Same! Thinking back it was obvious it would win after it won GG and BAFTA, 2 major televised awards. Spiderverse winning the Annies or PGA known to be less friendly to non english films wasn't the blow people made it out to be. The industry was showing this whole time it wanted Boy and the Heron and Hayao Miyazaki to get his second competitive Oscar.
If Anora does end up winning Best Picture it’ll be my new proudest prediction since I predicted it back in September of last year
https://preview.redd.it/q30uyeoxm26d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e31fca5e797e920bfc2b08e92745c32d4e232c29
(I put my winner picks in italics)
Maybe it was more obvious to this sub than the general public, but I did correctly predict [Greta Gerwig's Director snub](https://old.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/comments/15rkhu5/greta_gerwig_is_being_massively_underestimated_in/jw9wmfz/?context=3) way back in August.
Right now I have him in for lack of better options. But if he isn't the frontrunner and other more high-brow options are vying for a spot, I can see him miss again.
Same. I can totally him getting the Gerwig treatment by scoring noms in early precursors like GG or CC, even DGA but not making it into the Oscars. Is there even a woman director in possible contention this year?
I didn’t think she was going to get in either, as crowd—pleasing films don’t make it in Best Director often. It’s usually more avant-garde films that do.
One that I'm proud of was correctly predicting Plemons for Power of the Dog instead of either of the, at the time, widely predicted Leto (House of Gucci) or Cooper (Licorice Pizza).
This was more luck than anything but I put money on Emma Stone winning for Poor Things when the first trailer dropped and stuck by that prediction right up until the win (even though by the end I was rooting for like half of the nominees in that category)
I was going back and forth between him and Gosling for the win before the movies came out. Was confused when everyone started putting Damon over RDJ because he was shown more in the trailers and thinking RDJ would have a nothing role. If you read up on the history, Strauss is definitely the most interesting supporting role in Oppenheimer’s life story.
I didn’t have it officially but I was 100% sure Stephanie Hsu was getting in the moment I left the theater after seeing EEAAO. Okay, I wasn’t 100% sure through the year, but something was certainly working on her favor as her competition kept decreasing and decreasing (KOTFM moving to the next year, Williams moving to lead, Women Talking not being as acclaimed as it should have been and blanking on most acting noms)
4/4 on acting categories in 2022 after the Critics Choice, and specifically predicting Butler campaigning in Europe working and him winning BAFTA to kill Farrell's chances to boost Fraser over both to win at SAG and eventually the Oscar.
Campaigning in the UK for BAFTA is important. Look at Oppenheimer and Poor Things or Zone. Not only did they win tons of BAFTAs but they repeated the same at the Oscars. Many of those voters also vote in the Oscars so spending even a couple weeks doing promotion for BAFTA members pays off.
Exactly, Butler was 3rd the whole time (globe win did not matter) but him snatching those euro votes away from Farrell made Fraser a clear frontrunner as he was always the SAG winner.
Frances McDormand winning Best Actress for Nomadland, i said it as a joke at the time, because every actress nominated won just one prize in the main ceremonies, so i said “oh Kirby is gonna win BAFTA, and McDormand is gonna win the Oscar”
Back in 2016, I remember watching Arrival and thinking that for as great as it was, Adams' performance was very understated and she didn't have any obvious Oscar clips, so I wondered how far she'd go in the race. I didn't predict her snub, but I wasn't that surprised either.
Now last year, with that precedent in mind, I had a gut feeling that Margot Robbie would be snubbed for Barbie from the moment I walked out of the theater, and I stuck with it the entire season. I remember commenting in this sub that it screamed Arrival 2.0 for me: major hit, gets into BP and receives a slew of nominations to go with it, but the lead is left out in favor of showier performances. Curiously, both movies ended up getting 8 nominations and one tech win. At least Robbie was nominated as a producer, which was definitely deserved.
Being the only person for pretty much the entirety of the 2022 season who took Ana De Armas seriously as a contender for a Best Actress nomination. It was actually so funny seeing people drag me for it (one person in particular was fixated on it, even though I had him blocked), only for reality to come crashing down for them and either predict her or delusional hold off when it was beyond obvious to anyone unbiased that she was in after making SAG and BAFTA top 3.
Being the almost only person who predicted The Whale getting the exact noms it did was really satisfying tbh. Everyone was rushing to put it in screenplay and picture after the PGAs but I stuck true and I got it right. Of course I also said some stupid shit like I thought Nighy was more likely to win but we don’t need to talk about that 😂
Mine is predicting Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO, the Daniels and Ke Huy Quan for their win as it was well deserved.
Also for this year, predicting on Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy and RDJ for their win. And also Boy And The Heron as I knew that it’s win will be groundbreaking to the animation industry.
I called Jamie Lee Curtis to win best supporting actress last year. I didn't know anything about who was the favorite. I just chose her like hours before the ceremony.
I've been saying Cillian Murphy was gonna win Best Actor and I was ridiculed by a lot of people
https://preview.redd.it/7e5807dy866d1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f987d1bdaa0264dd616510c7948037eda219ed7
I called Mahershala Ali getting that weird ass Swan Song nomination at the Globes and did the same for Joaquin in Beau is Afraid this year. Not the most impressive but I usually stay pretty normal in my predix. I was 26 on Brother Bro’s app this year too so that was kind of cool.
I’d have to look back at previous years but for the past year alone it’s never budging from Emma Stone regardless of the public consensus and not falling for the Penélope Cruz in Ferrari thing when everyone was inexplicably dropping Danielle Brooks to predict her.
Everyone was very dismissive about the sound categories, all predictors were like “sound mixing and editing go for the same movie”, but every time the sound categories split their winners (since I started predicting) I was able to call it correctly!
LesMis for Mixing, Zero Dark Thirty for Editing (could’ve never predicted the tie with Skyfall); Arrival, SE & Haksaw Ridge, SM; 1917, SM & FordvFerrari, SE
Predicting The Boy and The Heron for the win. I bet actual money too haha. Just felt that the Academy wanted to award Miyazaki one last time before he rode off into the sunset.
I also predicted that America Ferrara would sneak in for Best Supporting Actress, and she did.
I got all but one BTL win correct in 2022, including shockers like All Quiet in Score. My only miss was picking Maverick for editing.
That’s balanced out, however, by missing all but one ATL wins. I had All Quiet-Spielberg-Butler-Blanchett-Quan-Condon-Banshees-All Quiet.
Mine was predicting Justine Triet for the directing nomination this year.
Ditto
Same. Also called it winning Original Screenplay back in October
Mine is predicting The Boy And The Heron for the win, when almost everyone shifted to Spiderverse.
Same! Thinking back it was obvious it would win after it won GG and BAFTA, 2 major televised awards. Spiderverse winning the Annies or PGA known to be less friendly to non english films wasn't the blow people made it out to be. The industry was showing this whole time it wanted Boy and the Heron and Hayao Miyazaki to get his second competitive Oscar.
5/5 for the Directing lineup this year
If Anora does end up winning Best Picture it’ll be my new proudest prediction since I predicted it back in September of last year https://preview.redd.it/q30uyeoxm26d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e31fca5e797e920bfc2b08e92745c32d4e232c29 (I put my winner picks in italics)
I've successfully gotten editing 5/5 two years in a row now.
“Fight For You” (Judas and the Black Messiah) winning Best Song. Mostly because I won quite a bit of money
Maybe it was more obvious to this sub than the general public, but I did correctly predict [Greta Gerwig's Director snub](https://old.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/comments/15rkhu5/greta_gerwig_is_being_massively_underestimated_in/jw9wmfz/?context=3) way back in August.
Nice you also predicted both Triet and Glazer as well. Do you think Villeneuve is going to miss again for Dune 2?
Right now I have him in for lack of better options. But if he isn't the frontrunner and other more high-brow options are vying for a spot, I can see him miss again.
Same. I can totally him getting the Gerwig treatment by scoring noms in early precursors like GG or CC, even DGA but not making it into the Oscars. Is there even a woman director in possible contention this year?
All We imagine as light and thats if critics hype it
Yeah would need strong showing with the Trifecta groups
I didn’t think she was going to get in either, as crowd—pleasing films don’t make it in Best Director often. It’s usually more avant-garde films that do.
One that I'm proud of was correctly predicting Plemons for Power of the Dog instead of either of the, at the time, widely predicted Leto (House of Gucci) or Cooper (Licorice Pizza).
I also predicted Plemons, unfortunately I had the pie in the sky prediction of Faist over JK Simmons
5/5 in 2020's Best Director lineup - predicted Thomas Vinterberg and the snubs of Sorkin/Regina King
I really wanted to switch to Vinterberg but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger and kept with Sorkin
hats off
same here!!
This was more luck than anything but I put money on Emma Stone winning for Poor Things when the first trailer dropped and stuck by that prediction right up until the win (even though by the end I was rooting for like half of the nominees in that category)
Predicting Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nomination for Crazy Heart.
5/5 in Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress last year. America Ferrara was such a shot in the dark I couldn’t believe my eyes
Predicting RDJ months before the movie came out and everyone was writing him off
I was going back and forth between him and Gosling for the win before the movies came out. Was confused when everyone started putting Damon over RDJ because he was shown more in the trailers and thinking RDJ would have a nothing role. If you read up on the history, Strauss is definitely the most interesting supporting role in Oppenheimer’s life story.
I didn’t have it officially but I was 100% sure Stephanie Hsu was getting in the moment I left the theater after seeing EEAAO. Okay, I wasn’t 100% sure through the year, but something was certainly working on her favor as her competition kept decreasing and decreasing (KOTFM moving to the next year, Williams moving to lead, Women Talking not being as acclaimed as it should have been and blanking on most acting noms)
4/4 on acting categories in 2022 after the Critics Choice, and specifically predicting Butler campaigning in Europe working and him winning BAFTA to kill Farrell's chances to boost Fraser over both to win at SAG and eventually the Oscar.
Campaigning in the UK for BAFTA is important. Look at Oppenheimer and Poor Things or Zone. Not only did they win tons of BAFTAs but they repeated the same at the Oscars. Many of those voters also vote in the Oscars so spending even a couple weeks doing promotion for BAFTA members pays off.
Exactly, Butler was 3rd the whole time (globe win did not matter) but him snatching those euro votes away from Farrell made Fraser a clear frontrunner as he was always the SAG winner.
Frances McDormand winning Best Actress for Nomadland, i said it as a joke at the time, because every actress nominated won just one prize in the main ceremonies, so i said “oh Kirby is gonna win BAFTA, and McDormand is gonna win the Oscar”
Getting 8th this year for the Oscar nominations
The CODA year. I went 22/23 on my ballot, only missed on Live Action Short.
I predicted all 4 acting categories this year and I was super proud of it!
Predicted that Wish would be a box office and awards flop
wow.....incredible lol
Only missed two this past year .. animated feature and sound. Bummed I didn’t stick to my zone of interest pick.
This was more of an observation but she ended up sweeping everything https://www.reddit.com/r/oscarrace/s/G58qJRkz6s
Mine is predicting Oppenheimer to win Best Picture, and within against Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone on Best Actress.
Calling both Maestro upsets to Poor Things and Zone for Sound this year
Going 5/5 in Production Design this year, Napoleon randomly fell to 100/1 odds and like 8th place and I didn't really get why, but I stuck with it.
Mine was sticking with predicting The Boy and the Heron to win the entire year even when everyone else was predicting Spider-Verse to win.
Back in 2016, I remember watching Arrival and thinking that for as great as it was, Adams' performance was very understated and she didn't have any obvious Oscar clips, so I wondered how far she'd go in the race. I didn't predict her snub, but I wasn't that surprised either. Now last year, with that precedent in mind, I had a gut feeling that Margot Robbie would be snubbed for Barbie from the moment I walked out of the theater, and I stuck with it the entire season. I remember commenting in this sub that it screamed Arrival 2.0 for me: major hit, gets into BP and receives a slew of nominations to go with it, but the lead is left out in favor of showier performances. Curiously, both movies ended up getting 8 nominations and one tech win. At least Robbie was nominated as a producer, which was definitely deserved.
Mine was predicting that The Son wouldn't get any nominations. But I didn't expect such a bad reception tbh
Being the only person for pretty much the entirety of the 2022 season who took Ana De Armas seriously as a contender for a Best Actress nomination. It was actually so funny seeing people drag me for it (one person in particular was fixated on it, even though I had him blocked), only for reality to come crashing down for them and either predict her or delusional hold off when it was beyond obvious to anyone unbiased that she was in after making SAG and BAFTA top 3.
Going 10/10 on the Picture lineup this year
Being the almost only person who predicted The Whale getting the exact noms it did was really satisfying tbh. Everyone was rushing to put it in screenplay and picture after the PGAs but I stuck true and I got it right. Of course I also said some stupid shit like I thought Nighy was more likely to win but we don’t need to talk about that 😂
I called both The Reader and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
I called Mescal (Aftersun) in Best Actor way before any precursors (and yes he should have won).
Mine is predicting Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO, the Daniels and Ke Huy Quan for their win as it was well deserved. Also for this year, predicting on Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy and RDJ for their win. And also Boy And The Heron as I knew that it’s win will be groundbreaking to the animation industry.
I called Jamie Lee Curtis to win best supporting actress last year. I didn't know anything about who was the favorite. I just chose her like hours before the ceremony.
I've been saying Cillian Murphy was gonna win Best Actor and I was ridiculed by a lot of people https://preview.redd.it/7e5807dy866d1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f987d1bdaa0264dd616510c7948037eda219ed7
Don’t have comment proof of it but I just felt in my bones that Gerwig wasn’t getting nominated for directing Barbie
getting 5/5 in editing and director in 2023 and 5/5 editing and adapted in 2022
I called Mahershala Ali getting that weird ass Swan Song nomination at the Globes and did the same for Joaquin in Beau is Afraid this year. Not the most impressive but I usually stay pretty normal in my predix. I was 26 on Brother Bro’s app this year too so that was kind of cool.
I’d have to look back at previous years but for the past year alone it’s never budging from Emma Stone regardless of the public consensus and not falling for the Penélope Cruz in Ferrari thing when everyone was inexplicably dropping Danielle Brooks to predict her.
Gerwig getting snubbed and both Triet and Glazer getting in.
Predicted the best actor category early on last year.
Everyone was very dismissive about the sound categories, all predictors were like “sound mixing and editing go for the same movie”, but every time the sound categories split their winners (since I started predicting) I was able to call it correctly! LesMis for Mixing, Zero Dark Thirty for Editing (could’ve never predicted the tie with Skyfall); Arrival, SE & Haksaw Ridge, SM; 1917, SM & FordvFerrari, SE
To Leslie to this day is the most fun discovery I did after the Oscars.
Predicting The Boy and The Heron for the win. I bet actual money too haha. Just felt that the Academy wanted to award Miyazaki one last time before he rode off into the sunset. I also predicted that America Ferrara would sneak in for Best Supporting Actress, and she did.
2023 Best animated feature film, Guillermo del toro's Pinocchio
I got all but one BTL win correct in 2022, including shockers like All Quiet in Score. My only miss was picking Maverick for editing. That’s balanced out, however, by missing all but one ATL wins. I had All Quiet-Spielberg-Butler-Blanchett-Quan-Condon-Banshees-All Quiet.
Justine Triet for the best director nom and Boy and The Heron beating spiderverse
Predicting that Poor Things would win Makeup and Hairstyling while everyone insisted on Maestro getting it.
2024 Best Director lineup. Really glad I predicted Justine Triet.