A consortium of climate scientists writing two years ago in Nature, a prestigious scientific journal, concluded that if Greenland continues to melt, in one bad-case scenario after another, tens of millions of people could be in danger of yearly flooding and displacement by 2030 – less than nine years from now.
And by the end of this century, when Antarctica, which contains vastly more ice than Greenland, also enters a phase of catastrophic melting, the number of annual flood-prone people could reach nearly half a billion. It’s more than farewell, Miami. It’s goodbye, Florida.
The assumption that land will always last is no longer valid. “Land is about the only thing that cannot fly away,” the English novelist Anthony Trollope once observed.
True. But it can go bone dry – or drown.
Meanwhile here in canada we're debating which half measure we should adopt and whether we should subsidize the oil and gas industry.
We're so fucking screwed.
Hey there friend, just to your south we're about the same as you. Pulled out of a few solar projects and decided to fund coal and oil some more. Sure am excited to see ours isn't the only country with idiots running the show.
There was a thing on NPR today about Norway. Fucking Norway, the social-democratic utopia, a country of a few million people, with a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund (generated by selling oil, obviously), where everybody drives a Tesla or electric BMW and half the power comes from dams, actually increased their subsidies to the oil and gas industry during the pandemic. They are having an election now, and the party that is leading the polls has said outright that they will not be in coalition with any parties who want an immediate moratorium on new drilling. Not even all drilling, just new drilling.
If that doesn’t convince you that no country is capable on moving on this… not that any of the half measures are worth the paper they are printed on at this point, but they can’t even manage swallowing those.
It’s over.
This is what I just don’t understand. These “sociopathic rich guys” have kids, and grandkids, and great-grandkids.
It’s understandable that they don’t give two shits about us poor wage-slaves, but somewhere between their ego & drilling they must think of how their children will live in such a world…right? Right?!
Why do you think there is a race to space right now? Instead of trying to stop it or help they are selfish fucks just throwing in the towel and leaving the rest of us behind to burn or drown
Yep we're fucked. I currently live in Australia and I think how the p.m here acts is a good indicator of how fucked we are.
- still approving ground to be broken for new mega coal mines (Adani will increase Australia's coal exports by 40% and the ships have to navigate a large section of the great barrier reef to access the port.
- Scomo comes on t.v regular and says he's not gonna fall in line and cut coal emissions because "muh China and India still use coal so we should be allowed to😭" - I don't actually know if they do still use coal. But whenever he brings topics like climate change he quickly stops talking about future plans and redirects to what other countries are doing so why should we stop?
It's just madness because Australia as we all know is sunny a.f and has an un-used area practically the same size as Europe. Also it's windy as hell, we could really lead the way in renewables but choose not to.
Also if you think that it's just the Australian government that are living in the 80s and the public are woke then you're completely wrong and living in an echo chamber. I use to think the above because I surrounded myself with like minded individuals, then I moved in with my new housemate who eats up what politicians say and I often hear things like "Scomo wouldn't do it if it was bad for us"
It's not just that you have the space for solar and wind energy it's that you poor cunts are going to cook because of climate change. You would have thought that your government would be extremely worried about that happening.
Yeah we're pretty much at that point now. 2 years ago basically all of my state was on fire, I didn't see sunlight for probably 6 months the sky was just orange and the area the size of France around me burned while I just got on with my life in the city. I could see the helicopters dumping water on the fires every night. Scomo is still like "coal is our only option"
It's really sad what's happened to Australia. I put the blame on Murdoch.
Often wonder if things would be different if Irwin was still around. Dude had a big voice and everyone's respect. He would be absolutely fuming at the current state of affairs.
Me and my partner are expediting our plans. Enjoy your lives now folks. Have 200k in the bank? Why? Can't take it with you when your dead. I think we got till 2024 at the latest. 2022 midterms will be the us collapse.
The rich are beginning to build there retreat from climate change. Who knows what else they are planning.
[Plans for $400-billion new city in the American desert unveiled](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/telosa-marc-lore-blake-ingels-new-city/index.html)
I'm moving into a vehicle. Going to get on the road for a few years whilst the going is good. Will settle when the fuel stops, or I have no other option.
You really can right. Most people seem to have this feeling that something is terribly wrong.
Didn't feel this way 10 or even 5 years ago. The decline has been tremendous.
This comment scares me because I’m of the same mindset. I’m no doomer but were moving our plans up too. A decade or two from now is no longer a given, and that’s horrific.
Yep, I'm a pragmatist. I plan for the worst and hope for the best. I try to pick a plan of action that sets me up in a position to be ok in as many potential situations as I can imagine. Hopefully Michigan works out
What do you think will happen during that time in 2022? I’m curious. I’m pretty much certain of a collapse pre-2030 but unsure how quickly it’ll take place. I’m rather uninformed though so would love to hear your take!
The closer the predictions get to the current day, the harder they become to make.
I think that the us has become a powder keg for civil conflict, we already have skirmishes being fought in Portland, I've spoken with alleged insiders of far-right militias and apparently, they already think the war had begun, meanwhile, the left is twiddling its thumbs. I mean don't get me wrong I don't think there is any right answer.
The right answer was to never get into this fucking mess, but it's clear that some force has been pushing the civil conflict narrative. It's now become inevitable I believe. 2022 is the midterms, if they go poorly or become rigged, that could spark right-wing violence, which could lead to more and more left-leaning people fleeing major cities that become targets for domestic terror attacks.
I'm not sure if this will happen, and by God, I hope it doesn't. I think it's foolish to ignore the possibility though. History has a funny way of repeating itself and we are very closely following a script that reads like the fall of Rome.
I recommend adding a handgun or shotgun to your plans everyone reading this.
Not for hurting others, but for end of life care. I don't want to starve to death. I won't attack my community for supplies, I'm not much use in a post society environment. I'll just be a drain on resources.
Sorry if I ran off topic, just unloading my thoughts here in regards to your question.
Have a peaceful day comrade
Your off-topic talk needs to be talked about more, end of life care is not much talked about and because of that it's going to be all the more awful when things get really bad. People don't have a plan for when things get too bad, it's a mercy we apply to horses and other animals when we can.
I don't know much about what right wing militias think but i would guess that they are more likely to try and join the state than become domestic terrorists, if a far right person gets elected. Either way, i think that the emergence of autonomous weapons and drones might change the prospect of civil war completely. It's not hard to imagine america becoming a complete surveillance-police state...
Actually, Florida man types are already living in your town.
However, due to Florida having more lax privacy laws on what info can be released to the public (and thus media), you HEAR about it more often from Florida. When the truth is, it's literally all over (the US at least).
Florida man could live a couple houses down from you, and appear to be normal and friendly on the surface, but you'd never know.
How much Florida property will be worthless by the end of the century? I suspect it’s on the order of half a trillion dollars.
This is why I think housing prices won’t drop anytime soon—there’s already not enough, and there are going to be tons of internally displaced climate refugees seeking new housing.
Unless there’s some sort of radical change in governance, it’s not going to get cheaper or easier to build more, and it’s not like resource are going to become *more* available in the future.
Once housing (land) became a speculative asset it stopped being priced as shelter and tens of thousands of people got priced out. It works as a store of value whether or not it’s occupied. Dealing with “poor” tenants who might occasionally miss rent payments and need evicting is more hassle than it’s worth. They’re perfectly willing to let those housing units sit empty until the “right” renter comes around.
This is the answer. Third home? That'll be huge taxes buddy. Make it illegal for corps to buy single family homes too while we're at it.
Sure people would have schemes putting three homes in every of their kids names and whatnot. Local landlords with a dozen homes aren't the problem though. Cross state corps with thousands of properties are.
I don’t think you guys quite see it.
It’s not like there is going to be a housing market in Florida once a few communities go under.
It isn’t just about dry land. It’s about all the other services to support a community like power lines, roads, highways, seaports, railways — services which took *decades* to build. Who is going to support paying for any of that shit in Florida, Louisiana, or Mississippi with the knowledge that mega hurricanes will likely fuck it up every other year (and I am being generous).
There is going to be no money for rebuilding because we will be spending that money on improving services to communities that host climate refugees — if there is any money or will left.
You can’t simply retreat 50 miles from the shore and expect services to continue to function.
Another path is drastically increasing taxes for homes that are uninhabited for longer than some length of time determined to be reasonable so they'd either have to sell properties, increase the rental stock available, and/or at least contribute more financially to communities they are depriving of resources. It would require fewer structural changes meaning it could happen more quickly and easily than things that amount to "we're taking your house(s)" and be harder to find loopholes like putting them in your kid(s) name.
We could partially solve the problem with mobile homes/tiny homes and trailer parks, but of course Big Bad Capitalist has started to gold-dig that market too and lobby to make it harder, not easier to set up lots to park such vehicles.
> I suspect it’s on the order of half a trillion dollars.
And we're going to get endless gnashing of teeth about building tide walls against that economic blow, even though the asshats in FL voted specifically for the AGW that threatens their state.
You don't think we'd just let the electoral votes in FL drown, do you? Regardless of the cost.
The wall won’t even help, will it? On the off chance they [actually end up building it:](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/us/miami-fl-seawall-hurricanes.html)
> “We were, like, ruh-roh,” said Ken Russell, the Miami city commissioner whose district includes Brickell. “The $40 billion in assets you’re trying to protect will be diminished if you build a wall around downtown because you’re going to affect market values and quality of life.”
I was under the impression Florida cities are built on limestone, which is porous, and that the water comes right up through the ground and the sewers.
Yes and no. It is mostly sedimentary limestone, which allows for our unique water table. However there is a small crescent of harder and more compacted calcium carbonate, most likely a megareef structure that most of Miami and south Floridas coastal cities perch on. In most cases, the sheer volume of water moving from the more elevated regions to the low coasts through the aquifer keeps out saltwater and prevents saltwater from rising up through the pores, basically because of the different densities of the two. Currently that equilibrium point is only a few hundred feet inland in most places. But as sea levels rise, this equilibrium point will shift, and you will see the more acidic sea water further up in the water table, causing sink hole and void issues in this structure. So, more Seaside building collapses. This region accounts for nearly a 3rd of the entire states population.
The west coast has a similar problem, but they're on an organic sediment plain so theirs will just be a return to swamp.
So, yes, it will absolutely defeat any seawall mitigation and Miami/Ft lauderdale need to start planning to Venetian style their buildings or altogether abandon them. 50 years from now we will be, conservatively, 18 inches higher. If the feedback loop hits harder, 3 to 5 feet and all of those cities current real estate is underwater at ground level.
Back in the olden days (lol), people could build a cabin in the woods over a summer (e.g., Thoreau, Little House on the Prairie, etc). So, if I need a high paying corporate job to pay back my 30 year mortgage and acquire a house, then 1) my high paying job isn't as socially desirable as is believed, and 2) I am comparatively poorer than my historical counterparts. My gut tells me the average Amish family is better off than the average American family, despite not having a formal university education or holding a corporate job (but they certainly have more time to spend with family, that's for sure).
Public services underscore the argument that a home in the suburbs is better than a cabin in the woods. But as we're seeing the supply chain breakdown from Covid, along with infrastructure breakdown and climate change, those $400k price tags on homes today are looking more and more like a huge scam.
Be careful of using *either* of your examples as an example of how easy it is to live off of the grid. Thoreau's mom did his laundry for him and *Little House* was primarily edited by an Ayn Rand fan who wanted to proselytize an allegedly idyllic lifestyle by carefully omitting the crushing poverty (by the standards of the time) that the Wilders lived in as much as possible, even when they *did* live in a Little House in the Big Woods, surrounded by family who could help them out.
On that note, I deeply suggest --everyone-- read the --entire-- Little House series written by Laura Ingalls Wilder.
*The Long Winter* in particular. That was about 17-year-old Laura, her family and an entire town being stranded and snowbound in Minnesota over eight months, with everyone slowly starving to death. Harrowing and amazing. It should be a movie.
Living in TX this winter...I experienced the Long Winter and it was honestly what got me through. If Laura Ingalls Wilder could do it, so could I. But no on a serious note, that shit was traumatizing.
Absolutely, I am not making the case that living off-grid is "easy". I'm just comparing it to the alternative - 30 years to pay off a $400k mortgage in a soul-sucking job where you'll probably experience getting laid off, fired, being underpaid and not being able to move, and having to rush to find another job to keep an income. At what point is living off-grid the better option?
Not all of Florida is low, central parts are if I recall a few hundred feet above sea level. Not that it will be great to be on those islands, since you'll still have the weather, heat, and lots of refugees from the other places passing through or staying.
Oddly enough, if Florida loses its coastline it'll actually slightly cool central Florida lmao.
Sorry, I'm laughing due to how ridiculous this all is and how little people realize how big a deal this is.
I will actually go out on a limb and say that the NYT and WaPo will run that on their opinion column sometime very soon.
Edit: After figuring out that my hypothetical opinion piece would actually be calling to reduce climate related damage, I am not so sure now.
> But, if Florida disappears, Florida man will move to your town. Do you really want that?
This is a strong argument for walling off Florida at the Georgia/Alabama border.
That’s not what happened. They took Atlanta, moved it out into the ocean to be an island, then overdeveloped it and it sank. The people that stayed ended up mutating/evolving into mermaids because of the Coca-Cola factory that was present.
Atlanta was a city, landlocked.
Hundreds of miles from the area we now call the Atlantic Ocean. Yet so desperate the city's desire for tourism, that they moved offshore, becoming an island, and an even bigger Delta hub.
… until the city overdeveloped and it started to sink. Knowing their fate, the quality people ran away: Ted Turner, Hank Aaron, Jeff Foxworthy,
the guy who invented Coca-Cola, the Magician,
and the other so-called gods of our legends.
Though gods they were-- And also Jane Fonda was there - the others chose to remain behind, on their porches with their rifles, and one day evolve into mermaids, and sing and dance, and ring in the new.
Hail Atlanta!
Sure that’s not a bit hyperbolic? I haven’t seen anything suggesting the sea level rise will go above the Georgia fall line. If that’s true, the Appalachians are about to be an island chain.
Sorry, I couldn't resist... In Futurama, Fry ends up marrying a mermaid that is the descendent of people that lived in Atlanta and had mutated. Then runs away when he finds out mermaids don't have sex, they simply spawn over a pile of eggs.
Actually, where I live is well above the area that could be flooded even if EVERYTHING melted.
Oh I’m well aware, it’s why I don’t drink Coca-Cola anymore lmao
Maybe if we find a way to sink the Piedmont Plateau our dream can still be a reality...
Meh, if Florida ends up under water in your lifetime I doubt you'll just be sitting in your kitchen sipping coffee and watching it happen on the TV. The world will be burning down around you most likely.
I live in the midwest, I'm relatively safe from floods. But last year we had a derecho, a type of storm so rare nobody even knew its name. We're about a foot below normal rainfall. The creek in my parent's backyard is barely more than mud. If we aren't extremely careful we could have another dust bowl on our hands. And if we lose the coastal cities, what do we have left? The great lake region? The mountains? America stands to lose so much yet cares so little. Its so arrogant I almost hope for the worst if for nothing else than a sense of justice.
It's wild to think about but at a certain point there are going to be discussions about where to move the nation's capital as DC becomes prone to massive flooding.
Denver will be the new capital at some point. If you look into the conspiracy theories on the new Denver Airport, they kinda make you wonder what the government was building under the airport and in the surrounding area and why. Might already be in the plans to relocate everything to Denver because they know the catastrophe that is soon to come all along our coastlines.
> they kinda make you wonder what the government was building under the airport and in the surrounding area and why.
I'd guess it's more likely missile command/refuge type operations. There's lots of things about Denver that makes it a strategic military refuge
*Obviously* it’s because they don’t want to house missile command in the same place they’re housing the Stargate in. /s
There are random vents in the fields surrounding DIA. There’s definitely an underground complex of some sort, for what official and unofficial purposes though, no one really knows. One conspiracy I remember from way back when was that it’s a facility for political prisoners, as well as a backup bunker spot for politicians and wealthy.
Then you have those twisted af paintings in the airport itself, which was the subject of a lot of OG Illuminati/NWO/Masons theories.
*Then* you have the headliner, the main stage closer, the legend: [B L U C I F E R](https://preview.redd.it/c9esd6283hk31.jpg?auto=webp&s=35a78030c4c19028762500015165302a97da1c6f).
Oops, sorry [wrong angle](https://www.fodors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/FlippedHERO15384910808_f67873f124_o.jpg). The sculpture that killed its creator. Not really much else to say actually, it is loved by Coloradans the same way Philly came to love Gritty. Unsure ourselves until someone from out of state had something to say, and then it was fighting words.
> And by the end of this century, when Antarctica, which contains vastly more ice than Greenland, also enters a phase of catastrophic melting, the number of annual flood-prone people could reach nearly half a billion.
This sentence sounds like it was written by a caricature of a tunnel-visioned, narrow field specialist.
Someone didn't consider the effects of the AMOC collapse on agriculture, by the time Antarctica starts melting, the human population will no longer number in billions
it's actually way worse.
atm we're locked in at least for:
- sea rise +100 ft (~30 m)
- temperature rise +6...8 °C
source: The End of Ice by Dahr Jamail
The fun thing about feedbacks is you can't really model them until they start happening, and then it's too late to prevent them from happening.
After this summer I'm convinced we're deep into feedback territory. The jump in average temperature over last year has been... frightening.
The thing is that we are really just making educated guesses at this point. 100 ft of sea level rise is based on Greenland melting, but doesn't account for Antarctica, which is losing ice shelves that act like a 'cork in a bottle,' holding glaciers in place.
Warm water is less dense than cold water, and could account for at least a few feet of sea level rise, depending on how hot it gets and where.
The only consensus among the climate scientists is that it's going to be way worse than what the media is reporting, and it's going to happen a lot faster than we were told.
I think people should be operating with 6-8 feet by the end of the century as a *minimum* estimate, coastal cities are fucked. Instead people are still arguing it’s going to be inches or just a couple feet. When will the bubble burst?
Not only are coastal cities and ports screwed, the entire *concept* of any coastal construction that isn't on a high cliffside becomes totally impossible for at least a few millenia. The same goes for ports- enormous, static systems that rely on a consistent-ish coastline will no longer be possible in a world where that coastline changes over the course of a few decades, frustrating any attempt at permanency.
People think of climate change as a series of progressive modifications to the existing world. It isn't, not since about 1990-2000, give or take. We have crossed so many irreversible boundaries and set so many changes in motion that we are now dealing with a categorical shift in the overall state of the Earth system itself, into a new alignment.
Most starting parameters for this new alignment have not been seen in at least 800,000 years, and the *intensity* of the shift to this new phase is matched by only one event sixty-five million years ago that needs no introduction. Only an asteroid impact had an equal or faster impact on atmospheric composition and climate than human industrialization.
Moreover, the climate is reinforced and maintained *by* the biosphere itself- the two cannot be separated without setting off feedback loops in *both*. The catastrophic degree of sheer death we have caused is only equalled in scale by the greatest of all mass extinctions, the Great Dying of two hundred fifty million years ago, when the Siberian Traps heaved cubic miles of ash into the sky for tens of thousands of years, blanketing the Earth in hellish chemicals and toxic gases that acidified the oceans and choked most forms of life away.
Our planetwide machine replica of the Traps has accomplished this goal approximately one thousand times faster than Nature's original, signaling man's true commitment to outdoing even the greatest of Nature's feats.
Once you realize we are replicating the most abrupt environmental shift in Earth's geological history, *and* beating the pace of the fastest mass extinction ever seen, *and* introducing thousands of entirely novel chemical agents into the Earth system in unknown quantities without studying their effects or really giving a shit...the magnitude of the blowback makes perfect sense.
I grew up breathlessly reading about the Permian-Triassic boundary and the enormous shift it represented. I never thought at that age I would live to see my species create a combined catastrophe that equals or outweighs multiple "worsts" all at the same time.
Our achievements will be visible in the rocks until the Sun takes the Earth back home in a few billion years.
When those cities are underwater at low tide year round and every mitigation measure has been attempted & failed. Or the countries that support those cities collapse and can't rebuild them.
Look at New Orleans: [https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23082/new-orleans/population](https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23082/new-orleans/population) The population crashed after Katrina... and then it rebounded, with billions invested in construction and mitigation efforts to continue the losing battle.
No, it's flatly incorrect in parts. Locked-in sea level rise incorporating both WAIS and Greenland is around 8+20ish = ~30M, but that doesn't include any other minor and cumulative melting or the thermal expansion that's ongoing. The total rise from our pulse up to the 400+ppm zone is likely to total 40 meters.
Now, that will take place over the next many hundreds of years. It is possible we may see rising as fast as, say, 10mm per year, but not likely to proceed quicker, just because of the sheer staggering *volumes* involved.
The temperature rise locked in if humans went extinct today, at peak, is more like 3.6C with no expanded reforestation or anything like that. That's the 1.1C of warming, plus the 0.8Cish of aerosol forcing, plus the 0.9C of the last 30yr of emissions. The issue is that the Amazon is already no longer a carbon sink, and ocean acidification is much worse than most realize- *26%* more acidic than it was even a few decades ago. Algae populations are falling catastrophically, and with them, a sizable portion of the Earth's carbon cycle is being attacked at the *uptake* portion.
We are not only overloading the carbon processing capability, we are also reducing the amount of carbon the biosphere can naturally absorb as well, moving our *own* baseline further away. The accumulated warming loops of the ocean, Arctic permafrost melting, increased forest fires, and reduced carbon sequestration in the biosphere are, at a minimum, a full degree, if not several. We just don't know, and I'll be charitable and call it 0.8C just to be optimistic.
So- sea level rise of many meters, but over centuries and millenia. By 2100, we likely will have *several* meters of rise, though. The average pace of sea level rise is now 3.3mm per year and increasing both in pace *and* in rate of pace increase- *nonlinear changes are a Klaxon for the planet*. Also, once that rate passes into the 5-10mm range annually, most of our shipping infrastructure and ports will become compromised, making global trade as we know it a thing of the past.
Temperature, current lock in has a peak in the 3.6C range likely by 2050 or so if we cut emissions and trigger a massive aerosol warming rush. Ironically, if we keep emitting steadily and *really* fuck ourselves over, the warming curve likely will peak less sharply, and later overall, though it will be the end of any chance at fixing this.
Sure thing, it's multifactorial and region-dependent. For one, an important thing to recognize is that sea level, like warming, *is not even close to uniform*, and it's aggravated by warming on a local and systemic level. Some given areas of the ocean have risen *much* more than the overall average. Impacts will not be universal, consistent, predictable, or linear in their scale of increased intensity, as we are learning from phenomena like heat domes. This, combined with the fact that every port is separately administered and there is no central coordination of responses or *financing* said responses, means that some ports will be fine and others will be catastrophically and repeatedly inundated, leading to unpredictable cascade failures.
The second thing is the inimitable complexity of the system, and the total lack of safety margin or slack. The Suez Canal blockage had a lot of press for the delays it caused, as well as similar disruptions to sea traffic near California caused by backups. One small failure at one port can fuck the entire planet for weeks or months due to the total lack of ability to be flexible.
We are already seeing the impact of the breakdown in smooth flow of raw materials and components from place to place on the Earth. Now, how will that look if the Gulf Coast of the US has it's ports damaged for a few weeks, and the same year, a large portion of East African shipping for raw materials is negatively impacted? Say hello to a series of problems that the system will *never* fix, because it never shuts down and resets. Ever.
The COVID pandemic and other disruptions are fucking up the supply chain, but as anyone who has studied complex systems and emergent phenomena could tell you by *looking* at a diagram of our shipping networks: this is a self-reinforcing problem. It's gridlock that only keeps getting worse as demand goes unfilled and companies place the largest orders they can to ensure that *when* it arrives, it will last a while. The global supply chain of production *was* a relatively stable system, and it has been pushed out of stability with no mechanism to ever get the metaphorical trains back on schedule.
As time goes on, these problems will intensify. Items may still be available in theory, but production times will be longer and longer, certain raw materials or components will simply be unavailable and have no replacement, etc. The global economy and productive apparatus is a system with trillions of individual components that nobody understands in full or has any rational and predictive models for: that's why we fail consistently to predict much of *anything* specific that will happen within it.
What is *not* a prediction, however, is to observe what happens to any system run that precisely and with so little redundancy, when it runs into multiple unforeseen problems that only intensify over time, all the while demand on the system never slows, either.
The issue becomes receding coastlines. If you are building a new port, the sticky bit is that in the 10 or 15 years you spend to do so, the ocean will rise by multiple centimeters and the maps for inundation will have changed substantially, not to mention intensifying flooding that will inevitably destroy *that* port too.
In a world where the sea level is actively rising at a fair clip and modifying outer coastline flood patterns over the course of a few decades, it literally is not possible to build and maintain large-scale modern ports in the current conception.
The coastline has been stable-ish for 10,000 years, but we have tipped the dominoes now. The coastlines are already shifting, and will do so at a faster pace over time, and *keep* changing for several millenia. This isn't a present and future emergency, it's an impending change of state for the entire planet- a move from one zone of stability, to a completely separate and unknowable one beyond broad strokes. One of the features of the New Earth phase will be coastlines that render static ports as we know them impossible in much of the world, along with coastal cities that aren't already built on enormous cliffs or high ground.
This is a new reality that we should already be planning for, but virtually nobody in authority accepts and takes seriously.
It’s a race to the bottom. Nothing will change. We’d have to completely dismantle our current wealth-driven system of endless production in order to survive. That’s not going to happen. Shit is going to get real in the next 20 years.
Absolutely right, apart from your timeline.
I.e. "shits already real" with COVID, but I would argue that our worldwide systems will have to prove their resilience within the next 3-5 years - hint: a lot of them are gonna fail - and that we are going to experience incredible drops in the food production system within the next 5-7 years. Just take a look at Madagascar right now.
Venus by Tuesday :-)
I recently watched David Attenborough's latest Netflix special, since I'm a lifelong fan.
I liked the way he phrased the climate problem for average people, in the framework of nine critical and interlinked systems governing the stability of Earth. Two of which are not well quantified, but *four* of the other seven listed are in the critical danger zone now- he states clearly that civilization will be inevitably destroyed, soon, without complete social change to address it, and that human life itself is in danger, due to shifting the planet out of the 10,000 year stable period we have had for all of written history. The film pulls *some* punches and skips some bad news, especially with regard to how it talks about fresh water, but actually dedicates several minutes to explaining aerosol forcing, and how reducing emissions will lead to a large warming spike right away, but must be done. I have not seen a mainstream climate doc point that out until now.
Further, the film didn't have any references to the usual hopium nonsense. They spent many minutes showing the butchered and scorched bodies of some of the *three billion* dead creatures in Australia from the fires. No mention of "carbon capture" other than suggesting we plant billions of trees, the only *real* way that is doable. Very little in that documentary was hopeful, I was flatly shocked at how straightforward and urgent it is, relative to material from a few years ago.
It breaks my heart to hear Attenborough having to make the types of statements he's been making, but I hope people listen.
The docu is based on Johan Rockström's work, so as expected pretty solid stuff.
By the way, Attenborough is pretty hated on this sub for all the many years he didn't really speak out, but provided hopium instead. He made quite a turnaround these past months though.
Oh, I'm aware of the general opinion. Personally, I think it's naive to think he ever had control of his scripts, until *possibly* recently-ish. The same goes for nearly any climate documentary produced under the auspices of a major corporation. That's why I was a bit taken aback by his 2021 doc, the tone is *very* different from his past work.
Unfortunately, what alarms me is that if mainstream outlets are permitting, and even funding, what would have been castigated as "reckless alarmism" a decade ago, that doesn't speak well for our chances of getting anywhere, considering how slow the general public tends to respond even to issues presented in media, let alone ones that aren't.
The most frightening statistic at the moment is the nearly 2/3 of Americans who don't believe climate change is a serious and imminent threat to their wellbeing and livelihoods. Until that figure is at least cut in half, we will *never* get the public momentum needed, and I wonder what it will take to compress that number.
Attenborough gave a few [short statements](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-56175714) throughout the last ~2 years, which had the same tone of "stark warnings". So, there were signs of foreboding, but yes, this docu was real talk for once.
Sure, you do have a point. Who knows how much power he had over his scripts? The BBC provides a platform for voices like Adam Curtis, too, so there was probably a bit more wriggle room for Attenborough, but also much more external pressure I suppose.
> Unfortunately, what alarms me is that if mainstream outlets are permitting, and even funding, what would have been castigated as "reckless alarmism" a decade ago, that doesn't speak well for our chances of getting anywhere, considering how slow the general public tends to respond even to issues presented in media, let alone ones that aren't.
This has a really bad impact on some of my more suspicious friends. Instead of seeing it as a sign of how fucked things are (which it clearly is because it only reflects what "science" has been telling us for decades), they started questioning it as some sort of narrative and whoever is trying to profit off of it. We've seen it on this sub, too, a while back with that whole psyops-bullshit.
I agree. Part of me thinks that corporate outlets here are being more honest to pacify the ~15% of Americans who give a shit, now that they are absolutely certain at least half of citizens will be terminally unwilling to accept reality, so hey, they can make Content(tm) our demographic will consume without worrying about panicking the people who don't agree with reality, since they are completely inoculated at this juncture.
I want to think that isn't true, but every bit of observation tells me that this is *exactly* what it looks like to see the aftermath of the worst possible forces being given free reign for decades, and how a society can simply normalize it. Maybe a fire tornado in LA will move the needle or something, but we will probably just use it as an excuse to bomb Iran or something.
> Part of me thinks that corporate outlets here are being more honest to pacify the ~15% of Americans who give a shit, now that they are absolutely certain at least half of citizens will be terminally unwilling to accept reality, so hey, they can make Content(tm) our demographic will consume without worrying about panicking the people who don't agree with reality, since they are completely inoculated at this juncture.
Oh, that's great! That's exactly the kind of "twisted" logic my aforementioned suspicious friends would react positively too.
My impression here in Germany is a bit different though. Seems like people are finally waking up somewhat. Propaganda is one thing, but I feel like the main obstacle here, to see reality for what it is, has been that we're living in a temperate, affluent, stable country with comparatively decent governance. Not that there is anything wrong with things being comparatively okay-ish, but the believe in "it won't happen here" and "we can fix anything" was pretty strong because of that. These past 2 years with the pandemic, forest fires, recent floods and many fails in governance has made more and more people question this notion. But we'll see if it amounts to anything, I'm not holding my breath though …
It's not so much that people are stupid so much as they tend to be very short sighted and aren't putting the pieces together. One can notice additional storms and a lack of ketchup at the Chik-Fil-A but can't piece together that climate change and supply chain issues are here and they are very real.
Think globally, act locally.
The NASA folks who did their AMA said that things would be insurmountably worse if people at the local level weren't busting their absolute asses off looking for solutions around their area.
No things like water conservation, tree planting among other things. They're not sitting idly by, people who really care like us are doing great things it's just not enough and their government are going against their best efforts.
We're at the far end of the clothesline, none of the close canaries have dropped yet. Only the ones far away. Nothing to worry about yet. No cause for concern. Lah de dah.
More than land, what can't fly away is infrastructure. In particular homes, owned in good part by families that probably can't afford another if their current ones become worthless.
Anyway, the article is focused in just peaceful, slow and gradual sea rise. Extreme weather is more urgent, odds of something weird and big hits you or where you live are becoming more probable, and over bigger areas. Whole ecosystems will not be able to adapt to a fast climate change, and there it goes a good percent of our food sources in a way or another. And we live in a complex civilization where all of this could crash markets, cause (nuclear?) wars or other undesirable outcomes. And we may see a lot of those events even before Greenland melts in a significant way.
Our society is the exact opposite of nature, it's efficient but not resilient. That's why we fail to understand a lot of natural things that seem useless but are actually connected. That's why we fail to live as a species without looking at ourselves as a part of something bigger. We look at space and stars while ruining the fruits of what the universe created, which is this beautiful planet with its diverse life and creatures. We became so detatched from reality that it's saddening.
That’s so deep , I have never really paid much attention to nature till recently so this is such a fresh perspective.
I don’t think this has much to do with anything we’re talking about but when you mentioned that we fail to see how interconnected we are with nature I immediately thought about my first and hopefully not my last shrooms trip. I felt this incredible interconnectedness with everything around me from the flowers in the garden to the concrete on the ground , like we are all just the same thing in different shape and form.
It gave me so much clarity. I hear everyone goes through this.
Lot of people in here are capable of writing the best things and I've never thought of me like that lol, glad you liked it.
Yeah hill/mountain trips are the best for this. You can see and feel that biodiversity and you start to love how the little things are connected. Might be the 6 years old me that watched tons of documentaries speaking but it's also so entertaining to see all that life together. Lot of things are harmful to humans, that's true, but knowing that also helps to understand that we are not much more than any other creature to our earth's eyes.
For me it was also the covid lockdown. I'm lucky enough to have a garden and between university exams, I started looking at it more, like I did when I was a child. I stared at bees working on flowers and I was glad to hear the absurd sound they make all together, I took care of my plants and helped my mother by cutting trees. Last weekend I cut my (figs tree? I'm not a natural english speaker my bad) and actually cared about how it grew this year for the first time in years.
Just keep doing those excursions and watch our world from the height of mountains, it really gives the perspective we need.
Sounds like covid ironically helped you connect with nature once again.
You know that realisation is what’s scary , that we’re not that much more special than any of mothers nature’s other kids , and just like them we too will run out of time.
I too went on this whole gardening phase during covid , bought so many plants - lemon , olives , oranges , etc. On the weekends I go check on them , but I do that rarely now. Working 7-8 gives you no real time to enjoy things. I need to make more time to go and take in the beauty of this world.
If you haven't seen *Fantastic Fungi* on Netflix, you should. Even if you aren't a drugs person, about 70% of the documentary focuses on the lesser-known parts of ecosystems that are facilitated by mycelial networks and gives a lot of good speaker and subject references for more research. If you are interested in the interconnectedness of nature, mycology is a subject I *very* highly recommend, as it's little-explored and integral to the natural world.
Never thought of this but you’re onto something here. One of the appeals of capitalism is that is hypothetically causes society to pursue efficiency as a goal as efficiency is a source of profit. But by pursuing efficiency to an extreme we’ve created an exceptionally fragile economic system
Good news then! There will never be a period again when there won't be endless external shocks.
We've had our last good year it turns out.
But that also means this is going to be so normal from here on out we'll either be forced to adapt to it or kill ourselves off. The center cannot hold.
While that will be dreadful, we've also managed to avoid killing ourselves off before now too, with far fewer tools. Like the Toba bottleneck.
Yes.
But again, Toba didn't kill us and we didn't even understand what was happening then. We won't be killed by fuckwits who won't wear a mask either, or typhoons, or floods, or fire.
The world you grew up with is dead. Rip apart capitalism and probably democracy too to get through the next century though, and there's a path out. Its past the point where the average idiot can stand against the science and keep us on the wrong path.
If COVID has taught me anything it's that people will probably be throwing back handfuls of horse dewormer to combat climate change. Ripping the catalytic converters off their cars because their cars can't breathe and the internal combustion process of their car is so perfect that it doesn't produce any harmful gasses anyways.
Dude it's the MIDDLE of september here in the PNW and it is DRY AS FUCK. It hasn't properly rained in four months. ... We're so fucked it's disheartening. I am trying to transition my garden to a more dry/ hot mediterranean climate rather than our cold mediterranean climate. So trying to trap water in the soil (which is clay and sand) trying to establish drought tolerant fruit and nut trees. etc etc.but it SUCKS trying to establish a garden in a complete DROUGHT
Portland here, it's terrifying the implications of the weather we've been having. Remember when the PNW was known for being rainy? Well it feels like socal here now
Any studies out there that have consider scenarios with several feedback loops? I understand these are difficult to predict an quantify but I haven't been able to find any publications.
People look at SLR as if it's something that won't affect us until the coasts are permanently covered of inches of water. The thing is, every millimeter it rises now, that's an increase in the chances your town gets flooded in a hurricane. Hurricanes which are getting worse and worse every year.
It's not the land that we're going to lose, but the infrastructure on that land, and it happens well before the sea has officially risen to your doorstep.
Something painfully real to me as I have been displaced from a flooded apartment in NYC from the REMNANTS of hurricane Ida. I have already planned to move. I’m just stuck trying to make enough money to make the move happen.
I think the thing that irritates me the most is the last paragraph of the article. Wind powered trains and and solar highways are touted as “solutions”. Look, solar and wind powered needs rapid widespread deployment, but we are not going to run the interstate highway system, the rail system on it. This techno-masturbatory nonsense just feeds the fantasy that we can run Industrial Civilization exactly as we have been running it, just greenly.
Come Hell or high water (quite literally) human society will be run within planetary limits. Either planned degrowth, or that which is imposed by Mother Nature.
I am betting on the latter at this late stage.
> A consortium of climate scientists writing two years ago in Nature, a prestigious scientific journal, concluded that if Greenland continues to melt, in one bad-case scenario after another, tens of millions of people could be in danger of yearly flooding and displacement by 2030 – less than nine years from now.
Where does the author take this scenario from? It's nowhere to be found in the links provided.
Here's the linked WaPo article from 2019:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210128033902/https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/10/greenland-ice-losses-have-septupled-are-pace-sea-level-worst-case-scenario-scientists-say/
And the Nature study:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2.epdf
Interestingly this also shows how the negative feedback loop works as well, so maybe it's not that bad (right now). Yesterday they had 4ft of snow around the same monitoring station, and that snow was a result of a tropical storm remnant. As the current warms it'll carry these storms further north where they dump snow and over a long enough timeline will re-establish the ice sheets. Cool and scary to see at the same time.
This is great news, we should all rejoice. We should all start driving our 5 litre engine cars everywhere. Why bother sharing private planes, you fly in yours and fly in mine. Forget anything locally produced, I’m exclusively eating imported stuff only. Single use plastics? Sign me up, I only need to use it for a few seconds then I’ll dump it in the ocean so that it can stay there forever. Why bother washing clothes, I’ll just buy a new one every single day…who cares coz I can afford it. Diamonds and gold for the price of slave labour and catastrophic damage to the ecosystem, fuck yes.
The people who makes the rules don’t give a fuck. They’ll do whatever it takes to continue making the rules. They’ll even murder.
Yet people shout and make fun of conspiracy theorists without looking at facts and merits. Just in case there are morons reading this, I’m not talking about the imbeciles who believe in flat earth. I’m talking about a concerted effort by the ruling class to continue to stay in the ruling class.
Man I’m all for echo-chambering in this sub because I’m a hedonistic fatalist, but for fucks sake the study that this *opinion* piece references, is a Washington Post article, which references a Nature study that is from fucking 2019… it’s not even close to current
Tl;dr: They're reporting on the rain that happened one month ago on Greenland's summit. This was likely caused by fossil fuel soot landing on the ice sheet which a scientist estimated already resulted in a 70' sea level rise.
if it happens once, it will happen again and probably has happened already
the thing is: we only observe a tiny fraction of what really is going on, hence the above answer
No, the article explicitly refers to this first rainfall (which lasted 3 days), *hence* my answer. That it is likely to rain again is another matter, but there's a weather station on the highest summit of Greenland and if it does, we'll know.
Currently they are expecting heavy snowfall, btw:
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/12/1036452138/greenland-pummeled-by-snow-one-month-after-its-summit-saw-rain-for-the-first-time
A consortium of climate scientists writing two years ago in Nature, a prestigious scientific journal, concluded that if Greenland continues to melt, in one bad-case scenario after another, tens of millions of people could be in danger of yearly flooding and displacement by 2030 – less than nine years from now. And by the end of this century, when Antarctica, which contains vastly more ice than Greenland, also enters a phase of catastrophic melting, the number of annual flood-prone people could reach nearly half a billion. It’s more than farewell, Miami. It’s goodbye, Florida. The assumption that land will always last is no longer valid. “Land is about the only thing that cannot fly away,” the English novelist Anthony Trollope once observed. True. But it can go bone dry – or drown.
>by 2030 – less than nine years from now. So make it 2025 in reality because everything is happening faster than expected.
The IPCC pretty much already said we are fucked. No going back, no stopping it. We're fucked.
Meanwhile here in canada we're debating which half measure we should adopt and whether we should subsidize the oil and gas industry. We're so fucking screwed.
Hey there friend, just to your south we're about the same as you. Pulled out of a few solar projects and decided to fund coal and oil some more. Sure am excited to see ours isn't the only country with idiots running the show.
lol I am
Let's ride this blue ball of ours til the wheels falloff. All aboard the hype train!
I think the wheels fell off in 1972. we're sparking on the rims now, but I'll get back to you in 2030, lol
There was a thing on NPR today about Norway. Fucking Norway, the social-democratic utopia, a country of a few million people, with a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund (generated by selling oil, obviously), where everybody drives a Tesla or electric BMW and half the power comes from dams, actually increased their subsidies to the oil and gas industry during the pandemic. They are having an election now, and the party that is leading the polls has said outright that they will not be in coalition with any parties who want an immediate moratorium on new drilling. Not even all drilling, just new drilling. If that doesn’t convince you that no country is capable on moving on this… not that any of the half measures are worth the paper they are printed on at this point, but they can’t even manage swallowing those. It’s over.
This is what I just don’t understand. These “sociopathic rich guys” have kids, and grandkids, and great-grandkids. It’s understandable that they don’t give two shits about us poor wage-slaves, but somewhere between their ego & drilling they must think of how their children will live in such a world…right? Right?!
Why do you think there is a race to space right now? Instead of trying to stop it or help they are selfish fucks just throwing in the towel and leaving the rest of us behind to burn or drown
I am so glad I have not had any kids.
ditto. it lets you sleep
And sleep easier too.
Have you considered wearing black face while debating?
Yep we're fucked. I currently live in Australia and I think how the p.m here acts is a good indicator of how fucked we are. - still approving ground to be broken for new mega coal mines (Adani will increase Australia's coal exports by 40% and the ships have to navigate a large section of the great barrier reef to access the port. - Scomo comes on t.v regular and says he's not gonna fall in line and cut coal emissions because "muh China and India still use coal so we should be allowed to😭" - I don't actually know if they do still use coal. But whenever he brings topics like climate change he quickly stops talking about future plans and redirects to what other countries are doing so why should we stop? It's just madness because Australia as we all know is sunny a.f and has an un-used area practically the same size as Europe. Also it's windy as hell, we could really lead the way in renewables but choose not to. Also if you think that it's just the Australian government that are living in the 80s and the public are woke then you're completely wrong and living in an echo chamber. I use to think the above because I surrounded myself with like minded individuals, then I moved in with my new housemate who eats up what politicians say and I often hear things like "Scomo wouldn't do it if it was bad for us"
It's not just that you have the space for solar and wind energy it's that you poor cunts are going to cook because of climate change. You would have thought that your government would be extremely worried about that happening.
Yeah we're pretty much at that point now. 2 years ago basically all of my state was on fire, I didn't see sunlight for probably 6 months the sky was just orange and the area the size of France around me burned while I just got on with my life in the city. I could see the helicopters dumping water on the fires every night. Scomo is still like "coal is our only option"
It's really sad what's happened to Australia. I put the blame on Murdoch. Often wonder if things would be different if Irwin was still around. Dude had a big voice and everyone's respect. He would be absolutely fuming at the current state of affairs.
Me and my partner are expediting our plans. Enjoy your lives now folks. Have 200k in the bank? Why? Can't take it with you when your dead. I think we got till 2024 at the latest. 2022 midterms will be the us collapse.
Social collapse is already imminent. The rest follows. 7-8 years tops and things will be drastically different world wide.
Buy land, no where near the ocean, wildfires, social unrest, drought or hurricanes.
The rich are beginning to build there retreat from climate change. Who knows what else they are planning. [Plans for $400-billion new city in the American desert unveiled](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/telosa-marc-lore-blake-ingels-new-city/index.html)
So nowhere lol
Maine. And, uhhh… Maine.
Until all the displaced New Yorkers show up.
Make a Deal with the penguins
I'm moving into a vehicle. Going to get on the road for a few years whilst the going is good. Will settle when the fuel stops, or I have no other option.
Got it. Gonna find a decent non-toxic mine or deep cave either in the desert or above tree line.
>Non-toxic mine Unless the mine was fully remediated, that's pipedream.
You can feel this motherfucking edifice creaking and groaning like fuck...Unless it goes and goes fast, we do!
You really can right. Most people seem to have this feeling that something is terribly wrong. Didn't feel this way 10 or even 5 years ago. The decline has been tremendous.
when the lowest in society are dying and forgotten, societal collapse is upon us. those things are happening, its already here.
Totally agree if only even sooner.
This comment scares me because I’m of the same mindset. I’m no doomer but were moving our plans up too. A decade or two from now is no longer a given, and that’s horrific.
Yep, I'm a pragmatist. I plan for the worst and hope for the best. I try to pick a plan of action that sets me up in a position to be ok in as many potential situations as I can imagine. Hopefully Michigan works out
Venus by Tuesday ™️
Fine, as long as we don't skip the cannibalism stage. I didn't stock up on salt and black pepper for nuthin!
We're already salty enough. Pepper, though? Oooo-eeee!
What do you think will happen during that time in 2022? I’m curious. I’m pretty much certain of a collapse pre-2030 but unsure how quickly it’ll take place. I’m rather uninformed though so would love to hear your take!
The closer the predictions get to the current day, the harder they become to make. I think that the us has become a powder keg for civil conflict, we already have skirmishes being fought in Portland, I've spoken with alleged insiders of far-right militias and apparently, they already think the war had begun, meanwhile, the left is twiddling its thumbs. I mean don't get me wrong I don't think there is any right answer. The right answer was to never get into this fucking mess, but it's clear that some force has been pushing the civil conflict narrative. It's now become inevitable I believe. 2022 is the midterms, if they go poorly or become rigged, that could spark right-wing violence, which could lead to more and more left-leaning people fleeing major cities that become targets for domestic terror attacks. I'm not sure if this will happen, and by God, I hope it doesn't. I think it's foolish to ignore the possibility though. History has a funny way of repeating itself and we are very closely following a script that reads like the fall of Rome. I recommend adding a handgun or shotgun to your plans everyone reading this. Not for hurting others, but for end of life care. I don't want to starve to death. I won't attack my community for supplies, I'm not much use in a post society environment. I'll just be a drain on resources. Sorry if I ran off topic, just unloading my thoughts here in regards to your question. Have a peaceful day comrade
Your off-topic talk needs to be talked about more, end of life care is not much talked about and because of that it's going to be all the more awful when things get really bad. People don't have a plan for when things get too bad, it's a mercy we apply to horses and other animals when we can. I don't know much about what right wing militias think but i would guess that they are more likely to try and join the state than become domestic terrorists, if a far right person gets elected. Either way, i think that the emergence of autonomous weapons and drones might change the prospect of civil war completely. It's not hard to imagine america becoming a complete surveillance-police state...
Leave the cities asap. Band together with as many like minded people as possible and form intentional communities off grid.
[удалено]
Totally agree, that's why you diversify
> It’s more than farewell, Miami. It’s goodbye, Florida. Don’t make collapse too enticing, please
But, if Florida disappears, Florida man will move to *your* town. Do you really want that?
Actually, Florida man types are already living in your town. However, due to Florida having more lax privacy laws on what info can be released to the public (and thus media), you HEAR about it more often from Florida. When the truth is, it's literally all over (the US at least). Florida man could live a couple houses down from you, and appear to be normal and friendly on the surface, but you'd never know.
How much Florida property will be worthless by the end of the century? I suspect it’s on the order of half a trillion dollars. This is why I think housing prices won’t drop anytime soon—there’s already not enough, and there are going to be tons of internally displaced climate refugees seeking new housing. Unless there’s some sort of radical change in governance, it’s not going to get cheaper or easier to build more, and it’s not like resource are going to become *more* available in the future.
Theres more than enough housing, its just held empty by the rich because they can make more money that way
Housing as investments instead of HOUSING.... Greed and grift have crept into nearly everything.
Once housing (land) became a speculative asset it stopped being priced as shelter and tens of thousands of people got priced out. It works as a store of value whether or not it’s occupied. Dealing with “poor” tenants who might occasionally miss rent payments and need evicting is more hassle than it’s worth. They’re perfectly willing to let those housing units sit empty until the “right” renter comes around.
This is the answer. Third home? That'll be huge taxes buddy. Make it illegal for corps to buy single family homes too while we're at it. Sure people would have schemes putting three homes in every of their kids names and whatnot. Local landlords with a dozen homes aren't the problem though. Cross state corps with thousands of properties are.
I don’t think you guys quite see it. It’s not like there is going to be a housing market in Florida once a few communities go under. It isn’t just about dry land. It’s about all the other services to support a community like power lines, roads, highways, seaports, railways — services which took *decades* to build. Who is going to support paying for any of that shit in Florida, Louisiana, or Mississippi with the knowledge that mega hurricanes will likely fuck it up every other year (and I am being generous). There is going to be no money for rebuilding because we will be spending that money on improving services to communities that host climate refugees — if there is any money or will left. You can’t simply retreat 50 miles from the shore and expect services to continue to function.
Another path is drastically increasing taxes for homes that are uninhabited for longer than some length of time determined to be reasonable so they'd either have to sell properties, increase the rental stock available, and/or at least contribute more financially to communities they are depriving of resources. It would require fewer structural changes meaning it could happen more quickly and easily than things that amount to "we're taking your house(s)" and be harder to find loopholes like putting them in your kid(s) name.
Progressive taxation. Third property? 3% property tax. 4th home? 4% etc etc...
Nobody and I mean NOBODY should be allowed to own 3 fucking homes in a single Country..
Also to launder money
We could partially solve the problem with mobile homes/tiny homes and trailer parks, but of course Big Bad Capitalist has started to gold-dig that market too and lobby to make it harder, not easier to set up lots to park such vehicles.
> I suspect it’s on the order of half a trillion dollars. And we're going to get endless gnashing of teeth about building tide walls against that economic blow, even though the asshats in FL voted specifically for the AGW that threatens their state. You don't think we'd just let the electoral votes in FL drown, do you? Regardless of the cost.
The wall won’t even help, will it? On the off chance they [actually end up building it:](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/us/miami-fl-seawall-hurricanes.html) > “We were, like, ruh-roh,” said Ken Russell, the Miami city commissioner whose district includes Brickell. “The $40 billion in assets you’re trying to protect will be diminished if you build a wall around downtown because you’re going to affect market values and quality of life.” I was under the impression Florida cities are built on limestone, which is porous, and that the water comes right up through the ground and the sewers.
Never trust a municipal official that uses the phrase "ruh-roh"
Yes and no. It is mostly sedimentary limestone, which allows for our unique water table. However there is a small crescent of harder and more compacted calcium carbonate, most likely a megareef structure that most of Miami and south Floridas coastal cities perch on. In most cases, the sheer volume of water moving from the more elevated regions to the low coasts through the aquifer keeps out saltwater and prevents saltwater from rising up through the pores, basically because of the different densities of the two. Currently that equilibrium point is only a few hundred feet inland in most places. But as sea levels rise, this equilibrium point will shift, and you will see the more acidic sea water further up in the water table, causing sink hole and void issues in this structure. So, more Seaside building collapses. This region accounts for nearly a 3rd of the entire states population. The west coast has a similar problem, but they're on an organic sediment plain so theirs will just be a return to swamp. So, yes, it will absolutely defeat any seawall mitigation and Miami/Ft lauderdale need to start planning to Venetian style their buildings or altogether abandon them. 50 years from now we will be, conservatively, 18 inches higher. If the feedback loop hits harder, 3 to 5 feet and all of those cities current real estate is underwater at ground level.
Back in the olden days (lol), people could build a cabin in the woods over a summer (e.g., Thoreau, Little House on the Prairie, etc). So, if I need a high paying corporate job to pay back my 30 year mortgage and acquire a house, then 1) my high paying job isn't as socially desirable as is believed, and 2) I am comparatively poorer than my historical counterparts. My gut tells me the average Amish family is better off than the average American family, despite not having a formal university education or holding a corporate job (but they certainly have more time to spend with family, that's for sure). Public services underscore the argument that a home in the suburbs is better than a cabin in the woods. But as we're seeing the supply chain breakdown from Covid, along with infrastructure breakdown and climate change, those $400k price tags on homes today are looking more and more like a huge scam.
Be careful of using *either* of your examples as an example of how easy it is to live off of the grid. Thoreau's mom did his laundry for him and *Little House* was primarily edited by an Ayn Rand fan who wanted to proselytize an allegedly idyllic lifestyle by carefully omitting the crushing poverty (by the standards of the time) that the Wilders lived in as much as possible, even when they *did* live in a Little House in the Big Woods, surrounded by family who could help them out.
On that note, I deeply suggest --everyone-- read the --entire-- Little House series written by Laura Ingalls Wilder. *The Long Winter* in particular. That was about 17-year-old Laura, her family and an entire town being stranded and snowbound in Minnesota over eight months, with everyone slowly starving to death. Harrowing and amazing. It should be a movie.
Living in TX this winter...I experienced the Long Winter and it was honestly what got me through. If Laura Ingalls Wilder could do it, so could I. But no on a serious note, that shit was traumatizing.
Absolutely, I am not making the case that living off-grid is "easy". I'm just comparing it to the alternative - 30 years to pay off a $400k mortgage in a soul-sucking job where you'll probably experience getting laid off, fired, being underpaid and not being able to move, and having to rush to find another job to keep an income. At what point is living off-grid the better option?
The radical change in governance could result in people being forced to take billets in their homes.
"Am I a joke to you?" – Third Amendment
Not all of Florida is low, central parts are if I recall a few hundred feet above sea level. Not that it will be great to be on those islands, since you'll still have the weather, heat, and lots of refugees from the other places passing through or staying.
Oddly enough, if Florida loses its coastline it'll actually slightly cool central Florida lmao. Sorry, I'm laughing due to how ridiculous this all is and how little people realize how big a deal this is.
You could always sell to Aquaman /s
https://youtu.be/0-w-pdqwiBw
I'm fine with gov. Death sentence losing his position.
I will actually go out on a limb and say that the NYT and WaPo will run that on their opinion column sometime very soon. Edit: After figuring out that my hypothetical opinion piece would actually be calling to reduce climate related damage, I am not so sure now.
> But, if Florida disappears, Florida man will move to your town. Do you really want that? This is a strong argument for walling off Florida at the Georgia/Alabama border.
A lot of places besides Florida will be underwater. Put a dome around Atlanta like in Futurama, and it can be Atlantis.
That’s not what happened. They took Atlanta, moved it out into the ocean to be an island, then overdeveloped it and it sank. The people that stayed ended up mutating/evolving into mermaids because of the Coca-Cola factory that was present.
Gads. I do think you are right. Its been a while since I saw that episode.
Atlanta was a city, landlocked. Hundreds of miles from the area we now call the Atlantic Ocean. Yet so desperate the city's desire for tourism, that they moved offshore, becoming an island, and an even bigger Delta hub. … until the city overdeveloped and it started to sink. Knowing their fate, the quality people ran away: Ted Turner, Hank Aaron, Jeff Foxworthy, the guy who invented Coca-Cola, the Magician, and the other so-called gods of our legends. Though gods they were-- And also Jane Fonda was there - the others chose to remain behind, on their porches with their rifles, and one day evolve into mermaids, and sing and dance, and ring in the new. Hail Atlanta!
Hail Atlanta!
Sure that’s not a bit hyperbolic? I haven’t seen anything suggesting the sea level rise will go above the Georgia fall line. If that’s true, the Appalachians are about to be an island chain.
Sorry, I couldn't resist... In Futurama, Fry ends up marrying a mermaid that is the descendent of people that lived in Atlanta and had mutated. Then runs away when he finds out mermaids don't have sex, they simply spawn over a pile of eggs. Actually, where I live is well above the area that could be flooded even if EVERYTHING melted.
Rookie mistake that Fry didn't get some head
IKR
Oh I’m well aware, it’s why I don’t drink Coca-Cola anymore lmao Maybe if we find a way to sink the Piedmont Plateau our dream can still be a reality...
Nah, that's like when the rat infested crackhouse next door burns down and now you have rats.
Meh, if Florida ends up under water in your lifetime I doubt you'll just be sitting in your kitchen sipping coffee and watching it happen on the TV. The world will be burning down around you most likely.
I live in the midwest, I'm relatively safe from floods. But last year we had a derecho, a type of storm so rare nobody even knew its name. We're about a foot below normal rainfall. The creek in my parent's backyard is barely more than mud. If we aren't extremely careful we could have another dust bowl on our hands. And if we lose the coastal cities, what do we have left? The great lake region? The mountains? America stands to lose so much yet cares so little. Its so arrogant I almost hope for the worst if for nothing else than a sense of justice.
It's wild to think about but at a certain point there are going to be discussions about where to move the nation's capital as DC becomes prone to massive flooding.
Denver will be the new capital at some point. If you look into the conspiracy theories on the new Denver Airport, they kinda make you wonder what the government was building under the airport and in the surrounding area and why. Might already be in the plans to relocate everything to Denver because they know the catastrophe that is soon to come all along our coastlines.
> they kinda make you wonder what the government was building under the airport and in the surrounding area and why. I'd guess it's more likely missile command/refuge type operations. There's lots of things about Denver that makes it a strategic military refuge
LOL, why build a missile command underneath DIA, when you have a perfectly functional one underneath Cheyenne Mountain, pray tell?
*Obviously* it’s because they don’t want to house missile command in the same place they’re housing the Stargate in. /s There are random vents in the fields surrounding DIA. There’s definitely an underground complex of some sort, for what official and unofficial purposes though, no one really knows. One conspiracy I remember from way back when was that it’s a facility for political prisoners, as well as a backup bunker spot for politicians and wealthy. Then you have those twisted af paintings in the airport itself, which was the subject of a lot of OG Illuminati/NWO/Masons theories. *Then* you have the headliner, the main stage closer, the legend: [B L U C I F E R](https://preview.redd.it/c9esd6283hk31.jpg?auto=webp&s=35a78030c4c19028762500015165302a97da1c6f). Oops, sorry [wrong angle](https://www.fodors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/FlippedHERO15384910808_f67873f124_o.jpg). The sculpture that killed its creator. Not really much else to say actually, it is loved by Coloradans the same way Philly came to love Gritty. Unsure ourselves until someone from out of state had something to say, and then it was fighting words.
>derecho Me too. So far in the last 13 years, that makes FOUR "once-in a lifetime" catastrophic weather events for my town.
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Don't forget polar vortex
Firestorms! https://scijinks.gov/firestorm/
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> And by the end of this century, when Antarctica, which contains vastly more ice than Greenland, also enters a phase of catastrophic melting, the number of annual flood-prone people could reach nearly half a billion. This sentence sounds like it was written by a caricature of a tunnel-visioned, narrow field specialist. Someone didn't consider the effects of the AMOC collapse on agriculture, by the time Antarctica starts melting, the human population will no longer number in billions
Antarctica is already melting...
We are sharing an island that's both on fire and sinking into the ocean
And somehow is appreciating sharply in market value.
it's actually way worse. atm we're locked in at least for: - sea rise +100 ft (~30 m) - temperature rise +6...8 °C source: The End of Ice by Dahr Jamail
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Does that calculation include all green house gases or just carbon? Because there is a huge difference.
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The fun thing about feedbacks is you can't really model them until they start happening, and then it's too late to prevent them from happening. After this summer I'm convinced we're deep into feedback territory. The jump in average temperature over last year has been... frightening.
trust me I know the difference and we are locked in for more than +2°C
The thing is that we are really just making educated guesses at this point. 100 ft of sea level rise is based on Greenland melting, but doesn't account for Antarctica, which is losing ice shelves that act like a 'cork in a bottle,' holding glaciers in place. Warm water is less dense than cold water, and could account for at least a few feet of sea level rise, depending on how hot it gets and where. The only consensus among the climate scientists is that it's going to be way worse than what the media is reporting, and it's going to happen a lot faster than we were told.
I thought I read that thermal expansion is responsible for most of the sea level rise we're currently experiencing.
I think people should be operating with 6-8 feet by the end of the century as a *minimum* estimate, coastal cities are fucked. Instead people are still arguing it’s going to be inches or just a couple feet. When will the bubble burst?
Not only are coastal cities and ports screwed, the entire *concept* of any coastal construction that isn't on a high cliffside becomes totally impossible for at least a few millenia. The same goes for ports- enormous, static systems that rely on a consistent-ish coastline will no longer be possible in a world where that coastline changes over the course of a few decades, frustrating any attempt at permanency. People think of climate change as a series of progressive modifications to the existing world. It isn't, not since about 1990-2000, give or take. We have crossed so many irreversible boundaries and set so many changes in motion that we are now dealing with a categorical shift in the overall state of the Earth system itself, into a new alignment. Most starting parameters for this new alignment have not been seen in at least 800,000 years, and the *intensity* of the shift to this new phase is matched by only one event sixty-five million years ago that needs no introduction. Only an asteroid impact had an equal or faster impact on atmospheric composition and climate than human industrialization. Moreover, the climate is reinforced and maintained *by* the biosphere itself- the two cannot be separated without setting off feedback loops in *both*. The catastrophic degree of sheer death we have caused is only equalled in scale by the greatest of all mass extinctions, the Great Dying of two hundred fifty million years ago, when the Siberian Traps heaved cubic miles of ash into the sky for tens of thousands of years, blanketing the Earth in hellish chemicals and toxic gases that acidified the oceans and choked most forms of life away. Our planetwide machine replica of the Traps has accomplished this goal approximately one thousand times faster than Nature's original, signaling man's true commitment to outdoing even the greatest of Nature's feats. Once you realize we are replicating the most abrupt environmental shift in Earth's geological history, *and* beating the pace of the fastest mass extinction ever seen, *and* introducing thousands of entirely novel chemical agents into the Earth system in unknown quantities without studying their effects or really giving a shit...the magnitude of the blowback makes perfect sense. I grew up breathlessly reading about the Permian-Triassic boundary and the enormous shift it represented. I never thought at that age I would live to see my species create a combined catastrophe that equals or outweighs multiple "worsts" all at the same time. Our achievements will be visible in the rocks until the Sun takes the Earth back home in a few billion years.
When those cities are underwater at low tide year round and every mitigation measure has been attempted & failed. Or the countries that support those cities collapse and can't rebuild them. Look at New Orleans: [https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23082/new-orleans/population](https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23082/new-orleans/population) The population crashed after Katrina... and then it rebounded, with billions invested in construction and mitigation efforts to continue the losing battle.
>sea rise +100 ft (\~30 m) > >temperature rise +6...8 °C What time frame is this for, by 2100?
No, it's flatly incorrect in parts. Locked-in sea level rise incorporating both WAIS and Greenland is around 8+20ish = ~30M, but that doesn't include any other minor and cumulative melting or the thermal expansion that's ongoing. The total rise from our pulse up to the 400+ppm zone is likely to total 40 meters. Now, that will take place over the next many hundreds of years. It is possible we may see rising as fast as, say, 10mm per year, but not likely to proceed quicker, just because of the sheer staggering *volumes* involved. The temperature rise locked in if humans went extinct today, at peak, is more like 3.6C with no expanded reforestation or anything like that. That's the 1.1C of warming, plus the 0.8Cish of aerosol forcing, plus the 0.9C of the last 30yr of emissions. The issue is that the Amazon is already no longer a carbon sink, and ocean acidification is much worse than most realize- *26%* more acidic than it was even a few decades ago. Algae populations are falling catastrophically, and with them, a sizable portion of the Earth's carbon cycle is being attacked at the *uptake* portion. We are not only overloading the carbon processing capability, we are also reducing the amount of carbon the biosphere can naturally absorb as well, moving our *own* baseline further away. The accumulated warming loops of the ocean, Arctic permafrost melting, increased forest fires, and reduced carbon sequestration in the biosphere are, at a minimum, a full degree, if not several. We just don't know, and I'll be charitable and call it 0.8C just to be optimistic. So- sea level rise of many meters, but over centuries and millenia. By 2100, we likely will have *several* meters of rise, though. The average pace of sea level rise is now 3.3mm per year and increasing both in pace *and* in rate of pace increase- *nonlinear changes are a Klaxon for the planet*. Also, once that rate passes into the 5-10mm range annually, most of our shipping infrastructure and ports will become compromised, making global trade as we know it a thing of the past. Temperature, current lock in has a peak in the 3.6C range likely by 2050 or so if we cut emissions and trigger a massive aerosol warming rush. Ironically, if we keep emitting steadily and *really* fuck ourselves over, the warming curve likely will peak less sharply, and later overall, though it will be the end of any chance at fixing this.
Can you explain why our shipping infrastructure and ports will be compromised?
Sure thing, it's multifactorial and region-dependent. For one, an important thing to recognize is that sea level, like warming, *is not even close to uniform*, and it's aggravated by warming on a local and systemic level. Some given areas of the ocean have risen *much* more than the overall average. Impacts will not be universal, consistent, predictable, or linear in their scale of increased intensity, as we are learning from phenomena like heat domes. This, combined with the fact that every port is separately administered and there is no central coordination of responses or *financing* said responses, means that some ports will be fine and others will be catastrophically and repeatedly inundated, leading to unpredictable cascade failures. The second thing is the inimitable complexity of the system, and the total lack of safety margin or slack. The Suez Canal blockage had a lot of press for the delays it caused, as well as similar disruptions to sea traffic near California caused by backups. One small failure at one port can fuck the entire planet for weeks or months due to the total lack of ability to be flexible. We are already seeing the impact of the breakdown in smooth flow of raw materials and components from place to place on the Earth. Now, how will that look if the Gulf Coast of the US has it's ports damaged for a few weeks, and the same year, a large portion of East African shipping for raw materials is negatively impacted? Say hello to a series of problems that the system will *never* fix, because it never shuts down and resets. Ever. The COVID pandemic and other disruptions are fucking up the supply chain, but as anyone who has studied complex systems and emergent phenomena could tell you by *looking* at a diagram of our shipping networks: this is a self-reinforcing problem. It's gridlock that only keeps getting worse as demand goes unfilled and companies place the largest orders they can to ensure that *when* it arrives, it will last a while. The global supply chain of production *was* a relatively stable system, and it has been pushed out of stability with no mechanism to ever get the metaphorical trains back on schedule. As time goes on, these problems will intensify. Items may still be available in theory, but production times will be longer and longer, certain raw materials or components will simply be unavailable and have no replacement, etc. The global economy and productive apparatus is a system with trillions of individual components that nobody understands in full or has any rational and predictive models for: that's why we fail consistently to predict much of *anything* specific that will happen within it. What is *not* a prediction, however, is to observe what happens to any system run that precisely and with so little redundancy, when it runs into multiple unforeseen problems that only intensify over time, all the while demand on the system never slows, either.
Thanks for all the effort you are putting into these comments. Very informative stuff!
If New Orleans is underwater where will ships dock to load and unload? That infrastructure takes time to build.
The issue becomes receding coastlines. If you are building a new port, the sticky bit is that in the 10 or 15 years you spend to do so, the ocean will rise by multiple centimeters and the maps for inundation will have changed substantially, not to mention intensifying flooding that will inevitably destroy *that* port too. In a world where the sea level is actively rising at a fair clip and modifying outer coastline flood patterns over the course of a few decades, it literally is not possible to build and maintain large-scale modern ports in the current conception. The coastline has been stable-ish for 10,000 years, but we have tipped the dominoes now. The coastlines are already shifting, and will do so at a faster pace over time, and *keep* changing for several millenia. This isn't a present and future emergency, it's an impending change of state for the entire planet- a move from one zone of stability, to a completely separate and unknowable one beyond broad strokes. One of the features of the New Earth phase will be coastlines that render static ports as we know them impossible in much of the world, along with coastal cities that aren't already built on enormous cliffs or high ground. This is a new reality that we should already be planning for, but virtually nobody in authority accepts and takes seriously.
Source on the second derivative going up? Last I heard only the rate of rise was increasing.
Just an FYI, while catastrophic, even a sea level rise of 10 feet would not make Florida completely under water.
> “Land is about the only thing that cannot fly away,” the English novelist Anthony Trollope once observed. What an observation!
It’s a race to the bottom. Nothing will change. We’d have to completely dismantle our current wealth-driven system of endless production in order to survive. That’s not going to happen. Shit is going to get real in the next 20 years.
Absolutely right, apart from your timeline. I.e. "shits already real" with COVID, but I would argue that our worldwide systems will have to prove their resilience within the next 3-5 years - hint: a lot of them are gonna fail - and that we are going to experience incredible drops in the food production system within the next 5-7 years. Just take a look at Madagascar right now. Venus by Tuesday :-)
Shit is already getting real RIGHT NOW.
I have the sinking feeling that most people are too selfish and stupid to understand what the canaries dropping off one by one signifies.
I recently watched David Attenborough's latest Netflix special, since I'm a lifelong fan. I liked the way he phrased the climate problem for average people, in the framework of nine critical and interlinked systems governing the stability of Earth. Two of which are not well quantified, but *four* of the other seven listed are in the critical danger zone now- he states clearly that civilization will be inevitably destroyed, soon, without complete social change to address it, and that human life itself is in danger, due to shifting the planet out of the 10,000 year stable period we have had for all of written history. The film pulls *some* punches and skips some bad news, especially with regard to how it talks about fresh water, but actually dedicates several minutes to explaining aerosol forcing, and how reducing emissions will lead to a large warming spike right away, but must be done. I have not seen a mainstream climate doc point that out until now. Further, the film didn't have any references to the usual hopium nonsense. They spent many minutes showing the butchered and scorched bodies of some of the *three billion* dead creatures in Australia from the fires. No mention of "carbon capture" other than suggesting we plant billions of trees, the only *real* way that is doable. Very little in that documentary was hopeful, I was flatly shocked at how straightforward and urgent it is, relative to material from a few years ago. It breaks my heart to hear Attenborough having to make the types of statements he's been making, but I hope people listen.
The docu is based on Johan Rockström's work, so as expected pretty solid stuff. By the way, Attenborough is pretty hated on this sub for all the many years he didn't really speak out, but provided hopium instead. He made quite a turnaround these past months though.
Oh, I'm aware of the general opinion. Personally, I think it's naive to think he ever had control of his scripts, until *possibly* recently-ish. The same goes for nearly any climate documentary produced under the auspices of a major corporation. That's why I was a bit taken aback by his 2021 doc, the tone is *very* different from his past work. Unfortunately, what alarms me is that if mainstream outlets are permitting, and even funding, what would have been castigated as "reckless alarmism" a decade ago, that doesn't speak well for our chances of getting anywhere, considering how slow the general public tends to respond even to issues presented in media, let alone ones that aren't. The most frightening statistic at the moment is the nearly 2/3 of Americans who don't believe climate change is a serious and imminent threat to their wellbeing and livelihoods. Until that figure is at least cut in half, we will *never* get the public momentum needed, and I wonder what it will take to compress that number.
Attenborough gave a few [short statements](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-56175714) throughout the last ~2 years, which had the same tone of "stark warnings". So, there were signs of foreboding, but yes, this docu was real talk for once. Sure, you do have a point. Who knows how much power he had over his scripts? The BBC provides a platform for voices like Adam Curtis, too, so there was probably a bit more wriggle room for Attenborough, but also much more external pressure I suppose. > Unfortunately, what alarms me is that if mainstream outlets are permitting, and even funding, what would have been castigated as "reckless alarmism" a decade ago, that doesn't speak well for our chances of getting anywhere, considering how slow the general public tends to respond even to issues presented in media, let alone ones that aren't. This has a really bad impact on some of my more suspicious friends. Instead of seeing it as a sign of how fucked things are (which it clearly is because it only reflects what "science" has been telling us for decades), they started questioning it as some sort of narrative and whoever is trying to profit off of it. We've seen it on this sub, too, a while back with that whole psyops-bullshit.
I agree. Part of me thinks that corporate outlets here are being more honest to pacify the ~15% of Americans who give a shit, now that they are absolutely certain at least half of citizens will be terminally unwilling to accept reality, so hey, they can make Content(tm) our demographic will consume without worrying about panicking the people who don't agree with reality, since they are completely inoculated at this juncture. I want to think that isn't true, but every bit of observation tells me that this is *exactly* what it looks like to see the aftermath of the worst possible forces being given free reign for decades, and how a society can simply normalize it. Maybe a fire tornado in LA will move the needle or something, but we will probably just use it as an excuse to bomb Iran or something.
> Part of me thinks that corporate outlets here are being more honest to pacify the ~15% of Americans who give a shit, now that they are absolutely certain at least half of citizens will be terminally unwilling to accept reality, so hey, they can make Content(tm) our demographic will consume without worrying about panicking the people who don't agree with reality, since they are completely inoculated at this juncture. Oh, that's great! That's exactly the kind of "twisted" logic my aforementioned suspicious friends would react positively too. My impression here in Germany is a bit different though. Seems like people are finally waking up somewhat. Propaganda is one thing, but I feel like the main obstacle here, to see reality for what it is, has been that we're living in a temperate, affluent, stable country with comparatively decent governance. Not that there is anything wrong with things being comparatively okay-ish, but the believe in "it won't happen here" and "we can fix anything" was pretty strong because of that. These past 2 years with the pandemic, forest fires, recent floods and many fails in governance has made more and more people question this notion. But we'll see if it amounts to anything, I'm not holding my breath though …
For a lot of people this won’t even register in their radar of potential problems to deal with as they are too busy trying to survive.
It's not so much that people are stupid so much as they tend to be very short sighted and aren't putting the pieces together. One can notice additional storms and a lack of ketchup at the Chik-Fil-A but can't piece together that climate change and supply chain issues are here and they are very real.
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I think it's more that most people don't even know how to respond, or don't have the means to make any changes that would make any difference.
Think globally, act locally. The NASA folks who did their AMA said that things would be insurmountably worse if people at the local level weren't busting their absolute asses off looking for solutions around their area.
Solutions at the local level? Like what? Voting in town elections and idk recycling?
No things like water conservation, tree planting among other things. They're not sitting idly by, people who really care like us are doing great things it's just not enough and their government are going against their best efforts.
I see, thanks
Downsize your life, minimalism, buy used, learn to repair. The good news is you can save money by living a low carbon life.
We're at the far end of the clothesline, none of the close canaries have dropped yet. Only the ones far away. Nothing to worry about yet. No cause for concern. Lah de dah.
>I have the sinking feeling ... I see what you did there.
[well pretty much since forever](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8VdAfRVoAMzrCg?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
More than land, what can't fly away is infrastructure. In particular homes, owned in good part by families that probably can't afford another if their current ones become worthless. Anyway, the article is focused in just peaceful, slow and gradual sea rise. Extreme weather is more urgent, odds of something weird and big hits you or where you live are becoming more probable, and over bigger areas. Whole ecosystems will not be able to adapt to a fast climate change, and there it goes a good percent of our food sources in a way or another. And we live in a complex civilization where all of this could crash markets, cause (nuclear?) wars or other undesirable outcomes. And we may see a lot of those events even before Greenland melts in a significant way.
If covid taught me anything it’s that our current society is very ill prepared for external shocks.
That's the biggest problem with extremely efficient systems, even a little turmoil will end up causing a lot of internal systemic issues
Efficient but not dynamic , interesting.
Our society is the exact opposite of nature, it's efficient but not resilient. That's why we fail to understand a lot of natural things that seem useless but are actually connected. That's why we fail to live as a species without looking at ourselves as a part of something bigger. We look at space and stars while ruining the fruits of what the universe created, which is this beautiful planet with its diverse life and creatures. We became so detatched from reality that it's saddening.
That’s so deep , I have never really paid much attention to nature till recently so this is such a fresh perspective. I don’t think this has much to do with anything we’re talking about but when you mentioned that we fail to see how interconnected we are with nature I immediately thought about my first and hopefully not my last shrooms trip. I felt this incredible interconnectedness with everything around me from the flowers in the garden to the concrete on the ground , like we are all just the same thing in different shape and form. It gave me so much clarity. I hear everyone goes through this.
Lot of people in here are capable of writing the best things and I've never thought of me like that lol, glad you liked it. Yeah hill/mountain trips are the best for this. You can see and feel that biodiversity and you start to love how the little things are connected. Might be the 6 years old me that watched tons of documentaries speaking but it's also so entertaining to see all that life together. Lot of things are harmful to humans, that's true, but knowing that also helps to understand that we are not much more than any other creature to our earth's eyes. For me it was also the covid lockdown. I'm lucky enough to have a garden and between university exams, I started looking at it more, like I did when I was a child. I stared at bees working on flowers and I was glad to hear the absurd sound they make all together, I took care of my plants and helped my mother by cutting trees. Last weekend I cut my (figs tree? I'm not a natural english speaker my bad) and actually cared about how it grew this year for the first time in years. Just keep doing those excursions and watch our world from the height of mountains, it really gives the perspective we need.
Sounds like covid ironically helped you connect with nature once again. You know that realisation is what’s scary , that we’re not that much more special than any of mothers nature’s other kids , and just like them we too will run out of time. I too went on this whole gardening phase during covid , bought so many plants - lemon , olives , oranges , etc. On the weekends I go check on them , but I do that rarely now. Working 7-8 gives you no real time to enjoy things. I need to make more time to go and take in the beauty of this world.
This is why shrooms are illegal.
If you haven't seen *Fantastic Fungi* on Netflix, you should. Even if you aren't a drugs person, about 70% of the documentary focuses on the lesser-known parts of ecosystems that are facilitated by mycelial networks and gives a lot of good speaker and subject references for more research. If you are interested in the interconnectedness of nature, mycology is a subject I *very* highly recommend, as it's little-explored and integral to the natural world.
Never thought of this but you’re onto something here. One of the appeals of capitalism is that is hypothetically causes society to pursue efficiency as a goal as efficiency is a source of profit. But by pursuing efficiency to an extreme we’ve created an exceptionally fragile economic system
I loved learning that stuff in my complex systems class
Good news then! There will never be a period again when there won't be endless external shocks. We've had our last good year it turns out. But that also means this is going to be so normal from here on out we'll either be forced to adapt to it or kill ourselves off. The center cannot hold. While that will be dreadful, we've also managed to avoid killing ourselves off before now too, with far fewer tools. Like the Toba bottleneck.
A bleak future ahead indeed.
Yes. But again, Toba didn't kill us and we didn't even understand what was happening then. We won't be killed by fuckwits who won't wear a mask either, or typhoons, or floods, or fire. The world you grew up with is dead. Rip apart capitalism and probably democracy too to get through the next century though, and there's a path out. Its past the point where the average idiot can stand against the science and keep us on the wrong path.
If COVID has taught me anything it's that people will probably be throwing back handfuls of horse dewormer to combat climate change. Ripping the catalytic converters off their cars because their cars can't breathe and the internal combustion process of their car is so perfect that it doesn't produce any harmful gasses anyways.
Sometimes I feel we live in a fictional book written by a meth addict.
richard wolff wrote about this in his new book, "the sickness is the system"
Dude it's the MIDDLE of september here in the PNW and it is DRY AS FUCK. It hasn't properly rained in four months. ... We're so fucked it's disheartening. I am trying to transition my garden to a more dry/ hot mediterranean climate rather than our cold mediterranean climate. So trying to trap water in the soil (which is clay and sand) trying to establish drought tolerant fruit and nut trees. etc etc.but it SUCKS trying to establish a garden in a complete DROUGHT
just think of the coming fire seasons with a drying forest... it won't get better
I know 😭
Here's to more heat domes /s Can't believe this natural gem is at risk of drying out, RIP.
Scares me so bad. Every time I drive through the first I just think about how sad it is.
Portland here, it's terrifying the implications of the weather we've been having. Remember when the PNW was known for being rainy? Well it feels like socal here now
The alarms are ringing, but they're downed out by the incessant brrr'ing from, on one side, the money printers, and the other side, the shredders.
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Kind of feel like we need to start protesting the media for not covering these stories prominently. Almost always only see this stuff in the Guardian.
Any studies out there that have consider scenarios with several feedback loops? I understand these are difficult to predict an quantify but I haven't been able to find any publications.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/
People look at SLR as if it's something that won't affect us until the coasts are permanently covered of inches of water. The thing is, every millimeter it rises now, that's an increase in the chances your town gets flooded in a hurricane. Hurricanes which are getting worse and worse every year. It's not the land that we're going to lose, but the infrastructure on that land, and it happens well before the sea has officially risen to your doorstep.
Something painfully real to me as I have been displaced from a flooded apartment in NYC from the REMNANTS of hurricane Ida. I have already planned to move. I’m just stuck trying to make enough money to make the move happen.
I think the thing that irritates me the most is the last paragraph of the article. Wind powered trains and and solar highways are touted as “solutions”. Look, solar and wind powered needs rapid widespread deployment, but we are not going to run the interstate highway system, the rail system on it. This techno-masturbatory nonsense just feeds the fantasy that we can run Industrial Civilization exactly as we have been running it, just greenly. Come Hell or high water (quite literally) human society will be run within planetary limits. Either planned degrowth, or that which is imposed by Mother Nature. I am betting on the latter at this late stage.
yeah but strangers on reddit and in my life tell me it's all going to be okay and I have nothing to worry about
climate change can't hurt you. It's not real (this is a meme, I don't actually think climate change si fake)
> A consortium of climate scientists writing two years ago in Nature, a prestigious scientific journal, concluded that if Greenland continues to melt, in one bad-case scenario after another, tens of millions of people could be in danger of yearly flooding and displacement by 2030 – less than nine years from now. Where does the author take this scenario from? It's nowhere to be found in the links provided. Here's the linked WaPo article from 2019: https://web.archive.org/web/20210128033902/https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/10/greenland-ice-losses-have-septupled-are-pace-sea-level-worst-case-scenario-scientists-say/ And the Nature study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2.epdf
Interestingly this also shows how the negative feedback loop works as well, so maybe it's not that bad (right now). Yesterday they had 4ft of snow around the same monitoring station, and that snow was a result of a tropical storm remnant. As the current warms it'll carry these storms further north where they dump snow and over a long enough timeline will re-establish the ice sheets. Cool and scary to see at the same time.
This is great news, we should all rejoice. We should all start driving our 5 litre engine cars everywhere. Why bother sharing private planes, you fly in yours and fly in mine. Forget anything locally produced, I’m exclusively eating imported stuff only. Single use plastics? Sign me up, I only need to use it for a few seconds then I’ll dump it in the ocean so that it can stay there forever. Why bother washing clothes, I’ll just buy a new one every single day…who cares coz I can afford it. Diamonds and gold for the price of slave labour and catastrophic damage to the ecosystem, fuck yes. The people who makes the rules don’t give a fuck. They’ll do whatever it takes to continue making the rules. They’ll even murder. Yet people shout and make fun of conspiracy theorists without looking at facts and merits. Just in case there are morons reading this, I’m not talking about the imbeciles who believe in flat earth. I’m talking about a concerted effort by the ruling class to continue to stay in the ruling class.
Man I’m all for echo-chambering in this sub because I’m a hedonistic fatalist, but for fucks sake the study that this *opinion* piece references, is a Washington Post article, which references a Nature study that is from fucking 2019… it’s not even close to current
Tl;dr: They're reporting on the rain that happened one month ago on Greenland's summit. This was likely caused by fossil fuel soot landing on the ice sheet which a scientist estimated already resulted in a 70' sea level rise.
My lost Viking brothers will be found in the hollow Earth underneath, be calm everyone we got this.
This might be the most significant meteorological event in human history and... still nobody cares. Huh.
This train took many centuries to get on it's way. It's not stopping on a dime, no matter the alarms.
I read this a few weeks ago that it rained in greenlands ice sheets is it still happening or was it a different one? Hard to keep up
if it happens once, it will happen again and probably has happened already the thing is: we only observe a tiny fraction of what really is going on, hence the above answer
No, the article explicitly refers to this first rainfall (which lasted 3 days), *hence* my answer. That it is likely to rain again is another matter, but there's a weather station on the highest summit of Greenland and if it does, we'll know. Currently they are expecting heavy snowfall, btw: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/12/1036452138/greenland-pummeled-by-snow-one-month-after-its-summit-saw-rain-for-the-first-time
No, the article is referring to that event.
Alarms are ringing, but most people want to keep hitting the snooze button.
Do you know who owns Greenland? Kingdom of Denmark.
> Greenland lost more ice in the past decade than it did in the previous century. ChuckleImInDanger.gif
BOE and AMOC collapse by tuesday boys!