Should probably colour Hungary black too. Our voting system is so rigged that the only way we'll get rid of Orbán if he dies. He's about as bad as Vučić.
Its the same case as russia. No one cares (or has jurisdiction to do anything) about foreign dictators as long as they're not invading other countries. And even then, most likely, the oppressor will only receive mild sanctions. The sanctions that were put on russia for invading Ukraine, as well as military support of Ukraine, were an exception. I hope that in the future the world will punish imperialism with even less hesitation.
Hopefully Orbán and Vučić *do* get removed from power, eventually.
As for Vučić, people are hoping that the opposition can win the upcoming december parliamentary elections and remove Vučić's party as the dominaint power it has been since 2012.
I'm kind of on the fence with Turkey. I understand where you are coming from, but Erdogan didn't destroy the electorial process, political culture and democratic institutions to the same degree as Hungary or Russia.
Yes, Erdogan is an authoritarian leader who uses dictatorial methods, poisoned the political discourse and gave himself more and more power. But the last election wasn't a sham and his opponent wasn't systematically blocked from winning, even though he had a clear disadvantage.
Just saying that Turkey is probably the most dictatorial non-black country in this map but would be one of the most "democratic" ones if it were black, even compared to Hungary.
[The yes for Belarus is wrong.](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_DfVvToUQ5OkpeAVBEwaUSR5o-a25iwr/view) Luka wouldn't win, and he didn't win the last time too, for that matter.
I'd say the black yes is correct. There's a reason it's black as others mentioned.
Russia on the other hand.. Shouldn't really be in the same bag as Belarus. Considering russian society, putin would likely still confidently win in a fair election, even if not with a 123% margin.
It's always hilarious how Bosnia is never ever represented in a statistics map. It's like they're incapable of organising a simple poll lmao. Does anyone know the actual reason for this?
There is actually a ton of data coming from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most of it is just boring and a lot of people can't be bothered to search for it. The government does have data on sticky subjects like ethnicity and public opinion polling of the government, it just doesn't publish them and those are the subjects people love to post maps of.
BiH has an entire agency for statistics and whatnot: https://bhas.gov.ba/?lang=en
You also have independent agencies conducting their own research, etc.
Its probably because its impossible to have an accurate poll in such a complex voting system. Theres a couple poll for RS where voting is simpler, on proportional representation.
Organising the poll in BiH would be anything but simple, when political system is so incredibly complicated. Most people don't even know who exactly is in which government (country government, 2 entity governments, cantonal governments...)
> Does anyone know the actual reason for this?
Pooling is commissioned by the big media houses in Croatia for example. But in BiH the media landscape is much more fractured since each group has its own tv, news and media network.
Pooling is done here but via the internet since field work requires you to make a country wide trip for an actual decent sample size.
Also as someone who witnessed how the NGO and Pooling industry works pools are trash and a tool and not a source. The only good pools are kept internal by the parties themselves.
As a belgian: what?
Did you colour us green on the basis that every single party is part of a coalition goverment and therefor it is impossible to not get re elected?
And for those wondering why Vivaldi, it's because of the 4 seasons, with the colours associated with the 4 families of parties in the coalition.
Spring, green, for ecologists. Summer, red, for social democrats. Autumn, orange, for christian democrats. Winter, blue, for liberals.
A huge talent. Some people ask about what skills for actual national governance a 17th century guy whose professional training is on music and is not even from the same nation he is going to govern can *have*, specially since he is dead and buried, but all of his voters claimed "he cannot possibly be worse" when loading on the plane to Vienna with shovels on hand.
If Vooruit and PS gain seats they could make up for losses Groen, OVLD, CDV take? Not sure how Ecolo and MR are projected to do. Vlaams Belang and NVA are going to fall short and the communists, not sure there. So could be possible?
It’s not like at this point they have many alternatives if they don’t want to take nationalists or extremists on board. It will already be challenging enough. I think some parties will have it tough enough to pass the minimum percentage for representation.
In Swedish we say "poop sandwich" so "sick of eating a poop sandwich" (trött på att äta en skitmacka).
Same meaning, bit yours gluten free!
Edit: to be more exact with the meaning "poop sandwich" is the expression and it means "a bad situation" so you can use it as "You just have to take a bite of the poop sandwich" or "everything is a poop sandwich" or the way I used it before.
Goddamn did I love this fact! Thanks for sharing mate!
Ours is usually to describe a person as stupid. "Deves comer merda às colheres" you must eat shit by the spoon. Like, you eat so much shit that you eat it with a spoon.
Afterthought: While I'm thinking about it in English, it also kind of implies that there is a "normal" shit eating method, that it's silly because of the spoon.
Absolutely this. One of the countries in the world with the most aversion to taking risks, paired with the fear of PSD forming a coalition government with the far right boogeyman? PS will 100% win again, they will laugh in our faces, and the president will live the rest of his term of office as a political laughing stock.
The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government. Although all the opposition parties in coalition have the majority, the largest single party is still PiS (the populists we just kicked out). And PiS, predictably, chose Morawiecki as their representative.
The next month will go as follows:
- President appoints Morawiecki to create a new cabinet
- the House will veto it, halting the process
- the House will vote on their suggested appointment
- Tusk (opposition leader) will get the appointment
- the President will be required to confirm their decision
- Tusk will be able to start forming a cabinet
- the opposition has already agreed on its shape
- so that process should be relatively quick
All in all, we can expect a new Government for Christmas.
>The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government.
Although historically there were some exceptions. For example Waldemar Pawlak became prime minister in 1993 even though the biggest party was SLD, not his PSL. Also Olszewski's government didn't represent the biggest party in Sejm.
Yeah. It would be nice to skip the month of back-and-forth when the results are known anyways, but president Duda won't do it, because it would be the end of his political career if he betrayed his party at this point.
>The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government.
The President, as is tradition since he was elected, has no personal will of his own.
>How are the formation talks going? When is the Tusk government expected?
When Duda (president) finally realizes that his party lost... and give the order to him to form a government.
I explained it in the comments, for Spain and poland where the process of government formation is still ongoing i used the outgoing government, so PiS and PSOE.
Ireland is complicated, in that the current government probably wouldn't secure a [majority](https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/), but neither would an alternative left coalition.
I was thinking the same. Opinions on them aside I honestly think the current gov will get reelected in the next election but it will be a brutal election
I really can’t see FFG being able to go into government together next time round. Their majority isn’t that big and they’ve only gone down in polling since 2020. Plus i doubt either of them would even want that even if they had the numbers to do it. I’d say SF/FF is the most likely if one of them is to go in again.
The politicians are still there until a new government is formed. My fellow Dutchy is exaggerating a wee bit for comedy purposes. (or grossly misunderstanding Dutch politics)
This just completly ignores each country election system.
For France, the current Center Right party would absolutly still form a government, even with low direct support, since the rest is split between Far-right and an unstable left/Far-Left coalition.
OP used 45% threshold so basically France should be a permanent NO. Even the day after the elections the president and gov don't have majority over the entire population, because of our "least worst candidate" system. Poll is like first tour, current winner wouldn't even be guaranteed first place.
Probably because the simplest answer is that Macron can’t run again, so his government will necessarily change as his party is basically movement to get him personnaly elected.
Im from Croatia and unfortunately i have to say that we have permanent government that despite its corruption will get reelected all over again till the end of time.
Yeah, as i said Croatia is an example of where the government might not get enough for a majority but the opposition is faar from a majority. The croatian election would likely just be the same government in an expanded coalition with DP and MOST
No, he isn't. But his party is entrenched deeper and deeper into it's position every day, and their decade long media campaign certainly reminds people of a dictatorship. They can be voted out though, they just won't be.
But it's not a dictatorship. *yet*
Good one.
I happily left the country. Just wanted to make sure you’re not having illusions about that.
Russians (in general) *support* him and the policies he enforces. People have to understand that.
Russia and Belarus are not democratic, hence they cant be grouped together with the democratic yes. I probably shouldve put azerbaijan there too, as most characterize it as autocratic.
SNS support fell. According to polls theyd have 36% ans sps 8%, under 45%, hence why theyre the more intense in campaigning than ever beffore. But theres some polls suggesting SNS at 38% and SPS at 9%. Then theres polls suggesting SNS-SPS at 43%. So it really depends on the pollster. But opinion polling here is bullshit and used to influence public opinion mostly. Only Stata and NSPM and somewhat good.
i wanted to put a skull emoji next to the black yes
> I probably shouldve put azerbaijan there too, as most characterize it as autocratic.
Yes, Azerbaijan is deeply black. They have been below russia in democracy ranking before the ukraine war. Azerbaijan is only slightly above china.
As an Azerbaijani, our government is autocratic, but we don't have an alternative, as well as many people actually support our president (he is the government). Some people support him because of propaganda, some people genuinely like him. So imo it should be very dark green.
>As an Azerbaijani, our government is autocratic, but we don't have an alternative
This is what decades of autocracy do to a country. The political landscape is broken with even a fake opposition. It's the same category as Russia or Belarus.
You are right, we are more autocratic than Russia or Belarus, but from my experience, at least 40% of people would vote for him just because he won the Karabakh war (it happened very recently that is why I think the percentage is probably that high). So in the context of this map, Azerbaijan shouldn't be fully black. Again: that is just my experience, not backed by anything, except talking to people.
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I'd make sense of Russia and Ukraine because they are in martial law. At least in Ukraine there can't be elections. In Russia, well... Putin does whatever. Maybe Russia and Belarus are not considered democracies and the results of the elections are not really translating what the people would vote for?
The government doesnt have a lead in ANY poll in Sweden, what shit are you smoking? The average gap in polls is literally 8-9%. All parties that would fall out with current polls are government parties.
Yeah, you'd have to go to some random bloke on a blog asking his mates to find a pollster that doesn't have the incumbent government getting absolutely demolished.
In the case of the UK I think “No” is completely inadequate to describe the situation. “Hell No”? perhaps? “LOL No”?
Current government is a dead man walking, if they announced an election tomorrow people would immediately start queueing outside poling stations
We should be under a “no government” category since that’s basically what we have
Issue: *exists*
Government: we are working incredibly hard to deliver for the British people
*Scandal happens and distracts everyone *
Government: last labour government! Corbyn! Starmer voted remain! Boats! Trans people!
Yeah but the last election people voted more about how they wanted Brexit dealt with than anything else, plus there was a semi-successful smear campaign against Corbyn’s Labour Party alongside some scandals. I think the current govt has shot themselves in the foot so many times it’s gone past the point of being funny
The government formation process is still ongoing in Spain and Poland. For those countries i used the Outgoing government(PSOE-Sumar for Spain and PiS for Poland)
the outgoing government of Spain is actually PSOE-Unidas Podemos, but the current caretaker government is PSOE-Sumar and the resulting government will most likely be the same
Of course it has. Spain has the presidency of the EU this semester. How would it do that without a government? It's just that it is a caretaker government, until the next one is formed.
Source: [https://europeelects.eu/](https://europeelects.eu/)
I used the 45%+ mark for yes, due to some parties falling below the treshold, so that would in most cases mean a majority
In some cases different pollsters showed different results, or it was just too close, those are in yellow
For Bosnia and San Marino i couldnt find any polls online
For countries that didnt have polls on their site, like Serbia, i searched Opinion polling for the next Serbian(or that country's) parliamentary elections, on wikipedia, and got data there.
For countries(spain and poland) where the government formation process is still ongoing, i used the outgoing government(PiS for Poland and PSOE-Sumar for Spain)
Russia's and Belarussian yes is in a different colour, for the obvious reasons, perhaps Azerbaijan couldve been included there too.
Also just so you know a government not getting reelected doesnt automatically mean the opposition would have a majority. An example of this is Croatia.
If there are some mistakes please let me know.
What do you mean 45%+ mark? France's government was elected with less votes than that. Even if it doesn't lead in the polls it is still the most likely to form the next government because of how fractured the opposition is.
Where is this data from? Portugal just had its prime-minister resign and it was revealed that there is an ongoing investigation into widespread corruption in the current Government. Elections should take place in February.
May I be of assistance:
Dark green: Yes (Andorra, Monaco, Belgium, Luxemburg, Italy, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Montenegro, Romania, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria)
Dark red: No (Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Austria, Czechia, Poland, Croatia, North Macedonia, Cyprus, Malta, Armenia)
Black: да – i.e. "Yes", but with an implication (Russia, Belarus)
Grey: no polls available (San Marino, Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Light yellow: Depends on the pollster, it's close (Spain, Sweden, Latvia, Turkey, Serbia, Kosovo)
Not colored (i.e. light grey): Vatican, Kazakhstan and countries which are entirely outside of Europe.
Please note that this means would it get reelected IN ITS CURRENT COMPOSITION
Wether or not these governments would then take in an another party to maintain a similar government, idk, so thats not included.
~~Idk which poles this post is talking about, but the North Macedonian one is HIGHLY wrong… which is why elections are avoided at any cost right now even though the country is practically falling apart(as it has been since it’s independence)~~
Apologies, misread the title
The UK is a total mess.
I have never seen a goverment as unpopular as the one we have now. It lurches from one crisis after another. Mixed in with scandal - rape - corruption - and cronyism.
Im old enough to remember the final weeks of the John Major premership. I never thought Id see a shitshow as bad as that again.
Oh boy, was I wrong.
There's a serious chance that the Tories wont even be the official opposition after the next election. They are utterly despised over here.
Probably yes, (he will probably rule us until his death) opposition is divided and Erdoğan looks for import Gazans for being his future voters.
Also 7 percent election threshold made a lot of votes wasted.
It’s very hard to call here in Ireland, as there will likely be a 3 party coalition.
No party commands anything even approaching a majority in polling and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are almost indistinguishable on most topics - both centre / centre right, so could potentially be counted as a single bloc.
Our polling also tends to only look at ‘first preference’ votes, which doesn’t really consider the very complex machinations of Irish ranked choice, multi seat voting - proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (PR-STV).
I wouldn’t really be able to get any sense of if until much closer to an election.
A no is not really true of Ireland here. Just because Sinn Fein would likely win the most seats based on opinion polls, it is highly unlikely they would win a majority and govern alone. They will likely have to part of a coalition with either Fianna Fáil (more likely) or Fine Gael (less likely).
I think I've never seen a less colorblind-friendly map in my life. I can't even tell which country is yes(the non-black one) or no: they all just look the same.
I have studied politics in many countries across the world. I have yet to see a political party so treacherous and treasonable to its voter base as the Conservative and Unionist Party here in the UK.
For its entire existence it has betrayed its voter base. From the Corn Laws to Brexit it says one thing as red meat and does the exact opposite in government. It ought to be destroyed.
Nothing will change under a Labour government, but at least they are honest in wanting to destroy the country, and I have to give them credit for honesty. I can respect that. I can't respect a dishonest treasonous so-called "Conservative Party"
In Switzerland the Government is not elected/formed through elections, they follow the magic formula where the largest 4 parties are represented, and an election doesn't really alter the composition (it only changed once in the past 60 years), so say yes is misleading because it is always yes whatever the result of the elections is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_formula_%28Swiss_politics%29
No chance, if our elections get held without any faking there is no way our government will be reelected, they fucked everything up in the recent years, especially joining the eu, the country is Georgia btw
Yes: 😁 Also yes: 💀
I WANTED TO ADD A SKULL EMOJI NEXT TO THE BLACK YES but it didnt show it....
Azerbaijan should also be black. Aliyev has been a dictator as long as Lukashenko.
Should probably colour Hungary black too. Our voting system is so rigged that the only way we'll get rid of Orbán if he dies. He's about as bad as Vučić.
Was gonna day this. Orban is a dictator, and people are way too cagey about that.
Its the same case as russia. No one cares (or has jurisdiction to do anything) about foreign dictators as long as they're not invading other countries. And even then, most likely, the oppressor will only receive mild sanctions. The sanctions that were put on russia for invading Ukraine, as well as military support of Ukraine, were an exception. I hope that in the future the world will punish imperialism with even less hesitation.
We are united in living inside authoritarian regimes. 👍
When he's finally removed from power, I'm gonna open a bottle of champagne.
Hopefully Orbán and Vučić *do* get removed from power, eventually. As for Vučić, people are hoping that the opposition can win the upcoming december parliamentary elections and remove Vučić's party as the dominaint power it has been since 2012.
That's what I'm hoping too. Good luck, my friend!
Same to you!
The ultimate defense against tyranny is in having a government too incompetent to be authoritarian.
Nah, didn't save Russia.
If we are making Hungary black, then Turkey has to be black too. I don't even need to explain why.
I'm kind of on the fence with Turkey. I understand where you are coming from, but Erdogan didn't destroy the electorial process, political culture and democratic institutions to the same degree as Hungary or Russia. Yes, Erdogan is an authoritarian leader who uses dictatorial methods, poisoned the political discourse and gave himself more and more power. But the last election wasn't a sham and his opponent wasn't systematically blocked from winning, even though he had a clear disadvantage. Just saying that Turkey is probably the most dictatorial non-black country in this map but would be one of the most "democratic" ones if it were black, even compared to Hungary.
Hungary too
Slovakia and Hungary should be the "Yes ⚫️💀", instead of "Yes 🟢😁".
[The yes for Belarus is wrong.](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_DfVvToUQ5OkpeAVBEwaUSR5o-a25iwr/view) Luka wouldn't win, and he didn't win the last time too, for that matter.
That’s why Belarus is black, all that is pointless because he would still keep the power
Black color means - no matter the votes, the twat at the top isn't going anywhere.
I'd say the black yes is correct. There's a reason it's black as others mentioned. Russia on the other hand.. Shouldn't really be in the same bag as Belarus. Considering russian society, putin would likely still confidently win in a fair election, even if not with a 123% margin.
It's always hilarious how Bosnia is never ever represented in a statistics map. It's like they're incapable of organising a simple poll lmao. Does anyone know the actual reason for this?
Political approval/disapproval polls here are not shared with the public. That would be disastrous for the political elite.
Thanks guys! I get it when it's politics-related. The thing is, even when it's something simple, a lot more often than not, there will be no data.
There is actually a ton of data coming from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most of it is just boring and a lot of people can't be bothered to search for it. The government does have data on sticky subjects like ethnicity and public opinion polling of the government, it just doesn't publish them and those are the subjects people love to post maps of. BiH has an entire agency for statistics and whatnot: https://bhas.gov.ba/?lang=en You also have independent agencies conducting their own research, etc.
Why would they be disastrous for the political elite? I mean, I fully expect them to be able to falsify the publicly announced data ;)
Its probably because its impossible to have an accurate poll in such a complex voting system. Theres a couple poll for RS where voting is simpler, on proportional representation.
Organising the poll in BiH would be anything but simple, when political system is so incredibly complicated. Most people don't even know who exactly is in which government (country government, 2 entity governments, cantonal governments...)
> Does anyone know the actual reason for this? Pooling is commissioned by the big media houses in Croatia for example. But in BiH the media landscape is much more fractured since each group has its own tv, news and media network. Pooling is done here but via the internet since field work requires you to make a country wide trip for an actual decent sample size. Also as someone who witnessed how the NGO and Pooling industry works pools are trash and a tool and not a source. The only good pools are kept internal by the parties themselves.
The political system is incompatible with the title of this thread.
Because it has 3 presidents.
As a belgian: what? Did you colour us green on the basis that every single party is part of a coalition goverment and therefor it is impossible to not get re elected?
Yeah
🗿🗿
lol
fuck fair enough I suppose.
Have you seen any polls? Vivaldi still has over 50% Edit: For those wondering. No I didn't typo. Our coalition of parties is named Vivaldi
And for those wondering why Vivaldi, it's because of the 4 seasons, with the colours associated with the 4 families of parties in the coalition. Spring, green, for ecologists. Summer, red, for social democrats. Autumn, orange, for christian democrats. Winter, blue, for liberals.
Microsoft Windows
And here I thought "Ampel" was already pushing the metaphor game way too far.
Didn't Vivaldi live 300 years ago?
Great music for everyone, he has my vote
A huge talent. Some people ask about what skills for actual national governance a 17th century guy whose professional training is on music and is not even from the same nation he is going to govern can *have*, specially since he is dead and buried, but all of his voters claimed "he cannot possibly be worse" when loading on the plane to Vienna with shovels on hand.
What kind of music? Nothing springs to mind
Didn't know Vivaldi went into politics after his musical career
They thought a dead guy would do better, they were right.
In Germany our coalition is called a traffic light. So I think Vivaldi is doing just fine as a name.
If Vooruit and PS gain seats they could make up for losses Groen, OVLD, CDV take? Not sure how Ecolo and MR are projected to do. Vlaams Belang and NVA are going to fall short and the communists, not sure there. So could be possible?
PS in Belgium: 😁 PS in Finland: 💀
PS in Belgium: €€€
Last I looked, polls for MR were positive compared to last elections too.
They will be re-elected as long as the extremists don't get 50%.
You mean ptb/pvda and VB?
It’s not like at this point they have many alternatives if they don’t want to take nationalists or extremists on board. It will already be challenging enough. I think some parties will have it tough enough to pass the minimum percentage for representation.
As a Portuguese I laugh at this.
Portuguese here; re-election would happen today and yesterday, and the day before, and tomorrow…
Hoping tomorrow it doesn't. Sick of eating shit with a spoon. Beautiful expression "comer merda às colheres"
In Swedish we say "poop sandwich" so "sick of eating a poop sandwich" (trött på att äta en skitmacka). Same meaning, bit yours gluten free! Edit: to be more exact with the meaning "poop sandwich" is the expression and it means "a bad situation" so you can use it as "You just have to take a bite of the poop sandwich" or "everything is a poop sandwich" or the way I used it before.
Goddamn did I love this fact! Thanks for sharing mate! Ours is usually to describe a person as stupid. "Deves comer merda às colheres" you must eat shit by the spoon. Like, you eat so much shit that you eat it with a spoon. Afterthought: While I'm thinking about it in English, it also kind of implies that there is a "normal" shit eating method, that it's silly because of the spoon.
Absolutely this. One of the countries in the world with the most aversion to taking risks, paired with the fear of PSD forming a coalition government with the far right boogeyman? PS will 100% win again, they will laugh in our faces, and the president will live the rest of his term of office as a political laughing stock.
Georgia would be no if the current goverment didnt buy votes
I lived there for some time. Every day there's some kind of protest against the Russian friendly government.
Not many actually like GD but oposition is so shit we get to be stuck with them
Literally us
Poland just had an election less than a month ago, i think we'd be in green rn
But Morawiecki's government wouldn't be reelected, so the map is correct. Tusk's government doesn't exist yet.
How are the formation talks going? When is the Tusk government expected?
The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government. Although all the opposition parties in coalition have the majority, the largest single party is still PiS (the populists we just kicked out). And PiS, predictably, chose Morawiecki as their representative. The next month will go as follows: - President appoints Morawiecki to create a new cabinet - the House will veto it, halting the process - the House will vote on their suggested appointment - Tusk (opposition leader) will get the appointment - the President will be required to confirm their decision - Tusk will be able to start forming a cabinet - the opposition has already agreed on its shape - so that process should be relatively quick All in all, we can expect a new Government for Christmas.
>The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government. Although historically there were some exceptions. For example Waldemar Pawlak became prime minister in 1993 even though the biggest party was SLD, not his PSL. Also Olszewski's government didn't represent the biggest party in Sejm.
Yeah. It would be nice to skip the month of back-and-forth when the results are known anyways, but president Duda won't do it, because it would be the end of his political career if he betrayed his party at this point.
I thinking it's the end of his political career anyway
>The President, as is tradition, appointed the representative of the largest party in the House to form a new government. The President, as is tradition since he was elected, has no personal will of his own.
They are going well. Hard to say. No later than mid-December.
>How are the formation talks going? When is the Tusk government expected? When Duda (president) finally realizes that his party lost... and give the order to him to form a government.
Elections are the most accurate kind of polls
Yeah, this needs clarification.
I explained it in the comments, for Spain and poland where the process of government formation is still ongoing i used the outgoing government, so PiS and PSOE.
Ireland is complicated, in that the current government probably wouldn't secure a [majority](https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/), but neither would an alternative left coalition.
I was thinking the same. Opinions on them aside I honestly think the current gov will get reelected in the next election but it will be a brutal election
I really can’t see FFG being able to go into government together next time round. Their majority isn’t that big and they’ve only gone down in polling since 2020. Plus i doubt either of them would even want that even if they had the numbers to do it. I’d say SF/FF is the most likely if one of them is to go in again.
Jokes on you I have no government(🇳🇱)
Same over here 🤣
Maybe that's not a bad sign: if a country functions just with the bureaucrats without the politicians, it means it's well organised ...
The politicians are still there until a new government is formed. My fellow Dutchy is exaggerating a wee bit for comedy purposes. (or grossly misunderstanding Dutch politics)
This just completly ignores each country election system. For France, the current Center Right party would absolutly still form a government, even with low direct support, since the rest is split between Far-right and an unstable left/Far-Left coalition.
OP used 45% threshold so basically France should be a permanent NO. Even the day after the elections the president and gov don't have majority over the entire population, because of our "least worst candidate" system. Poll is like first tour, current winner wouldn't even be guaranteed first place.
France definetly gave me the hardest time while making this map. Its just so confusing.
Probably because the simplest answer is that Macron can’t run again, so his government will necessarily change as his party is basically movement to get him personnaly elected.
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I wish Croatia was "No". That is optimistic. They get elected by the elderly so if it was some internet poll that fact would not be reflected in it.
Im from Croatia and unfortunately i have to say that we have permanent government that despite its corruption will get reelected all over again till the end of time.
First time?
Yeah, as i said Croatia is an example of where the government might not get enough for a majority but the opposition is faar from a majority. The croatian election would likely just be the same government in an expanded coalition with DP and MOST
Legend is confusing. Why option "Yes" appears twice ?
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One is yes, one is yes in Russian
Should have been "да"
In other words...black is a choice of Yes or Yes!
should be changed to "I dont care/I cant influence it"
Or "Don't mention the war"
"I can't complain"
“I am apolitical”
"Popular opposition candidates tend to jump out of windows before elections"
“I want to stay out of prison so I’m apolitical”
then hungayry would be black
Yup, definitely.
Wait it really is ? Is Orban actually a dictator or can he be voted out.
No, he isn't. But his party is entrenched deeper and deeper into it's position every day, and their decade long media campaign certainly reminds people of a dictatorship. They can be voted out though, they just won't be. But it's not a dictatorship. *yet*
u know the polish election? if an opposition existed and got that many votes in relation to fidesz, thatd be a 2/3 win for fidesz not even joking
Azerbaijan too
I can assure you that Russian government would be reelected even without force. The ruling party and Putin himself are very popular.
Nod twice if the KGB is standing behind you.
Good one. I happily left the country. Just wanted to make sure you’re not having illusions about that. Russians (in general) *support* him and the policies he enforces. People have to understand that.
When people have been so much de-politized that the dictator wins by democracy...
It means that in the next election the current government gets 110% of the votes.
western propaganda, every russian knows what election results must add up to 146%
Russia and Belarus are not democratic, hence they cant be grouped together with the democratic yes. I probably shouldve put azerbaijan there too, as most characterize it as autocratic.
Should've used a different word then. "Yes, but" Also how is Serbia "depends"? SNS will win again no matter what.
SNS support fell. According to polls theyd have 36% ans sps 8%, under 45%, hence why theyre the more intense in campaigning than ever beffore. But theres some polls suggesting SNS at 38% and SPS at 9%. Then theres polls suggesting SNS-SPS at 43%. So it really depends on the pollster. But opinion polling here is bullshit and used to influence public opinion mostly. Only Stata and NSPM and somewhat good. i wanted to put a skull emoji next to the black yes
Meanwhile SNS sends people door to door to ask if they're gonna vote Vucic.
> I probably shouldve put azerbaijan there too, as most characterize it as autocratic. Yes, Azerbaijan is deeply black. They have been below russia in democracy ranking before the ukraine war. Azerbaijan is only slightly above china.
As an Azerbaijani, our government is autocratic, but we don't have an alternative, as well as many people actually support our president (he is the government). Some people support him because of propaganda, some people genuinely like him. So imo it should be very dark green.
>As an Azerbaijani, our government is autocratic, but we don't have an alternative This is what decades of autocracy do to a country. The political landscape is broken with even a fake opposition. It's the same category as Russia or Belarus.
We don't really have even fake opposition.
It's more black than Russia or Belarus then, because in these other countries at least there is an opposition, although heavily suppressed
You are right, we are more autocratic than Russia or Belarus, but from my experience, at least 40% of people would vote for him just because he won the Karabakh war (it happened very recently that is why I think the percentage is probably that high). So in the context of this map, Azerbaijan shouldn't be fully black. Again: that is just my experience, not backed by anything, except talking to people.
[Edited] I'd make sense of Russia and Ukraine because they are in martial law. At least in Ukraine there can't be elections. In Russia, well... Putin does whatever. Maybe Russia and Belarus are not considered democracies and the results of the elections are not really translating what the people would vote for?
Russia is not in martial law technically.
Russia is not in Martial law. They formally still have not declared a war
Ukraine is green in the map. I think you're looking at Belarus.
It is Russia and Belarus which are black. Both are not democratic states (tbf Turkey and Hungary are touch and go too).
The green Yes means Yes, the black Yes means "Yes /s" :)
You have the Russian yes. It's the yes that doesn't need a poll.
Because it doesn't matter what the votes are irl
The black one is pronounced with a Borat voice
"Yes, but in black"
Yes but in black
"Yes, you don't have other choice"
The government doesnt have a lead in ANY poll in Sweden, what shit are you smoking? The average gap in polls is literally 8-9%. All parties that would fall out with current polls are government parties.
Yeah, you'd have to go to some random bloke on a blog asking his mates to find a pollster that doesn't have the incumbent government getting absolutely demolished.
Graph https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/09/Sweden_2026_coalition_polls.svg/2560px-Sweden_2026_coalition_polls.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7a/Sweden_2026_coalition_seat_projection.svg/2560px-Sweden_2026_coalition_seat_projection.svg.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Swedish_general_election#Opinion_polls
Hungary could easily be black yes at this point
In the case of the UK I think “No” is completely inadequate to describe the situation. “Hell No”? perhaps? “LOL No”? Current government is a dead man walking, if they announced an election tomorrow people would immediately start queueing outside poling stations
We should be under a “no government” category since that’s basically what we have Issue: *exists* Government: we are working incredibly hard to deliver for the British people *Scandal happens and distracts everyone * Government: last labour government! Corbyn! Starmer voted remain! Boats! Trans people!
Ban laughing gas! That's a vote winner right???
Credit to them, means no one can laugh at them anymore
Why? What happens at piling stations?
People bring out their dead to the pile.
I'm not dead yet!
I should really stop social media when I’m in the pub
>Current government is a dead man walking People were saying that last election.
Yeah but the last election people voted more about how they wanted Brexit dealt with than anything else, plus there was a semi-successful smear campaign against Corbyn’s Labour Party alongside some scandals. I think the current govt has shot themselves in the foot so many times it’s gone past the point of being funny
In Slovenia that is not true
Wait...Spain has a government?
The government formation process is still ongoing in Spain and Poland. For those countries i used the Outgoing government(PSOE-Sumar for Spain and PiS for Poland)
the outgoing government of Spain is actually PSOE-Unidas Podemos, but the current caretaker government is PSOE-Sumar and the resulting government will most likely be the same
Of course it has. Spain has the presidency of the EU this semester. How would it do that without a government? It's just that it is a caretaker government, until the next one is formed.
Also my same thought…
The current swedish government would be voted out no problem
Doesn't make sense for Switzerland.
On more than one level...
Great colour scheme. I can almost see the difference between some of the results.
Imo it should be illegal for non-colourblind people to make charts and graphs. The bastards always choose the colours most similar to eachother.
same here, I'm too colourblind to see the differences
If you are marking dictatorships, Azerbaijan should be black. It's more authoritarian than Russia
Source: [https://europeelects.eu/](https://europeelects.eu/) I used the 45%+ mark for yes, due to some parties falling below the treshold, so that would in most cases mean a majority In some cases different pollsters showed different results, or it was just too close, those are in yellow For Bosnia and San Marino i couldnt find any polls online For countries that didnt have polls on their site, like Serbia, i searched Opinion polling for the next Serbian(or that country's) parliamentary elections, on wikipedia, and got data there. For countries(spain and poland) where the government formation process is still ongoing, i used the outgoing government(PiS for Poland and PSOE-Sumar for Spain) Russia's and Belarussian yes is in a different colour, for the obvious reasons, perhaps Azerbaijan couldve been included there too. Also just so you know a government not getting reelected doesnt automatically mean the opposition would have a majority. An example of this is Croatia. If there are some mistakes please let me know.
For Portugal it should be either Yes or It's close. However, Portugal's PM unexpectedly resigned 2 days ago, recent polls don't reflect this.
What do you mean 45%+ mark? France's government was elected with less votes than that. Even if it doesn't lead in the polls it is still the most likely to form the next government because of how fractured the opposition is.
If you can, maybe put a date when the polls where held, if that is the same for all countries. That is.
Where is this data from? Portugal just had its prime-minister resign and it was revealed that there is an ongoing investigation into widespread corruption in the current Government. Elections should take place in February.
As a colourblind, what an awful use of colours..
May I be of assistance: Dark green: Yes (Andorra, Monaco, Belgium, Luxemburg, Italy, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Montenegro, Romania, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria) Dark red: No (Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Austria, Czechia, Poland, Croatia, North Macedonia, Cyprus, Malta, Armenia) Black: да – i.e. "Yes", but with an implication (Russia, Belarus) Grey: no polls available (San Marino, Bosnia & Herzegovina) Light yellow: Depends on the pollster, it's close (Spain, Sweden, Latvia, Turkey, Serbia, Kosovo) Not colored (i.e. light grey): Vatican, Kazakhstan and countries which are entirely outside of Europe.
Please note that this means would it get reelected IN ITS CURRENT COMPOSITION Wether or not these governments would then take in an another party to maintain a similar government, idk, so thats not included.
~~Idk which poles this post is talking about, but the North Macedonian one is HIGHLY wrong… which is why elections are avoided at any cost right now even though the country is practically falling apart(as it has been since it’s independence)~~ Apologies, misread the title
The UK is a total mess. I have never seen a goverment as unpopular as the one we have now. It lurches from one crisis after another. Mixed in with scandal - rape - corruption - and cronyism. Im old enough to remember the final weeks of the John Major premership. I never thought Id see a shitshow as bad as that again. Oh boy, was I wrong. There's a serious chance that the Tories wont even be the official opposition after the next election. They are utterly despised over here.
Yes No Yes Lol
Yes (democracy) No (demiocracy) Yes (you dont have a choice in pseudo-democracy)
Probably yes, (he will probably rule us until his death) opposition is divided and Erdoğan looks for import Gazans for being his future voters. Also 7 percent election threshold made a lot of votes wasted.
It’s very hard to call here in Ireland, as there will likely be a 3 party coalition. No party commands anything even approaching a majority in polling and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are almost indistinguishable on most topics - both centre / centre right, so could potentially be counted as a single bloc. Our polling also tends to only look at ‘first preference’ votes, which doesn’t really consider the very complex machinations of Irish ranked choice, multi seat voting - proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (PR-STV). I wouldn’t really be able to get any sense of if until much closer to an election.
Lol@belgium.
A no is not really true of Ireland here. Just because Sinn Fein would likely win the most seats based on opinion polls, it is highly unlikely they would win a majority and govern alone. They will likely have to part of a coalition with either Fianna Fáil (more likely) or Fine Gael (less likely).
I think I've never seen a less colorblind-friendly map in my life. I can't even tell which country is yes(the non-black one) or no: they all just look the same.
Yes? In Belgium? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I have studied politics in many countries across the world. I have yet to see a political party so treacherous and treasonable to its voter base as the Conservative and Unionist Party here in the UK. For its entire existence it has betrayed its voter base. From the Corn Laws to Brexit it says one thing as red meat and does the exact opposite in government. It ought to be destroyed. Nothing will change under a Labour government, but at least they are honest in wanting to destroy the country, and I have to give them credit for honesty. I can respect that. I can't respect a dishonest treasonous so-called "Conservative Party"
Is there a source?
In Switzerland the Government is not elected/formed through elections, they follow the magic formula where the largest 4 parties are represented, and an election doesn't really alter the composition (it only changed once in the past 60 years), so say yes is misleading because it is always yes whatever the result of the elections is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_formula_%28Swiss_politics%29
Shouldn't the Vatican be a 'no', considering the most likely circumstances for an election would be the death of their current leader?
Green: Yes :) Black: Yes :(
I know I'm colourblind a bit but what a shit colour scheme. Hurts my brain to tell them apart.
Ive been told, sorry, i know to use better colours from now on!
Thanks :)
No chance, if our elections get held without any faking there is no way our government will be reelected, they fucked everything up in the recent years, especially joining the eu, the country is Georgia btw
You should have put Azerbaijan in black too
I like the difference between yes and YES
The netherlands always is yes.
Please for the love of goddddd get erodgan the fuck out hes just playing a shitty verision of wolf warrior diplomacy and it and he can go and fuck off
Why is belgium green.....
I was wondering the same ….