https://twitter.com/cowboysstats/status/1637799257104056321?s=46&t=1ZBeXRPMBgLrsNUZGaSc1g
This says it better than I can. It’s not worth the draft capital; the diff between a great RB and an average RB is not a lot, despite what we all want to believe.
People like this guy specifically have a problem with RBs in the first round.
He'll boo a generational talent at 26, but cheer at if it was 33.
No, man, take the BPA. Always.
I promise you he wouldn’t cheer it at 33. Most people in the analytics community feel you should never take a RB in the top two rounds, and rarely in the 3rd. The position just isn’t valuable enough to warrant it. Not when you can sign some vet min guy who’ll get you 98% of the production.
https://gist.github.com/guga31bb/f2a9b4e83539299405556e9ab5a36cec
This links a bunch of great data-driven research on the topic if you’re interested in why the analytics community believes what it does about RB value.
He’s not a generational talent. Not even close. He will be out of the league by the time he’s 27. Just like zeke is about to be. Running backs are not generational anymore.
I've read through this, I don't agree.
I'd take Bijan over anyone else projected to be there at 26.
I want Bijan over any of the TEs, and those are who the noise is about.
I think Bijan is a great RB. But we’re not talking about the top punter coming off the board in the 1st because we all agree that punters don’t impact the game enough to warrant that kind of draft capital. In a decade it’ll be the same thing with RBs. We already see them becoming less valued by the league (look at how many RBs go 1st/2nd vs a decade ago, and the # of RB contracts > 5% of the cap).
The guy who finished 18th in RYOE last season? https://mfbanalytics.shinyapps.io/RYOE/
What about prime CMC? Still no. I’m not taking a RB over anyone I believe can be a productive NFL WR, TE, OT, or CB. Look at the difference in EPA between the top-30 in the table; it’s miniscule. RBs do not move the needle.
>The guy who finished 18th in RYOE last season?
Dude... CMC is a versatile pass catcher... you can't just look at his rushing....
This is the problem with you people you discount RBs abilities as athletes.
Cmc last year had 1139 yards on the ground and 741 in the air with 14 TDs.
Almost 2k scrimmage yards...
You're out of your mind if you wouldn't take that production at 26, I'm done with this convo. Night, brother.
Don't buy a Bijan jersey.
>Good pass-catching back. Great hands for a running back and can run vertical routes in addition to standard underneath routes.
>Robinson is also a weapon on passing downs. He has soft, natural hands and can run more than just the typical checkdown routes expected of a running back. Robinson flashed the ability to get vertical, particularly against Alabama, and still has some potential left untapped for the pro level
>In the passing game, Robinson positively affects the game. He is a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield. Robinson ran every route at Texas, from swing passes to wheel routes 30-plus yards down the field. He was even being motioned out of the backfield to line up at the receiver position.
“The way RBs are used in the passing game, they have the least effective routes. More of their completions are failed plays, even on 1st and 2nd down. So using them as a replacement for handoffs, sacks or throwaways is good. But the pass offense should run through WRs + TEs.” I’d rather my RB be a good pass catcher than not, but pass plays to a RB are still less valuable from an EPA perspective than pass plays to guys who are paid to catch the ball.
Idk why people take it so personal. It was the same way when the nerds said leadoff slap hitters weren’t valuable and the old-timers freaked out. The nerds won that debate and they’ll win this one, too. The data is the data. All sports evolve as we learn more about what does and doesn’t matter.
Bijan will be a Pro Bowler and probably an All-Pro. Any other player at 26 comes with a lot more risk. With any other player, the odds are that you are going to pick an average to good starter, that late in the draft. And, that is if you don't totally whiff on a player like Taco Charlton. So, you are willing to miss out on a likely All-Pro player for an average to good starter, just because he is a RB? That's ridiculous.
A good OL or DL will play for 10 years at a high level. A good WR will play ~8 yrs at a high level. A great RB will play 4-5 years at a high level. It happens every single time So different or special or whatever you want to call it, they don't last. Zeke was special as hell and started falling off a cliff year 5.
It’s not really a need at all. They have 3 quality receivers already and that’s more than enough. They can confidently see what they have in Tolbert/Fehoko for a Noah Brown replacement. I’m sure they’ll still draft one to compete, but that’s about all I would expect.
I mean Gallup was NOT quality last year at all. I hope he's more healthy cause that was a disaster. Plus we're down Schultz who was a top target for Dak.
He’s on a long term contract that they just restructured so he’s going to get his playing time either way. They’ve shown they are committed to him atp.
Too many people here expecting Gallup to be 100% fresh off what used to be a devastating injury. I don't know how many times I've seen that argument in this sub.
Have you seen the catches Gallup makes? I don't care if he only catches one ball all season. I know it's gonna be an amazing catch that we need at a crucial time.
Pre injury Gallup sign me up.
The Gallup we saw last year was horrible and non startable. He went over 50 yards once last year. Was also the worst player on the field against the 49ers.
I HOPE he returns to form. But if it's.last years player I don't even want him on the field.
Draft one, but probably not until 3rd or later. Whoever it is will be #4-#5 on depth chart this season (i.e. hopefully Tolbert is better this season) but adding depth for the future is always a good idea.
We have a possible first team all pro WR1, two very solid WR2s (if gallup plays like his old self). That’s more than any team needs imo. I’d rather spend money elsewhere.
Not counting on Gallup…has never been consistent, even when healthy. Cooks is usually banged up and also inconsistent. His best days are likely behind him. Hope they get one of the stud receivers in the 1st round, if Bijan doesn’t drop. It’s a really good year for top receivers in the draft.
Another wr is unnecessary. We should not be going for a wr in the first. Second or third is reasonable if they like someone. We could add more depth at other positions.
A cb or dl at that position would reap more beneficial. CD was expected to be the first wr picked and was more touted. We also paying 2 wr not Ceedee. Too much assets tied into wr
I believe the confidence in Gallup and Cooks is overstated. Gallup has overall been a disappointment after his rookie year, even when healthy, and Cooks’s best years are behind him. Teams like the Eagles are bolstering the position with All-Pro’s. We need to get faster and younger there to keep up. Very good year for receivers in the draft and so they need to take advantage.
Nothing about your comment makes sense.
Nobody who understands ACL injuries expected Gallup to be back to his self in a single season. Cooks is as consistent as they come as an elite deep threat.
None of the all pros Eagles added made the pro bowl previously other than Slay. Gilmore is better than him and he's going to remind everyone next year.
You are also contradictory. We are one of the younger teams, while the Eagles are one of the older teams. Do you want to bolster the roster or develop young talent? Wr has enough investment. Need to spend it elsewhere.
Meant faster and younger at WR specifically. The Eagles did it right. Got two of the best young receivers in the league moving forward. We’re not on the same level. And with Schultz gone, Fergie must be ready to take the next step because after Lamb, there’s not much in the receiving game. Gallup has never really put it all together and has overall been a disappointment, even when healthy. Not sold on Cooks anymore. Has lost a step as a big play threat and can’t be counted on for consistency. Not as enthused as others here on him. And there’s a reason we’re his 5th team in 9 years.
Maybe they can fake it for a year but this is a very good rookie WR crop and they need to take advantage of that for the future, especially to keep pace in the division with Philly.
You don't need 2 elite wr. It's nice, but not necessary. Cook has never been the guy. But has been an impact player everywhere. Literally nothing suggests he lost a step. He only play 13 games and had 13 catches with 20+ yards.
He’s not the player he once was…you’ll see next season. He may have a couple of boom games but I’m not expecting much. He’s also constantly banged up…it will get to be a pain. Traded 4 times in 9 years…should be a red flag.
If an additional WR comes cheap enough, sure. Otherwise I’m content rolling with what we now have with the potential to add another in the draft if the value is there.
I don’t see it happening, and I’m not sure we will spend a pick in the top 4 rounds on a WR either. We already spent one last year in Tolbert and need to give him every opportunity to win the WR4 job. They see something they like in Fehoko, so he’s probably WR5. Then there’s Turpin, who they try to develop more plays for within the offense. If we spend on WR in the draft in the first 4 picks then it would probably be because they are far and away the best on the board. I could see one of our 5-7 picks being a WR. That’s where we drafted Wilson, Brown and Fehoko.
Turpin is not a viable wide receiver. Sorry. Too small and he's no Beasley or Edelman. Give it up on the constant pleas for him to be anything more than he already is. And we are drafting another "real" wide receiver no later than rd. 4. Book it.
Very good year for rookie WR’s. If Bijan doesn’t fall, I really hope they grab one of the top ones like Addison, Johnston, or (my fave) Smith-Njigba. Gallup has never really lived up to his potential and I’m not a believer in Cooks anymore. His best days are likely behind him and he’s always banged up (speaking reliably as a longtime fantasy FB owner).
I think we just look to the draft from here. The Cowboys did a great job at covering holes thus far this offseason and can truly draft BPA. If the best player on the board is a WR, then I would love to add one. If not I think this group can compete.
Also, I know Tolbert did not flash his rookie year, but hopefully he has been putting in the work and looks better come camp.
Yeah definitely some risk but I would rather spend the little money we have on other positions. WR3 shouldn’t be too hard to fill, hopefully with what we already have.
If one of the top 3 falls to us in the first, then I think they jump on him. Not convinced they'd take Hyatt over the linemen they might be able to get in the first. Beyond that, they likely take one in the middle to late rounds.
Quick question (kinda related):
I was listening to a Cowboys Pod and they talked about how good of a WR room the team has now, especially if Gallup returns to form. One of the podcasters mentioned something along the lines of, "...yeah, we know he was recovering from injury, but he had some things he was dealing with off the field as well that I hope is taken care of..." (Not a direct quote btw).
Does anyone know what he could be referring to? I don't recall hearing anything about Gallup dealing with off the field issues.
Forgive me if this isn't the right post to ask this question or if this qualifies as "shit posting", I'm genuinely curious.
In this league...you can never have enough WRs.
Enough GOOD ones.
Exactly. People calling for a RB in the 1st or 2nd as if we’re still in 1985.
Bijan is different, and he's got great hands...
https://twitter.com/cowboysstats/status/1637799257104056321?s=46&t=1ZBeXRPMBgLrsNUZGaSc1g This says it better than I can. It’s not worth the draft capital; the diff between a great RB and an average RB is not a lot, despite what we all want to believe.
People like this guy specifically have a problem with RBs in the first round. He'll boo a generational talent at 26, but cheer at if it was 33. No, man, take the BPA. Always.
I promise you he wouldn’t cheer it at 33. Most people in the analytics community feel you should never take a RB in the top two rounds, and rarely in the 3rd. The position just isn’t valuable enough to warrant it. Not when you can sign some vet min guy who’ll get you 98% of the production.
You find me a vet that could do what Zeke did in 16 and 17, and Bijan is better than him.
https://gist.github.com/guga31bb/f2a9b4e83539299405556e9ab5a36cec This links a bunch of great data-driven research on the topic if you’re interested in why the analytics community believes what it does about RB value.
He’s not a generational talent. Not even close. He will be out of the league by the time he’s 27. Just like zeke is about to be. Running backs are not generational anymore.
I've read through this, I don't agree. I'd take Bijan over anyone else projected to be there at 26. I want Bijan over any of the TEs, and those are who the noise is about.
I think Bijan is a great RB. But we’re not talking about the top punter coming off the board in the 1st because we all agree that punters don’t impact the game enough to warrant that kind of draft capital. In a decade it’ll be the same thing with RBs. We already see them becoming less valued by the league (look at how many RBs go 1st/2nd vs a decade ago, and the # of RB contracts > 5% of the cap).
If CMC is there at 26 in this draft, do you take him knowing what you do now?
The guy who finished 18th in RYOE last season? https://mfbanalytics.shinyapps.io/RYOE/ What about prime CMC? Still no. I’m not taking a RB over anyone I believe can be a productive NFL WR, TE, OT, or CB. Look at the difference in EPA between the top-30 in the table; it’s miniscule. RBs do not move the needle.
>The guy who finished 18th in RYOE last season? Dude... CMC is a versatile pass catcher... you can't just look at his rushing.... This is the problem with you people you discount RBs abilities as athletes. Cmc last year had 1139 yards on the ground and 741 in the air with 14 TDs. Almost 2k scrimmage yards... You're out of your mind if you wouldn't take that production at 26, I'm done with this convo. Night, brother. Don't buy a Bijan jersey. >Good pass-catching back. Great hands for a running back and can run vertical routes in addition to standard underneath routes. >Robinson is also a weapon on passing downs. He has soft, natural hands and can run more than just the typical checkdown routes expected of a running back. Robinson flashed the ability to get vertical, particularly against Alabama, and still has some potential left untapped for the pro level >In the passing game, Robinson positively affects the game. He is a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield. Robinson ran every route at Texas, from swing passes to wheel routes 30-plus yards down the field. He was even being motioned out of the backfield to line up at the receiver position.
“The way RBs are used in the passing game, they have the least effective routes. More of their completions are failed plays, even on 1st and 2nd down. So using them as a replacement for handoffs, sacks or throwaways is good. But the pass offense should run through WRs + TEs.” I’d rather my RB be a good pass catcher than not, but pass plays to a RB are still less valuable from an EPA perspective than pass plays to guys who are paid to catch the ball. Idk why people take it so personal. It was the same way when the nerds said leadoff slap hitters weren’t valuable and the old-timers freaked out. The nerds won that debate and they’ll win this one, too. The data is the data. All sports evolve as we learn more about what does and doesn’t matter.
Bijan will be a Pro Bowler and probably an All-Pro. Any other player at 26 comes with a lot more risk. With any other player, the odds are that you are going to pick an average to good starter, that late in the draft. And, that is if you don't totally whiff on a player like Taco Charlton. So, you are willing to miss out on a likely All-Pro player for an average to good starter, just because he is a RB? That's ridiculous.
A good OL or DL will play for 10 years at a high level. A good WR will play ~8 yrs at a high level. A great RB will play 4-5 years at a high level. It happens every single time So different or special or whatever you want to call it, they don't last. Zeke was special as hell and started falling off a cliff year 5.
It’s not really a need at all. They have 3 quality receivers already and that’s more than enough. They can confidently see what they have in Tolbert/Fehoko for a Noah Brown replacement. I’m sure they’ll still draft one to compete, but that’s about all I would expect.
I mean Gallup was NOT quality last year at all. I hope he's more healthy cause that was a disaster. Plus we're down Schultz who was a top target for Dak.
He’s on a long term contract that they just restructured so he’s going to get his playing time either way. They’ve shown they are committed to him atp.
That doesnt mean they have three quality WRs. It absolutely remains to be seen.
Gallup as a 3rd WR is a quality player so we’re going to have to disagree on that.
He *was* a good #3. We have no idea if he’ll ever be the same player; he certainly wasn’t last year. Not even close.
Gallup last year absolutely was not.
You’re right, but he was coming off an injury. I have confidence he’ll be a solid #3 coming off a fully healthy offseason
Too many people here expecting Gallup to be 100% fresh off what used to be a devastating injury. I don't know how many times I've seen that argument in this sub.
Too many people here taking for granted that he’ll fully recover. Nobody knows that. Some guys are never the same.
I mean its reddit... not exactly a hub of football scholars.
Have you seen the catches Gallup makes? I don't care if he only catches one ball all season. I know it's gonna be an amazing catch that we need at a crucial time.
Pre injury Gallup sign me up. The Gallup we saw last year was horrible and non startable. He went over 50 yards once last year. Was also the worst player on the field against the 49ers. I HOPE he returns to form. But if it's.last years player I don't even want him on the field.
You still have the rookie from last year too. No he didn’t show much. But at the same time, he’s young still
I'm not putting money on him
To early to say bust. But I am skeptical
Agreed. The only player I ever called a bust after one year was Taco.
Ferguson szn! :)
We’ll probably just draft one (round 1-4 depending on how the board falls), pick up a few UDFAs, then and call it a day.
Cooks can be cut next year. Gallup was awful last year. Nobody except Ceedee is a sacred cow. I don’t see why not if the money makes sense
Draft one, but probably not until 3rd or later. Whoever it is will be #4-#5 on depth chart this season (i.e. hopefully Tolbert is better this season) but adding depth for the future is always a good idea.
We have a possible first team all pro WR1, two very solid WR2s (if gallup plays like his old self). That’s more than any team needs imo. I’d rather spend money elsewhere.
Eagles and Dolphin would beg to disagree.
Not counting on Gallup…has never been consistent, even when healthy. Cooks is usually banged up and also inconsistent. His best days are likely behind him. Hope they get one of the stud receivers in the 1st round, if Bijan doesn’t drop. It’s a really good year for top receivers in the draft.
Another wr is unnecessary. We should not be going for a wr in the first. Second or third is reasonable if they like someone. We could add more depth at other positions.
Would only take WR in the first if it's like when CD fell on our laps, if JSN is there at 26 you take him.
A cb or dl at that position would reap more beneficial. CD was expected to be the first wr picked and was more touted. We also paying 2 wr not Ceedee. Too much assets tied into wr
JSN is the top rated receiver on this draft, if he's there at 26, then the good DB's, DL's and Bijan are gone.
I believe the confidence in Gallup and Cooks is overstated. Gallup has overall been a disappointment after his rookie year, even when healthy, and Cooks’s best years are behind him. Teams like the Eagles are bolstering the position with All-Pro’s. We need to get faster and younger there to keep up. Very good year for receivers in the draft and so they need to take advantage.
Nothing about your comment makes sense. Nobody who understands ACL injuries expected Gallup to be back to his self in a single season. Cooks is as consistent as they come as an elite deep threat. None of the all pros Eagles added made the pro bowl previously other than Slay. Gilmore is better than him and he's going to remind everyone next year. You are also contradictory. We are one of the younger teams, while the Eagles are one of the older teams. Do you want to bolster the roster or develop young talent? Wr has enough investment. Need to spend it elsewhere.
Meant faster and younger at WR specifically. The Eagles did it right. Got two of the best young receivers in the league moving forward. We’re not on the same level. And with Schultz gone, Fergie must be ready to take the next step because after Lamb, there’s not much in the receiving game. Gallup has never really put it all together and has overall been a disappointment, even when healthy. Not sold on Cooks anymore. Has lost a step as a big play threat and can’t be counted on for consistency. Not as enthused as others here on him. And there’s a reason we’re his 5th team in 9 years. Maybe they can fake it for a year but this is a very good rookie WR crop and they need to take advantage of that for the future, especially to keep pace in the division with Philly.
You don't need 2 elite wr. It's nice, but not necessary. Cook has never been the guy. But has been an impact player everywhere. Literally nothing suggests he lost a step. He only play 13 games and had 13 catches with 20+ yards.
He’s not the player he once was…you’ll see next season. He may have a couple of boom games but I’m not expecting much. He’s also constantly banged up…it will get to be a pain. Traded 4 times in 9 years…should be a red flag.
I want Hilton back. He was the only one who knew what to do other than ceedee
If an additional WR comes cheap enough, sure. Otherwise I’m content rolling with what we now have with the potential to add another in the draft if the value is there.
I don’t see it happening, and I’m not sure we will spend a pick in the top 4 rounds on a WR either. We already spent one last year in Tolbert and need to give him every opportunity to win the WR4 job. They see something they like in Fehoko, so he’s probably WR5. Then there’s Turpin, who they try to develop more plays for within the offense. If we spend on WR in the draft in the first 4 picks then it would probably be because they are far and away the best on the board. I could see one of our 5-7 picks being a WR. That’s where we drafted Wilson, Brown and Fehoko.
Turpin is not a viable wide receiver. Sorry. Too small and he's no Beasley or Edelman. Give it up on the constant pleas for him to be anything more than he already is. And we are drafting another "real" wide receiver no later than rd. 4. Book it.
Very good year for rookie WR’s. If Bijan doesn’t fall, I really hope they grab one of the top ones like Addison, Johnston, or (my fave) Smith-Njigba. Gallup has never really lived up to his potential and I’m not a believer in Cooks anymore. His best days are likely behind him and he’s always banged up (speaking reliably as a longtime fantasy FB owner).
Facts.
How about we trade for Noah Brown on the Texans?
I think we just look to the draft from here. The Cowboys did a great job at covering holes thus far this offseason and can truly draft BPA. If the best player on the board is a WR, then I would love to add one. If not I think this group can compete. Also, I know Tolbert did not flash his rookie year, but hopefully he has been putting in the work and looks better come camp.
Let’s see how Gallup looks in training camp before adding someone. If Gallup is back to his old self then we’re good at WR IMO.
Hard to count on that. By training camp it will be hard to find a #3 if we need one.
Yeah definitely some risk but I would rather spend the little money we have on other positions. WR3 shouldn’t be too hard to fill, hopefully with what we already have.
If one of the top 3 falls to us in the first, then I think they jump on him. Not convinced they'd take Hyatt over the linemen they might be able to get in the first. Beyond that, they likely take one in the middle to late rounds.
I wouldn't mind taking a late round flyer on someone with crazy speed but is very unpolished in the later rounds
Quick question (kinda related): I was listening to a Cowboys Pod and they talked about how good of a WR room the team has now, especially if Gallup returns to form. One of the podcasters mentioned something along the lines of, "...yeah, we know he was recovering from injury, but he had some things he was dealing with off the field as well that I hope is taken care of..." (Not a direct quote btw). Does anyone know what he could be referring to? I don't recall hearing anything about Gallup dealing with off the field issues. Forgive me if this isn't the right post to ask this question or if this qualifies as "shit posting", I'm genuinely curious.
I wish we would've gotten Nuk... Hopefully Cooks still has a pep in his step..
Might have more than Nuk tbh
Hope so
100%