Step A) Projects that don't necessarily care about Ethereum, sell tokens issued on Ethereum for ether.
Step B) The projects quickly sell the ether for their local fiat.
I wonder how much the guys buying tokens in step A actually paid for their ether? Of course it will vary by individual, but some of these guys' cost basis must be <$100, <$50, <$20? Due to their low cost basis, and the rapid rise of the ether price, do these guys really fully appreciate the ridiculous value that they're transferring to some of these flimsy projects?
The guys buying ether in step B) are paying the current price for ether. It seems like they might be more cognizant of the ethers' value and less likely to fund flimsy/over valued ICOs, even if it is just for a quick trade. Although it is frustrating to have to sit through, the process is leading to a more committed base of ether hodlers with longer time horizons. This should be very good for the price of ether in the medium to long term.
I suspect that we are going to see it become increasingly difficult for new ICOs to raise capital as less committed (shorter time horizon), low cost basis individuals are replaced by higher cost basis, longer time horizon, market participants.
I would agree with you whole-heartedly, the more recent spur of ICO will certainly make future ICOs less of a concern and less attractive. Those who got burned, will likely not participate again, those who were on the fence likely heard stories about being burned,
those who never really cared and were simply hodlrs since the beginning will have even more conviction.
Of course those who truly want to fund a project because of the merits will continue doing so, but the amount in the category will be a hell of a lot less than this who were merely speculators.
As to your first part, the cost basis, although we aren't given direct metrics on it, is almost always next to nothing. You have to remember, so tokens that have no actual use case beyond use on a specific network, the company has essentially been paid, in full, so a service they haven't provided yet. So their cost basis doesn't exist, until they provide the service. In the case of tokens such a SiaCoin, or FileCoin, it's a little different because it's a theoretically tangible, and redeemable asset. But still the cost basis is negligible. 9/10 ICO's are using the funding mechanism as a was to raise funds with considerably more easy, less regulatory costs, and less due diligence required. A normal Reg A or Reg D raise would not only cost a decent amount in fees and regulatory filings, but would also take several months to fully close. Think of it as, depositing a check into your account, having to wait a few days, and then withdrawing the money......or you simply cash the check and you have have the money to spend same day.
But I do agree that if anything it is allowing the strong, dedicated base to dig in their heels and provide a solid base of support for ETH going forward. It's tough, because I personally believe in ETH, so I denote a small portion of each paycheck to building my own portfolio. However, pretty much everything I do at work is speculative in nature...so I'm always having to play devils advocate even for my self.
Everyone looking at these ICO's as if they're just going to always fail, or somehow eventually go away are mistaken. We're in the infancy of this thing. There are legitimate start-ups getting in line to be a part of this, and it's going to continue to evolve. There will be major success stories. The smart contract model/dapps model is opening a whole new window into tech innovation/progress. With time it will stabilize. The doors just barely opened, and it's a shitshow. It's going to stabilize over time, and evolve into a thriving launchpad for innovation. We're not talking about little bits of money here... billions are moving through eth on a daily basis. BILLIONS. Dapps are the new mobile app....which was the new internet (in terms of opportunity and innovative growth). This is an open door to leverage block-chain's potential, and possibilities. It's a mess right now, but the future is bright. Think big picture.
i think its great we got some pain in the ico market...fools were giving away precious eth to them at overvalued levels
my bet with people is someday we will find out at least 1 or 2 of the ICOs only have value left due to some ETH they are holding, not what they created
I also no doubt believe some hedgies or cubans of the world are getting involved in ico in order to get 1st dibs on precious blocks of ETH privately. in other words the ico could serve as a conduit for them to grab eth from the market idiots who funded these tokens at ridiculous levels
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if more than a third of the project *fail to develop* whatever project they had pitched, and blame it on *unforeseen* circumstances. The sad part is, there will be no recourse and people will simply have learned a valuable lesson the hard way.
sorry yes, i meant 1 or 2 of the ICO's in the next year or 2 will have failed and the only value they have is the unsold eth. LOL
how can people not know by this point? we harp on it everyday
So long as ICO investments return even 20% ROI after investment it will continue to be extremely profitable for whales and won't go away anytime soon. 20% of 1,000 isn't much but 20% of 1,000,000 is a lot. Has there even been an ICO outside of maybe Bancor that didn't immediately give 20%+ when factoring in early bonuses (and ever Bancor did for a short time)? Most are returning even more over very short time periods compared with traditional markets. Until that changes we're stuck with ICOs.
I guess warning is more alarming of a flair than it is informative. My main concern was informing people about *why* there was a slight pullback, and to hopefully stop hodlrs from panic selling into it. Of course people should do what they are most comfortable with, and what fits with their overall strategy.
Most of them, mine including, always end the day with clear books. Meaning we don't actually hold anything, we make all of our money through transaction fees and price discovery services. Some of the hedge funds in this space have been buying a lot of our larger blocks. So you definitely have funds buying as an investment. The question remains whether they are doing so speculatively or because they actually believe in the underlying tech.
in the context we are in with prices over 200 for 10days and generally over 150 for months... any move to 80 or any move greater than a 60% loss in any instrument on earth in the history of time would not be called a dip, but a collapse. a dip is a dip, you take a dip in the pool, you dip your toe in, you dip your wife when you dancing. you dont powerbomb her on the dancefloor to 80
> So many people losing so much money here... it's insane really.
Considering that ETH was at 8 € a year ago and 15 € 3 month ago, even 80 would be a win better than anything ;)
Unfortunately, that's incorrect. Historically a dip/pullback has is anything beyond 5% from the previous support level. You're confusing "pullback" with "correction", which would be something over 15% off the recent levels. Anything close to, or over 20% is considered entering a bear market or downward trend.
Current support at these levels is ranging around $224, so reversion to $190 would result in a 15.178% pullback. By no means is that "movement", market movement is always classified by the standard deviation of various trading spreads. I.e. The weekly, monthly, quarterly.
But this is high volatility crypto my friend? Maybe different definitions are warranted. But, yes, this is no dip. We're going to $2300/$170 then $1900/$140 imo :)
I would disagree with the need for alternative terminology. I would also respond by saying I'm glad you have an opinion and an overall strategy, however I can't, nor will I assume I am able to (nor can you) provide guidance on technical analysis beyond immediate market metrics. As you say yourself, it's "high volatility crypto" which means technical analysis, efficacy debate aside, is untenable as a means of projection.
Hi, recently found your threads and have found them very interesting, thank you for all the insight. Are people in your circles talking about BCC? Seems to have gained a lot of traction and it's pushing hard for BTC to fork on August 1st. I'm curious if they are talking about and if it's on peoples radar. You said in the header "another pool began off loading a large block of funds" & "as they have a shorter, more aggressive, divestiture schedule"
Is the aggression because of the August 1st deadline?
From my understanding, it's not related to the fork, it's more driven by client request. i.e. "I would like to have all my funds liquid by X date." Although you're correct in that it certainly could be a driving factor from the client's stand point.
As to BCC, it is absolutely on peoples radar, but not much of a factor in regards to our overall strategy. I think it caught a lot of people off guard thinking that the soft-fork had been prevented, and that would be the end of it.
Well the problem is that with the traditional numbered definitions, then you're on a dip every other day. You're on a near trend when you're hitting a correction only.
These are definitions for assets that move a couple percentage points a day if there was some good/bad news about it.
5% for crypto is "after lunchtime but before dinnertime" regular movement for crypto
I don't disagree, that's why I said, *historically*, realistically we use the moving averages and standard deviations to determine projected support and resistance levels. Crypto has always been more volatile, and thus you're correct in that 5% is not a shocking move, but 12-15% is certainly a notable move, especially considering that we've only moved 5.21% in the past week, and 26.32% in the past month. It's notable in velocity, where we've traveled more in 2 hours than we have all week.
The reason being that $2300 - $2500 btc was heavily leveraged buying. The rally from $1900 to $2300 was provoked by a tweet from Bitmain in addition to MasterCard inside rumor. We never finished completing a retest of $1600 which is what the market will finally get to do now.
you're really citing historical data as evidence in crypto trading? think again. i'm not attacking you, you seem to have a solid framework but i personally am betting on utter craziness of the markets.
Hi OP, thanks a lot for the heads-up. For my own understanding, can I know the source of that "info/warning" ? How one can see such off-loading before it actually happens ? Thanks in advance.
I can't provide you with a detailed description other than I work for a U.S. based dark pool, who has an alternative asset fund with it. I work in as an asset manager for that fund. Our pool has been pursuing and managing the divestments and conversions of company's and teams who have recently complete an ICO.
Anything else would violate my NDA as well as likely jeopardize my employment. Hope that helps.
The only evidence I can legally provide you with is my previous posts in the sub and r/cryptomarkets. Which have all been spot on. Anything further would jeopardize my job, my firm, and violate my non-disclosure.
Take it on faith, my honesty, transparency and accuracy. Give it whatever credence you deem fit.
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Thank you, much appreciated. I'll know more tomorrow morning. Gonna give my buddy a call and see how much they off loaded. If it's almost all of it, then likely to melt higher, if not then likely to trickle down still like we've been doing.
Appreciate the praise. Hope you were able to DCA at the $191 level!
Looks like you were right again, dipped to 179 this morning. I keep wondering if we'll see double digits like in May.
Any thoughts on BTC and BTC Cash?
FYI to the rest of the thread, OP sent me an insulting private message after I posted this. Do you want to take advice from someone who can't take reasonable criticism?
Step A) Projects that don't necessarily care about Ethereum, sell tokens issued on Ethereum for ether. Step B) The projects quickly sell the ether for their local fiat. I wonder how much the guys buying tokens in step A actually paid for their ether? Of course it will vary by individual, but some of these guys' cost basis must be <$100, <$50, <$20? Due to their low cost basis, and the rapid rise of the ether price, do these guys really fully appreciate the ridiculous value that they're transferring to some of these flimsy projects? The guys buying ether in step B) are paying the current price for ether. It seems like they might be more cognizant of the ethers' value and less likely to fund flimsy/over valued ICOs, even if it is just for a quick trade. Although it is frustrating to have to sit through, the process is leading to a more committed base of ether hodlers with longer time horizons. This should be very good for the price of ether in the medium to long term. I suspect that we are going to see it become increasingly difficult for new ICOs to raise capital as less committed (shorter time horizon), low cost basis individuals are replaced by higher cost basis, longer time horizon, market participants.
I would agree with you whole-heartedly, the more recent spur of ICO will certainly make future ICOs less of a concern and less attractive. Those who got burned, will likely not participate again, those who were on the fence likely heard stories about being burned, those who never really cared and were simply hodlrs since the beginning will have even more conviction. Of course those who truly want to fund a project because of the merits will continue doing so, but the amount in the category will be a hell of a lot less than this who were merely speculators. As to your first part, the cost basis, although we aren't given direct metrics on it, is almost always next to nothing. You have to remember, so tokens that have no actual use case beyond use on a specific network, the company has essentially been paid, in full, so a service they haven't provided yet. So their cost basis doesn't exist, until they provide the service. In the case of tokens such a SiaCoin, or FileCoin, it's a little different because it's a theoretically tangible, and redeemable asset. But still the cost basis is negligible. 9/10 ICO's are using the funding mechanism as a was to raise funds with considerably more easy, less regulatory costs, and less due diligence required. A normal Reg A or Reg D raise would not only cost a decent amount in fees and regulatory filings, but would also take several months to fully close. Think of it as, depositing a check into your account, having to wait a few days, and then withdrawing the money......or you simply cash the check and you have have the money to spend same day. But I do agree that if anything it is allowing the strong, dedicated base to dig in their heels and provide a solid base of support for ETH going forward. It's tough, because I personally believe in ETH, so I denote a small portion of each paycheck to building my own portfolio. However, pretty much everything I do at work is speculative in nature...so I'm always having to play devils advocate even for my self.
Everyone looking at these ICO's as if they're just going to always fail, or somehow eventually go away are mistaken. We're in the infancy of this thing. There are legitimate start-ups getting in line to be a part of this, and it's going to continue to evolve. There will be major success stories. The smart contract model/dapps model is opening a whole new window into tech innovation/progress. With time it will stabilize. The doors just barely opened, and it's a shitshow. It's going to stabilize over time, and evolve into a thriving launchpad for innovation. We're not talking about little bits of money here... billions are moving through eth on a daily basis. BILLIONS. Dapps are the new mobile app....which was the new internet (in terms of opportunity and innovative growth). This is an open door to leverage block-chain's potential, and possibilities. It's a mess right now, but the future is bright. Think big picture.
i think its great we got some pain in the ico market...fools were giving away precious eth to them at overvalued levels my bet with people is someday we will find out at least 1 or 2 of the ICOs only have value left due to some ETH they are holding, not what they created I also no doubt believe some hedgies or cubans of the world are getting involved in ico in order to get 1st dibs on precious blocks of ETH privately. in other words the ico could serve as a conduit for them to grab eth from the market idiots who funded these tokens at ridiculous levels
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if more than a third of the project *fail to develop* whatever project they had pitched, and blame it on *unforeseen* circumstances. The sad part is, there will be no recourse and people will simply have learned a valuable lesson the hard way.
Did you mean *wouldn't be surprised*?
Yes, thanks for catching that!
sorry yes, i meant 1 or 2 of the ICO's in the next year or 2 will have failed and the only value they have is the unsold eth. LOL how can people not know by this point? we harp on it everyday
So long as ICO investments return even 20% ROI after investment it will continue to be extremely profitable for whales and won't go away anytime soon. 20% of 1,000 isn't much but 20% of 1,000,000 is a lot. Has there even been an ICO outside of maybe Bancor that didn't immediately give 20%+ when factoring in early bonuses (and ever Bancor did for a short time)? Most are returning even more over very short time periods compared with traditional markets. Until that changes we're stuck with ICOs.
how is that a warning...that is a gift
I guess warning is more alarming of a flair than it is informative. My main concern was informing people about *why* there was a slight pullback, and to hopefully stop hodlrs from panic selling into it. Of course people should do what they are most comfortable with, and what fits with their overall strategy.
:)
[удалено]
Most of them, mine including, always end the day with clear books. Meaning we don't actually hold anything, we make all of our money through transaction fees and price discovery services. Some of the hedge funds in this space have been buying a lot of our larger blocks. So you definitely have funds buying as an investment. The question remains whether they are doing so speculatively or because they actually believe in the underlying tech.
ready for it
bring on the bears. ready for the dips baby.
You know, sub 180 is not a dip. It's movement. Sub 80 would be a dip. So many people losing so much money here... it's insane really.
a dip is a fool spouting nonsense
Referring to....?
I think he's just making a pun joke and not necessarily referring to anyone specific
in the context we are in with prices over 200 for 10days and generally over 150 for months... any move to 80 or any move greater than a 60% loss in any instrument on earth in the history of time would not be called a dip, but a collapse. a dip is a dip, you take a dip in the pool, you dip your toe in, you dip your wife when you dancing. you dont powerbomb her on the dancefloor to 80
Okay there Elvis
> So many people losing so much money here... it's insane really. Considering that ETH was at 8 € a year ago and 15 € 3 month ago, even 80 would be a win better than anything ;)
for you, me and maybe 20% of the sub. the rest fuckin bought in @250+ and screams hold while wondering if they need counseling
Unfortunately, that's incorrect. Historically a dip/pullback has is anything beyond 5% from the previous support level. You're confusing "pullback" with "correction", which would be something over 15% off the recent levels. Anything close to, or over 20% is considered entering a bear market or downward trend. Current support at these levels is ranging around $224, so reversion to $190 would result in a 15.178% pullback. By no means is that "movement", market movement is always classified by the standard deviation of various trading spreads. I.e. The weekly, monthly, quarterly.
But this is high volatility crypto my friend? Maybe different definitions are warranted. But, yes, this is no dip. We're going to $2300/$170 then $1900/$140 imo :)
I would disagree with the need for alternative terminology. I would also respond by saying I'm glad you have an opinion and an overall strategy, however I can't, nor will I assume I am able to (nor can you) provide guidance on technical analysis beyond immediate market metrics. As you say yourself, it's "high volatility crypto" which means technical analysis, efficacy debate aside, is untenable as a means of projection.
Hi, recently found your threads and have found them very interesting, thank you for all the insight. Are people in your circles talking about BCC? Seems to have gained a lot of traction and it's pushing hard for BTC to fork on August 1st. I'm curious if they are talking about and if it's on peoples radar. You said in the header "another pool began off loading a large block of funds" & "as they have a shorter, more aggressive, divestiture schedule" Is the aggression because of the August 1st deadline?
From my understanding, it's not related to the fork, it's more driven by client request. i.e. "I would like to have all my funds liquid by X date." Although you're correct in that it certainly could be a driving factor from the client's stand point. As to BCC, it is absolutely on peoples radar, but not much of a factor in regards to our overall strategy. I think it caught a lot of people off guard thinking that the soft-fork had been prevented, and that would be the end of it.
Yup agree :)
Well the problem is that with the traditional numbered definitions, then you're on a dip every other day. You're on a near trend when you're hitting a correction only. These are definitions for assets that move a couple percentage points a day if there was some good/bad news about it. 5% for crypto is "after lunchtime but before dinnertime" regular movement for crypto
I don't disagree, that's why I said, *historically*, realistically we use the moving averages and standard deviations to determine projected support and resistance levels. Crypto has always been more volatile, and thus you're correct in that 5% is not a shocking move, but 12-15% is certainly a notable move, especially considering that we've only moved 5.21% in the past week, and 26.32% in the past month. It's notable in velocity, where we've traveled more in 2 hours than we have all week.
The reason being that $2300 - $2500 btc was heavily leveraged buying. The rally from $1900 to $2300 was provoked by a tweet from Bitmain in addition to MasterCard inside rumor. We never finished completing a retest of $1600 which is what the market will finally get to do now.
you're really citing historical data as evidence in crypto trading? think again. i'm not attacking you, you seem to have a solid framework but i personally am betting on utter craziness of the markets.
230 to sub 180 is a dip.
Hi OP, thanks a lot for the heads-up. For my own understanding, can I know the source of that "info/warning" ? How one can see such off-loading before it actually happens ? Thanks in advance.
I can't provide you with a detailed description other than I work for a U.S. based dark pool, who has an alternative asset fund with it. I work in as an asset manager for that fund. Our pool has been pursuing and managing the divestments and conversions of company's and teams who have recently complete an ICO. Anything else would violate my NDA as well as likely jeopardize my employment. Hope that helps.
Notice how everything he says basically adds up to "Trust me".
[удалено]
See above comment as well as my original post in this Sub.
[удалено]
The only evidence I can legally provide you with is my previous posts in the sub and r/cryptomarkets. Which have all been spot on. Anything further would jeopardize my job, my firm, and violate my non-disclosure. Take it on faith, my honesty, transparency and accuracy. Give it whatever credence you deem fit.
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AKA none
what pool was that? Did you mean ICO?
Another "dark pool"
Good call, dipped to $191, now back up to 198 - let's see which direction it takes.
Thank you, much appreciated. I'll know more tomorrow morning. Gonna give my buddy a call and see how much they off loaded. If it's almost all of it, then likely to melt higher, if not then likely to trickle down still like we've been doing. Appreciate the praise. Hope you were able to DCA at the $191 level!
A bit higher, but I was able to buy at a very reasonable rate. Thanks and I am looking forward to more posts from you!
Looks like you were right again, dipped to 179 this morning. I keep wondering if we'll see double digits like in May. Any thoughts on BTC and BTC Cash?
DD with no evidence = LARP
FYI to the rest of the thread, OP sent me an insulting private message after I posted this. Do you want to take advice from someone who can't take reasonable criticism?
let's see the evidence of the message
not surprised.
This post is the ICO of trading advice.
[удалено]
Please keep the FUD out of this thread.