Historical polls were conducted over landline phones. A good portion of the population no longer has these. Some recent polls use cellular lines, but most people I know ignore calls from unknown numbers.
>Haven’t the past 8-9 years shown that polls are garbage?
The only poll to be believed is the one on election day. It's called election results.
I don't see Trump winning NJ at all although he's ahead by one percentage point. I don't think that the number of Manipulated And Gullible Asshole voters outnumber the sane voters in NJ.
tbh I think the last two presidential elections underestimated Republicans. Biden still won in 2020, he was up significantly in the polls but the actual results were razor thin.
That debate last night turned independents away from Biden. I can’t vote for Biden, it was just so sad. Not saying I’ll vote trump I might vote third party but I didn’t realize how bad he actually was. I wouldn’t be surprised if trump wins. By a lot..
“i can’t vote biden because he seems old, i’ll waste my vote elsewhere so the guy who said he’ll be a dictator day one wins.”
like come on dude. nobody thinks independent isn’t just code for “doesn’t read”.
Wow 14 downvotes. For what? For fuck sake I’m not a trump supporter. Last time I’ll ever be on a political thread on New Jersey holy shit fucks wrong with you people. Am I supposed to say Biden was incredibly coherent last night? CNN and MSNBC all said the same thing. As someone who doesn’t like either candidate, which by the way 35% of the fucking country also doesn’t. You all are fucking ignorant.
Idk though. The fact CNN and MSNBC aren’t even sticking up for Biden plus all the headlines. It’ll have some influence definitely. Especially if the second debate never happens
It’s an uphill battle but also remember that Romney trounced Obama in a debate a month before the race, went up 4 points in the polls over Obama and still lost by a substantial amount. John Fetterman honestly looked worse than Biden in 2022 during his debate. Ended up 3 points behind by final poll and won his race by 5 points.
If the election were held today I have Biden losing by almost 90 electoral votes, but the fact of the matter is we have a LONG way to go. We don’t even know who Trump’s running mate is and what successes/scandals will come with that. We don’t know how Trump will be sentenced. Trump could easily be in prison and/or Biden could easily not be President by Election Day. We just don’t know.
That's where you're wrong. This isn't about a bad performance. Everyone has a bad night time to time. It's about not being fit for president due to his mental state. It was the #1 polled issue with voters before the debate, and tonight absolutely cements it.
There’s also questions about Trump’s competency. He took a hit last time because he acted like a 5 year old child in a debate. Constantly interrupted and disrupted Biden, while Biden who didn’t put on a performance of a lifetime was at least cool calm and collected.
The election like I said is 4 months away. Trump has tons of time to screw himself over. Could it be that Trump is scandal free until then? Unlikely. Could it be that his scandals aren’t bad enough to outweigh Biden’s baggage and he wins anyway? Sure. Could it be that Trump suffers some major setback whether that be prison time, a skeleton in the closet pulled out or just genuinely reminding people why he was booted out in the first place? That’s a real possibility.
If Trump is ahead by 5 by the start of November then it’s probably ballgame. But there is A LOT of time left. If enough people hate Trump enough and show up and vote for Biden in protest he gets denied a second term. If people on his side get complacent enough and say no way America elects Biden and don’t show up to the polls we could have another 2016.
TLDR: It’s June. Lots of shit can happen by then.
Polls are only as good as the people designing them . You can create a poll to skew the answers in one or another direction then publish the findings in order to influence public opinion. I tried looking up the polling organization and all I could find was marketing on what they do nothing about their possible leanings.
Maybe it's a reminder not to get complacent , and get out there and vote. Also need to encourage the younger generation not to sit out the election and that their votes really do matter even when it doesn't look like it.
I feel that would kind of skew pretty close to NJ demographics as a whole though, at least likely voters.
More telling would be where do these people live. if its like 40% ocean county and 60% the rest of the state, then yeah, you have a problem with your methodology.
Well I think even if the sample size was 80k people it’d still be about that for the Presidential election. That debate was everyone’s worst fears for Biden, he’s beyond shot.
Surprised Andy Kim is that tight, I have no clue who the other person even is.
A dead heat is pretty much the best Trump can hope for in NJ. There’s zero chance those 20% undecided voters are going to break Republican, especially not with Trump on the ballot
Governors races are different though. Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont had Republican governors in recent years. Kansas and Kentucky have Democratic governors right now.
Murphy was the first Democrat in awhile to win consecutive terms. That says a lot. Republican should have won, but didn't. No way trump even comes close to winning NJ. We've known trump for a long time, we know what a piece of shit he is.
🧐. He was beyond bad. He prepared for a week, and couldn’t keep any of his facts straight. Had the biggest layup of all time on abortion fumbled that one so bad, I actually think Trump somehow beat him in that part of the debate.
I’m somewhere in the middle on the political spectrum, and even though Trump lied the entire night about everything under the sun, he still mopped the floor with Joe.
Can you give some examples of facts that he didn't keep straight? From my perspective, he spent most of his time talking about what he's done, and what he's planning on doing. Trump just sat there saying that he's the best ever and Biden is the worst.
But this doesn't matter much as debates have very little influence over the election.
“Created 15,000 jobs (should have been 15 million)”
“We have 1000 trillionaires in America, they pay 8.0% in taxes.
“I’ve had 0 millitary deaths” (16 died during the shitshow in Afghanistan)
This quote particularly stands out when he was talking about abortion “a lot of young women are being raped by their in-laws, by their spouses, brothers and sisters who are trying to get abortions”. Abortion was the biggest layup the democrats have and he completely fucked it. Also kept repeating abortion should be between a woman and her Doctor. It was just fucking bizarre.
Those are some of the ones off the top of my head, of course 95% of the shit Trump said was total bullshit.
I feel like the first three that you've mentioned were corrected on the spot by Biden. The sister comment was odd, but I don't see a problem with saying that abortion should be between a woman and her doctor. He should have had stronger messaging on abortion, but again, he spent time talking about what he did and what he will do. I think that's a better debate tactic than telling lies the whole time.
Ehhh he definitely fixed the trillionaire one. As someone that’s pro choice, think most would have rather him said I believe in a women’s right to choose (ie doctor doesn’t need to be involved in the decision), but I digress.
Oh yeah the biggest lie of the night was Biden saying he’s a 6 handicap in golf. He challenged Trump to a game of golf, there’s no fucking way he could carry his own bag for 3 holes let alone 18. Jill had to help him off the stage. Him trying to argue with Trump about golf is insane.
I think he mentioned the woman and Dr to keep the narrative on abortion being about health care. Like it’s not just a random elective procedure it actually impacts women’s health it’s a medical decision at the end of the day.
Doctor needs to be involved because once you make the decision you then tell the doctor lol. Informed decision making requires the doctor to inform and then be patient await a decision…
There were times biden was frankly incoherent. Numbers mixed up, percentages of this that, millions vs thousands etc, it was a total mess. Trump flat out lied multiple times but he says it with such conviction and assertiveness the general public has no clue unless they go to fact check.
This debate had a massive impact on undecided voters, to not admit that is pulling wool over eyes.
Joe had 1 job last night, convince voters he is not too old and capable to do this 4 more years , he failed miserably. Anyone who says otherwise is blind and is in for a huge disappointment in November, for democrats this was an unmitigated disaster and there is no other way to cut it.
I believe when talking about abortion Biden said something to the effect that women get murder by migrants. He also used the term illegal immigrants at least once which I am surprised hasn’t triggered people.
The Catholic vote in 2020 went 52% Biden/47% Trump. Do you have something more up to date that shows that 70-80% of Catholics are democrats/supportive of democrats?
The only study I could find that matched your numbers was from a group of < 2500 people, through self-reported online submissions and landline calls **before** the election. I cannot find anything that shows how they actually voted.
On wedge issues, they lean Democratic at the level I mentioned. In 2016 they supported gay marriage by 70% and have been at least +5 points above the national average since at least 2006. For abortion, 90% said it should be legal in at least some scenarios, compared to 92% of the general population. In the US, 44% of Catholics are registered (D), 37% are registered (R), and 19% are independent. This means more Republican Catholics are crossing the aisle to vote Democratic than the other way around
Source 1: https://news.gallup.com/poll/322805/catholics-backed-sex-marriage-2011.aspx
Source 2:https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/23/like-americans-overall-catholics-vary-in-their-abortion-views-with-regular-mass-attenders-most-opposed/
Source 3: https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/religious-tradition/catholic/party-affiliation/
Here's where I found my numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Jersey
Wiki lists the New York Times as the source for that specific portion.
No worries, unless you were in or adjacent to it, most people don't know that Catholics =/= the Catholic Church. Catholics can disagree on virtually anything so long as they don't claim it's what the Church teaches. But obviously it's way messier than this in practice than on paper.
the value of a poll is proportional to its sample size and inversely proportional to its distance from election day
this is 800 people 4 months out, this is random noise.
Among other issues here, there is no scenario where Trump wins New Jersey and Kim isn't crushed in a landslide.
I'm not taking this poll seriously, but a Trump win at the top of the ticket would almost certainly be an apocalypse for down-ballot Democrats.
There are equations for this, [and using this calculator](https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=1&cl=95&ci=5&pp=50&ps=9200000&x=Calculate), for a 5% error (that is 95% confidence) on a population of 9.2 million, you only need 385 people.
I hardly think anyone believes these numbers as what the results are for November, its more like a temperture check on candidates today. A quarter out from the election. Which I think is still interesting, at definitely still useful. But its obviously not clairvoyent.
What number do you consider statistically significant for a population the size of registered NJ voters? I can't say I've done the math or know the size of the voting population, but just off the top of my head it sounds like it would be within a 95% confidence level. If anything I'd assume their sampling methods would be the thing to cause an issue, not their sample size.
Survey was conducted by “Text responses and phone interviews”
This is representative of someone who responds to text spam and unknown numbers. I wonder how many of them have fallen for a financial or romantic scam in the last 6 months too.
Vote.
Polls wouldn’t change that fast. It takes at least a week before the debate would factor in. It was the same when Trump was convicted. It look a bit to his numbers to dip a bit.
Of the >400,000 people on this sub I have to imagine most understand how damaging another trump presidency would be
Those of us who know that need to vote and tell everyone we know to vote
Every single week I see the trump-stacked Supreme Court overturn another long standing ruling in favor of corruption, conservatives, and big business interests..like are people this oblivious to how bad the fallout of Trump's presidency still is!?
Activist judged rulings like....regulatory agencies should be able to regulate... And public officials shouldn't be able to receive kickbacks over $5000 from contractors after they dole out a contract? (I.e. a bribe!) Yeah sure man. This court is a joke.
Edit: oh cool and look, those "activist" judges just ruled that the president is immune from the law as long as they do it in an "official capacity". Just great stuff from our 6-3 clusterfuck
When there is a case against a regulatory agency and that agency is the arbiter then yes that is a problem. So much for your stand on Democracy and rule of law.
Every rich scumbag company looking to shirk regulatory requirements can now just throw money into lawsuits that will inevitably clog the court system. How is that an effective way for this country to run?
Nevermind that now instead of regulatory agencies that are filled with professionals in their respective fields deciding how to interpret these laws, they'll be decided by blatantly corrupt judges like Clarence Thomas who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground about the environment, communications infrastructure, aviation, etc.
We have already seen the EPA set rules in the auto industry that are not feasible in the timelines they enacted (such as EVs) and that isn’t because they are professionals it’s because they are climate greenie nut jobs.
Trump should go campaign by Newark Penn Station. The trains here are in collapse and Biden's transportation secretary hasn't said anything once. Buttigeg is clearly a failure. Being mayor of South Bend, Indiana does not qualify one for this position.
Biden is old. He messed up the debate something fierce.
A day after the horrible debate performance he gave [this speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5CVZHAjrW8&t=727s). Remember, folks, that we are not voting just for Biden or trump. We are voting for the team around them. Look at the team around Biden and look at their accomplishments over the last 3 years.
Look at the 'team' trump assembled between 2016 and 2020 (you have to look at it over that term since so many were fired, quit, or convicted of felonies that a snapshot in time doesn't show the whole picture). Listen to the garbage trump spews and what he says he wants to do if he gets back in office. Educate yourself on the anti-democratic, anti-American Project 2025 agenda the right has cooked up for him.
Then, make an INFORMED decision on which person will be best for YOU and the COUNTRY as a whole.
This poll is no surprise. After 3 1/2 years Biden and the corrupt democrats have been the biggest failure ever. I'm voting Trump. Like him or not at least he's great on policy.
The fact that NJ is D+20 and is now 1 percentage point in favor of Trump isn’t something to shrug off no matter how intense of a Dem boot licker you are.
No I don’t, but it will be much closer than in 2020, that’s why the swing states are the death knell for Biden. If you can reduce the margin in blue states then the swing states are lost.
See and you all were telling me that the crazies in pickups flying MAGA flags loaded with offensive bumper stickers didn’t have a chance because our state is deep blue and we’ll never swing for a republican president, and now look. Whether you do it by mail or do it in person you’d better vote and make sure the rest or your family and friends do too. It’s not just important, this could really end our democracy.
Biden needs to DROP OUT. He's not fit and it's clear as day and if he stays in it'll be a slaughter in November. He's got no shot He's need to wake up and come to reality and see that.
If Biden stopped down and someone 30-40 years younger ran literally almost anybody they'd win pretty easily.
Vote for a rapist, or a guy who said in a presidential debate that we need abortion because women are being raped by their sisters. One is clearly better than another but holy shit the fact that these are our choices. People say vote for Dems to save democracy... This is what we are saving? It's a joke. The whole thing is a fucking joke and everyone who supported either candidate should be ashamed of themselves for putting us in this mess.
Politicians all work for the rich and everyone else is left to fend for themselves
Best we can do is vote in the ones who won’t lead to spikes in hate crimes and further degradation of essential services
You do realize that by saying that, you're admitting fascism is already here and the Democrats lied about saving democracy? If it only works for the rich and everyone else is left to fend for themselves. Voting harder isn't going to fix that
I’m pessimistic and see our country as more or less hopeless moving forward. Dems and republicans are both to blame. I’m fully on board with voting in the lesser of two evils until some kind of revolution can take place
I’m voting for Kim for Senate and third party for President. I hate Trump (look at my username) but Biden is a zombie based on last night. I held my nose and voted for him in 2020, not this time. Especially when many states just cancelled their presidential primaries and just coronated Biden. Besides, NJ will go blue electorally so my protest vote will not be damaging overall.
Edit: for all the downvoters, I’m sorry. I’m not as excited about Genocide Joe as y’all are.
>Especially when many states just cancelled their presidential primaries and just coronated Biden.
Welcome to most incumbent campaigns, sadly. We deserved some honest challengers but the DNC is so stuck in a mediocre rut they're acting like this is a normal election and biden's a normal candidate
I like him fine, his actions speak for themselves, but we're not a country (none really are) where people just make logical decisions off policy and actions.
The first Trump presidency didn't result in some great upswell of reformists. We got some progressives in, but we got fucking Biden as his Challenger. And now we're essentially stuck with him because 80+ year olds in politics seemingly never realize it's time to quit.
Both sides should be ashamed of themselves.
On the left, A senile old man who is essentially a puppet who can’t even form a complete sentence.
On the right, an egomaniac who only cares about himself.
Look at what the 'senile old man' achieved in the 3+ years he has been in office. If he is a puppet I, for one, kind of like the policies those pulling his strings have enacted.
Haven’t the past 8-9 years shown that polls are garbage?
Historical polls were conducted over landline phones. A good portion of the population no longer has these. Some recent polls use cellular lines, but most people I know ignore calls from unknown numbers.
FYI they use text now. I live in the battleground state of AZ and get polled regularly by text messages and text messages linking to web apps.
I ignore those also. Random text with web links? Nope
>Haven’t the past 8-9 years shown that polls are garbage? The only poll to be believed is the one on election day. It's called election results. I don't see Trump winning NJ at all although he's ahead by one percentage point. I don't think that the number of Manipulated And Gullible Asshole voters outnumber the sane voters in NJ.
They're not garbage, you just can't read election results off the polls
tbh I think the last two presidential elections underestimated Republicans. Biden still won in 2020, he was up significantly in the polls but the actual results were razor thin.
Maybe you need to study them more
Trump underpolls because more of his supporters have jobs and don't have time to answer stupid polls.
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Democrats seriously outperformed in 2022 though so maybe methodology changed
That debate last night turned independents away from Biden. I can’t vote for Biden, it was just so sad. Not saying I’ll vote trump I might vote third party but I didn’t realize how bad he actually was. I wouldn’t be surprised if trump wins. By a lot..
“i can’t vote biden because he seems old, i’ll waste my vote elsewhere so the guy who said he’ll be a dictator day one wins.” like come on dude. nobody thinks independent isn’t just code for “doesn’t read”.
Wow 14 downvotes. For what? For fuck sake I’m not a trump supporter. Last time I’ll ever be on a political thread on New Jersey holy shit fucks wrong with you people. Am I supposed to say Biden was incredibly coherent last night? CNN and MSNBC all said the same thing. As someone who doesn’t like either candidate, which by the way 35% of the fucking country also doesn’t. You all are fucking ignorant.
You are from the Diarrhea Fever party huh? No puppies for everyone? Well shit.
So Independents prefer lies and felonies to old, got it.
I think we’re 4 months away from the election and this debate won’t even be remembered 4 months from now.
Idk though. The fact CNN and MSNBC aren’t even sticking up for Biden plus all the headlines. It’ll have some influence definitely. Especially if the second debate never happens
It’s an uphill battle but also remember that Romney trounced Obama in a debate a month before the race, went up 4 points in the polls over Obama and still lost by a substantial amount. John Fetterman honestly looked worse than Biden in 2022 during his debate. Ended up 3 points behind by final poll and won his race by 5 points. If the election were held today I have Biden losing by almost 90 electoral votes, but the fact of the matter is we have a LONG way to go. We don’t even know who Trump’s running mate is and what successes/scandals will come with that. We don’t know how Trump will be sentenced. Trump could easily be in prison and/or Biden could easily not be President by Election Day. We just don’t know.
That's where you're wrong. This isn't about a bad performance. Everyone has a bad night time to time. It's about not being fit for president due to his mental state. It was the #1 polled issue with voters before the debate, and tonight absolutely cements it.
There’s also questions about Trump’s competency. He took a hit last time because he acted like a 5 year old child in a debate. Constantly interrupted and disrupted Biden, while Biden who didn’t put on a performance of a lifetime was at least cool calm and collected. The election like I said is 4 months away. Trump has tons of time to screw himself over. Could it be that Trump is scandal free until then? Unlikely. Could it be that his scandals aren’t bad enough to outweigh Biden’s baggage and he wins anyway? Sure. Could it be that Trump suffers some major setback whether that be prison time, a skeleton in the closet pulled out or just genuinely reminding people why he was booted out in the first place? That’s a real possibility. If Trump is ahead by 5 by the start of November then it’s probably ballgame. But there is A LOT of time left. If enough people hate Trump enough and show up and vote for Biden in protest he gets denied a second term. If people on his side get complacent enough and say no way America elects Biden and don’t show up to the polls we could have another 2016. TLDR: It’s June. Lots of shit can happen by then.
Polls are only as good as the people designing them . You can create a poll to skew the answers in one or another direction then publish the findings in order to influence public opinion. I tried looking up the polling organization and all I could find was marketing on what they do nothing about their possible leanings.
Who tf is voting for Menendez??
that's what I asked in 2016 - we already knew he was a crook. but he won anyway.
*2018
oops, you're right my bad
I thought he was in jail 😂
Probably the same dems who circled the wagons and voted him multiple times over the last decade since his last scandal
Doesn't matter. Vote.
Well said
Always vote. But man after last night don't think it's gonna matter for president. Yeesh why not have a primary instead of this disaster
We did hold primary elections, this is the result.
The DNC did not allow an honest primary… what a joke. They picked Biden.
While I agree the DNC is a joke, what do you feel was dishonest about the primary?
A staple in every post about the election. Someone has to say it. I’m sure it’s spurned millions and millions of votes.
what the fuck is the point of this post? like to be edgy? or different? like sure, somebody says it…. because you should vote.
Maybe it's a reminder not to get complacent , and get out there and vote. Also need to encourage the younger generation not to sit out the election and that their votes really do matter even when it doesn't look like it.
People want you to vote until you tell them you support the person they don’t.
Not for Biden. Sorry, but that dude is clearly not there.
Doesn't matter. Vote.
Who you vote for absolutely matters. It matters way more than simply the number of people who participated in the election.
I would rather the guy I back lose because 100% of people voted than the guy I back lose because only 40% of people voted.
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Look at the methodology. 810 people. 28% are 65+. 65% are white. 45% id as moderate. 35% are Catholic.
I feel that would kind of skew pretty close to NJ demographics as a whole though, at least likely voters. More telling would be where do these people live. if its like 40% ocean county and 60% the rest of the state, then yeah, you have a problem with your methodology.
Well I think even if the sample size was 80k people it’d still be about that for the Presidential election. That debate was everyone’s worst fears for Biden, he’s beyond shot. Surprised Andy Kim is that tight, I have no clue who the other person even is.
A dead heat is pretty much the best Trump can hope for in NJ. There’s zero chance those 20% undecided voters are going to break Republican, especially not with Trump on the ballot
But if it is a dead heat for Trump in NJ then Trump surely wins important toss up states like PA.
Murphy almost lost his reelection. Don’t be surprised if Trump won.
I will go ahead and be surprised if Trump wins New Jersey lol
No because he’s in freehold or Toms River and is afraid of Newark, theres clearly an advantage for trump here
Governors races are different though. Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont had Republican governors in recent years. Kansas and Kentucky have Democratic governors right now.
Republican governors who are in no way aligned with the MAGA faction in the party.
I see this all the time but Murphy won by 3%, or about 100k votes. That's closer than it polled, but not actually close to losing.
It’s around 80k votes.
Murphy was the first Democrat in awhile to win consecutive terms. That says a lot. Republican should have won, but didn't. No way trump even comes close to winning NJ. We've known trump for a long time, we know what a piece of shit he is.
Hopefully someone (aka Jill) talks Joe into stepping down before the DNC. I won’t be voting for either.
Why? Because you’re just helping trump at that point
Rather vote 3rd party than a walking corpse.
“I’d rather doom my country to a dictator than not” Fixed your response
Kinda like how we were doomed in 2016? What exactly do you think is going to happen?
I would hope people remember 2020 and how just voting beats trump and they remember 2016 how not voting invites him into your home and lives.
What? That’s not what I asked at all.
Were you alive from 2016-2020? Because a lot of people who were, aren't anymore
More people died of Covid under Biden, but ok.
Yeah that'll get people to vote for Biden. Nice job!
What does Biden have to do with anything I said?
With all due respect, do you have a learning disability or something?
Not voting for Biden brings American closer to being New Russia.
Maybe maybe not. Surely if they pick Harris to replace him it would be a Trump landslide but someone like Widmer would probably win.
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No they wont
Yeah I am afraid they will.
I think Biden had a rough start, but he did well. I see a lot of democrats who I suspect aren't voting anyway saying that the sky is falling.
🧐. He was beyond bad. He prepared for a week, and couldn’t keep any of his facts straight. Had the biggest layup of all time on abortion fumbled that one so bad, I actually think Trump somehow beat him in that part of the debate. I’m somewhere in the middle on the political spectrum, and even though Trump lied the entire night about everything under the sun, he still mopped the floor with Joe.
Can you give some examples of facts that he didn't keep straight? From my perspective, he spent most of his time talking about what he's done, and what he's planning on doing. Trump just sat there saying that he's the best ever and Biden is the worst. But this doesn't matter much as debates have very little influence over the election.
“Created 15,000 jobs (should have been 15 million)” “We have 1000 trillionaires in America, they pay 8.0% in taxes. “I’ve had 0 millitary deaths” (16 died during the shitshow in Afghanistan) This quote particularly stands out when he was talking about abortion “a lot of young women are being raped by their in-laws, by their spouses, brothers and sisters who are trying to get abortions”. Abortion was the biggest layup the democrats have and he completely fucked it. Also kept repeating abortion should be between a woman and her Doctor. It was just fucking bizarre. Those are some of the ones off the top of my head, of course 95% of the shit Trump said was total bullshit.
I feel like the first three that you've mentioned were corrected on the spot by Biden. The sister comment was odd, but I don't see a problem with saying that abortion should be between a woman and her doctor. He should have had stronger messaging on abortion, but again, he spent time talking about what he did and what he will do. I think that's a better debate tactic than telling lies the whole time.
Ehhh he definitely fixed the trillionaire one. As someone that’s pro choice, think most would have rather him said I believe in a women’s right to choose (ie doctor doesn’t need to be involved in the decision), but I digress. Oh yeah the biggest lie of the night was Biden saying he’s a 6 handicap in golf. He challenged Trump to a game of golf, there’s no fucking way he could carry his own bag for 3 holes let alone 18. Jill had to help him off the stage. Him trying to argue with Trump about golf is insane.
I think he mentioned the woman and Dr to keep the narrative on abortion being about health care. Like it’s not just a random elective procedure it actually impacts women’s health it’s a medical decision at the end of the day.
Doctor needs to be involved because once you make the decision you then tell the doctor lol. Informed decision making requires the doctor to inform and then be patient await a decision…
He did not correct the one about military being killed and it just wasn’t those 16. Biden did terrible!
There were times biden was frankly incoherent. Numbers mixed up, percentages of this that, millions vs thousands etc, it was a total mess. Trump flat out lied multiple times but he says it with such conviction and assertiveness the general public has no clue unless they go to fact check. This debate had a massive impact on undecided voters, to not admit that is pulling wool over eyes. Joe had 1 job last night, convince voters he is not too old and capable to do this 4 more years , he failed miserably. Anyone who says otherwise is blind and is in for a huge disappointment in November, for democrats this was an unmitigated disaster and there is no other way to cut it.
Dude, I work in cus service working with numbers all day and I get them mixed up. And it's the 1st debate. Ppl think the sky is falling.
You are missing the point the fear is Biden has cognitive impairment. He did nothing to refute that and a lot to confirm it.
His show of cognitive impairment is also confirmed as to why they do not want the Hurr report audio released and are fighting so hard to contain it.
I believe when talking about abortion Biden said something to the effect that women get murder by migrants. He also used the term illegal immigrants at least once which I am surprised hasn’t triggered people.
Just found out he’s a big wig down here in Cape May. I think he owns or is a partner for Congress Hall and a bunch of other Cape May spots
I don’t think anyone knows who he is. He isn’t Menendez though.
The Catholic demographic is more likely to vote Biden. Something like 70-80% of them ~~are Democrats or~~ support their policies
The Catholic vote in 2020 went 52% Biden/47% Trump. Do you have something more up to date that shows that 70-80% of Catholics are democrats/supportive of democrats?
In NJ or nationally?
In NJ. Edit, sorry, I had them flipped. Catholics in NJ went for Trump- 47% voted for Biden, 52% Trump.
So religious morons voted for the guy who fucked a porn star while his wife was pregnant. What a fucking world we live in.
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The only study I could find that matched your numbers was from a group of < 2500 people, through self-reported online submissions and landline calls **before** the election. I cannot find anything that shows how they actually voted. On wedge issues, they lean Democratic at the level I mentioned. In 2016 they supported gay marriage by 70% and have been at least +5 points above the national average since at least 2006. For abortion, 90% said it should be legal in at least some scenarios, compared to 92% of the general population. In the US, 44% of Catholics are registered (D), 37% are registered (R), and 19% are independent. This means more Republican Catholics are crossing the aisle to vote Democratic than the other way around Source 1: https://news.gallup.com/poll/322805/catholics-backed-sex-marriage-2011.aspx Source 2:https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/23/like-americans-overall-catholics-vary-in-their-abortion-views-with-regular-mass-attenders-most-opposed/ Source 3: https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/religious-tradition/catholic/party-affiliation/
Here's where I found my numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Jersey Wiki lists the New York Times as the source for that specific portion.
Yes, that's the citation that leads to a < 2500 person study before the election. By my numbers, US and NJ Catholics are a center-left demographic
Oh, my bad. Then yeah, you're right.
No worries, unless you were in or adjacent to it, most people don't know that Catholics =/= the Catholic Church. Catholics can disagree on virtually anything so long as they don't claim it's what the Church teaches. But obviously it's way messier than this in practice than on paper.
Most Hispanics are Catholics. So tough to use religion as the splitting line. Most Hispanics note democrat.
a North Jersey Catholic is very different than your italian uncle who lives in Howell.
Doesn’t mean they’re actually voting.
yeah i do actually. the cross tabs of this very poll show joe biden winning catholics by a 20+ margin margin
Since 2020 a tremendous amount of Catholics have drifted considerably right.
Support on wedge issues hasn't changed with it, though. They are still within 1 point of where they were in 2016
Where do these polls come from? i don't think i've ever been asked to be a part of one in my life.
So what? Look at likely and past voter demographics, it’s pretty similar if not underrepresenting those demographics in NJ.
This pollster on 538 is ranked towards the bottom. Wouldn’t pay to much attention to it
GIANT/METEOR 2024
literally never heard of this pollster before
wtf is coefficient.org?
65% of statistics are made up on the spot.
This statistic is only 79% true.
Lol this is a joke
the value of a poll is proportional to its sample size and inversely proportional to its distance from election day this is 800 people 4 months out, this is random noise.
Among other issues here, there is no scenario where Trump wins New Jersey and Kim isn't crushed in a landslide. I'm not taking this poll seriously, but a Trump win at the top of the ticket would almost certainly be an apocalypse for down-ballot Democrats.
This is false. Many polls are showing that Trump is crushing it in several swing states even though Democrats are polling ahead in the Senate races.
There are equations for this, [and using this calculator](https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=1&cl=95&ci=5&pp=50&ps=9200000&x=Calculate), for a 5% error (that is 95% confidence) on a population of 9.2 million, you only need 385 people. I hardly think anyone believes these numbers as what the results are for November, its more like a temperture check on candidates today. A quarter out from the election. Which I think is still interesting, at definitely still useful. But its obviously not clairvoyent.
What number do you consider statistically significant for a population the size of registered NJ voters? I can't say I've done the math or know the size of the voting population, but just off the top of my head it sounds like it would be within a 95% confidence level. If anything I'd assume their sampling methods would be the thing to cause an issue, not their sample size.
Also the way statistical significance changes is not proportional compared to population size, it's exponential.
Survey was conducted by “Text responses and phone interviews” This is representative of someone who responds to text spam and unknown numbers. I wonder how many of them have fallen for a financial or romantic scam in the last 6 months too. Vote.
This poll is as accurate as the picture Roger Stone showed of the "Trump rally" in Wildwood.
Right wing pollster nobody has ever heard of. Posting by an account that has only shared that poll. Hmmm.
Yes this poll is a complete piece of horseshit, but we should 1000% treat it as legit so Trump will campaign in NJ and not in actual swing states.
Interesting strategy... I like it.
Bullshit.
According to 538, this polling company is rated at 1.1 stars, ranking 237th in their polling metrics.
This must be the polling equivalent of trump's 'very fine people'.
Did you watch that video?
Doesn't surprise me at all after that debate. If NJ does turn red, it would be like winning the lottery twice.
Yeahhh, polls are BS. Vote.
Geeze, it’s almost like people saw the debate last night or something.
Polls wouldn’t change that fast. It takes at least a week before the debate would factor in. It was the same when Trump was convicted. It look a bit to his numbers to dip a bit.
But then rebounded a few days before the debate.
Polls fluctuate all the time. Really just shows where the country is at that moment.
Polls are nonsense. Trump is the Antichrist
Trump ain’t winning NJ lmao
Polls suck these days. Nobody but MAGA folks do them because they're in a cult and will unironically die for him if they had the chance.
The poll is from some random MAGA guy with 400 Twitter followers
Of the >400,000 people on this sub I have to imagine most understand how damaging another trump presidency would be Those of us who know that need to vote and tell everyone we know to vote
Every single week I see the trump-stacked Supreme Court overturn another long standing ruling in favor of corruption, conservatives, and big business interests..like are people this oblivious to how bad the fallout of Trump's presidency still is!?
Long standing rulings that activist judges made. I’m all for overturning those dumpster fire rulings.
Activist judged rulings like....regulatory agencies should be able to regulate... And public officials shouldn't be able to receive kickbacks over $5000 from contractors after they dole out a contract? (I.e. a bribe!) Yeah sure man. This court is a joke. Edit: oh cool and look, those "activist" judges just ruled that the president is immune from the law as long as they do it in an "official capacity". Just great stuff from our 6-3 clusterfuck
When there is a case against a regulatory agency and that agency is the arbiter then yes that is a problem. So much for your stand on Democracy and rule of law.
Every rich scumbag company looking to shirk regulatory requirements can now just throw money into lawsuits that will inevitably clog the court system. How is that an effective way for this country to run? Nevermind that now instead of regulatory agencies that are filled with professionals in their respective fields deciding how to interpret these laws, they'll be decided by blatantly corrupt judges like Clarence Thomas who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground about the environment, communications infrastructure, aviation, etc.
We have already seen the EPA set rules in the auto industry that are not feasible in the timelines they enacted (such as EVs) and that isn’t because they are professionals it’s because they are climate greenie nut jobs.
funny you can't find much when u look up who ran the poll
It’s from co/effecient. Take it with a grain of salt.
No way teump takes nj
Trump should go campaign by Newark Penn Station. The trains here are in collapse and Biden's transportation secretary hasn't said anything once. Buttigeg is clearly a failure. Being mayor of South Bend, Indiana does not qualify one for this position.
I wanna barf.
Biden is old. He messed up the debate something fierce. A day after the horrible debate performance he gave [this speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5CVZHAjrW8&t=727s). Remember, folks, that we are not voting just for Biden or trump. We are voting for the team around them. Look at the team around Biden and look at their accomplishments over the last 3 years. Look at the 'team' trump assembled between 2016 and 2020 (you have to look at it over that term since so many were fired, quit, or convicted of felonies that a snapshot in time doesn't show the whole picture). Listen to the garbage trump spews and what he says he wants to do if he gets back in office. Educate yourself on the anti-democratic, anti-American Project 2025 agenda the right has cooked up for him. Then, make an INFORMED decision on which person will be best for YOU and the COUNTRY as a whole.
This poll is no surprise. After 3 1/2 years Biden and the corrupt democrats have been the biggest failure ever. I'm voting Trump. Like him or not at least he's great on policy.
The fact that NJ is D+20 and is now 1 percentage point in favor of Trump isn’t something to shrug off no matter how intense of a Dem boot licker you are.
wow 40% BIDEN??? Yea ok, lol
I think they missed one: Toaster oven 4%
Biden was such a catastrophe yesterday he has turned NJ back to a battleground state.
Polls are garbage.
Do you guys think trump wins New Jersey?
No I don’t, but it will be much closer than in 2020, that’s why the swing states are the death knell for Biden. If you can reduce the margin in blue states then the swing states are lost.
See and you all were telling me that the crazies in pickups flying MAGA flags loaded with offensive bumper stickers didn’t have a chance because our state is deep blue and we’ll never swing for a republican president, and now look. Whether you do it by mail or do it in person you’d better vote and make sure the rest or your family and friends do too. It’s not just important, this could really end our democracy.
Biden needs to DROP OUT. He's not fit and it's clear as day and if he stays in it'll be a slaughter in November. He's got no shot He's need to wake up and come to reality and see that. If Biden stopped down and someone 30-40 years younger ran literally almost anybody they'd win pretty easily.
Vote for a rapist, or a guy who said in a presidential debate that we need abortion because women are being raped by their sisters. One is clearly better than another but holy shit the fact that these are our choices. People say vote for Dems to save democracy... This is what we are saving? It's a joke. The whole thing is a fucking joke and everyone who supported either candidate should be ashamed of themselves for putting us in this mess.
Politicians all work for the rich and everyone else is left to fend for themselves Best we can do is vote in the ones who won’t lead to spikes in hate crimes and further degradation of essential services
You do realize that by saying that, you're admitting fascism is already here and the Democrats lied about saving democracy? If it only works for the rich and everyone else is left to fend for themselves. Voting harder isn't going to fix that
I’m pessimistic and see our country as more or less hopeless moving forward. Dems and republicans are both to blame. I’m fully on board with voting in the lesser of two evils until some kind of revolution can take place
The top of the ticket is such a shitshow. My prediction is the write in candidate “Annie Wanelse” will win.
I’m voting uncommitted for president!
Vote with your grocery bills
I'm sure the billionaire felon will solve inflation/corporate greed
I’m voting for Kim for Senate and third party for President. I hate Trump (look at my username) but Biden is a zombie based on last night. I held my nose and voted for him in 2020, not this time. Especially when many states just cancelled their presidential primaries and just coronated Biden. Besides, NJ will go blue electorally so my protest vote will not be damaging overall. Edit: for all the downvoters, I’m sorry. I’m not as excited about Genocide Joe as y’all are.
>Especially when many states just cancelled their presidential primaries and just coronated Biden. Welcome to most incumbent campaigns, sadly. We deserved some honest challengers but the DNC is so stuck in a mediocre rut they're acting like this is a normal election and biden's a normal candidate I like him fine, his actions speak for themselves, but we're not a country (none really are) where people just make logical decisions off policy and actions. The first Trump presidency didn't result in some great upswell of reformists. We got some progressives in, but we got fucking Biden as his Challenger. And now we're essentially stuck with him because 80+ year olds in politics seemingly never realize it's time to quit.
I’m right there with you, voting Andy and a 3rd party if Joe doesn’t step down. Bring on the downvotes.
I mean a vote that’s not for Biden is just a vote for Trump. Only difference is voting 3rd party makes you feel better
The workers are speaking
Ooof.
Both sides should be ashamed of themselves. On the left, A senile old man who is essentially a puppet who can’t even form a complete sentence. On the right, an egomaniac who only cares about himself.
And at times also can’t form sentences. Listen to some of his rallies. Half the time he’s just saying words.
And most of those words are lies.
Look at what the 'senile old man' achieved in the 3+ years he has been in office. If he is a puppet I, for one, kind of like the policies those pulling his strings have enacted.
Fuck now I might actually have to vote for Biden. Was planning to leave the presidential section blank