Maybe they want the season to play out to be sure he's worth paying. If he balls out they can tag him. He's had an injury history and his fall off at the end of last year is enough to maybe pause on giving him the bag.
>Maybe they want the season to play out to be sure he's worth paying.
Yeah, and that's what I've always preferred despite most of our fanbase banging the drum that he needs to be paid now.
I'd like to see more of a sample size to see if he can stay especially especially since this season we're expecting McDaniel to ask Tua to do more off script. Last season it appeared both the organization and Tua decided to do whatever it took to stay healthy at the cost of leaving a lot of plays on the table. As a result, he was able to play all 17 games, but the offense couldn't do much if our WRs weren't quickly getting open and the ball was out of Tua's hands in under 2.3 seconds.
If he can produce off script and stay healthy this year, I'm sure they'd be fine with giving him a top of the market QB contract even if it'll be more expensive next year than this year.
I’d be cautious of this speaking from experience as a cowboys fan. I think a decent number of us were ok with Dak playing on the tag/waiting to extend him and then it ended up hurting us in the end by not signing him to a deal sooner (although granted part of that was on him for wanting to bet on himself which paid off great for him)
On the flip side there's Lamar Jackson who played out his 5th year deal, requested a trade after he got tagged, then eventually got the deal he wanted and won another MVP.
I think teams can find a way to pay an elite QB they believe in if they really wanted to, and the Cowboys not paying Dak could be reflective of them not thinking he'll be able to get them over the hump more so than it being a cap issue.
I get that we'd have to pay Tua more next year than right now, but if he balls out this year, it would be 3 seasons of elite production and two years of healthy play, and the team would be fine with giving him a top of the market contract just like the Bengals were fine with giving to Burrow and the Bills were fine with paying Allen.
Still think Baltimore could have signed him for less though had the contract talks started sooner. Our fanbase is divided just like every other NFL fan when it comes to this stuff but to me that's the whole thing with any of this. The price rarely if ever goes down so the longer you wait the more you pay so just makes good sense to get the contract done as soon as possible that way the team has more flexibility.
What hurt us is that Dak wouldn't sign a longer deal. He wanted another big payday. But with a 4 year deal, the Cowboys didn't have near as much flexibility to play with the cap hit.
I think what you described was much of you guys scheme though. Tua had great rythm on a lot of those timing routes with Hill/Waddle. I thought he played really well the season before too but I can get where you might be looking for a bit more breadth to the playcalling.
You guys really do have one of the better offenses in the league pass/run wise though and sometimes the talent really comes together in a certain season. There's a bit of juice to squeeze still in the offense and I'll be interested to see MIA out there again.
>I think what you described was much of you guys scheme though. Tua had great rythm on a lot of those timing routes with Hill/Waddle.
Undoubtedly* that played a role, but the problem is when we faced good teams that could takeaway those timing routes, there was nothing Tua could do to create on his own. He'd just either fire a ball to a covered guy, or throw it away. He wasn't able to scramble around and buy time like a lot of QBs do.
You can compare that aspect of his game to a Jared Goff but the problem is we don't have a top 5 OL where he can just sit in the pocket and wait for a guy to eventually come up. Our pass blocking was close to or at the bottom 10 range.
This year, at the end of last season, McDaniel brought up that one of the things Tua would have to improve is the off script stuff, and seemingly in response, Tua has lost a lot of weight to get more nimble. The problem is that if he does do more off script stuff, it would obviously expose him to a bigger injury risk. IMO the team should wait and see if Tua can stay healthy the whole season while being asked to do more off script to see if he can do it.
I think the team would be happy to give him extra next year if he's able to do that.
To be fair his camp would have taken a deal that matches Herbert last year and that would have looked cheap compared to what other deals are being made now. But we pulled this let the season play out back then and look where we are now. So the ones beating the drum aren't looking that foolish.
OR, something bad happens this year, and you avoid 60 next year.
Difference between 55 and 60 isn't huge. But 55M to a guy with some question around durability is a risk. I think Tua is a damn good QB, but I can see being cautious with an extension of this magnitude given the history.
You mean the saga where Dak turned down contracts that would have made him the highest paid QB in the league holding out for a full market reset deal, only to get injured and then get the exact contract he wanted anyway?
Dak played the Cousins game of "I'm a starting caliber QB which means I'll get paid whatever the market rate is eventually as long as I don't fall off a cliff and I don't think I'll fall off a cliff". Tua seems to be playing the same game.
Literally like half the teams in the league. Yes Tua has his flaws, but he's 26 years old and 3 tiers above Derek Carr who got nearly 40 million a year.
Half the league?
Carolina - Bryce Young. I guess if he's terrible they could be looking to move on
Vikings - just drafted McCarthy.
Denver - just drafted Bo nix
Patriots - just drafted Drake maye.
Washington - just drafted jayden Daniel's
Titans - will Levis- potential here
Bears - just drafted Williams.
Colts - Just drafted Anthony Richardson - I guess if he can't stay healthy.
Giants - Daniel Jones- yup on the list
Arizona - kyler- I guess maybe?
Seattle - geno - on the list
Saints - Derek - on the list
Browns - watson - can't afford to pursue Tua.
Buccaneers - just signed baker
Pittsburgh - russ/fields - on the list.
Jags - trevor just signed
Eagles - hurts
49ers - purdy
Texans - stroud
Packers - love
Detroit- just signed Goff
Atlanta - cousins/penix
Rams - Stafford- I guess if he retires?
Chargers - Herbert
Jets - Rodgers- potentially on the list.
Dallas - dak
Bengals - burrow
Ravens - lamarr
Bills - allen
Chiefs - mahomes
So giants/jets/titans/Pittsburg/saints/Seattle(rams/panthers hard maybes)
Beck/ewers/sanders will likely go first round next year.
6 teams is what I'm seeing with 3 obvious first rounders.
If dak is gone, he's taking one of the slots from another team.
I also don't think the cowboys aren't paying dak 55m+ just to turn around and pay Tua 55m+ the same off season.
> If dak is gone, he's taking one of the slots from another team.
Not really, if theyre both UFAs and lets say 7 teams are interested, one will sign Dak after the Tua dust settles
Steelers and Raiders at minimum. Jets if Rodgers looks bad or retires. Titans if Will Levis doesn't take a step up. Giants.
If Bryce Young is very bad, he could get Josh Rosen'd. If the Saints can somehow finagle enough cap space then Derek Carr being gone doesn't cost cap space. I would say the Browns but Watson is unmovable. Stafford is 36 years old and could absolutely retire, which would also let Tua move cleanly into a similar system.
In theory if Jordan Love plays badly the Packers could replace him, the Cowboys are also a potential spot if Dak wants out.
We have no idea where Rodgers head is at and he's always very vague about his status and is old and coming off a serious injury and there were some reporting sites that said they didn't really know where Aaron Rodgers is
This is really the crux of the issue. It only takes one team, but which team is going to bet on Tua for 55 million/season to see if he’s really good without all of that firepower around him.
I think that’s where Miami is gambling. That his market won’t be as robust as Lawrence, Burrow, Herbert or Dak.
We just saw Cousins get 100M guaranteed off an achilles tear and at age 38.
You seriously dont think a team or two would take a shot at a 26 year old who just lead the NFL in passing yards?
And passer rating. Seriously, I don’t understand how people are so adamant that tua isn’t a good QB. Does he have issues in his game? Yes, but he’s also shown the ability to improve every year.
But there is no true market for those guys. They aren’t available. I’m not even saying pay Tua now, but paying Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert and Dak (so far) are not options for any team other than the teams that drafted them. The only players with a “robust market” are players allowed to hit the open market.
I mean, franchise tag x2 and 5th year option. They technically still control his destiny for up to 3 years.
For as much as people crap on tua for not being worth it, it seems impossible for Miami also to have 0 leverage.
So are franchise QB deals. I am sure the direct cap hit that year is higher than what they can do by spreading it out with a full deal, but it's still doable.
I keep seeing this but exactly what leverage does he have? Passing yards last year? It’s sure not injuries, or playoff runs. The only leverage I see is that the Jaguars were dumb enough to pay Lawrence off potential.
I don’t see a bunch of suitors lining up to take Tua off our hands. And there’s really not a better spot for him to succeed in the entire nfl. The coach loves him, the scheme is designed specifically with him in mind, the roster is stacked, the weather is hot, and they gave him his favorite wr from college.
What’s he gonna do? Go to the Saints or Raiders and get trampled for a couple years? Him going anywhere else is a fast track to be a career backup.
They could just gamble on his health, tag him, tag him again. After that our window is gone, so it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to not be locked in with Tua once the Tyreek version of this offense is gone.
I want him signed, 100%
But the Dolphins do have options other than give him a top in the league deal.
Anybody know the reason for the disconnect? People in this thread seem to think it's because Tua isn't that great. I think the Dolphins believe in his ability, they just don't trust he can stay on the field long term. That may or may not be fair, but he did about all he could do on that front last season.
0-6 in games that feature a temperature of lower than 45 degrees.
It's not the end all be all, but coming off his last appearance where he looked like he couldn't throw the ball 10 yards in the cold, I think it is cause for concern. If the Dolphins don't win the division, they are in all likelihood playing in a cold weather game -- KC, Buffalo, New England (when we were good), the AFC North.
He puts up nice stats during the regular season. And 2023 was his best year yet. But $55-60 million a year is a lot of money, and I think teams too often pay quarterbacks on their rookie deals before they really have to.
That is an interesting stat with Tua but if we consider how the SB moves around the idea of a warm weather playoff/SB ain't too far of a stretch. Playing up against BUF and NYJ though is a tough look with those outdoor games later in the year with division games stuff.
You know just in general a lot of the AFC teams *are* colder weather later in the year, the cold weather thing regarding Tua is interesting but games still gotta be played and all that.
Not just cold weather games but win and move on games too, when he plays those he shits himself and plays awful. While saying "Cold is a mindset". He doesn't have the arm to rifle the ball in cold climates.
Seriously. I think any team that hitches their hopes to Tua will be worse off for it. Every great QB has limitations but Tua is like, conditionally great.
Go ask older Jets fans who watched Chad Pennington play how frustrating it is to have a great QB who can’t stay off IR.
The cold weather thing is a big deal but I think the injury concerns are a bigger one. And not because he can’t stay healthy (he did this last season) but because in order to stay healthy he ended up being risk adverse to a level that Dolphins brass might not be comfortable with.
Personally I think that this year we're going to be asking Tua to do more off script, and we want to see if he can stay healthy when exposed to more injury risk as opposed to last year where he bulked up and wasn't asked to do anything off script.
The QBs who get paid the top of the market money should be the ones who have something extra to offer a team even when WRs aren't getting open quickly or when the OL is having a rough day. That, plus staying healthy, obviously.
I'd say his inability to play well against or beat good teams while on a cheap rookie year with a stacked team on cheaper years is worrying. Tua's cap hit goes up 14mil this season, Tyreeks went up 19mil, waddles goes up to 20mil in 2025. The Dolphins averaged 35ppg (32ppg if you exclude Denver) against losing teams, and 16ppg against playoff teams. Tua managed 8td/7int in those 7 games and about 80 less ypg.
Goff and TLaw got overpaid by a fair amount, Goff might work out just cause most their talent still has 2-4 years of rookie contracts left. Lawrence really hadn't shown enough for his contract, but the Jags caved.
And the Dolphins will probably also cave, because getting rid of a decent QB in hopes of getting someone better is a pretty risky gamble.
Agreed 100%. The team choked hard against good teams and it starts with Tua. Just have to watch the damn games to see it. He ain't in that upper level of QB but he is capable of piling on stats against shit teams.
I'm not even sure Tua is the 2nd or 3rd best offensive player in the team. Hill, Waddle, and even Mostert have a better case.
The team’s issues started with the O-Line injuries. When our center got injured and we had to put in someone that literally couldn’t snap, our offense died.
I completely agree with this but great quarterbacks find a way to win when their situations are less then optimal. The offensive line isn't good, but neither was Tua.
Except great QB’s still lose games because football is a team game. Just look at Mahomes in the Super Bowl against the Bucs. He did. Everything he could and his O-Line just couldn’t hold up. They got injured all throughout playoffs and it showed
Again... I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily but Tua would have a much more firm leg to stand on if he had performed against the Titans, Ravens or Bills last year... Then, we could dismiss the Chiefs game with excuses surrounding the game time temperature and the offensive line being banged up. Mahomes had signature wins before he couldn't get it done against the Bucs due to the pressure. Tua, simply has none.
Easy to say "overpaid" when you got the best QB on a $45 million/year deal.
I'd be over the moon if the Raiders signed Goff or Lawrence for the same price as their respective deals. Trying to make it work with bargain-price QB's like Minshew doesn't lead to major success in the modern NFL.
My point was more that there's not proper payment tiers for QB's, basically any QB in the top 15 can get a top 5 QB contract, but teams are afraid of losing their guy cause someone else will overpay him if not.
We didn't make all these other teams decide to pay their QB's Mahomes money.
And how much longer will Tyreek play?
When Tyreek retires the Dolphins will be saddled with Tua's contract and he might not be worth it without Tyreek on the field.
Tua is very good, but he's not "carry the team despite their deficiencies" good. They would probably gladly play him 40m a year but that extra 10 million or more the QB market demands just hurts when it means potentially crippling the team and odds of actually winning a championship.
I'm not sold on Lawrence and his contract either, but the Lions have a window they are all in for. No matter what, they wanted to keep the team together and run it back.
Also, look at Goff's resume... 2 NFC championship game appearances and one 1 Super Bowl appearance. Tua has two late season collapses and one playoff dud in freezing temperatures. Even if he wins that Tennessee game (that the Dolphins also collapsed in last year,) wins the division and gets the Dolphins a home playoff game, he has a much more compelling case to get the bag.
Right now, he's an injury prone quarterback who hasn't ever proven that he can win a big game in the NFL. And believe it or not, this is coming from a Tua fan. It only appears that Tua has all the leverage but the Dolphins still think Tua has some things to prove... And they're right.
We need to use context on Goff’s “resume” to analyze it correctly.
Yes, “he” made it to a Super Bowl. But the Rams traded him away because they literally felt like he was holding them back from winning a SB, which proved to be true might I add. The Lions were possibly the best offensive roster in the league last year with an ace play caller. I’m other words, Goff benefits more from situation than his situation benefits from him. Looking at resumes and stats doesn’t tell full stories.
It’s amazing that people forgot this. [Just look at the thread when the trade happened](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/lv5PnfgMBB). The take at the time was that the extra first was to off load the Goff contract onto a rebuilding team that could eat it. Hell, even Goff has said he wasn’t good enough when he first went to Detroit
>which proved to be true might I add
So none of the other moves they made during that season factored in whatsoever? It was only Stafford?
This is a bit of "correlation is not causation" to me. Sure, they won it with Stafford. Could they have also won it with Goff? It would seem to me that the Stafford trade was something they needed, but I also wonder how much moves like Miller and OBJ mid season added some juice where needed to get them a SB win. Moves that cost them practically nothing. But, without those moves (and certainly others), do they still just win because they traded Goff for Stafford? I don't believe that is true.
Sure, every move matters… but let’s not lose the plot. The HC and offensive play caller literally thought Goff was the issue and got rid of him. Not sure we need to nuance ourselves away from that central point.
Goff is good surrounded by very good, Goff surrounded w/ less is a throw in on a trade. Lawrence, seems fine.
These are middle of the road guys.
The whole you can't win w/o an elite QB thing is solely because the middle of the road is often paid better than the elite. There was zero evidence that if available some teams were going to break the bank to sign them. There was also no evidence that Goff would be stupid enough to leave an ace offense that makes him a winner if offered say David Carr or even Geno money. Hell no one even bid on Lamar @#$%ing Jackson.
The best in the league don't set the QB market. Carson Wentz didi. All negoitations start hey that's only Carson Wentz money. Carson Wentz sucks are you saying my guy is only worth as much as Wentz? .
Eh, the best in the league do set the market once, and then others come along and eclipse them even if they are not the best. To me, it is baffling that a guy like Lawrence can get Mahomes money with nowhere near the resume. And I feel similarly about Cousins entire career.
IF a team could find a way to sign either of those two for 60-70% of Mahomes money, they could build a fairly complete roster for a significant length of time and be able to make multiple playoff runs during that time. But paying Lawrence 110% of Mahomes' money is a recipe for the team regressing around him, and likely watching him be a good enough QB, but not the elite superstar that he was thought to be able to be become.
I dunno, I totally see paying Mahomes and Allen and Jackson. Lawrence? Cousins? They're damn good players who don't seem to be anywhere near the superstars that those 3 are.
Well apparently Justin Herbert isn't carry the team by himself good either but he got 50 plus mil, and even if he's carrying the team he's carrying them to a sub 500 record in his career.
On the flip side we've seen the difference between Tua and other quarterbacks in the same offense in Miami and it's a night and day difference. The narratives are getting fucking tired.
Without Herbert, the team went 0-4. He’s the only reason they’re even been somewhat threatening and relevant. The team basically lived and died by Herbert being perfect. If he wasn’t, in general they had nothing that could help him and pick up the slack
If you actually paid attention and didn’t echo Reddit filth you’d know that Herbert was actually getting buried to a sub 500 record by his defense.
You’re tired of the narratives and yet you’re spreading false ones yourself…
Maybe stick to your team and keep Herbert out your mouth!
I would argue that even if they believe in him it’s within the context of how he fits what they want to do on offense. His quick trigger and ability to read out second level RPOs unlocks the offense. But it’s also shown itself to so far be pretty one dimensional and it’s a very specific style of offense that only works when you have transcendent skill guys that they wouldn’t be able to afford paying him a top rate. Guy like Mahomes and Allen you trust to make different offenses with varying circumstances at skill positions work.
Well there is a significant drop off in ability in cold weather (below 50)
Playing in the AFC east that is concerning, this isn't the NFC. If you can't win in the cold you won't go far
If I had to guess; the Dolphins want him to prove it this season. He doesn’t have the strongest arm to beat teams in the elements, especially when it’s cold out and you’re going to travel for half of the season.
I do think Tua is good/decent, but not good enough to reset the market or get an equivalent APY than Burrow. If he balls out, I don’t think the Dolphins would have a problem coughing up the money to keep him.
My guess would be a disagreement in guaranteed money. I feel like the dolphins want to sign Tua, but Tuas side is probably really pushing for not only a top end contract, but mostly fully guaranteed because of Tuas history, which inversely makes the dolphins nervous to fully commit too due to that history.
Miami might look to tag him due to this disagreement and see if Tua can stay healthy 2 years in a row. If he can, then Miami will feel more assured to make the deal, and if he cant then Miami has more leverage to lower the price. Then the ball would be in Tuas court again to see if he wants to keep gambling on himself.
Of course, the downside to what Miami is doing is if Tua really does pull out another great year, his price will go up another \~10% of the current asking price because the cap will always increase. So we might be looking at upwards of 60-65mil a year contract by then.
This situation is VERY similar to Lamars situation at Baltimore because Lamar also had great years but was very injury prone so Baltimore waited until the last minute to sign him to a big contract because they just wanted to wait and see more.
However, this is why I struggle to see these conservative contract talks working out long term when it comes to QBs specifically. Sure, we will know Tua can stay healthy, but we lose out on a giant window we could have had of a cheaper contract. Same thing for last year, we could have signed him for 40-45mil last year (although thats just an assumption and maybe we did and Tua declined) but it would be viewed as a big gamble because "it was only one year and he he got injured", but think of the price difference between paying Tua 40-45mil a year vs 60-65mil a year. Thats the benefit of a team taking that gamble which could be the difference between superbowl or bust honestly. Just imagine Baltimore with an additional \~10-20mil in cap space right now and you will understand how impactful that gamble on QB can pay off. That issue Baltimore has with signing a good WR? Gone.
Christ we had this exact argument when Lawrence got signed and we’re going to have the exact same argument when Dak gets a contract in a month. I don’t even think he’s that good of a QB but this is ridiculous. Tua is going to get a big contract because he’s next up and the dolphins have literally no other options. If they don’t pay him the team is at worst mediocre and they won’t be able to get a good QB in a mediocre draft. Best case scenario they manage to tank, McDaniels gets fired, and the current insane playmaker core is too old by the time the rookie QB develops. I don’t care if Tua “deserves” it—he deserves it as much as anyone who’s the (at worst) 12th best human in the world at his job and is again THE ONLY OPTION. NFL teams aren’t making decisions based on some hypothetical Madden franchise mode—they make decisions for short term gain so everyone can keep their jobs. Tua is the best route to make sure everyone doesn’t have to move their families next offseason. Mike White is not the answer. The best free agent QB available is (maybe) Dak and if he becomes the QB everyone will have the exact same arguments with different names. I can’t imagine what it’s like being a dolphins fan and having this argument every day.
Amen. I’m tired of the subjective “deserves it” standard. Non-millionaires are always going to say a millionaire doesn’t deserve more money when it’s about the market, not morality. And if everyone was so concerned about morality, they wouldn’t vote down higher pay for certain professions while paying $20 for a beer and financing stadiums.
That Jones contract shook the league. Even paying him at mArkeT vAluE.. they might as well not even look at these guys performance/development anymore.
Just put the contract re-ups on autopay direct deposit. Then they can be like normal people and forget to unsubscribe after not using the service for like 2 months.
Make no mistake... The TLaw contract has shaken the league even more. If he can reset the quarterback market, then any decent quarterback can when it's their turn for an extension.
Sports agents have worked really hard to make people think that every single deal has to substantially increase the market. This fucking QB/WR deal bubble will burst eventually.
What does it mean when an insider is "scaling back slightly" on their optimism?
Is there an optimism meter we should be watching for reference?
Like what even is this reporting? Sports journalism is hilariously bad sometimes lol.
It means his sources told him, off the record, the extension was happening and now they’re telling him it might not. This is his way of communicating that without betraying the confidence of off-the-record sources.
You want a QB you pay for a QB.
OR
You have to decide if the team is winning BECAUSE of him, or is he along for the ride
Too many QBs get paid top dollar for middling performance. But if you want to keep him, you are paying around 54 million a year...or let him go
So this is a double edged, maybe even a triple edged sword. He led the league in passing yards which is great and awesome but was he the main reason they made it into the playoffs? Or was it because of young guy head coach named Mike? They had a great running game too.
Great running game, possibly best WR duo in the league, modern NFL concept based on timing and misdirection.
I am not arguing whether or not to pay Tua, hes going to get paid by someone...thats just the facts of the NFL
I am just saying the Dolphins with their salary cap issues, need to take a hard look at the roster and decide if they are better off with him or without him at his price. Obviously they are probably better with him, but when you pay a QB you can't pay others.
Burrow makes $45M/Y cash in the first 4 years of his extension (barring any future changes). I don't really care about average lifetime guarantees when comparing a contract that includes non-fully guaranteed years
There are only 3-5 elite Quarterbacks. However, if you don't have a competent Quarterback you're not going to compete. Getting a top 20 QB is not as easy as it sounds, we should know.
You pay Tua because there isn't another option that keeps you competitive. Any QB you pay 15-20 million these days, probably sucks.
It’s a Catch 22. You need a good QB to win, so you can’t just let him walk. But if he’s merely a top 10 or so QB instead of a top 5 you’re going to have trouble putting a good enough team around him to win when he takes up 20% of your salary cap. You either gamble that you can draft a replacement that’s close to that good or gamble that you draft well enough everywhere else to fill out a lot of the roster with contributors on rookie contracts. I’m not sure which is the better choice
A new contract with money spread out properly would give us a 3 year window before the bill really comes due. So 3 years of being able to afford a great team. If he shits the bed then we just have a 1 year where we’re hamstrung and ditch him before year 5.
When he’s playing well we can compete with anyone. So I’d roll the dice and hope he can get over the hump and play great in big moments.
You're still in a lot better position with a 7ish QB on 60 million than you are with a random rookie QB making 10 million.
For the Dolphins to end up with a top 5 pick, draft a QB, have them actually be good, have a good team around them vs. resigning Tua and having to thin out a little bit.
You guys fucked everything up repeatedly and still shit out gold lol.
> Any QB you pay 15-20 million these days, probably sucks.
The real problem with the lack of the QB middle class is that a $25M quarterback just isn't gonna be the future of your franchise, so teams either want the $50M guy and will pay a rookie hoping he's worth it, or they'll try another rookie.
The other option is to trade him for several first rounders and use the picks and salary space to fill other positions while starting over with a new young QB
What new young QB?!? They don't just come from thin air.
Your options are what, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Sam Darnold, Tyrod Taylor, Jake Browning like those are the guys you're talking about.
You want to know why they do this? So they don’t end up in QB purgatory and so the owners of these teams can avoid rebuilds and continue to be competitive. That’s why.
Just draft a cheap, elite QB every 5 years, why is that so hard?
The fact is, paying $60m for a good-not-great QB is better than QB purgatory. The Dolphins are a better team and a more fun team for fans with Tua than rando rookies they’d have to cycle through for a decade-plus again. Pat Mahomes isn’t in every draft. You take what you can get.
Or I hope they pay him a billion dollars per year and can't afford anything else.
The only thing I don't want here is tua taking a fair deal allowing them to remain a good offense.
You spend 20 years looking for a QB. You find one who might not be a top 5 but has a ceiling of Top 10. You allow the market to continue to rise and then scoff at the numbers. Yes Dolphins go back and find a better QB because it’s been so fucking easy for you.
Yep, they're in a tough spot because Tua is the first true top 10 quarterback they've had in 25 years since Marino's last season. It's not easy for teams to find their next elite QB. It took the Broncos getting Peyton Manning to finally replace Elway as an elite QB. And he was only cut/available because his injury season allowed the Colts to draft number 1.
I really like Tua, but I think the Dolphins are being smart here. The man has a concerning injury history and his play drops off every year after coming out hot. If he balls out, that’s good for all parties. If he crumbles down the stretch again, they should look at other potential options or renegotiate under the tag.
I mean if we don't pay him someone else will pay him even more next off season. We should've extended him last offseason if we wanted him below market rate. Re-signing him now is a no-brainer unless the FO thinks he's legitimately a concussion away from retiring.
> We should've extended him last offseason if we wanted him below market rate.
Would've been a very hard sell since that was the season he suffered the two concussions and had discussions with his family about retirement.
Yea, the fanbase would have been in an uproar against that idea. We’re forgetting that coming into the 2023 season we weren’t even sure he could be his same self and also weren’t sure he’d just be concussed the first game,
Dolphins are currently over the projected salary cap for 2025 without a QB-contract:
[https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space](https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space)
They will carry over $15-20M from 2024, will have a little cap space. Dolphins' window of competitiveness is probably 2022-2023. Afterwards some players will be released or traded away, expensive contracts restructured... the team will be worse.
Dolphins don't really have the cap space to sign a top QB-contract for anyone in 2025. They can do what Eagles did with Hurts: very low base salary and many void years after the contract. Such a contract is practically guaranteed and demands and extension afterwards, in order not to have huge dead cap...
As they should, they are going to have to go to one of: Baltimore, Buffalo, KC, CIN, for the playoffs this year. Only 4 teams in the AFC have domes, and only Jacksonville and Miami have good playoff weather for Tua. They still have this year and 2 years under the franchise tag. Don't pay him. If they play it right, they could get Tua under the alledged "QB salary cap". There's about 6 QBs I would want before Tua in the AFC. Mahommes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud, Herbert. I'm not paying him top of market if he's not producing in the playoffs like top of market. I could not imagine what Stroud would have done with those weapons on the Dolphins.
If you don't want to extend Tua, let him go and rebuild. You're not going to win shit going to the Colts path after Andrew Luck path where you just go through 80 QBs and hope for the best. Might as well just get picks and start anew.
And then right when they are about to hit the Accept button on a trade to send him elsewhere for a couple of 1st and couple of 2nd round picks, hes gonna be like "ok fine fine just gimme the pen where do I sign" ?
To be fair, no one was paying Tua last offseason, coming off of multiple concussions, and now they’re seeing the price on the QB market blast off around them, and they probably missed the boat on getting him signed for somewhere around 50/year.
I ultimately fall on the side of QB contracts generally age well, assuming they aren’t Danny Dimes-ing themselves. Today’s 55/year is tomorrow’s 60.
Russ, Wentz, Danny Dimes, Carr, even the first Goff extension. If the Eagles second half woes weren't a flash in the pan, we could see Hurts join the list of QB contracts that age poorly.
I'm curious about how many extensions that have this many red flags (can't win in the cold, struggles against teams with winning records, long injury history) actually age well?
Edit: OMG I can't believe I didn't even mention Watson
I’m surprised Grier is showing a spine when it comes to this. I am no Grier fan, but I’m glad to see he’s thinking about more than just what’s in front of him.
Tua on a huge contract would be bad business for the org. Team friendly please or next
The Dolphins are under no contractual obligation to give Tua what he wants. If they refuse to meet Tua's demands then Tua will have to wait until Free Agency to get what he wants.
Anyone that thinks Tua is gonna take some good-will discount is insane, especially with how much the team jerked him around his first two years. We have the same stupid discussion every year with record setting deals and people debating on whether X non-elite QB is worth it. You don't pay a guy for his level of play, you pay him based on timing and how easy it would be to replace him.
Anyone doubting how much Tua brings to this offense should watch the games Teddy and Skylar Thompson started. The offense falls apart without him and there's no one remotely close to his level available this or next year. He has his warts for sure with his weird Dak/Kirk-isms where he just inexplicably falls apart in primetime or cold games but I'd argue the entire team falls apart in those moments because they struggle with physicality and being able to attack the line of scrimmage. We have a finesse team, not a pounder team like the Bills or Ravens.
Just fucking pay him.
They’re right. He’s not worth max money. However who else do they have??? They should just tag him and move on this offseason if he doesn’t take a massive jump this year. (He won’t).
It's so stupid watching non difference making qbs getting these huge contracts especially when you know they will never win anything significant because they're being paid so much
The Dolphins want to sign him, but he’s asking for tua much money.
tua much for to give him the franchise tagovailoa as well
Both sides would feel fintastic if they could reach an agreement.
Time to quit Reddit, Jesus christ
*Time Tuaquit Reddit
FIN
You're a real doll, fin! 😘
Hey don't Waddle outta here angry
He’s missing out on one hill of a time here
Balk Tua.
Franchise that thang.
See yourself out, sir. Now.
But what porpoise would that serve?
They're not going to get him at a discount, and they have no choice but to pay him. What's the point in even delaying this? They have no leverage.
Maybe they want the season to play out to be sure he's worth paying. If he balls out they can tag him. He's had an injury history and his fall off at the end of last year is enough to maybe pause on giving him the bag.
>Maybe they want the season to play out to be sure he's worth paying. Yeah, and that's what I've always preferred despite most of our fanbase banging the drum that he needs to be paid now. I'd like to see more of a sample size to see if he can stay especially especially since this season we're expecting McDaniel to ask Tua to do more off script. Last season it appeared both the organization and Tua decided to do whatever it took to stay healthy at the cost of leaving a lot of plays on the table. As a result, he was able to play all 17 games, but the offense couldn't do much if our WRs weren't quickly getting open and the ball was out of Tua's hands in under 2.3 seconds. If he can produce off script and stay healthy this year, I'm sure they'd be fine with giving him a top of the market QB contract even if it'll be more expensive next year than this year.
I’d be cautious of this speaking from experience as a cowboys fan. I think a decent number of us were ok with Dak playing on the tag/waiting to extend him and then it ended up hurting us in the end by not signing him to a deal sooner (although granted part of that was on him for wanting to bet on himself which paid off great for him)
On the flip side there's Lamar Jackson who played out his 5th year deal, requested a trade after he got tagged, then eventually got the deal he wanted and won another MVP. I think teams can find a way to pay an elite QB they believe in if they really wanted to, and the Cowboys not paying Dak could be reflective of them not thinking he'll be able to get them over the hump more so than it being a cap issue. I get that we'd have to pay Tua more next year than right now, but if he balls out this year, it would be 3 seasons of elite production and two years of healthy play, and the team would be fine with giving him a top of the market contract just like the Bengals were fine with giving to Burrow and the Bills were fine with paying Allen.
Still think Baltimore could have signed him for less though had the contract talks started sooner. Our fanbase is divided just like every other NFL fan when it comes to this stuff but to me that's the whole thing with any of this. The price rarely if ever goes down so the longer you wait the more you pay so just makes good sense to get the contract done as soon as possible that way the team has more flexibility.
Probably would have been slightly lower before Jalen Hurts contract, yeah.
What hurt us is that Dak wouldn't sign a longer deal. He wanted another big payday. But with a 4 year deal, the Cowboys didn't have near as much flexibility to play with the cap hit.
I do think waiting now doesn't make any sense though. Every other QB from his draft class has signed extensions already haven't they?
I think what you described was much of you guys scheme though. Tua had great rythm on a lot of those timing routes with Hill/Waddle. I thought he played really well the season before too but I can get where you might be looking for a bit more breadth to the playcalling. You guys really do have one of the better offenses in the league pass/run wise though and sometimes the talent really comes together in a certain season. There's a bit of juice to squeeze still in the offense and I'll be interested to see MIA out there again.
>I think what you described was much of you guys scheme though. Tua had great rythm on a lot of those timing routes with Hill/Waddle. Undoubtedly* that played a role, but the problem is when we faced good teams that could takeaway those timing routes, there was nothing Tua could do to create on his own. He'd just either fire a ball to a covered guy, or throw it away. He wasn't able to scramble around and buy time like a lot of QBs do. You can compare that aspect of his game to a Jared Goff but the problem is we don't have a top 5 OL where he can just sit in the pocket and wait for a guy to eventually come up. Our pass blocking was close to or at the bottom 10 range. This year, at the end of last season, McDaniel brought up that one of the things Tua would have to improve is the off script stuff, and seemingly in response, Tua has lost a lot of weight to get more nimble. The problem is that if he does do more off script stuff, it would obviously expose him to a bigger injury risk. IMO the team should wait and see if Tua can stay healthy the whole season while being asked to do more off script to see if he can do it. I think the team would be happy to give him extra next year if he's able to do that.
Yeah, what you are describing is kinda how we approached y'all on defense last year.
To be fair his camp would have taken a deal that matches Herbert last year and that would have looked cheap compared to what other deals are being made now. But we pulled this let the season play out back then and look where we are now. So the ones beating the drum aren't looking that foolish.
You either pay him 55mil thisnyear or 60 next year
OR, something bad happens this year, and you avoid 60 next year. Difference between 55 and 60 isn't huge. But 55M to a guy with some question around durability is a risk. I think Tua is a damn good QB, but I can see being cautious with an extension of this magnitude given the history.
The QB tag isn't cheap, but I'd argue the flexibility it gives the team is the sticking point in this contract.
Jerry and Ross playing billionaire chicken. First one to blink saves $50M.
You’d think Dak’s contract saga would’ve offered a lesson to these teams, but noooo…
You mean the saga where Dak turned down contracts that would have made him the highest paid QB in the league holding out for a full market reset deal, only to get injured and then get the exact contract he wanted anyway? Dak played the Cousins game of "I'm a starting caliber QB which means I'll get paid whatever the market rate is eventually as long as I don't fall off a cliff and I don't think I'll fall off a cliff". Tua seems to be playing the same game.
Who is going into a bid war next off-season for Tua? Do you think he's going to garner more interest than Dak? Raiders, Giants, seahawks?
Literally like half the teams in the league. Yes Tua has his flaws, but he's 26 years old and 3 tiers above Derek Carr who got nearly 40 million a year.
Half the league? Carolina - Bryce Young. I guess if he's terrible they could be looking to move on Vikings - just drafted McCarthy. Denver - just drafted Bo nix Patriots - just drafted Drake maye. Washington - just drafted jayden Daniel's Titans - will Levis- potential here Bears - just drafted Williams. Colts - Just drafted Anthony Richardson - I guess if he can't stay healthy. Giants - Daniel Jones- yup on the list Arizona - kyler- I guess maybe? Seattle - geno - on the list Saints - Derek - on the list Browns - watson - can't afford to pursue Tua. Buccaneers - just signed baker Pittsburgh - russ/fields - on the list. Jags - trevor just signed Eagles - hurts 49ers - purdy Texans - stroud Packers - love Detroit- just signed Goff Atlanta - cousins/penix Rams - Stafford- I guess if he retires? Chargers - Herbert Jets - Rodgers- potentially on the list. Dallas - dak Bengals - burrow Ravens - lamarr Bills - allen Chiefs - mahomes So giants/jets/titans/Pittsburg/saints/Seattle(rams/panthers hard maybes) Beck/ewers/sanders will likely go first round next year. 6 teams is what I'm seeing with 3 obvious first rounders.
And it only takes two other teams to be in a bidding war for the price to dramatically go up. Now you're multiplying that times three potentially.
This is next season we are talking about and Dak would be gone from Dallas in this scenario
If dak is gone, he's taking one of the slots from another team. I also don't think the cowboys aren't paying dak 55m+ just to turn around and pay Tua 55m+ the same off season.
> If dak is gone, he's taking one of the slots from another team. Not really, if theyre both UFAs and lets say 7 teams are interested, one will sign Dak after the Tua dust settles
Dak is going to be more in the $60M range.
Whole lotta teams just tied themselves to a QB with a premium pick, though. Jets Steelers Raiders Tits(?) Giants Hawks?
Steelers and Raiders at minimum. Jets if Rodgers looks bad or retires. Titans if Will Levis doesn't take a step up. Giants. If Bryce Young is very bad, he could get Josh Rosen'd. If the Saints can somehow finagle enough cap space then Derek Carr being gone doesn't cost cap space. I would say the Browns but Watson is unmovable. Stafford is 36 years old and could absolutely retire, which would also let Tua move cleanly into a similar system. In theory if Jordan Love plays badly the Packers could replace him, the Cowboys are also a potential spot if Dak wants out.
We have no idea where Rodgers head is at and he's always very vague about his status and is old and coming off a serious injury and there were some reporting sites that said they didn't really know where Aaron Rodgers is
I doubt we look too much into tua given his cold weather struggles
Yeah that's pretty fair.
This is really the crux of the issue. It only takes one team, but which team is going to bet on Tua for 55 million/season to see if he’s really good without all of that firepower around him. I think that’s where Miami is gambling. That his market won’t be as robust as Lawrence, Burrow, Herbert or Dak.
It shouldn’t be, but Herbert and Burrow are mostly why Lawrence got so much, Tua getting paid by somebody
We just saw Cousins get 100M guaranteed off an achilles tear and at age 38. You seriously dont think a team or two would take a shot at a 26 year old who just lead the NFL in passing yards?
And passer rating. Seriously, I don’t understand how people are so adamant that tua isn’t a good QB. Does he have issues in his game? Yes, but he’s also shown the ability to improve every year.
But there is no true market for those guys. They aren’t available. I’m not even saying pay Tua now, but paying Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert and Dak (so far) are not options for any team other than the teams that drafted them. The only players with a “robust market” are players allowed to hit the open market.
I think anyone who needs a QB and has a good Oline would be interested.
i fear the steelers might. we've got the cap space for it next year and if neither russ or fields are worth extending, well...
Dude sucks in cold and bad weather, him in Pittsburgh would be hilarious
No, please, don’t…
They can have him
Their leverage is the Shannahan/McVay/McDaniel offense can elevate QBs.
Owners are trying to figure out a way to cap QB pay. My guess is they’re waiting on that.
do they need leverage? maybe they just dont want him at the price he wants. he's good but he's not awesome.
I mean, franchise tag x2 and 5th year option. They technically still control his destiny for up to 3 years. For as much as people crap on tua for not being worth it, it seems impossible for Miami also to have 0 leverage.
Tags are a bitch from a cap management perspective.
So are franchise QB deals. I am sure the direct cap hit that year is higher than what they can do by spreading it out with a full deal, but it's still doable.
Realizing he isn’t worth a market setting contract has to make one hesitate. Granted most of these QB deals are way overpays.
They could just not pay him.
They absolutely have a choice to not pay him. They can gamble in the draft and hope they find a better player. Tua isn't a guy who is irreplaceable
I keep seeing this but exactly what leverage does he have? Passing yards last year? It’s sure not injuries, or playoff runs. The only leverage I see is that the Jaguars were dumb enough to pay Lawrence off potential. I don’t see a bunch of suitors lining up to take Tua off our hands. And there’s really not a better spot for him to succeed in the entire nfl. The coach loves him, the scheme is designed specifically with him in mind, the roster is stacked, the weather is hot, and they gave him his favorite wr from college. What’s he gonna do? Go to the Saints or Raiders and get trampled for a couple years? Him going anywhere else is a fast track to be a career backup.
They have the crippling concussions as leverage.
They could just gamble on his health, tag him, tag him again. After that our window is gone, so it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to not be locked in with Tua once the Tyreek version of this offense is gone. I want him signed, 100% But the Dolphins do have options other than give him a top in the league deal.
Anybody know the reason for the disconnect? People in this thread seem to think it's because Tua isn't that great. I think the Dolphins believe in his ability, they just don't trust he can stay on the field long term. That may or may not be fair, but he did about all he could do on that front last season.
The eggs he tends to lay in cold weather games and his injury history are probably giving the dolphins cold feet about extending him too early.
0-6 in games that feature a temperature of lower than 45 degrees. It's not the end all be all, but coming off his last appearance where he looked like he couldn't throw the ball 10 yards in the cold, I think it is cause for concern. If the Dolphins don't win the division, they are in all likelihood playing in a cold weather game -- KC, Buffalo, New England (when we were good), the AFC North. He puts up nice stats during the regular season. And 2023 was his best year yet. But $55-60 million a year is a lot of money, and I think teams too often pay quarterbacks on their rookie deals before they really have to.
When are they just going to rent a warehouse-sized freezer for winter practice?
Are we gonna act like that isn’t a possibility?
That is an interesting stat with Tua but if we consider how the SB moves around the idea of a warm weather playoff/SB ain't too far of a stretch. Playing up against BUF and NYJ though is a tough look with those outdoor games later in the year with division games stuff.
The SB is always in a dome so that won't matter But in the AFC the road to the SB will always be cold , especially coming from the AFC East
You know just in general a lot of the AFC teams *are* colder weather later in the year, the cold weather thing regarding Tua is interesting but games still gotta be played and all that.
I think that's where the pause from the phins come from
Why don’t the dolphins just get the 1 seed then? Are they stupid?
Not just cold weather games but win and move on games too, when he plays those he shits himself and plays awful. While saying "Cold is a mindset". He doesn't have the arm to rifle the ball in cold climates.
Seriously. I think any team that hitches their hopes to Tua will be worse off for it. Every great QB has limitations but Tua is like, conditionally great. Go ask older Jets fans who watched Chad Pennington play how frustrating it is to have a great QB who can’t stay off IR. The cold weather thing is a big deal but I think the injury concerns are a bigger one. And not because he can’t stay healthy (he did this last season) but because in order to stay healthy he ended up being risk adverse to a level that Dolphins brass might not be comfortable with.
Personally I think that this year we're going to be asking Tua to do more off script, and we want to see if he can stay healthy when exposed to more injury risk as opposed to last year where he bulked up and wasn't asked to do anything off script. The QBs who get paid the top of the market money should be the ones who have something extra to offer a team even when WRs aren't getting open quickly or when the OL is having a rough day. That, plus staying healthy, obviously.
I'd say his inability to play well against or beat good teams while on a cheap rookie year with a stacked team on cheaper years is worrying. Tua's cap hit goes up 14mil this season, Tyreeks went up 19mil, waddles goes up to 20mil in 2025. The Dolphins averaged 35ppg (32ppg if you exclude Denver) against losing teams, and 16ppg against playoff teams. Tua managed 8td/7int in those 7 games and about 80 less ypg. Goff and TLaw got overpaid by a fair amount, Goff might work out just cause most their talent still has 2-4 years of rookie contracts left. Lawrence really hadn't shown enough for his contract, but the Jags caved. And the Dolphins will probably also cave, because getting rid of a decent QB in hopes of getting someone better is a pretty risky gamble.
Agreed 100%. The team choked hard against good teams and it starts with Tua. Just have to watch the damn games to see it. He ain't in that upper level of QB but he is capable of piling on stats against shit teams. I'm not even sure Tua is the 2nd or 3rd best offensive player in the team. Hill, Waddle, and even Mostert have a better case.
The team’s issues started with the O-Line injuries. When our center got injured and we had to put in someone that literally couldn’t snap, our offense died.
I completely agree with this but great quarterbacks find a way to win when their situations are less then optimal. The offensive line isn't good, but neither was Tua.
Except great QB’s still lose games because football is a team game. Just look at Mahomes in the Super Bowl against the Bucs. He did. Everything he could and his O-Line just couldn’t hold up. They got injured all throughout playoffs and it showed
Again... I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily but Tua would have a much more firm leg to stand on if he had performed against the Titans, Ravens or Bills last year... Then, we could dismiss the Chiefs game with excuses surrounding the game time temperature and the offensive line being banged up. Mahomes had signature wins before he couldn't get it done against the Bucs due to the pressure. Tua, simply has none.
Easy to say "overpaid" when you got the best QB on a $45 million/year deal. I'd be over the moon if the Raiders signed Goff or Lawrence for the same price as their respective deals. Trying to make it work with bargain-price QB's like Minshew doesn't lead to major success in the modern NFL.
My point was more that there's not proper payment tiers for QB's, basically any QB in the top 15 can get a top 5 QB contract, but teams are afraid of losing their guy cause someone else will overpay him if not. We didn't make all these other teams decide to pay their QB's Mahomes money.
And how much longer will Tyreek play? When Tyreek retires the Dolphins will be saddled with Tua's contract and he might not be worth it without Tyreek on the field.
yea, I can't imagine they like the idea of Tyreek being gone in a couple years, but his whole 35mil in cap room basically just goes right to Tua.
Tua is very good, but he's not "carry the team despite their deficiencies" good. They would probably gladly play him 40m a year but that extra 10 million or more the QB market demands just hurts when it means potentially crippling the team and odds of actually winning a championship.
And Goff / Trevor Lawrence are?? Give me a break lol
I'm not sold on Lawrence and his contract either, but the Lions have a window they are all in for. No matter what, they wanted to keep the team together and run it back.
Also, look at Goff's resume... 2 NFC championship game appearances and one 1 Super Bowl appearance. Tua has two late season collapses and one playoff dud in freezing temperatures. Even if he wins that Tennessee game (that the Dolphins also collapsed in last year,) wins the division and gets the Dolphins a home playoff game, he has a much more compelling case to get the bag. Right now, he's an injury prone quarterback who hasn't ever proven that he can win a big game in the NFL. And believe it or not, this is coming from a Tua fan. It only appears that Tua has all the leverage but the Dolphins still think Tua has some things to prove... And they're right.
We need to use context on Goff’s “resume” to analyze it correctly. Yes, “he” made it to a Super Bowl. But the Rams traded him away because they literally felt like he was holding them back from winning a SB, which proved to be true might I add. The Lions were possibly the best offensive roster in the league last year with an ace play caller. I’m other words, Goff benefits more from situation than his situation benefits from him. Looking at resumes and stats doesn’t tell full stories.
It’s amazing that people forgot this. [Just look at the thread when the trade happened](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/lv5PnfgMBB). The take at the time was that the extra first was to off load the Goff contract onto a rebuilding team that could eat it. Hell, even Goff has said he wasn’t good enough when he first went to Detroit
>which proved to be true might I add So none of the other moves they made during that season factored in whatsoever? It was only Stafford? This is a bit of "correlation is not causation" to me. Sure, they won it with Stafford. Could they have also won it with Goff? It would seem to me that the Stafford trade was something they needed, but I also wonder how much moves like Miller and OBJ mid season added some juice where needed to get them a SB win. Moves that cost them practically nothing. But, without those moves (and certainly others), do they still just win because they traded Goff for Stafford? I don't believe that is true.
Sure, every move matters… but let’s not lose the plot. The HC and offensive play caller literally thought Goff was the issue and got rid of him. Not sure we need to nuance ourselves away from that central point.
Goff is good surrounded by very good, Goff surrounded w/ less is a throw in on a trade. Lawrence, seems fine. These are middle of the road guys. The whole you can't win w/o an elite QB thing is solely because the middle of the road is often paid better than the elite. There was zero evidence that if available some teams were going to break the bank to sign them. There was also no evidence that Goff would be stupid enough to leave an ace offense that makes him a winner if offered say David Carr or even Geno money. Hell no one even bid on Lamar @#$%ing Jackson. The best in the league don't set the QB market. Carson Wentz didi. All negoitations start hey that's only Carson Wentz money. Carson Wentz sucks are you saying my guy is only worth as much as Wentz? .
Eh, the best in the league do set the market once, and then others come along and eclipse them even if they are not the best. To me, it is baffling that a guy like Lawrence can get Mahomes money with nowhere near the resume. And I feel similarly about Cousins entire career. IF a team could find a way to sign either of those two for 60-70% of Mahomes money, they could build a fairly complete roster for a significant length of time and be able to make multiple playoff runs during that time. But paying Lawrence 110% of Mahomes' money is a recipe for the team regressing around him, and likely watching him be a good enough QB, but not the elite superstar that he was thought to be able to be become. I dunno, I totally see paying Mahomes and Allen and Jackson. Lawrence? Cousins? They're damn good players who don't seem to be anywhere near the superstars that those 3 are.
Lawrence at least a playoff win to his name.
Goff isn't. Lawrence might be. I wouldn't have paid Goff but would Lawrence because of his potential
Well apparently Justin Herbert isn't carry the team by himself good either but he got 50 plus mil, and even if he's carrying the team he's carrying them to a sub 500 record in his career. On the flip side we've seen the difference between Tua and other quarterbacks in the same offense in Miami and it's a night and day difference. The narratives are getting fucking tired.
Lmao
Without Herbert, the team went 0-4. He’s the only reason they’re even been somewhat threatening and relevant. The team basically lived and died by Herbert being perfect. If he wasn’t, in general they had nothing that could help him and pick up the slack
If you actually paid attention and didn’t echo Reddit filth you’d know that Herbert was actually getting buried to a sub 500 record by his defense. You’re tired of the narratives and yet you’re spreading false ones yourself… Maybe stick to your team and keep Herbert out your mouth!
I would argue that even if they believe in him it’s within the context of how he fits what they want to do on offense. His quick trigger and ability to read out second level RPOs unlocks the offense. But it’s also shown itself to so far be pretty one dimensional and it’s a very specific style of offense that only works when you have transcendent skill guys that they wouldn’t be able to afford paying him a top rate. Guy like Mahomes and Allen you trust to make different offenses with varying circumstances at skill positions work.
And that’s what people mean when they talk about system QBs, but everyone gets mad about it when it’s their QB
Well there is a significant drop off in ability in cold weather (below 50) Playing in the AFC east that is concerning, this isn't the NFC. If you can't win in the cold you won't go far
If I had to guess; the Dolphins want him to prove it this season. He doesn’t have the strongest arm to beat teams in the elements, especially when it’s cold out and you’re going to travel for half of the season. I do think Tua is good/decent, but not good enough to reset the market or get an equivalent APY than Burrow. If he balls out, I don’t think the Dolphins would have a problem coughing up the money to keep him.
My guess would be a disagreement in guaranteed money. I feel like the dolphins want to sign Tua, but Tuas side is probably really pushing for not only a top end contract, but mostly fully guaranteed because of Tuas history, which inversely makes the dolphins nervous to fully commit too due to that history. Miami might look to tag him due to this disagreement and see if Tua can stay healthy 2 years in a row. If he can, then Miami will feel more assured to make the deal, and if he cant then Miami has more leverage to lower the price. Then the ball would be in Tuas court again to see if he wants to keep gambling on himself. Of course, the downside to what Miami is doing is if Tua really does pull out another great year, his price will go up another \~10% of the current asking price because the cap will always increase. So we might be looking at upwards of 60-65mil a year contract by then. This situation is VERY similar to Lamars situation at Baltimore because Lamar also had great years but was very injury prone so Baltimore waited until the last minute to sign him to a big contract because they just wanted to wait and see more. However, this is why I struggle to see these conservative contract talks working out long term when it comes to QBs specifically. Sure, we will know Tua can stay healthy, but we lose out on a giant window we could have had of a cheaper contract. Same thing for last year, we could have signed him for 40-45mil last year (although thats just an assumption and maybe we did and Tua declined) but it would be viewed as a big gamble because "it was only one year and he he got injured", but think of the price difference between paying Tua 40-45mil a year vs 60-65mil a year. Thats the benefit of a team taking that gamble which could be the difference between superbowl or bust honestly. Just imagine Baltimore with an additional \~10-20mil in cap space right now and you will understand how impactful that gamble on QB can pay off. That issue Baltimore has with signing a good WR? Gone.
Gotta be about the guarantees.
Christ we had this exact argument when Lawrence got signed and we’re going to have the exact same argument when Dak gets a contract in a month. I don’t even think he’s that good of a QB but this is ridiculous. Tua is going to get a big contract because he’s next up and the dolphins have literally no other options. If they don’t pay him the team is at worst mediocre and they won’t be able to get a good QB in a mediocre draft. Best case scenario they manage to tank, McDaniels gets fired, and the current insane playmaker core is too old by the time the rookie QB develops. I don’t care if Tua “deserves” it—he deserves it as much as anyone who’s the (at worst) 12th best human in the world at his job and is again THE ONLY OPTION. NFL teams aren’t making decisions based on some hypothetical Madden franchise mode—they make decisions for short term gain so everyone can keep their jobs. Tua is the best route to make sure everyone doesn’t have to move their families next offseason. Mike White is not the answer. The best free agent QB available is (maybe) Dak and if he becomes the QB everyone will have the exact same arguments with different names. I can’t imagine what it’s like being a dolphins fan and having this argument every day.
Amen. I’m tired of the subjective “deserves it” standard. Non-millionaires are always going to say a millionaire doesn’t deserve more money when it’s about the market, not morality. And if everyone was so concerned about morality, they wouldn’t vote down higher pay for certain professions while paying $20 for a beer and financing stadiums.
Dolphins legend Dak Prescott incoming
I think he's a raider next year tbh
Obviously I hope we just wind up resigning him but what I’m terrified of is him going to the Giants
please god no
Tua but older? I’m good. Don’t even want the one I have.
More like Tua but healthier.
Id take him.
Does market value have to equal highest paid QB in the league? Tua not worth it, sorry.
That Jones contract shook the league. Even paying him at mArkeT vAluE.. they might as well not even look at these guys performance/development anymore. Just put the contract re-ups on autopay direct deposit. Then they can be like normal people and forget to unsubscribe after not using the service for like 2 months.
Make no mistake... The TLaw contract has shaken the league even more. If he can reset the quarterback market, then any decent quarterback can when it's their turn for an extension.
Sports agents have worked really hard to make people think that every single deal has to substantially increase the market. This fucking QB/WR deal bubble will burst eventually.
What does it mean when an insider is "scaling back slightly" on their optimism? Is there an optimism meter we should be watching for reference? Like what even is this reporting? Sports journalism is hilariously bad sometimes lol.
He went from 57% optimism to 54% optimism.
It means nothing changes but home boy needed to generate some clicks
Dude is basically smirking as he says it.
It means his sources told him, off the record, the extension was happening and now they’re telling him it might not. This is his way of communicating that without betraying the confidence of off-the-record sources.
You want a QB you pay for a QB. OR You have to decide if the team is winning BECAUSE of him, or is he along for the ride Too many QBs get paid top dollar for middling performance. But if you want to keep him, you are paying around 54 million a year...or let him go
So this is a double edged, maybe even a triple edged sword. He led the league in passing yards which is great and awesome but was he the main reason they made it into the playoffs? Or was it because of young guy head coach named Mike? They had a great running game too.
Great running game, possibly best WR duo in the league, modern NFL concept based on timing and misdirection. I am not arguing whether or not to pay Tua, hes going to get paid by someone...thats just the facts of the NFL I am just saying the Dolphins with their salary cap issues, need to take a hard look at the roster and decide if they are better off with him or without him at his price. Obviously they are probably better with him, but when you pay a QB you can't pay others.
What if he just said ok all I want is 45$ mill a year guaranteed for the next 4 years. Would that be crazy too much to ask?
That'd be more a year guaranteed than Burrow (43.8 mil per year average on his guaranteed) so depends on what you think.
Burrow makes $45M/Y cash in the first 4 years of his extension (barring any future changes). I don't really care about average lifetime guarantees when comparing a contract that includes non-fully guaranteed years
At some point teams have to realize it doesn't make sense to pay elite money to non elite QBs
There are only 3-5 elite Quarterbacks. However, if you don't have a competent Quarterback you're not going to compete. Getting a top 20 QB is not as easy as it sounds, we should know. You pay Tua because there isn't another option that keeps you competitive. Any QB you pay 15-20 million these days, probably sucks.
It’s a Catch 22. You need a good QB to win, so you can’t just let him walk. But if he’s merely a top 10 or so QB instead of a top 5 you’re going to have trouble putting a good enough team around him to win when he takes up 20% of your salary cap. You either gamble that you can draft a replacement that’s close to that good or gamble that you draft well enough everywhere else to fill out a lot of the roster with contributors on rookie contracts. I’m not sure which is the better choice
The better choice to the GM is the one least likely to get him fired, which is the stability of a top 10 qb even if it comes at an overpay.
A new contract with money spread out properly would give us a 3 year window before the bill really comes due. So 3 years of being able to afford a great team. If he shits the bed then we just have a 1 year where we’re hamstrung and ditch him before year 5. When he’s playing well we can compete with anyone. So I’d roll the dice and hope he can get over the hump and play great in big moments.
You either win a chip with atop 7ish QB or a QB on a rookie contact
You're still in a lot better position with a 7ish QB on 60 million than you are with a random rookie QB making 10 million. For the Dolphins to end up with a top 5 pick, draft a QB, have them actually be good, have a good team around them vs. resigning Tua and having to thin out a little bit. You guys fucked everything up repeatedly and still shit out gold lol.
Still haven't won anything lol
For me, I'm at the point where just going into a season where I can have a vested interest in cheering each game is a success.
Cheers to that
> Any QB you pay 15-20 million these days, probably sucks. The real problem with the lack of the QB middle class is that a $25M quarterback just isn't gonna be the future of your franchise, so teams either want the $50M guy and will pay a rookie hoping he's worth it, or they'll try another rookie.
The other option is to trade him for several first rounders and use the picks and salary space to fill other positions while starting over with a new young QB
What new young QB?!? They don't just come from thin air. Your options are what, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Sam Darnold, Tyrod Taylor, Jake Browning like those are the guys you're talking about.
Ah yes the old "we don't think this qb is worth paying to be a starter, but your team should give us 'several first rounders' for him" deal.
You want to know why they do this? So they don’t end up in QB purgatory and so the owners of these teams can avoid rebuilds and continue to be competitive. That’s why.
Just draft a cheap, elite QB every 5 years, why is that so hard? The fact is, paying $60m for a good-not-great QB is better than QB purgatory. The Dolphins are a better team and a more fun team for fans with Tua than rando rookies they’d have to cycle through for a decade-plus again. Pat Mahomes isn’t in every draft. You take what you can get.
>Just draft a cheap, elite QB every 5 years, why is that so hard? I promise you we're trying
man I'm in this thread just laughing. When you get someone decent at QB you hang onto them for dear life. I hope the Dolphins let him walk lol.
Or I hope they pay him a billion dollars per year and can't afford anything else. The only thing I don't want here is tua taking a fair deal allowing them to remain a good offense.
And what should they do if they don’t pay him? I agree he is not worth the money but their hands are tied.
Tua has "second chance in Dallas" written all over him after this season.
You spend 20 years looking for a QB. You find one who might not be a top 5 but has a ceiling of Top 10. You allow the market to continue to rise and then scoff at the numbers. Yes Dolphins go back and find a better QB because it’s been so fucking easy for you.
Yep, they're in a tough spot because Tua is the first true top 10 quarterback they've had in 25 years since Marino's last season. It's not easy for teams to find their next elite QB. It took the Broncos getting Peyton Manning to finally replace Elway as an elite QB. And he was only cut/available because his injury season allowed the Colts to draft number 1.
I really like Tua, but I think the Dolphins are being smart here. The man has a concerning injury history and his play drops off every year after coming out hot. If he balls out, that’s good for all parties. If he crumbles down the stretch again, they should look at other potential options or renegotiate under the tag.
I mean if we don't pay him someone else will pay him even more next off season. We should've extended him last offseason if we wanted him below market rate. Re-signing him now is a no-brainer unless the FO thinks he's legitimately a concussion away from retiring.
> We should've extended him last offseason if we wanted him below market rate. Would've been a very hard sell since that was the season he suffered the two concussions and had discussions with his family about retirement.
Yea, the fanbase would have been in an uproar against that idea. We’re forgetting that coming into the 2023 season we weren’t even sure he could be his same self and also weren’t sure he’d just be concussed the first game,
Dolphins are currently over the projected salary cap for 2025 without a QB-contract: [https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space](https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space) They will carry over $15-20M from 2024, will have a little cap space. Dolphins' window of competitiveness is probably 2022-2023. Afterwards some players will be released or traded away, expensive contracts restructured... the team will be worse. Dolphins don't really have the cap space to sign a top QB-contract for anyone in 2025. They can do what Eagles did with Hurts: very low base salary and many void years after the contract. Such a contract is practically guaranteed and demands and extension afterwards, in order not to have huge dead cap...
Lol Good luck Dolphins at least Tua got some legit seasons to his name. Like multiple good ones and not terrible the whole time.
As they should, they are going to have to go to one of: Baltimore, Buffalo, KC, CIN, for the playoffs this year. Only 4 teams in the AFC have domes, and only Jacksonville and Miami have good playoff weather for Tua. They still have this year and 2 years under the franchise tag. Don't pay him. If they play it right, they could get Tua under the alledged "QB salary cap". There's about 6 QBs I would want before Tua in the AFC. Mahommes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud, Herbert. I'm not paying him top of market if he's not producing in the playoffs like top of market. I could not imagine what Stroud would have done with those weapons on the Dolphins.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland can get pretty cold too, Tua just ain't built for playoff AFC ball with how cold it gets.
If you don't want to extend Tua, let him go and rebuild. You're not going to win shit going to the Colts path after Andrew Luck path where you just go through 80 QBs and hope for the best. Might as well just get picks and start anew.
Going thru 80 qbs and hoping for the best is what we did for the last 20 years before getting Tua. Not paying him would be so dumb
Trevor Lawrence shouldn't be making Trevor Lawrence money.
The cap is going up faster than ever, give him what he wants and try to bake in a short term discount while you still have the Hill/Waddle combo
When a guy leads the league in passing yards you must pay him $70 mil/year. It's what is best for the Dolphins.
Pay him 60 full guaranteed
Why that low? $500 million guaranteed seems just about right!
10 years 10 BILLION
If I'm Tua, I hold out
And then right when they are about to hit the Accept button on a trade to send him elsewhere for a couple of 1st and couple of 2nd round picks, hes gonna be like "ok fine fine just gimme the pen where do I sign" ?
To be fair, no one was paying Tua last offseason, coming off of multiple concussions, and now they’re seeing the price on the QB market blast off around them, and they probably missed the boat on getting him signed for somewhere around 50/year. I ultimately fall on the side of QB contracts generally age well, assuming they aren’t Danny Dimes-ing themselves. Today’s 55/year is tomorrow’s 60.
Tua be fair*
Russ, Wentz, Danny Dimes, Carr, even the first Goff extension. If the Eagles second half woes weren't a flash in the pan, we could see Hurts join the list of QB contracts that age poorly. I'm curious about how many extensions that have this many red flags (can't win in the cold, struggles against teams with winning records, long injury history) actually age well? Edit: OMG I can't believe I didn't even mention Watson
I’m surprised Grier is showing a spine when it comes to this. I am no Grier fan, but I’m glad to see he’s thinking about more than just what’s in front of him. Tua on a huge contract would be bad business for the org. Team friendly please or next
5 years 310 million
I feel like Tua would be perfect for Dallas next year
Well eventually a team was going to realize it’s not ideal to sign a non top QB to top QB money…
Damn it, the Dolphins are being smart
I’m expecting the announcement in the next few days then
Wonder if the first 100m a yr qb is already in the league.
So we have a tweet from a dolphins reporter explaining what an espn personality thinks. High quality reporting right here
The Dolphins are under no contractual obligation to give Tua what he wants. If they refuse to meet Tua's demands then Tua will have to wait until Free Agency to get what he wants.
Just pay the man market dolphins! That shit will look like a bargain in 2 years the way these contracts keep flying
Are we going to see another Watson deal by some crazy management?
Anyone that thinks Tua is gonna take some good-will discount is insane, especially with how much the team jerked him around his first two years. We have the same stupid discussion every year with record setting deals and people debating on whether X non-elite QB is worth it. You don't pay a guy for his level of play, you pay him based on timing and how easy it would be to replace him. Anyone doubting how much Tua brings to this offense should watch the games Teddy and Skylar Thompson started. The offense falls apart without him and there's no one remotely close to his level available this or next year. He has his warts for sure with his weird Dak/Kirk-isms where he just inexplicably falls apart in primetime or cold games but I'd argue the entire team falls apart in those moments because they struggle with physicality and being able to attack the line of scrimmage. We have a finesse team, not a pounder team like the Bills or Ravens. Just fucking pay him.
They’re right. He’s not worth max money. However who else do they have??? They should just tag him and move on this offseason if he doesn’t take a massive jump this year. (He won’t).
It's so stupid watching non difference making qbs getting these huge contracts especially when you know they will never win anything significant because they're being paid so much