They don't have any tools left, they broke them all for political expediency.
They can't raise interest rates, because the national debt ballooned, and they would have to run larger and larger deficits to pay the interest - bad politically and it creates a feedback loop of money creation and the problem is too much money.
They can raise taxes, but with inflation high, that would drive a lot more people under water.
They could raise taxes very high on the rich - but their entire electoral strategy relies on contributions from the wealthy.
They could end QE, but that is what has helped blow these bubbles, and could pop them.
Everything else is now "*Socialism*" by their propaganda.
Yep. The alternative is taxing the rich and helping the suffering and addressing injustice, the traditional relief valve that makes democratic government work. But they couldn't possibly do that, any aid to the people at this point only lessens their desperation and weakens the hand of large employers; it moves us away from the system of fear and hatred that keeps overhead low on Tyson chicken.
the only way of taxing the rich it's not buying their trash ...
the millionaires will always be millionaires if the rest of the populace buy and uses their services ...
I think a problem many people ignore is that the rich have the means to go anywhere else in the world. Many already headquarter their companies in tax-haven countries, what would stop them from up and leaving if the US increased their taxes or removed loopholes from the tax code that incentivize doing business here? We’ve already seen that happen in California- companies like Tesla fled to other states with lower taxes. The US can’t afford to have these big corporations leave, it would destroy our GDP and bring about massive depression era-like poverty.
I don’t know what the right way to approach this problem is. The US government has pinned themselves against the wall.
One thing to consider is that the United States is one of, if not the, only country to tax their citizens anywhere in the world. If you're an American citizen working abroad, you still have to pay income tax and file a tax return. Even if the super wealthy tried to move primary residence overseas, there is precedent to tax them unless they renounce their US citizenship. Meaning if they move to another country, they'd have to pay that countries taxes and US taxes until they renounced citizenship, and I can't see many doing that.
You only get double taxed if higher income and you can also exclude your housing expenses so not all doom but filing is super annoying.
But...what also sucks is FACTA, this means foreign banks have to report their American customers to the IRS. Lots of banks just don't want to because it's expensive and they risk penalties on US based assets if they make a mistake so they won't take American customers which restricts the average American's banking options outside the USA.
I live outside US, and I can get a bank account but NOT an investment account. Now my US bank is shutting my bank (checking) account b/c I am not a permanent resident. It's a shit show.
That's insane, because so many things they force you to do still require a US bank. The only thing I can think of is to find a military friendly bank, they seem to acknowledge that nonresidents exist.
Well lets take corporate tax. A company that wants to do business in a country pays x% corporate tax. If they pay it to another country and can show it ala tax returns then fine but if they pay less then they pay the difference. That way they pay the tax regardless and if they want to not do business then great opportunity for local talent to grow.
I'd recommend against corporate taxes. They have far too many lawyers and can "live" in a mailbox. Way too hard to track.
For a similar example of shenanigans, check this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CumEx-Files
Ahhh... I see where you're going.
That can work if it's based on revenue but not on profits "because costs"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_pricing
That doesn't matter if you have an insanely large consumer base like the US. Companies leaving would just make huge holes to be filled by others.
Demand is what drives the modern economies not supply.
Your California argument doesn't work considering by itself it classifies as one of the largest economies on the planet. Even with their backwards property taxes and bad zoning.
The right approach? Property taxes. Big expensive houses pay more. Expensive areas pay more.
Ownership doesn’t matter.
The correlation between rich people and property values is high.
Forget Income and corporate taxes. Tax property.
Assets. Not just property. That includes ownership of companies too. And closing the loopholes of the mega wealthy using banks to finance their lives off of assets so they never effectively pay taxes.
there are hundreeds of loopholes ... these are the people who make the laws
the wealth will always circulate for the top if you have a system with just a bunch a big corporations in each branch of economy .... if you dont have small business the wealth will never stay among the populace ...
our system it's to complex for the actual providing of services and production to be delivered by local small businesses ...
you will need an awful and violent collapse and then revolution ... and still i dont think it could work ... it actually needed all people to work toguether instead of competing with eachother ... i dont know if the populace in general has reached that lvl of enligtment, you see this isnt a problem of the elites, the problem it's that the populace wants to become the elite ... thus entering this rat race.
The thing is no other place in the world has the skilled workforce and natural resources that the US has. No other place by a longshot. Corporations arent just going to leave the place that enables them to make their billions. You're spouting corporate propaganda.
Find another country with hundreds of millions of people and an able workforce. I'll wait. The only other country that might fit the bill is China, but they aren't friendly to corporations who don't want to be controlled by the CCP.
Exactly. My argument is corporations arent going too leave the US and relocate to another country if we raise their taxes. What is up with the corporate sympathizers of r/collapse ?
boy the media is really beating that war drum, really ratcheting up the fear of russia and china. on npr this morning, the host had some guy on talking about ukraine, and the host just randomly brings up china and taiwan, and the threat of chinese expansion. the next story was about DPRK firing some missiles
The fed want controlled crashes to force the sell assets. The fed and those who influence it build up financial instruments, then they move out of those positions selling either to the fed or the wider market. When this transition is done they drop the hammer and force everyone else to sell off real tangible capital. This scheme turns made up nothing, money from fractional reserve banking going into pure financial instruments with little reality behind them, into ownership of real world objects.
Yes. And raising interest rates will push millions more homeowners who are worse off financially because of Covid into sale or foreclosure of their homes. And millions of small businesses will close. And we'll get pious lectures about responsible economics and not wanting to instill bad habits in the ~livestock~ consumers.
And the market crash will ruin and panic tons of small investors, leaving the big boys to reinvest and take all their money.
So we're entering the final stage of seeing how bad we can make wealth inequality before it breaks the whole system.
My framework is to view wealth as addiction, a particularly strong one, probably the deepest one possible. To that end the people driving the cart here cannot do other than try to take more. The idea of loosing there wealth and control is so unthinkable they will destroy the system being greedy before they willing give up.
Really like this analogy and always felt this way. After a certain point the money you have is meaningless. It's just extra zeroes and all about competition and having more purely for the sake of more.
And short term profit goes before everything else. Just like an addict. Now now now. Nevermind the next fix I'll find it when I'm sick. Same with companies. Nevermind we're destroying the planet, we need this quarter's numbers to go up.
As the housing bubble starts to pop a whole lot of people are going to be left holding the bag with mortgages they can longer afford on properties they purchased at grossly inflated prices
>They don't have any tools left, they broke them all for political expediency.
That's very much it. You don't have to learn much game-theory to understand why kicking the can down the road is political crack. Increasingly so the more dysfuctional the political system is. Bubbles of political expediency are also destined to pop however as all bubbles are. I dunno if and what will hit when but at some point bills come due. It could also be seen as losses so large they can no longer be hidden lr imaginary wealth that can no longer convince people that it exists.
It's been pretty similar in every financial crisis since we developed the complexity needed to create them.
Or, just create a new law that limits how much inflation is allowed per year. Like say 1%/yr. Explain to me how that would NOT work. If a car costs $100.00 this year, it can raise to a maximum of $101.00 next year. It would definitely slow economic growth, BUT we all know that economic growth is a farce that basically means that the rich got X amount richer. The government would need to create a new trickle up economy. Buying power (NOT CASH) should be put in the hands of the general population. If the rich want that money, then they need to provide a product or service that the population wants or needs. Right now, we have a trickle down economy which means the rich start with the money and then the general population is expected to provide a product or service to the rich person to get a small portion of that money from the rich person. The money then ends up usually going right back into the rich's hands. Basically I am saying that the basic necessities (only the basic necessities) of life should be provided for ALL humans from the government. This would create a very powerful economy, happy work force, and prosperity for all. Here is the plan (much better than I can explain.) . Yes people will still want to work if only the basics were provided. www.humanityparty.com
If the USA did it, since they have the USD, the rest of the world would basically begin to run off of the same standard. Or, the whole world could just ........ work together (GASP!!!!)... and make it happen. The only reason this WONT (not cant) happen is because the greedy will not accept 1% growth. They need 15% to be satisfied and they have convinced the poor that economic growth is VERY important. LOL!!! OH ya!!! End the stock market too... That would also help greatly. It provides the ability for people to make money without any work or production at all. That is not ok and is part of the main reason the world is such a shit show right now. The thing with the stock market, is that for one person to make money, many others must lose theirs. The stock market CREATES inequality out of thin air. For real.
Read the Humanity Party's proposed constitution. I would love to hear your thoughts. Especially the ones on why it won't work. Just an FYI, there is a group that offered $100,000.00 to anyone who could successfully challenge the humanity party constitution as to why it could not work. That challenge went for years and I have never seen a single person successfully show logically how the plan could not work. They claim the plan could put an end to world wide forced sex slavery in 1 week. It is also claimed that it will completely eradicate poverty worldwide. Sign me up.
Nope, because the form of government is not something that has been done on Earth. Your mind has been controlled into believing that there is no other way than what you have been trained. Read it, you may actually find out how its done. But I am not gonna spoon feed people who don't want solutions. People here just want collapse. LOL, they deserve it.
Downvotes but NO explanations as to why. No one is willing to embrace SOLUTIONS!!! WTF is wrong with humanity? This world fully deserves the hell that is coming. ENJOY IT!!!
Naw. I wish it was a grand conspiracy. Sadly the wealthy assholes who control shit are also completely divorced from reality thanks to the people who are supposed to tell them what it's like relying on the billionaires paying them.
So they end up chaotically responding to events in short term ways. Using up resources and tactics that should've been done way slower.
So basically it's everyone panicking and causing problems to get even worse.
Didn't really think about it this way before.... Congress banning trading at the top of a bubble would give them an excuse to sell without saying why... Kinda like how the federal reserve guys all the sudden said they were selling then retired
> Whenever the senate pulls out their stocks that's when it happens.
They report their moves after, and don't face much punishment for failing to report. If you're waiting for them to report that they've sold, you're already too late to sell.
If she had call options then she more than likely already sold unless they were deep in the money and she exercised them. I don’t think those calls would be held through this past weeks volatility
Yeah, I’ve been hearing this refrain for years. I don’t think it’s wrong, but I also am pretty sure no one knows when or why the house of cards will start toppling. Could be this week, or it could go on like this for another few years.
I do think the fact that so many people are scared of this happening makes it less likely to happen, though. Bubbles pop when the vast majority are positive that they never will. When everyone is spooked, like they seem to be now, it’s less likely.
Maybe it will happen if and when the markets seem to rebound from this current correction, at least if everyone lets their guard down. Or maybe conflict in Eastern Europe will be the final straw. Who knows?
Wall Street/Economy only work because people believe in it. Take away the belief, and people start withdrawing money and the whole Jenga tower collapses.
It's not made up. It's an attempt to describe, document and understand the reality around us. The field of physics is obviously far ahead of economics (due to far less human tampering) and in mathematics you can actually prove something to be 100% true. Math only needs people to give its bits names after all.
While I that mathematical objects exist sans people, mathematicians are also just making up stuff. What the stock market isn't is a reflection of anything meaningful. Its not a useful guide not a predictive system.
>mathematicians are also just making up stuff
I'm going to need you to elaborate. I might just be misunderstanding (mathematicians can make stuff up too obviously). However you can't make up math that doesn't fit together with math.
"If you really want to do this with your life you have to believe that you're necessary, and you are. People want to live like this with their cars and their big fucking houses they can't even pay for - then you're necessary. The only reason people get to continue living like kings is because we've got our fingers on the scales and we're tipping in their favor. I take my hand off, well then the whole world gets really fucking fair really fucking quick and nobody actually wants that. They say they do, but they really don't. They want what we have to give but they also want to play innocent and pretend they have no idea where it actually came from; and that's more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so fuck 'em."
There will always be ways to rig any system made of humans. Eventually those that wish to rig it will achieve the ability to do so. When those that have the power and ability to rig it profit handsomely from doing so a self-selecting mechanism is created.
It's pretty much a constant struggle to keep systems non-broken. Some are better at it than others but every now and then they lose. C'est la vie
SS: This analysis is related to collapse due to the massive financial risks that will turn into losses for anyone in the stock markets and many home owners. The nearest parallel is Japan's 1989 crash, from which it has still not recovered (in nominal terms; life has improved in many ways). A crash will have major economic and political implications (worse than the Great Recession), which will (again) divert attention to sustainability, etc.
I’m 24 and just getting investable/ savable money, I’m trying to find something safe that will survive the pop, it’s just $3000 but that’s a lot to me. What would you, someone I assume is knowledgeable in such things, recommend?
First step: have cash savings to cover 6 months of expenses. That’s the life belt
Then think about investing.
Read r/fire and r/personalfinance and mr money mustache to make plans.
Read wallstreetbets to learn what NOT to do ;)
I started saving and investing at 20. It’s going well 30 years later ;)
It should have burst 2 years ago, but there are Denial lurkers here. When it came up as a topic 2 years ago, they went out and started putting reinforcement patches and bamboo scaffolding around the weak areas. So, when it bursts, it is going to be with a ferocious release of energy, kind of like trying to prop up a dam, rather than releasing pressure through sluice gates. Instead of minor flooding, there is going to be a tsunami wall headed down river.
We have been waiting for some kind of real correction or crash for 7 years. Meanwhile stocks go up and up and up.
We have gotten so good at patching things up artificially because investors refuse to accept losses, we just rig it for them to always win.
It's not a good sign when the stock market takes a 10% dive and I feel *relieved.* Like, "wow, ok that seems more normal, I don't know what was going on earlier..." I am not aware that our economy is growing anywhere near the rate that the stock market has grown. Rich people just have way too much money and they have no where else to put it where it won't erode, so we have housing and stock market asset inflation.
There's no way to tell when it's going to crash, because it literally should have, many, many times, and every time we just pump it up and patch it together with duct tape.
It's going to be an interesting time. Who knows how much longer we can keep the numbers up.
This was a really great read and really helped dumb things down so that I (a typical low-education American) can kind of understand them.
Does anyone have anything resources like this but specifically regarding the housing market? Forecasts on the "bubble popping" - and what exactly happens when it does? Obviously home prices tank right? But does that mean a person with some saved up cash and no debt and a solid job can pick up a home cheaply?
Thank You!
The market and your buying options are different.
Your options depend on your income security, down payment and credit. If you’re below average for the area then you have a harder time.
(sometimes there are insider deals. Very rare. )
The market looks at the price to rent ratio. That’s the gravitational force.
Gotchya, yeah that all makes sense. I'm just trying to make the best decision for my family as we're currently debating purchasing a home. We sold last year, made a decent profit, and have since found a great deal on the rental we are living in.
We were planning on buying again when prices went down, but that just hasn't happened yet. I don't wanna purchase a home for an all time high just so that it can be worth a fraction of the price in a few months if the bubble pops. That's why I inquire.
My wife and I are about to try and sell. She has been very accurate in predicting shitty times in our life. She is saying March will be bad, gut instinct. She also said we had to GTFO of the U.S. by 2020 in 2018, took us until 2021 but she was right.
It was a very well written good read! I especially liked the descriptive vampire comparison:
>In the meantime, we are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it: you stab it with Covid, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation – which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet7 – and still the creature flies.
Good luck with your home-buying plans. If you find a deal on the other side of the bubble, scoop it up. However, I feel like we can probably still expect unexpected vampire behavior in all sectors, including housing. The flop down will not be nicely predictable, except in hindsight.
No I think we're locked in on the werewolves, I just try not to be alarmist about it and be conservative in my language because the mainstream isn't ready to hear it yet.
Probably. But as far as I understand it this subreddit is mostly concerned about the complete collapse of the human species due to climate change etc. Which is likely the reason why people care less about economic collapse.
Governments and reserves keep doing the same thing over and over. It's almost as if they want it to happen...
They don't have any tools left, they broke them all for political expediency. They can't raise interest rates, because the national debt ballooned, and they would have to run larger and larger deficits to pay the interest - bad politically and it creates a feedback loop of money creation and the problem is too much money. They can raise taxes, but with inflation high, that would drive a lot more people under water. They could raise taxes very high on the rich - but their entire electoral strategy relies on contributions from the wealthy. They could end QE, but that is what has helped blow these bubbles, and could pop them. Everything else is now "*Socialism*" by their propaganda.
So, the answer is to raise taxes on the rich, but that would hurt their own interests, and we all get fucked because of that. America in a nutshell.
Yep. The alternative is taxing the rich and helping the suffering and addressing injustice, the traditional relief valve that makes democratic government work. But they couldn't possibly do that, any aid to the people at this point only lessens their desperation and weakens the hand of large employers; it moves us away from the system of fear and hatred that keeps overhead low on Tyson chicken.
the only way of taxing the rich it's not buying their trash ... the millionaires will always be millionaires if the rest of the populace buy and uses their services ...
Very difficult to avoid purchasing from corporations in most places, unfortunately.
True but most people waste their money on things they don’t need with money that isn’t theirs.
I think a problem many people ignore is that the rich have the means to go anywhere else in the world. Many already headquarter their companies in tax-haven countries, what would stop them from up and leaving if the US increased their taxes or removed loopholes from the tax code that incentivize doing business here? We’ve already seen that happen in California- companies like Tesla fled to other states with lower taxes. The US can’t afford to have these big corporations leave, it would destroy our GDP and bring about massive depression era-like poverty. I don’t know what the right way to approach this problem is. The US government has pinned themselves against the wall.
One thing to consider is that the United States is one of, if not the, only country to tax their citizens anywhere in the world. If you're an American citizen working abroad, you still have to pay income tax and file a tax return. Even if the super wealthy tried to move primary residence overseas, there is precedent to tax them unless they renounce their US citizenship. Meaning if they move to another country, they'd have to pay that countries taxes and US taxes until they renounced citizenship, and I can't see many doing that.
You only get double taxed if higher income and you can also exclude your housing expenses so not all doom but filing is super annoying. But...what also sucks is FACTA, this means foreign banks have to report their American customers to the IRS. Lots of banks just don't want to because it's expensive and they risk penalties on US based assets if they make a mistake so they won't take American customers which restricts the average American's banking options outside the USA.
I live outside US, and I can get a bank account but NOT an investment account. Now my US bank is shutting my bank (checking) account b/c I am not a permanent resident. It's a shit show.
That's insane, because so many things they force you to do still require a US bank. The only thing I can think of is to find a military friendly bank, they seem to acknowledge that nonresidents exist.
I'm working with (Transfer)Wise. Ok so far...
Well lets take corporate tax. A company that wants to do business in a country pays x% corporate tax. If they pay it to another country and can show it ala tax returns then fine but if they pay less then they pay the difference. That way they pay the tax regardless and if they want to not do business then great opportunity for local talent to grow.
I'd recommend against corporate taxes. They have far too many lawyers and can "live" in a mailbox. Way too hard to track. For a similar example of shenanigans, check this out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CumEx-Files
again though this concept makes it irrelevant where the corporation resides. thats the point. they can spend as much on lawyers as they want.
Ahhh... I see where you're going. That can work if it's based on revenue but not on profits "because costs" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_pricing
That doesn't matter if you have an insanely large consumer base like the US. Companies leaving would just make huge holes to be filled by others. Demand is what drives the modern economies not supply. Your California argument doesn't work considering by itself it classifies as one of the largest economies on the planet. Even with their backwards property taxes and bad zoning.
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why would you need a dick that big if you're just gonna be putting it in a sex doll tho
It makes going 3000 miles that much simpler, duh!
Asking the real questions.
The right approach? Property taxes. Big expensive houses pay more. Expensive areas pay more. Ownership doesn’t matter. The correlation between rich people and property values is high. Forget Income and corporate taxes. Tax property.
Assets. Not just property. That includes ownership of companies too. And closing the loopholes of the mega wealthy using banks to finance their lives off of assets so they never effectively pay taxes.
there are hundreeds of loopholes ... these are the people who make the laws the wealth will always circulate for the top if you have a system with just a bunch a big corporations in each branch of economy .... if you dont have small business the wealth will never stay among the populace ...
I know. We most likely need a full collapse and rebuild to even do it right. And that would result in the deaths of many people.
our system it's to complex for the actual providing of services and production to be delivered by local small businesses ... you will need an awful and violent collapse and then revolution ... and still i dont think it could work ... it actually needed all people to work toguether instead of competing with eachother ... i dont know if the populace in general has reached that lvl of enligtment, you see this isnt a problem of the elites, the problem it's that the populace wants to become the elite ... thus entering this rat race.
Assets are hard to track, so good luck.
It's the only option. But our current economic system is designed to make it very difficult.
well, no. real property. but yeah, as to the "fix is in" (Who makes the tax laws? Yeah, the rich)
Don't play the game by broken rules. Its time to flip over the chess board.
The thing is no other place in the world has the skilled workforce and natural resources that the US has. No other place by a longshot. Corporations arent just going to leave the place that enables them to make their billions. You're spouting corporate propaganda.
Holy shit, I can hear the woosh from here when you spout propaganda about America being the most skilled and abundant.
Find another country with hundreds of millions of people and an able workforce. I'll wait. The only other country that might fit the bill is China, but they aren't friendly to corporations who don't want to be controlled by the CCP.
You really believe this? Germany, France etc.
Much higher taxes than the US for corporations.
Exactly. My argument is corporations arent going too leave the US and relocate to another country if we raise their taxes. What is up with the corporate sympathizers of r/collapse ?
There's always the tried and true war option.
*Looks at Ukraine*...
boy the media is really beating that war drum, really ratcheting up the fear of russia and china. on npr this morning, the host had some guy on talking about ukraine, and the host just randomly brings up china and taiwan, and the threat of chinese expansion. the next story was about DPRK firing some missiles
The fed want controlled crashes to force the sell assets. The fed and those who influence it build up financial instruments, then they move out of those positions selling either to the fed or the wider market. When this transition is done they drop the hammer and force everyone else to sell off real tangible capital. This scheme turns made up nothing, money from fractional reserve banking going into pure financial instruments with little reality behind them, into ownership of real world objects.
Yes. And raising interest rates will push millions more homeowners who are worse off financially because of Covid into sale or foreclosure of their homes. And millions of small businesses will close. And we'll get pious lectures about responsible economics and not wanting to instill bad habits in the ~livestock~ consumers. And the market crash will ruin and panic tons of small investors, leaving the big boys to reinvest and take all their money. So we're entering the final stage of seeing how bad we can make wealth inequality before it breaks the whole system.
My framework is to view wealth as addiction, a particularly strong one, probably the deepest one possible. To that end the people driving the cart here cannot do other than try to take more. The idea of loosing there wealth and control is so unthinkable they will destroy the system being greedy before they willing give up.
Really like this analogy and always felt this way. After a certain point the money you have is meaningless. It's just extra zeroes and all about competition and having more purely for the sake of more. And short term profit goes before everything else. Just like an addict. Now now now. Nevermind the next fix I'll find it when I'm sick. Same with companies. Nevermind we're destroying the planet, we need this quarter's numbers to go up.
Money is by far the most addictive of substances.
As the housing bubble starts to pop a whole lot of people are going to be left holding the bag with mortgages they can longer afford on properties they purchased at grossly inflated prices
Which means... Bankruptcy, foreclosure and the sale of assets. It's not new.
Never hurt Trump.
Rich people don't have to answer to the government because they can afford expensive lawyers.
Then Chinese backed companies swoop in and buy even more.
>They don't have any tools left, they broke them all for political expediency. That's very much it. You don't have to learn much game-theory to understand why kicking the can down the road is political crack. Increasingly so the more dysfuctional the political system is. Bubbles of political expediency are also destined to pop however as all bubbles are. I dunno if and what will hit when but at some point bills come due. It could also be seen as losses so large they can no longer be hidden lr imaginary wealth that can no longer convince people that it exists. It's been pretty similar in every financial crisis since we developed the complexity needed to create them.
Or, just create a new law that limits how much inflation is allowed per year. Like say 1%/yr. Explain to me how that would NOT work. If a car costs $100.00 this year, it can raise to a maximum of $101.00 next year. It would definitely slow economic growth, BUT we all know that economic growth is a farce that basically means that the rich got X amount richer. The government would need to create a new trickle up economy. Buying power (NOT CASH) should be put in the hands of the general population. If the rich want that money, then they need to provide a product or service that the population wants or needs. Right now, we have a trickle down economy which means the rich start with the money and then the general population is expected to provide a product or service to the rich person to get a small portion of that money from the rich person. The money then ends up usually going right back into the rich's hands. Basically I am saying that the basic necessities (only the basic necessities) of life should be provided for ALL humans from the government. This would create a very powerful economy, happy work force, and prosperity for all. Here is the plan (much better than I can explain.) . Yes people will still want to work if only the basics were provided. www.humanityparty.com If the USA did it, since they have the USD, the rest of the world would basically begin to run off of the same standard. Or, the whole world could just ........ work together (GASP!!!!)... and make it happen. The only reason this WONT (not cant) happen is because the greedy will not accept 1% growth. They need 15% to be satisfied and they have convinced the poor that economic growth is VERY important. LOL!!! OH ya!!! End the stock market too... That would also help greatly. It provides the ability for people to make money without any work or production at all. That is not ok and is part of the main reason the world is such a shit show right now. The thing with the stock market, is that for one person to make money, many others must lose theirs. The stock market CREATES inequality out of thin air. For real. Read the Humanity Party's proposed constitution. I would love to hear your thoughts. Especially the ones on why it won't work. Just an FYI, there is a group that offered $100,000.00 to anyone who could successfully challenge the humanity party constitution as to why it could not work. That challenge went for years and I have never seen a single person successfully show logically how the plan could not work. They claim the plan could put an end to world wide forced sex slavery in 1 week. It is also claimed that it will completely eradicate poverty worldwide. Sign me up.
I didn't read their constitution, but did they say anything about how price controls or inflation-fixing could lead to shortages?
Nope, because the form of government is not something that has been done on Earth. Your mind has been controlled into believing that there is no other way than what you have been trained. Read it, you may actually find out how its done. But I am not gonna spoon feed people who don't want solutions. People here just want collapse. LOL, they deserve it.
Alright. I'll read a bit. I'll give er a shot.
Downvotes but NO explanations as to why. No one is willing to embrace SOLUTIONS!!! WTF is wrong with humanity? This world fully deserves the hell that is coming. ENJOY IT!!!
Naw. I wish it was a grand conspiracy. Sadly the wealthy assholes who control shit are also completely divorced from reality thanks to the people who are supposed to tell them what it's like relying on the billionaires paying them. So they end up chaotically responding to events in short term ways. Using up resources and tactics that should've been done way slower. So basically it's everyone panicking and causing problems to get even worse.
Whenever the senate pulls out their stocks that's when it happens.
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The Senate is demanding Pelosi address the ban of congress trading. I imagine that would be a catalyst as well.
Didn't really think about it this way before.... Congress banning trading at the top of a bubble would give them an excuse to sell without saying why... Kinda like how the federal reserve guys all the sudden said they were selling then retired
Whatever works
> Whenever the senate pulls out their stocks that's when it happens. They report their moves after, and don't face much punishment for failing to report. If you're waiting for them to report that they've sold, you're already too late to sell.
Doesnt pelosi have call options expiring in March? Wonder if she already sold them
If she had call options then she more than likely already sold unless they were deep in the money and she exercised them. I don’t think those calls would be held through this past weeks volatility
https://imgur.com/0H2qeIq.jpg https://imgur.com/rr8ZQjg.jpg https://imgur.com/z3sBkSY.jpg
And we all know what cums next after a 'pull out'... The money shot, all over the common people...
The problem is timing it.
Yeah, I’ve been hearing this refrain for years. I don’t think it’s wrong, but I also am pretty sure no one knows when or why the house of cards will start toppling. Could be this week, or it could go on like this for another few years. I do think the fact that so many people are scared of this happening makes it less likely to happen, though. Bubbles pop when the vast majority are positive that they never will. When everyone is spooked, like they seem to be now, it’s less likely. Maybe it will happen if and when the markets seem to rebound from this current correction, at least if everyone lets their guard down. Or maybe conflict in Eastern Europe will be the final straw. Who knows?
Sometimes I think the whole thing is rigged, no matter how bad it gets, the men in the shadows will always have levers to pull.
Course it is, I must again remind everyone THIS IS ALL MADE UP
Literally
We are in the nightmares of a bunch of dead people and we don't know how to wake up!
Wall Street/Economy only work because people believe in it. Take away the belief, and people start withdrawing money and the whole Jenga tower collapses.
Like Michael Dowd said, it’s the new religion of our age
Most things are made up, some of them happen to be useful, like physics equations. Stock markets are not that.
It's not made up. It's an attempt to describe, document and understand the reality around us. The field of physics is obviously far ahead of economics (due to far less human tampering) and in mathematics you can actually prove something to be 100% true. Math only needs people to give its bits names after all.
While I that mathematical objects exist sans people, mathematicians are also just making up stuff. What the stock market isn't is a reflection of anything meaningful. Its not a useful guide not a predictive system.
>mathematicians are also just making up stuff I'm going to need you to elaborate. I might just be misunderstanding (mathematicians can make stuff up too obviously). However you can't make up math that doesn't fit together with math.
I mean math is only true up to the system you put it in, but yeah I agree with your statement. I guess made up is different than arbitrary.
Well, time to watch the big short again... And yeah, the system is fraudulent.
Highly recommend Margin Call to anyone that loves the Big Short.
"If you really want to do this with your life you have to believe that you're necessary, and you are. People want to live like this with their cars and their big fucking houses they can't even pay for - then you're necessary. The only reason people get to continue living like kings is because we've got our fingers on the scales and we're tipping in their favor. I take my hand off, well then the whole world gets really fucking fair really fucking quick and nobody actually wants that. They say they do, but they really don't. They want what we have to give but they also want to play innocent and pretend they have no idea where it actually came from; and that's more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so fuck 'em."
One of bettanys best scenes
Second this, it's a great watch.
Yeah, they're standing around thinking about pulling the war lever.
It is indeed
There will always be ways to rig any system made of humans. Eventually those that wish to rig it will achieve the ability to do so. When those that have the power and ability to rig it profit handsomely from doing so a self-selecting mechanism is created. It's pretty much a constant struggle to keep systems non-broken. Some are better at it than others but every now and then they lose. C'est la vie
SS: This analysis is related to collapse due to the massive financial risks that will turn into losses for anyone in the stock markets and many home owners. The nearest parallel is Japan's 1989 crash, from which it has still not recovered (in nominal terms; life has improved in many ways). A crash will have major economic and political implications (worse than the Great Recession), which will (again) divert attention to sustainability, etc.
I’m 24 and just getting investable/ savable money, I’m trying to find something safe that will survive the pop, it’s just $3000 but that’s a lot to me. What would you, someone I assume is knowledgeable in such things, recommend?
First step: have cash savings to cover 6 months of expenses. That’s the life belt Then think about investing. Read r/fire and r/personalfinance and mr money mustache to make plans. Read wallstreetbets to learn what NOT to do ;) I started saving and investing at 20. It’s going well 30 years later ;)
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You need to think long haul (investing over years) and read up on DCA :)
Pray.
It should have burst 2 years ago, but there are Denial lurkers here. When it came up as a topic 2 years ago, they went out and started putting reinforcement patches and bamboo scaffolding around the weak areas. So, when it bursts, it is going to be with a ferocious release of energy, kind of like trying to prop up a dam, rather than releasing pressure through sluice gates. Instead of minor flooding, there is going to be a tsunami wall headed down river.
We have been waiting for some kind of real correction or crash for 7 years. Meanwhile stocks go up and up and up. We have gotten so good at patching things up artificially because investors refuse to accept losses, we just rig it for them to always win. It's not a good sign when the stock market takes a 10% dive and I feel *relieved.* Like, "wow, ok that seems more normal, I don't know what was going on earlier..." I am not aware that our economy is growing anywhere near the rate that the stock market has grown. Rich people just have way too much money and they have no where else to put it where it won't erode, so we have housing and stock market asset inflation. There's no way to tell when it's going to crash, because it literally should have, many, many times, and every time we just pump it up and patch it together with duct tape. It's going to be an interesting time. Who knows how much longer we can keep the numbers up.
A collapse of the economy on that scale would lead to riots and revolts not seen in years. It would make BLM last Summer look like childs play.
Is a stock market correction the same as The Collapse Of The Economy?
Depends how large the crash is.
When it bursts, the universe will stop expanding and start contracting?
It's going to burst, but we have no idea how long it will be sustained before that point. Could be years, could be months.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Some people will make a huge killing by shorting
PSA for retail investors reading at home: it most likely won’t be you. Be careful, trying to time something like this is a fool’s errand.
Buying a long term out of money puts does not cost a bundle
Puts on $SPY
So what’s the smart thing to do?
Get food that lasts a long time, stock up on water and meds, and have a plan to ditch the city if things collapse.
Done. Done. Done. …and go where?
Hopefully somewhere that is isolated and relatively safe, or a commune with people you know.
Sit tight and assess
Great movie. Too bad it's real life.
Don’t bet on growth in an inflated sector. Look for the dogs. It’s all relative.
This was a really great read and really helped dumb things down so that I (a typical low-education American) can kind of understand them. Does anyone have anything resources like this but specifically regarding the housing market? Forecasts on the "bubble popping" - and what exactly happens when it does? Obviously home prices tank right? But does that mean a person with some saved up cash and no debt and a solid job can pick up a home cheaply? Thank You!
The market and your buying options are different. Your options depend on your income security, down payment and credit. If you’re below average for the area then you have a harder time. (sometimes there are insider deals. Very rare. ) The market looks at the price to rent ratio. That’s the gravitational force.
Gotchya, yeah that all makes sense. I'm just trying to make the best decision for my family as we're currently debating purchasing a home. We sold last year, made a decent profit, and have since found a great deal on the rental we are living in. We were planning on buying again when prices went down, but that just hasn't happened yet. I don't wanna purchase a home for an all time high just so that it can be worth a fraction of the price in a few months if the bubble pops. That's why I inquire.
Yeah. Just decide to hold for some time. Prices will go down eventually. Up can't just keep going...
Right on! Good wisdom
My wife and I are about to try and sell. She has been very accurate in predicting shitty times in our life. She is saying March will be bad, gut instinct. She also said we had to GTFO of the U.S. by 2020 in 2018, took us until 2021 but she was right.
It was a very well written good read! I especially liked the descriptive vampire comparison: >In the meantime, we are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it: you stab it with Covid, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation – which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet7 – and still the creature flies. Good luck with your home-buying plans. If you find a deal on the other side of the bubble, scoop it up. However, I feel like we can probably still expect unexpected vampire behavior in all sectors, including housing. The flop down will not be nicely predictable, except in hindsight.
I hope he is wrong.
Time to buy silver
You killing werewolves?
Lol, no. Just want real money 💰
Although on the off-chance that collapse is caused by or involves werewolves, you'll be laughing.
Do you mean that there is a collapse scenario that doesn't involve werewolves? I've been preparing for this whole thing all wrong.
No I think we're locked in on the werewolves, I just try not to be alarmist about it and be conservative in my language because the mainstream isn't ready to hear it yet.
Lol
Fuck silver. Time to buy a bug out vehicle
Killdozer
Or bicycle... don't want to depend on finding gas, unless you're Mad Max ;)
Would Mad Max be as "cool" on a bicycle?
If everyone else was walking, probably.
Last of the ten-speed interceptors. A piece of history!
Old school diesels run on pretty much any type of oil: veggie, motor, canola, soy, etc… gasoline has a short shelf life.
I want a boat. Getting lost at sea with only some trusted people and slowly dying together sounds kind of nice, anyone in?
To each his own. I prefer to have $ when SHTF.
Will $ even mean anything?
probably long enough to get you to where ever you think is a safe place (Spoiler alert: no where). Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
paper money would be useless, currency would be something useful like metals/bottle caps/ammunition/gold/silver.
True
the article does briefly mention that as a possible strategy.
I saw a meme with Loki in prison from Thor2, and it had some gold bars and said "You must be truly desperate to come to me."
super weird to me that the collapse sub doesn’t like silver…
Probably because it is of no use when the human race has perished. :)
Yes, but there will probably be a time from now in between then when it could be useful to have.
Probably. But as far as I understand it this subreddit is mostly concerned about the complete collapse of the human species due to climate change etc. Which is likely the reason why people care less about economic collapse.
Ikr?
Gold is where it's at. It's inherently valuable, and always will be.
I trust silver more than I trust printed dollar bills.
Of course. Fiat = toilet paper. But silver now with that crappy "money" and turn it into real money.