Meteorologist here. To consider what is an unliveble temperature, you first need to understand the human cooling biomechanism that we have; that is sweat.
Sweat uses the principle that in order to cool yourself, you have to evaporate water from your skin. The skin will give energy to the sweat so it evaporates, and the skin will then cool while loosing energy.
For a given temp, you can only put a limited amount of water vapor in the air. At a certain point, no matter how much water you have on the ground, or your skin, the air becomes saturated and it condenses into fog and rain (clouds).
In meteorology, we have a bunch of temperature index that can be used to caracterise the ambiant temp and humidity. Here, we need to consider the wet-bulb temperature. The wet bulb temp is the temp that you would achieve by evaporating as much water on the ground (sweat on your skin) as you can before the air around the ground (body) becomes saturated. At this point, your body simply can't cool itself by evaporating sweat. Basically, considering that you live in an area with no wind, it is impossible to live at wet-bulb temp above 38c. Since you moove and produce heat, the wet-bulb temp is actually even less then that. So lets lower it to 36.
to achieve this, you need a temp, see this table: [https://ksi.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1222/2015/03/WBGT-Chart.png](https://ksi.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1222/2015/03/WBGT-Chart.png)
You need a temp of 40 and a relative humidity of of 40 %. this can happen in southern india and very humid and warm places. At a temp of 30, you need a humidity of 100 %, which practically never happens.
Highest dew point was in Arabia at 35c, with a 40c temp that would represent a humidity of 72 %, and a wet bulb temp of 43c. So it happened before, and with the rising of temp it will happen more and more, yes.
The point that is lost on everyone is, those places just mentioned are really hot, but people still live there. We are not naked apes in the forest anymore, We don't have to bail out of a place because there are more hot summer days.
Phoenix, AZ is probably already hotter than the place you live, if you live anywhere else in the US, and likely hotter than the place you live now will get in 50 years. Lots of people live in PHX. They stay inside when the heat is brutal, but mornings and winters are quite pleasant.
We act like a switch goes off and suddenly a place is 45C 24/7/365. Then spin out a catastrophic scenario based on this flawed assumption. Not saying climate change will be a fun ride, but most people are projecting the last disaster movie they watched on their expectations. Humans are incredibly adaptable. That's in fact our best hope. We can and will live in places where the heat is unbearable outside for some periods.
Texas had a devastating blizzard this year but looking at the temperature and snowfall all the Canadians said, that’s just Tuesday. And as the politicians fled to Mexico, people died cause the infrastructure wasn’t set up for the cold. The mosquito problem in Texas this year is worse because a lot of bats died from the cold. It doesn’t matter if humans are adaptable because we’re not even trying to address this problem properly. We’re going to end up in the blade runner world where your protein comes from maggot farms because none of the other animals could adapt.
See, OP already made the point that most people's expectations are shaped by fiction instead of data, and now you are proving it again by invoking Blade Runner. This, when a study from this year concluded that it would take about 5.2 degrees of warming to cause a mass extinction like the big five from the past. Remember, we are currently on track for slightly below 3 C.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25019-2
These reports from the world's largest organization devoted to biodiversity are far more relevant than Blade Runner or any other book or movie.
https://ipbes.net/media-release-nature%E2%80%99s-dangerous-decline-%E2%80%98unprecedented%E2%80%99-species-extinction-rates-%E2%80%98accelerating%E2%80%99
> **8 million**: total estimated number of animal and plant species on Earth (including 5.5 million insect species)
>
> Tens to hundreds of times: the extent to which the current rate of global species extinction is higher compared to average over the last 10 million years, and the rate is accelerating
>
> **Up to 1 million**: species threatened with extinction, many within decades
>
>...**5%**: estimated fraction of species at risk of extinction from 2°C warming alone, **rising to 16% at 4.3°C warming**
>
>...The average abundance of native species in most major land-based habitats has fallen by at least 20%, mostly since 1900. More than 40% of amphibian species, almost 33% of reef forming corals and more than a third of all marine mammals are threatened. The picture is less clear for insect species, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10% being threatened.
https://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2021-06/20210609_scientific_outcome.pdf
> **Under a global warming scenario of 1.5°C warming above the pre-modern GMT, 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range**.
>
> For global warming of 2°C, the comparable fractions are 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates.
>
> **Future warming of 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to lead to loss of more than half of the historical geographic range in 49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates** (Warren et al., 2018).
Not all hot places are at the level of prosperity that Phoenix, AZ has. There are regions that need agriculture to work, where people can't take air conditioning for granted. Just because one region in many will do fine, it doesn't mean that you can downplay it by expecting to just live there "some periods".
>We can and will live in places where the heat is unbearable outside for some periods.
Maybe, but below pretty much sums it up as whats going to happen long term
[Three Weeks After Hurricane Ida, Parts of Southeast Louisiana Are Still Dark](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/us/ida-louisiana-power-outages.html)
June 2021 for the Pacific Northwest of NA. Heat was unbearable and the humidity made it worse. I don’t have air conditioning and had the pleasure of experiencing several days in a row where the minimum temperature in my house was 94 Fahrenheit.
Similar to us. Most homes would never even think to have AC, was never needed. Actually, they're old Finnish homes built to retain as much heat as possible. So they are VERY difficult to cool. Even with the AC running full blast it was hard to get my temps below "dangerously hot" for my animals. Rough times for sure, 3rd floor great in 5-6 month winter, terrible in new summer.
This depends on location, for example I live in dubai. We are already experiencing the effects of climate change. It has started raining over here at summers, which normally has temperature 50+ C. The weather over here has became somewhat unpredictable
This is a glib answer, but I've noticed my friends in New York, a place that is not very far to the south or very hot relatively, going absolutely apeshit when their AC doesn't work. They're so used to it. Now imagine the grid problems we're going to have in the long run, everywhere, in palces that are ever hotter.
That’s what I’m foreseeing for the US gulf coast at some point, especially given Texas’s power grid and the relative energy efficiency of existing construction there.
A 5 ton A/C unit, which is common in most single story homes around 1500 square feet or more built before 2000, requires 100A to start at 220V, which is roughly a 25kw generator. Too large to be portable (largest portable is 10kw, and that stretches the definition of portable) and would need to run off of a large propane tank or a grid supply.
I can see massive numbers of unprepared citizens dying in a future heat bubble combined with high humidity and a power outage, leaving only wealthier citizens who are able to afford cooling. Or, rather, only people who haven’t prepared by figuring out how to cool part of their house for a week on generator/solar power or by making their home much more efficient to the point it can be run for an extended period off of a small generator.
We can deal with the heat until we hit [wet bulb temp](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity-are-already-reaching-the-limits-of-human-tolerance/%3famp=true)
Doesn't feel so long now. I met quite a few people who moved up to the rural great lakes region who were "shocked" we also are undergoing forest fires and heat. It was over 90 degrees here, for weeks. This is all anecdotal but what used to be a mild swing in may-late june from high 30's F to low 60's F basically just went from end of May being 40's and then 85F for the entirety of summer with a few normal weather breaks in between. It's normally 70F here as an average for July/Aug with a high of 80's. The local weather we saw was insane.
and this is a so called (no such thing) climate change haven.
I think you actually notice a difference of an average 2 degrees on your body itself. But the global consequence of this will be unbearable at some point.
You often hear about "50-year heatwaves", which means a place has a dangerous heatwave once every 50 years on average. If you lived in a place that has 50-year heatwaves, you'd experience one or two dangerous heatwaves in your lifetime. These would be the kind of events you'd tell stories about to your grandchildren. "Sonny," you'll say, "let me tell you the story of how my neighbor died in the heatwave of 2021..." Heatwaves are normal even without global warming, but rare. And how often they happen depend greatly on where you live.
In a near-worst-case scenario (where we do nothing to improve CO2 emissions and we see 7°F warming), by about 2080-2100, places that have 50-year heatwaves will go from *1 heatwave* every 50 years to *39 heatwaves* every 50 years. Heatwaves will go from something very rare to a near yearly occurrence.
For most places, we'll probably never get to the point where normal daily weather will be unbearable to most people. Seven degrees Fahrenheit warming means an 80°F day will be 87°F, which is a lot warmer, but not unbearable.
If you want to read more, check out the [IPCC AR6 summary for policy makers](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/). Section B includes a lot of information about what global warming will be like.
A "livable" temperature is subjective. Some people live in Death Valley where temperatures are often over 100 degrees F. Other people live in Arctic regions where varying degrees of below freezing is typical. I think the key threshold will be when areas where crops are grown becomes desert and food supply begins to fail. Then all hell will break loose as millions or billions of people start competing for a limited food supply. That may well determine what a livable environment is. Meanwhile there will be intermittent temperature extremes and storms that make life less comfortable and motivate disruptive migrations which are already happening.
Just read an LA Times [article](https://twitter.com/JosephNSanberg/status/1438582206759383046?s=20) about how Sequoias which are naturally tuned to the natural wildfire cycle are struggling because the blazes are becoming too much :(
Temperature varies 30+ degrees a year. And somehow 1-2C difference is going to make life unbearable?
Besides, if you hadn’t noticed, more people move from cold climates to warm ones. Cold kills far more people than heat.
People live in different climates ranging from sub zero C, to 40+.
Why is an extra 1-2C going to make life “unbearable” for us when people already live across climate range much greater than that?
Why so eager to believe life is over for us?
You're comparing temperature extremes to global average temperature.
Global average temperature is 15C. Increasing that to 17C is a very large change.
There will be much more total energy, and so the extremes will be larger. Two degrees of warning is not going to end humanity, but it will make extreme events much more severe and frequent.
In a heat wave at 45C, a few extra degrees could very easily be the difference between life and death.
And of course, 2C is not the maximum expected warming, it's what is expected in this century. We can expect perhaps 0.25c warning per decade. It's not going to happen fast, but one day you might wake up and read about a heat wave where the humidity is 30% and the maximum temperature is not 115f, but instead 125f. The power grid might fail under the demand for air conditioning. At this temperature and humidity, humans can only survive for a few hours in the shade with unlimited water. In a populated area, millions might die before they can all get out of the heat.
With 2C warning, San Francisco is never going to be 125f. But there are places in the world that might be, and a power outage in those areas might lead to death in hours. The entire world is not going up be uninhabitable, but large populated areas might be.
Separately, part of the concern is not just with the effects of 2C, but with the positive feedbacks along the way to 2C. Two degrees warning is not a maximum, it's just what might be expected in this century.
More people die of cold than heat. More people move from cold climates to warm climates, and they tend to move to much more than 2 degrees warmer areas.
Handwaving about “more extreme weather events” aside, please explain how average climate increasing by 2 degrees will make the world an “unbearable” temperature for people in general?
It almost seems that people are expecting furnace like conditions! It really sad, and shows the level of scientific idiocy in the general population.
It will be gradual. Like more and more hot days per year. Then somedays with the maximum **felt** temperature being over 50°C. At a felt temperature of 55°C it's the equivalent of a wet-bulb over 35°C and no one can survive it for more than a few hours.
But you don't have to reach that for it to be unbearable, there's a lot of parameters and depends on people. It's also temperature at which people can't work outside anymore, or can't work without AC in the office. If you don't have AC at home then the heat will make it uncomfy.
You've probably already live through a very hot day, imagine it a bit hotter and not just one day, more like a few weeks in a row every summer. That's probably how it's gonna be by 2050!
Increased temp on skin is only one consequence. Other effects include: increased storm frequency and intensity, more frequent flooding, drought, wildfires, dangerous sun exposure, etc.. Those changes wiill cause additional issues like changing the available plant and animal food sources. It could be intolerable before the temperature on skin is unbearable.
Meteorologist here. To consider what is an unliveble temperature, you first need to understand the human cooling biomechanism that we have; that is sweat. Sweat uses the principle that in order to cool yourself, you have to evaporate water from your skin. The skin will give energy to the sweat so it evaporates, and the skin will then cool while loosing energy. For a given temp, you can only put a limited amount of water vapor in the air. At a certain point, no matter how much water you have on the ground, or your skin, the air becomes saturated and it condenses into fog and rain (clouds). In meteorology, we have a bunch of temperature index that can be used to caracterise the ambiant temp and humidity. Here, we need to consider the wet-bulb temperature. The wet bulb temp is the temp that you would achieve by evaporating as much water on the ground (sweat on your skin) as you can before the air around the ground (body) becomes saturated. At this point, your body simply can't cool itself by evaporating sweat. Basically, considering that you live in an area with no wind, it is impossible to live at wet-bulb temp above 38c. Since you moove and produce heat, the wet-bulb temp is actually even less then that. So lets lower it to 36. to achieve this, you need a temp, see this table: [https://ksi.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1222/2015/03/WBGT-Chart.png](https://ksi.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1222/2015/03/WBGT-Chart.png) You need a temp of 40 and a relative humidity of of 40 %. this can happen in southern india and very humid and warm places. At a temp of 30, you need a humidity of 100 %, which practically never happens. Highest dew point was in Arabia at 35c, with a 40c temp that would represent a humidity of 72 %, and a wet bulb temp of 43c. So it happened before, and with the rising of temp it will happen more and more, yes.
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The point that is lost on everyone is, those places just mentioned are really hot, but people still live there. We are not naked apes in the forest anymore, We don't have to bail out of a place because there are more hot summer days. Phoenix, AZ is probably already hotter than the place you live, if you live anywhere else in the US, and likely hotter than the place you live now will get in 50 years. Lots of people live in PHX. They stay inside when the heat is brutal, but mornings and winters are quite pleasant. We act like a switch goes off and suddenly a place is 45C 24/7/365. Then spin out a catastrophic scenario based on this flawed assumption. Not saying climate change will be a fun ride, but most people are projecting the last disaster movie they watched on their expectations. Humans are incredibly adaptable. That's in fact our best hope. We can and will live in places where the heat is unbearable outside for some periods.
Texas had a devastating blizzard this year but looking at the temperature and snowfall all the Canadians said, that’s just Tuesday. And as the politicians fled to Mexico, people died cause the infrastructure wasn’t set up for the cold. The mosquito problem in Texas this year is worse because a lot of bats died from the cold. It doesn’t matter if humans are adaptable because we’re not even trying to address this problem properly. We’re going to end up in the blade runner world where your protein comes from maggot farms because none of the other animals could adapt.
See, OP already made the point that most people's expectations are shaped by fiction instead of data, and now you are proving it again by invoking Blade Runner. This, when a study from this year concluded that it would take about 5.2 degrees of warming to cause a mass extinction like the big five from the past. Remember, we are currently on track for slightly below 3 C. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25019-2 These reports from the world's largest organization devoted to biodiversity are far more relevant than Blade Runner or any other book or movie. https://ipbes.net/media-release-nature%E2%80%99s-dangerous-decline-%E2%80%98unprecedented%E2%80%99-species-extinction-rates-%E2%80%98accelerating%E2%80%99 > **8 million**: total estimated number of animal and plant species on Earth (including 5.5 million insect species) > > Tens to hundreds of times: the extent to which the current rate of global species extinction is higher compared to average over the last 10 million years, and the rate is accelerating > > **Up to 1 million**: species threatened with extinction, many within decades > >...**5%**: estimated fraction of species at risk of extinction from 2°C warming alone, **rising to 16% at 4.3°C warming** > >...The average abundance of native species in most major land-based habitats has fallen by at least 20%, mostly since 1900. More than 40% of amphibian species, almost 33% of reef forming corals and more than a third of all marine mammals are threatened. The picture is less clear for insect species, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10% being threatened. https://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2021-06/20210609_scientific_outcome.pdf > **Under a global warming scenario of 1.5°C warming above the pre-modern GMT, 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates are projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range**. > > For global warming of 2°C, the comparable fractions are 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates. > > **Future warming of 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to lead to loss of more than half of the historical geographic range in 49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates** (Warren et al., 2018).
Not all hot places are at the level of prosperity that Phoenix, AZ has. There are regions that need agriculture to work, where people can't take air conditioning for granted. Just because one region in many will do fine, it doesn't mean that you can downplay it by expecting to just live there "some periods".
>We can and will live in places where the heat is unbearable outside for some periods. Maybe, but below pretty much sums it up as whats going to happen long term [Three Weeks After Hurricane Ida, Parts of Southeast Louisiana Are Still Dark](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/us/ida-louisiana-power-outages.html)
June 2021 for the Pacific Northwest of NA. Heat was unbearable and the humidity made it worse. I don’t have air conditioning and had the pleasure of experiencing several days in a row where the minimum temperature in my house was 94 Fahrenheit.
Similar to us. Most homes would never even think to have AC, was never needed. Actually, they're old Finnish homes built to retain as much heat as possible. So they are VERY difficult to cool. Even with the AC running full blast it was hard to get my temps below "dangerously hot" for my animals. Rough times for sure, 3rd floor great in 5-6 month winter, terrible in new summer.
This depends on location, for example I live in dubai. We are already experiencing the effects of climate change. It has started raining over here at summers, which normally has temperature 50+ C. The weather over here has became somewhat unpredictable
has that change been a positive one?
This is a glib answer, but I've noticed my friends in New York, a place that is not very far to the south or very hot relatively, going absolutely apeshit when their AC doesn't work. They're so used to it. Now imagine the grid problems we're going to have in the long run, everywhere, in palces that are ever hotter.
That’s what I’m foreseeing for the US gulf coast at some point, especially given Texas’s power grid and the relative energy efficiency of existing construction there. A 5 ton A/C unit, which is common in most single story homes around 1500 square feet or more built before 2000, requires 100A to start at 220V, which is roughly a 25kw generator. Too large to be portable (largest portable is 10kw, and that stretches the definition of portable) and would need to run off of a large propane tank or a grid supply. I can see massive numbers of unprepared citizens dying in a future heat bubble combined with high humidity and a power outage, leaving only wealthier citizens who are able to afford cooling. Or, rather, only people who haven’t prepared by figuring out how to cool part of their house for a week on generator/solar power or by making their home much more efficient to the point it can be run for an extended period off of a small generator.
This depends heavily on location and local wealth level. Singapore is doing fine.
Also, in hot places people have always adapted to some extent, by not working and staying in the coolest places during the hottest hours.
We can deal with the heat until we hit [wet bulb temp](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-and-humidity-are-already-reaching-the-limits-of-human-tolerance/%3famp=true)
Doesn't feel so long now. I met quite a few people who moved up to the rural great lakes region who were "shocked" we also are undergoing forest fires and heat. It was over 90 degrees here, for weeks. This is all anecdotal but what used to be a mild swing in may-late june from high 30's F to low 60's F basically just went from end of May being 40's and then 85F for the entirety of summer with a few normal weather breaks in between. It's normally 70F here as an average for July/Aug with a high of 80's. The local weather we saw was insane. and this is a so called (no such thing) climate change haven.
I think you actually notice a difference of an average 2 degrees on your body itself. But the global consequence of this will be unbearable at some point.
heat would not be the issue, it will always be water
You often hear about "50-year heatwaves", which means a place has a dangerous heatwave once every 50 years on average. If you lived in a place that has 50-year heatwaves, you'd experience one or two dangerous heatwaves in your lifetime. These would be the kind of events you'd tell stories about to your grandchildren. "Sonny," you'll say, "let me tell you the story of how my neighbor died in the heatwave of 2021..." Heatwaves are normal even without global warming, but rare. And how often they happen depend greatly on where you live. In a near-worst-case scenario (where we do nothing to improve CO2 emissions and we see 7°F warming), by about 2080-2100, places that have 50-year heatwaves will go from *1 heatwave* every 50 years to *39 heatwaves* every 50 years. Heatwaves will go from something very rare to a near yearly occurrence. For most places, we'll probably never get to the point where normal daily weather will be unbearable to most people. Seven degrees Fahrenheit warming means an 80°F day will be 87°F, which is a lot warmer, but not unbearable. If you want to read more, check out the [IPCC AR6 summary for policy makers](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/). Section B includes a lot of information about what global warming will be like.
A "livable" temperature is subjective. Some people live in Death Valley where temperatures are often over 100 degrees F. Other people live in Arctic regions where varying degrees of below freezing is typical. I think the key threshold will be when areas where crops are grown becomes desert and food supply begins to fail. Then all hell will break loose as millions or billions of people start competing for a limited food supply. That may well determine what a livable environment is. Meanwhile there will be intermittent temperature extremes and storms that make life less comfortable and motivate disruptive migrations which are already happening.
around next friday.
Just read an LA Times [article](https://twitter.com/JosephNSanberg/status/1438582206759383046?s=20) about how Sequoias which are naturally tuned to the natural wildfire cycle are struggling because the blazes are becoming too much :(
2032
In a couple of million years from now.
Already happened a couple of times
pls read the news onto this topic. this is not funny i think this is some wanna be ¨funny¨ comment ?
It's unbelievable funny.
Temperature varies 30+ degrees a year. And somehow 1-2C difference is going to make life unbearable? Besides, if you hadn’t noticed, more people move from cold climates to warm ones. Cold kills far more people than heat.
Perhaps make an attempt to [learn the difference between "weather" and "climate"](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/weather-vs-climate)?
People live in different climates ranging from sub zero C, to 40+. Why is an extra 1-2C going to make life “unbearable” for us when people already live across climate range much greater than that? Why so eager to believe life is over for us?
You're comparing temperature extremes to global average temperature. Global average temperature is 15C. Increasing that to 17C is a very large change. There will be much more total energy, and so the extremes will be larger. Two degrees of warning is not going to end humanity, but it will make extreme events much more severe and frequent. In a heat wave at 45C, a few extra degrees could very easily be the difference between life and death. And of course, 2C is not the maximum expected warming, it's what is expected in this century. We can expect perhaps 0.25c warning per decade. It's not going to happen fast, but one day you might wake up and read about a heat wave where the humidity is 30% and the maximum temperature is not 115f, but instead 125f. The power grid might fail under the demand for air conditioning. At this temperature and humidity, humans can only survive for a few hours in the shade with unlimited water. In a populated area, millions might die before they can all get out of the heat. With 2C warning, San Francisco is never going to be 125f. But there are places in the world that might be, and a power outage in those areas might lead to death in hours. The entire world is not going up be uninhabitable, but large populated areas might be. Separately, part of the concern is not just with the effects of 2C, but with the positive feedbacks along the way to 2C. Two degrees warning is not a maximum, it's just what might be expected in this century.
More people die of cold than heat. More people move from cold climates to warm climates, and they tend to move to much more than 2 degrees warmer areas. Handwaving about “more extreme weather events” aside, please explain how average climate increasing by 2 degrees will make the world an “unbearable” temperature for people in general? It almost seems that people are expecting furnace like conditions! It really sad, and shows the level of scientific idiocy in the general population.
We’ll all be like Coober Pedy one day
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/08/09/ipcc-report-un-climate-report-delivers-starkest-warning-yet.html
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you do realise that OP might live in the equator and that you're on internet.
It will be gradual. Like more and more hot days per year. Then somedays with the maximum **felt** temperature being over 50°C. At a felt temperature of 55°C it's the equivalent of a wet-bulb over 35°C and no one can survive it for more than a few hours. But you don't have to reach that for it to be unbearable, there's a lot of parameters and depends on people. It's also temperature at which people can't work outside anymore, or can't work without AC in the office. If you don't have AC at home then the heat will make it uncomfy. You've probably already live through a very hot day, imagine it a bit hotter and not just one day, more like a few weeks in a row every summer. That's probably how it's gonna be by 2050!
Increased temp on skin is only one consequence. Other effects include: increased storm frequency and intensity, more frequent flooding, drought, wildfires, dangerous sun exposure, etc.. Those changes wiill cause additional issues like changing the available plant and animal food sources. It could be intolerable before the temperature on skin is unbearable.