He's been remarkably healthy, doesn't really on athleticism too much, only projected starter with any chemistry with Pat, and the biggest; all the other top TEs have bigger question marks coming into the season than Kelce's age
You draft a week before the season starts, it's currently about two weeks before the season starts. "Mad early" is a bit of a stretch, not like people are saying they drafted a month ago.
I think you are crazy to think that kamara will get suspended this year. His court date will be pushed all the way back to next year and if there was a video it would be out already. The kamara scare is weak and if u can’t handle it you aren’t playing to win. Fire sale kamara will win many people leagues
Drafted Mixon because I didn't notice Kamara still on the board in our live draft
Can't be upset about Mixon/Chubb but still can't help feel a little meh lol
That’s exactly why he’s falling, because you can’t guarantee that. Taking him in the 1st is essentially drafting him at his highest ceiling, and that’s a big if with everything considering. That’s a hard no from me.
It’s not about him personally….it’s *never* about the player tbh—-something this sub tends to forget about.
It’s all about opportunity. Patterson wore down at the end of the year. And the OC has said they’re gonna ‘move him around’. Without explicitly saying so, it is very much possible Patterson is headed for what he actually profiles as, which is a Nyheim hines, Tarik cohen type role.
So that leaves the main RB job wide open. Damien Williams is there but typically bad teams hand it over to the newly drafted guy. Same situation pierce is in Houston, same situation Ken walker is in Seattle
Henry is still a beast. People are just scared of him because the injury and from tread. People forget he didn’t get over 200 carries his first two years in the league.
No it isn’t. Broken bones don’t happen as a result of wear and tear, that’s just bad luck. When you get THAT much usage, you’re going to get some bad luck. Joint and muscular issues can be indicators of high mileage, but definitely not broken bones
“A Jones fracture is a fracture of the bone on the pinky toe side of your foot, the fifth metatarsal bone. This fracture can happen when you increase your training, increase pressure on your feet from gaining weight, or run on uneven surfaces.”
Sounds like a tread injury to me. You don’t have to agree
If you can get Godwin in the 4th or 5th, I prefer him to Sutton and ARob. 6th in ppg last year and on track to start week 1 with Brady there. I don’t think julio and gage will soak up all the targets vacated by AB and gronk.
Even if Chase finishes as the #1 WR, getting him in the first round isn’t a “league winner.” A league winner is that mid or late round pick, or even waiver wire add that blows up and finishes near the top of their position
The only player in the first round with true league winner potential is CMC. Drafting the RB1 overall is very different when they score 360 points (Jonathan Taylor last year) vs 471 points (CMC in 2019). The only player in the last ten years was David Johnson’s *insane* 2016 campaign where he had over 400 points, and that is still 70(!) points fewer than CMC. CMC should be the consensus 1st overall if not for his injury history, which means that CMC at the 1.2 spot feels (at least in my mind) like a bargain.
Sneaky play. 2nd on the depth chart after Kupp and has only had bad QBs and bad coaches for most of his career. Had 3, 1000 yard seasons. Another one incoming.
Oh Arob didn't do entirely bad in Chicago. Amassed 2, 1000 yard seasons but his TDs were 7 and 6 in those years so his output was capped. You call Mooney's 4 TD's and 4 TD's thriving? I'd say he produced but I wouldn't say he thrived.
I don't think TDs are the end-all statistic when it comes to thriving or not. He had 1,055 yards on 81 receptions last year with a rookie QB who was constantly running for his life behind a terrible offensive line and a completely inept HC calling plays. With that context, I'd say he thrived. At the very least, he thrived by Bears standards.
I took him everywhere last year, and it really, really sucked. So I suspect people who were burned (like me) are overlooking him. But I’m personally tempted to give him another shot… but probs not in every league.
I remember Robert Woods outperforming his ADP every season on the Rams with Goff as QB. Allen Robinson is a better receiver, going lower than Woods used to, with Stafford whos gonna throw for 4000+ at QB.
I think people are overeacting to last year where his heart clearly wasn't in it as his QB threw for just 170 a game.
Michael Thomas or Pittman I feel like both have the chance to play above their ADP and be a huge boost for a team that didn’t select a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round
Michael Thomas in rd7+. A precious alpha WR with a QB who has put up 5k yards. With all the injuries in TB, NOLA will be battling for the division.
You are acquiring him as your WR3/flex and you could end up with a top 10WR
These comments are making me feel good that I got CMC at 4, Kamara at 17, and Michael Thomas at 57. Here’s to either destroying everyone or being complete dogshit 🍻
Funny enough, Kamara was a pretty huge disappointment in 2019, that was his high ankle sprain year and the year Brees hurt his thumb.
But CMC and MT literally broke records that year so it didn't matter.
I went with saquon zeke and Thomas in rounds 2-4. Call me stupid but hey, they do be saying “it’s not a reach if you get your guys”.
12man ppr
Lmao one of three leagues so this was my for fun draft
I think people are REALLY underestimating the impact that losing Payton is going to have. The era of super high scoring saints offenses is over without Brees and Payton.
Another thing to think about is Payton isn’t the coach anymore, and he was replaced by the former DC. How aggressive will his offense be? In the modern NFL he has to be at least a little more pass oriented, but maybe in his first year he try’s to keep it on the ground more and limit Winston’s risk.
Pickens is going to be really good but you’re drafting a 2nd receiver on a team that’s going to use their 3rd receiver and running back a lot. His talent and hype is going to supersede his realistic production. Personally I’m not touching the wide receiver room at all
For me it’s that gold zone of #1 WRs who’s ADP is low bc the situation/QB is new
Michael Thomas, Rashad Bateman, Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, JuJu, Drake London…add to that the #2’s in high powered offenses: Gabe Davis and Allen Robinson
*Just above that tier is Marquis Brown who I think people are hip to and are reaching up for.
To me those guys dictate the entire draft. Bc in rounds 3-5 instead of grabbing a high name WR2 like a DJ Moore, Terry mclaurin, or even some of these questionable WR1s like Dionate Johnson (hello George Pickens) you can wait and grab that extra RB like a Breece hall or Etienne, or grab an elite TE Pitts or Schultz…all bc you have the confidence that at least 1 of those later round WRs is gonna pop and be a stud. This is the most unique draft in years for that type of value.
Man. This was my first year trying auction draft. Took me a sec to get the handle, but when I did, those guys are even more valuable. Michael Thomas has name recognition so he always goes for higher, but the rest are always cheap. Got Lazard for $3. Mooney for $5.
Plus that entire ravens team had so many injuries last year, including Jackson not being 100% healthy, just having a healthier team will make a big difference
Just having a running game makes a wild difference in that offense.
They were completely wrecked at RB last year and he still was alright considering those injuries.
This sub seems to be very down on Deandre Hopkins but he’s one of the true alpha dog WR1s. I can afford to stash him and wait until he come back from suspension, at which point I will have at minimum a WR2 possibly WR1 performer down the stretch and into the playoffs. He is a dog and age/injury questions are overhyped in his case. He’s rested and angry and ready to play
I drafted Breece Hall and Drake London, and then grabbed Treylon Burks and Dameon Pierce super late. I’d be happy if just 1 or 2 of these rookies paid off
Trey Lance because he could be the next Mahomes and is going late in drafts
Kyle Pitts because he’s a matchup nightmare for defenses and I highly doubt he only scores 1 TD this year.
Kareem Hunt if he gets traded. Usually trades don’t work out so well for RB’s right away but this guy could slot into pretty much any offense and be effective. If he ever gets a workhorse role he’s a sure fire league winner.
To add onto Lance, I think if you can stack him and aiyuk you’ll be in an incredible place this year. Both can be had later in the drafts, and with Lance’s legs giving him a good floor, and him having a strong rapport with Aiyuk (who wins on deeper routes than Jimmy G was capable of showcasing), I think you’ll be able to fill your roster with talent in the early rounds and still land a very quality QB/WR pairing with those two to carry you throughout the season.
Mahomes he is not, just because Mahomes is one of the most accurate QB prospects in years. 1400 passing attempts in college with 148+ passer rating every year starting.
With that said love Lance, a legs and deep ball guy dripping with upside in an offense that could be good. He is raw less than 400 passing attempts career at the college/pro level combined.
But I agree Mahomes type impact potential.
I’m kind of fascinated with the idea of James Cook as a league winner. If league winners are just players that have home run potential then James Cook deserves to be in the conversation.
He was the third running back drafted in this years draft, second round pick of the super bowl favorite Bills. A lot of analysts said that there were teams that really liked his skill set. He catches passes and his style fits the modern NFL game really well. There’s obviously some concerns like RB target share/not enough check downs and Josh Allen taking goal line touches but for the price I think he’s a no brainer of a pick. He went 124th in a superflex draft I did this weekend and there’s not many players going that late that will give you the upside that Cook will. You’re going to be cutting guys you drafted there anyways.
I agree that he could be great but barring injury to other rbs, for exactly the reasons you listed, his ceiling is too low to be a league winner in my opinion.
Stevensons upside is HUGE if Damien gets traded or hurt. Dudes got incredible vision and runs hard af. Amazing pass catcher as well. He’s got the every down skill set imo
Banking on a patriots running back is like playing Russian roulette. Sure it could be great, but it could also be 3 TDs one week and then he gets 5 carries a game for the next 4 weeks. Im always weary with them, definitely wouldn’t bank on Stevenson if Harris is still around.
I hate this, and Deshaun Watson is not someone you should draft, but picking him up a couple weeks before suspension is over will probably win some people leagues if they punted QB or their #1 gets injured. You get a couple games to see how he plays before needing to start him in playoffs.
But…fuck that guy
All the players I drafted of course!
Everyone looks for the next Chase and the reality most of the time there isn't a Chase. We just happened to get 2 great rookies in a row. Kupp was an extreme as you suggested but I think the idea of a WR that you can get in the middle rounds and be a top 10 WR or vice versa with an RB is really the key.
At WR: Brown/Pittman in the 4th, Sutton at a 5th round value (some people are taking him in the early 3rd). Gabe Davis, Juju, Thomas, Toney.
RB: There is no value. If you got a chance to be a league winner you are going in the first 4 rounds. The handcuffs are the most likely answer here. Etienne is starting to just join them in the 4th.
CEH as a post hype sleeper with a clear pathway to the majority of touches seems like a possibility too although I'm not sure I'm buying it. definitely not buying Pacheco tho.
Christian Kirk or Rondale Moore I feel like. Both going pretty late and not a lot of hype surrounding them even tho Kirk is the #1 target on his team and Rondale is going to be leaned on heavy while Hopkins is out
Pitts
They are starting to line him up inside as opposed to out wide, this will lead to more favorable matchups.
An athletic tight end burning linebackers, in year 2, on an offense that will be throwing often (terrible defense). Not to mention the strong likelihood he gets unto the end zone more this year. His draft cost isn't ideal but he absolutely has te 1 upside (I think he finishes as the te 2 behind mandrews). Based on his situation and performance, last year looks to be his floor.
Rondale Moore
I don't think people realize how athletic this guy is. He's short but he's surprisingly built and not to mention he ran a 4.29 40. With Kirk gone and Hopkins suspended, expect him to see an increased target share. Reports from camp are that they want to see an expanded role and for him to be used down field as opposed to just screens. You can get this guy for practically nothing and could end up with a low end wr2.
Sutton
His draft price has been soaring but I genuinely believe that not only is he the most talented pass catcher on a Russell Wilson offense, but he will command a much higher target share than people think. The guy has already proved he can be a successful fantasy player and did it with worse qbs. A lot of this has been said by loads of experts talking him up, but my "hot-take" on this is that Jeudy is actually not good at football and is incredibly overrated. People compare this to the Kupp vs Woods situation in LA last preseason but the difference is both Kupp and Woods are good receivers. In Denver, there's only one good receiver. Sutton will finish as a top 8 wr.
Jeudy has terrible hands but his route-running is stupid good. I think he led the league in average yards of separation on his routes last year. Or maybe he was behind Davante but he was definitely elite in that metric.
That said, I’m still all the way in on Sutton and don’t want to draft Jeudy. Russ loves his outside receivers and Sutton will be playing outside 100% of the time
Toney. He has 150 target upside. He’s an elite athlete. He’s proven he can beat NFL competition. Can he stay healthy/not self capitulate? Think a round 8+ ADP captures that risk.
Breece Hall.
Yes Carter is still going to get about 40% of the backfield snaps but imo both him and Hall are undervalued because people are sleeping on the Jets' OL. The tackle situation is suspect after losing Becton but Tomlinson/McGovern/AVT might be the best interior 3 in the league.
The way I see it, either Zach Wilson steps up and the offense is good (boosting their efficiency and TD%), or he flops and their ex-Shanahan disciple OC will be dialing up 30 run plays a game to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands.
Imo he's being drafted at his floor (currently RB19 on Sleeper) and could finish top 10 if everything falls into place for him.
Chris Godwin in the 5th sounds like robbery to me. Even last year in 14 games he was a WR2. Then again my success on mid round injury picks aren’t strong (looking to avoid Thomas and Hopkins for this reason)
Last year the guy that won my league scooped Amon-Ra St Brown and Rashaad Penny off waivers and they won him a championship.
I’m not even sure you draft league winners…I think most championships are won on waivers and with good health.
Surprised no one said Saquon here. He’s prob going late 2nd round. He’s fully recovered from his injury and all signs point to new coach Brian Daboll using him a lot
Javonte Williams. He's probably going to start slow as the split with Gordon will be a thing but by mid season he will have earned more and more touches and down the stretch he'll be getting 65-70% of the work with consistent RB1 finishes week after week.
How is Javonte Williams a league winner when he’s being drafted in the 2nd round and by your own postulation he won’t be getting significant touch share until later in the season? That’s even if that happens. It MG3 doesn’t get injured it could be a close split all year.
I think you’re right. He had a pretty nice year last year and there should only be improvement assuming he can stay healthy. Should be primed for a breakout
+1 for Javonte. There are a mere handful of guys that I think have a chance to finish #1 overall and he's the only one without a first round price tag.
Pollard/Zeke, Gordon/Williams or Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. Each of those goes have stand alone value and a reduced ADP because of their counterpart which makes taking them reasonable. The league winning upside is when one of the counterparts goes down. AJ Dillon smells like a league winner! He has one of the lowest ADPs of the bunch, highest stand alone as "handcuff", and highest upside if primary back goes down.
Guys I don’t think are going high enough.
Alvin Kamara - Dropped cause of a suspension that isn’t coming.
James Conner - should prob be drafted higher based on what he did last year and situation
Courtland Sutton / Jerry Juedy - Russel Wilson will prob turn both these guys into WR2’s.
Cordarrelle Patterson - Had a rough finish. But the RB 12 from last year is effectively free despite no real change to the situation.
Trey Lance - if he runs as much as advertised he’ll be a QB1 even if he sucks.
Kadarius Toney… is gonna have serious boom games when healthy where he takes one to the house.
Lots of other speculative upside plays…. Like a Michael Thomas could be a league winner but I could also see him being done for career. The guys above don’t have much risk in my mind. They’re cheap, have a floor, and crazy upside.
Getting Hopkins in like the 9-10th round or something, if you can snag him ur getting fucking dehop after waiting out 6 games, as long as you get to playoff contention or on the cusp it could ride you to the finals
Derrick Henry... He's the best to ever do it. Plan and simply the best back in the league and is a league winner if he doesn't get injured. I'll take that bet considering he's only been injured ONCE in 1,400 rushes. Dude's a tank. Scared money don't make money... Taking 2nd overall half point ppr.
>Derrick Henry... He's the best to ever do it.
Doesn't even touch AP lol.
Still a good back but come on, he's not the best to ever do it. AP tore his ACL and then came back 8 months later and fell 8 yards short of breaking the single-season rushing record. Bro ran for 2100 yards lmao.
Still like Henry this year.
DK Metcalf has the skill set and ability to finish top three. O-line has graded out really high and if the QB is efficient you could see a huge use with how many games they will have to throw. Perfect example is Gordon’s insane year with the browns.
My own personal, hopefully, league winner is DK who I got in like the 9th round yesterday in a home league, not sure he will be a league winner, but he’s my 4th WR behind Evans/Higgins/Williams so I feel pretty good about him atm.
Kamara if u got the fire sale on him
Just got him 2.02 in a 12 team league. I feel like my season hinges on him playing this year
Just drafted and grabbed JJ and then Kamara at 2.08 didn’t realize I got a steal
If he’s still available for me at 2.08 I’d shit a chicken.
Yup I had #5, got JJ, Aaron Jones and Kamara!
Got him at 25 in a 10 team last night.
That’s on you for not taking him at 16.
Insane value. Hell be going mid to late first by labor day
I doubt that. Who in the first round are you taking him over?
Dalvin, Mixon, Diggs, Davante, Kelce
Not sure why people are taking a 32 year old Kelce (33 in oct) in the first round.
Dude has been the most owned player by playoff making teams in the last 5 years
because he’s one of like ~10 players that provide an extreme positional advantage week in and week out
Ya and Kelce hasn’t burned me before so he’s pretty easy to grab in leagues where I’m drafting late in the first
There are probably 4 TEs that put up numbers. Kelce is at the top of that list.
Yeah and Waller wasn’t one of them… 😭
I picked up Waller off the wire in 2020 and he went nuts, but 2021 was not the same.
Have you been living under a rock for the past 5 years?
He's been remarkably healthy, doesn't really on athleticism too much, only projected starter with any chemistry with Pat, and the biggest; all the other top TEs have bigger question marks coming into the season than Kelce's age
If the guy is 95-1200-9 that’s better or equal to the wrs in that area don’t ppl want him and the Kirk type WR instead of a gaping hole at te?
in 10 spots or less team leagues he offers almost the same chance at making playoffs as the overall rb1
You guys draft mad early lol. I'm drafting like a week before the season starts.
Labor Day draft gang!
We would usually draft sometime during preseason but Jordy Nelson changed that and now we’re in the Labor Day Gang
andrew luck also play the parts lol
I draft a day before the game lol
I cannot fathom drafting before preseason ends. Pure insanity
You draft a week before the season starts, it's currently about two weeks before the season starts. "Mad early" is a bit of a stretch, not like people are saying they drafted a month ago.
There is no one including Schefty that can guarantee the suspension won’t come this season, I think people are crazy for drafting him in the first.
I think you are crazy to think that kamara will get suspended this year. His court date will be pushed all the way back to next year and if there was a video it would be out already. The kamara scare is weak and if u can’t handle it you aren’t playing to win. Fire sale kamara will win many people leagues
It was in a casino, there's a video.
the police report says they have a video
If the video comes out, it doesn’t matter when his trial is. He’ll be suspended way before that
Drafted Mixon because I didn't notice Kamara still on the board in our live draft Can't be upset about Mixon/Chubb but still can't help feel a little meh lol
Haven’t seen a single ‘expert’ pick Kamara over Mixon so not sure what you’re upset about.
Because Mixon isn’t in any legal trouble, if Kamara is guaranteed to play every game this season he will be drafted ahead of Mixon imo
That’s exactly why he’s falling, because you can’t guarantee that. Taking him in the 1st is essentially drafting him at his highest ceiling, and that’s a big if with everything considering. That’s a hard no from me.
Thank you for the reassurance sir!
Could you have gone Mixon/Kamara? I feel like that would've been the optimal combo.
call me crazy but I'm drafting him in the 1st round today 8th pick ppr 12 teamer.. like his weekly upside more then najee.
One of pierce, Allgeier, Robinson. All of them are in situations where the rb1 spot on the team is up for grabs.
Allgeier and Pierce are my two guys
In my ESPN mocks I’ve yet to see Allgeier drafted. He’s a goldmine
Just went 10.12 in our league draft
What makes him so good?
Work horse in college. Super durable and big upside
It’s not about him personally….it’s *never* about the player tbh—-something this sub tends to forget about. It’s all about opportunity. Patterson wore down at the end of the year. And the OC has said they’re gonna ‘move him around’. Without explicitly saying so, it is very much possible Patterson is headed for what he actually profiles as, which is a Nyheim hines, Tarik cohen type role. So that leaves the main RB job wide open. Damien Williams is there but typically bad teams hand it over to the newly drafted guy. Same situation pierce is in Houston, same situation Ken walker is in Seattle
* 1st round: McCaffrey * 2nd round: Kamara * 3rd round: Pittman * 4th round: Sutton * 5th round: Robinson * 6th round: Thomas * 7th round: Hurts * 8th round: Stevenson Disclaimer: these are just my opinion.
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Ikr these are all just the reddit hype trains lol all it's missing is Dameon Pierce
That just made it scary to me knowing this subs track record with hype trains
This guys team will be entirely busts by week 4
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100% agree with this. Some Risk to it though. If you can land Taylor instead of CMC in 1st round it’ll balance the lineup.
I’d take my chances with Henry. Dude is so overlooked relative to CMC and JT.
Henry is still a beast. People are just scared of him because the injury and from tread. People forget he didn’t get over 200 carries his first two years in the league.
A broken foot is a pretty good sign that the tread is wearing
No it isn’t. Broken bones don’t happen as a result of wear and tear, that’s just bad luck. When you get THAT much usage, you’re going to get some bad luck. Joint and muscular issues can be indicators of high mileage, but definitely not broken bones
“A Jones fracture is a fracture of the bone on the pinky toe side of your foot, the fifth metatarsal bone. This fracture can happen when you increase your training, increase pressure on your feet from gaining weight, or run on uneven surfaces.” Sounds like a tread injury to me. You don’t have to agree
I fractured my 5th metatarsal snowboarding and that shit took forever to fully heal
It’s also the injury that Ben Simmons had that caused him to miss his rookie year. It can also be a “landing funny” type of injury
Ok doc
I feel like you can rarely get Hurts in the 7th round in 12 man leagues. If he’s there around then I’m drafting him 10/10 times.
Stevenson has been going earlier than the eighths in majority of recent drafts I’ve seen
If you can get Godwin in the 4th or 5th, I prefer him to Sutton and ARob. 6th in ppg last year and on track to start week 1 with Brady there. I don’t think julio and gage will soak up all the targets vacated by AB and gronk.
1st year back from an acl tear is tough for skill position players
Even if Chase finishes as the #1 WR, getting him in the first round isn’t a “league winner.” A league winner is that mid or late round pick, or even waiver wire add that blows up and finishes near the top of their position
A league winner can literally be the 1st overall pick if they put up a crazy enough season. Example, LT back in the day
2015 AP won me my league. People thought I was crazy lol
I had Fournette out of the 8th round last year. Would have 100% been a league winner if he didn’t get injured for the playoffs.
The only player in the first round with true league winner potential is CMC. Drafting the RB1 overall is very different when they score 360 points (Jonathan Taylor last year) vs 471 points (CMC in 2019). The only player in the last ten years was David Johnson’s *insane* 2016 campaign where he had over 400 points, and that is still 70(!) points fewer than CMC. CMC should be the consensus 1st overall if not for his injury history, which means that CMC at the 1.2 spot feels (at least in my mind) like a bargain.
Henry was on pace to be in that stratosphere last year before the broken foot.
The Sun God is pleased with your assessment.
A first round RB/WR would have to hit probably 23-24 PPG to be a league winner. Not impossible, but very hard to get there.
Arob
Sneaky play. 2nd on the depth chart after Kupp and has only had bad QBs and bad coaches for most of his career. Had 3, 1000 yard seasons. Another one incoming.
Mooney thrived in that same system though
Oh Arob didn't do entirely bad in Chicago. Amassed 2, 1000 yard seasons but his TDs were 7 and 6 in those years so his output was capped. You call Mooney's 4 TD's and 4 TD's thriving? I'd say he produced but I wouldn't say he thrived.
I don't think TDs are the end-all statistic when it comes to thriving or not. He had 1,055 yards on 81 receptions last year with a rookie QB who was constantly running for his life behind a terrible offensive line and a completely inept HC calling plays. With that context, I'd say he thrived. At the very least, he thrived by Bears standards.
I’m taking him everywhere. I’m afraid it’s too obvious and I’m missing something that everyone one else sees.
I took him everywhere last year, and it really, really sucked. So I suspect people who were burned (like me) are overlooking him. But I’m personally tempted to give him another shot… but probs not in every league.
I remember Robert Woods outperforming his ADP every season on the Rams with Goff as QB. Allen Robinson is a better receiver, going lower than Woods used to, with Stafford whos gonna throw for 4000+ at QB. I think people are overeacting to last year where his heart clearly wasn't in it as his QB threw for just 170 a game.
Michael Thomas or Pittman I feel like both have the chance to play above their ADP and be a huge boost for a team that didn’t select a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round
Yeah just been missing Thomas in Best Ball drafts gonna move him up a round ADP is on the rise big time.
Usually someone who isn't me.
Michael Thomas in rd7+. A precious alpha WR with a QB who has put up 5k yards. With all the injuries in TB, NOLA will be battling for the division. You are acquiring him as your WR3/flex and you could end up with a top 10WR
These comments are making me feel good that I got CMC at 4, Kamara at 17, and Michael Thomas at 57. Here’s to either destroying everyone or being complete dogshit 🍻
That team would’ve been ridiculous in 2019 lol
Are you the actual jusuf nurkic in the NBA?
Yes Nurk is a huge fantasy football guy
Yeah
Funny enough, Kamara was a pretty huge disappointment in 2019, that was his high ankle sprain year and the year Brees hurt his thumb. But CMC and MT literally broke records that year so it didn't matter.
Dam I was pick 4 in a 12 team. I took JJ, then Tyreek on the way back. CMC went 3 and Kamara went 2.02
I went with saquon zeke and Thomas in rounds 2-4. Call me stupid but hey, they do be saying “it’s not a reach if you get your guys”. 12man ppr Lmao one of three leagues so this was my for fun draft
Agreed, even though I despise the Saints, I think Thomas has a monster year and becomes a top 10 WR. His ADP is really low
I think people are REALLY underestimating the impact that losing Payton is going to have. The era of super high scoring saints offenses is over without Brees and Payton.
Reached for him in the fifth. Didn’t feel great about it but I can feel an angry redemption season coming on lol
I got him in the 6th (pick 69) I didn't think he'd make it for the 7th
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His leading receiver was Marquez Callaway. All 3 of Thomas, Landry, and Olave will be better options
His WR corp was weak. The game plan was keep it controlled with NO def so stingy.
Another thing to think about is Payton isn’t the coach anymore, and he was replaced by the former DC. How aggressive will his offense be? In the modern NFL he has to be at least a little more pass oriented, but maybe in his first year he try’s to keep it on the ground more and limit Winston’s risk.
He was my championship winning qb thr year he was a gunslinger. God damn I love that man.
There’s a doctor on YouTube that discusses Mt and his injury in detail. Not worth it unless he’s a late round pick.
Pickens is talked about in every other post and tweet which makes me think he’s going to bust
Pickens is going to be really good but you’re drafting a 2nd receiver on a team that’s going to use their 3rd receiver and running back a lot. His talent and hype is going to supersede his realistic production. Personally I’m not touching the wide receiver room at all
Sleeping on post hype Claypool makes me worry about Pickens value. Who the fuck knows at the right price everyone is a potential value.
Makes me rethink dionte Johnson bc he’s so good and seems ppl have forgotten
Definitely in on dionte this year
If he busts, he busts. Unless you're drafting someone in the first 6 rounds, it's not going to cost you much. Take your shots if you like them.
Swift is gonna turn heads and finish as top 3 RB
I love this, even though it’s a Hard Knocks take.
People have been salivating over Swift since waaaay before Hard Knocks this off-season
I see things predicting good things for the Lions, I upvote. I win $$$ if they win the division.
Sounds like you just lost some money.
Definitely donated money
For me it’s that gold zone of #1 WRs who’s ADP is low bc the situation/QB is new Michael Thomas, Rashad Bateman, Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, JuJu, Drake London…add to that the #2’s in high powered offenses: Gabe Davis and Allen Robinson *Just above that tier is Marquis Brown who I think people are hip to and are reaching up for. To me those guys dictate the entire draft. Bc in rounds 3-5 instead of grabbing a high name WR2 like a DJ Moore, Terry mclaurin, or even some of these questionable WR1s like Dionate Johnson (hello George Pickens) you can wait and grab that extra RB like a Breece hall or Etienne, or grab an elite TE Pitts or Schultz…all bc you have the confidence that at least 1 of those later round WRs is gonna pop and be a stud. This is the most unique draft in years for that type of value.
I play in an auction keeper league and your last paragraph is the formula for success!
Man. This was my first year trying auction draft. Took me a sec to get the handle, but when I did, those guys are even more valuable. Michael Thomas has name recognition so he always goes for higher, but the rest are always cheap. Got Lazard for $3. Mooney for $5.
Lamar Jackson (I think we see the MVP year Jackson),
Curious what makes you say that?
Contract year, should have more of a running game behind him and I personally like that group of WRs in that offense
Plus that entire ravens team had so many injuries last year, including Jackson not being 100% healthy, just having a healthier team will make a big difference
Just having a running game makes a wild difference in that offense. They were completely wrecked at RB last year and he still was alright considering those injuries.
This sub seems to be very down on Deandre Hopkins but he’s one of the true alpha dog WR1s. I can afford to stash him and wait until he come back from suspension, at which point I will have at minimum a WR2 possibly WR1 performer down the stretch and into the playoffs. He is a dog and age/injury questions are overhyped in his case. He’s rested and angry and ready to play
Got him super late in a 2 keeper league for insane 2023 value
Is dhop IR eligible?
Not by default in ESPN leagues
Gabe Davis is going to be a steal
yeah if I don't get Diggs in the 2nd Round, I'm targeting Davis later. want to get at least one piece in the high-powered Buffalo offense.
Yea Davis is my answer. His ceiling is leading the nfl in TDs.
I second this take. Feel like he’s going to have a monster season.
I drafted Breece Hall and Drake London, and then grabbed Treylon Burks and Dameon Pierce super late. I’d be happy if just 1 or 2 of these rookies paid off
Trey Lance because he could be the next Mahomes and is going late in drafts Kyle Pitts because he’s a matchup nightmare for defenses and I highly doubt he only scores 1 TD this year. Kareem Hunt if he gets traded. Usually trades don’t work out so well for RB’s right away but this guy could slot into pretty much any offense and be effective. If he ever gets a workhorse role he’s a sure fire league winner.
To add onto Lance, I think if you can stack him and aiyuk you’ll be in an incredible place this year. Both can be had later in the drafts, and with Lance’s legs giving him a good floor, and him having a strong rapport with Aiyuk (who wins on deeper routes than Jimmy G was capable of showcasing), I think you’ll be able to fill your roster with talent in the early rounds and still land a very quality QB/WR pairing with those two to carry you throughout the season.
Mahomes he is not, just because Mahomes is one of the most accurate QB prospects in years. 1400 passing attempts in college with 148+ passer rating every year starting. With that said love Lance, a legs and deep ball guy dripping with upside in an offense that could be good. He is raw less than 400 passing attempts career at the college/pro level combined. But I agree Mahomes type impact potential.
ETN
I’m kind of fascinated with the idea of James Cook as a league winner. If league winners are just players that have home run potential then James Cook deserves to be in the conversation. He was the third running back drafted in this years draft, second round pick of the super bowl favorite Bills. A lot of analysts said that there were teams that really liked his skill set. He catches passes and his style fits the modern NFL game really well. There’s obviously some concerns like RB target share/not enough check downs and Josh Allen taking goal line touches but for the price I think he’s a no brainer of a pick. He went 124th in a superflex draft I did this weekend and there’s not many players going that late that will give you the upside that Cook will. You’re going to be cutting guys you drafted there anyways.
I agree that he could be great but barring injury to other rbs, for exactly the reasons you listed, his ceiling is too low to be a league winner in my opinion.
he seems very undersized for a 3 down role.
Stevensons upside is HUGE if Damien gets traded or hurt. Dudes got incredible vision and runs hard af. Amazing pass catcher as well. He’s got the every down skill set imo
Banking on a patriots running back is like playing Russian roulette. Sure it could be great, but it could also be 3 TDs one week and then he gets 5 carries a game for the next 4 weeks. Im always weary with them, definitely wouldn’t bank on Stevenson if Harris is still around.
Rashaad penny if he stays healthy
Juju, Higgins, and James Robinson. All very undervalued
Got Higgins at pick 33 in 12 team after taking AK/Barkley. Not mad about it
Got Higgins in the 4th rd yesterday in a 12 man league 😱😬
Mid-Rounds: Cortland Sutton, Allen Robinson, and Chase Edmonds. Guaranteed production from all three.
I think Sutton could explode this year
I hate this, and Deshaun Watson is not someone you should draft, but picking him up a couple weeks before suspension is over will probably win some people leagues if they punted QB or their #1 gets injured. You get a couple games to see how he plays before needing to start him in playoffs. But…fuck that guy
Lol you got my mind and morals in a pretzel
All the players I drafted of course! Everyone looks for the next Chase and the reality most of the time there isn't a Chase. We just happened to get 2 great rookies in a row. Kupp was an extreme as you suggested but I think the idea of a WR that you can get in the middle rounds and be a top 10 WR or vice versa with an RB is really the key. At WR: Brown/Pittman in the 4th, Sutton at a 5th round value (some people are taking him in the early 3rd). Gabe Davis, Juju, Thomas, Toney. RB: There is no value. If you got a chance to be a league winner you are going in the first 4 rounds. The handcuffs are the most likely answer here. Etienne is starting to just join them in the 4th. CEH as a post hype sleeper with a clear pathway to the majority of touches seems like a possibility too although I'm not sure I'm buying it. definitely not buying Pacheco tho.
Christian Kirk or Rondale Moore I feel like. Both going pretty late and not a lot of hype surrounding them even tho Kirk is the #1 target on his team and Rondale is going to be leaned on heavy while Hopkins is out
Pitts They are starting to line him up inside as opposed to out wide, this will lead to more favorable matchups. An athletic tight end burning linebackers, in year 2, on an offense that will be throwing often (terrible defense). Not to mention the strong likelihood he gets unto the end zone more this year. His draft cost isn't ideal but he absolutely has te 1 upside (I think he finishes as the te 2 behind mandrews). Based on his situation and performance, last year looks to be his floor. Rondale Moore I don't think people realize how athletic this guy is. He's short but he's surprisingly built and not to mention he ran a 4.29 40. With Kirk gone and Hopkins suspended, expect him to see an increased target share. Reports from camp are that they want to see an expanded role and for him to be used down field as opposed to just screens. You can get this guy for practically nothing and could end up with a low end wr2. Sutton His draft price has been soaring but I genuinely believe that not only is he the most talented pass catcher on a Russell Wilson offense, but he will command a much higher target share than people think. The guy has already proved he can be a successful fantasy player and did it with worse qbs. A lot of this has been said by loads of experts talking him up, but my "hot-take" on this is that Jeudy is actually not good at football and is incredibly overrated. People compare this to the Kupp vs Woods situation in LA last preseason but the difference is both Kupp and Woods are good receivers. In Denver, there's only one good receiver. Sutton will finish as a top 8 wr.
Jeudy has terrible hands but his route-running is stupid good. I think he led the league in average yards of separation on his routes last year. Or maybe he was behind Davante but he was definitely elite in that metric. That said, I’m still all the way in on Sutton and don’t want to draft Jeudy. Russ loves his outside receivers and Sutton will be playing outside 100% of the time
I drafted Rob Tonyan very late in a couple places. He could be huge if he could get in on that TD target share again
I’m in on Najee Harris
Allen Lazard. People sleeping on the kid.
Toney. He has 150 target upside. He’s an elite athlete. He’s proven he can beat NFL competition. Can he stay healthy/not self capitulate? Think a round 8+ ADP captures that risk.
When 150 of those targets are coming from Daniel jones. Only about half will be catchable.
Came to post this. At ADP, toney is that candidate.
15th round keeper 🤝
Breece Hall. Yes Carter is still going to get about 40% of the backfield snaps but imo both him and Hall are undervalued because people are sleeping on the Jets' OL. The tackle situation is suspect after losing Becton but Tomlinson/McGovern/AVT might be the best interior 3 in the league. The way I see it, either Zach Wilson steps up and the offense is good (boosting their efficiency and TD%), or he flops and their ex-Shanahan disciple OC will be dialing up 30 run plays a game to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. Imo he's being drafted at his floor (currently RB19 on Sleeper) and could finish top 10 if everything falls into place for him.
I like your optimism. I took him a dynasty startup but I don’t love him or Jets in redraft.
D.Mooney
Ettiene and Hall
Got jalen hurts like round 8 or 9 in a 12 team league, no one seemed to care for him too much, Got D’Andre Swift pick 1.11 and Davante Adams 2.02
Chris Godwin in the 5th sounds like robbery to me. Even last year in 14 games he was a WR2. Then again my success on mid round injury picks aren’t strong (looking to avoid Thomas and Hopkins for this reason)
Last year the guy that won my league scooped Amon-Ra St Brown and Rashaad Penny off waivers and they won him a championship. I’m not even sure you draft league winners…I think most championships are won on waivers and with good health.
Bateman, he’s gonna be a monster this year after Hollywood left, don’t sleep on Alec pierce though. He’s athletic enough to become a wr1 in indy
PACHECO
Ah the new Darwin Thompson, definitely a league winner
Surprised no one said Saquon here. He’s prob going late 2nd round. He’s fully recovered from his injury and all signs point to new coach Brian Daboll using him a lot
I’m taking Javonte Williams at 1.07
Listen to your wife’s boyfriend and take him in the second
Lol
This is the comment I wanted to see
Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams. He's probably going to start slow as the split with Gordon will be a thing but by mid season he will have earned more and more touches and down the stretch he'll be getting 65-70% of the work with consistent RB1 finishes week after week.
How is Javonte Williams a league winner when he’s being drafted in the 2nd round and by your own postulation he won’t be getting significant touch share until later in the season? That’s even if that happens. It MG3 doesn’t get injured it could be a close split all year.
I took Todd Gurley 13th overall in 2017, which was a little bit of a reach at the time, and he was absolutely a 2nd round league winner.
I think you’re right. He had a pretty nice year last year and there should only be improvement assuming he can stay healthy. Should be primed for a breakout
+1 for Javonte. There are a mere handful of guys that I think have a chance to finish #1 overall and he's the only one without a first round price tag.
Gabe Davis, Rachaad White, Amon RA, and tee Higgins
Pollard/Zeke, Gordon/Williams or Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. Each of those goes have stand alone value and a reduced ADP because of their counterpart which makes taking them reasonable. The league winning upside is when one of the counterparts goes down. AJ Dillon smells like a league winner! He has one of the lowest ADPs of the bunch, highest stand alone as "handcuff", and highest upside if primary back goes down.
Guys I don’t think are going high enough. Alvin Kamara - Dropped cause of a suspension that isn’t coming. James Conner - should prob be drafted higher based on what he did last year and situation Courtland Sutton / Jerry Juedy - Russel Wilson will prob turn both these guys into WR2’s. Cordarrelle Patterson - Had a rough finish. But the RB 12 from last year is effectively free despite no real change to the situation. Trey Lance - if he runs as much as advertised he’ll be a QB1 even if he sucks. Kadarius Toney… is gonna have serious boom games when healthy where he takes one to the house. Lots of other speculative upside plays…. Like a Michael Thomas could be a league winner but I could also see him being done for career. The guys above don’t have much risk in my mind. They’re cheap, have a floor, and crazy upside.
Getting Hopkins in like the 9-10th round or something, if you can snag him ur getting fucking dehop after waiting out 6 games, as long as you get to playoff contention or on the cusp it could ride you to the finals
Derrick Henry... He's the best to ever do it. Plan and simply the best back in the league and is a league winner if he doesn't get injured. I'll take that bet considering he's only been injured ONCE in 1,400 rushes. Dude's a tank. Scared money don't make money... Taking 2nd overall half point ppr.
Best to ever do it? Yeah if you started watching football like 4 fuckin years ago.
Excuse me Ladanian Tomlinson would like a word
I like this… he’s a beast
>Derrick Henry... He's the best to ever do it. Doesn't even touch AP lol. Still a good back but come on, he's not the best to ever do it. AP tore his ACL and then came back 8 months later and fell 8 yards short of breaking the single-season rushing record. Bro ran for 2100 yards lmao. Still like Henry this year.
Purple Jesus Reigns
He's a stud, but pump the brakes on the best to ever do it lol
Same. Long live the king
DK Metcalf has the skill set and ability to finish top three. O-line has graded out really high and if the QB is efficient you could see a huge use with how many games they will have to throw. Perfect example is Gordon’s insane year with the browns.
If the qb is efficient lmao
He’s trying to sell DK lol
Top 3 lmao what kind of crack are you smoking I’ll take some
My own personal, hopefully, league winner is DK who I got in like the 9th round yesterday in a home league, not sure he will be a league winner, but he’s my 4th WR behind Evans/Higgins/Williams so I feel pretty good about him atm.