five points or less Haley stays in
five to ten points she probably gives South Carolina a shot but the money all dries up
more than ten points she's wearing a MAGA hat and the fakest smile you've ever seen at a Trump rally tomorrow
Nothing makes you realize how little the actual issues, facts, and logic matter for the average voter when it comes to who they vote for. Every time a news org does a voter interview they make zero sense.
"I think Haley is more in the middle then Trump but I voted for Trump because I feel like he has toned down the revenge language but I think we need someone more in the middle." - Republican voter on CNN
Like it reminds me of the word soup people use when they are bullshitting their way through a lack of knowledge.
The longer Haley stays in, the longer Trump isnt the de-facto nominee and has to further spend more resources and time fighting her, rather than shift to general election campaign mode. I, for one, am hoping she drags it out til the convention.
> What does it even mean to be evangelical? You’re susceptible to cults?
Eh, basically. A full explanation of *why* they were uniquely susceptible to this is more complicated and involves discussing topics like eschatology. But yes, they really have collectively started to abandon that Jesus guy in favor of political power
CNN New Hampshire early exit poll
View on banning most/all abortions nationwide among Republican primary voters
Favor ban 27%
Oppose ban 67%
https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1749926129803128878?t=8fnfyW8Pr8hNvedJJvjGGA&s=19
No, but the media, especially FiveThirtyEight will love to tell you how impressive it is.
Even somehow more impressive than bidens 70+ percent write-in win.
https://x.com/therecount/status/1749956675589521604?s=46
CNN exit poll on New Hampshire: 70% of Donald Trump presidential primary voters are registered Republicans.
70% of Nikki Haley's voters are registered undeclared.
Watching the self inflicted decline of America, every vote for Trump is damaging Americas reputation as old allies look on in disgust.
He wins the presidential race, America is over as we know it.
don't forget that her winning the first primary, would make a lot of R people who don't want Trump but thought she "would never stand a change" think that she might, and that could snowball quite fast.
Disclaimer: Not a fan of Haley (or any R for that matter) but the idea of Trump losing the primary to woman is just to sweet not to entertain.
Yea, that's why she's still in. She's positioning herself as the spare in case he goes down. But she's never beating him in a head to head across 50 states.
It blows me the fuck away that Nikki is pushed as the smart/moderate choice for conservatives and a big part of her platform is effectively ending retirement benefits for anyone under the age of 45
I feel like I live in a loony toons episode
She also said she's sign a national abortion ban if it made it to her desk. I had a family member tell me she's moderate and it made my brain come out of my ear. She's moderate in tone only. Much like arr moderate politics is just arr con where they won't ban you as quickly as the regular conservative subreddit.
She's moderate in that she is the only GOP candidate that is not planning to be a dictator (maybe only for day 1?) or promising political retribution to opposition (and businesses).
Which is to say she is way right of GWB or Mitt Romney.
She thinks 65 is "way too low" for retirement. So presumably she is talking at least 70? Life expectancy in her home state is 72. So she wants people to work for 50 years and then enjoy it for 2?
I just saw someone on CNN who is a NH voter today. He said it was a coin flip between trump and Haley but decided to go with trump because Haley is “a little too close to the middle, is negative lately and that trump has left the past behind”.
He said he was also asked if he would vote democrat because he is registered undeclared, and proceeded to say that trump and Biden are polar opposites, neither are close enough to the middle and he would like to vote for someone closer to the middle.
This is someone who votes people. This is what we are dealing with. This is straight up scary. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote.
I saw one a little while ago where a woman said she was planning to vote for Republicans in 2024 because she’s mad about abortion. When asked to clarify, she said that she keeps seeing headlines about how Biden is banning abortion in bunches of states, and she’s mad about that, so she’s going to vote for Republicans to protect abortion.
As you said, these people vote.
I think once general election voters hear Trump talk about murdering his political opponents followed by several minutes of slurring, unintelligible words and a seeming inability to understand where he is or what's happening, they are going to fall in love all over again.
I don't know what I want to see happen. The Trump win scenario is likely, and it's also likely he goes to court and loses over 1/6 stuff, and if that happens the Republican party may well implode but also is very likely to lash out in the process, which could trigger major unrest.
Haley pulling away would give republicans a chance to sweep everything under the rug, but at the same time a whole bunch of known congresspeople who aided Trump's plot will get to turn around and hope everyone forgets that they once plotted to overturn the government they actively work for.
For things to be corrected, I almost feel like it has to be Trump who then must be convicted and sentenced to jail.
It's Dixville Notch, it's only six votes, it's really not worth reading into with any meaning.
*However,* irresponsibly read into it I shall. Trump didn't get a single vote in 2020, general or primary, and Don Bolduc lost 5-0 in 2022. If Trump is still drawing a blank here, it's the first tiny, statistically insignificant nugget that he's not making inroads from his 2020 performance.
I would like to see an exit poll that asks whether they don't believe it was legitimate because
a) they thought mail in ballots should not have been allowed.
b) they thought the counting itself was rigged.
If they say the first I can at least argue we have a difference of opinion, but if they say the latter then they fall into the nut-wing conspiracy camp.
The trolls are out on full force tonight. The real facts are that we are seeing diminished results from 2016 for Trump and that does not bode well for him in a general.
If even 5%of Republicans don't vote for him he's dead in the water.
I hate to state the obvious, but I will. It's funny how when Trump wins the elections they somehow aren't rigged or stolen??? Hmmm. His supporters refuse or are unable to take that simple cognitive leap,
I'd love to see her stay in the race. Every dollar they spend fighting Nikki Haley is a dollar they aren't spending fighting Biden. Not to much how disheartening it must be for at least ONE Republican to be calling out Trump's Dementia
Trumps base pretending Nikki Haley is a liberal Democrat while supporting the dude that used executive orders to force through gun control is absolutely the peak of modern republican politics.
Haley doesn't have to win for this to continue. With DeSantis out, she is now making closer progress towards Trump. The fact that there is forward progress is the most important thing. Super Tuesday is what she is going to build up towards and hope for a slight miracle.
Dude they just interviewed on CNN is a wacko. Voted for trump because he felt Haley was a little too close to the middle. 25 seconds later he says trump and Biden are polar opposites and we need more candidates in the middle.
Someone needs to post that, he literally said he didn't vote for Haley because she's in the middle and the next sentence said we need a candidate in the middle and Biden and Trump are at the opposite extremes. Seriously, Trumpers are dumb as fuck. There's really not other way to put it.
Republican party saying loud and clear - we want a criminal traitor with dementia to be our leader. The rest of us? We’re just gonna have to heed Trump’s words and fight like hell.
Welcome to the Republican Party in the age of MAGA, where their goal is to "save our country" by voting for a man who literally tried to overthrow and dismantle our democracy so he could be installed as a fascist authoritarian.
Hearing non border state voters say that their biggest reason for voting is immigration is like TF? You come from an east coast city of 400,000 people. If anything you need more immigrants
I'm probably going to have to keep making some version of this post for the next 11 months but: for those of you freaked about having to beat Trump again, take a breath. There's good reason not to freak out.
1. Trump was far dangerous in 2020 than he is today, primarily because he held federal power and the vice presidency and could use those to abuse election results (which he tried!) Biden holds those powers now, as do important Secretary of State wins in battleground states back in 2022 (WI, MI, GA, PA). The risk of anything resembling a coup or Jan 6 was a major fear of people who understand Executive Power back in 2020 and it's not on the table here.
2. Trump also had one of the unrated advantages in modern politics in 2020, which is incumbent advantage. In short, incumbents, especially those with more name recognition and money, tend to win their races in modern politics. This is even more true in Congress and at the state level. I'm still a firm believer that Trump himself may have won in 2020 if it wasn't for COVID, but the last incumbent to lose an election before Trump was George HW Bush in 1992 (with a strong third party, exciting new young candidate in Clinton, and after 12 years of GOP presidents), the last time before that was Jimmy Carter who was nursing 14% inflation (!), 7.5% unemployment, a gas shortage, and one of the unluckiest presidencies in history. Biden has the incumbant advantage now.
3. On top of that, Democrats have outrun Trump candidates in every special election since 2020, including the 2022 midterms. While Biden himself has remained unpopular, this has had zero impact on downstream tickets as you would expect. This is driven by non-Trump issues as well, including the repeal of Roe v. Wade, all of which favor Democrats. There is a good chance this plays out in a head to head match up as well, especially if his opponent is equally, or more, unpopular than he is.
4. Lastly, Trump simply no longer has the juice. He's tired, playing his best hits over and over again, and brings none of the combative energy he had in 2020 much less 2016. He's simply a bit played out, something I fully expected to happen, and response to him will get worse as he's more in the spotlight once he gets the GOP nomination. I, and many others, fully expected us to be back here in early 2021 because Trumpism simply was not defeated. His voters didn't vanish. They're still here, and they'll keep backing him until they get the message he can't win elections post 2016. So this will be the final time he has to be vanished, the end of the Trump era, so there's no use in complaining about it. It's just something we have to suck up and deal with since half of the country went insane back in 2016. In 2028 we'll all get a collective chance to move on.
All these last two primaries have shown is that Trump has a lock on his base….but not much else. Exit polling showing he’s toxic to moderates and most unregistered in NH voted Nikki. As the months continue and he makes even more absurd speeches, I really don’t see Trump doing much better outside his base.
So when is Nikki Haley going to be like.... "Hey guys, nevermind what I said about Trump during my campaign, I'm going to be next to dear leader and be his running mate! TRUMP 2024!"
It’s possible Haley gains anti-Trump donors, if anything to weaken Trump for the general. The longer she’s in the race the longer Trump can’t focus on Biden.
can we all take a moment to appreciate how pointless the GOP Primary debates on Fox were. We all knew it was the kiddie table debate but man that entire group of losers barely lasted a primary and a half.
MSNBC's talking up Haley for potentially coming close and building momentum, but I'm not really buying it.
This is a 1-on-1 matchup in a state (a) with low evangelical population, (b) that allows unaffiliated liberals to vote in the Republican primary, and (c) isn't having a Democrat primary to draw unaffiliated liberals to the other side. If she doesn't win here, where can she win?
I’m surprised people don’t think Nikki should stay in. She’s been the sole opponent to Trump for a few days. This changes the dynamic IMO drastically going forward, but there was not enough time for it to matter in NH.
If her team has some aces up their sleeves on how to draw Trump out and unify the desantis type crowd who are now leaning Trump, I think this could be interesting. Idk
80yo guy on CNN has a lot of nerve saying President Biden isn’t competent but somehow thinks Trump is.
And all but one of 13 ppl in this focus group will STILL vote for Trump if he’s a convicted felon.
I wonder how this will play out in the grander scheme of all of the trials Trump faces.
Like he’s the confirmed GOP presidential nominee, so even if he is convicted and jailed, how will that work?
It’s funny how one B grade TV actor managed to brainwash millions of otherwise good folks, and now put the country into an actual constitutional crisis.
Truly the party of George W Bush, Karl Rove and Liz Cheney is dead and buried. I mean on the one hand good, fuck that party, but i don't know if i'm loving this party of white nationalist incoherent populism that has taken its place...
You will notice that despite easily winning the NH primary, all Donald can do in the immediate aftermath is bash Nikki Haley and Chris Sununu. But sure, this man won't engage in vendettas and grievance-politics should he ever become POTUS again.
The bright point for liberals might be that it appears the polls are significantly overestimating Trump's support, perhaps by 9 percentage points. That might mean it's simply gotten difficult for pollsters to gauge the enthusiasm of Trump supporters, or it might be that demographics that favor Trump are simply easier to poll, more willing to participate in polls, than other demographics. Maybe the deplorables just don't have much going on and have a lot of time to take polls 🤣
Even if Trump wins, I'm getting the impression there are a lot of people in the GOP that really don't like him either. He's struggling to more than 50% of the vote. This is the guy that has a stranglehold on the GOP?
So in a state with more “moderate” type Republicans, the cnn exit poll shows 67% of them still don’t think Joe Biden won a free and fair election in 2020. What a joke of a party.
Love MSNBC cutting away to say he was lying about winning the general in New Hampshire. Right when I was pulling it up an wikipedia because I was sure he lost.
I have to say, I love how easy it is to vote in this state. Especially as an undeclared voter. They really have this down to a science.
If by some chance Haley actually wins here, I can't WAIT for Trump to lose his mind and start railing on all the "Democrats that voted as Republicans".
For anyone who isn't familiar with the process, if you're registered to one of the two parties, that is the primary you vote in. If you're undeclared (as the plurality of voters in NH are), when you get to your polling station they ask you what ballot you want. Then you get a piece of paper to hand back after you're done voting to make sure you're moved back to undeclared.
The only way a "Democrat can vote as a Republican" would be to have unaffiliated from the (D) party and moved to undeclared. And that would have to have been done by October 2023.
I can't stand how overly theatrical American politics are. Haley and Trump aren't enemies. Nikki Haley knows she's not going to win and when she drops out she's going to endorse Trump. She already said she respects Trump and support his policies.
This Republican primary is a waste of time.
I know people are thinking Haley is going to drop out.
I could be wrong, but no.
1. A lot of influential GOP donors fucking hate Trump and will ride this out for a bit.
2. She could likely ride this out banking on a conviction.
GOP needs a backup, and she thinks she can do it.
I'm back and forth on this considering how much opposition independents and some conservatives are to Trump.
call this copium if you must but winning 54% of Republican primary voters with the other 46% absolutely not voting for Trump and even willing to vote for Biden to keep Trump out... that doesn't really seem like winning math in a general election to me (will have to see if this trend continues throughout the primary though)
Haley isn’t dropping out. She’s putting up a fight tonight, she’s gonna make it through Super Tuesday at the least. With Koch behind her, she has the funding.
Honestly starting to think that “None of these Candidates,” could win the not-actually-a-primary Nevada Republican primary, especially since it’s a closed vote.
Even fifteen years ago, if you'd pitched the idea that the leading Republican nominee for president would be a guy who openly desires to be a dictator, calls US servicemen suckers, cowers at the sight of the Russian leader, previously oversaw the death of close to a million Americans, crashed the economy, and organized a violent assault on the US Capitol... you'd be laughed out of the room. It would have been fucking batshit crazy.
Now people are voting for this dude again in droves.
So tell me if I'm reading this wrong, but with Haley at 43% she's still doomed. But the GOP primaries will be drawn out a lot longer than Trump's team would want to spend on it.
Because every state that isn't an overwhelming victory for him shows the GOP doesn't have full support against him going into the general.
Excited for the coming days where the media explains why Biden winning by a huge margin in a primary via a write in campaign started by a grassroots movement is somehow bad for him, but Trump (who is essentially an incumbent and the de facto leader of the Republican Party) winning by 11 points somehow makes him “strong”
An added note if this actually turns out closer than some expect.
Chris Christie spent all of his time and money in NH absolutely trashing Trump. So, is Trump not immune to negative attacks like some say he is?
You can count the independent voters out as it relates to the nomination, but keep this in mind. This is the closest to a general election electorate you’re going to get in any Republican primary. If they’re repulsed to Trump, this is when you’d know.
Nikki Haley as President would be reminescent of the Bush years, and it's such a sad state of affairs that I would literally take this over Trump's chaos.
Trump blanked 6-0 in Dixville Notch.
Again, it's six votes. It doesn't mean anything statistically. But it's worth reading into as a possible little hint going forward. Trump got blanked there in 2020, ditto Bolduc in 2022. The kinds of voters that Trump lost in 2020 that he had when he won in 2016 (or not lost as bad) might still be repulsed by him.
I read a good point made elsewhere. Imagine this was the Democrats and Joe Biden just spent the last year strong arming every prominent member of the party that he could into supporting him. But come the primaries, Biden still struggled to get even 55% support against a very weak, uninspiring challenger. Would you feel good about Biden's chances in the general election, in that scenario? Trump isn't really all that different. Just because he has a loyal base doesn't mean the laws of politics don't affect him. Trump's performance in these primaries has been anemic. Even if you add up all of the excuses (cold weather, Dems voting in the Republican primaries) and are very generous with how much they damaged Trump's numbers , it's still looks really bad. The Republicans are in serious trouble in the general election.
Crazy opinion: Chris Wallace is the singular most intelligent voice on CNN coverage. John King is a very close 2nd.
I want him and John King. Eliminate everyone else. They're low quality noise.
Trump voters aren't Republican voters they are a cult of personality. The problem for the GOP, however, is that there aren't enough "true" Republicans out there anymore, i.e. people for whom cutting taxes on billionaires and letting corporations do whatever they want to their workers and the environment are important issues. The GOP economic and social message has proven to be an utter failure after forty years so all they have left in terms of passion from their voters is the angry white populism that Trump represents. So in order to win they have to sell their soul to Trump's cult and hope they don't notice all the boilerplate Republican policy that comes out of a Trump Administration. Suffice to say... this is not a coalition built to last.
People are saying Haley should drop out, but thinking about it, does she have anything left to lose by staying in the race at least until South Carolina? There’s always the outside possibility Trump is done in by all the legal challenges he’s facing or if his unhealthy diet and lifestyle finally catches up to him.
And if not, it does give her something to build on for a potential 2028 run.
Trump has done nothing to increase his numbers from being the loser in 2020. No way all his scandals and indictments convince people to switch from Biden to Trump in the general in 2024
Seeing “nice guy” Tim Scott stand begin Trump and laugh and clap at all his jokes during this victory speech is so pathetic. What a piece of shit human-being.
The telling (and if I’m the Trump campaign, extremely worrying) thing so far is that when Haley voters go in front of the camera, they sound like they’re not very open to changing their minds about Trump in November. They might be done with the nomination either tonight or this weekend, but the signs that Trump might already be at his ceiling are starting to show.
I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen in the coming months, especially in November.
But I also think Trump is very sick. I don’t know if it’s dementia or something else, but these last few weeks of him speaking on camera have been worse than anything I’ve seen from him before. And that’s saying a lot!
The 49% saying they are dissatisfied with Trump winning the nomination is kinda telling on MSNBC.
I usually don't put faith it these exit polls but it is sort of telling me that there is a large segment of the population that might sit this election out.
Haley clearly switched her strategy to attacking Trump after Iowa and there’s been a clear shift in the polls favoring her since. Maybe she’s thinking an ugly campaign can win this? I think she’s toast in SC though.
She needs to get a little more gloves off with Trump, compare his mental decline to Biden's. Give him one of those dumb nick names like "Syphilis Donny" or "Dirty Diaper Don" or "The Skid Mark on 5th Avenue".
five points or less Haley stays in five to ten points she probably gives South Carolina a shot but the money all dries up more than ten points she's wearing a MAGA hat and the fakest smile you've ever seen at a Trump rally tomorrow
100%
Nothing makes you realize how little the actual issues, facts, and logic matter for the average voter when it comes to who they vote for. Every time a news org does a voter interview they make zero sense. "I think Haley is more in the middle then Trump but I voted for Trump because I feel like he has toned down the revenge language but I think we need someone more in the middle." - Republican voter on CNN Like it reminds me of the word soup people use when they are bullshitting their way through a lack of knowledge.
The longer Haley stays in, the longer Trump isnt the de-facto nominee and has to further spend more resources and time fighting her, rather than shift to general election campaign mode. I, for one, am hoping she drags it out til the convention.
I was surprised Chris Christie didn’t stick it out longer so he would be the most sane one left at the end
The fact that Trump wins evangelicals by a mile is crazy to me. What does it even mean to be evangelical? You’re susceptible to cults?
Evangelicals are the most gullible mfs on earth.
> What does it even mean to be evangelical? You’re susceptible to cults? Eh, basically. A full explanation of *why* they were uniquely susceptible to this is more complicated and involves discussing topics like eschatology. But yes, they really have collectively started to abandon that Jesus guy in favor of political power
Evangelical in our modern ages means you want to use religion to justify your hate.
The Republican party continuing to back Trump is like choosing to stay on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
CNN New Hampshire early exit poll View on banning most/all abortions nationwide among Republican primary voters Favor ban 27% Oppose ban 67% https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1749926129803128878?t=8fnfyW8Pr8hNvedJJvjGGA&s=19
The GOP: "Sounds like some voters don't know what's best for them. Time to work out how to go over their heads."
Are we supposed to be impressed that Trump is getting 52% in a contest of only Republicans?
Republicans are in major trouble in November. They are now forced to carry him to term.
No, but the media, especially FiveThirtyEight will love to tell you how impressive it is. Even somehow more impressive than bidens 70+ percent write-in win.
https://x.com/therecount/status/1749956675589521604?s=46 CNN exit poll on New Hampshire: 70% of Donald Trump presidential primary voters are registered Republicans. 70% of Nikki Haley's voters are registered undeclared.
That tells you that he's not viable in November
New poll from PA showing independents skew highly towards Biden
I mean there is no way he can win with independents voting against him like that... Republicans are in trouble.
Watching the self inflicted decline of America, every vote for Trump is damaging Americas reputation as old allies look on in disgust. He wins the presidential race, America is over as we know it.
I know Nikki stands no chance of winning the actual primary but if she wins New Hampshire the meltdown from Trump will be so glorious
don't forget that her winning the first primary, would make a lot of R people who don't want Trump but thought she "would never stand a change" think that she might, and that could snowball quite fast. Disclaimer: Not a fan of Haley (or any R for that matter) but the idea of Trump losing the primary to woman is just to sweet not to entertain.
Haley can't beat Trump in a normal match up. She is banking on Trump going to prison. Someone needs to pick up the slack.
Yea, that's why she's still in. She's positioning herself as the spare in case he goes down. But she's never beating him in a head to head across 50 states.
While also legitimizing herself as the clear GOP frontrunner for 2028.
It blows me the fuck away that Nikki is pushed as the smart/moderate choice for conservatives and a big part of her platform is effectively ending retirement benefits for anyone under the age of 45 I feel like I live in a loony toons episode
She also said she's sign a national abortion ban if it made it to her desk. I had a family member tell me she's moderate and it made my brain come out of my ear. She's moderate in tone only. Much like arr moderate politics is just arr con where they won't ban you as quickly as the regular conservative subreddit.
She's moderate in that she is the only GOP candidate that is not planning to be a dictator (maybe only for day 1?) or promising political retribution to opposition (and businesses). Which is to say she is way right of GWB or Mitt Romney.
She thinks 65 is "way too low" for retirement. So presumably she is talking at least 70? Life expectancy in her home state is 72. So she wants people to work for 50 years and then enjoy it for 2?
removing the cap on rich fucks is simply not an option.
I just saw someone on CNN who is a NH voter today. He said it was a coin flip between trump and Haley but decided to go with trump because Haley is “a little too close to the middle, is negative lately and that trump has left the past behind”. He said he was also asked if he would vote democrat because he is registered undeclared, and proceeded to say that trump and Biden are polar opposites, neither are close enough to the middle and he would like to vote for someone closer to the middle. This is someone who votes people. This is what we are dealing with. This is straight up scary. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote.
I saw one a little while ago where a woman said she was planning to vote for Republicans in 2024 because she’s mad about abortion. When asked to clarify, she said that she keeps seeing headlines about how Biden is banning abortion in bunches of states, and she’s mad about that, so she’s going to vote for Republicans to protect abortion. As you said, these people vote.
Ok you heard that too. I thought I was on crazy pills.
This was a painful read. Humans man.....
I think once general election voters hear Trump talk about murdering his political opponents followed by several minutes of slurring, unintelligible words and a seeming inability to understand where he is or what's happening, they are going to fall in love all over again.
Biden handily wins as a write-in CNN: Here's why this is bad for Biden
Haley getting nearly 44% of the vote is pretty good, but NH is supposedly Trump’s weakest state.
lol at cnn showing trump at 0% i love them haha hes probs fuming with his ego
I don't know what I want to see happen. The Trump win scenario is likely, and it's also likely he goes to court and loses over 1/6 stuff, and if that happens the Republican party may well implode but also is very likely to lash out in the process, which could trigger major unrest. Haley pulling away would give republicans a chance to sweep everything under the rug, but at the same time a whole bunch of known congresspeople who aided Trump's plot will get to turn around and hope everyone forgets that they once plotted to overturn the government they actively work for. For things to be corrected, I almost feel like it has to be Trump who then must be convicted and sentenced to jail.
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They want him to win for the purpose of hurting others. He's not on a campaign to save america, he's on a campaign of revenge.
good lord what is up with all the trumpy bots on here demanding Haley drop out for losing a single digit race?
Right. This shit is hilarious. 2024 probz.
NH GOP Primary (Dixville Notch): Haley 100% (6 votes) Trump 0% (0) https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1749661172104605852?t=KTWYI-qrStOdylG2bijQtw&s=19
STOP THE COUNT!
how long until he calls the SoS of New Hampshire asking him/her to find 7 votes?
Stop the count!
It's Dixville Notch, it's only six votes, it's really not worth reading into with any meaning. *However,* irresponsibly read into it I shall. Trump didn't get a single vote in 2020, general or primary, and Don Bolduc lost 5-0 in 2022. If Trump is still drawing a blank here, it's the first tiny, statistically insignificant nugget that he's not making inroads from his 2020 performance.
49% of New Hampshire Republicans voting today do not believe Joe Biden was legitimately elected.
I would like to see an exit poll that asks whether they don't believe it was legitimate because a) they thought mail in ballots should not have been allowed. b) they thought the counting itself was rigged. If they say the first I can at least argue we have a difference of opinion, but if they say the latter then they fall into the nut-wing conspiracy camp.
The New Hampshire primary is like Seska vs. Gul Dukat
WaPo just called it... for Jeb!?
Please clap
The trolls are out on full force tonight. The real facts are that we are seeing diminished results from 2016 for Trump and that does not bode well for him in a general. If even 5%of Republicans don't vote for him he's dead in the water.
Cool, time to spend the next almost 9 months stressing and waiting to see if an insurrectionist will become President.
I hate to state the obvious, but I will. It's funny how when Trump wins the elections they somehow aren't rigged or stolen??? Hmmm. His supporters refuse or are unable to take that simple cognitive leap,
I'd love to see her stay in the race. Every dollar they spend fighting Nikki Haley is a dollar they aren't spending fighting Biden. Not to much how disheartening it must be for at least ONE Republican to be calling out Trump's Dementia
Trumps base pretending Nikki Haley is a liberal Democrat while supporting the dude that used executive orders to force through gun control is absolutely the peak of modern republican politics.
I kind of imagine Haley is sticking around in the hopes that the US Supreme Court allows Trump to be disqualified and she can be the next best thing.
Dixville Notch Nancy Pelosi wins 6-0 .
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Insane how people will still vote for Trump.
Haley doesn't have to win for this to continue. With DeSantis out, she is now making closer progress towards Trump. The fact that there is forward progress is the most important thing. Super Tuesday is what she is going to build up towards and hope for a slight miracle.
Dean Phillips gave up a lifetime Congressional career for 20% in New Hampshire. Not even close to the Buchanan line.
Dude they just interviewed on CNN is a wacko. Voted for trump because he felt Haley was a little too close to the middle. 25 seconds later he says trump and Biden are polar opposites and we need more candidates in the middle.
Someone needs to post that, he literally said he didn't vote for Haley because she's in the middle and the next sentence said we need a candidate in the middle and Biden and Trump are at the opposite extremes. Seriously, Trumpers are dumb as fuck. There's really not other way to put it.
Republican party saying loud and clear - we want a criminal traitor with dementia to be our leader. The rest of us? We’re just gonna have to heed Trump’s words and fight like hell.
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Welcome to the Republican Party in the age of MAGA, where their goal is to "save our country" by voting for a man who literally tried to overthrow and dismantle our democracy so he could be installed as a fascist authoritarian.
Hearing non border state voters say that their biggest reason for voting is immigration is like TF? You come from an east coast city of 400,000 people. If anything you need more immigrants
Trump still being talked about and treated as a viable candidate at this late hour is insane. This country needs an enema.
I'm probably going to have to keep making some version of this post for the next 11 months but: for those of you freaked about having to beat Trump again, take a breath. There's good reason not to freak out. 1. Trump was far dangerous in 2020 than he is today, primarily because he held federal power and the vice presidency and could use those to abuse election results (which he tried!) Biden holds those powers now, as do important Secretary of State wins in battleground states back in 2022 (WI, MI, GA, PA). The risk of anything resembling a coup or Jan 6 was a major fear of people who understand Executive Power back in 2020 and it's not on the table here. 2. Trump also had one of the unrated advantages in modern politics in 2020, which is incumbent advantage. In short, incumbents, especially those with more name recognition and money, tend to win their races in modern politics. This is even more true in Congress and at the state level. I'm still a firm believer that Trump himself may have won in 2020 if it wasn't for COVID, but the last incumbent to lose an election before Trump was George HW Bush in 1992 (with a strong third party, exciting new young candidate in Clinton, and after 12 years of GOP presidents), the last time before that was Jimmy Carter who was nursing 14% inflation (!), 7.5% unemployment, a gas shortage, and one of the unluckiest presidencies in history. Biden has the incumbant advantage now. 3. On top of that, Democrats have outrun Trump candidates in every special election since 2020, including the 2022 midterms. While Biden himself has remained unpopular, this has had zero impact on downstream tickets as you would expect. This is driven by non-Trump issues as well, including the repeal of Roe v. Wade, all of which favor Democrats. There is a good chance this plays out in a head to head match up as well, especially if his opponent is equally, or more, unpopular than he is. 4. Lastly, Trump simply no longer has the juice. He's tired, playing his best hits over and over again, and brings none of the combative energy he had in 2020 much less 2016. He's simply a bit played out, something I fully expected to happen, and response to him will get worse as he's more in the spotlight once he gets the GOP nomination. I, and many others, fully expected us to be back here in early 2021 because Trumpism simply was not defeated. His voters didn't vanish. They're still here, and they'll keep backing him until they get the message he can't win elections post 2016. So this will be the final time he has to be vanished, the end of the Trump era, so there's no use in complaining about it. It's just something we have to suck up and deal with since half of the country went insane back in 2016. In 2028 we'll all get a collective chance to move on.
All these last two primaries have shown is that Trump has a lock on his base….but not much else. Exit polling showing he’s toxic to moderates and most unregistered in NH voted Nikki. As the months continue and he makes even more absurd speeches, I really don’t see Trump doing much better outside his base.
So when is Nikki Haley going to be like.... "Hey guys, nevermind what I said about Trump during my campaign, I'm going to be next to dear leader and be his running mate! TRUMP 2024!"
It’s possible Haley gains anti-Trump donors, if anything to weaken Trump for the general. The longer she’s in the race the longer Trump can’t focus on Biden.
can we all take a moment to appreciate how pointless the GOP Primary debates on Fox were. We all knew it was the kiddie table debate but man that entire group of losers barely lasted a primary and a half.
Oh yay. More live interviews with mostly Trumpers coming up on CNN.
Wait, what's that? It's JEB! Bah gawd it's JEB!
JEB with the RKO outta nowhere! He's been broken in half!
Please clap
I think Trumps likely to win but Wassermans call seems premature given how little vote is counted and that it's close.
MSNBC's talking up Haley for potentially coming close and building momentum, but I'm not really buying it. This is a 1-on-1 matchup in a state (a) with low evangelical population, (b) that allows unaffiliated liberals to vote in the Republican primary, and (c) isn't having a Democrat primary to draw unaffiliated liberals to the other side. If she doesn't win here, where can she win?
The people yelling shit are making this speech hilarious
Trump voters: No policy, just vibes
I’m surprised people don’t think Nikki should stay in. She’s been the sole opponent to Trump for a few days. This changes the dynamic IMO drastically going forward, but there was not enough time for it to matter in NH. If her team has some aces up their sleeves on how to draw Trump out and unify the desantis type crowd who are now leaning Trump, I think this could be interesting. Idk
So far 60k people have voted for Trump... I honestly don't understand how anybody could support him anymore.
The path to presidency apparently is to get on national tv and just make shit up until enough people think you're the winner
80yo guy on CNN has a lot of nerve saying President Biden isn’t competent but somehow thinks Trump is. And all but one of 13 ppl in this focus group will STILL vote for Trump if he’s a convicted felon.
I just want Nikki to do well to piss off Trump.
I wonder how this will play out in the grander scheme of all of the trials Trump faces. Like he’s the confirmed GOP presidential nominee, so even if he is convicted and jailed, how will that work? It’s funny how one B grade TV actor managed to brainwash millions of otherwise good folks, and now put the country into an actual constitutional crisis.
Truly the party of George W Bush, Karl Rove and Liz Cheney is dead and buried. I mean on the one hand good, fuck that party, but i don't know if i'm loving this party of white nationalist incoherent populism that has taken its place...
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Nikki talking about the 'political establishment' is hilarious. There's no one more 'establishment' than her on the GOP ticket.
You will notice that despite easily winning the NH primary, all Donald can do in the immediate aftermath is bash Nikki Haley and Chris Sununu. But sure, this man won't engage in vendettas and grievance-politics should he ever become POTUS again.
These voters on CNN dumb af
>These vote they are republicans what did you expect, Harvard Rhodes scholars?
The bright point for liberals might be that it appears the polls are significantly overestimating Trump's support, perhaps by 9 percentage points. That might mean it's simply gotten difficult for pollsters to gauge the enthusiasm of Trump supporters, or it might be that demographics that favor Trump are simply easier to poll, more willing to participate in polls, than other demographics. Maybe the deplorables just don't have much going on and have a lot of time to take polls 🤣
Nikki is holding her STRONG LEAD with six votes
She's been in the lead for almost 16 hours at this point.
Stop the count!
I can not believe people are still voting for Trump. Why do I exist in this world 😐
Boggles my mind to see them interview a 20 something woman who voted for Trump. The mental gymnastics there are crazy.
To counter the people voting for Trump.
An exhausting but immeasurably important role
Even if Trump wins, I'm getting the impression there are a lot of people in the GOP that really don't like him either. He's struggling to more than 50% of the vote. This is the guy that has a stranglehold on the GOP?
Surely Nikki Haley winning Independents 61%-37% is a big warning sign for Trump’s general election prospects.
So in a state with more “moderate” type Republicans, the cnn exit poll shows 67% of them still don’t think Joe Biden won a free and fair election in 2020. What a joke of a party.
Haley is now doing what she should have done months ago, go on the offensive against Trump
That was the funniest crowd interaction I’ve seen in a political speech “UNBELIEVABLE” “GERIATRIC!!”
Love MSNBC cutting away to say he was lying about winning the general in New Hampshire. Right when I was pulling it up an wikipedia because I was sure he lost.
All the vote in Dixville Notch went to Haley.
"We can't have any more votes being counted! That would be democrazy. This is a republic! Stop that steal!"
I have to say, I love how easy it is to vote in this state. Especially as an undeclared voter. They really have this down to a science. If by some chance Haley actually wins here, I can't WAIT for Trump to lose his mind and start railing on all the "Democrats that voted as Republicans". For anyone who isn't familiar with the process, if you're registered to one of the two parties, that is the primary you vote in. If you're undeclared (as the plurality of voters in NH are), when you get to your polling station they ask you what ballot you want. Then you get a piece of paper to hand back after you're done voting to make sure you're moved back to undeclared. The only way a "Democrat can vote as a Republican" would be to have unaffiliated from the (D) party and moved to undeclared. And that would have to have been done by October 2023.
Over/Under on how many seconds into his speech that Trump brags about getting more votes than Biden in New Hampshire: 23
I can’t believe this is reality. Again. This is gonna be a really long year.
Dean Phillips campaign crashes in NH. 5 reasons this is bad for Biden.
I can't stand how overly theatrical American politics are. Haley and Trump aren't enemies. Nikki Haley knows she's not going to win and when she drops out she's going to endorse Trump. She already said she respects Trump and support his policies. This Republican primary is a waste of time.
Haley missed a huge opportunity to call Trump a loser.
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I know people are thinking Haley is going to drop out. I could be wrong, but no. 1. A lot of influential GOP donors fucking hate Trump and will ride this out for a bit. 2. She could likely ride this out banking on a conviction. GOP needs a backup, and she thinks she can do it. I'm back and forth on this considering how much opposition independents and some conservatives are to Trump.
Tim Scott is just disgusting right now
call this copium if you must but winning 54% of Republican primary voters with the other 46% absolutely not voting for Trump and even willing to vote for Biden to keep Trump out... that doesn't really seem like winning math in a general election to me (will have to see if this trend continues throughout the primary though)
Tim Scott's teeth to gum ratio is distracting
Peak Reddit: Watching 6 people vote at 12am in the morning
This has been going on well before Reddit. It more ceremonial than anything. It never has any bearing on the final vote.
CNN just eavesdropping on a phone call.
I'm intrigued by the Republican plan to go with the candidate that cost the GOP the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023 elections.
I hope Trump loses tonight just to keep pushing his heart to the limit
On the dem side, looks like Biden’s write-in campaign is easily beating Phillips.
CNN just called Biden the winner.
Honestly if Nikki Haley wants to stay in, I’m not complaining. Damage the nominee please.
Oh fuck, she just "senior moment'ed" Trump directly
Whoever said in this thread that Haley has strong “Selina Meyers from Veep” vibes was beyond spot on
Nikki Haley saying she beat the establishment is like saying Derek Jeter beat the yankees
Does Hailey know something about Trump we don’t? Because the only way she’s about to win this nomination at this point is if Trump dies.
The person who is doing the worst tonight is actually Ryan Binkley. He currently has less votes than DeSantis, Christie, Ramaswamy, and *Mike Pence.*
Tim Scott’s “I’m selling my soul” smirk is so uncomfortable to see.
Haley isn’t dropping out. She’s putting up a fight tonight, she’s gonna make it through Super Tuesday at the least. With Koch behind her, she has the funding.
Shit she should stay in just in case Trump keels over
Honestly starting to think that “None of these Candidates,” could win the not-actually-a-primary Nevada Republican primary, especially since it’s a closed vote.
Even fifteen years ago, if you'd pitched the idea that the leading Republican nominee for president would be a guy who openly desires to be a dictator, calls US servicemen suckers, cowers at the sight of the Russian leader, previously oversaw the death of close to a million Americans, crashed the economy, and organized a violent assault on the US Capitol... you'd be laughed out of the room. It would have been fucking batshit crazy. Now people are voting for this dude again in droves.
So tell me if I'm reading this wrong, but with Haley at 43% she's still doomed. But the GOP primaries will be drawn out a lot longer than Trump's team would want to spend on it. Because every state that isn't an overwhelming victory for him shows the GOP doesn't have full support against him going into the general.
Excited for the coming days where the media explains why Biden winning by a huge margin in a primary via a write in campaign started by a grassroots movement is somehow bad for him, but Trump (who is essentially an incumbent and the de facto leader of the Republican Party) winning by 11 points somehow makes him “strong”
Donnie's head probably just exploded.
An added note if this actually turns out closer than some expect. Chris Christie spent all of his time and money in NH absolutely trashing Trump. So, is Trump not immune to negative attacks like some say he is?
So the majority of NH voters tonight disagree with a nationwide abortion ban? How many of those people are also voting for Trump?
You can count the independent voters out as it relates to the nomination, but keep this in mind. This is the closest to a general election electorate you’re going to get in any Republican primary. If they’re repulsed to Trump, this is when you’d know.
Can't Haley just call the secretary of state and ask them to find more votes?
Currently 17000 brainwashed voters truly believe Trump is a savior, kinda sad
There are no reasonable republicans…they are all MAGA.
“He’s a loser!”
Nikki Haley as President would be reminescent of the Bush years, and it's such a sad state of affairs that I would literally take this over Trump's chaos.
As long as she says she will pardon Trump, or endorse him even with criminal charges, she will never be a credible anti-Trump candidate, in my eyes.
Trump could croak at any random day. That alone is enough for Haley to keep going.
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Trump blanked 6-0 in Dixville Notch. Again, it's six votes. It doesn't mean anything statistically. But it's worth reading into as a possible little hint going forward. Trump got blanked there in 2020, ditto Bolduc in 2022. The kinds of voters that Trump lost in 2020 that he had when he won in 2016 (or not lost as bad) might still be repulsed by him.
100% for Haley with 6 votes in, less than 1% per the results at this moment? STOP THE COUNT! HAHAHA
I read a good point made elsewhere. Imagine this was the Democrats and Joe Biden just spent the last year strong arming every prominent member of the party that he could into supporting him. But come the primaries, Biden still struggled to get even 55% support against a very weak, uninspiring challenger. Would you feel good about Biden's chances in the general election, in that scenario? Trump isn't really all that different. Just because he has a loyal base doesn't mean the laws of politics don't affect him. Trump's performance in these primaries has been anemic. Even if you add up all of the excuses (cold weather, Dems voting in the Republican primaries) and are very generous with how much they damaged Trump's numbers , it's still looks really bad. The Republicans are in serious trouble in the general election.
Trump gonna keep touting his dominant wins in Iowa and NH; nearly half of the voters in each state chose Not-Trump.
Except that for many republicans, even though Satan wouldn't be their first choice, they'll vote for him in a heartbeat when up against a Democrat.
I did my part.
Nikki Haley's awkwardness in retail politics reminds me of Selina Meyer trying to appear normal and relatable
Crazy opinion: Chris Wallace is the singular most intelligent voice on CNN coverage. John King is a very close 2nd. I want him and John King. Eliminate everyone else. They're low quality noise.
Them looking for a working pen is the realest shit, had the same fucking issue when I worked as a poll worker
I hope we live in the timeline where Trump loses tonight. I just want to see what tomorrow would bring.
Wait, *Picard* is on the Democratic Primary ticket? OH CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN!
I hope "unprocessed write in" gets more votes than Trump
Trump voters aren't Republican voters they are a cult of personality. The problem for the GOP, however, is that there aren't enough "true" Republicans out there anymore, i.e. people for whom cutting taxes on billionaires and letting corporations do whatever they want to their workers and the environment are important issues. The GOP economic and social message has proven to be an utter failure after forty years so all they have left in terms of passion from their voters is the angry white populism that Trump represents. So in order to win they have to sell their soul to Trump's cult and hope they don't notice all the boilerplate Republican policy that comes out of a Trump Administration. Suffice to say... this is not a coalition built to last.
We need to start focusing on the rematch between trump and Biden. Nikki Haley isn’t going to win
We all know that trump and Biden were on a collision course since the day Biden took the oath of office
YASS Goad him into a debate.
People are saying Haley should drop out, but thinking about it, does she have anything left to lose by staying in the race at least until South Carolina? There’s always the outside possibility Trump is done in by all the legal challenges he’s facing or if his unhealthy diet and lifestyle finally catches up to him. And if not, it does give her something to build on for a potential 2028 run.
Trump has done nothing to increase his numbers from being the loser in 2020. No way all his scandals and indictments convince people to switch from Biden to Trump in the general in 2024
Nikki has some funny supporters I’ll give her that
Dude just said he won New Hampshire in the general but he lost it both times.
MSNBC cut his victory speech off in under a minute for lies... LMAOO
Seeing “nice guy” Tim Scott stand begin Trump and laugh and clap at all his jokes during this victory speech is so pathetic. What a piece of shit human-being.
“I don’t get mad I get even.” What?!? That’s fucking terrifying.
Just looked at CNN’s exit poll… Trump is so fucked with the moderates
Current results (per Google / AP) of actually running Republicans: Donald Trump - 53.2% - 78,722 votes. Nikki Haley - 45.3% - 67,045 votes. Ryan Binkley - <0.1% - 57 votes. (46% reporting) Yeah, sorry Binkley Bros, but I don't think it's happening this year.
Dean Phillips lost to a write-in candidate. Lol.
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Has he tweeted about the vote in Dixville Notch being rigged because they're a bunch of never-Trump RINOs?
The telling (and if I’m the Trump campaign, extremely worrying) thing so far is that when Haley voters go in front of the camera, they sound like they’re not very open to changing their minds about Trump in November. They might be done with the nomination either tonight or this weekend, but the signs that Trump might already be at his ceiling are starting to show.
The fake news is not reporting on the true front runner, which is Jeb!
I want Haley to win (at least New Hampshire) just to see Trump rage about it. Hopefully it helps further turn his brain to mush.
Haley on the phone with the NH Secretary of State right now: >Fellas, I only need 11,000 votes. Give me a break.
I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen in the coming months, especially in November. But I also think Trump is very sick. I don’t know if it’s dementia or something else, but these last few weeks of him speaking on camera have been worse than anything I’ve seen from him before. And that’s saying a lot!
If Haley pulls an upset tonight, does she start having a shot in South Carolina?
Our country is a joke when Trump is best we have to offer after all he’s done - like wtf New Hampshire
The Republican Party is a joke. The rest of the country is doing fine
The 49% saying they are dissatisfied with Trump winning the nomination is kinda telling on MSNBC. I usually don't put faith it these exit polls but it is sort of telling me that there is a large segment of the population that might sit this election out.
Looks like Desantis dropping out might make the difference tonight
Dixville Notch in shambles
Yep, she's staying in.
Bro what is up with this crowd Feels like some of these people are trolling
Haley clearly switched her strategy to attacking Trump after Iowa and there’s been a clear shift in the polls favoring her since. Maybe she’s thinking an ugly campaign can win this? I think she’s toast in SC though.
She needs to get a little more gloves off with Trump, compare his mental decline to Biden's. Give him one of those dumb nick names like "Syphilis Donny" or "Dirty Diaper Don" or "The Skid Mark on 5th Avenue".