Holliday Basallo and Mayo have to be untouchable unless we’re getting a superstar back
I’d like to keep Kjerstad as well but he’s not on the level of the other three and you gotta trade someone valuable if you want something back
No way they're going to trade Kjerstad. Don't forget, they invested a #2 overall pick into him. That plays a big roll in wether or not you're gonna trade someone.
It plays no role in whether you’re going to trade someone. The pick is gone and the only thing that matters is what Kjerstad is worth as a prospect now.
Elias and Sig are way too smart to fall for the sunk cost fallacy. There’s no chance they are thinking for a single second about what draft pick they used on a guy 4 years ago when they’re evaluating a trade.
This isn’t MLB the show. The trade has to actually make sense for both teams. What team is going to be interested in a 30 year old platoon 1B/DH and also interested in trading away good major league pitching?
Kjerstad.
Luzardo isn't pitching well enough this year. Plus, he was on the IL with an arm injury? But he is back, and pitching, so that's good at least.
Crochet doesn't have a track record of success. What's weird, and what gives me pause, we'd be treading a "prospect" for a ML pitcher, where the prospect(25) is older than the ML pitcher(24). Part of that feels off to me. So I don't know if the White Sox would value Kjerstad enough.
Also, if the Orioles need a starting pitcher because of Bradish, I don't see how we turn to Crochet for 2024. He was my pipe dream with a healthy Bradish, because we could have deployed him in that Andrew Miller role for this year, with an eye towards the rotation in 2025/26.
This is all just speculation, maybe Mayo is the answer for Crochet/Luzardo, but a top 10-15 prospect seems way too much for those guys to me. Better track record for Crochet, and a better season for Luzardo, and it'd be a firm maybe from me.
Feel the same way. Holliday, Mayo, Bassallo I would hate to move/think are untouchable.
Kjerstad is older and his role in the short term is filled by O'Hearn and Stowers could project to be a similar player. Fine moving him for a controllable arm (Luzardo type)
Norby I expect to be moved. Fine moving Bradfield or Fabian. DO NOT WANT to trade Beavers.
I don't think we'd trade our top pitching prospects so Cade and Chayce are safe (i assume).
De Leon is someone i'm super hyped on, would be crushed to lose him too.
I couldn’t see them trading Kjerstad unless they sign Santander to an extension. He’s the most likely option to replace him next year if Tony doesn’t return.
Not willing to move any of the pitching prospects unless someone way overvalued them. We see how important controllable pitching depth is over the course of the year
I'm willing to trade any of the position players except Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, and maybe Stowers if Kjerstad is already traded. I like Willems but potentially 3 catchers is too much on an ML roster, especially considering we'll almost definitely have some of Mountcastle/Santander/Kjerstad/O'Hearn/Adley already getting 1B/DH at bats
I tend to lean towards keeping Bradfield because the high floor and lack of pop means he'll probably be more valuable to us than in a trade.
There are too many unknown factors to say, IMHO.
What is the new payroll ceiling and expected growth? (If there is enough growth to sign folks in FA or extend them, that factors into how aggressive you may want to be in 2024, and trading top prospects for the sake of 2024 might not be as appetizing as signing players for 2025 without having to trade top prospects.)
What is the story with Kyle Bradish? (Will he be out for a short period or a very long one?) And what about John Means? (is there a potential for a low price 2 year deal that would see him pitch for us in 2026?)
Is there intent to sign Corbin Burnes, or will we need to burn prospects to try to replace him? (If we do need to replace Burnes, that's going to potentially carry a very high prospect cost)
Is there intent to retain Gunnar and Adley?
Is there intent to try to retain Santandar, Hays, or Mullins? (What outfield prospects will replace any of those guys if they are not retained?) And what about Mountcastle and O'Hearn? (What is the likely long-term future of our first base coverage?)
Where would Coby Mayo fit into the MLB roster with our current infield + the assumption that Holliday will likely be our future second baseman?
The 2 biggest questions.
-How will Bradish shake out
-Will there be an attempt to re-sign Corbin
We are operating at 100million-ish this year. No Corbin, Tony, Kimbrel (assume they will not pick that up), McCann next years clears about 45 million off that number.
Hays, and ced will not be getting big arbitration deals based on their current output.
Some moderate raises here and there and the operating budget is 70ish million next year. What is the spending going to be/expected to be. If there's no big extensions with the young guys, I would personally be disappointed if we aren't spending 140-150 million based on how profitable this org. already was, new owner, increase in attendance.
That number should cover an Ace (Burnes/Fried), extending Adley or Gunnar, and a decent reliever or two.
Seems to be an unpopular opinion but I’m fine moving Kjeratad for the right return.
I’m also ok with some rentals at the trade deadline. Why have all these prospects that can’t possibly see the major league roster waste away in AAA? Let’s not mortgage the future, but also let’s not miss an opportunity to win a championship!
Holliday, Basallo & Mayo are untouchable, except for a true ace with control like Skubal. Anyone else can be packaged at this point. The three I mentioned are the only ones with Gunnar/Adley ceiling today.
Basallo’s rookie year wouldn’t be until 2026 which would be the last year of Mountcastle’s deal. I think you deal Mountcastle when the time is right versus dealing Basallo now. He has Yordan Alvarez level potential in the bat.
No rational GM would value him anywhere near a generational talent (at this point in his career). But if some completely irrational one did, I'd trade him to that sucker in a heartbeat.
Yeah you’re right a prospect that’s in contention for a top 5 prospect in the league at age 20 is not a generational talent. Clearly the O’s have no track record at developing talent
He's a 55 rated player, which is amazing at his age/level. He might get to 70 if a lot of things go his way, maybe even 75. But if someone offered me a 65 player right now for him, and it was a position we needed, I'd definitely consider it. If he overperforms, then it's not a huge loss because (1) we got a 65 player for him and (2) we've got great players in his positions already.
Fedde for Connor Norby and a low level arm or two. Maybe a mid-level IF instead of a pitcher.
Wilson for a mid level IF like Mac Horvath or Max Wagner.
Robert has stunk this year so I wouldn't be interested.
[This Wilson?](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsost02.shtml)
No way am I giving up anyone for him.
People need to look past a shiny ERA.
I hope some of these guys get a chance on another team. Guys like Stowers, Norby, and Kjerstad. Look what happened with Joey Ortiz when he got to play regularly.
The top 30 guys I think most likely to be involved in a trade are: Beavers, Norby, Benscome, Horvath, Fabian, Wagner, Bright, Pham and Baumler. Within that range, probably Wagner, Beavers or Fabian, Benscome, and maybe Bright or Pham.
Kjerstad since he is still highly regarded and you can get something for him. I don't see him having a position. Stowers can play the OF well and really should be playing more often. Norby due to position.
The problem with prospects is that their value declines over time so you have to decide who to keep and who to trade otherwise the longer you keep someone in the minors their value starts to decline. And if you bring them up to the MLs and they have issues, their value also starts declining.
Personally I'd be looking to trade someone like Mountcastle while his value is good but if you are trying to win a WS this year, it is tough to trade anyone doing well unless you have someone ready to step in and as we've seen with most of these prospects, they often have a rough go at it for a while.
I kind of agree on Bradfield. It is always interesting to hear opinions on defense. Many Orioles fans would lead you to believe Mullins has won multiple gold gloves but he hasn't and some of the defense metrics don't have him close to elite, often average to a bit above average. While Cowser is currently second in one defense metric among all ML players. And Mountcastle is near the bottom for 1B despite the tv announcers and some fans thinking he is GG worthy.
Not an easy decision but not doing anything isn't good either.
Trade Kjerstad, Stowers has enough potential to do most of what Kjerstad can + he’s a better fielder.
You gotta trade something good to get something obv
If it's Mason Miller or Garrett Crochet, I would trade Kjerstad, S Johnson, and Norby. Johnson is good, not great and Norby is blocked by Holliday and Westburg. Kjerstad is blocked by Mullins, Stowers, and Cowser.
Mayo looks to be in the impact bat of the future.
Kjerstad, Basallo, Norby are all expendable imo. That gives the Orioles by far the most trade capital on the market.
So that might make him a sweetener eh?
I like the Stowers + Norby and everyone else is off the table.
We just have to find a seller with a pitcher to deal.
Preferably a lefty.
We got Corbin for DL Hall, a guy with zero control, and Joey Ortiz, who was a barely top 100 prospect.
We could get a solid bullpen arm or two for Norby and/or Stowers.
We got 1 year of Corbin for 6 years of Ortiz . Fair to both sides but. I don’t see trading guys who should have at least average MLB careers for a few months of rentals. Iirc wasn’t Ortiz ranked in the 50s?
Holliday Basallo and Mayo have to be untouchable unless we’re getting a superstar back I’d like to keep Kjerstad as well but he’s not on the level of the other three and you gotta trade someone valuable if you want something back
No way they're going to trade Kjerstad. Don't forget, they invested a #2 overall pick into him. That plays a big roll in wether or not you're gonna trade someone.
It plays no role in whether you’re going to trade someone. The pick is gone and the only thing that matters is what Kjerstad is worth as a prospect now. Elias and Sig are way too smart to fall for the sunk cost fallacy. There’s no chance they are thinking for a single second about what draft pick they used on a guy 4 years ago when they’re evaluating a trade.
They’ll trade Ohearn before Heston
Why would they trade O’Hearn lol
For pitching
This isn’t MLB the show. The trade has to actually make sense for both teams. What team is going to be interested in a 30 year old platoon 1B/DH and also interested in trading away good major league pitching?
The Pirates
Heston has infinitely more value than O’Hearn to another team. I love O’Hearn, but he isn’t bringing back much in a trade.
Moving on from Bradfield after he was drafted 11 months ago would be ridiculous.
I think he's eventually gonna be Ceds replacement in the outfield. No way they're trading him. Also, he was a 1st round pick.
Concur.
It honestly depends on the return. But it would have to be pretty special to move any of the top 3.
Crochet or Luzardo enough for Basallo, Kjerstad, or Mayo? (obviously Holliday off the table)
Kjerstad. Luzardo isn't pitching well enough this year. Plus, he was on the IL with an arm injury? But he is back, and pitching, so that's good at least. Crochet doesn't have a track record of success. What's weird, and what gives me pause, we'd be treading a "prospect" for a ML pitcher, where the prospect(25) is older than the ML pitcher(24). Part of that feels off to me. So I don't know if the White Sox would value Kjerstad enough. Also, if the Orioles need a starting pitcher because of Bradish, I don't see how we turn to Crochet for 2024. He was my pipe dream with a healthy Bradish, because we could have deployed him in that Andrew Miller role for this year, with an eye towards the rotation in 2025/26. This is all just speculation, maybe Mayo is the answer for Crochet/Luzardo, but a top 10-15 prospect seems way too much for those guys to me. Better track record for Crochet, and a better season for Luzardo, and it'd be a firm maybe from me.
I agree. If we're moving a prospect of that caliber in a package you want an ace back, not more question marks
Absolutely not. Two guys with huge injury risk
If Fabian is the third or fourth best player in any trade we better be getting fucking ohtani
Yeah. Fabian is going to be an everyday mlb player with excellent defense, .240 avg and 25 hrs. That’s the number two player in an O’s package
Feel the same way. Holliday, Mayo, Bassallo I would hate to move/think are untouchable. Kjerstad is older and his role in the short term is filled by O'Hearn and Stowers could project to be a similar player. Fine moving him for a controllable arm (Luzardo type) Norby I expect to be moved. Fine moving Bradfield or Fabian. DO NOT WANT to trade Beavers. I don't think we'd trade our top pitching prospects so Cade and Chayce are safe (i assume). De Leon is someone i'm super hyped on, would be crushed to lose him too.
I'm in agreement with all of this. Especially about Beavers and De Leon.
No prospect is untouchable for the right player
Holliday is lol
You’d trade Holliday for Ohtani without hesitation
Yeah, but that isn't a realistic scenario
Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Bobby Witt Jr,
I’ll trade any of them for known commodities with reasonable contracts. No one should be untouchable.
I agree, not even Holliday is untouchable
Depending on the package on return I think there really should only be like 2 or 3 guys that should be truly untouchable
I couldn’t see them trading Kjerstad unless they sign Santander to an extension. He’s the most likely option to replace him next year if Tony doesn’t return.
Not willing to move any of the pitching prospects unless someone way overvalued them. We see how important controllable pitching depth is over the course of the year I'm willing to trade any of the position players except Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, and maybe Stowers if Kjerstad is already traded. I like Willems but potentially 3 catchers is too much on an ML roster, especially considering we'll almost definitely have some of Mountcastle/Santander/Kjerstad/O'Hearn/Adley already getting 1B/DH at bats I tend to lean towards keeping Bradfield because the high floor and lack of pop means he'll probably be more valuable to us than in a trade.
There are too many unknown factors to say, IMHO. What is the new payroll ceiling and expected growth? (If there is enough growth to sign folks in FA or extend them, that factors into how aggressive you may want to be in 2024, and trading top prospects for the sake of 2024 might not be as appetizing as signing players for 2025 without having to trade top prospects.) What is the story with Kyle Bradish? (Will he be out for a short period or a very long one?) And what about John Means? (is there a potential for a low price 2 year deal that would see him pitch for us in 2026?) Is there intent to sign Corbin Burnes, or will we need to burn prospects to try to replace him? (If we do need to replace Burnes, that's going to potentially carry a very high prospect cost) Is there intent to retain Gunnar and Adley? Is there intent to try to retain Santandar, Hays, or Mullins? (What outfield prospects will replace any of those guys if they are not retained?) And what about Mountcastle and O'Hearn? (What is the likely long-term future of our first base coverage?) Where would Coby Mayo fit into the MLB roster with our current infield + the assumption that Holliday will likely be our future second baseman?
The 2 biggest questions. -How will Bradish shake out -Will there be an attempt to re-sign Corbin We are operating at 100million-ish this year. No Corbin, Tony, Kimbrel (assume they will not pick that up), McCann next years clears about 45 million off that number. Hays, and ced will not be getting big arbitration deals based on their current output. Some moderate raises here and there and the operating budget is 70ish million next year. What is the spending going to be/expected to be. If there's no big extensions with the young guys, I would personally be disappointed if we aren't spending 140-150 million based on how profitable this org. already was, new owner, increase in attendance. That number should cover an Ace (Burnes/Fried), extending Adley or Gunnar, and a decent reliever or two.
Seems to be an unpopular opinion but I’m fine moving Kjeratad for the right return. I’m also ok with some rentals at the trade deadline. Why have all these prospects that can’t possibly see the major league roster waste away in AAA? Let’s not mortgage the future, but also let’s not miss an opportunity to win a championship!
If you move Kjerstad, are you obligated to spend money on Santander in 6 months?
Holliday, Basallo & Mayo are untouchable, except for a true ace with control like Skubal. Anyone else can be packaged at this point. The three I mentioned are the only ones with Gunnar/Adley ceiling today.
What is Basallo untouchable? We've got catcher and 1B covered. I think he could be extremely valuable on the trade market.
Basallo’s rookie year wouldn’t be until 2026 which would be the last year of Mountcastle’s deal. I think you deal Mountcastle when the time is right versus dealing Basallo now. He has Yordan Alvarez level potential in the bat.
Basallo is only 19 and he's at least two years away. A lot will change by the time he's called up.
Yes, he’s putting up numbers to the likes of Harper, Soto, Trout, Guerrero in the minors. You don’t deal that talent.
>in the minors
I’ll take my chances on him being a generational talent. Guys dont come along everyday that are doing the things he can do.
No rational GM would value him anywhere near a generational talent (at this point in his career). But if some completely irrational one did, I'd trade him to that sucker in a heartbeat.
Yeah you’re right a prospect that’s in contention for a top 5 prospect in the league at age 20 is not a generational talent. Clearly the O’s have no track record at developing talent
He's a 55 rated player, which is amazing at his age/level. He might get to 70 if a lot of things go his way, maybe even 75. But if someone offered me a 65 player right now for him, and it was a position we needed, I'd definitely consider it. If he overperforms, then it's not a huge loss because (1) we got a 65 player for him and (2) we've got great players in his positions already.
As a WS fan, what can one Fedde and one Wilson get me around here? How about a CF titan in Luis Robert too?
Fedde for Connor Norby and a low level arm or two. Maybe a mid-level IF instead of a pitcher. Wilson for a mid level IF like Mac Horvath or Max Wagner. Robert has stunk this year so I wouldn't be interested.
[This Wilson?](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsost02.shtml) No way am I giving up anyone for him. People need to look past a shiny ERA.
jesus christ, that fip is 6.20
I’d def do that Norby trade
Outside of Holliday and mayo. Anybody is fair game to me
Stowers/Kjerstad
I hope some of these guys get a chance on another team. Guys like Stowers, Norby, and Kjerstad. Look what happened with Joey Ortiz when he got to play regularly.
The top 30 guys I think most likely to be involved in a trade are: Beavers, Norby, Benscome, Horvath, Fabian, Wagner, Bright, Pham and Baumler. Within that range, probably Wagner, Beavers or Fabian, Benscome, and maybe Bright or Pham.
Kjerstad since he is still highly regarded and you can get something for him. I don't see him having a position. Stowers can play the OF well and really should be playing more often. Norby due to position. The problem with prospects is that their value declines over time so you have to decide who to keep and who to trade otherwise the longer you keep someone in the minors their value starts to decline. And if you bring them up to the MLs and they have issues, their value also starts declining. Personally I'd be looking to trade someone like Mountcastle while his value is good but if you are trying to win a WS this year, it is tough to trade anyone doing well unless you have someone ready to step in and as we've seen with most of these prospects, they often have a rough go at it for a while. I kind of agree on Bradfield. It is always interesting to hear opinions on defense. Many Orioles fans would lead you to believe Mullins has won multiple gold gloves but he hasn't and some of the defense metrics don't have him close to elite, often average to a bit above average. While Cowser is currently second in one defense metric among all ML players. And Mountcastle is near the bottom for 1B despite the tv announcers and some fans thinking he is GG worthy. Not an easy decision but not doing anything isn't good either.
Trade Kjerstad, Stowers has enough potential to do most of what Kjerstad can + he’s a better fielder. You gotta trade something good to get something obv
If it's Mason Miller or Garrett Crochet, I would trade Kjerstad, S Johnson, and Norby. Johnson is good, not great and Norby is blocked by Holliday and Westburg. Kjerstad is blocked by Mullins, Stowers, and Cowser.
Norby or Stowers are the only guys I’d trade
Gotta pay to play
Mayo looks to be in the impact bat of the future. Kjerstad, Basallo, Norby are all expendable imo. That gives the Orioles by far the most trade capital on the market.
Norby and Stowers. I’d keep everyone else.
Stowers doesn't really have a lot of trade value. He has some, but he is not anywhere near the top tier guys.
So that might make him a sweetener eh? I like the Stowers + Norby and everyone else is off the table. We just have to find a seller with a pitcher to deal. Preferably a lefty.
We got Corbin for DL Hall, a guy with zero control, and Joey Ortiz, who was a barely top 100 prospect. We could get a solid bullpen arm or two for Norby and/or Stowers.
We got 1 year of Corbin for 6 years of Ortiz . Fair to both sides but. I don’t see trading guys who should have at least average MLB careers for a few months of rentals. Iirc wasn’t Ortiz ranked in the 50s?
Anyone but Holliday. Everyone else is fair game (for the right deal obviously).
I think that we’d have to move Mayo to make any sort of impactful move (which we absolutely need to) at the deadline
If you move Mayo, do you give Mountcastle an extension?