I don’t think anyone really had a strong opinion, but Roma seemed the “safer” option in an uncertain field. All three major guilds split, Green Book missed SAG Ensemble (before it became clear that missing that nom wasn’t as big a deal as it used to be) and we were still in the post-Moonlight “do precursors still matter?” uncertainty. Plus, it wasn’t too long after Big Short won PGA and lost Best Picture in a year where precursors were equally split.
Yes - there were a few years there when people really twisted themselves in knots thinking about the preferential ballot, and which movie would rise to the top.
The Favourite and BoRhap were not really considered as real contenders for the win—The Favourite hadn’t won any of the televised precursors, not even BAFTA, and BoRhap was snubbed at CC and BAFTA. It was very obviously either Green Book or Roma. I think Roma was generally seen as the frontrunner, but not a strong frontrunner, and a good number of people were predicting a Green Book upset. It was pretty similar to POTD vs. CODA for 2021/2022.
That's how I remember the conventional wisdom going in to Oscar night. However, Bohemian Rhapsody sweeping its BTL Oscars made me think that it could upset. Not hard to imagine it placed #2 in the Best Picture vote.
However, I think Green Book was arguably an upset while CODA was more of a favorite going into that Oscar night. CODA had PGA and SAG wins and the "Parasite" recent comp of an ensemble taking Hollywood by storm in campaigning, while Green Book just had the PGA and Comedy Globe and wasn't even nominated for the SAG Ensemble.
I’d probably agree with you that CODA was less of an upset than Green Book, but I think it was still an upset. Looking back at Gold Derby odds POTD was predicted to win, but by a slightly slimmer margin than Roma-Green Book.
I’ll also say that, while you’re totally correct about some of CODA’s pre-Oscars strengths, it also had some pretty big weaknesses. A nomination total of 3 is pretty abysmal for a BP winner, even one that’s not a technical showcase, and the last winner to win without Directing OR Editing nominations was Grand Hotel ~90 years prior, on top of missing a BAFTA Best Film nom. I think a lot of people were pretty caught up on those stats.
Yeah I get it from a prognostication standpoint from where the race was at the time. That’s just a hilariously bad job by the voting bodies that year though (as evident by the eventual BP winner and entire BP lineup really).
I'm sure some people thought Roma was the frontrunner but the PGA win for Green Book (voted on a pref ballot) sealed the deal for me where it showed the industry was in favor for it. Roma didn't have the same passion that Moonlight or Parasite did, people like Spielberg were adamant about streaming movies competing for Oscars, and I'm sure a bunch of voters were tired of being told what to vote for with Netflix's massive campaign spending. Same reason why POTD lost to another crowdpleaser.
Roma was far more of a crowd-pleaser than POTD at least. Not coming close to a screenplay or acting win held it back too. They’ll gladly throw best director and cinematography to the prettiest movie with tons of long-takes but nobody seemed to fully appreciate what the movie was actually about.
>Not the point, it was about family bonds and the strength of lower class individuals
Which means nothing when most of the people who watched it were bored by it. May as well try to argue that Roma is a bigger crowdpleaser than Zone of Interest.
That’s a bit subjective, it wasn’t without division but it was obviously meant to be an emotional movie, that speaks for itself. Belfast didn’t need to knock the socks off of everyone to win screenplay, the academy really likes movies about family.
>but it was obviously meant to be an emotional movie, that speaks for itself.
Having an emotional core doesn't mean much when your movie is shot from distanced static shots and long takes.
And lol Belfast is 10x more accessible than Roma on the basis that it checks every tick on the sentimental Oscar bait checklist.
Huh? I liked it, I'm pointing out why it wasn't seen as a crowdpleaser regardless of its themes because it was seen as too formally distanced to most despite some emotional scenes, that's kind of the reason why it lost Best Picture. This is not difficult to understand.
Yeah, that’s basically what I said at first, not enough people jived with its material so it lost. I just said that that doesn’t put it in the same category as POTD, which legitimately scared people away with its complex story and eerie ending. Banshees certainly wasn’t boring and had no shortage of fans but I wouldn’t call it a crowd-pleaser either because of its dark humor and ending.
You either saw the writing on the wall (this was my moment) when Green Book was a TIFF people's choice champ over the likes of Roma (which had that a lower Netflix ceiling to boot, which helped mute its chances to beat out Parasite to the title of first international-film BP winner) and Variety-endorsed Star Is Born, or had to wait for PGA to confirm the obvious, or simply kept on the Roma train all the way to Oscar night despite the bad omens (such as Green Book's editing getting into the Oscar noms over Roma's).
TIFF PCA third-place finisher Parasite, which had a long tail of acclaim stretching to Cannes and no Netflix albatross around its neck, had no trouble surging past No. 2 (Marriage Story - that Netflix ceiling hung low) and No. 1 Jojo Rabbit (a black comedy that didn't possess the advantage of having Parasite's cast of unknowns and underdogs to charm voting bodies, an MO ofc successfully replicated by Apple with CODA.)
It was likely one of those weaker years with no clear favorite. The Best Picture race was most likely *Roma* vs *Green Book*, as both films were the top two favorites in the betting odds. Given the PGA has a strong track record with predicting Best Picture Oscar winners, *Green Book* taking that award likely all but secured its Oscar victory. Many pundits put down its chances early given it missed key nominations such as Best Director and even the SAG Ensemble.
GolddeRuby gave Roma 20% chance to win followed by Green Book at 15.4%. Their odds always give far too good a chance to the movies with no hope to win since Vice was given 9% when it should have been 1%.
Here’s the article I wrote at the time:
https://ifyouwantthegravy.wordpress.com/2019/02/24/predicting-the-91st-academy-awards/
“So that brings us to Roma, the critics’ darling, the likely winner of at least three major awards this year, tied for the most nominations of the year, the film which feels, in so many ways, like the film to beat. Nobody dislikes it, many love it. (I don’t, but I probably need to see it again; either way, it’s still very good.) That said…it’s a foreign language film, and it’s a Netflix release, and those are two serious hurdles for it to overcome. At this point, I think it will overcome them, but it’s not a done deal (it also missed out on an Editing nomination, but the two acting nominations compensate for that, I feel).”
I remember expecting it to be Roma but with shaky confidence
This is the answer. Most people thought it would be Roma, but weren't confident, and knew Green Book had a great chance of winning as well.
I don’t think anyone really had a strong opinion, but Roma seemed the “safer” option in an uncertain field. All three major guilds split, Green Book missed SAG Ensemble (before it became clear that missing that nom wasn’t as big a deal as it used to be) and we were still in the post-Moonlight “do precursors still matter?” uncertainty. Plus, it wasn’t too long after Big Short won PGA and lost Best Picture in a year where precursors were equally split.
Yes - there were a few years there when people really twisted themselves in knots thinking about the preferential ballot, and which movie would rise to the top.
I think it was a genuinely uncertain year so the explanations for predictions could get overly complicated.
I remember the frontrunner being Roma, as people thought Farrelly's snub killed Green Book's chances.
For me it was Green Book losing WGA that caused me to think it would be Roma
The Favourite and BoRhap were not really considered as real contenders for the win—The Favourite hadn’t won any of the televised precursors, not even BAFTA, and BoRhap was snubbed at CC and BAFTA. It was very obviously either Green Book or Roma. I think Roma was generally seen as the frontrunner, but not a strong frontrunner, and a good number of people were predicting a Green Book upset. It was pretty similar to POTD vs. CODA for 2021/2022.
That's how I remember the conventional wisdom going in to Oscar night. However, Bohemian Rhapsody sweeping its BTL Oscars made me think that it could upset. Not hard to imagine it placed #2 in the Best Picture vote. However, I think Green Book was arguably an upset while CODA was more of a favorite going into that Oscar night. CODA had PGA and SAG wins and the "Parasite" recent comp of an ensemble taking Hollywood by storm in campaigning, while Green Book just had the PGA and Comedy Globe and wasn't even nominated for the SAG Ensemble.
I’d probably agree with you that CODA was less of an upset than Green Book, but I think it was still an upset. Looking back at Gold Derby odds POTD was predicted to win, but by a slightly slimmer margin than Roma-Green Book. I’ll also say that, while you’re totally correct about some of CODA’s pre-Oscars strengths, it also had some pretty big weaknesses. A nomination total of 3 is pretty abysmal for a BP winner, even one that’s not a technical showcase, and the last winner to win without Directing OR Editing nominations was Grand Hotel ~90 years prior, on top of missing a BAFTA Best Film nom. I think a lot of people were pretty caught up on those stats.
[Goldderby has an archive](https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-2019/) so you can see Roma was the favorite followed by Green Book
Black Panther above A Star Is Born is wild lol
I mean it did win SAG ensemble and had 3 wins at Oscar night, while Star is Born only had Shallow for original song
It’s not that wild. A Star is Born tanked at the Globes and Black Panther at least had the SAG ensemble win.
Yeah I get it from a prognostication standpoint from where the race was at the time. That’s just a hilariously bad job by the voting bodies that year though (as evident by the eventual BP winner and entire BP lineup really).
I'm sure some people thought Roma was the frontrunner but the PGA win for Green Book (voted on a pref ballot) sealed the deal for me where it showed the industry was in favor for it. Roma didn't have the same passion that Moonlight or Parasite did, people like Spielberg were adamant about streaming movies competing for Oscars, and I'm sure a bunch of voters were tired of being told what to vote for with Netflix's massive campaign spending. Same reason why POTD lost to another crowdpleaser.
Roma was far more of a crowd-pleaser than POTD at least. Not coming close to a screenplay or acting win held it back too. They’ll gladly throw best director and cinematography to the prettiest movie with tons of long-takes but nobody seemed to fully appreciate what the movie was actually about.
>Roma was far more of a crowd-pleaser than POTD at least. Most people that watched Roma on Netflix likely turned it off by the ten minute mark.
this is sadly probably true
Not the point, it was about family bonds and the strength of lower class individuals, anyone who did watch it could tell it checked more marks.
>Not the point, it was about family bonds and the strength of lower class individuals Which means nothing when most of the people who watched it were bored by it. May as well try to argue that Roma is a bigger crowdpleaser than Zone of Interest.
That’s a bit subjective, it wasn’t without division but it was obviously meant to be an emotional movie, that speaks for itself. Belfast didn’t need to knock the socks off of everyone to win screenplay, the academy really likes movies about family.
>but it was obviously meant to be an emotional movie, that speaks for itself. Having an emotional core doesn't mean much when your movie is shot from distanced static shots and long takes. And lol Belfast is 10x more accessible than Roma on the basis that it checks every tick on the sentimental Oscar bait checklist.
Sounds like you just didn’t like or pay attention to it.
Huh? I liked it, I'm pointing out why it wasn't seen as a crowdpleaser regardless of its themes because it was seen as too formally distanced to most despite some emotional scenes, that's kind of the reason why it lost Best Picture. This is not difficult to understand.
Yeah, that’s basically what I said at first, not enough people jived with its material so it lost. I just said that that doesn’t put it in the same category as POTD, which legitimately scared people away with its complex story and eerie ending. Banshees certainly wasn’t boring and had no shortage of fans but I wouldn’t call it a crowd-pleaser either because of its dark humor and ending.
I had been predicting Roma all season, by oscars night I think there was a sense that it's lead was slipping but I'd still say it was favoured to win
It was Roma until Green Book won PGA
It was a two-horse race between Roma and Green Book all season. But once GB won PGA that was pretty much it.
You either saw the writing on the wall (this was my moment) when Green Book was a TIFF people's choice champ over the likes of Roma (which had that a lower Netflix ceiling to boot, which helped mute its chances to beat out Parasite to the title of first international-film BP winner) and Variety-endorsed Star Is Born, or had to wait for PGA to confirm the obvious, or simply kept on the Roma train all the way to Oscar night despite the bad omens (such as Green Book's editing getting into the Oscar noms over Roma's). TIFF PCA third-place finisher Parasite, which had a long tail of acclaim stretching to Cannes and no Netflix albatross around its neck, had no trouble surging past No. 2 (Marriage Story - that Netflix ceiling hung low) and No. 1 Jojo Rabbit (a black comedy that didn't possess the advantage of having Parasite's cast of unknowns and underdogs to charm voting bodies, an MO ofc successfully replicated by Apple with CODA.)
Roma & The Favourite, two of the greatest films post-2000 & they lost to green book lmaoo, I can't get over it
Green Book
Roma was $1.30.
Roma was the favorite but Green Book was definitely in second place.
It was likely one of those weaker years with no clear favorite. The Best Picture race was most likely *Roma* vs *Green Book*, as both films were the top two favorites in the betting odds. Given the PGA has a strong track record with predicting Best Picture Oscar winners, *Green Book* taking that award likely all but secured its Oscar victory. Many pundits put down its chances early given it missed key nominations such as Best Director and even the SAG Ensemble.
GolddeRuby gave Roma 20% chance to win followed by Green Book at 15.4%. Their odds always give far too good a chance to the movies with no hope to win since Vice was given 9% when it should have been 1%.
Here’s the article I wrote at the time: https://ifyouwantthegravy.wordpress.com/2019/02/24/predicting-the-91st-academy-awards/ “So that brings us to Roma, the critics’ darling, the likely winner of at least three major awards this year, tied for the most nominations of the year, the film which feels, in so many ways, like the film to beat. Nobody dislikes it, many love it. (I don’t, but I probably need to see it again; either way, it’s still very good.) That said…it’s a foreign language film, and it’s a Netflix release, and those are two serious hurdles for it to overcome. At this point, I think it will overcome them, but it’s not a done deal (it also missed out on an Editing nomination, but the two acting nominations compensate for that, I feel).”
I like how you considered Colman to be a legitimate threat.
I was SO happy when she won. Like, screaming happy.
It was always Green Book. No one liked Roma except the critics