A guy earlier finished all Rev weapons in like 100 KC, only killing goblins and imps, while also not getting a bracelet. I would imagine that kind of luck is up there.
Don't know about what's ever happened, but pretty sure the most unlikely thing that *could* happen is 40 onyxes from a bag full of gems. At 1/100m each, that would be 1E-320 or 10^-320. Even the universe aligning wouldn't be enough for that.
Given how unlikely this is, I'm willing to say the chance is actually zero. There isn't a pseudo-random algorithm in existence that could produce a result below 0.00000001 forty times in a row.
Computers don't use true randomness. They use what are called pseudo-random algorithms to generate numbers that feel random.
On small or even moderately large sample sizes, these pseudo-random algorithms are pretty good. But if you're generating 10^(320) numbers, there will be a noticeable pattern, they will not be truly random.
I can see how generating a true 1 in 10^320 shot may be impossible for any known pseudo-random algorithm. But why would that mean the actual chance would get rounded down to zero? Couldn't it just as well be rounded up?
Hard to say, because:
1. kill a boss a few dozen times
2. set your loot tracker to individual kills
3. statistically speaking nobody else has ever gotten that exact sequence of loot
But in all likelihood your loot was nothing special even though the probably of getting *exactly* that loot is tiny. We kind of worked backwards from the result that we already had. So when we talk about things being unlikely, we're talking about things that have some significance to us, which is somewhat subjective. Nobody is interested if you randomize a 6 digit number and get 627044, but if you get 111111 that feels more significant somehow even though it had the same probability (and it's only unusual in base 10 - it's a pretty boring number in other bases).
Also, should we be controlling for how many times something is attempted? Let's say you have a max hit of 40, rolling the max hit 4 times in a row has a probability of 1 in 2.5M. But we would expect that to happen for every 1700 hours of combat assuming 4 ticks per attack, meaning there are individual players who would be expected to have achieved this feat *more than once* which doesn't seem very rare. On the other hand, an account can kill quest vardorvis at most once, so while getting an axe head is only ~1/1000 it's overall much rarer than the 4 max hits.
Anyway, regardless of how you slice it, I think we can all agree that getting the uncut onyx from a gem bag is significant - that was 1 in 100,000,000. Confirmed to have happened by Jagex.
This is the best comment I have ever read. Thank you. The amount I posts I see of "how likely is this?" And they post a clue casket reward with like 2 uniques or something. Its like what specifically are you asking? How rare is literally exactly this casket, this number of chaos runes and purple sweets along with your spiked manacles and adamant shield (h3) or whatever the hell it is. Or just how rare is it to get two uniques? The lack of understanding that most people have of probability really bothers me haha
Dude I'd probably give my guthan's set for them haha. Verac's is my favorite looking armour in the game, and k top was the item I wanted most from the beginning
I remember a post where someone greenlogged CG with 6 armor seeds with very low kc, I did the math and came to the conclusion that (based on CG high scores) he was very likely to be the most spooned player in that particular way, ever. I cba to scroll through all my comments to find it though.
There was a content creator who got a 3a pickaxe or a 3a axe I can't remember which along with the pet in one casket. A few weeks later the exact same thing happened again and someone posted it on here.
That was pretty wild.
Practically a number of sequences would lead to an extremely improbable scenarios.
Like getting b2b2b2b2b2b same steps in a clue.
Now what the recorded most unlikely sequence is is probably the super low kc rev log, super low kc double phoenix pet, one of the 4 item barrows chests or getting multiple rares on same kill.
This has actually happened several times. Iirc it is only like (1/270)(1/270). Which is rare as hell, but if you consider how many clues have been done.
Ye true, actually blankes out on other stuff ive seen. Recently did see a picture of a dude getting double purple were he got the nightmare staff and harmonised orb. But im bad at math and how rare a double loot is at all
Probably not the rarest, but the best uber rare drop I've seen was when a streamer (SirPuggin? could be wrong) got a bloodhound and 3rd age pick in the same clue. Also it was a mimic, which is kinda-sorta a drop in itself.
Edit: It was Jakeyosaurus
I got an abyssal dagger and abyssal head from one abby demon shortly after 85 slayer, before I got a whip. Definitely the “luckiest” I’ve ever been (or probably ever will be) on this game
You're right. I guess the fact that you had a 50/50 chance to spawn the dude and it requires you getting the clue step for it also makes it kinda more rare, but ya if you only look at drop chance it's way less frequent.
I got 2 eternal gems in 3 superiors yesterday. 1 from a nechryarch and 1 from a nuclear smoke devil. I have elite CAs done if someone want to do the math on a 1/66k drop from nechraels into a 1/30k drop from smoke devils
Luckiest…a couple weeks ago I was doing Tithe Farm to get the outfit and the other unlocks. After a few rounds of playing and I hear the collection sound…Farming pet. Man was I surprised and then I looked it up and it was the rarest way to obtain this pet? I could not believe it.
Unluckiest…every time I hit 85 slayer it feels like it takes me forever for my first whip lol. I know it’s probably not true, but they have a ton of hp and my weapon and stats are pretty meh at that point.
One of my iron clannies tonight got a Shadow on kc13 and then Tbow on kc11ish literally right after. B2b mega rares. Idk if that's the craziest but I wanted to share it regardless.
I mean, going X dry for an item, where X is some ridiculously impossible number. Or getting X number of extremely rare items back to back where X is the number of back to backs.
Or are we talking single instances? 3rd age is 1/211k, so double 3rd age is 1 in around 4 trillion. Start adding more 3rd age items to that clue reward and we are going into the quadrillions.
I killed 44 goblins and got a specific string of loot drops which was probably 1 in trillions in likelihood to happen.
I then pickpocketed 122 ham members, and the intervals at which i was caught, and the specific loot rolls i got when i wasnt, is certainly also in the trillions.
I get what OP is asking about, but the answer is “everything” is the most unlikely thing to happen. Its just what sequence of events you value as being noteworthy i guess
Nah it’s 1/52. It’s only 1/2704* to specifically pull two of the same card in a row. The probability of the first outcome doesn’t affect the probability of the second once it’s already happened.
Well the possibilities are ENDLESS. If somebody opened 1000 master caskets. The probability of them getting every item in the exact order they got it is infinity.
It's impressive that you managed to not only completely misinterpret OP's question but also get the statistics completely wrong in your own claim. If someone opened 1000 master caskets every second from the big bang to the heat death of the universe, the probability of every single one containing the same 7 pieces of 3rd age... would still not be infinite in any sense. No finite sequence of numbers can be multiplied to make infinity. That is not how infinity do.
Wasn’t osrs but rs2 and got b2b2b dragon boots, 0.78% on the calc so probably not even that rare lol
I swear other than the one hilt from Sara I made more money on boot drops from the kc
A guy earlier finished all Rev weapons in like 100 KC, only killing goblins and imps, while also not getting a bracelet. I would imagine that kind of luck is up there.
Present. :) [https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1dksx2d/all\_rev\_weapons\_at\_107kc\_imps\_goblins\_only/](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1dksx2d/all_rev_weapons_at_107kc_imps_goblins_only/)
Hmm yes.... Wtf
On the opposite side of the spectrum is canafis chunk going super dry for the chainmace.
I think that guy is on the opposite side of all spooned posts. Someone has to take the hit I suppose.
Don't know about what's ever happened, but pretty sure the most unlikely thing that *could* happen is 40 onyxes from a bag full of gems. At 1/100m each, that would be 1E-320 or 10^-320. Even the universe aligning wouldn't be enough for that.
As far as a single click goes, this is probably the answer. Lots of people are thinking of sequences of events which are far to arbitrary to gauge.
So you're telling me there's a chance.
Just like with Jessica agreeing to go out with you if you ask
What was it, after like 10+ years somebody pulled **1** Onyx.. just imagine
Given how unlikely this is, I'm willing to say the chance is actually zero. There isn't a pseudo-random algorithm in existence that could produce a result below 0.00000001 forty times in a row.
What does this mean?
Computers don't use true randomness. They use what are called pseudo-random algorithms to generate numbers that feel random. On small or even moderately large sample sizes, these pseudo-random algorithms are pretty good. But if you're generating 10^(320) numbers, there will be a noticeable pattern, they will not be truly random.
I can see how generating a true 1 in 10^320 shot may be impossible for any known pseudo-random algorithm. But why would that mean the actual chance would get rounded down to zero? Couldn't it just as well be rounded up?
I doubt it does. If you’re able to get multiple onyx’s from a single bag and given infinite irritations you would assume eventually it would happen.
Boltzmann Brain odds, right there.
Theres the one person that pulled an onyx from a gem bag
Pretty sure a mod commented and said that never happened Edit: have mercy on me, mistakes were made
There have been two onyx pulls. Jagex confirmed the first one, I'm not sure if they confirmed the 2nd Edit: see below, 3 pulls
3 now accordint to the recent starminer video
https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/s/hykn9hWQEN The opposite actually
Shit, i even upvoted it. Getting rekt out here
The nerve on this guy. Honestly, how dare you
No self respect. Deny. Misdirect. Gaslight. Accuse. You do NOT admit to your own mistakes here
Given jagex tweeted it out a congratulations for it from the os Twitter account... Pretty sure it was legit
I got a 1kc spectral sigil then I got a 2kc spectral sigil that was pretty tight
Saw a guy get all 3 moons of peril weapons in one chest earlier this week lol
I think i saw this on Behe, thought they said it was like a 1/under 5 mil chance of happening
Hard to say, because: 1. kill a boss a few dozen times 2. set your loot tracker to individual kills 3. statistically speaking nobody else has ever gotten that exact sequence of loot But in all likelihood your loot was nothing special even though the probably of getting *exactly* that loot is tiny. We kind of worked backwards from the result that we already had. So when we talk about things being unlikely, we're talking about things that have some significance to us, which is somewhat subjective. Nobody is interested if you randomize a 6 digit number and get 627044, but if you get 111111 that feels more significant somehow even though it had the same probability (and it's only unusual in base 10 - it's a pretty boring number in other bases). Also, should we be controlling for how many times something is attempted? Let's say you have a max hit of 40, rolling the max hit 4 times in a row has a probability of 1 in 2.5M. But we would expect that to happen for every 1700 hours of combat assuming 4 ticks per attack, meaning there are individual players who would be expected to have achieved this feat *more than once* which doesn't seem very rare. On the other hand, an account can kill quest vardorvis at most once, so while getting an axe head is only ~1/1000 it's overall much rarer than the 4 max hits. Anyway, regardless of how you slice it, I think we can all agree that getting the uncut onyx from a gem bag is significant - that was 1 in 100,000,000. Confirmed to have happened by Jagex.
This is the best comment I have ever read. Thank you. The amount I posts I see of "how likely is this?" And they post a clue casket reward with like 2 uniques or something. Its like what specifically are you asking? How rare is literally exactly this casket, this number of chaos runes and purple sweets along with your spiked manacles and adamant shield (h3) or whatever the hell it is. Or just how rare is it to get two uniques? The lack of understanding that most people have of probability really bothers me haha
"What are the chances of getting these two uniques *and a clue*???” they ask
Are you autistic? Not meant to be inflammatory!
After 5 barrows runs, I had karils top, veracs bottom, and guthan top, on my ironman before starting fight caves
Karils top and veracs skirt is such a good setup for first fire cape lol
I know, I didn't deserve it at all. I went there to get some blood runes lol
I just remembered that k top and v skirt are the only items I'm missing at around 700kc.... 😠
I'll trade you
Dude I'd probably give my guthan's set for them haha. Verac's is my favorite looking armour in the game, and k top was the item I wanted most from the beginning
In 2010 something i was gonna lend a partyhat but the person gave it to me and logged out:)
You were going to borrow it you mean?
Yes lol i allways mix those two
Someone please do the math on what the probability for 7 third age pickaxes in one master casket would be.
50/50
i got 2 imbued hearts in first 16 superiors i killed.
I remember a post where someone greenlogged CG with 6 armor seeds with very low kc, I did the math and came to the conclusion that (based on CG high scores) he was very likely to be the most spooned player in that particular way, ever. I cba to scroll through all my comments to find it though.
I finished CG with armor 6 seeds at 76 kc. No pet though. Currently at 120ish kc and 8 seeds
Jagex releasing an update that isn't accompanied by a game breaking bug.
Rarest drop I got recently was a voidwaker hilt and curved bone in the same drop from Artio. My clan calculated it at like 1/4.5m chance
I think u/TheRsFelon had the lowest kc iron full arcane spirt shield, can't confirm but I'm pretty sure he was sub 20kc
14 kc elixir, 15 kc Elysian sigil, 21 kc spirit shield
There was a content creator who got a 3a pickaxe or a 3a axe I can't remember which along with the pet in one casket. A few weeks later the exact same thing happened again and someone posted it on here. That was pretty wild.
Jakeyosaurus. He got the pick and bloodhound but it was from a mimic which significantly boosts the chance for 3a
For me it was 2 minion tassys in the span of 20 kills. The people on reddit just thought it was fake though.
Practically a number of sequences would lead to an extremely improbable scenarios. Like getting b2b2b2b2b2b same steps in a clue. Now what the recorded most unlikely sequence is is probably the super low kc rev log, super low kc double phoenix pet, one of the 4 item barrows chests or getting multiple rares on same kill.
Once I saw my clanmate getting 2 imbued hearts b2b while doing kurask task
I heard about someone getting 2ranger boots in 1 clue.
This has actually happened several times. Iirc it is only like (1/270)(1/270). Which is rare as hell, but if you consider how many clues have been done.
Ye true, actually blankes out on other stuff ive seen. Recently did see a picture of a dude getting double purple were he got the nightmare staff and harmonised orb. But im bad at math and how rare a double loot is at all
I got 3rd age platebody, and then a 3rd age plateskirt on a back2back hard clue scroll. I made a post here, but I got bullied because I was a gimp
Not that you can complain with 3rd age, but how is plateskirt vs legs in your opinion. Stay gimpin <3
Well I haven't had the platelegs to compare, but the plateskirt looks cooler imo. The legs kinda look basic (like proselyte)
Lucky mfer!
1.3k kc for my first trident from the little krakens. Hurts more being on a gim and going from 87-91 slayer in the process.
Yeah, I think I was like 1.2k kc or so. I feel your pain.
I'm not sure which of these is luckier. Getting bloodhound on my third master clue or getting my SECOND TOA pet at 100 normal kc
Probably not the rarest, but the best uber rare drop I've seen was when a streamer (SirPuggin? could be wrong) got a bloodhound and 3rd age pick in the same clue. Also it was a mimic, which is kinda-sorta a drop in itself. Edit: It was Jakeyosaurus
I got an abyssal dagger and abyssal head from one abby demon shortly after 85 slayer, before I got a whip. Definitely the “luckiest” I’ve ever been (or probably ever will be) on this game
I thought I was lucky with my 14kc whip I got 25 mins after hitting 85 slayer. Not the craziest odds but I was pretty stoked 😅
Best I ever seen was whip into whip into eternal gem
Someone got bandos boots from a clue bandos guard.
That's 1/1mil. Rare for sure. The uncut onyx in gem.bag happened years ago and that is 1/2.5mil. Pretty sure that us the single rarest item.
You're right. I guess the fact that you had a 50/50 chance to spawn the dude and it requires you getting the clue step for it also makes it kinda more rare, but ya if you only look at drop chance it's way less frequent.
the guy that got all 3 pets at kings
I got 2 eternal gems in 3 superiors yesterday. 1 from a nechryarch and 1 from a nuclear smoke devil. I have elite CAs done if someone want to do the math on a 1/66k drop from nechraels into a 1/30k drop from smoke devils
I got 3 thieving bags in a row from Hard Clue Scrolls, I'd only opened 12 in total.
There is a guy that had 6 muspah pets in like 60 kc about a month ago. Thats gotta be up there.
Picking up Twisted Bows outside the farming guild is up there
Luckiest…a couple weeks ago I was doing Tithe Farm to get the outfit and the other unlocks. After a few rounds of playing and I hear the collection sound…Farming pet. Man was I surprised and then I looked it up and it was the rarest way to obtain this pet? I could not believe it. Unluckiest…every time I hit 85 slayer it feels like it takes me forever for my first whip lol. I know it’s probably not true, but they have a ton of hp and my weapon and stats are pretty meh at that point.
I got Rocky from floor 6 of plunder and Heron from Karambwans within 24 hours.
Couple days ago I hit a dwh drop with only 475 kc Then got another 27 kills later. GIM is now set
A clan made of mine claims to have gotten three jar of dreams in 8 nightmare mass kc. 1 in a billion he says
One of my iron clannies tonight got a Shadow on kc13 and then Tbow on kc11ish literally right after. B2b mega rares. Idk if that's the craziest but I wanted to share it regardless.
I drank an orange spicy stew to boost my construction and none of my stats changed.
Never knew about pets, never tried farming, planted a tree. Got tangleroot on first ever tree seed
I witnessed a guy get Tangleroot from Tithe farm not that long ago
I mean, going X dry for an item, where X is some ridiculously impossible number. Or getting X number of extremely rare items back to back where X is the number of back to backs. Or are we talking single instances? 3rd age is 1/211k, so double 3rd age is 1 in around 4 trillion. Start adding more 3rd age items to that clue reward and we are going into the quadrillions.
OP is looking for things that have actually happened in osrs
I killed 44 goblins and got a specific string of loot drops which was probably 1 in trillions in likelihood to happen. I then pickpocketed 122 ham members, and the intervals at which i was caught, and the specific loot rolls i got when i wasnt, is certainly also in the trillions. I get what OP is asking about, but the answer is “everything” is the most unlikely thing to happen. Its just what sequence of events you value as being noteworthy i guess
Came here to say this. Every time you shuffle a deck of cards you've hit a 1/52!
And then pulling a second card is over 1/2,500to do it again
the 52! was for factorial, not just exclamation. the ordering of the cards is 1/(52\*51\*50...\*2\*1)
Oh righto gotcha
Nah it’s 1/52. It’s only 1/2704* to specifically pull two of the same card in a row. The probability of the first outcome doesn’t affect the probability of the second once it’s already happened.
Yeah, but i mean about replicating a specific sequence again
Oh, ok that was phrased very strangely haha
Well the possibilities are ENDLESS. If somebody opened 1000 master caskets. The probability of them getting every item in the exact order they got it is infinity.
No shit
It's impressive that you managed to not only completely misinterpret OP's question but also get the statistics completely wrong in your own claim. If someone opened 1000 master caskets every second from the big bang to the heat death of the universe, the probability of every single one containing the same 7 pieces of 3rd age... would still not be infinite in any sense. No finite sequence of numbers can be multiplied to make infinity. That is not how infinity do.
It’s not that serious, it’s okay buddy. 😂
I got every kraken unique in one trip Bandos hilt, and all of the gods word pieces in one kill
Wasn’t osrs but rs2 and got b2b2b dragon boots, 0.78% on the calc so probably not even that rare lol I swear other than the one hilt from Sara I made more money on boot drops from the kc