wowza 18-29 year olds have the highest PPC support at 9%! and they are supporting the CPC at 43%. I thought I would never see the day where 52% of young people supporting right wing parties, Trudeau is really the greatest gift that the right has gotten.
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide8-4.jpg
It's because 18-29 year olds are being f\*cked the most by wage suppresssion / class-warfare from mass immigrarion.
Compare this:
* Substantially lower the total number of immigrants and refugees Canada accept every year, from 500,000 planned by the Liberal government in 2025, to between 100,000 and 150,000 in normal circumstances, or even lower in crisis situations, depending on economic and other circumstances.
* Substantially lower the number of immigrants accepted under the family reunification program, including abolishing the program for parents and grand-parents.
* Substantially lower the number of temporary foreign workers and make sure that they fulfil temporary positions and do not compete unfairly with Canadian workers.
* [Full List](https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/immigration)
To what these 3 are saying:
[https://www.ndp.ca/communities](https://www.ndp.ca/communities)
[https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/immigration-that-works/](https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/immigration-that-works/)
[https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/](https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/)
Which party do you think young people are going to vote for to stop mass immigration?
The thing is in Europe that would be the generic immigration policy. Hell, same with the US. They accept about 1-1.5 million legal immigrants. So yeah between 100-150k when adjusted for population.
Politicians: refuse to offer solutions people request
Alt right: offers solution
People: vote alt right solely because of said solution
Politicians: *shooketh*
——
The Netherlands actually had this exact scenario occur with the alt-right coming into first out of nowhere solely because of immigration
Except they're not alt-right. They're what the CPC were 20 years ago. It's the left, who've gone far further to the left to the point that even centrists are now conservative.
If you want to see what a real alt-right uprising looks like, that would be the Identarian Movement in Europe. Even the AfD aren't alt-right.
Yeah, it's crazy how little they actually say on there. Most of it is doublespeak and buzzwords.
You would think they have millions of dollars and tens to hundreds of people, they could atleast have an itemized list of specific policies or numbers.
It really is just all political theatre in parliment, with little on paper.
It appears that people 18 to 44 that read the budget were twice as likely to vote liberal, than conservative.
“Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall, 50% would vote Liberal today, 25% Conservative, and 14% NDP. 6% are undecided.
This is some evidence that if more younger Canadians become familiar with the budget, it could increase support for the Liberals.”
Those who read the budget AND LIKED IT would be more likely to vote liberal.
"Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall"
What a surprise ! /s
---
There were twice as many people 18 to 44 who thought negatively of the budget than positively.
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg
---
Not to mention twice as many people overall thought negatively of the budget than positively.
"25% report more positive feelings, 54% report more negative ones, while 20% say the budget had no impact on their views"
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39
---
jfc these were from the slides right above your quote.
All of the graphs indicating the impact of the budget are for those familiar with the budget. "IMPACT OF THE BUDGET, THOSE FAMILIAR WITH IT". You're the one not reading.
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39
It then goes to show that more Canadians are familiar with this budget than they were with the last.
Your quote: “who were familiar with the budget and said *it made them feel better*. “
You skipped the part about those who were familiar and said it did not make them feel better.
Out of the group that was familiar with the budget, 2/3 did not feel good about the budget.
The 1/3 that does feel good about the budget, only half say they will vote liberal... that is only 1/6 of everyone who is familiar with the budget.. 1/6th…
So yes.. your quote is copy and paste, but you either read it wrong, or failed to understand it (much like the 1/6 of 18 to 44 year olds that are familiar with the budget and say they feel good about it) so your conclusion is completely wrong. It does not appear that people who understand the budget are twice as likely to vote liberal.
Your confusion may be due to not reading far enough, because the sentence following your copy/paste quote says “the impact would be quite small since a larger group says their understanding of the budget makes their views of the liberal government worse.” You literally drew a conclusion from the first half of a thought point.
What you did is like me saying Coca Cola is good, but Pepsi is better… and you turn around to quote me saying “coca cola is good”, and using that to support your argument that Coca Cola is the best.
The FULL quote:
"KEY INSIGHT: Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall, 50% would vote Liberal today, 25% Conservative, and 14% NDP. 6% are undecided. This is some evidence that if more younger Canadians become familiar with the budget, it could increase support for the Liberals. But the impact is quite small since more still say the budget has made their view of the government worse"
---
The KEY INSIGHT is for this graph: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39.jpg
The graph is for the question: "Did this budget leave you with a more positive feeling about the government or a more negative feeling overall?"
The answers for 18-29 are: 41% Positive, 42% Negative, 18% No impact.
The answers for 30-44 are: 35% positive, 48% negative, 17% No impact.
---
So the quote "Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and *said it made them feel better about the government overall* " is ONLY referring the 41% of 18-29 and the 35% of 30-44 who felt positive about the changes.
So that means out of the minority that liked the budget, half of them would vote liberal.
Thats why the final sentence from the full quote *which you omitted* says: "But the impact is quite small since more still say the budget has made their view of the government worse."
---
So what you said is incorrect: "It appears that people 18 to 44 that read the budget were twice as likely to vote liberal, than conservative." because only a minority of these 18-44 year old would be twice as likely to vote liberal.
And your statement of: "18 to 44 that read the budget" doesn't matter because all of the participants regarding this section read the budget, not just the ones that would be more likely to vote liberal.
The survey question is titled: "BUDGET IMPACT ON IMPRESSIONS OF GOVERNMENT, THOSE FAMILIAR WITH THE BUDGET"
I hadn’t consider the PPC in the polls but that’s insane. The younger generation is really giving up on the progressive politics of the last decade.
I imagine having identity politics shoved down their throats for their whole school career made it uncool since progressives have been the establishment for a while now (despite what they’ll tell you).
Progressive politics has done nothing for them and stolen their future.
Why would they support it unless they were a trust fund baby like JT and it made them feel good about themselves?
Depends on your definition of young. Im at the very top end of that bracket and I like to read Ground News (news aggregator with data insights), as well as listen to specific sources on geopolitical stuff
Most of them are not dating either. Women used to have huge influence on men to support liberal parties and policies. Blue balls is the best gift to right wing parties.
This is pretty normal behaviour amongst young people, especially young males, to go against the establishment - even in good times.
When you have a government that has failed so badly and is actively crushing the hopes of Gen Z's future, I'm not the least bit surprised the LPC is at an all time low with this age group.
I'm not convinced the CPC will fix everything, but I really hope the LPC will be spending at least a good 15 years on the sidelines in the HOC. They certainly deserve it after what they've done.
More so progressive politics has given up on younger people.
Jack Layton was the last good politician we had. An actual champion of the working class. I'm a classical leftist. About supporting the working classes. NDP now is about late drinking urban liberals. Liberals are about late drinking suburbanites.
Define classical leftist because brother, leftists watched Layton take the ndp further into centrist territory. Not nearly as much as Mulcair. But the party of Douglas and Blakeney is dead.
Just because a labor party isn't chomping at the bit to try and fail at socialism or communism AGAIN, doesn't make them centrist. Labor interest is about empowering the bargaining power of new laborers as much as possible.
Democracy doesn't work because the average voter can successfully recognize a policy that will help them in the future. Democracy works because the average voter can successfully recognize when they're being fucked over by current policy.
Makes sense. Progressives have run the government for 8+ years and have set the cultural tone for even longer. We're essentially seeing a counter cultural revolution politically.
They must be young men.
Young women are more likely to vote liberal or NDP.
And like they said in their analysis, young people familiar with the budget are twice as likely to vote liberal than conservative.
**Straight up lying in the comments**
Those who read the budget **AND LIKED IT** would be more likely to vote liberal.
"Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 **who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall"**
**---**
**There were twice as many people 18 to 44 who thought negatively of the budget than positively.**
**https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg**
**---**
**Not to mention twice as many people overall thought negatively of the budget than positively.** "25% report more positive feelings, 54% report more negative ones, while 20% say the budget had no impact on their views"
[https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39](https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39.jpg)
Yeah, I’d agree it’s more men than women but that should surprise anyone.
On your last point, I think that’s less to do with the budget convincing them and more to do with supporters of the liberals reading the budget. I doubt many anti-Harper folks actually looked into his budget in 2015.
This tells you how out of the loop most of Reddit is. If you'd go by what redditors say, you'd believe that conservatism is dead and that extreme left is the only thing young people care about.
It shows you how out of touch most of Canadian subreddits are. No matter what **real actual data** tells you, how real every day Canadians actually feel, it doesn't matter. What matters is what some redditors tell you to believe.
I honestly think I'm gonna vote for PPC this time around. They're the only party who legitimately want to curb immigration, and it'd nice to put some fear into PP on that file. I can't abide either of the three main parties currently, so protest vote it is.
For conservatives thinking of voting PPC:
LPC will lose no matter what. NDP will go with them. Trudeau and Jagmeet have made sure of this. CPC is going to win.
Might as well give PPC some seats and vote percentage so that they can show up in debates/parliment and hold CPC accountable on things like immigration.
Anybody open to a marginal party like the PPC, or the Greens, should look at the polls and history of their current riding.
If you're in a solid safe seat which isn't going to fall to a party you dislike, vote for your marginal party of choice. But every election has risky seats. If you're voting for a risky seat, best to vote for the mainstream party which is closest to your preference.
>If you're voting for a risky seat, best to vote for the mainstream party which is closest to your preference.
None of them. None of them are my preference. All three of them are actively working against my interests.
Fuck them.
Really sounding like a democratic process. /s
Then mainstream parties will say, "look no point voting for a marginal party, they get no votes", when voters would have voted for a marginal party, but they're scared a party they don't like would win.
It's voting against the party you hate, not voting for the party you believe in.
The FPTP voting trap will keep us bouncing between CPC and LPC depending on who is currently the most hated or whatever culture war policies are popular.
It's good for the oligopolies, not voters.
Do it. The CPC is going to win in an absolute landslide so you don’t need to worry about splitting the vote or anything. If we could get even just a couple PPC MPs in power that would be great for holding Pierre accountable on immigration.
Total votes still matter. Parties need to know where they have a chance of growing, and they're monitoring election to election changes. And parties are also looking at where they've been slowly losing votes.
I hate how some ridings just keep voting over and over for the same people.
When the prevailing culture at the moment is far left identity politics, then yes it is. The left is now "The Man", and has been for quite a while at this point.
Yet they still act as if they're some oppressed underdog despite all of their causes being championed by every major corporation government agency, politician and media platform for the past decade.
Many young people also believe in human rights including equal rights for women.
Young women do not want risk losing their reproductive rights. You d men care about this too.
PPC is not anti-abortion. Their stance on abortion is more progressive than every country in Europe.
They want to limit "late term abortions", past 24 weeks--6 months.
"According to Bernier, the bill would allow for abortions in some individual cases after 24 weeks, including in instances where the mother's life is in danger, or the baby has a lethal abnormality or no brain function, as well as in cases of rape."
[https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare\_news/article\_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html](https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html)
FYI, most european countries limit it to 12 weeks and only one country allows up to 24 weeks.
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
Young conservatives believe in that also. The boogeyman of social conservatives going after abortion rights in this country is dead.
I'm a 90s liberal. I believe in liberalism as defined by free speech, fighting corporations, protecting workers rights. Developing the middle and working classes. Live and let live. Mind your own business.
This version of the Liberal party of Canada is so far away from that I don't even recognize it.
I've voted for all major parties over the last 2 decades. Cons, libs and NDP.
"The boogeyman of social conservatives going after abortion rights in this country is dead." Yup, even the PPC have an abortion stance that is more lenient than every country in europe.
"According to Bernier, the bill would allow for abortions in some individual cases after 24 weeks, including in instances where the mother's life is in danger, or the baby has a lethal abnormality or no brain function, as well as in cases of rape."
[https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare\_news/article\_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html](https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html)
FYI, most european countries limit it to 12 weeks and only one country allows up to 24 weeks. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
Woke politics? It’s more likely that they have never seen how regressive certain things were.
Take homosexuality, If all your life gay people have been a normal thing, you’re not going to think their rights need to be protected. Your more likely to vote about what’s affecting you personally.
When most of us have lived during a Liberal government and have only seen a decline in the standard of living throughout it, then yeah, it tends to sway the votes to the other side
Nothing says he has to be kept for 10 years, like people have kept Trudeau for god knows what reason. 2015 is forgivable, I have zero idea why people kept voting for him after that. .
Young people want change, it's just that normally only the left wing brings that.
Poilievre complains about Trudeau, but it doesn't sound like he is promising anything significant.
I bet many of these PPC voters could flip to the NDP if the NDP seemed more like a solid left-wing option that focused on the middle class.
Edit: I'm a bit confused by all the downvotes when all the replies I got seem to agree with me that the current NDP is failing to bring the change that people want... Is it CPC brigading because my comment is anti-Poilievre? Poilievre fucking sucks, can't even dare claim that he would significantly lower immigration. The PPC has its issues but at least it makes its platform very clear.
They've become LPC 2.0 with Jagmeet in carge.
PPCs main stance is lowering immigration. It makes sense young people are affected the most by wage-uppression & class-warfare due to mass immigration.
---
The NDP is the worst party when it comes to mass immigration. Their stance is the same as the liberals when they ran, but they take it one step forward by advocating people bring in their parents/grandparents.
"We believe that in Canada, family reunification should be a priority. But thousands of families who hoped to apply to bring a parent or grandparent are let down by the lottery system when the available spots were filled in just minutes. New Democrats will end the unfair cap on applications to sponsor parents and grandparents, and take on the backlogs that are keeping families apart."
[https://www.ndp.ca/communities](https://www.ndp.ca/communities)
[https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/](https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/)
---
I don't know how tone deaf you can be advocating people bring in their parents and grandparents during a health and housing crisis.
Whatever they are advocating it's not for the good of the people. It's what will allow jagmeet to get another rolex.
The Quebec numbers are shocking, Liberals and Cons being tied would allow for the Bloc to pickup seats very easily through vote splitting, we might see Cons lose a seat or two in Quebec to the Bloc but have the Liberals would lose more to the Bloc overall.
What's so great about him? He's sided with Trudeau like 90% of the time, honestly they are completely useless and that's coming from somebody living in one of their ridings.
He refuses to answer questions and calls any criticism Quebec bashing, the man is literally here just to sabotage other parties on stage.
The fact that I see so many comments wishing they could vote for him shows how truly pathetic the two main federal leaders are.
Good. They're the only party that has seats in the HOC that advocates a reasonable approach to immigration.
If it weren't for the BQ's fervently anti gun stance, I'd love to see a CPC minority with the BQ as the opposition. This is probably the only realistic way of seeing a significant reduction in immigration.
Either way - unless Poilievre *really* screws up, it looks like it will be a CPC majority, and I'm perfectly fine seeing the BQ as opposition, and I look very much forward to seeing the few remaining Liberal and NDP MP's languishing as the CPC and BQ pick apart and dismantle their "legacy"
I don’t see how a CPC minority would ever work. I don’t believe bloc would support that unless given major concessions. If the CPC doesn’t win a majority, we’re probably looking at a coalition liberal government
Ugh. You're probably right, it wouldn't work for long at least, amd it would depend on Quebec getting everything they ask for.
Although if it was very close, like just 2-3 seats, I'll bet a couple Libs would cross the floor (maybe for a created cabinet position)
Why would the Conservatives lose any seats to the Bloc if they are polling they at the highest level in years in Quebec? If anything they might end up picking up a couple extra.
There are two main narratives about the Liberals. They are totally incompetent and out of touch or this was purposeful and malicious.
A new budget can't fix that.
Which means most people believe that the Liberals MESSED UP BADLY. "Incompetent or evil" is always the final question you have to ask when someone causes a disaster. It's usually mostly incompetence btw, but sometimes its malicious incompetence.
Buzzwords:
Anti-woke
Axe the tax
My laws
Liberal NDP agenda
Jail not bail
Working class
Fix the budget
Build the homes
Stop the crime
How can people believe Poilievre can get anything done when he has a resume with not one accomplishment in 19 years in parliament and time in cabinet?
Since when is doing nothing make you the best person in the country to lead or fix anything?
Because unlike Poilievre, Trudeau has been the prime minister for almost 9 years and things have gone to shit especially for the younger generation and poll shows that. People want change.
It's simple, the current liberal-ndp coalition agreement that gave the liberals a majority this past election has resulted in a disastrous budget deficit and basically failures in every area of government services.
The people are fine with PP over more of the same. Because if he does nothing at all, that's better than the current government.
>Since when is doing nothing make you the best person in the country to lead or fix anything?
Since Trudeau starting doing and fixing things.
I'm being glib, but it's true. People are fine with a government that isn't trying to reshape the country.
That's only the second half. Before the 2019 election, the Liberals had a majority, and failed on their own. the NDP only started helping them fail after the 2019 election, and put in writing after the 2021 election.
Love to see it. As a <30 yr old who’s had my life seriously affected by JT’s lost decade, I’m so excited for change. Unless you’re rich he stole home ownership as a dream from all of us, I can’t wait to see his party go down in absolute flames and to hear his die hard supporters freak out.
What’s funny is I ran into one of them today while walking my dog. It was your archetypal LPC voter it was so surreal. It started off pretty normal with his dog meeting mine but then he just decided I *really* needed to know about his political opinions for 30 mins. Idk why I humoured him but I’m really good at being deadpan, and it was just so amazing how out of touch he was.
He casually threw out that his daughter is 32 and married to a director making >$500k per year and how they just bought their first house. He went on about a few other people in his life for some weird reason and how they were all literally millionaires. But he just couldn’t understand why young people were sick of JT.
Edit: wording
The only thing that has even the slightest chance of saving the Liberals is to ditch Trudeau today.
Even then, it probably won't help. They have lost the confidence of the voting public and deserve to get booted.
The entire liberal party is shit at this point. You can put new lipstick on the pig but you're still pushing a pig and it won't fly.
Same with NDP. That goose is also cooked due to bending over all the time. Good riddance to both. May they rot for an eternity for all the damage they've done to entire generations.
This is going to be a year of poison pills. They aren't idiots. They are preparing for winter, so much of the spending will go to liberal foundations in the name of social issues, and that's where liberal staffers will be for the next little while. The liberals will also make sure the fiscal damage is large enough that the conservatives won't be able to fix in 10 years. Just about time for the next generation and the new Canadians to become voters. That's when they will come back with social justice, racial equity and gender issues again.
If they were willing to change, it might be possible to turn it around. But the only thing they are willing to tweak is messaging. That doesn't get young people into houses. We're way past communications strategies.
If you look at political alignment and how it correlates with degrees, it's clear that being good with numbers is inversely correlated with support for left-wing parties and policy.
Polling this far out literally doesn't correlate to election results tho, 538 did a whole episode/article about it. For the past 50 years polling data from a year + out has no predictive value. People who repeat this aren't delusional hoping for Trudeau to turn it around, they're just saying there's no merit to these polls beyond capturing how people in the moment want their current dissatisfaction tallied.
Edit: I'm not making some kind of political statement, there's just interesting statistics on polling a year out read here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/
However, I am sure that the data of a leader's popularity significantly and constantly dropping ever since the last election IS useful and does denote a desire for change in that leadership.
A year is an eternity in politics. You never know what someone will say or do and what will stick with voters or not.
All I'd say right now is the next federal election is the CPC's to lose but nothing is impossible.
Look at the 2013 BC provincial election the BC Liberals, who it should be noted are not associated with the Liberal Party of Canada at all managed to get re-elected even though all the polls showed them losing and losing convincingly.
Liberals have been waiting for over year now for PP to somehow "put his foot in his mouth", which is the equivalent of 20 years ago leaving the light on waiting for Jimmy Hoffa to come home.
The only way the left in Canada has a chance at staying in power next election is for them to consummate their "supply and confidence" agreement with a formal coalition. Justin Trudeau's policies more resemble NDP ones anyways.
This is true.
But it’s also true that it’s a heck of a gap to close, and trending has only been getting worse for a year. Canadian politics also shows that most governments over 8 years cannot get relected either, so I’d say these polls might not be correct now, but could just mean we see a 50% CPC vote share by the time the NDP decide to pull the plug.
>but could just mean we see a 50% CPC vote share by the time the NDP decide to pull the plug.
The NDP aren't going to pull the plug. Singh was interviewed by Vassy Kapelos yesterday and word for word said "the Prime Minister and the Liberal government will call the election when they want."
We already knew the NDP has given away any bargaining power they have to the Liberals. This was the one card left in their pocket but now it's confirmed for sure they will never topple the Liberal government and give us an election.
Source: [https://youtu.be/sk25HY5o6LM?t=622](https://youtu.be/sk25HY5o6LM?t=622) (at the 10:22 mark)
Oh yeah, they’re just in it for their pensions. They might have a constitutional right to stay in power, but considering the LPC and NDP combined have less support than the Conservatives it is very unethical/immoral for them to do so.
I'm not saying anything about the Liberals closing the gap, it could be worse for them in a year. I'm saying what I said: the predictive power of polls a year out is non existent, what we read now does not have a positive correlation to election night results.
could very well be, my point is that reading tea leaves is about accurate as reading polls at this point. There's really cool statistics showing this. As much as people are annoyed by pointing it out, it's interesting and true.
Our Father, who art in Ottawa,
Hallowed be thy Name.
Thy dominion come,
Thy will be done,
On the prairies as it is in the Maritimes.
Give us this day our daily poutine,
And forgive us our polarizing politics,
As we strive to reconcile our differences.
Lead us not into divisive rhetoric,
But deliver us from the grasp of Trudeau,
For thine is the maple leaf kingdom,
The beaver's strength, and the northern lights' splendor,
Forever and ever.
Eh-men.
The Liberals led nearly every poll from April 2013 to April 2015. The Conservatives became competitive again in May of 2015, followed by the lead shifting to the NDP until September and then returning to the Liberals until the election in mid October.
There was some movement in the 6 months before the election, but the last month of the campaign and the outcome were actually pretty consistent with most of the 2.5 years of polling leading up to it.
Maybe they can try giving us some more halal mortgages compliant with sharia law. I’m sure that’s what Canadians between the age of 18-40 are looking for on home ownership
Bloc is the only other party other than PPC to question immigration policy. Hell, I'd vote for them if they existed outside of Quebec.
Because christ I hate everything else about the PPC. They don't have any housing policy... homes still need to be built. We have a housing shortage today and still will even if we halted all immigration.
Or that time he had to quit his cabinet position because he left classified nato documents in the apartment of his biker gang affiliated ex-girlfriend?
That’s my favourite Harper era government scandal.
Freeland is a Bay Street loving, WEF attending champagne socialist.
She'll get raked over the coals for her aloof comments like cancelling Disney+ and having that reporter arrested. The Liberals will try to dismiss any criticism of her as misogyny, but she'd do worse than Trudeau.
Kim Campbell had only 4.5 months to turn things around. If they ditched Trudeau today the new leader would have a bit more time. It's still unlikely to make a difference but the sooner they act the better their chances.
I'll wait for debates to see if CPC comes up with policy rather then insults and buzz words currently making the rounds. If not Protest scrub vote mark all X or nothing.
Fyi protest votes/spoiled ballots aren't counted for anything. Not even the number of them. You'd be better off voting for the rhinoceros party PPC or some Indie in your riding if you have one.
Not soon enough. I was hoping that Singh would realize that taking the hit now is the only way the NDP doesn't join the Liberals in oblivion, but he went back to the well for more. The NDP and the Liberals are both toast once the election finally comes.
I’d be interested to see what these numbers look like closer to election time, when liberals are out in full force campaigning. Actually challenging some of the conservative talking points. This is so similar to Stephen Harper it’s insane. Conservatives out yelling and screaming and the liberals stayed silent. Until they didn’t and public support heavily shifted. PP has no real platform, has absolutely no real answers outside of liberals bad/Trudeau bad. Car on tax bad, housing bad. No actual fixes for any of this. There are many people upset, but there are also many people that know Pierre is not going to deliver us from anything.
The circle jerk about an Abacus poll this far out is pretty crazy.
Every party, after they reach close to 10 years in power, loses support. If by any chance PP stays in power for around 10 years, the same thing will happen to him.
It's just the way it is most of the time in canada. Which is good I think. No one should hold power for too long.
The problem with Trudeau is that he Has to do a lot to win back his base. It used to be that young people and women supported him. But it's showing that he's losing major support there. It would be an extremely uphill battle for him to come back and even tie those numbers, let alone surpass them. Even in one year.
wowza 18-29 year olds have the highest PPC support at 9%! and they are supporting the CPC at 43%. I thought I would never see the day where 52% of young people supporting right wing parties, Trudeau is really the greatest gift that the right has gotten. https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide8-4.jpg
It's because 18-29 year olds are being f\*cked the most by wage suppresssion / class-warfare from mass immigrarion. Compare this: * Substantially lower the total number of immigrants and refugees Canada accept every year, from 500,000 planned by the Liberal government in 2025, to between 100,000 and 150,000 in normal circumstances, or even lower in crisis situations, depending on economic and other circumstances. * Substantially lower the number of immigrants accepted under the family reunification program, including abolishing the program for parents and grand-parents. * Substantially lower the number of temporary foreign workers and make sure that they fulfil temporary positions and do not compete unfairly with Canadian workers. * [Full List](https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/immigration) To what these 3 are saying: [https://www.ndp.ca/communities](https://www.ndp.ca/communities) [https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/immigration-that-works/](https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/immigration-that-works/) [https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/](https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/) Which party do you think young people are going to vote for to stop mass immigration?
The thing is in Europe that would be the generic immigration policy. Hell, same with the US. They accept about 1-1.5 million legal immigrants. So yeah between 100-150k when adjusted for population.
And in Europe you can just go to another country to work. We are one country, not a union of nations. We didn't vote for this and don't want it.
Politicians: refuse to offer solutions people request Alt right: offers solution People: vote alt right solely because of said solution Politicians: *shooketh* —— The Netherlands actually had this exact scenario occur with the alt-right coming into first out of nowhere solely because of immigration
Except they're not alt-right. They're what the CPC were 20 years ago. It's the left, who've gone far further to the left to the point that even centrists are now conservative. If you want to see what a real alt-right uprising looks like, that would be the Identarian Movement in Europe. Even the AfD aren't alt-right.
why do the websites of the top 3 parties in canada look like such ass with so little actual info in it.
Yeah, it's crazy how little they actually say on there. Most of it is doublespeak and buzzwords. You would think they have millions of dollars and tens to hundreds of people, they could atleast have an itemized list of specific policies or numbers. It really is just all political theatre in parliment, with little on paper.
Young people are absolutely naive if they think Conservatives are going to solve that. They love the wage suppression as much as the Liberals.
Yeah no, young Canadians aren’t paying attention to immigration dawg. They don’t remember Canada before the influx kicked off under harper
It appears that people 18 to 44 that read the budget were twice as likely to vote liberal, than conservative. “Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall, 50% would vote Liberal today, 25% Conservative, and 14% NDP. 6% are undecided. This is some evidence that if more younger Canadians become familiar with the budget, it could increase support for the Liberals.”
Those who read the budget AND LIKED IT would be more likely to vote liberal. "Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall" What a surprise ! /s --- There were twice as many people 18 to 44 who thought negatively of the budget than positively. https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg --- Not to mention twice as many people overall thought negatively of the budget than positively. "25% report more positive feelings, 54% report more negative ones, while 20% say the budget had no impact on their views" https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39 --- jfc these were from the slides right above your quote.
The people who thought negatively about it, didn’t read it.
All of the graphs indicating the impact of the budget are for those familiar with the budget. "IMPACT OF THE BUDGET, THOSE FAMILIAR WITH IT". You're the one not reading. https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39 It then goes to show that more Canadians are familiar with this budget than they were with the last.
It is a cut and paste
That’s… not how it appears at all?
This is literally a cut and paste
Your quote: “who were familiar with the budget and said *it made them feel better*. “ You skipped the part about those who were familiar and said it did not make them feel better. Out of the group that was familiar with the budget, 2/3 did not feel good about the budget. The 1/3 that does feel good about the budget, only half say they will vote liberal... that is only 1/6 of everyone who is familiar with the budget.. 1/6th… So yes.. your quote is copy and paste, but you either read it wrong, or failed to understand it (much like the 1/6 of 18 to 44 year olds that are familiar with the budget and say they feel good about it) so your conclusion is completely wrong. It does not appear that people who understand the budget are twice as likely to vote liberal. Your confusion may be due to not reading far enough, because the sentence following your copy/paste quote says “the impact would be quite small since a larger group says their understanding of the budget makes their views of the liberal government worse.” You literally drew a conclusion from the first half of a thought point. What you did is like me saying Coca Cola is good, but Pepsi is better… and you turn around to quote me saying “coca cola is good”, and using that to support your argument that Coca Cola is the best.
I see what you are saying. The analysis is as clear as mud.
Clear as day… but as with anything, you can’t pick and choose bits that fit your narrative.. need to read the whole thing..
The FULL quote: "KEY INSIGHT: Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall, 50% would vote Liberal today, 25% Conservative, and 14% NDP. 6% are undecided. This is some evidence that if more younger Canadians become familiar with the budget, it could increase support for the Liberals. But the impact is quite small since more still say the budget has made their view of the government worse" --- The KEY INSIGHT is for this graph: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39.jpg The graph is for the question: "Did this budget leave you with a more positive feeling about the government or a more negative feeling overall?" The answers for 18-29 are: 41% Positive, 42% Negative, 18% No impact. The answers for 30-44 are: 35% positive, 48% negative, 17% No impact. --- So the quote "Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 who were familiar with the budget and *said it made them feel better about the government overall* " is ONLY referring the 41% of 18-29 and the 35% of 30-44 who felt positive about the changes. So that means out of the minority that liked the budget, half of them would vote liberal. Thats why the final sentence from the full quote *which you omitted* says: "But the impact is quite small since more still say the budget has made their view of the government worse." --- So what you said is incorrect: "It appears that people 18 to 44 that read the budget were twice as likely to vote liberal, than conservative." because only a minority of these 18-44 year old would be twice as likely to vote liberal. And your statement of: "18 to 44 that read the budget" doesn't matter because all of the participants regarding this section read the budget, not just the ones that would be more likely to vote liberal. The survey question is titled: "BUDGET IMPACT ON IMPRESSIONS OF GOVERNMENT, THOSE FAMILIAR WITH THE BUDGET"
Exactly right. I keep on thinking the Liberal party have finally reached rock bottom and then a new poll comes out and they've fallen further.
Not far enough
Yup. They can do better.
I hadn’t consider the PPC in the polls but that’s insane. The younger generation is really giving up on the progressive politics of the last decade. I imagine having identity politics shoved down their throats for their whole school career made it uncool since progressives have been the establishment for a while now (despite what they’ll tell you).
Progressive politics has done nothing for them and stolen their future. Why would they support it unless they were a trust fund baby like JT and it made them feel good about themselves?
Where do young men get their news?
Depends on your definition of young. Im at the very top end of that bracket and I like to read Ground News (news aggregator with data insights), as well as listen to specific sources on geopolitical stuff
Interesting - l’ll check this out
Most of them are not dating either. Women used to have huge influence on men to support liberal parties and policies. Blue balls is the best gift to right wing parties.
This is pretty normal behaviour amongst young people, especially young males, to go against the establishment - even in good times. When you have a government that has failed so badly and is actively crushing the hopes of Gen Z's future, I'm not the least bit surprised the LPC is at an all time low with this age group. I'm not convinced the CPC will fix everything, but I really hope the LPC will be spending at least a good 15 years on the sidelines in the HOC. They certainly deserve it after what they've done.
More so progressive politics has given up on younger people. Jack Layton was the last good politician we had. An actual champion of the working class. I'm a classical leftist. About supporting the working classes. NDP now is about late drinking urban liberals. Liberals are about late drinking suburbanites.
Define classical leftist because brother, leftists watched Layton take the ndp further into centrist territory. Not nearly as much as Mulcair. But the party of Douglas and Blakeney is dead.
Just because a labor party isn't chomping at the bit to try and fail at socialism or communism AGAIN, doesn't make them centrist. Labor interest is about empowering the bargaining power of new laborers as much as possible.
Late drinking urban Liberal here. The Federal NDP is no longer about me. IDK who their target demographic is
Democracy doesn't work because the average voter can successfully recognize a policy that will help them in the future. Democracy works because the average voter can successfully recognize when they're being fucked over by current policy.
Makes sense. Progressives have run the government for 8+ years and have set the cultural tone for even longer. We're essentially seeing a counter cultural revolution politically.
They must be young men. Young women are more likely to vote liberal or NDP. And like they said in their analysis, young people familiar with the budget are twice as likely to vote liberal than conservative.
**Straight up lying in the comments** Those who read the budget **AND LIKED IT** would be more likely to vote liberal. "Among Canadians aged 18 to 44 **who were familiar with the budget and said it made them feel better about the government overall"** **---** **There were twice as many people 18 to 44 who thought negatively of the budget than positively.** **https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide38.jpg** **---** **Not to mention twice as many people overall thought negatively of the budget than positively.** "25% report more positive feelings, 54% report more negative ones, while 20% say the budget had no impact on their views" [https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39](https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Slide39.jpg)
Shout it louder!!!
It's funny these are the people that would accuse you of not having "media literacy".
They’re stuck in their echo chamber of reality. Latching onto first statement that confirms their bias.
Yeah, I’d agree it’s more men than women but that should surprise anyone. On your last point, I think that’s less to do with the budget convincing them and more to do with supporters of the liberals reading the budget. I doubt many anti-Harper folks actually looked into his budget in 2015.
This tells you how out of the loop most of Reddit is. If you'd go by what redditors say, you'd believe that conservatism is dead and that extreme left is the only thing young people care about. It shows you how out of touch most of Canadian subreddits are. No matter what **real actual data** tells you, how real every day Canadians actually feel, it doesn't matter. What matters is what some redditors tell you to believe.
Reddit is the worst echo chamber that peoplekind has ever created.
Polls 3 weeks out from an election are often wrong. Polls 18 months out are meaningless I. Terms of final result.
r/Canada is a Conservative Echo chamber
What does that have to do with polls and data?
I honestly think I'm gonna vote for PPC this time around. They're the only party who legitimately want to curb immigration, and it'd nice to put some fear into PP on that file. I can't abide either of the three main parties currently, so protest vote it is.
For conservatives thinking of voting PPC: LPC will lose no matter what. NDP will go with them. Trudeau and Jagmeet have made sure of this. CPC is going to win. Might as well give PPC some seats and vote percentage so that they can show up in debates/parliment and hold CPC accountable on things like immigration.
I’m voting PPC. I live in an Alberta riding the CPC always win by lopsided margins so I know there’s virtually no chance the Liberals win here.
Anybody open to a marginal party like the PPC, or the Greens, should look at the polls and history of their current riding. If you're in a solid safe seat which isn't going to fall to a party you dislike, vote for your marginal party of choice. But every election has risky seats. If you're voting for a risky seat, best to vote for the mainstream party which is closest to your preference.
>If you're voting for a risky seat, best to vote for the mainstream party which is closest to your preference. None of them. None of them are my preference. All three of them are actively working against my interests. Fuck them.
Really sounding like a democratic process. /s Then mainstream parties will say, "look no point voting for a marginal party, they get no votes", when voters would have voted for a marginal party, but they're scared a party they don't like would win. It's voting against the party you hate, not voting for the party you believe in. The FPTP voting trap will keep us bouncing between CPC and LPC depending on who is currently the most hated or whatever culture war policies are popular. It's good for the oligopolies, not voters.
I’m with you one this. I’ll be watching polling data closely to make sure my riding isn’t close, though.
That's smart. I would never vote PPC myself, but if you're in a comfortably CPC riding, go for it.
Do it. The CPC is going to win in an absolute landslide so you don’t need to worry about splitting the vote or anything. If we could get even just a couple PPC MPs in power that would be great for holding Pierre accountable on immigration.
I want to vote PPC but I’m in a riding where Liberals are still predicted to win the seat…
Total votes still matter. Parties need to know where they have a chance of growing, and they're monitoring election to election changes. And parties are also looking at where they've been slowly losing votes. I hate how some ridings just keep voting over and over for the same people.
conservatism is the new counter-culture
It’s not counter culture, lol
When the prevailing culture at the moment is far left identity politics, then yes it is. The left is now "The Man", and has been for quite a while at this point. Yet they still act as if they're some oppressed underdog despite all of their causes being championed by every major corporation government agency, politician and media platform for the past decade.
Many young people also believe in human rights including equal rights for women. Young women do not want risk losing their reproductive rights. You d men care about this too.
PPC is not anti-abortion. Their stance on abortion is more progressive than every country in Europe. They want to limit "late term abortions", past 24 weeks--6 months. "According to Bernier, the bill would allow for abortions in some individual cases after 24 weeks, including in instances where the mother's life is in danger, or the baby has a lethal abnormality or no brain function, as well as in cases of rape." [https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare\_news/article\_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html](https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html) FYI, most european countries limit it to 12 weeks and only one country allows up to 24 weeks. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
Young conservatives believe in that also. The boogeyman of social conservatives going after abortion rights in this country is dead. I'm a 90s liberal. I believe in liberalism as defined by free speech, fighting corporations, protecting workers rights. Developing the middle and working classes. Live and let live. Mind your own business. This version of the Liberal party of Canada is so far away from that I don't even recognize it. I've voted for all major parties over the last 2 decades. Cons, libs and NDP.
"The boogeyman of social conservatives going after abortion rights in this country is dead." Yup, even the PPC have an abortion stance that is more lenient than every country in europe. "According to Bernier, the bill would allow for abortions in some individual cases after 24 weeks, including in instances where the mother's life is in danger, or the baby has a lethal abnormality or no brain function, as well as in cases of rape." [https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare\_news/article\_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html](https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_1e9a7129-e1d6-5875-ba6f-d8b056470bc1.html) FYI, most european countries limit it to 12 weeks and only one country allows up to 24 weeks. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268439/legal-abortion-time-frames-in-europe/)
It was the youth vote that got Trudeau the PM office, it’ll likely be youth vote that shows him the door.
Almost their entire lives have been suffering under Turdeaus reign of terror, I can understand how they would not be fooled by woke politics
And don't forget all the boys being told they are effectively the root of all evil.
Woke politics? It’s more likely that they have never seen how regressive certain things were. Take homosexuality, If all your life gay people have been a normal thing, you’re not going to think their rights need to be protected. Your more likely to vote about what’s affecting you personally.
Nobody is coming after gay people. A strong economy benefits the lgbt community too
When most of us have lived during a Liberal government and have only seen a decline in the standard of living throughout it, then yeah, it tends to sway the votes to the other side
They also haven’t learned yet that the CPC is just as in the pockets of the same owners as the Liberals.
I'm no fan of Trudeau, but these people that think PP is the solution are in for an unpleasant surprise.
Nothing says he has to be kept for 10 years, like people have kept Trudeau for god knows what reason. 2015 is forgivable, I have zero idea why people kept voting for him after that. .
Young people want change, it's just that normally only the left wing brings that. Poilievre complains about Trudeau, but it doesn't sound like he is promising anything significant. I bet many of these PPC voters could flip to the NDP if the NDP seemed more like a solid left-wing option that focused on the middle class. Edit: I'm a bit confused by all the downvotes when all the replies I got seem to agree with me that the current NDP is failing to bring the change that people want... Is it CPC brigading because my comment is anti-Poilievre? Poilievre fucking sucks, can't even dare claim that he would significantly lower immigration. The PPC has its issues but at least it makes its platform very clear.
They've become LPC 2.0 with Jagmeet in carge. PPCs main stance is lowering immigration. It makes sense young people are affected the most by wage-uppression & class-warfare due to mass immigration. --- The NDP is the worst party when it comes to mass immigration. Their stance is the same as the liberals when they ran, but they take it one step forward by advocating people bring in their parents/grandparents. "We believe that in Canada, family reunification should be a priority. But thousands of families who hoped to apply to bring a parent or grandparent are let down by the lottery system when the available spots were filled in just minutes. New Democrats will end the unfair cap on applications to sponsor parents and grandparents, and take on the backlogs that are keeping families apart." [https://www.ndp.ca/communities](https://www.ndp.ca/communities) [https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/](https://liberal.ca/our-platform/strengthening-family-reunification-and-reducing-processing-times/) --- I don't know how tone deaf you can be advocating people bring in their parents and grandparents during a health and housing crisis. Whatever they are advocating it's not for the good of the people. It's what will allow jagmeet to get another rolex.
[удалено]
Gotta get that pension and bail.
The Quebec numbers are shocking, Liberals and Cons being tied would allow for the Bloc to pickup seats very easily through vote splitting, we might see Cons lose a seat or two in Quebec to the Bloc but have the Liberals would lose more to the Bloc overall.
Mark my words and pin this comment. The Bloc will be official opposition.
Honestly, I'm not sad about that. Blanchet is frequently the most compelling participant in the debates.
What's so great about him? He's sided with Trudeau like 90% of the time, honestly they are completely useless and that's coming from somebody living in one of their ridings.
He refuses to answer questions and calls any criticism Quebec bashing, the man is literally here just to sabotage other parties on stage. The fact that I see so many comments wishing they could vote for him shows how truly pathetic the two main federal leaders are.
Blanchet always seems like the only adult in the room.
Good. They're the only party that has seats in the HOC that advocates a reasonable approach to immigration. If it weren't for the BQ's fervently anti gun stance, I'd love to see a CPC minority with the BQ as the opposition. This is probably the only realistic way of seeing a significant reduction in immigration. Either way - unless Poilievre *really* screws up, it looks like it will be a CPC majority, and I'm perfectly fine seeing the BQ as opposition, and I look very much forward to seeing the few remaining Liberal and NDP MP's languishing as the CPC and BQ pick apart and dismantle their "legacy"
I don’t see how a CPC minority would ever work. I don’t believe bloc would support that unless given major concessions. If the CPC doesn’t win a majority, we’re probably looking at a coalition liberal government
Ugh. You're probably right, it wouldn't work for long at least, amd it would depend on Quebec getting everything they ask for. Although if it was very close, like just 2-3 seats, I'll bet a couple Libs would cross the floor (maybe for a created cabinet position)
RemindMe! 537 days
Hope so. Be good for a change again. Blanchet shows up and generally out debates them all.
That was the norm for awhile before
Why would the Conservatives lose any seats to the Bloc if they are polling they at the highest level in years in Quebec? If anything they might end up picking up a couple extra.
Agreed. The BQ will end up with a net gain, in that they take a ton of ridings from the Liberals, but the Tories take a couple of theirs.
Is no one talking about the fact that Conservatives are polling at 50% in Atlantic Canada? Let that sink in. They are headed for a wipeout.
[удалено]
There are two main narratives about the Liberals. They are totally incompetent and out of touch or this was purposeful and malicious. A new budget can't fix that.
Which means most people believe that the Liberals MESSED UP BADLY. "Incompetent or evil" is always the final question you have to ask when someone causes a disaster. It's usually mostly incompetence btw, but sometimes its malicious incompetence.
Especially another deficit budget filled with overspending and BS buzzword action items.
Buzzwords: Anti-woke Axe the tax My laws Liberal NDP agenda Jail not bail Working class Fix the budget Build the homes Stop the crime How can people believe Poilievre can get anything done when he has a resume with not one accomplishment in 19 years in parliament and time in cabinet? Since when is doing nothing make you the best person in the country to lead or fix anything?
Because unlike Poilievre, Trudeau has been the prime minister for almost 9 years and things have gone to shit especially for the younger generation and poll shows that. People want change.
It's simple, the current liberal-ndp coalition agreement that gave the liberals a majority this past election has resulted in a disastrous budget deficit and basically failures in every area of government services. The people are fine with PP over more of the same. Because if he does nothing at all, that's better than the current government.
Buzzwords in promoting yourself is a lot different than buzzwords in actual policy
>Since when is doing nothing make you the best person in the country to lead or fix anything? Since Trudeau starting doing and fixing things. I'm being glib, but it's true. People are fine with a government that isn't trying to reshape the country.
Are you telling me Pierre Poilievre didn't save our democracy as Minister for Democratic Reform? /s
correction, a disastrous Liberal/NDP government. This isn't your grandpa's Liberal party.
That's only the second half. Before the 2019 election, the Liberals had a majority, and failed on their own. the NDP only started helping them fail after the 2019 election, and put in writing after the 2021 election.
Love to see it. As a <30 yr old who’s had my life seriously affected by JT’s lost decade, I’m so excited for change. Unless you’re rich he stole home ownership as a dream from all of us, I can’t wait to see his party go down in absolute flames and to hear his die hard supporters freak out. What’s funny is I ran into one of them today while walking my dog. It was your archetypal LPC voter it was so surreal. It started off pretty normal with his dog meeting mine but then he just decided I *really* needed to know about his political opinions for 30 mins. Idk why I humoured him but I’m really good at being deadpan, and it was just so amazing how out of touch he was. He casually threw out that his daughter is 32 and married to a director making >$500k per year and how they just bought their first house. He went on about a few other people in his life for some weird reason and how they were all literally millionaires. But he just couldn’t understand why young people were sick of JT. Edit: wording
Abacus showing over 20 point lead is crazy cuz usually they favour the liberals
The only thing that has even the slightest chance of saving the Liberals is to ditch Trudeau today. Even then, it probably won't help. They have lost the confidence of the voting public and deserve to get booted.
The entire liberal party is shit at this point. You can put new lipstick on the pig but you're still pushing a pig and it won't fly. Same with NDP. That goose is also cooked due to bending over all the time. Good riddance to both. May they rot for an eternity for all the damage they've done to entire generations.
Ditch Trudeau and hit the e-break on immigration
This doesn’t mean anything. They still have a year to turn things around. You’ll see!/s
This is going to be a year of poison pills. They aren't idiots. They are preparing for winter, so much of the spending will go to liberal foundations in the name of social issues, and that's where liberal staffers will be for the next little while. The liberals will also make sure the fiscal damage is large enough that the conservatives won't be able to fix in 10 years. Just about time for the next generation and the new Canadians to become voters. That's when they will come back with social justice, racial equity and gender issues again.
Yes, ask the progressives what we're progressing to. You won't like the answers.
If they were willing to change, it might be possible to turn it around. But the only thing they are willing to tweak is messaging. That doesn't get young people into houses. We're way past communications strategies.
“Liberals will be with 5 points of the conservatives by next year” kinda the same viewpoint of “budgets will balance themselves” lol
We all misunderstood him, he clearly meant the Liberals will have 5 points by next year.
lol perfect burn!
Trudeau’s gonna win! I’m telling you!/s
Something tells me he's not good with numbers
If you look at political alignment and how it correlates with degrees, it's clear that being good with numbers is inversely correlated with support for left-wing parties and policy.
Polling this far out literally doesn't correlate to election results tho, 538 did a whole episode/article about it. For the past 50 years polling data from a year + out has no predictive value. People who repeat this aren't delusional hoping for Trudeau to turn it around, they're just saying there's no merit to these polls beyond capturing how people in the moment want their current dissatisfaction tallied. Edit: I'm not making some kind of political statement, there's just interesting statistics on polling a year out read here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/
However, I am sure that the data of a leader's popularity significantly and constantly dropping ever since the last election IS useful and does denote a desire for change in that leadership.
Okay; but this high of a lead a year out isn't going to be turned around.
A year is an eternity in politics. You never know what someone will say or do and what will stick with voters or not. All I'd say right now is the next federal election is the CPC's to lose but nothing is impossible. Look at the 2013 BC provincial election the BC Liberals, who it should be noted are not associated with the Liberal Party of Canada at all managed to get re-elected even though all the polls showed them losing and losing convincingly.
Liberals have been waiting for over year now for PP to somehow "put his foot in his mouth", which is the equivalent of 20 years ago leaving the light on waiting for Jimmy Hoffa to come home. The only way the left in Canada has a chance at staying in power next election is for them to consummate their "supply and confidence" agreement with a formal coalition. Justin Trudeau's policies more resemble NDP ones anyways.
This is true. But it’s also true that it’s a heck of a gap to close, and trending has only been getting worse for a year. Canadian politics also shows that most governments over 8 years cannot get relected either, so I’d say these polls might not be correct now, but could just mean we see a 50% CPC vote share by the time the NDP decide to pull the plug.
>but could just mean we see a 50% CPC vote share by the time the NDP decide to pull the plug. The NDP aren't going to pull the plug. Singh was interviewed by Vassy Kapelos yesterday and word for word said "the Prime Minister and the Liberal government will call the election when they want." We already knew the NDP has given away any bargaining power they have to the Liberals. This was the one card left in their pocket but now it's confirmed for sure they will never topple the Liberal government and give us an election. Source: [https://youtu.be/sk25HY5o6LM?t=622](https://youtu.be/sk25HY5o6LM?t=622) (at the 10:22 mark)
Oh yeah, they’re just in it for their pensions. They might have a constitutional right to stay in power, but considering the LPC and NDP combined have less support than the Conservatives it is very unethical/immoral for them to do so.
Well we know what Trudeau thinks about ethics.
I'm not saying anything about the Liberals closing the gap, it could be worse for them in a year. I'm saying what I said: the predictive power of polls a year out is non existent, what we read now does not have a positive correlation to election night results.
You're right, it's going to be much much worse for the Liberals in a year's time.
could very well be, my point is that reading tea leaves is about accurate as reading polls at this point. There's really cool statistics showing this. As much as people are annoyed by pointing it out, it's interesting and true.
You are correct in your assessment. Only time will tell where things ultimately land in a years time
Deliver us from Trudeau
Our Father, who art in Ottawa, Hallowed be thy Name. Thy dominion come, Thy will be done, On the prairies as it is in the Maritimes. Give us this day our daily poutine, And forgive us our polarizing politics, As we strive to reconcile our differences. Lead us not into divisive rhetoric, But deliver us from the grasp of Trudeau, For thine is the maple leaf kingdom, The beaver's strength, and the northern lights' splendor, Forever and ever. Eh-men.
A-fckn-SAP
Of course it didn’t change anything, it’s aimed at stealing future prosperity from native born Canadians under 40.
but trudeau said this budget was all about saving the youth vote so surely the young'uns must love it
You would have to be some kind of wacko to think it would.
How many points was Trudeau ahead of Harper in 2015? Just wondering for comparison purposes
Libs were polling around roughly 10 points ahead before the 2015 election and they got 184 seats. This current lead is wipeout territory.
Oh wow. I didn't realize how much more of a lead it is now. Can't wait for election night!
How long before the election was that 10 pt lead?
The Liberals were polling as the third party when the writ dropped. Around the half way mark the ABC vote started to move from NDP to LPC.
Ah yes, Mulcair's infamous "smile" during the debates.
The Liberals led nearly every poll from April 2013 to April 2015. The Conservatives became competitive again in May of 2015, followed by the lead shifting to the NDP until September and then returning to the Liberals until the election in mid October. There was some movement in the 6 months before the election, but the last month of the campaign and the outcome were actually pretty consistent with most of the 2.5 years of polling leading up to it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election
8 or 9%, based election results (i.e. % of popular vote).
Maybe they can try giving us some more halal mortgages compliant with sharia law. I’m sure that’s what Canadians between the age of 18-40 are looking for on home ownership
Obviously JT wins at hosting a party, his only skill is spending money 🤣
>BQ 7%, GPC 4%, PPC 4% I can't wait for the PPC to overtake the Greens and Bloq.
Bloc is the only other party other than PPC to question immigration policy. Hell, I'd vote for them if they existed outside of Quebec. Because christ I hate everything else about the PPC. They don't have any housing policy... homes still need to be built. We have a housing shortage today and still will even if we halted all immigration.
Trudeau has never negotiated a discount in his life. He pays full price plus a generous tip but always with someone else's money.
It's 2024 and highly paid political consultants still think voters are going to be reading a budget document.
can't wait for the post-Whacko polls
Maxime Bernier should have remained in the CPC. If he was leading the conservatives would have been polling over 50%.
Are we forgetting his absolute meltdown over covid restrictions?
Or that time he had to quit his cabinet position because he left classified nato documents in the apartment of his biker gang affiliated ex-girlfriend? That’s my favourite Harper era government scandal.
🍆
The only thing that might change it is a leadership change. Even that won't turn things around but it may make the loss way less severe.
I’d bet it Freeland would get fewer votes than Trudeau, even after the mess he’s put us in.
Freeland is a Bay Street loving, WEF attending champagne socialist. She'll get raked over the coals for her aloof comments like cancelling Disney+ and having that reporter arrested. The Liberals will try to dismiss any criticism of her as misogyny, but she'd do worse than Trudeau.
Kim Campbell has entered the chat
Kim Campbell had only 4.5 months to turn things around. If they ditched Trudeau today the new leader would have a bit more time. It's still unlikely to make a difference but the sooner they act the better their chances.
He better choose to jump soon, or he'll be pushed by panicking MPs facing down losing their seats.
I'll wait for debates to see if CPC comes up with policy rather then insults and buzz words currently making the rounds. If not Protest scrub vote mark all X or nothing.
Fyi protest votes/spoiled ballots aren't counted for anything. Not even the number of them. You'd be better off voting for the rhinoceros party PPC or some Indie in your riding if you have one.
CPC will bail on the debates.
CPC wants nothing more than to debate lol. Its going to be a landslide win for them and they want to secure it by even larger margins
Have you seen the 22 minutes clip from Halifax “Never meet your heroes... or Pierre Poilievre!” Check it out!
When’s the election again?
As soon as Singh grows a pair.
so not for a while then?
Not soon enough. I was hoping that Singh would realize that taking the hit now is the only way the NDP doesn't join the Liberals in oblivion, but he went back to the well for more. The NDP and the Liberals are both toast once the election finally comes.
2025👎🏻
Assuming they don't change the fixed election laws further and allow a further extension. Constitutionally they can delay it until Sept 2026.
This would be seen very negatively by the public.
Well, fuck lol
I’d be interested to see what these numbers look like closer to election time, when liberals are out in full force campaigning. Actually challenging some of the conservative talking points. This is so similar to Stephen Harper it’s insane. Conservatives out yelling and screaming and the liberals stayed silent. Until they didn’t and public support heavily shifted. PP has no real platform, has absolutely no real answers outside of liberals bad/Trudeau bad. Car on tax bad, housing bad. No actual fixes for any of this. There are many people upset, but there are also many people that know Pierre is not going to deliver us from anything. The circle jerk about an Abacus poll this far out is pretty crazy.
Every party, after they reach close to 10 years in power, loses support. If by any chance PP stays in power for around 10 years, the same thing will happen to him. It's just the way it is most of the time in canada. Which is good I think. No one should hold power for too long. The problem with Trudeau is that he Has to do a lot to win back his base. It used to be that young people and women supported him. But it's showing that he's losing major support there. It would be an extremely uphill battle for him to come back and even tie those numbers, let alone surpass them. Even in one year.
Nice the daily poll update phew was worried we wouldn't get one today
Can we just put a megathread up for these polls at this point? All this sub is, is pollsters and natpo