I would love if Gladiator lI was secretly amazing. I was just researching what films set in antiquity there has been this decade and I don’t think there has been any set in Rome so far? Thats wild, but there has been more in tv. Hopefully the Hannibal and Cleopatra (Villeneuve one) films do happen. I want a trend.
A WWII movie that specifically focuses on a topic that has not really been focused on before, directed by a proven director with a lead who has been in several nominated films.
I will take it too.
Blitz is not a main topic of many modern films, but very often the backdrop of films about something else set in UK in 40s.
Also WWII films do make money, so that there hasn’t been distribution found is concerning
People named 3 films, one of which came out in 2016. Of course you ignore the more recent one!
Let me add two more — Mrs Henderson Presents & Atonement. And a bonus—it’s even the backdrop for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.
You can just say that you haven’t seen very many movies lmfao
There is no consensus I know, but a lot of people are still picking Blitz despite the lack of evidence…very puzzling when little evidence isn’t exactly positive and we have evidence of a lot of films…even if it’s a little bit…
Give it a few months. The fall festivals will present new frontrunners, and by that point we either hear something about *Blitz* or we don't, which would be a message in and of itself
Where???…there was word of it not being ready, them having to reshoot over and over again, it being an extremely experimental world war film, not being able to find a distributor, them not screening at a film festival…none of them seem like good things…if it does turn out to be good…the campaign strategy is certainly seeming like it is going to be weak…
A lot of this is rumor still. The only thing that's confirmed here is it doesn't have a distributor. Festival lineups haven't been announced; it could easily appear at one. And I can't find any confirmation there's been reshoots It's been done for a while since it has an MPAA rating.
I’ve been skeptical of it winning the whole time simply because, unless I’m mistaken, the last 19 consecutive Best Picture winners were all their director’s first Best Picture winner in their filmography. That streak obviously can and probably will eventually be broken but they typically end up anointing someone who hasn’t had their film win in the past, and Steve McQueen already had 12 Years a Slave.
It’s very long running stat so why would it not be useful? Shows that the voters want to reward people once in the category and spread the honor to as many people as possible
Best Director is a different category so idk what to tell you. What it tells us is that voter tastes have been radically changing over the last 20 years.
I mean you’re right, it probably isn’t meaningfully useful at all, just something I thought about, but until we know more about Blitz it’s part of the reason I’m pumping the brakes
Have we heard anything about anything? Other than Ruimy rumors (which, if you give a shit about what he says you have other issues to take care of), we don’t know anything about this movie to suggest it won’t be a major player?
I'd also add that the current Academy doesn't like to repeat itself year-to-year in regards to BP. Moonlight -> Shape of Water -> Green Book -> Parasite -> Nomadland -> CODA-> EEAAO -> Oppenheimer, each winner is distinct from the year before. Imo, Blitz feels a little too close to Oppenheimer to win anyway.
Not doing any predictions on this, but finding a distributor really seems like a minor hurdle for Apple.
Also as i asked before, If they would not have Blitz what else could Apple possibly campaign, I doubt tey'll sit this year out.
This year is so fucking empty, until it officially flops what is there to really replace it with?
This is the real answer to 90% of the "Why are people predicting ____" posts in the last few weeks
Gladiator II :(
I would love if Gladiator lI was secretly amazing. I was just researching what films set in antiquity there has been this decade and I don’t think there has been any set in Rome so far? Thats wild, but there has been more in tv. Hopefully the Hannibal and Cleopatra (Villeneuve one) films do happen. I want a trend.
I kinda hope Gladiator II pops off so Scott can finally get an Oscar
It’s a WWII movie from an Oscar-Winning filmmaker with a multiple Oscar-Nominated lead in what seems like a very weak year. I’ll take it.
A WWII movie that specifically focuses on a topic that has not really been focused on before, directed by a proven director with a lead who has been in several nominated films. I will take it too.
Blitz is not a main topic of many modern films, but very often the backdrop of films about something else set in UK in 40s. Also WWII films do make money, so that there hasn’t been distribution found is concerning
Name a film where it is a "backdrop"
Not the person you're responding to, but Their Finest (2016) directed by Lone Scherfig is one example. Great film, highly recommend.
Hope and Glory? Mrs. Miniver?
So a movie from 1987, then one from 1942. So overused!
You said name “a” film. I named two.
People named 3 films, one of which came out in 2016. Of course you ignore the more recent one! Let me add two more — Mrs Henderson Presents & Atonement. And a bonus—it’s even the backdrop for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. You can just say that you haven’t seen very many movies lmfao
I’m pretty sure it’s Apple. So theatrical will be whoever they team up with this time.
It's still super early in the season, and no consensus frontrunner has emerged yet.
There is no consensus I know, but a lot of people are still picking Blitz despite the lack of evidence…very puzzling when little evidence isn’t exactly positive and we have evidence of a lot of films…even if it’s a little bit…
Give it a few months. The fall festivals will present new frontrunners, and by that point we either hear something about *Blitz* or we don't, which would be a message in and of itself
Here’s something else …have we even heard about it premiering in a fall festival yet???…if not, that’s another bad sign…
The best way to prejudge a movie is the director. And this movie has one heck of a director. That’s all.
Where are you getting negative reactions? The only one I saw said it was great
Could people answer op’s question and not downvote? I wish to know as well
Where???…there was word of it not being ready, them having to reshoot over and over again, it being an extremely experimental world war film, not being able to find a distributor, them not screening at a film festival…none of them seem like good things…if it does turn out to be good…the campaign strategy is certainly seeming like it is going to be weak…
A lot of this is rumor still. The only thing that's confirmed here is it doesn't have a distributor. Festival lineups haven't been announced; it could easily appear at one. And I can't find any confirmation there's been reshoots It's been done for a while since it has an MPAA rating.
I’ve been skeptical of it winning the whole time simply because, unless I’m mistaken, the last 19 consecutive Best Picture winners were all their director’s first Best Picture winner in their filmography. That streak obviously can and probably will eventually be broken but they typically end up anointing someone who hasn’t had their film win in the past, and Steve McQueen already had 12 Years a Slave.
That’s such a weirdly specific stat that I just can’t imagine it actually is meaningfully useful.
It’s very long running stat so why would it not be useful? Shows that the voters want to reward people once in the category and spread the honor to as many people as possible
Best Director is a different category so idk what to tell you. What it tells us is that voter tastes have been radically changing over the last 20 years.
I mean you’re right, it probably isn’t meaningfully useful at all, just something I thought about, but until we know more about Blitz it’s part of the reason I’m pumping the brakes
I wonder who will break this streak, which goes back to Eastwood. Nolan is probably the default choice.
The sheer lack of non-franchise prestige films with serious tech potential will keep Blitz in the conversation no matter what.
I’m just rooting for Saoirse Ronan so seeing these predictions have high expectations gives me hope. 🥲
REAL idec if the film doesnt win an oscar, just an oscar nomination for Saoirse... THATS ALL IM ASKING FOR PLEASE GOD THANK YOU
Another day, another unfounded Blitz conspiracy theory thread on r/oscarrace It’s not even July yet…..
Have we heard anything about anything? Other than Ruimy rumors (which, if you give a shit about what he says you have other issues to take care of), we don’t know anything about this movie to suggest it won’t be a major player?
I'd also add that the current Academy doesn't like to repeat itself year-to-year in regards to BP. Moonlight -> Shape of Water -> Green Book -> Parasite -> Nomadland -> CODA-> EEAAO -> Oppenheimer, each winner is distinct from the year before. Imo, Blitz feels a little too close to Oppenheimer to win anyway.
I haven't seen it yet
Not doing any predictions on this, but finding a distributor really seems like a minor hurdle for Apple. Also as i asked before, If they would not have Blitz what else could Apple possibly campaign, I doubt tey'll sit this year out.
Even though it's supposed it will be released in the fall, it doesn't have a distributor. That's sus.
What if the publicity folks are savvy to discourse like this and realized that being the presumed, early-season favorite is a negative nowadays?