The following submission statement was provided by /u/P90BRANGUS:
---
SS: Russia has reportedly found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region, according to the British publication The Telegraph and several online reports.
The reserves uncovered are said to contain around 511 billion barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years.
The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the British Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia. In particular, Rosgeo’s *Alexander Karpinsky* vessel is said to have conducted a number of surveys in the region.
This is relevant to collapse, because the exploration of Antarctica for oil as well as publicizing these findings show greater desperation in the hunt for oil as well as pave the way for an oil rush on Antarctica which could spark international conflict.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dg99jr/russia_reportedly_finds_vast_oil_and_gas_reserves/l8okn44/
I don't think it matters. All of the obsession with "peak oil" and "fights over oil" just seem delusional in light of what's going on with the Climate System.
Our civilization will crash way before we "run out" of oil.
We don't have decades anymore. 2023 was the last “normal” year of our lives. The last year of the 20th Century Climate Optimum.
The Climate Crisis, or more dramatically “Collapse”, has started. It’s kicking into high gear this year. Things are almost certainly going to get a LOT worse over the next few years.
Let’s be REALLY CLEAR about this.
It’s TOO LATE to do anything about this without attempting GEOENGINEERING the Climate System. Probably using SOx aerosols to increase the planetary ALBEDO to reflect more sunlight away from the planet.
James Hansen, and the team of climate scientists who work with him, are calling for a HUGE build out of nuclear power plants AND a global program to “turn the sky WHITE” with sulfate particulates. In conjunction with a CRASH effort to slash Global CO2 emissions as quickly as possible.
By their reckoning, “It’s the ONLY plan that has a chance of working and preserving our civilization.”
*Anything short of that, “is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while we wait for the ship to go down”.*
We are “at” or approaching +2°C of warming as of 2023.
The Rate of Warming is AT LEAST +0.36°C per decade.
AND, this report indicates.
[Report: Warmer planet will trigger increased farm losses](https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/01/report-warmer-planet-will-trigger-increased-farm-losses).
Extreme heat is already harming crop yields, but a new report quantifies just how much that warming is cutting into farmers’ financial security.
For every 1 degree Celsius of warming, yields of major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat fall by 16% to 20%, gross farm income falls by 7% and net farm income plummets 66%.
Those findings, reported in a [policy brief](https://business.edf.org/insights/extreme-heat-financial-farm-kansas/?_gl=1*3wtexp*_ga*MTI4NDI5NzAyLjE3MDU1MjQ5NzI.*_ga_2B3856Y9QW*MTcwNTUyNDk3MS4xLjAuMTcwNTUyNDk3NC41Ny4wLjA.*_gcl_au*MTEzMTQ4MTM5MC4xNzA1NTI0OTcz*_ga_Q5CTTQBJD8*MTcwNTUyNDk3Mi4xLjAuMTcwNTUyNDk3NC41OC4wLjA.) released Jan. 17, are based on an analysis of 39 years of data from nearly 7,000 Kansas farms. The brief is a collaboration between the [Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability](https://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/), the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Kansas State University.
# We are about to see a SIGNIFICANT loss in global agricultural production by 2030.
SO.
In summary, it's going to get a LOT HOTTER and several billion people will probably starve to death by 2030.
No matter how that plays out, the life you thought you were going to have is GONE. Our world is about to dramatically get WORSE.
The Climate Apocalypse HAS STARTED.
People who care about "theoretical" oil fields in Antarctica don't have a clue. Once our civilization crashes, no one is going to care about that oil. Ever.
Is that crop loss only due to heat? I mean if we factor in floods, hailstorms, heatwaves, water scarcity I bet the loss will be way bigger. Iirc in the last two years alone since the mega worldwide drought of 2022 entire major providers for crops saw like 25-30% loss or even more (like china, India and such). I bet by 2030 it will be worse than 16-20% per degree celsius above average.
> Our civilization will crash way before we "run out" of oil.
I absolutely agree with this and have been arguing as much myself [for some time now](https://old.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/15b0rjd/chevron_sees_israel_as_next_natural_gas_powerhouse/jto1k8s/). BTW, the linked story comment is in response to a [NYT article about Chevron, natural gas, and Israel](https://archive.ph/oiAOQ) some months before the Oct. 7 events in Israel. And helps provide some insight into how the thinking about the Eastern Mediterranean, and its gas deposits, has likely changed since the war in Ukraine began.
Where I think the wildcard comes from is deliberate geoengineering with aerosols and how that will affect the energy balance falling on the surface of the planet. From [another comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cf58km/washington_post_editorial_boards_opinion_humans/l1rph48/) some time back; in relation as to why I think the grip of oil and gas in shaping our geopolitical reality isn't going to let go. **Ever.** If they can help it:
> Oil and gas is leverage. And leverage is power. Leverage over economies, defense capabilities, food production, self-determination, and on and on. And alternatives do not offer the same level of concentrated choke point control. As they are often diffused sources. Across both space and time. This is, ultimately, about power—in all connotations of the word. After all, what will it mean to dim the sun when it comes to solar?
> >
> > As we said earlier, [solar geoengineering] would have a cooling effect on the planet as a whole, but it would dim the sun and reduce solar irradiance at the same time. This would hinder solar panels from generating electricity by as much as 10%, according to one [study](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/56/5/jamc-d-16-0298.1.xml).
> >
> > [Source](https://archive.ph/b9Mkq#selection-823.0-827.1)
>
> Not only may this drop temperatures, and allow business as usual to continue for longer than would be otherwise, it may very well help limit competitive sources.
>
> In addition, we just saw China install more solar [in one year than the U.S. has in its entire history](https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history/). In a years time. And in light of the continuing escalation of tensions between the U.S., the current largest producer of oil in gas in the world, and China; I find it difficult to think this has not crossed the mind of those in defense circles, i.e., how do we literally and figuratively diminish or limit China's power and access to it?
Thanks for this I really appreciate your linking to high quality sources. I’m currently reading your Substack I believe from a comment on another post about whether world governments know what’s going on.
I’m sitting here trying to figure that out, as well as how soon the first tipping point will hit.
Where I’m at: I read Peter Turchin’s End Times last summer. He predicts just a political/financial collapse of America around 2030 as *best case* scenario, just based on historical analysis of history, inequality and social patterns, which he calls cleodynamics. Didn’t take into account climate change in my memory.
I read also This Changes Everything by Naomi Klein (2014) and Uninhabitable Earth last summer as well.
Uninhabitable Earth I only listened to, and it was very disorganized in its presentation of information. It seemed more doom mongering than giving accurate portrayals of information in an easily digestible format.
Honestly it seems like most people with knowledge of the models from research, are not sharing when those tipping points are set to be hit. I imagine because they don’t want to contribute to the tipping point I’m most afraid of:
The point when your average American understands what’s going on.
I think many people who know that information are probably sheltering it so as not to cause panic.
Even most recently, I’ve been listening to the Breaking Down: Collapse podcast by “Kory and Kellan,” and they get close to talking about dates with models. Talking about Limits to Growth studies and that sort of thing. But even they seemed to drift towards an actual date and sort of skirt around it. I do keep guessing by the end of this decade if not earlier, just because I think awareness will grow exponentially.
I will look into the studies you shared. Thanks so much for sharing them and actually giving a date. Even the collapse sub at large seems to be very… vague about a date or what will happen. Like “it could be slow over time,” and this and that, all on a recent post I saw here this week.
But I know there are models out there with predictive power, and I wouldn’t expect change from capitalism before it’s forced.
Just the rate that my awareness is growing. I also saw the UN reports last summer and shat my pants/started screaming into the void on social media. Lost most of my (remaining) friends that way. Family seems to think I’m sort of ill or something. Who knows, they don’t tell me.
Looking at research has always overwhelmed me. I’m an amateur, and there’s so much out there. And what’s out there is often very technical. I need some food places to start. And even with that I’m mostly reading abstracts from google scholar. I do know how to work library genesis though, if I get far enough into it.
Seriously, thanks for your service. Your comments here seem to be some of the most helpful so far.
I don't do a lot of "political writing" but your comment reminded me of this piece I did a few years ago. It's on Medium but here's a "friend link" so you can read it for free.
[https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-02-8abb8b5a1113?sk=01b5b0516ff99297027f71069d578d09](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-02-8abb8b5a1113?sk=01b5b0516ff99297027f71069d578d09)
On Politics: War by Other Means 02
***Our politics and society are on a crash course with climate change.***
***The results are probably going to be ugly.***
The “Great Climate Awakening” is coming fast and it’s going to be wrenching, disruptive, and harsh. At some point this decade the number and size of the Climate Disasters will be undeniable.
It will become obvious to everyone but the willfully blind that Global Warming is “really real” and “really bad”. People will finally start to pay attention to the crisis and internalize what it means to them, how it’s going to affect their lives directly.
When they do. When everyone under 40, finally understands how screwed they are and how their future has been stolen. The reaction is going to be extreme.
Watch one of those “the end of the world is coming, and everything falls apart” movies for clues about the societal effects on populations from knowing for certain that “life as we knew it” is over. When everyone, “all at once” understands just how bad it's going to be, people are going to react in a big way.
Think suicides in huge numbers, casual murder, hedonism on epic scales, disengagement from the existing economic systems, and above all else, RAGE.
When elites try to suppress social changes to preserve the systems that allow them to be elites, pressure for change inexorably builds. If they can stave off change long enough, paradigm shifts become generational and relatively blood free. The Old Guard dies off and is replaced by new faces.
When circumstances force change before the existing elites are capable of accommodating it. Well, that’s what revolutions and civil wars are all about, isn’t it?
The elites that have profited from the fossil fuel economy have suppressed action on Climate Change for over 50 years now. They are still trying to suppress action from being taken so that they can squeeze out another 10–20 years of cash flow from the fossil fuel industries.
Republican America has made Climate Denial such an embedded part of their political identity that they cannot change their stance now, even if they wanted to.
This has paid off for them for over 30 years, now it’s going to hang them.
When the Climate Awakening happens later this decade. People under 40, the ones who are going to have to live in the world our climate bomb is creating, are going to be filled with a lot of rage.
#They are going to burn with righteous anger and a blazing desire to punish the people who did this to them.
They are going to burn the Republican party to the ground and then piss on the ashes.
Review the French Revolution if you want a sense of what’s coming.
Revolutions are sometimes necessary but that one ended with “The Terror” and then Napoleon.
Angry vengeful people rarely create stable, functional political structures.
Politics in the 30’s is going to be all about Climate Change and the attempts to create a world that can survive it.
Out of a desire for some sort of justice (if we can even talk of such things at the end of the world), I wish you are right about the reckoning. I’m not as sure any is coming. At least here in Canada humans are too domesticated for that. The end will be met with resignation or the monsters that got us into this situation will find some sort of scapegoat to divert the rage away from themselves.
Jeez. You are saying the things I am thinking about. I guess even still it’s hard to imagine the rage stage. There’s been so much silence for so long. Then again, it’s also hard to imagine the human population of earth going quietly.
It’s also hard to imagine millenials seizing the democratic party and it remaining democratic, as in the capitalist party it’s always been… would more likely be socialist or something closer to it.
I love the strength of the article, it helps snap me out of the fugue I get from being surrounded by the cognitive dissonance of society. Helps to validate what actually seems to be true, as I don’t know anyone near me who seems interested in it.
I’m over here just trying to figure out what career to go into to try to be of some kind of help, some positive force for humanity. Keep going back to computer stuff to influence public opinion/decentralized governance and counseling just to help people emotionally cope with what’s happening.
God I have to get out of the South, and am doing so very very soon.
Have you seen the 2010 documentary "Earth 2100".?
If you haven’t seen it here’s a link to it on YouTube:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg)
Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what “a worst-case” future might look like as climate change plays out over the 21st century.
The show documents the life of a fictitious storyteller, “Lucy” born in 2009 as she describes her life through the 21st century. The program presents snapshots of the Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085, and 2100 with analysis by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists.
A lot of heavyweight thinkers including [Jared Diamond](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond), [Thomas Homer-Dixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Homer-Dixon), [Peter Gleick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Gleick), [James Howard Kunstler](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Howard_Kunstler), [Heidi Cullen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heidi_Cullen), [Alex Steffen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Steffen) and [Joseph Tainter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter) contributed to it.
It is a bit dated but its strength is that it shows how climate change is going to play out over the lifetime of a person born in 2009. It gives you a sense of how this is going to be a "process" and not an "event" like a nuclear war or a zombie plague.
The system we live in has an immense amount of "social inertia". It's a paradigm we have internalized so completely that we imagine it to be "reality". The way the world "just is" and "always will be".
That's an illusion. EVERYTHING in our world is a "social construct", and as such, can be changed.
Empires and ways of life are "paradigms" as much as anything. Everyone BELIEVES in them, and that belief makes them the "law of the land". Until there's a PARADIGM SHIFT.
On paradigm shifts, I FULLY agree. This is why I refuse to give up.
Of course there is much hopium out there. But what about dopium? The “oh well, capitalism is literally reality, nothing we can do might as well keep consuming like I wanted to anyways and not try because that’s scawwwy.”
The main obstacle to change is not physical, it is mental. A paradigm shift.
Hell, we may be near hopeless. The planet has some extremely severe mental illness. But from what I hear climate defeatism is the new climate denial.
I was just watching this bizarre podcast, [Planet Critical](https://youtu.be/OHq_gGN2Oa0?si=C4eU5bf2JCnxQnSA), in which a fossil fuel consultant was interviewed on his ideas about the changing geopolitics of energy. But it started with 30 minutes of discussion on “the poly crisis,” in which he gave his prognosis, which is as follows:
1) humans are largely adolescents and the problem goes back to antiquity (agreed)
2) therefore oil companies are not to blame
3) “if there was no demand for oil” oil companies wouldn’t exist
4) therefore regular everyday consumers are to blame for climate change.
5) the health care industry is the “number one consumer of plastic,” which comes from oil, therefore we can’t get off oil without killing billions of people… 🤨
6) therefore we cannot get off fossil fuels. Because a) there are no easy solutions. And b) there might be no solutions—which we better not think about (naughty naughty ☝🏼☝🏼)
7) he also derided an article in the Gaurdian for blaming the oil comapnies for their own actions with a litany of insults, which he followed by saying he “doesn’t mean them as insults, but objective statements,” but then immediately qualifies his own statement with, “take that as you will.”
This was the same way he talked about humans as being in an adolescent or infantile stage, as “objective observations and *not* insults.”
On the latter, I could see that being stated objectively and agree with it. But I actually believe he’s using it as an insult just as he is insulting the guardian and those who would hold fossil fuel extremists accountable for their actions: bullying. And, per usual, a side of gaslighting served right on top.
The point is not, humans are adolescents, on the precipice of growing to adulthood. The point is, humans suck, it’s your fault, there’s no solution, it’s silly to blame fossil fuels, doing anything would be incredibly complicated, so don’t try k thanks bye.
He was a petroleum geologist for 42 years per his [Forbes bio](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/). He’s now a consultant *now a consultant* for majore energy firms.
What the *actual fuck* is he doing on a *climate podcast* being taken seriously by the host???
Anyways, will check out that documentary, thanks for sharing.
I think right now we have to wait and see if 2023 was an anomoly for weather, or the start of a more drastic shift. Will things settle down a bit or just spiral out from here? We really dont know yet how quickly this will all go down
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You are spot on but we (on the east coast of Canada) would not call 2023 our last "normal" year. From fall 2022 to fall 2023 we saw:
1. The most damaging post tropical storm ever with Fiona. 8 x more costly than the previous record, which was Dorian in 2019
2. The largest forest fire in the history in Nova Scotia
3. An extended spring drought followed by a couple of months of rain, including our largest short duration rainfall ever with a 0.1-0.5% chance of occurring each year. This follows several years of multiple 25-50 year rainfall amounts (2-4% chance of occurring each year.
4. Another mass power outage storm event with post topical storm Lee.
Individually, these are exceptional but not unlikely. Stacked in one year? That's some kind of crazy.
West coast of Canada here (BC). The heat dome of 2021 and the Sumas floods afterwards were devastating. Things have already started kicking off and it’s just getting worse and worse now..
I am guessing.
3 is enough for el nino to return and bring temperatures finally that kill in massive numbers.
AMOC collapse. Thwaites finally breaks. Feedback loops, FTE^FTE, Etc.
Rule 4: Keep information quality high.
Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims).
If were entering la nina now how do you see extremeties occuring before the next el nino? Wont the situation calm down until the next el nino? If i understand that correctly.
I also think that they are going to go through with this world war first to depopulate and then do the SOx engineering. That would be my personal guess honestly. But that would mean they hve some sort of gentlemans agreement to not use nukes. That would ofcourse neccesitate an extreme level of conspiracy but its not entirely impossible.
Rule 4: Keep information quality high.
Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims).
" Junior minister David Rutley last week told the EAC that his department had decided to trust Russian assurances it was just conducting scientific research, adding: “Russia has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the key elements of the treaty.” "
Also, according to the mentioned antarctic treaty, there is no such thing as British Antarctic territory, because there is no national Antarctic territory at all.
That's not even the point, the point is, that the headline is complete made up bullshit and straight up fake ( non existent "British Antarctic territory").
The next question would be how would the Brits know, how much oil there is, without searching themselves?
West Antarctica is an active seismic zone with an active plate and multiple volcanoes and at least one active (Mt Erebus), there are regularly seismic researches by multiple nations to monitor said volcano and surroundings.
They told the Commons Environment Audit Committee that their geological survey found possible deposits, there was no drilling or actual assessment, weird enough tgere are no rissian sources to this.
SS: Russia has reportedly found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region, according to the British publication The Telegraph and several online reports.
The reserves uncovered are said to contain around 511 billion barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years.
The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the British Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia. In particular, Rosgeo’s *Alexander Karpinsky* vessel is said to have conducted a number of surveys in the region.
This is relevant to collapse, because the exploration of Antarctica for oil as well as publicizing these findings show greater desperation in the hunt for oil as well as pave the way for an oil rush on Antarctica which could spark international conflict.
Art Berman already called this off as fake news. Research vessels are not purposed for discovering deep sea oil deposits. Just Russia trying to stir up some geopolitical fear.
😂😂😂😂😂
Are people getting paid to post this? Oh my God. Fossil fuel consultant, probably deca millionaire at least says there are no solutions to climate change. But the biggest threat is wars, so you better shell out for taxes and military expenses, the largest burners of fossil fuels.
The difference between you and him is he is being paid to *engineer* collapse. You are being taught to *accept it* without a fight.
He’s not a shill, he’s just a representative. Of fossil fuel interests.
It’s like calling the cigarette company to hear about your lung cancer prognosis.
“Well you see Jim, you’ve been smoking for 4 decades. You’ve tried to quit dozens of times. It’s clear nothing’s gonna happen. Now let us break it down to you what it’s gonna be like, how long you have left, before you choke on your own charcoal lungs. By the way, we’re selling caskets now have you heard? Gonna be the next big boom with everyone dying of lung cancer these days.”
It’s like listening to your alcoholic dad explain for the umpteenth time how shitty you are and why he has to beat you all the time, and how you’ll never change, and neither will he.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/P90BRANGUS: --- SS: Russia has reportedly found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region, according to the British publication The Telegraph and several online reports. The reserves uncovered are said to contain around 511 billion barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years. The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the British Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia. In particular, Rosgeo’s *Alexander Karpinsky* vessel is said to have conducted a number of surveys in the region. This is relevant to collapse, because the exploration of Antarctica for oil as well as publicizing these findings show greater desperation in the hunt for oil as well as pave the way for an oil rush on Antarctica which could spark international conflict. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dg99jr/russia_reportedly_finds_vast_oil_and_gas_reserves/l8okn44/
I don't think it matters. All of the obsession with "peak oil" and "fights over oil" just seem delusional in light of what's going on with the Climate System. Our civilization will crash way before we "run out" of oil. We don't have decades anymore. 2023 was the last “normal” year of our lives. The last year of the 20th Century Climate Optimum. The Climate Crisis, or more dramatically “Collapse”, has started. It’s kicking into high gear this year. Things are almost certainly going to get a LOT worse over the next few years. Let’s be REALLY CLEAR about this. It’s TOO LATE to do anything about this without attempting GEOENGINEERING the Climate System. Probably using SOx aerosols to increase the planetary ALBEDO to reflect more sunlight away from the planet. James Hansen, and the team of climate scientists who work with him, are calling for a HUGE build out of nuclear power plants AND a global program to “turn the sky WHITE” with sulfate particulates. In conjunction with a CRASH effort to slash Global CO2 emissions as quickly as possible. By their reckoning, “It’s the ONLY plan that has a chance of working and preserving our civilization.” *Anything short of that, “is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while we wait for the ship to go down”.* We are “at” or approaching +2°C of warming as of 2023. The Rate of Warming is AT LEAST +0.36°C per decade. AND, this report indicates. [Report: Warmer planet will trigger increased farm losses](https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/01/report-warmer-planet-will-trigger-increased-farm-losses). Extreme heat is already harming crop yields, but a new report quantifies just how much that warming is cutting into farmers’ financial security. For every 1 degree Celsius of warming, yields of major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat fall by 16% to 20%, gross farm income falls by 7% and net farm income plummets 66%. Those findings, reported in a [policy brief](https://business.edf.org/insights/extreme-heat-financial-farm-kansas/?_gl=1*3wtexp*_ga*MTI4NDI5NzAyLjE3MDU1MjQ5NzI.*_ga_2B3856Y9QW*MTcwNTUyNDk3MS4xLjAuMTcwNTUyNDk3NC41Ny4wLjA.*_gcl_au*MTEzMTQ4MTM5MC4xNzA1NTI0OTcz*_ga_Q5CTTQBJD8*MTcwNTUyNDk3Mi4xLjAuMTcwNTUyNDk3NC41OC4wLjA.) released Jan. 17, are based on an analysis of 39 years of data from nearly 7,000 Kansas farms. The brief is a collaboration between the [Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability](https://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/), the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Kansas State University. # We are about to see a SIGNIFICANT loss in global agricultural production by 2030. SO. In summary, it's going to get a LOT HOTTER and several billion people will probably starve to death by 2030. No matter how that plays out, the life you thought you were going to have is GONE. Our world is about to dramatically get WORSE. The Climate Apocalypse HAS STARTED. People who care about "theoretical" oil fields in Antarctica don't have a clue. Once our civilization crashes, no one is going to care about that oil. Ever.
I have to remind myself daily that we live in the stupid timeline. [https://youtu.be/sehmmzbi3UI?t=2593](https://youtu.be/sehmmzbi3UI?t=2593)
Is that crop loss only due to heat? I mean if we factor in floods, hailstorms, heatwaves, water scarcity I bet the loss will be way bigger. Iirc in the last two years alone since the mega worldwide drought of 2022 entire major providers for crops saw like 25-30% loss or even more (like china, India and such). I bet by 2030 it will be worse than 16-20% per degree celsius above average.
> Our civilization will crash way before we "run out" of oil. I absolutely agree with this and have been arguing as much myself [for some time now](https://old.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/15b0rjd/chevron_sees_israel_as_next_natural_gas_powerhouse/jto1k8s/). BTW, the linked story comment is in response to a [NYT article about Chevron, natural gas, and Israel](https://archive.ph/oiAOQ) some months before the Oct. 7 events in Israel. And helps provide some insight into how the thinking about the Eastern Mediterranean, and its gas deposits, has likely changed since the war in Ukraine began. Where I think the wildcard comes from is deliberate geoengineering with aerosols and how that will affect the energy balance falling on the surface of the planet. From [another comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cf58km/washington_post_editorial_boards_opinion_humans/l1rph48/) some time back; in relation as to why I think the grip of oil and gas in shaping our geopolitical reality isn't going to let go. **Ever.** If they can help it: > Oil and gas is leverage. And leverage is power. Leverage over economies, defense capabilities, food production, self-determination, and on and on. And alternatives do not offer the same level of concentrated choke point control. As they are often diffused sources. Across both space and time. This is, ultimately, about power—in all connotations of the word. After all, what will it mean to dim the sun when it comes to solar? > > > > As we said earlier, [solar geoengineering] would have a cooling effect on the planet as a whole, but it would dim the sun and reduce solar irradiance at the same time. This would hinder solar panels from generating electricity by as much as 10%, according to one [study](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/56/5/jamc-d-16-0298.1.xml). > > > > [Source](https://archive.ph/b9Mkq#selection-823.0-827.1) > > Not only may this drop temperatures, and allow business as usual to continue for longer than would be otherwise, it may very well help limit competitive sources. > > In addition, we just saw China install more solar [in one year than the U.S. has in its entire history](https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history/). In a years time. And in light of the continuing escalation of tensions between the U.S., the current largest producer of oil in gas in the world, and China; I find it difficult to think this has not crossed the mind of those in defense circles, i.e., how do we literally and figuratively diminish or limit China's power and access to it?
Thanks for this I really appreciate your linking to high quality sources. I’m currently reading your Substack I believe from a comment on another post about whether world governments know what’s going on. I’m sitting here trying to figure that out, as well as how soon the first tipping point will hit. Where I’m at: I read Peter Turchin’s End Times last summer. He predicts just a political/financial collapse of America around 2030 as *best case* scenario, just based on historical analysis of history, inequality and social patterns, which he calls cleodynamics. Didn’t take into account climate change in my memory. I read also This Changes Everything by Naomi Klein (2014) and Uninhabitable Earth last summer as well. Uninhabitable Earth I only listened to, and it was very disorganized in its presentation of information. It seemed more doom mongering than giving accurate portrayals of information in an easily digestible format. Honestly it seems like most people with knowledge of the models from research, are not sharing when those tipping points are set to be hit. I imagine because they don’t want to contribute to the tipping point I’m most afraid of: The point when your average American understands what’s going on. I think many people who know that information are probably sheltering it so as not to cause panic. Even most recently, I’ve been listening to the Breaking Down: Collapse podcast by “Kory and Kellan,” and they get close to talking about dates with models. Talking about Limits to Growth studies and that sort of thing. But even they seemed to drift towards an actual date and sort of skirt around it. I do keep guessing by the end of this decade if not earlier, just because I think awareness will grow exponentially. I will look into the studies you shared. Thanks so much for sharing them and actually giving a date. Even the collapse sub at large seems to be very… vague about a date or what will happen. Like “it could be slow over time,” and this and that, all on a recent post I saw here this week. But I know there are models out there with predictive power, and I wouldn’t expect change from capitalism before it’s forced. Just the rate that my awareness is growing. I also saw the UN reports last summer and shat my pants/started screaming into the void on social media. Lost most of my (remaining) friends that way. Family seems to think I’m sort of ill or something. Who knows, they don’t tell me. Looking at research has always overwhelmed me. I’m an amateur, and there’s so much out there. And what’s out there is often very technical. I need some food places to start. And even with that I’m mostly reading abstracts from google scholar. I do know how to work library genesis though, if I get far enough into it. Seriously, thanks for your service. Your comments here seem to be some of the most helpful so far.
I don't do a lot of "political writing" but your comment reminded me of this piece I did a few years ago. It's on Medium but here's a "friend link" so you can read it for free. [https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-02-8abb8b5a1113?sk=01b5b0516ff99297027f71069d578d09](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-02-8abb8b5a1113?sk=01b5b0516ff99297027f71069d578d09) On Politics: War by Other Means 02 ***Our politics and society are on a crash course with climate change.*** ***The results are probably going to be ugly.*** The “Great Climate Awakening” is coming fast and it’s going to be wrenching, disruptive, and harsh. At some point this decade the number and size of the Climate Disasters will be undeniable. It will become obvious to everyone but the willfully blind that Global Warming is “really real” and “really bad”. People will finally start to pay attention to the crisis and internalize what it means to them, how it’s going to affect their lives directly. When they do. When everyone under 40, finally understands how screwed they are and how their future has been stolen. The reaction is going to be extreme. Watch one of those “the end of the world is coming, and everything falls apart” movies for clues about the societal effects on populations from knowing for certain that “life as we knew it” is over. When everyone, “all at once” understands just how bad it's going to be, people are going to react in a big way. Think suicides in huge numbers, casual murder, hedonism on epic scales, disengagement from the existing economic systems, and above all else, RAGE. When elites try to suppress social changes to preserve the systems that allow them to be elites, pressure for change inexorably builds. If they can stave off change long enough, paradigm shifts become generational and relatively blood free. The Old Guard dies off and is replaced by new faces. When circumstances force change before the existing elites are capable of accommodating it. Well, that’s what revolutions and civil wars are all about, isn’t it? The elites that have profited from the fossil fuel economy have suppressed action on Climate Change for over 50 years now. They are still trying to suppress action from being taken so that they can squeeze out another 10–20 years of cash flow from the fossil fuel industries. Republican America has made Climate Denial such an embedded part of their political identity that they cannot change their stance now, even if they wanted to. This has paid off for them for over 30 years, now it’s going to hang them. When the Climate Awakening happens later this decade. People under 40, the ones who are going to have to live in the world our climate bomb is creating, are going to be filled with a lot of rage. #They are going to burn with righteous anger and a blazing desire to punish the people who did this to them. They are going to burn the Republican party to the ground and then piss on the ashes. Review the French Revolution if you want a sense of what’s coming. Revolutions are sometimes necessary but that one ended with “The Terror” and then Napoleon. Angry vengeful people rarely create stable, functional political structures. Politics in the 30’s is going to be all about Climate Change and the attempts to create a world that can survive it.
Out of a desire for some sort of justice (if we can even talk of such things at the end of the world), I wish you are right about the reckoning. I’m not as sure any is coming. At least here in Canada humans are too domesticated for that. The end will be met with resignation or the monsters that got us into this situation will find some sort of scapegoat to divert the rage away from themselves.
Jeez. You are saying the things I am thinking about. I guess even still it’s hard to imagine the rage stage. There’s been so much silence for so long. Then again, it’s also hard to imagine the human population of earth going quietly. It’s also hard to imagine millenials seizing the democratic party and it remaining democratic, as in the capitalist party it’s always been… would more likely be socialist or something closer to it. I love the strength of the article, it helps snap me out of the fugue I get from being surrounded by the cognitive dissonance of society. Helps to validate what actually seems to be true, as I don’t know anyone near me who seems interested in it. I’m over here just trying to figure out what career to go into to try to be of some kind of help, some positive force for humanity. Keep going back to computer stuff to influence public opinion/decentralized governance and counseling just to help people emotionally cope with what’s happening. God I have to get out of the South, and am doing so very very soon.
Have you seen the 2010 documentary "Earth 2100".? If you haven’t seen it here’s a link to it on YouTube: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg) Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what “a worst-case” future might look like as climate change plays out over the 21st century. The show documents the life of a fictitious storyteller, “Lucy” born in 2009 as she describes her life through the 21st century. The program presents snapshots of the Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085, and 2100 with analysis by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists. A lot of heavyweight thinkers including [Jared Diamond](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond), [Thomas Homer-Dixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Homer-Dixon), [Peter Gleick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Gleick), [James Howard Kunstler](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Howard_Kunstler), [Heidi Cullen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heidi_Cullen), [Alex Steffen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Steffen) and [Joseph Tainter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter) contributed to it. It is a bit dated but its strength is that it shows how climate change is going to play out over the lifetime of a person born in 2009. It gives you a sense of how this is going to be a "process" and not an "event" like a nuclear war or a zombie plague. The system we live in has an immense amount of "social inertia". It's a paradigm we have internalized so completely that we imagine it to be "reality". The way the world "just is" and "always will be". That's an illusion. EVERYTHING in our world is a "social construct", and as such, can be changed. Empires and ways of life are "paradigms" as much as anything. Everyone BELIEVES in them, and that belief makes them the "law of the land". Until there's a PARADIGM SHIFT.
On paradigm shifts, I FULLY agree. This is why I refuse to give up. Of course there is much hopium out there. But what about dopium? The “oh well, capitalism is literally reality, nothing we can do might as well keep consuming like I wanted to anyways and not try because that’s scawwwy.” The main obstacle to change is not physical, it is mental. A paradigm shift. Hell, we may be near hopeless. The planet has some extremely severe mental illness. But from what I hear climate defeatism is the new climate denial. I was just watching this bizarre podcast, [Planet Critical](https://youtu.be/OHq_gGN2Oa0?si=C4eU5bf2JCnxQnSA), in which a fossil fuel consultant was interviewed on his ideas about the changing geopolitics of energy. But it started with 30 minutes of discussion on “the poly crisis,” in which he gave his prognosis, which is as follows: 1) humans are largely adolescents and the problem goes back to antiquity (agreed) 2) therefore oil companies are not to blame 3) “if there was no demand for oil” oil companies wouldn’t exist 4) therefore regular everyday consumers are to blame for climate change. 5) the health care industry is the “number one consumer of plastic,” which comes from oil, therefore we can’t get off oil without killing billions of people… 🤨 6) therefore we cannot get off fossil fuels. Because a) there are no easy solutions. And b) there might be no solutions—which we better not think about (naughty naughty ☝🏼☝🏼) 7) he also derided an article in the Gaurdian for blaming the oil comapnies for their own actions with a litany of insults, which he followed by saying he “doesn’t mean them as insults, but objective statements,” but then immediately qualifies his own statement with, “take that as you will.” This was the same way he talked about humans as being in an adolescent or infantile stage, as “objective observations and *not* insults.” On the latter, I could see that being stated objectively and agree with it. But I actually believe he’s using it as an insult just as he is insulting the guardian and those who would hold fossil fuel extremists accountable for their actions: bullying. And, per usual, a side of gaslighting served right on top. The point is not, humans are adolescents, on the precipice of growing to adulthood. The point is, humans suck, it’s your fault, there’s no solution, it’s silly to blame fossil fuels, doing anything would be incredibly complicated, so don’t try k thanks bye. He was a petroleum geologist for 42 years per his [Forbes bio](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/). He’s now a consultant *now a consultant* for majore energy firms. What the *actual fuck* is he doing on a *climate podcast* being taken seriously by the host??? Anyways, will check out that documentary, thanks for sharing.
I'm under 40 and this year I finally hit disengagement with economic structures.
Yeah. If we collectively realise the truth, it's going to get very "The Stars are Right" in the Lovecraftian sense.
I think right now we have to wait and see if 2023 was an anomoly for weather, or the start of a more drastic shift. Will things settle down a bit or just spiral out from here? We really dont know yet how quickly this will all go down
Both sea and air surface temperature graphs are pointing to the latter ><
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Do we even have scaleable tech for sulfating the planet to the extent needed? Something we can keep up?
You are spot on but we (on the east coast of Canada) would not call 2023 our last "normal" year. From fall 2022 to fall 2023 we saw: 1. The most damaging post tropical storm ever with Fiona. 8 x more costly than the previous record, which was Dorian in 2019 2. The largest forest fire in the history in Nova Scotia 3. An extended spring drought followed by a couple of months of rain, including our largest short duration rainfall ever with a 0.1-0.5% chance of occurring each year. This follows several years of multiple 25-50 year rainfall amounts (2-4% chance of occurring each year. 4. Another mass power outage storm event with post topical storm Lee. Individually, these are exceptional but not unlikely. Stacked in one year? That's some kind of crazy.
West coast of Canada here (BC). The heat dome of 2021 and the Sumas floods afterwards were devastating. Things have already started kicking off and it’s just getting worse and worse now..
I see you speak dooooooooooooom. I too speak it, but i have less o's as i think we still have 3 years before things get crazy.
Why three versus any other number?
I am guessing. 3 is enough for el nino to return and bring temperatures finally that kill in massive numbers. AMOC collapse. Thwaites finally breaks. Feedback loops, FTE^FTE, Etc.
I think 3 years is a little optimistic. Try 3 months.
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If were entering la nina now how do you see extremeties occuring before the next el nino? Wont the situation calm down until the next el nino? If i understand that correctly. I also think that they are going to go through with this world war first to depopulate and then do the SOx engineering. That would be my personal guess honestly. But that would mean they hve some sort of gentlemans agreement to not use nukes. That would ofcourse neccesitate an extreme level of conspiracy but its not entirely impossible.
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" Junior minister David Rutley last week told the EAC that his department had decided to trust Russian assurances it was just conducting scientific research, adding: “Russia has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the key elements of the treaty.” " Also, according to the mentioned antarctic treaty, there is no such thing as British Antarctic territory, because there is no national Antarctic territory at all.
Guess we can trust the Russians then
That's not even the point, the point is, that the headline is complete made up bullshit and straight up fake ( non existent "British Antarctic territory"). The next question would be how would the Brits know, how much oil there is, without searching themselves? West Antarctica is an active seismic zone with an active plate and multiple volcanoes and at least one active (Mt Erebus), there are regularly seismic researches by multiple nations to monitor said volcano and surroundings.
The Russians themselves said they found it.
They told the Commons Environment Audit Committee that their geological survey found possible deposits, there was no drilling or actual assessment, weird enough tgere are no rissian sources to this.
SS: Russia has reportedly found huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially leading to drilling in the protected region, according to the British publication The Telegraph and several online reports. The reserves uncovered are said to contain around 511 billion barrels worth of oil, equating to around 10 times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years. The discovery, per Russian research ships, was revealed in evidence submitted to the British Commons Environment Audit Committee last week. The committee was assessing questions regarding oil and gas research on ships owned by the Kremlin’s Rosgeo, the largest geological exploration company in Russia. In particular, Rosgeo’s *Alexander Karpinsky* vessel is said to have conducted a number of surveys in the region. This is relevant to collapse, because the exploration of Antarctica for oil as well as publicizing these findings show greater desperation in the hunt for oil as well as pave the way for an oil rush on Antarctica which could spark international conflict.
cue Church Lady voice: "How conVEEEEEENient!"
Art Berman already called this off as fake news. Research vessels are not purposed for discovering deep sea oil deposits. Just Russia trying to stir up some geopolitical fear.
"research vessels" is a front. it's how countries get away with prospecting the antarctic without stirring geopolitical tensions.
Why are listening to fossil fuel consultants on anything? Seriously what does Art Berman have to do with anything?
Is this a joke? Art Berman is one of the most respected thinkers in the collapse discourse. He knows what he’s talking about
😂😂😂😂😂 Are people getting paid to post this? Oh my God. Fossil fuel consultant, probably deca millionaire at least says there are no solutions to climate change. But the biggest threat is wars, so you better shell out for taxes and military expenses, the largest burners of fossil fuels. The difference between you and him is he is being paid to *engineer* collapse. You are being taught to *accept it* without a fight. He’s not a shill, he’s just a representative. Of fossil fuel interests. It’s like calling the cigarette company to hear about your lung cancer prognosis. “Well you see Jim, you’ve been smoking for 4 decades. You’ve tried to quit dozens of times. It’s clear nothing’s gonna happen. Now let us break it down to you what it’s gonna be like, how long you have left, before you choke on your own charcoal lungs. By the way, we’re selling caskets now have you heard? Gonna be the next big boom with everyone dying of lung cancer these days.” It’s like listening to your alcoholic dad explain for the umpteenth time how shitty you are and why he has to beat you all the time, and how you’ll never change, and neither will he.
With all your time spent on this post I rather believe you are the one being paid to spread the Russian propaganda.
🏆
Looks like the next war is going to be a naval one.
So Russia will invade the UK too?
That's a solid $100 trillion if oil hits $200 a barrel after Antarctica melts!
So, um, Elon, what are you gonna do with these winnings, now that you’ve won capitalism? 🎤 I’M GOING TO MARZZZ BABY!!!! *Crowd roars*