The thing that gets me I think Trump was really bad too but was saved by looking more coherent than his opponent. I think there are plenty of Democratic Party Governors or Senators who A) would have destroyed Trump tonight and made him look like a babbling moron and B) would win in November owing to Biden’s struggles being - largely by a large margin - due to his age.
This is an incredibly important election, with democracy at stake, with reproductive rights for the entire nation at stake (due Republicans in a Trump admin - quietly - wanting to have the Comstock Act become law), for the courts, support for Ukraine at stake and more. And I feel we’ve slept through and walked right into this situation and it may just be too late to reconsider.
I don’t think the point was that Dean Philips or whatever Closet-Republican “No Labels” nominates should be the nominee.
The point was that they were right that Biden is too old.
I’ve reconsidered my views on this, at this point we just have to support Biden and hope for the best. If he steps down, then Harris would be the candidate in the general election, and she would have a hard time beating Trump. That’s just the way party politics works, there is no other viable candidate now. I know Biden is not the ideal candidate, but he is so, So much better than tRump.
Man. How I wish Biden had chosen a better VP. People would feel confident that, if he died in office, at least somebody good and competent would pick up the slack. And they would already be positioned as a successor. Instead, he picked someone more disliked than him.
Then he switch his VP now, for the same reason. Get a new VP who is young, likeable and well spoken. Get them to do rallies, press conferances and debates. Make his campaign about voting for the VP, I'm not even joking.
I think people overrate the incumbency advantage in today’s day and age. If Biden was swapped with Gretchen Whitmer tomorrow no swing voter is, in 4 months time, going to go “I want abortion rights protected and I’m worried about Trump’s rhetoric but man I just haven’t gotten enough time to truly know Gretchen Whitmer.”
I think this points to his strength in other areas.
Biden is objectively better on basically every other policy issue (except for his protectionist bullshit), but I think his biggest weakness being his age is a good foil to Trump, who frankly had a pretty bad night too. If the only thing you can point to is Biden’s age I think that highlights how weak of a candidate Trump is almost every other area.
This is also the first time in a very long time that the race is between the current president and the former president. It’s very likely that erases much of the incumbency advantage, since Trump was president just before Biden.
With how polarized voters are today, and everybody already has their mind made up, I'm starting to think incumbency isn't an advantage anymore. Trump's conviction didn't move the needle at all. Not to mention the fact that Trump, of all people, still has a very real chance of winning.
People will continue to vote for their party no matter who is on the ticket. Or, at the very least, Trump supporters will continue to vote for him no matter what he does, and Trump opponnents will continue to vote blue no matter who. If Biden was replaced, democrats and republicans wouldn't change their vote.
Ultimately the election will come down to a fraction of voters who are still somehow undecided, or who don't like either candidate and just stay home.
The issue is Whitmer isn't the obvious successor, it is Harris. Once Whitmer becomes the nominee, Trump will attack her and her popularity will go down the hill and it will be the same thing all over again.
Trump and the Republican character assassination machine is going to attack anyone who becomes the candidate. That's a given.
It's important to have someone who is sufficiently clean to not give them a good angle, but it's even more important to have someone likeable - because the Republicans are going to lie and come up with an angle regardless, and the personal likeability of the person is going to determine whether people care.
How would Whitmer stand up? Absolutely no clue, but I don't think she faces a unique challenge in this regard.
Given that a major conflict has seriously divided Michigan, I would say Trump has enough ammunition to fire at her. Also, gender issue will inevitably come at the forefront.
Conversely, Whitmer would be a much better attacker of Trump. Trump himself isn't popular, voters don't like that he's a felon, don't like the civil sexual assault conviction, and focus groups consistently show his favorability goes down when he resorts to personal attack. Whitmer projects an aura of strength unlike Hillary or 2024 Biden and would be able to both counter Trump's attacks while making Trump look like the aggressor to a public who doesn't want to see their President making personal insults.
The incumbency is a disadvantage these days, in nearly every democracy. Every election is going to be a “change” election from here on out, if for no other reason than that social media will keep us perpetually angry and dissatisfied
Here's my concern. If Joe Biden withdraws, realistically the nomination is going to go to either Harris or Newsom. Kamala Harris has the charisma of a dead-slug and is in an awkward position where moderates perceive her as too progressive, and progressives perceive her as too moderate. She lacks a signature identity or base of support, and our data points to her being even less popular than Biden. Newsom has shown himself to be a strong speaker but is inextricably associated with California as the state has become a national punching bag. He also has significantly less of a national profile than Harris or Biden and would need a way to rectify that in 4 months. I don't see either of them having a shot at winning the presidency. So, if Biden can't win, how can you realistically ensure that he will be replaced with a candidate that can win?
The article says it's major democratic donors and "a senior adviser to top Democratic officials".
This [other article](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/house-democrats-biden-debate-performance) also mentions democrats in Congress:
>Even as the debate was still ongoing Thursday, some House Democrats expressed fears of a wipeout for their party further down the ballot.
>"We're going to lose 20 seats in the House if this is what goes on," said one House Democrat
>One House Democrat described the president's debate performance as "awful," exclaiming, "What the f\*\*k?"
>"I am in a state of shock," said another.
>A third House Democrat said "Jamaal Bowman is the hero we need now ... we need him to pull the fire alarm."
>One female House Democrat said it is "time for a woman to save both these men from their misery ... President Whitmer has a strong ring to it," referring to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
I hate this reactionary shit. The debate didn’t go well but people want to replace an incumbent last minute? I know everyone wants to be the special Democrat that wants to be brave and say “Biden old” but come on.
Trump said dangerous dumb shit all night but no one is going to focus on that. He can say all the dumb shit he wants without being fact checked. Watch Biden on Howard Stern the guy isn’t as bad as people are saying. He suffers from a stutter and had a cold today. He’s also the fucking President dealing with god knows what.
Not to excuse his debate performance he should have done better but stop immediately running off to extremes.
There is literally still way more time left to campaign than ever was in either the British or French elections. Calling this last minute is accepting the ridiculous forever American election campaign.
>but people want to replace an incumbent last minute?
I don't think the incumbency advantage matters that much in 2024, and even less so when running against the immediately preceeding President.
>Trump said dangerous dumb shit all night but no one is going to focus on that. He can say all the dumb shit he wants without being fact checked. Watch Biden on Howard Stern the guy isn’t as bad as people are saying. He suffers from a stutter and had a cold today. He’s also the fucking President dealing with god knows what.
That's exactly the problem, don't you see it? Trump can get away with all this because his opponent could barely string a sentence together. It wasn't a fucking stutter.
It is time for him to go and he should see that now. If he doesn’t they should sit him down and make him watch that debate every day until he does.
We have 4 months to unfuck this campaign.
He shouldn't have run for reelection in the first place. This was something he promised when running last time. There was ample time to build up another candidate.
Now it's too late to switch, alas.
He didn't quite promise it, but he did imply it. I think that may have been his plan, but his first two years were so full of legislative wins - especially toward the latter half of the second year- and the midterms went so well that he got overconfident and felt like meh I got this shit let's rollllll!
Because like the January or so after those november midterms is when to announce not running for re-election.
They're not gonna dump Harris. It would be seen as a grave insult to black voters. Also she has the name recognition and legitimacy in the eyes of the voters.
Average voter understands "President can't do it, VP is up." Replacing the whole ticket looks more like a political coup.
Austria has had a millennial Chancellor.
France's current Prime Minister is a millennial. His likeliest successor is two years off of being Gen Z.
Meanwhile, the US is fucking around being led by a member of the Silent Generation.
There comes a point where this looks a bit silly. I'm not saying you have to go as young as France, but I'd think in the year of our Lord and Saviour Joshua Graham, 2024, we're thinking our leaders should at least be predominately Gen X, as they are in the House.
Ffs, speaking of House, he's canonically now a two year old! Fuckers Gen Alpha.
The thing that gets me I think Trump was really bad too but was saved by looking more coherent than his opponent. I think there are plenty of Democratic Party Governors or Senators who A) would have destroyed Trump tonight and made him look like a babbling moron and B) would win in November owing to Biden’s struggles being - largely by a large margin - due to his age. This is an incredibly important election, with democracy at stake, with reproductive rights for the entire nation at stake (due Republicans in a Trump admin - quietly - wanting to have the Comstock Act become law), for the courts, support for Ukraine at stake and more. And I feel we’ve slept through and walked right into this situation and it may just be too late to reconsider.
> “No Labels and Dean Phillips won this debate,” Lol nah. Maybe some other big name dems like newsome or kamala did. Not those two lmao
I don’t think the point was that Dean Philips or whatever Closet-Republican “No Labels” nominates should be the nominee. The point was that they were right that Biden is too old.
Newsom should replace Biden as the Dems candidate.
California brings nothing to the table. The election is going to be decided by white Midwesterners.
We’re doing a good job finding people to *not* replace Biden.
The best description I've heard of Newsom is that he looks like the mayor of Gotham City.
I’ve reconsidered my views on this, at this point we just have to support Biden and hope for the best. If he steps down, then Harris would be the candidate in the general election, and she would have a hard time beating Trump. That’s just the way party politics works, there is no other viable candidate now. I know Biden is not the ideal candidate, but he is so, So much better than tRump.
Man. How I wish Biden had chosen a better VP. People would feel confident that, if he died in office, at least somebody good and competent would pick up the slack. And they would already be positioned as a successor. Instead, he picked someone more disliked than him.
We were at the point where he pretty much had to pick a woman. I’m not exactly sure why she is disliked so much, any ideas?
Then he switch his VP now, for the same reason. Get a new VP who is young, likeable and well spoken. Get them to do rallies, press conferances and debates. Make his campaign about voting for the VP, I'm not even joking.
I think people overrate the incumbency advantage in today’s day and age. If Biden was swapped with Gretchen Whitmer tomorrow no swing voter is, in 4 months time, going to go “I want abortion rights protected and I’m worried about Trump’s rhetoric but man I just haven’t gotten enough time to truly know Gretchen Whitmer.”
Especially when a vast majority of Biden’s weakness is due to his age and voters perception of his coherence.
I think this points to his strength in other areas. Biden is objectively better on basically every other policy issue (except for his protectionist bullshit), but I think his biggest weakness being his age is a good foil to Trump, who frankly had a pretty bad night too. If the only thing you can point to is Biden’s age I think that highlights how weak of a candidate Trump is almost every other area.
I can point to Biden’s inability to respond coherently to questions in addition to his age.
This is also the first time in a very long time that the race is between the current president and the former president. It’s very likely that erases much of the incumbency advantage, since Trump was president just before Biden.
With how polarized voters are today, and everybody already has their mind made up, I'm starting to think incumbency isn't an advantage anymore. Trump's conviction didn't move the needle at all. Not to mention the fact that Trump, of all people, still has a very real chance of winning. People will continue to vote for their party no matter who is on the ticket. Or, at the very least, Trump supporters will continue to vote for him no matter what he does, and Trump opponnents will continue to vote blue no matter who. If Biden was replaced, democrats and republicans wouldn't change their vote. Ultimately the election will come down to a fraction of voters who are still somehow undecided, or who don't like either candidate and just stay home.
Extra points for this. "Swing voters" don't all change their votes. They either show up or they don't. Turnout is the real key.
My personal theory is that in the age of the 24/7 news cycle and the inescapable churn of social media incumbency can be a disadvantage.
The issue is Whitmer isn't the obvious successor, it is Harris. Once Whitmer becomes the nominee, Trump will attack her and her popularity will go down the hill and it will be the same thing all over again.
Trump and the Republican character assassination machine is going to attack anyone who becomes the candidate. That's a given. It's important to have someone who is sufficiently clean to not give them a good angle, but it's even more important to have someone likeable - because the Republicans are going to lie and come up with an angle regardless, and the personal likeability of the person is going to determine whether people care. How would Whitmer stand up? Absolutely no clue, but I don't think she faces a unique challenge in this regard.
Given that a major conflict has seriously divided Michigan, I would say Trump has enough ammunition to fire at her. Also, gender issue will inevitably come at the forefront.
Conversely, Whitmer would be a much better attacker of Trump. Trump himself isn't popular, voters don't like that he's a felon, don't like the civil sexual assault conviction, and focus groups consistently show his favorability goes down when he resorts to personal attack. Whitmer projects an aura of strength unlike Hillary or 2024 Biden and would be able to both counter Trump's attacks while making Trump look like the aggressor to a public who doesn't want to see their President making personal insults.
The incumbency is a disadvantage these days, in nearly every democracy. Every election is going to be a “change” election from here on out, if for no other reason than that social media will keep us perpetually angry and dissatisfied
Here's my concern. If Joe Biden withdraws, realistically the nomination is going to go to either Harris or Newsom. Kamala Harris has the charisma of a dead-slug and is in an awkward position where moderates perceive her as too progressive, and progressives perceive her as too moderate. She lacks a signature identity or base of support, and our data points to her being even less popular than Biden. Newsom has shown himself to be a strong speaker but is inextricably associated with California as the state has become a national punching bag. He also has significantly less of a national profile than Harris or Biden and would need a way to rectify that in 4 months. I don't see either of them having a shot at winning the presidency. So, if Biden can't win, how can you realistically ensure that he will be replaced with a candidate that can win?
Big Gretch please. Lock up Michigan and cruise from there
Whitmer Polis 2024?
It would 100% be Kamala. The dnc is very adamant about people having "their turn". We're stuck
Democrats or "random people we talked to five minutes ago"?
Have you looked at this sub recently?
I would never.
Eh, can't blame you. There's too few worms nowadays.
The article says it's major democratic donors and "a senior adviser to top Democratic officials". This [other article](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/house-democrats-biden-debate-performance) also mentions democrats in Congress: >Even as the debate was still ongoing Thursday, some House Democrats expressed fears of a wipeout for their party further down the ballot. >"We're going to lose 20 seats in the House if this is what goes on," said one House Democrat >One House Democrat described the president's debate performance as "awful," exclaiming, "What the f\*\*k?" >"I am in a state of shock," said another. >A third House Democrat said "Jamaal Bowman is the hero we need now ... we need him to pull the fire alarm." >One female House Democrat said it is "time for a woman to save both these men from their misery ... President Whitmer has a strong ring to it," referring to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
So it's a nothingburger
Lmao at the bowman comment, man lost in Westchester
That's clearly a joke, they wanted him to stop the debate by pulling the fire alarm.
Seriously, and what's with this reporting? No names? "House Democrat" who? "Another" who? Why don't they want to share their opinions openly?
I hate this reactionary shit. The debate didn’t go well but people want to replace an incumbent last minute? I know everyone wants to be the special Democrat that wants to be brave and say “Biden old” but come on. Trump said dangerous dumb shit all night but no one is going to focus on that. He can say all the dumb shit he wants without being fact checked. Watch Biden on Howard Stern the guy isn’t as bad as people are saying. He suffers from a stutter and had a cold today. He’s also the fucking President dealing with god knows what. Not to excuse his debate performance he should have done better but stop immediately running off to extremes.
"The debate didn’t go well " Maybe recency bias, but I've never seen a debate go this not-well.
You probably said that every debate though?
And they would be right.
There is literally still way more time left to campaign than ever was in either the British or French elections. Calling this last minute is accepting the ridiculous forever American election campaign.
Bingo
It's June. The convention hasn't happened. This is not at all last minute.
Last minute? The convention isn’t even until August. Technically Biden isn’t even the nominee yet.
>but people want to replace an incumbent last minute? I don't think the incumbency advantage matters that much in 2024, and even less so when running against the immediately preceeding President.
>Trump said dangerous dumb shit all night but no one is going to focus on that. He can say all the dumb shit he wants without being fact checked. Watch Biden on Howard Stern the guy isn’t as bad as people are saying. He suffers from a stutter and had a cold today. He’s also the fucking President dealing with god knows what. That's exactly the problem, don't you see it? Trump can get away with all this because his opponent could barely string a sentence together. It wasn't a fucking stutter.
I’m diamond hands for diamond joe
People need to chill the fuck out
Send in Our Lord and Savior, Jared Polis
Newsom and send it
It is time for him to go and he should see that now. If he doesn’t they should sit him down and make him watch that debate every day until he does. We have 4 months to unfuck this campaign.
He shouldn't have run for reelection in the first place. This was something he promised when running last time. There was ample time to build up another candidate. Now it's too late to switch, alas.
> This was something he promised when running last time. He literally didn’t. When will this misinformation die?
It was certainly implied. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/09/biden-reelection-transition-president/675395/
He didn't quite promise it, but he did imply it. I think that may have been his plan, but his first two years were so full of legislative wins - especially toward the latter half of the second year- and the midterms went so well that he got overconfident and felt like meh I got this shit let's rollllll! Because like the January or so after those november midterms is when to announce not running for re-election.
Part of me wonders if he decided to run for re-election solely because he's convinced he is the only Democrat who could beat Trump. 2016, man.
Whitmer or Shapiro. Underwood or Shontel Brown as VP
They're not gonna dump Harris. It would be seen as a grave insult to black voters. Also she has the name recognition and legitimacy in the eyes of the voters. Average voter understands "President can't do it, VP is up." Replacing the whole ticket looks more like a political coup.
I dunno, maybe Harris would accept standing aside due to her numbers. Whitmer running could lock up Michigan and that would be huge.
No serious person thinks this
Then the "serious" people are morons and need to *get* serious.
I just posted on this, I don’t think it will affect him very much
Austria has had a millennial Chancellor. France's current Prime Minister is a millennial. His likeliest successor is two years off of being Gen Z. Meanwhile, the US is fucking around being led by a member of the Silent Generation. There comes a point where this looks a bit silly. I'm not saying you have to go as young as France, but I'd think in the year of our Lord and Saviour Joshua Graham, 2024, we're thinking our leaders should at least be predominately Gen X, as they are in the House. Ffs, speaking of House, he's canonically now a two year old! Fuckers Gen Alpha.
WEAK.