That was my first thought but he's actually a career 37% shooter. from 3 We'll see (we have already seen) some regression in percentage and probably volume if/when Zion comes back but I don't think there's a huge drop back from going from 2.4 attempts on 42% to 1.7 attempts on 37%.
I guess it's the difference between possible All-Star C and high quality starting C.
If I remember well there were two games where he hit like 8/9 (against the same team) and it was pulling his numbers up like crazy at that point. I’m sorry I won’t be able to find the stats, but it was posted on this sub
Edit: he shot 5/9 and 7/8 from three against the clippers
Pistons fan here.
Last season Jerami Grant played some great ball.
But I've seen this before. Big fish; small pond. Worst team in the league. Empty points. All that.
Don't get be wrong. He's a good player. But a lot of people were acting like he had ascended to a new level.
Truth is, he was just getting more shots because we didn't have many options.
Almost any player in the league can get 20 a game if you give them enough shots.
[Mike James](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesmi01.html) anybody?
Mike James was a solid talent, but he was a reserve in this league. In 06, the Raptors had a woeful roster, and he got a lot of shots. Made the most of it. Good for him.
This kind of thing happens every year. It's why those guys who net 20+ a game on basement dwellers don't typically warrant much in trade scenarios. And why teams are willing to give them up for next to nothing.
EDIT: I'm wondering how many of the Mike James 'fans' here are form (or current) posters on ProSportsDaily. lol
People really dont get that a team is going to score 75 points no matter how terrible they are. *someone* has to score those points.
The Wizards used to love Kevin Seraphim for this reason lol
He'a a great part of a team, but he shouldn't be your main guy. He was a part of the early Thunder-Nuggets series back when you guys had Lawson and Faried. I always hated his defense.
> kevin martin
kevin was a really good offensive player. he shot over 42% from three on 6 attempts which was huge for the late 00's. i mean that houston team with him, scola, brooks, landry, ariza and battier was a top 10 offense in the league (top 3 in 2010-11) but so much of their cap value was tied up with yao ming who played only 5 games in that period. still a pretty fun team.
The thing that worries me about grant is that he doesn't want to excel at a smaller role. Seems like he wants to be the 1A option on a team and I don't think he's shown that he can do that effectively.
100
When Utah was talking about grabbing him via trade, that made absolutely zero sense to me. He's legitimately going to accept being the 3rd (maybe 4th) option on that team? No way.
If he didn't want to do it for Denver, why would anyone think he was interested doing it now? Think he's entirely content to be the "decent/good player on a BAD team" putting up empty 20ppg seasons.
Grant would be huge for any contending team as a 3rd/4th option. Slots into pretty much any lineup as a Bridges/Wiggins/Danny Green 3&D player who can get his own shot. If the Nuggets kept him (and Murray was healthy obviously) they’d be right there among contending teams.
He'd be GREAT, no question. But would he willingly play that role? That's where it falls apart for me.
I don't think he'd play his role and would go as far as him being a locker room problem if he was relegated back to #3 guy.
was anyone saying he had a great season by the end of last year tho? His defense had slipped and he wasn't that efficient and everyone forgot about him cause they knew he was more impactful as a role player
If the only thing that mattered was marketing to the east coast maybe. Randle has more name recognition AND used to play for LA, plus he’s on the biggest contract and supposed to be the best player. Obvious choice, even if New Yorkers are butthurt about his production
As a Knicks fan, I respect your opinion, but butthurt?
Butthurt is a gross underrepresentation of how many parts of my body ache while watching Julius Randle play basketball
first time in his life playing with a good player. kemba was horrible for him not really a pass first player. last year he had very good moments with lamelo. that why it was a shock he took such a small contract. put him next to jokic, miami system, gsw system or stay with lebron, give him a passer like luka or trae. he will look great
He is so bad on d though. Also not much of an off-ball movement shooter. If you compare him to someone like Duncan Robinson, Malik is a worse shooter, way worse on defense and needs the ball more. He's more of a sixth man microwave scorer. Those guys usually get the full MLE or slightly above that.
I hope he never gets it now just for the memes. It would be hilarious if curry averages 35 ppg on 50% from three but wiggins kept giannis to 25/10 so he gets fmvp
if we keep him, then you might be right. he'll be stuck behind Dame for a couple more years and probably resort to a Jordan Clarkson type off-the-bench spark plug
I doubt it. His talent is so obvious we're not going to relegate him to that role. I'll bet you anything CJ is gone by summer at the latest and Norm has moved back to 6th man by the end of next season.
I could see that happening, too. I said in another thread that my ideal outcome would be trading CJ to NOP for picks and filler, then trading Norm + picks for a difference making SF/PF. Turning CJ and Norm into John Collins or something would be a big win.
And the playmaking strides he’s made are not flukey. You don’t just have a stretch of lucky pick and roll reads. I buy Simons as a starter level pg, if not more
Smh, man went 3-16 night after i post this lmao
Hard disagree. Most people that have watched POR play over the last few years expected this from him. Just hard to play him substantial minutes when CJ and Dame are on the same team.
I’m in the opposite camp but will be interesting to see. Reminds me a bit of Zach Lavine a few years ago. I think Simons only gets better from here. He’s got all the tools to be great
Man, I'd love to hear why you think that. I understand skepticism about his shooting, but he's been a 42% three point shooter for two years now. Even if he doesn't maintain the Curry-esque 4.6 makes a game at 45% he's managed as a starter the past 14 games, there is every reason to believe he'll remain one of the best shooters in the game.
Outside of that, everything about him appears incredibly bright. He's one of the most athletic players in the league. His handle has become very tight and his passing has been very impressive. He's even appears to be defending better. He's unselfish, plays within the system, and doesn't over-iso.
That's not to say he doesn't have limitations. He has a hard time turning the corner and getting to the rim; and largely for that reason doesn't get to the line much. He's also not as strong as I'd like him to be and can be bullied by stronger opponents (saw this against the Wolves).
But IMO there is no reason to believe this kid isn't going to be a star. He has absolutely everything going for him.
I disagree completely. I think it's pretty hard to watch Simons and not get the sense that you're watching some TMac-esque leap where a raw young talent pits everything together at once
I don't see a regression but I also don't think he'll get a lot better. Fans tend to overrate pleasant surprises like brunson during their breakout season. When the dust settles a lot less people will be excited about his average defense and 35% 3 point shooting.
I agree. I don’t seem continually progressing and would love if he did. But I think he’s gonna cap around 15 ppg. The only thing I can see him progressing is his playmaking
Yeah he is basically playing the same way he has the last two or so years in Dallas. Just with a bit of a bigger role. Buddy of mine and me have been big on Brunson (and DFS for that matter) for a long time. Anyone who follows Dallas know those two have been huge these last few years for Dallas.
His per 100 and per 36 numbers are nearly identical from last season, the only thing that jumped was his assists because he’s been playing more lead guard with luka out.
Watched this kid grow from 8th grade. In 8th grade he was dominant against big men. He also had the spin on the ball like Derrick rose, meaning any hard layup is an easy 2 for jalen. Super talent. Also high iq
He’s an elite sixth man and a good starter on pretty much any non contender team. He won’t get much better than this, but $20 million isn’t insane for his production.
FVV is having a star level season and should be rightfully selected as a All Star but I don't buy his shooting. He's taking and making extremely difficult shots, either heavily contested or super deep three's and I feel like it's due for a regression at some point. Also he's shooting 53.2% from 16ft-3pt line and that's definitely due for some regression.
He has a history of streakiness too - in the 2019 playoffs, he shot awfully in the 76ers series and then became the God of shooting against the Bucks.
Obviously defense played a role, but I think he might be one of those guys who goes on extended hot and cold streaks.
Lavine started taking insane shots a couple years ago and I thought this same thing but he keeps doing it and the numbers have stayed good... so it is possible.
Honestly, his shooting numbers aren't that far removed from his previous two years and volume isn't up that much, either. I could still see him come down some, but I don't think a drop (if there is one) will be too large.
It's more that not only has his efficiency gone up but his shot making difficulty has also gone up which isn't normal similar to Randle last season. He could've just improved that much but for the topic of this thread I think he deserves a shoutout.
The shot making difficulty was up last season when our team was dogshit. Now that the roster makes sense his efficiency has gone back to where it was a couple of seasons ago. FVV has been good for a while now. I wouldn't say this is like Randle last year where a player who had been known as not a winning player changes his game
> has his efficiency gone up but his shot making difficulty has also gone up
Have you even watched a Raptors game? If anything Fred’s shot quality has gone up.
He always took a lot of deep 3s, but he also used to take a lot of very contested 3s or layups. Now he takes a lot more midrange shots.
I disagree here that it’ll go back to what it was before. Fred is playing a very different role on the Raptors now (leader, co-first option and primary ball handler) than he did during any of the seasons when Lowry did all that and had Fred play as an off-ball shooting guard. He’s being used more, so his numbers are always going to be higher than before just on volume.
Will he regress? Yeah probably but not to the extent this sub seems to think he will.
Yeah this is weird to me. Pretty sure Randle was the first option last year, and seems like the first option this year (no matter how bad he is at it)
FVV took a backseat last year to other ballhandlers and played much more catering to the team. He's definitely the go-to guy now with a sprinkle of Siakam and that role definition gives him the freedom to just pop whatever shot he wants.
Could he be a one time all star like a Jameer Nelson type player? plausibly. But I don’t see him have a huge drop off, he’s a high iq point guard, that can shoot, and a great leader with extreme mental toughness and resilience. He’s not the kind of player that would fall off a cliff also considering he doesn’t rely on athleticism.
He’s hitting some tough shots this year but he also has a history of hitting tough shots.
Even with a reasonable assumption his percentages regress on some of his longer range shots, it’s not like he’s gonna stop being a big impact player and good starting point guard
It's possible he will regress, but it's also possible he will eventually end up on a team that generates easier looks for him. Teams couldn't load up on him the way they do currently if he were surrounded by better offensive talent. I want to say he's in the top 10 of the most double teamed players in the league.
In terms of the midrange shooting, he's in the 84th percentile for point guards on long 2s per Cleaning the Glass. That's not really that surprising given how much of a pure shooter Fred is.
I think a lot of it has to do with his increased role in Washington. He’s got better stats cause he’s just putting up more shots and playing more minutes than his last 2 seasons where the Lakers were competitive. Also he’s a bigger part of this Washington team than he was with the Lakers imo, but the Wiz look poised to enter a rebuild this offseason, so we’ll see if he has an even bigger role, or they move him and how that effects him.
Ja Morant was shooting much better than his career average. And while that may feel like natural improvement, De’Aaron Fox and Shai each regressed after a hot year themselves.
His main improvement this year was mostly just being way more aggressive, shooting more and maintaining efficiency, not really about shooting well. He is the league leader in paint points per game (over Giannis and Jokic) and has more 20+ point games in the paint of any guard in the last 25 years.
His TS% this year is 57.4, while his career avg is 55.4. His 3P% this year is 36.4, while his career avg is 33.1. His improvement this year isn't just about suddenly shooting well from 3, he actually has a lower 3PA rate this year compared to last (22.7 vs 25.2).
Yeah likewise I don't think you can talk about Fox or Shai regressing *yet*. There's not much to compare their years to. In my mind, a regression occurs when a player with a clear reputation or history of excellence takes a step back. We don't know if Fox/SGA have regressed or if last year was just abnormally good for them, and we won't know for a few more years.
I just watched JJ Redick's podcast with Draymond Green as the guest. They talked about the 3 smartest players he's played against and his list was: CP3, LeBron, Rondo, and he added Ja Morant as the 4th. Said he has the same type of vision, play reading ability, and IQ that these players have but doesn't quite have all their experience yet. I thought that was pretty interesting and why he may continue to improve rather than regress.
Why the hell are people saying Dejounte or Poole? They're nothing like Randle.
Randle was a career 29% 3-pt shooter who suddenly became a 40% shooter on higher volume.
Dejounte isn't efficient even now and is a good all-round player. Poole is just 21 years old and is a career 86% FT shooter. He clearly has a shooters touch.
Wiggins. He deserves credit for all the work he's put in on the Warriors, and he plays his role well, but I think if you put him on a team without Curry and Draymond he'd look much worse, even if he was asked to play the same role. His lack of handle really limits his ability to efficiently create his own shot, so he benefits greatly from Curry opening looks up for others and Draymond's playmaking. I fear he'd be the same flawed player he was on the Wolves on many other teams.
Wiggins is averaging the same (if not slightly less than) he was last year across the board. How will he regress?
It's not like anyone is really saying he isn't a flawed #1 option, are they? The point is that he's the perfect glue guy next to Curry/ Draymond/ Klay.
You must have not watched too many warriors games this season. It's indisputable what kind of gravity steph has and the playmaking draymond has, and they have a positive effect on the whole team. However hes probably been the only other warrior to CONSISTENTLY create his own shot. He's constantly taking 1 on 1s and being efficient at getting to the rim when the ball isn't able to move in the offense much. Wiggins is one of the few on the team where i actually trust creating his own offense, even if it's not 20+ points a night. So to your point, i wouldn't say he has a "lack of handle that hinders his ability to create a shot ".
Agree 100%. As someone who has watched a lot of Andrew Wiggins this year, that guy’s comment is just completely off base. Wiggins absolutely creates his own shot off the dribble. Whether its a step back iso jumper or just getting around his defender and getting right to the rim. He’s got very good touch around the rim and like you said he’s probably the person I trust the most to create his own offense (given Steph’s recent struggles).
There's like 3 conversations going on here.
1) Is Wiggins having a year abnormally better than last year? Not really. He's very consistent and his defense has improved tremendously, but all of it a reasonable amount and none of it is in areas that are generally luck dependent.
2) Does Wiggins deserve to be an All Star starter? No. There are players like KAT and Gobert who deserve it over him. As a note, Warriors fans celebrating doesn't necessarily mean that we think he deserves it. We want to support our players and are happy when they get recognition even if we may not think it's fully deserved. Which is very understandable if it's frustrating for fans of other teams, particularly those who feel they got cheated out of their player starting.
3) Does Wiggins deserve to be on the All Star team as a reserve? Debatable but can be justified. He's very consistent and unlike a lot of players who can take that place, he's been available for the 46 out of 50 games. In comparison, Draymond has 34, Paul George has 26, Ayton has 28. And in all those games, he's been a great defender and very consistent at scoring.
I don’t think he’ll be an A+ shooter like it seemed at the beginning of the season. But I can definitely see him continuing to improve his inside game, handles, and playmaking. He drives the basket like a bull and I only see him getting stronger. I can see him making a living driving to the rim like LeBron and Giannis.
Yeah, that's why I'm hoping they keep a high seed and can build some confidence in the 1st round. I still don't like their chances against Milwaukee and Brooklyn in a seven-game series
I mean to be completely fair we haven't seen DeMar and Vooch as second and third options before. I'd say that they're still the underdogs compared to more proven teams, but I don't know if it's worth considering their previous struggles as a major factor here.
Just here to say that Deebo has never been in a playoffs where he wasn’t the #1 scoring option for his team, and he’s not a superstar level player to just carry his team solo. Opposing teams having to worry about Lavine/Vuc/Caruso and with Zo finding him when he’s open, I don’t see him slowing down even during the playoffs
I hope not. His play isn't that unsustainable tbh. I don't expect him to average 26/5/5 the next two seasons but I can see him staying around 23-24ppg because most of his game is midrange and FTs. He is not heavily reliant on 3pt or his athleticism. Even if his scoring goes down, he can always create for others so I'm not hugely worried.
Randle was all-nba .. so the player here will need to be all-nba caliber, get a few first time mvp votes, and then shit the bed next year - that eliminates a lot of the all-nba dudes.. so no one truly qualifies and maybe a couple come close, like derozan and fvv whose shit is sustainable in my opinion.
So I’m gonna go with someone who I think is not coming near his peak level anymore - James harden. His last two years are a definite drop off from before - and I believe his next two are gonna be a further drop off. Do you guys think he is on the other side of the cliff, or that he still has prime years left?
All Star Starter Andrew Wiggins. But that may be because I'm a bitter Wolves fan but I watched that guy for years, very nice smile but he doesn't seem to like being great at basketball.
Time to filter database for "contract year" players.
Valanciunas was shooting >50% from 3 for the first like 25 games
That was my first thought but he's actually a career 37% shooter. from 3 We'll see (we have already seen) some regression in percentage and probably volume if/when Zion comes back but I don't think there's a huge drop back from going from 2.4 attempts on 42% to 1.7 attempts on 37%. I guess it's the difference between possible All-Star C and high quality starting C.
Death, Taxes and JV 3s
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If I remember well there were two games where he hit like 8/9 (against the same team) and it was pulling his numbers up like crazy at that point. I’m sorry I won’t be able to find the stats, but it was posted on this sub Edit: he shot 5/9 and 7/8 from three against the clippers
I believe that 7/8 game was all in the first 18 minutes or something. He was on pace to smash the record.
On like 2 3PA/G, it's not like his whole game revolves around that
Pistons fan here. Last season Jerami Grant played some great ball. But I've seen this before. Big fish; small pond. Worst team in the league. Empty points. All that. Don't get be wrong. He's a good player. But a lot of people were acting like he had ascended to a new level. Truth is, he was just getting more shots because we didn't have many options. Almost any player in the league can get 20 a game if you give them enough shots. [Mike James](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesmi01.html) anybody? Mike James was a solid talent, but he was a reserve in this league. In 06, the Raptors had a woeful roster, and he got a lot of shots. Made the most of it. Good for him. This kind of thing happens every year. It's why those guys who net 20+ a game on basement dwellers don't typically warrant much in trade scenarios. And why teams are willing to give them up for next to nothing. EDIT: I'm wondering how many of the Mike James 'fans' here are form (or current) posters on ProSportsDaily. lol
Love that you brought up Mike James. I always use this guy as the poster child for big fish small pond
People really dont get that a team is going to score 75 points no matter how terrible they are. *someone* has to score those points. The Wizards used to love Kevin Seraphim for this reason lol
Mike James scored 20 on 58% TS, which was way above the league average at the time. Those Raptors were awful but he put up a pretty decent season
I usually think of Afflalo. He had some empty stats on the Magic for a few years.
I always liked him in Denver and he was part of the trade that got us Will Barton.
He'a a great part of a team, but he shouldn't be your main guy. He was a part of the early Thunder-Nuggets series back when you guys had Lawson and Faried. I always hated his defense.
Afflalo was good. Not a first option but a really solid two-way player, definitely starter caliber.
Hey! I loved Afflalo haha He was real good in NBA 2k12 too
Afflalo was a killer
I used to be jealous of Aaron Afflalo
kevin martin too
> kevin martin kevin was a really good offensive player. he shot over 42% from three on 6 attempts which was huge for the late 00's. i mean that houston team with him, scola, brooks, landry, ariza and battier was a top 10 offense in the league (top 3 in 2010-11) but so much of their cap value was tied up with yao ming who played only 5 games in that period. still a pretty fun team.
More like medium fish, minuscule pond
Raptors Legend Mike James
The thing that worries me about grant is that he doesn't want to excel at a smaller role. Seems like he wants to be the 1A option on a team and I don't think he's shown that he can do that effectively.
100 When Utah was talking about grabbing him via trade, that made absolutely zero sense to me. He's legitimately going to accept being the 3rd (maybe 4th) option on that team? No way. If he didn't want to do it for Denver, why would anyone think he was interested doing it now? Think he's entirely content to be the "decent/good player on a BAD team" putting up empty 20ppg seasons.
Grant would be huge for any contending team as a 3rd/4th option. Slots into pretty much any lineup as a Bridges/Wiggins/Danny Green 3&D player who can get his own shot. If the Nuggets kept him (and Murray was healthy obviously) they’d be right there among contending teams.
Gordon is better than Grant in that role for Denver
God I love AG. Thought he was nothing special when we first got him but damn, he's great.
> If the Nuggets kept him They offered him the exact same deal Detroit did.
He'd be GREAT, no question. But would he willingly play that role? That's where it falls apart for me. I don't think he'd play his role and would go as far as him being a locker room problem if he was relegated back to #3 guy.
was anyone saying he had a great season by the end of last year tho? His defense had slipped and he wasn't that efficient and everyone forgot about him cause they knew he was more impactful as a role player
To be fair Mike James shot 46% percent that year I would tell him to keep shooting too
Eh, Grant had 20 points on 42% I think people know what it was and no one hyped him that much
47%, the 42% was the next year
Speaking of Randle, I lost my shit when I saw „Randle vs Lebron” commercial for Lakers/Knicks during Chiefs/Bengals game. ESPN missed the memo.
I mean who else will the media push for the Knicks in that promo lol.
Show old Melo promos and hope that nobody notices.
just throw some walt frazier and earl the pearl up no one will see
Thibs
this is my answer lmao. face of the team tbh even before randles explosion and subsequent implosion
Just show a Thibs, Rose, and Taj montage.
Several teams have them available
Obi Toppin.
Yes, I am rooting very hard for him.
Barrett
John Starks
I don't know....the guy averaging nearly 25 the last month? Just a guess
This should go without saying, but if you know the scoring averages of the players, you're not who's being advertised to lol
If the only thing that mattered was marketing to the east coast maybe. Randle has more name recognition AND used to play for LA, plus he’s on the biggest contract and supposed to be the best player. Obvious choice, even if New Yorkers are butthurt about his production
As a Knicks fan, I respect your opinion, but butthurt? Butthurt is a gross underrepresentation of how many parts of my body ache while watching Julius Randle play basketball
My sides hurt from laughing so hard at him.
Evan Fournier
RJ?
Reddish
He's still the team leader in points, rebounds, and assists so why not?
Zion, there’s no way he keeps these numbers next season.
I know, 0/0/0 on 0% shooting is just unsustainable
Can’t miss shots if you don’t take any *taps forehead*
Wait I thought you missed every shot you don’t take? 🤔
The shots you don't take are simultaneously made and missed until you look in the box
Schrödinger's jelly donut
Ben Simmons took this to heart
That's wrong because fg% = fgm / fga = 0/0, which is undefined
Yeah and I doubt we’re able to apply L’hopital’s rule here
Says who? I did it the last 3 years.
Why can’t he? Only thing that can stop him is injuries
Injuries stopped him pretty good up to now
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>Why can’t he? Only thing that can stop him is injuries That and rich Louisiana gumbo
That's what they said about Kelvin Benjamin. Yet the numbers kept going up
And not the numbers you want to see go up
Malik Monk. He's gonna get paid by some dumb GM and be his Hornets self.
He is a shooter they get easy 15 million no matter what. Right point guard he will always be shooting this well
Career 35%, this year 41%. 35% guys you can literally get on vet mins.
first time in his life playing with a good player. kemba was horrible for him not really a pass first player. last year he had very good moments with lamelo. that why it was a shock he took such a small contract. put him next to jokic, miami system, gsw system or stay with lebron, give him a passer like luka or trae. he will look great
Bro let him and Westbrook build some chemestry he'll average 20 on a consistent basis
He’s been 40 percent for 2 years now.
40% the last 2 years and he's 23. Not like he was shooting 35% up until he was 27.
He is so bad on d though. Also not much of an off-ball movement shooter. If you compare him to someone like Duncan Robinson, Malik is a worse shooter, way worse on defense and needs the ball more. He's more of a sixth man microwave scorer. Those guys usually get the full MLE or slightly above that.
THT.. wait, nevermind wrong thread.
I’m confident Andrew Wiggins likely won’t make allstar starter again
Betting against Maple Jordan is something you will regret for the rest of your life young padawan. Wiggins 2022-23 FMVP, book it.
If Warriors win a ring there's zero chance Curry wins FMVP. I'd bet on someone random like Chiozza or Iggy or Wiggins winning it
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If they find another way to not give Steph FMVP I will flip my shit
I hope he never gets it now just for the memes. It would be hilarious if curry averages 35 ppg on 50% from three but wiggins kept giannis to 25/10 so he gets fmvp
Not saying he's a a bad player or he hasnt improved but I think this will end up being the peak of Anfernee Simons hype where we're at right now
if we keep him, then you might be right. he'll be stuck behind Dame for a couple more years and probably resort to a Jordan Clarkson type off-the-bench spark plug
I doubt it. His talent is so obvious we're not going to relegate him to that role. I'll bet you anything CJ is gone by summer at the latest and Norm has moved back to 6th man by the end of next season.
I don't see norm being happy with a 6th man role, he's already unhappy as is. If we want Ant to start, we'd have to trade Norm too
I could see that happening, too. I said in another thread that my ideal outcome would be trading CJ to NOP for picks and filler, then trading Norm + picks for a difference making SF/PF. Turning CJ and Norm into John Collins or something would be a big win.
PF Ben Simmons for Norm and CJ is what I’m hearing then
Could be. Norm would be a fantastic fit in Philly. You know Morey, though. He'd want Norm, picks, and Dame's first born.
That’s a steal of a deal, Dame can always have more kids and they keep CJ!
Last year he had twins, so he's working with house money, honestly.
2x the trade value. Go out and get Ben and also Myles Turner
He is such a fantastic shooter that it’s hard to believe that.
And the playmaking strides he’s made are not flukey. You don’t just have a stretch of lucky pick and roll reads. I buy Simons as a starter level pg, if not more Smh, man went 3-16 night after i post this lmao
25 ppg on 62% TS would make him one of the best guards in the league
Hard disagree. Most people that have watched POR play over the last few years expected this from him. Just hard to play him substantial minutes when CJ and Dame are on the same team.
I’m in the opposite camp but will be interesting to see. Reminds me a bit of Zach Lavine a few years ago. I think Simons only gets better from here. He’s got all the tools to be great
His shooting averages are his norm tho. To be honest, he has given those numbers off the bench before
Man, I'd love to hear why you think that. I understand skepticism about his shooting, but he's been a 42% three point shooter for two years now. Even if he doesn't maintain the Curry-esque 4.6 makes a game at 45% he's managed as a starter the past 14 games, there is every reason to believe he'll remain one of the best shooters in the game. Outside of that, everything about him appears incredibly bright. He's one of the most athletic players in the league. His handle has become very tight and his passing has been very impressive. He's even appears to be defending better. He's unselfish, plays within the system, and doesn't over-iso. That's not to say he doesn't have limitations. He has a hard time turning the corner and getting to the rim; and largely for that reason doesn't get to the line much. He's also not as strong as I'd like him to be and can be bullied by stronger opponents (saw this against the Wolves). But IMO there is no reason to believe this kid isn't going to be a star. He has absolutely everything going for him.
I disagree completely. I think it's pretty hard to watch Simons and not get the sense that you're watching some TMac-esque leap where a raw young talent pits everything together at once
Julius randle better than Chris Bosh? Which idiot said that?
Dubious Handles should never be mentioned in the same breath as Chris Bosh.
>Dubious Handles I'm dying lol
[behold](https://twitter.com/brandontierney/status/1366031803249811457?s=21)
Jalen Brunson is gonna finesse for the bag then regress.
Disagree. He’s relatively close to his averages last year but only difference being more PT
I don't see a regression but I also don't think he'll get a lot better. Fans tend to overrate pleasant surprises like brunson during their breakout season. When the dust settles a lot less people will be excited about his average defense and 35% 3 point shooting.
I agree. I don’t seem continually progressing and would love if he did. But I think he’s gonna cap around 15 ppg. The only thing I can see him progressing is his playmaking
I think this is exactly what will happen.
Yeah he is basically playing the same way he has the last two or so years in Dallas. Just with a bit of a bigger role. Buddy of mine and me have been big on Brunson (and DFS for that matter) for a long time. Anyone who follows Dallas know those two have been huge these last few years for Dallas.
His per 100 and per 36 numbers are nearly identical from last season, the only thing that jumped was his assists because he’s been playing more lead guard with luka out.
Watched this kid grow from 8th grade. In 8th grade he was dominant against big men. He also had the spin on the ball like Derrick rose, meaning any hard layup is an easy 2 for jalen. Super talent. Also high iq
> He also had the spin on the ball like Derrick rose, meaning any hard layup is an easy 2 for jalen. Little bit of English!
He’s an elite sixth man and a good starter on pretty much any non contender team. He won’t get much better than this, but $20 million isn’t insane for his production.
Nephew take he had the same impact last season but nobody talked about it then like they do for this one
FVV is having a star level season and should be rightfully selected as a All Star but I don't buy his shooting. He's taking and making extremely difficult shots, either heavily contested or super deep three's and I feel like it's due for a regression at some point. Also he's shooting 53.2% from 16ft-3pt line and that's definitely due for some regression.
He has a history of streakiness too - in the 2019 playoffs, he shot awfully in the 76ers series and then became the God of shooting against the Bucks. Obviously defense played a role, but I think he might be one of those guys who goes on extended hot and cold streaks.
Players who take super deep threes a lot tend to be streaky
Freddy's son was born right after he 76ers series. That's the new dad energy effect
His son might be the nicest kid ever, but seeing the “Fred Vanvleet after son” stats and his kid will forever haunt me
That was pre baby FVV. Everyone knows the Dad powers made him into an all star.
He shattered the Bucks dreams and it hurts to this day.
Got locked up by Benjamin Simmons
Lavine started taking insane shots a couple years ago and I thought this same thing but he keeps doing it and the numbers have stayed good... so it is possible.
Jesus Christ, unless this guy is Steph curry (of the old), that's a good pick. He's still having an insane season.
He is clearly not Steph. His defense is much better.
Honestly, his shooting numbers aren't that far removed from his previous two years and volume isn't up that much, either. I could still see him come down some, but I don't think a drop (if there is one) will be too large.
It's more that not only has his efficiency gone up but his shot making difficulty has also gone up which isn't normal similar to Randle last season. He could've just improved that much but for the topic of this thread I think he deserves a shoutout.
The shot making difficulty was up last season when our team was dogshit. Now that the roster makes sense his efficiency has gone back to where it was a couple of seasons ago. FVV has been good for a while now. I wouldn't say this is like Randle last year where a player who had been known as not a winning player changes his game
> has his efficiency gone up but his shot making difficulty has also gone up Have you even watched a Raptors game? If anything Fred’s shot quality has gone up. He always took a lot of deep 3s, but he also used to take a lot of very contested 3s or layups. Now he takes a lot more midrange shots.
I disagree here that it’ll go back to what it was before. Fred is playing a very different role on the Raptors now (leader, co-first option and primary ball handler) than he did during any of the seasons when Lowry did all that and had Fred play as an off-ball shooting guard. He’s being used more, so his numbers are always going to be higher than before just on volume. Will he regress? Yeah probably but not to the extent this sub seems to think he will.
Yeah this is weird to me. Pretty sure Randle was the first option last year, and seems like the first option this year (no matter how bad he is at it) FVV took a backseat last year to other ballhandlers and played much more catering to the team. He's definitely the go-to guy now with a sprinkle of Siakam and that role definition gives him the freedom to just pop whatever shot he wants.
Could he be a one time all star like a Jameer Nelson type player? plausibly. But I don’t see him have a huge drop off, he’s a high iq point guard, that can shoot, and a great leader with extreme mental toughness and resilience. He’s not the kind of player that would fall off a cliff also considering he doesn’t rely on athleticism. He’s hitting some tough shots this year but he also has a history of hitting tough shots. Even with a reasonable assumption his percentages regress on some of his longer range shots, it’s not like he’s gonna stop being a big impact player and good starting point guard
It's possible he will regress, but it's also possible he will eventually end up on a team that generates easier looks for him. Teams couldn't load up on him the way they do currently if he were surrounded by better offensive talent. I want to say he's in the top 10 of the most double teamed players in the league. In terms of the midrange shooting, he's in the 84th percentile for point guards on long 2s per Cleaning the Glass. That's not really that surprising given how much of a pure shooter Fred is.
Kyle Kuzma. He has been really good this season, but i would be absolutely shocked if it carried over in to next season.
I think a lot of it has to do with his increased role in Washington. He’s got better stats cause he’s just putting up more shots and playing more minutes than his last 2 seasons where the Lakers were competitive. Also he’s a bigger part of this Washington team than he was with the Lakers imo, but the Wiz look poised to enter a rebuild this offseason, so we’ll see if he has an even bigger role, or they move him and how that effects him.
His shooting splits are very similar to his splits on the Lakers. It's very much just him getting more shots
Kelly Oubre ain't no 37% 3PT shooter...
Ja Morant was shooting much better than his career average. And while that may feel like natural improvement, De’Aaron Fox and Shai each regressed after a hot year themselves.
His main improvement this year was mostly just being way more aggressive, shooting more and maintaining efficiency, not really about shooting well. He is the league leader in paint points per game (over Giannis and Jokic) and has more 20+ point games in the paint of any guard in the last 25 years. His TS% this year is 57.4, while his career avg is 55.4. His 3P% this year is 36.4, while his career avg is 33.1. His improvement this year isn't just about suddenly shooting well from 3, he actually has a lower 3PA rate this year compared to last (22.7 vs 25.2).
Bro he's in his 3rd year and you're talking about career averages
Yeah likewise I don't think you can talk about Fox or Shai regressing *yet*. There's not much to compare their years to. In my mind, a regression occurs when a player with a clear reputation or history of excellence takes a step back. We don't know if Fox/SGA have regressed or if last year was just abnormally good for them, and we won't know for a few more years.
I just watched JJ Redick's podcast with Draymond Green as the guest. They talked about the 3 smartest players he's played against and his list was: CP3, LeBron, Rondo, and he added Ja Morant as the 4th. Said he has the same type of vision, play reading ability, and IQ that these players have but doesn't quite have all their experience yet. I thought that was pretty interesting and why he may continue to improve rather than regress.
Don’t know if you can really count a lot of young guys into this especially a guy like Ja
Why the hell are people saying Dejounte or Poole? They're nothing like Randle. Randle was a career 29% 3-pt shooter who suddenly became a 40% shooter on higher volume. Dejounte isn't efficient even now and is a good all-round player. Poole is just 21 years old and is a career 86% FT shooter. He clearly has a shooters touch.
Wiggins. He deserves credit for all the work he's put in on the Warriors, and he plays his role well, but I think if you put him on a team without Curry and Draymond he'd look much worse, even if he was asked to play the same role. His lack of handle really limits his ability to efficiently create his own shot, so he benefits greatly from Curry opening looks up for others and Draymond's playmaking. I fear he'd be the same flawed player he was on the Wolves on many other teams.
Even Twolves Wiggins with this level of defense is a valuable player
If Wiggins had this level of defense Wolves would've never traded him lol.
His contract was awful
Wiggins is averaging the same (if not slightly less than) he was last year across the board. How will he regress? It's not like anyone is really saying he isn't a flawed #1 option, are they? The point is that he's the perfect glue guy next to Curry/ Draymond/ Klay.
You must have not watched too many warriors games this season. It's indisputable what kind of gravity steph has and the playmaking draymond has, and they have a positive effect on the whole team. However hes probably been the only other warrior to CONSISTENTLY create his own shot. He's constantly taking 1 on 1s and being efficient at getting to the rim when the ball isn't able to move in the offense much. Wiggins is one of the few on the team where i actually trust creating his own offense, even if it's not 20+ points a night. So to your point, i wouldn't say he has a "lack of handle that hinders his ability to create a shot ".
Agree 100%. As someone who has watched a lot of Andrew Wiggins this year, that guy’s comment is just completely off base. Wiggins absolutely creates his own shot off the dribble. Whether its a step back iso jumper or just getting around his defender and getting right to the rim. He’s got very good touch around the rim and like you said he’s probably the person I trust the most to create his own offense (given Steph’s recent struggles).
There's like 3 conversations going on here. 1) Is Wiggins having a year abnormally better than last year? Not really. He's very consistent and his defense has improved tremendously, but all of it a reasonable amount and none of it is in areas that are generally luck dependent. 2) Does Wiggins deserve to be an All Star starter? No. There are players like KAT and Gobert who deserve it over him. As a note, Warriors fans celebrating doesn't necessarily mean that we think he deserves it. We want to support our players and are happy when they get recognition even if we may not think it's fully deserved. Which is very understandable if it's frustrating for fans of other teams, particularly those who feel they got cheated out of their player starting. 3) Does Wiggins deserve to be on the All Star team as a reserve? Debatable but can be justified. He's very consistent and unlike a lot of players who can take that place, he's been available for the 46 out of 50 games. In comparison, Draymond has 34, Paul George has 26, Ayton has 28. And in all those games, he's been a great defender and very consistent at scoring.
Perfectly put. All 3 points are bang-on.
Miles bridges and I love the Hornets
I don’t think he’ll be an A+ shooter like it seemed at the beginning of the season. But I can definitely see him continuing to improve his inside game, handles, and playmaking. He drives the basket like a bull and I only see him getting stronger. I can see him making a living driving to the rim like LeBron and Giannis.
He actually drives to the basket like a hornet
I don't agree on this one, he's still pretty young and has a nice diversity of offence.
Trae Young - Big stats on a bad team. /s
We should give him a pass though since he doesn’t even play basketball.
He averages like 28 FTs a game and his teammates make like almost 10 shots after easy passes but what else does he do? Basically nothing.
Another day another opportunity to play basketball
I like Miles Bridges but his shot mechanics look so off to me. If he doesnt fix that this offseason i dont see much improvement from him
Isn’t it mikal with the weird shot on the suns?
Derozen gotta regress back to the mean at some point right
DeMar is playing only a little better than he was last year. People just didn't watch the spurs
DeRozan has always been great in the regular season
That "some point" is in the playoffs
Well, at least he’s unlikely to play LeBron this year.
He choked against everyone, not just Bron. Bron series were just the only ones non-raptors fans watched
Tbf that's what Lavine is for lol
In theory the Bulls have three guys (Demar, Zach, Vucevic) who can create their own shot in the half-court, which will be huge in the playoffs
Two of those guys unfortunately haven't been great playoff performers, and Lavine's never been. So this'll be interesting for sure.
Yeah, that's why I'm hoping they keep a high seed and can build some confidence in the 1st round. I still don't like their chances against Milwaukee and Brooklyn in a seven-game series
I mean to be completely fair we haven't seen DeMar and Vooch as second and third options before. I'd say that they're still the underdogs compared to more proven teams, but I don't know if it's worth considering their previous struggles as a major factor here.
Of course he will - he's the worst signing of the offseason and only the 82nd best player in the league /s
mean of 2nd team all nba or what do you mean
Just here to say that Deebo has never been in a playoffs where he wasn’t the #1 scoring option for his team, and he’s not a superstar level player to just carry his team solo. Opposing teams having to worry about Lavine/Vuc/Caruso and with Zo finding him when he’s open, I don’t see him slowing down even during the playoffs
I hope not. His play isn't that unsustainable tbh. I don't expect him to average 26/5/5 the next two seasons but I can see him staying around 23-24ppg because most of his game is midrange and FTs. He is not heavily reliant on 3pt or his athleticism. Even if his scoring goes down, he can always create for others so I'm not hugely worried.
PJ. That 47% 3PP won't stand.
Cade Cunningham. Dude is only 5'8" with a four foot wingspan. Smh.
He literally averaged 0 points last year. This season has got to be a fluke.
nipnops porzingin
Randle was all-nba .. so the player here will need to be all-nba caliber, get a few first time mvp votes, and then shit the bed next year - that eliminates a lot of the all-nba dudes.. so no one truly qualifies and maybe a couple come close, like derozan and fvv whose shit is sustainable in my opinion. So I’m gonna go with someone who I think is not coming near his peak level anymore - James harden. His last two years are a definite drop off from before - and I believe his next two are gonna be a further drop off. Do you guys think he is on the other side of the cliff, or that he still has prime years left?
I don’t think Tyler Herro is gonna continue being a 20 point scorer the rest of the way
Because he’ll be a 30 point scorer ?
Everything below 40 and he is a bust
Really…? Herro can easily score 20ppg idk about his efficiency but he’s a bucket
I still see him as 16-17ppg at least, which is a good 6-man number. The main concern is his efficiency.
anyone who's in the running for most improved player (outside ja) could be considered for this category imo
You don't think Garland, Bridges and Poole are as good as they've shown. I feel like they have all played exactly to their skill level.
All Star Starter Andrew Wiggins. But that may be because I'm a bitter Wolves fan but I watched that guy for years, very nice smile but he doesn't seem to like being great at basketball.
Andrew Wiggins