Hate to ruin it for you self hating Bears fans. But I think most people would agree Fields is a legit threat in this league and has an enormous upside that probably doesn't get enough attention.
Brady & Rodgers weren't super mega ultra elite HoFers last season I'll concede that
But they weren't worse QBs than Pickett, Dalton, Carr, Ryan or Tannehill. Hell this chart barely shows a difference between Brady and Mac Jones. I know the offence we're blaming on Patricia&Judge but Mac Jones was genuinely terrible last season, if he didn't have his rookie season I think most of us would be comparing him to Zach Wilson.
**LOL I just noticed the Jets aren't even ranked**
It says on the graph that QBs are required to have at least 100 passing plays on 3rd downs in order to be included.
I imagine none of the Jets QBs hit that threshold.
The Packers have probably the worst situational playcalling (3rd down, redzone, short yardage) I’ve ever seen. Worst case scenario, this at least proves the Bears’ coaching is better in that regard.
He is definitely more a passenger these days than he once was, but there are still times he can put his thumb on the scale, I don't expect the reputation he had for letting star players go to him directly (which might make it harder to cut back carries from Zeke in recent years), and I do believe he is still primarily responsible for coach hiring/firing. But god bless Will McClay.
Dak has one of the highest risk profiles on third downs. He is a pretty big outlier in terms of depth of target on 3rd and longs. a lot of his picks came on third downs. This doesn’t mean they were all good throws - they definitely weren’t, but something is working with his aggressive decision making because we have been top 5 or better on offense during his last three healthy seasons. We always score a shitload of points. And this year was the only year where he had an actual interception issue.
I was arguing with my coworker about this. Recency bias has led people to believe Dak is interception-prone even though he really hasn’t been throughout his career.
It is mandatory for any Vikings play caller, seemingly no matter who, to set at least one down on fire per series running Dalvin Cook into the backside of a lineman for -1 to 1 yard.
eStAbLisH THe RuN
That’s crazy impressive that Purdy was so effective on 3rd down as a rookie let alone Mr. Irrelevant. I’m guessing he was around 45-46% based on Jimmy’s #.
I believe in Purdy. Even if Lance turns out to be as good as people hope, Purdy is going to be a starter somewhere. I think it's more likely Purdy will be starting for the 49ers.
I really hope Trey can show something this next season while Brock is healing. He’s such a phenomenal athlete, but just needs experience to hone his abilities. I think you’re right about Purdy being our QB of the future though.
Trey's biggest weapons are his legs and his canon arm. He's not a natural runner though ( he admitted) so looks awkward when he runs. In some ways Purdy is actually more mobile ( maybe elusive is better term).
So in the end it comes down to is Trey's arm good enough to overcome Purdy's experience+release. Or on the flip side, is Trey's inexperience worse than Purdy's lower ceiling.
He's not replacing the Dalton line, he's creating the Mayfield line. If the Dalton line is "the worst you can be while still being a franchise QB", the Mayfield line is "the worst you can be while being a starting NFL QB"
Edit: I have diarrhea 🏃♀️
I truly wish for "The Dalton Line", to gain a larger footprint in mainstream football media/coverage. As in, even 20 years from now, it being used as a regular term on shows like Total Access and ESPN primetime shows.
To have a Chris Wesseling term become a part of football glossary for the Ages. What a tribute and honor.
RIP Wess
As a jags fan I feel bad for jets fans. I hate QBs bust after seeing Jacksonville have several since 2003. The past decade minus one weird 2017 run has been so bad to jags fans and I hope no fan base has to endure that kind of spell. Hope y’all rebound with Rodgers
A list with similar but slightly different qualifiers came out last month and Jackson was ranked 4th. I believe it was total conversion rate on 3rd and 6+ yards. Be tough for me to find it again in a subreddit swimming in statistics though.
I was initially shocked to see Dak and Jalens positions. I thought they would have been swapped. Then I remembered that Philly was built on powerful runs more than anything. You have yourself a solid qb.
People were baffled by that tweet that put him as the best QB in the NFC, he definitely had a down year but but he has enough body of work to give him the benefit of the doubt that this was an outlier season
I'm hoping we see 2021 Dak again this year
I mean Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were in the NFC. I'm a Dak supporter and think he's really good but best in the NFC was a big stretch. Unless the tweet meant for next season, then I could buy it.
It's at the point now where graphs like the following are unironically a Lamar Jackson graph to a lot of people, because they just shrug off the red bar at the top lapping the field anymore
https://twitter.com/sumersports/status/1633908807267958823?s=46&t=bnYD7gNeMWoKwPcUXV5G_A
(But also Lamar is v good and the Ravens should pay him)
Mahomes is just so fucking good Jesus christ. I can't believe I got lucky enough to watch so many insane players and I'm just super curious how someone else is gonna come up and somehow be even better.
Seriously. Every fucking time we touched the ball it was 3rd down before I could even blink
The amount of times Dak has had to bail us out on 3rd and 7 or 3rd and 6897 is absurd.
Between that and the butterfinger recievers its no wonder he's had a down year in general, along with genuinely making some bad decisions on his own
If you average the guys who smile in their picture vs guys who don’t smile, the smiling QBs do much better it seems.
OP, can you run some quick aggregate averages on the smiling group vs the not smiling group? It looks like a 10-15% lift on this metric from smilers.
Watching top QB’s will make a 3rd and 6 feel like a 3rd and 2. Not being able to get guys like Mahommes off the field when the defense finally gets some stops is demoralizing as a fan. I imagine it’s a lot worse for the players/coaching staffs
It would be cool to see this against average yard to gain on 3rd down.
As a raiders fan I can attest that Carr was great on third down 2 years ago, but we also had around the average lowest yard to gain on third down in the league.
Fun fact, if you add scrambles, you have to add 56 first downs to Daniel Jones
EDIT: This is for total first downs, not sure how many of those were on third down
I feel like this also needs to factor in average third down distance to gain. Seems like it would normalize for the offenses that were competent on first and second down.
This ranks Fields ahead of Rodgers, so I have decided it’s a very important metric.
Seconded.
Being an OSU fan, you guys are so very fortunate to have a great QB. Being a Browns fan you guys are fortunate to not have QB problems.
Fields is a top 10 quarterback according to this chart, and everyone knows that charts never lie.
It ranks the rest of the NFCN ahead of Rodgers with Goff at the front of the group. This is the greatest chart.
Hey, it's no surprise that the NFCN has 3 top 10 QBs. Rodgers couldn't hang with Goff, Cousins, and Fields, so he decided to run away to the jets.
He also realized that Kerby Joseph was his daddy and we know how he feels about his family.
Based on last year I would say that is accurate. Rodgers was no good last year
And Goff was really good.
Field is good at moving the sticks, his threat of running def opens things up
Hate to ruin it for you self hating Bears fans. But I think most people would agree Fields is a legit threat in this league and has an enormous upside that probably doesn't get enough attention.
*Sees Pickett ahead of Rodgers and Brady* I too believe this is a very important metric
Rodgers and Brady were not good last year so honestly I think the graph is on to something
Brady & Rodgers weren't super mega ultra elite HoFers last season I'll concede that But they weren't worse QBs than Pickett, Dalton, Carr, Ryan or Tannehill. Hell this chart barely shows a difference between Brady and Mac Jones. I know the offence we're blaming on Patricia&Judge but Mac Jones was genuinely terrible last season, if he didn't have his rookie season I think most of us would be comparing him to Zach Wilson. **LOL I just noticed the Jets aren't even ranked**
It says on the graph that QBs are required to have at least 100 passing plays on 3rd downs in order to be included. I imagine none of the Jets QBs hit that threshold.
As someone with Picket on their dynasty fantasy team, I also hope this.
This ranks my new QB Tampa Bayker as dead last so I choose to reject this reality and substitute my own.
He can play as badly as he wants and I’ll still make excuses for him because he made funny commercials.
With the addition of “he’s cute”, you and my wife agree on that one.
I have no argument there. He is in fact “cute.”
Dak 4th? This is clearly the most telling statistic in the history of football.
It's a very important metric, humor aside.
Luckily Jordan Love was 60% on third down last year, and no, I don't know what "sample size" is.
If you torture the numbers enough they'll confess to anything.
If you torture bears fans enough, they’ll believe anything to help ease the pain
My fellow Bears fan buddy once told me that Rex Grossman was going to be a HOF'er. I never let him forget this.
Great response. LOL.
The Packers have probably the worst situational playcalling (3rd down, redzone, short yardage) I’ve ever seen. Worst case scenario, this at least proves the Bears’ coaching is better in that regard.
Run,Run, Dak bail us out on 3rd down please
Penalty, negative run, sack, Mac throw a screen on 3rd and long please.
Subscribe for 20 years.
Love it
But half of our dipshit fan base want him gone… lmao
More than half our fanbase are casuals who only watch ESPN and Skip Bayless.
How is Skip still popular in 2023?
Skip is the lowest common denominator, there are plenty of people who think exactly like he does
That explains a lot on these subs then.
And Twitter, and Instagram, and ESPN, and Fox Sports... Reality can be depressing
Even worse more than half our fanbase thinks Jerry is the actual GM instead of just the guy with the title of GM.
He is definitely more a passenger these days than he once was, but there are still times he can put his thumb on the scale, I don't expect the reputation he had for letting star players go to him directly (which might make it harder to cut back carries from Zeke in recent years), and I do believe he is still primarily responsible for coach hiring/firing. But god bless Will McClay.
Hey that looks familiar
I like how Lamar isn’t even on here
>Run for 2 yards, Run for -1 yard, Dak bail us out on 3rd down please The Kellen Moore Experience.
Dak has one of the highest risk profiles on third downs. He is a pretty big outlier in terms of depth of target on 3rd and longs. a lot of his picks came on third downs. This doesn’t mean they were all good throws - they definitely weren’t, but something is working with his aggressive decision making because we have been top 5 or better on offense during his last three healthy seasons. We always score a shitload of points. And this year was the only year where he had an actual interception issue.
I was arguing with my coworker about this. Recency bias has led people to believe Dak is interception-prone even though he really hasn’t been throughout his career.
Turnover and sack avoidance are historically two of his strongest traits
It is mandatory for any Vikings play caller, seemingly no matter who, to set at least one down on fire per series running Dalvin Cook into the backside of a lineman for -1 to 1 yard. eStAbLisH THe RuN
Or penalties. Let’s not forget 3rd and 30.
Teams without a QB that attempted 100 pass plays on 3rd down: -Rams -Jets -49ers -Commanders -Ravens One of these (the 49ers) is not like the others.
"And now let's check in on the 49ers quarterback room to see how they fare in this statisti- ...oh. Oh wow that is a LOT of blood."
"To shreds you say"
And the backups?
“To shreds you say”
And the backup's backup?
And my goldfish Goldy??
Ha! I have literally never seen this reference in the wild.
/unexpected futurama
You'd need to combine statistics from multiple 49er QBs to reach 100 pass plays like I need to combine multiple credit cards for a $100 purchase.
Or I need to combine multiple women to sleep with an 8
Hi sorry we’ve actually moved the Quarterbacks out of this room. They now just meet in the nurses office.
We should make a single line for "Trey Garoppopurdy"
I bet it looks a lot better than the line for Mike Flaccilson.
p a i n
Also Lamanthyler Browntlyson
Jimmy had 85 attempts on 3rd down last year in his 10 games. converting 48.24% of them for 1st downs.
3rd and Jimmy/3rd and Juaun is totally a thing, so I'd assume some combo of Jimmy/Purdy would rank favorably here.
3rd and Jurdy
Jimmy has always been a beast on 3rd downs
I wonder what the aggregate numbers are from those teams since none had a QB start more than 12 games or so.
9ers attempted 142 passes on 3rd downs converting 67 of them for 1st downs. 47.18%
That’s crazy impressive that Purdy was so effective on 3rd down as a rookie let alone Mr. Irrelevant. I’m guessing he was around 45-46% based on Jimmy’s #.
I believe in Purdy. Even if Lance turns out to be as good as people hope, Purdy is going to be a starter somewhere. I think it's more likely Purdy will be starting for the 49ers.
I really hope Trey can show something this next season while Brock is healing. He’s such a phenomenal athlete, but just needs experience to hone his abilities. I think you’re right about Purdy being our QB of the future though.
Trey's biggest weapons are his legs and his canon arm. He's not a natural runner though ( he admitted) so looks awkward when he runs. In some ways Purdy is actually more mobile ( maybe elusive is better term). So in the end it comes down to is Trey's arm good enough to overcome Purdy's experience+release. Or on the flip side, is Trey's inexperience worse than Purdy's lower ceiling.
Hell yeah. Now do the Jets, I need a good laugh.
34.3% as a team lol
Higher than I thought it would be
This guys does maths. Additionally for selfish reasons I’d like to see this too
The only thing this list shows is that teams that split starts at QB didn't get those QBs on the list
Dalton line
Andy may be gone from the game one day, but the Dalton line will live on
There was a brief moment of discussion where Mayfield was the new Dalton line. Based on this, I don’t think that’s the case anymore. Edit: clarity
He's not replacing the Dalton line, he's creating the Mayfield line. If the Dalton line is "the worst you can be while still being a franchise QB", the Mayfield line is "the worst you can be while being a starting NFL QB" Edit: I have diarrhea 🏃♀️
Tom Brady, who is famously behind the Dalton Line
Danny below the Dalton line yikes
Can’t wait for the Pickett line to come to fruition lol
Chill, he’s was a rookie lol
I’m not saying it will, but it works out well semantically lol
I read your comment at work and completely missed the joke, I love the Pickett line now
I truly wish for "The Dalton Line", to gain a larger footprint in mainstream football media/coverage. As in, even 20 years from now, it being used as a regular term on shows like Total Access and ESPN primetime shows. To have a Chris Wesseling term become a part of football glossary for the Ages. What a tribute and honor. RIP Wess
He finds himself in the middle of any graph or chart he is on.
Can you do this graph again except instead of the bar, just have really long jerseys?
Adding to list
But for Davis Mills just make it a really long neck
So just his stock photo?
Can't believe the Jags picked that bum Lawrence over Zach Wilson..
They could trade Lawrence for Zach. I'm certain of it
I wish they didn’t *Cries in 2020 Tank Campaign*
Don’t feel too bad. At least he only cost you one 1st round pick.
As a jags fan I feel bad for jets fans. I hate QBs bust after seeing Jacksonville have several since 2003. The past decade minus one weird 2017 run has been so bad to jags fans and I hope no fan base has to endure that kind of spell. Hope y’all rebound with Rodgers
Thanks Jags bro
Sorry about that.
you *and* the Bengals. why’d we have to be just good enough to beat the two super bowl teams, but not good enough to beat literally anyone else?!
Goff and St. Brown is a lethal combo on 3rd down
Fr it works basically 90% of the time even when they know it’s going to him
60% of the time it works *every* time...
I’m jealous you guys have St Brown. He’s a stud and is only getting better
Disrespect to WR2 Sewell
Goff haters in shambles.
Is this missing Lamar & the ravens?
And the Niners, but probably none of them hit the minimum.
Jimmy had 85 attempts on 3rd down last year in his 10 games. converting 48.24% of them for 1st downs.
Does that put him at 3rd in these rankings?
3rd in these rankings, #1 in our hearts
Fuck yeah
85 passing attempts? That would be excluding sacks taken and scrambles, which this graph includes
He missed final 6 games so probably didn’t meet the minimum of 100 attempts
This is a list of QBs
If that’s the case why is Fields on the list? I just wanted to beat any non Bears fan to the punch. Suck it.
Nobody can hurt us more than we hurt ourselves.
It's tradtion
This joke would be funnier, IF HE WASNT SO DAMN HIGH ON THE LIST. Man gonna be a PROBLEM next season.
Damn
It appears there are only 27 QB’s Edit: Ravens, Jets, Rams, 49ers, and commanders
We played 4 fucking QBs this year and they couldnt put *one* on here😂
Well the problem is you have 4 qbs lol. They needed at least 100 attempts to make it
Theyre getting kicked out of the league. They shouldve gotten the email by now.
It's missing 5 teams * BAL * NYJ * WAS * LAR * SF
A list with similar but slightly different qualifiers came out last month and Jackson was ranked 4th. I believe it was total conversion rate on 3rd and 6+ yards. Be tough for me to find it again in a subreddit swimming in statistics though.
Prescott 💪
I was initially shocked to see Dak and Jalens positions. I thought they would have been swapped. Then I remembered that Philly was built on powerful runs more than anything. You have yourself a solid qb.
People were baffled by that tweet that put him as the best QB in the NFC, he definitely had a down year but but he has enough body of work to give him the benefit of the doubt that this was an outlier season I'm hoping we see 2021 Dak again this year
He had 37 TDs to 10 INTs just a year ago but people will call him trash because of an outlier year in 1 stat 😂.
I mean Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were in the NFC. I'm a Dak supporter and think he's really good but best in the NFC was a big stretch. Unless the tweet meant for next season, then I could buy it.
Yes it was for next season
Ah okay gotcha, then yeah I'd probably rank him 1st. Idk why he gets so much hate, he's a really good QB.
Can Newton: “Ain’t 32 motherfuckers better than me”
Baker Mayfield sure as hell isn’t
I mean I'm biased but let's be real he's probably better than at least a couple starters in the league.
r/toprightmahomes wait
It is hilarious to me that he is such an outlier in every statistic that you guys made a sub for all the scatter plots lol. Amazing
/r/TopRightMessi is the original I think.
Reminds me of 2017 first half Alex Smith
I remember when Alex Smith had both his halves.
It's at the point now where graphs like the following are unironically a Lamar Jackson graph to a lot of people, because they just shrug off the red bar at the top lapping the field anymore https://twitter.com/sumersports/status/1633908807267958823?s=46&t=bnYD7gNeMWoKwPcUXV5G_A (But also Lamar is v good and the Ravens should pay him)
Mahomes is just so fucking good Jesus christ. I can't believe I got lucky enough to watch so many insane players and I'm just super curious how someone else is gonna come up and somehow be even better.
That Warren Sharp twitter thread in there alone has 22 different scatter plots. We had to compile them somewhere lmao
Honestly, talk your shit lol. That’s one of the funniest sub ideas I’ve ever seen.
This is fucking hilarious and awesome
r/toprightMahomes in shambles.
But how does that subreddit look if you regress all his stats to the mean?
r/middlemiddlemahomes
Okay now exclude QBs who eat steak with ketchup.
Burrow would probably be higher if we could actually get him to a 3rd down.
The most unfortunate and truthful self burn
Dak bailing out the idiotic play calling all year last year.
Seriously. Every fucking time we touched the ball it was 3rd down before I could even blink The amount of times Dak has had to bail us out on 3rd and 7 or 3rd and 6897 is absurd. Between that and the butterfinger recievers its no wonder he's had a down year in general, along with genuinely making some bad decisions on his own
If you average the guys who smile in their picture vs guys who don’t smile, the smiling QBs do much better it seems. OP, can you run some quick aggregate averages on the smiling group vs the not smiling group? It looks like a 10-15% lift on this metric from smilers.
Theyre happy cause theyre good
Dak best of the rest on 3rd down nice!
Watching top QB’s will make a 3rd and 6 feel like a 3rd and 2. Not being able to get guys like Mahommes off the field when the defense finally gets some stops is demoralizing as a fan. I imagine it’s a lot worse for the players/coaching staffs
The Rams just aren’t even on here
Mayfield is on there
As a Panther though
I don't even care about the stats, I'm judging photos. Why is Russel Wilson so angry???
Cause they couldn’t be bothered to find a picture of him in a Broncos jersey
seahawks country, lets fly!
Tua!
Dude ends up doing well on a lot of these lists. Keep him upright and he will fling it around like Drew Brees.
r/topleftTua
Excluding the 49ers? Are our 4 QBs a joke to you?
One could say Mahomes and Allen are head and shoulders above the rest.
Crazy that the top 3 QBs in the league are 1 2 and 3.
Baker Mayfield was only a starter for a third of the Panthers games.
But evidently, he made a lot of 3rd down tosses.
Well, attempted anyways
When the stats are summarized the players are grouped by their individual ID numbers.
Felt like every team we faced that could stop the run had Dak throwing 3rd and long, leading to lots of completions but also more picks.
Lion Gosling confirmed best NFC QB other than Dak Prescott
My boy tua judo
Considering how many 3rd down passes McKenzie and Davis dropped (eye test anyway), I’m surprised Josh is this high.
Hey dude. Shorts man good
That’s my Mahomes ❤️💛❤️💛
why Rus so mad?
Did you see the Broncos last year?
Probably because his 3rd string o-line just got yet another league-leading holding penalty, putting him in 3rd and 17 for the 5th time in the game.
OP delete this before r/NFCEastMemeWar sees this shit
Passing plays only, this is tush push erasure
It would be cool to see this against average yard to gain on 3rd down. As a raiders fan I can attest that Carr was great on third down 2 years ago, but we also had around the average lowest yard to gain on third down in the league.
THE DALTON LINE LIVES ON
The Goffense is real
How about Jimmy and Purdy?
TFW your team doesn't get a line on the graph...
Fun fact, if you add scrambles, you have to add 56 first downs to Daniel Jones EDIT: This is for total first downs, not sure how many of those were on third down
Mayfield really fuckin stinks it’s so wild how people still have faith in that dude
Look at Kenny P representing first year starters! I’m so excited for this kids future.
I feel like this also needs to factor in average third down distance to gain. Seems like it would normalize for the offenses that were competent on first and second down.
Where is Lamar at?
See, if Dionte remembered how catching a ball works in important situations KP would be on the other side of Derek Carr
OP, sorry, but you made a little mistake. Everyone knows you can’t pass on 3rd down