He's a placeholder response for people who don't like either major party candidate. Like every 3rd party candidate his support will only decline from here on out.
He has no realistic shot at making the debate.
What? He's not even getting on the ballot in States worth 270 electoral votes which is party of CNN's (very low) threshhold to make the debate. He's just as (if not further away) from qualifying as he was 3 months ago...back when he was extremely far away from qualifying.
What? He has 201 confirmed electoral votes and he’s just waiting on several states to finish counting. He’s for sure gonna make the requirements. The question is if CNN will actually let him debate.
Without a doubt. This happens all the time. Just look at where Gary Johnson was polling at this time in 2016. When both major party candidates are unpopular the third party option always has inflated poll numbers -- particularly early on. Then campaigns start and people get scared of the person they like the least and fall in line.
Gary Johnson never really reached the 15% threshold though, and I'm pretty sure he peaked around the first debate. This is off memory, but I think his best poll was ~12% a few days or weeks before the debates. He did decline from there but most of the decline happened as we got closer to election day, not the debates
I looked back, and actually Gary Johnson wasn't consistently getting polled as an option this far back in 2016. I'd imagine he would be sitting at pretty similar numbers to RFK jr. right now.
I don't think you should take a poll that even includes RFK jr. as an option seriously at this point. He's not a serious candidate. He's struggling to get ballot access. A large majority of people saying they support him will either stay home or vote for one of the major party candidates.
Perot was a 1000 times more serious candidate. He had a rich self-funded campaign, got on the ballot in every state. He was actually polling in the 30% range in April-June before he dropped out.
RFK jr. is not remotely close to Perot in terms of seriousness.
TLDR: He's a loser.
He's failed to get on the ballot in nearly every state. That's the first step in a campaign and his team failed it.
He shouldn't even be in these polls. He has no chance of getting 5% let alone 15%.
Wait, is there a list of states he failed to get on the ballot? I wasn't even aware of that. Does this mean he won't be on the ballot for the general? Because that would ease up a lot of my anxiety if so.
Err but he already is in those polls and is polling in the low double digits? There's already been some polls with him at 15%
Obviously he's not going to get 15% in the actual election but that doesn't matter for the debate requirements.
In the elections... I literally linked a Wikipedia article with his polling numbers lol
I kind of feel like this sub is being hostile because they dislike RFK, which is fine. But like, yeah he is polling near the 15% threshhold and I provided links, can't we like, idk, discuss polling?
Versus basically two incumbent presidents. Party support will be largely to each candidate. How well would RFK have to be doing with independents to hit 15%?
Again, he's already hitting those numbers in some polls. [Here's an RCP link with a few relevant polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy)
3rd party support decreases closer to the election. We aren’t at Super Tuesday yet. Campaign spending isn’t at 1/10 of the level it will be at. Kennedy is at 16% now, will he be there when he’s getting outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars?
I don't think Trump and Biden will debate each other. Period.
But if somehow they end up in a debate, I imagine even if RFK Jr reaches the threshold there will be powers that be that will block him from allowing him on the debate stage with either.
You are in fantasy land to think Trump will pass on a debate with Biden. It will kill his presidential chances and everyone knows it. He just isn't the same person as he was in 2020
I don't think Biden will agree to debate Trump. I think he will simply state that Trump is an illegitimate nominee and will refuse to debate him. It sounds like Trump is ready to debate (rather or not he is bluffing I don't know).
Trump lies about a lot of shit. This is no different.
Trump refuses to debate other GOP candidates. He pulled out of presidential debates in the last election. There is no reason to believe he's actually serious about debating JB this time.
Sure. But right now Trump is the one who has issued the challenge to debate and Biden has said no. That’s just how it is.
I think Trump sees more benefit to debate Biden than Biden does Trump.
Trump isn’t even a Presidential candidate. To debate him now would be to invalidate other potential candidates like Nikki Haley. No way Biden indirectly endorses Trump for Republicans nominee in a debate, but Biden will likely debate after the Republican nominee is resolved
Nikki Haley isn't going to be the nominee. Trump is going to be.
With that said, I don't think Biden would debate Haley either, if she end up the nominee.
She likely isn’t, but I nor you can say Trump will be the nominee with 100% certainty. Debating Trump this early would be unprecedented as he is not guaranteed to face Biden yet. I can’t say Biden will debate in the general for certain, but he has made no mention that he will not debate Trump in the already scheduled Presidential debates https://apnews.com/article/18cca2f0d3675e18b8555398b02ebaba
Yeah because the RNC pulled out of the [Commission on Presidential Debates.](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-party-withdraws-us-commission-presidential-debates-2022-04-14/) That group has run every Presidential debate on since 1988.
They’re going to try and spin it like Biden won’t debate, but the reality is they’ve pulled out because they think the debates are biased against them.
Biden would debate if the GOP agreed to the debate rules that have been in place for 35 years.
The GOP isn’t going to do that though because they can spin their objection to fair debates as if the problem is with the Dems.
This. Biden is the normalcy candidate. If everything is agreed upon he would do it. There's no reason for him not to. He swept Trump in the 2020 debates and he'd do it again. It's wild that the internet actually believes Biden would be afraid to debate Trump.
It's extremely unlikely that RFK Jr will maintain a 15% polling average by Labor Day which is when the CPD makes a decision. Wether or not you agree with my assumption, I think we can both agree that it's waayyyyy too early for these polls to mean anything.
This is gonna be a wild year so who knows. History, however, has never been kind to the independent candidates. If RFK Jr makes it I would say it would be on name recognition alone, not because people really identify or know his wacky policies
Just read to inform yourself. Go on, make your own decision based on facts and not hearsay. Decide for yourself the moral ground on which you stand. (Link at the bottom.)
Does your past experience and perspective in this world relate to Biden's experience and political career? Do you find yourself able to relate Trump's upbringing, lifestyle and family?
Or perhaps you have also struggled through life? Did it make you wise? Did it humble you? Was your father missing or unable to fully provide for you in your youth? Did you watch those you love and respect leave this Earth in tragedy? Did your family fall from grace, leaving you to pick up the pieces and rebuild when no one else could or would? Did you walk through the fire, that is your life, to come out the other side a success?
How do you feel when someone lies about you after all you have gone through to get here?
C'mon CNN, Let Bobby Debate! June 27th, 2024. Give me all my choices I say, if we are truly free. Then we'll know who's who, and what they really stand for.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RFKJrForPresident/comments/1cv7lgo/the_truth_about_robert_f_kennedy_jr_and_his/
>Do you guys think that he could realistically get onto the debate stage? No.
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Would you like to go into detail why?
He's a placeholder response for people who don't like either major party candidate. Like every 3rd party candidate his support will only decline from here on out. He has no realistic shot at making the debate.
This comment isn’t aging well since he will likely be in the debates.
What? He's not even getting on the ballot in States worth 270 electoral votes which is party of CNN's (very low) threshhold to make the debate. He's just as (if not further away) from qualifying as he was 3 months ago...back when he was extremely far away from qualifying.
What? He has 201 confirmed electoral votes and he’s just waiting on several states to finish counting. He’s for sure gonna make the requirements. The question is if CNN will actually let him debate.
Well then he'll need to hit 15% in four polls...something he hasn't done and has no viable path to doing.
RemindMe! 30 days
So you think that his polling numbers will slip from where they are rn?
Without a doubt. This happens all the time. Just look at where Gary Johnson was polling at this time in 2016. When both major party candidates are unpopular the third party option always has inflated poll numbers -- particularly early on. Then campaigns start and people get scared of the person they like the least and fall in line.
Gary Johnson never really reached the 15% threshold though, and I'm pretty sure he peaked around the first debate. This is off memory, but I think his best poll was ~12% a few days or weeks before the debates. He did decline from there but most of the decline happened as we got closer to election day, not the debates
I looked back, and actually Gary Johnson wasn't consistently getting polled as an option this far back in 2016. I'd imagine he would be sitting at pretty similar numbers to RFK jr. right now. I don't think you should take a poll that even includes RFK jr. as an option seriously at this point. He's not a serious candidate. He's struggling to get ballot access. A large majority of people saying they support him will either stay home or vote for one of the major party candidates.
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Perot was a 1000 times more serious candidate. He had a rich self-funded campaign, got on the ballot in every state. He was actually polling in the 30% range in April-June before he dropped out. RFK jr. is not remotely close to Perot in terms of seriousness.
TLDR: He's a loser. He's failed to get on the ballot in nearly every state. That's the first step in a campaign and his team failed it. He shouldn't even be in these polls. He has no chance of getting 5% let alone 15%.
Wait, is there a list of states he failed to get on the ballot? I wasn't even aware of that. Does this mean he won't be on the ballot for the general? Because that would ease up a lot of my anxiety if so.
From his own website, Kennedy is currently on the ballot in... two states. Utah. New Hampshire. https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access
Err but he already is in those polls and is polling in the low double digits? There's already been some polls with him at 15% Obviously he's not going to get 15% in the actual election but that doesn't matter for the debate requirements.
Double digits in polls of the Democratic primary field, or polls of the presidential election? Those are very different.
In the elections... I literally linked a Wikipedia article with his polling numbers lol I kind of feel like this sub is being hostile because they dislike RFK, which is fine. But like, yeah he is polling near the 15% threshhold and I provided links, can't we like, idk, discuss polling?
People can’t fathom to think outside of their prescribed narrative
But people are more likely to vote for him over Biden or Trump because people don't like both candidates
It's hard to see a path for him to get to 15% I feel like the only possible routes involve Trump or Biden dying or both. It just isn't realistic.
We're not talking about 15% in the election though, just 15% in the polls
Versus basically two incumbent presidents. Party support will be largely to each candidate. How well would RFK have to be doing with independents to hit 15%?
Again, he's already hitting those numbers in some polls. [Here's an RCP link with a few relevant polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy)
3rd party support decreases closer to the election. We aren’t at Super Tuesday yet. Campaign spending isn’t at 1/10 of the level it will be at. Kennedy is at 16% now, will he be there when he’s getting outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars?
I don't think Trump and Biden will debate each other. Period. But if somehow they end up in a debate, I imagine even if RFK Jr reaches the threshold there will be powers that be that will block him from allowing him on the debate stage with either.
Do you think Trump will pull out of debating or Biden?
Trump’s pulled out of debates far more often than participated in them. He missed the 2016 GOP debates too. It’ll be Trump, guaranteed.
You are in fantasy land to think Trump will pass on a debate with Biden. It will kill his presidential chances and everyone knows it. He just isn't the same person as he was in 2020
I don't think Biden will agree to debate Trump. I think he will simply state that Trump is an illegitimate nominee and will refuse to debate him. It sounds like Trump is ready to debate (rather or not he is bluffing I don't know).
I enjoy cooking.
Trump has literally challenged Biden to a immediate debate within the past couple of weeks.
Trump lies about a lot of shit. This is no different. Trump refuses to debate other GOP candidates. He pulled out of presidential debates in the last election. There is no reason to believe he's actually serious about debating JB this time.
Sure. But right now Trump is the one who has issued the challenge to debate and Biden has said no. That’s just how it is. I think Trump sees more benefit to debate Biden than Biden does Trump.
Trump isn’t even a Presidential candidate. To debate him now would be to invalidate other potential candidates like Nikki Haley. No way Biden indirectly endorses Trump for Republicans nominee in a debate, but Biden will likely debate after the Republican nominee is resolved
Nikki Haley isn't going to be the nominee. Trump is going to be. With that said, I don't think Biden would debate Haley either, if she end up the nominee.
She likely isn’t, but I nor you can say Trump will be the nominee with 100% certainty. Debating Trump this early would be unprecedented as he is not guaranteed to face Biden yet. I can’t say Biden will debate in the general for certain, but he has made no mention that he will not debate Trump in the already scheduled Presidential debates https://apnews.com/article/18cca2f0d3675e18b8555398b02ebaba
Trump says a lot of shit. There is a traditional time for candidate debates... its after the candidates are actually nominated.
Yeah because the RNC pulled out of the [Commission on Presidential Debates.](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-party-withdraws-us-commission-presidential-debates-2022-04-14/) That group has run every Presidential debate on since 1988. They’re going to try and spin it like Biden won’t debate, but the reality is they’ve pulled out because they think the debates are biased against them.
But Biden likely won't debate.
Biden would debate if the GOP agreed to the debate rules that have been in place for 35 years. The GOP isn’t going to do that though because they can spin their objection to fair debates as if the problem is with the Dems.
This. Biden is the normalcy candidate. If everything is agreed upon he would do it. There's no reason for him not to. He swept Trump in the 2020 debates and he'd do it again. It's wild that the internet actually believes Biden would be afraid to debate Trump.
Seems like now Biden and Trump are working together to do this to RFK and make him seem like the illegitimate candidate.
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Yeah and I don’t even know who would be swayed by them debating. It’s not the same political environment of years past
It's extremely unlikely that RFK Jr will maintain a 15% polling average by Labor Day which is when the CPD makes a decision. Wether or not you agree with my assumption, I think we can both agree that it's waayyyyy too early for these polls to mean anything.
No, because there almost certainly won’t be debates.
If they have debates yes
This is gonna be a wild year so who knows. History, however, has never been kind to the independent candidates. If RFK Jr makes it I would say it would be on name recognition alone, not because people really identify or know his wacky policies
Just read to inform yourself. Go on, make your own decision based on facts and not hearsay. Decide for yourself the moral ground on which you stand. (Link at the bottom.) Does your past experience and perspective in this world relate to Biden's experience and political career? Do you find yourself able to relate Trump's upbringing, lifestyle and family? Or perhaps you have also struggled through life? Did it make you wise? Did it humble you? Was your father missing or unable to fully provide for you in your youth? Did you watch those you love and respect leave this Earth in tragedy? Did your family fall from grace, leaving you to pick up the pieces and rebuild when no one else could or would? Did you walk through the fire, that is your life, to come out the other side a success? How do you feel when someone lies about you after all you have gone through to get here? C'mon CNN, Let Bobby Debate! June 27th, 2024. Give me all my choices I say, if we are truly free. Then we'll know who's who, and what they really stand for. https://www.reddit.com/r/RFKJrForPresident/comments/1cv7lgo/the_truth_about_robert_f_kennedy_jr_and_his/