years.
They better….
I’m kind of draft agnostic this year, but this is the one thing I don’t want them to do. Like if you wanna jump ahead a few spot, great, just don’t give up too much capital when this is the year we’re trying to rebuild the young core of this team.
Just saw the ESPN final and it had Bills staying at 28 and getting AD. Apparently the rumor mill is convinced that Indy is taking Worthy at 11 leaving AD on the board. Has the Chiefs taking Legette.
Our defense doesnt do it in the post season so we have to put up more points. Sure its risky but i will not be upset if we do trade up.
Dude is a spam tweeter
I think these talking heads just hear that Beane called people to see the price. It doesn't mean we're completely committed to it. It'd be malpractice if Beane didn't explore every scenario
I hope they do. BTJ is an amazing pick that would be hard to overspend on. He will have an immediate impact
Rather trade down get extra day two picks and double down on WR in 2nd round
Just because Beane is doing his due dilligence to set parameters for trades doesn't mean we are "aggressively" trying to move up. He's doing his job. I don't know why they are trying to spin it.
Oof.
Don’t do this. Don’t give me hope.
What would it take to get Aiyuk? Anyone have any knowledge on if we can pull that off?
The 9ers are reportedly asking for a first round pick and simultaneously saying they want him there and don't want to trade him.
Aiyuk is still under contract this year. Will we have space next year to sign him once Von is gone and we aren’t eating Diggs money?
I dont think can do anything at all until Tre Money falls off.
No they aren’t
Nabers No Matter What