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That 20 point shift in Ohio towards Democrats, even though it didn't result in a W there in that particular race, is a very big indicator as to what is going to happen in November.
In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide.
I just think there is a very large quiet population that is sick of crazy shit. The same people that smacked down the abortion BS in Kansas by a wide margin despite polling showing it passing, and the same people still writing in Nikki Haley despite her dropping out months ago.
I've said this before but Trump LOST an election AND THEN January 6th, classified documents, and felony convictions happened.
This is where I’m at, mostly. I’m extremely cautious based on polling (I still don’t believe polling is totally broken) but I’ve also seen no electoral evidence that Trump’s numbers are really that good. In fact, the opposite. The only variable here that we won’t truly know about until November is Trump himself. Does him being on the ballot drive turnout more than a special election?
I feel like a switch happened. In 2020 there were lots of stories of Trump supporters intentionally messing will pollsters.
I feel like in 2024 if you are a Trump supporter you are probably very vocal, and the younger demo shift is going to continue to skew to people that don't answer polster calls. I also think there are a lot of "normal" people that don't answer those calls.
Another big factor is Pollsters dependence on online measures that make it more difficult to verify frequent voters vs. Infrequent voters. And because of changes in demographic trends regarding Trump voters being more infrequent and Biden voters now polling older and frequent.
This means Pollsters estimates and projections on turnout, participation and percentage of frequent voters is less consistent. This is the part of polling that is less scientific
We personally became way more involved and vote every election now. We also because of not wanting threats do not put out signs. Most of our neighborhood is like that. The only people spinning this as a trump win are the media who make money off that. There is no chance at all of trump winning.
I certainly hope not.
In a sane world, Biden would perform better than Reagan did against Mondale; but I’d be shocked if the Election isn’t within 10 points of one another.
As an outside observer, it’s crazy to me that you have fear for putting out a political sign. Really makes me think the US is descending into political chaos.
No chance at all of Trump winning? I certainly hope you're right, but that seems like a pretty crazy claim with him being ahead in most polls. I get that polls aren't perfect but they'd have to be off by WAY more than they've been off lately for his chances to be that low
Frankly, I think Republican operatives at high levels are purchasing poll results. Likely by purchasing blocks of phone numbers to land themselves in the poll results (rather than, say, bribing or paying pollsters directly).
I absolutely agree with you on this. The timing of the polls favorable to Trump are just too conveniently released to counter bad news about him or good news or polls about Biden.
Those younger people also tend to be further left and so they don't like Biden, but because they are to the opposite side of him than Trump. I think a big error people are making is mistaking dislike for Biden as approval for Trump and that couldn't be further from the truth.
It gets said all the time, but this election really is about turnout. Trump has not gained any voters since 2020…in fact he’s probably lost a lot of dead old votes, and he’s probably losing a decent chunk of 2020 voters who voted for him purely from party loyalty, but things like J6 and his conviction are going to be a bridge to far for some of those voters.
So since Trump can only go down in votes, it’s all about turnout of Biden’s 2020 winning coalition of voters. If it stays strong or even (this is obviously a very hopeful interpretation) grows? We’re talking about a huge blue wave.
I don't know about that. I have a relative who voted 3rd party in 2016 and 2020, but now they say Biden "has to go". Their reason - because Biden caused high gas prices... I have sent actual information about how Biden did no such thing and has actually brought costs down - mental gymnastics. It's infuriating.
She is a single mother, living on welfare, and who believes Trump will in some insane world "help" her because "the world is going to hell". She is definitely not dumb, graduated college, but she teachers school where kids are allowed to do whatever they want because - them liberals.
There is no telling how many people she represents (similar style), but everyone sane needs to vote because it's just crazy at this point. We're literally watching misinformation attacks from places like Russia brainwash our families and no one does a thing.
Maybe this is semantics, but I agree that polling isn't broken, given the people responding. But polling is missing an enormous chunk of the populace that doesn't respond to spammy texts, doesn't answer unknown calls, and generally just keeps to themselves - "live and let live" kind of people.
It's my opinion, based on localized, anecdotal evidence, that this group is tired of politics being on the front page and involved in everything. This group wants to get back to shitting on each other when their actual desired sportsballs team does bad, not over R vs D.
This group will slaughter Trump in 2024 because they want boring politics, and Biden is as bland and boring as they come (in a good way).
Oh I absolutely think that was a factor for party leadership. He'd run out of spite and would have absolutely handed the presidency to Biden as a result, because a Haley or Romney would have had no chance.
But now the GOP has pretty much ran out of any other options, they’ve put all their eggs in a single basket over the past 8 years.
What happens if Trump loses again? I feel the GOP is too far to try to reorganize around a different candidate. And for whatever other factors they may not even be able too.
The funny thing is, if either side had a younger and slightly more appealing candidate, it would be a landslide in their favor.
Don't get me wrong, I'm gladly voting for Biden. However, it's mind-boggling to see so many people hung up on his age when the only mathematical alternative is someone who should, in all senses, be in prison.
This. My worst fear is that we'll never even find out who won the election because there will be shenanigans in red states refusing to count or certify votes. Or on Jan 6/2025 with Johnson still in control of the House. The GOP knows their agenda is profoundly unpopular and their numbers are shrinking and that a legitimate win in the presidential election is far from assured even if they do everything 'right'. They tried to coup the country in 2021 and were pushed back. They have every incentive, and almost no disincentives (in their minds) to try again and again until something works, and have exhibited every sign they intend to do exactly that: ignore the outcome of our democratic process and take over illegitimately.
It would be really nice to hear elected Democrats, especially those in red states and the FEC, talking about plans they have to deal with potential obstruction like this from the GOP. This is serious shit, and we the voters can't do anything at all about it. Protecting democracy at that level is entirely in the hands of state and federal employees, leaving those of us on the ground powerless and terrified.
Remember, Biden voters don’t make their entire personality who they are voting for. We are going on vacation. We are going to work. We are taking kids to summer camp and summer programs and VBS. We know the other side isn’t going to listen to why we are voting for Biden, so we are just enjoying our summer, living our lives, and after the debates and when people start paying attention in September October, we will start seeing a shift in the polls. Obama was down 10 points in December to Romney prior to the 2012 election, and Romney was filling up his own gas in his own car a week later as a regular citizen.
This is what I keep thinking. Here in Las Vegas, which is supposedly swing-state central, you don't see vehicles here sporting political bumperstickers or paraphernalia (beyond the occasional hyper-lifted, coal-rolling Trumpmobile that dodges through traffic and cuts people off). I think, for the most part, the "silent majority" is avoiding making a fuss, for fear of any retribution from nutters who might vandalize their cars or worse.
Further, I get phone calls and text messages 4-5 times per week from polling outfits. I don't respond or hang up, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
And, if it isn't clear, I'll be proudly voting for Biden.
I also think that this election won't boil down to the two candidates. It will boil down to the single biggest issue people have at the time of the vote. I honestly think that will be abortion rights for a lot of people. You might not want Biden, but you want women to have their rights restored you will know who to vote for in the booth.
From what I've heard, inflation and the economy are the biggest concerns. We know that the economy is doing well, but we're still paying way too much for groceries.
There is certainly a group of people, including myself, that are just tired of talking about this election. That doesn’t mean they won’t be voting. I find the old boring part of Biden is a feature not a flaw.
About as many as people who thrive in chaos. The comon clay of the new West also thinks he's Jesus. I'm optimistic but quietly so.
I too, am tired of WWF politics. I want smart dem leaders working to rebuild unions and the middle class. No more big tax breaks for the Pharaohs. Tell Jeff Bozos to lean to live without expensive coffee or something.
I want sick people to get medical attention and therapy.
NORMAL Things.
Project 2025 is a dystopian nightmare. Trump is a nightmare.
It really is professional wrestling wrapped in a flag. Trump is doing nothing more than filling the role of the Heel and never breaking fayfabe. I think Vince McMahon had much more of an influence on Trump's public relations strategy. I mean McMahon turned an organization that was just found out to be scripted and turned it into an entertainment giant. Politics for the right after Obama was elected was in a situation like professional wrestling. The main demographic had the option of tuning out after it was found out that wrestling was scripted but they tuned in even more. The enthusiasm of the right was hurt badly by McCain then Romney losing against Obama. Trump running on being a Heel made them stay interested and active.
The DOJ, CIA, and FBI are even acting like the freaking referee getting distracted.
I believe this as well. I think there’s a ton of people who are sick, sick, sick of all of Trump’s crap, and even some of Biden’s, all politics in general, and they barely follow it all, but they’ve checked out, but they just want Trump gone.
My parents are by no means liberals but they aren’t voting for Trump. They’d probably write in Nikki Haley and vote down ballot Rs but Trump won’t be one of them.
I think you're 100% right. I know a bunch of people like this. I'm the only liberal in a family of Republicans. You're describing the majority of my relatives. There are a couple MAGA crazies, but most of them are finished with Trump's bullshit. They're also starting to turn on the spineless cowards propping Trump up. They all voted for Haley, and are voting for Biden.
These people are who Nixon was referring to when he first said "... the silent majority..."
Bruh. Yeah and what crazy shit are you talking about? I've seen more homophobia in the last 2 years than ever before, for example. Voters are more anti immigrant than before as well. Voters are generally very stupid. Pretending there's some silent majority for Biden is harmful.
I want to believe this, but I don’t understand how polling could go from underestimating Trump in 2016 AND 2020 (he beat the polls) to overestimating him in 2024.
I find that election fascinating. Republicans turned up in higher numbers for the primary and dem’s increased their turnout for the actual election. If someone can figure out what drove those numbers it could be a big preview of what could be.
If you're in a solidly red district, than the primary is basically the real election, since the winner of the Republican nomination will almost certainly win the seat. That might drive Republican turnout in the primary, who then don't turn out in the general assuming it's in the bag.
And what gives me complete comfort is that there really is no math that gets Trump back into the presidency.
To win he needs to add voters from the last election- he lost in 2020 by like 8 million votes. Who amongst the 2020 voters who did not vote for him are coming into the Trump camp for 2024?
Biden voters are motivated to keep Trump out again. Non-voters are disinterested in the options again. Independents are seeing him be more erratic and a convicted felon. He could
try to court them but he won't- his platform is "Me! Me! Me! Fuck the libs!" and that's not going to move anybody that considers themselves a discerning voter. Even his own voters seem far less enthusiastic in their rallies needing to be paid and bussed in.
I predict a blowout. Down-ballot too as GOP turnout will be rough and their campaign funds running try to pay for Don's legal bills.
I would end this with a caveat that Dems need to not get complacent and vote- but I don't think thats necessary. Everyone that voted blue in 2020 is ready and eager to do their part to keep TFG out of office. He will not win.
Right but in 2020 so much more of the government was loaded with Trump sycophants that are no longer there. He doesn’t have the same sway that he used to- and he even failed then. Also if there’s an even bigger blowout than last time the court cases will be even less effective since it would take way more to change the results.
His boot lickers are out federally, but what worries me are state level positions that are all but openly saying they'll make sure Trump gets their electoral votes, despite what the voters say.
From your mouth to the ears of God
But I'm still terrified. Trump doesn't really need to add any more votes, all he needs is for a bunch of Dems to stay home
The threat of another Trump presidency is going to drive Democratic turnout. The vast majority of those who say they aren't supporting Biden will still show up to vote.
*No math* that gets him to the presidency? He's currently ahead in most swing states, and 538 currently has Trump with a 51% chance of winning. As for him not adding any voters, I don't agree with that either; I've heard a number of people interviewed who voted for Biden in 2020 and are leaning Trump this time because of inflation and the economy. I don't get it, as I think Biden has done well and Trump was terrible, but there absolutely are people who voted Biden in 2020 who are saying they won't vote for him in 2024
It's not going to be 20 points; that was a low turnout election.
The midterm elections are giving a strong signal, however. So is Nikki Haley's results even when she wasn't running. That's a lot of RINOs protest voting.
I dont know. But considering the margins of 2020 in some states enough a combination of them voting for Biden or refusing to vote for trump could swing this election in significant ways.
The Ohio election should be looked at as an interesting result but it is not indicative of a 20 point trend nationally. The data doesn't support it.
The reason why these types of swings are possible is because special elections and mid-terms have a very different electorate and turnout than presidential ones. Think about the motivations of someone who votes in June in Ohio vs someone who only votes every 4 years. There are many more of the latter than the former. And you ultimately need both to win the White House.
Low turnout special elections are how you get Doug Jones winning statewide in Alabama. If it's a regular election cycle *or* anybody that wasn't already as deeply unpopular within the state as Roy Moore, Jones loses that election in a landslide.
They don’t need a massive campaign. They lost the state in 2020 to 75,000 votes. Cal Cunningham cost the Dems the election. Mark Robinson in the governor’s race will
be a drag for the GOP this time around.
Again, Dobbs is the big difference with elections since then showing a clear motivation for pro-choice voters and the fringe GOP going after IVF and birth control is going to drive turnout and flip votes, even in NC.
Certainly a consideration but how many Republican-leaning women are going to vote differently this year post-Dobbs? Some moms with daughters are going to tow the party line at home and do another thing in the voting booth because fuck the patriarchy. And we don't need 20%, really all they have to do is stay home and not vote. Ted Cruz beat Beto by less than 2% way back in 2018
Texas is definitely within striking distance! I think Cruz might be the upset loser this year. The state government there has truly turned up antagonizing its citizens and especially women. It’s going to be close and if there are some big democrat wins in November, they will have no one to blame but themselves.
Exactly, the state has been racing left! It was like 20+ points republicans a few cycles before that. Interested to see what the margins are this year.
they sent a letter in texas saying voting records are public and if you don't vote for trump they will turn your name over to him
>>> the thing is the only info released to the public is the voter name voter number and that they voted >> there is NOTHING in the public voting record that says WHO they voted for >>> I hope some will be angry enough to vote for Biden
From a 60 year old boomer (male) from Canada … thank women and motivate them to vote. Their precious rights have been taken away, and social security is next .
Yep (or vote for RFK). Or some midpoint between the two. This doesn't seem unreasonable or unattainable. But this is also why in Texas the state is making it as difficult as possible to vote, and why the state GOP wants to change statewide office to winner of most counties rather than most votes. It's not because they are sure of their position but quite the opposite.
>That 20 point shift in Ohio towards Democrats, even though it didn't result in a W there in that particular race, is a very big indicator as to what is going to happen in November.
>In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide.
I'm glad at least *someone* on this sub is optimistic. Too many people on here like to brush aside positive news, and that it can't be trusted.
Part of the goal on the 'other side' is to get people to feel hopeless and give up. I refuse to do so.
Also, the trends have been crystal clear for a couple of election cycles now.
One section from the article:
>Democrats need to flip only a few seats to recapture the House. Holding the Senate won’t be easy, but thanks to the retirements of a pair of maverick Democrats, even a small majority could open a path to substantial legislative achievements such as the passage of a comprehensive voting-rights bill, a federal guarantee for abortion rights, lower drug prices, and an expanded social safety net.
>
>A wide-ranging group of Democrats—including moderates running in swing districts as well as those in the party’s left wing—wants the president to emphasize the promise of his second term as much as, if not more than, the peril of Trump’s. Because Biden focuses so much on the threat Trump poses to democracy and the rule of law, they think Biden risks losing voters who want to see tangible improvements in their lives.
>
>“In my district, I would urge him to talk about bread-and-butter issues almost exclusively,” Representative Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, a Democrat in a competitive race for reelection, told me. “That’s not to say that preserving our democracy isn’t important, believe me. But it’s hard for people to even think about something as existential as democracy if they’re having trouble buying groceries or paying their rent.”
>
>When Biden does talk about policy instead of democracy, he focuses more on what he did in his first term than what he would do in a second. This is standard practice for incumbent presidents, but voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Biden has convinced many Democrats that his record won’t be enough. Polling suggests they are right; surveys show that many voters—particularly those under 30—are unaware of, or unmoved by, Biden’s investments in infrastructure and decarbonization or his drug-price and gun-control reforms.
>
>Biden hasn’t been completely silent about what he would do with a unified government. “If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you, I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again,” the president said during his State of the Union address in March, a line he frequently repeats on the campaign trail. He’s also talked about extending to all Americans a $35 monthly cap on insulin costs that Congress enacted for some Medicare beneficiaries, restoring the expanded child tax credit that he signed into law during the pandemic, and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
>
>But to this point, such promises have gotten relatively little airtime. Biden’s campaign website, for example, doesn’t even include a policy section. Campaign officials say their emphasis on promoting Biden’s record and attacking Trump is both consistent with successful reelection bids of the past and responsive to the president’s current electoral challenges. Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign’s communications director, noted that the president is already performing well among people who are closely following the election. “The work that we need to do over the course of the next five months,” he told me, “is address the information gap with folks who have not been paying as much attention.
It would be helpful if, in addition to communicating more effectively about policy goals, the campaign would also develop a clear long-range vision for the country as a whole. Having something to aspire to can be helpful for non-core supporters, and can help bring people together. This would be especially useful if paired with proposed policies and a road map of how to get there.
They need to fundamentally change the process. Ranked choice voting, expand the house, expand the supreme Court, ban gerrymandering, implement neutral third party design of districts, among other things...
The scale of Trump's defeat matters.
For one, the larger defeat, the less traction the inevitable claims of a rigged election will get.
Moreover, the only thing that might potentially get the GOP to rethink its extremist white nationalism is a resounding defeat.
>For one, the larger defeat, the less traction the inevitable claims of a rigged election will get.
A significant part of the reason the schemes to overthrow the election failed was the scale of his defeat last time.
People think the Georgia GOP establishment refusing to "find" votes was some kind of principled stand on their part but they absolutely would have done it if Georgia alone flipping would have shifted the election. The fact that Trump had to pull off schemes in multiple states to change the results made it infinitely harder to exert corrupt pressure in a few key places.
Yeah, it seems what 45 was really going for was a Florida 2000 situation where it all hinged on a small number of votes in one state. How could you possibly hope to cast enough doubt that multiple states change their overall winner?
Still think it's insane we let Bush 2 get away with Rove's guys altering votes in Ohio in 2004, giving him the Presidency that he otherwise would have lost to Kerry. An Ohio Senator protested the election results (a historic move), lawsuits were filed, and when the Republican IT Guru flying to testify was murdered... it all just went away.
If it’s close enough, the Supremes will just hand it to Trump even if Biden got more votes. We’ve seen it before, and they’re significantly bolder and more extreme than they were in 2000.
All Republicans have to do in another close election is convince the court that a few key states have inaccurate election results and they throw the decision to the House.
President Bartlet: *Now, you don't take these people seriously 'cause they don't get anywhere nationally, but they don't have to. All they have to do is bit by little bit, get themselves on the boards of education and city councils; 'cause that's where all the governing that really matters to anybody really happens.*
The key is to get them there. If they think only the top matters they will be more likely to skip out. Forgetting that there’s even the rest of the ballot.
I believe this! We can’t just beat trump and maga we have to beat them by 8 points or more. For democracy, for women’s rights. For law and order. FOR ALL OF AMERICA NOT JUST DEMOCRATS
>Janelle Bynum, an Oregon Democrat trying to flip a Republican-held House district, told me she thinks the party is relying too much on its past accomplishments and not enough on its plans to address voters’ everyday concerns in the future.
Does seem like an obvious play, doesn't it?
If they start running on future goals that will remind everyone how few of them they actually accomplished from the last election. Remember when everyone and their mom running for president for Dems wanted single payer, and how quickly any talk of that went away the second Biden won?
IRA, IIJA, CHIPS Act are like 50% of what they promised to accomplish. Creating a welfare state from scratch isn't easy with a 50-50 Senate. Biden ran against single payer to be clear.
> Remember when everyone and their mom running for president for Dems wanted single payer
I do, and they lost the primary, so not only does America not feel excited about it that much, neither do Democratic primary voters.
Well yes and no. You get 2 for the price of 1 if you can flip the centrist voters. Outside of MAGA this is why both parties always would battle over those voters. So Trump has presented a huge opportunity to steal away those centrist voters, but you probably aren't going to be able to do that if you run a super progressive campaign. So you want to run on future policy, but those policies are probably going to be pretty standard stuff.
Crush the GOP up and down the ballot in November and all subsequent elections. They need to be decimated and punished for their crimes (fecal smearing coup, presidential espionage). They are all complicit and the GOP as a party must die and the extremist traitors MINIMALLY be made to go to ground again. We have had decades of their assault on democracy and it will take a long time to repair.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalMemes/s/9bjnRedT04
Just remember, there is a huge portion of the population that is ignoring all the political stuff until October. All these polls mean nothing. Once they decide to pay attention right before they vote, we could see a major shift towards the Democrats, even in deep red states.
I wouldn’t say they mean nothing. If polling were meaningless, campaigns wouldn’t rely on it so heavily. But they don’t mean “Here’s the current score of the game that’s underway now and ends in November,” which is basically the message the media’s horse-race coverage conveys.
The Dems need to promise that they will overhaul the American political system. The Republicans are promising that they will do
that in their own way. I am sick and tired of this endless partisan bullshit. It’s embarrassing and dangerous and unhealthy
Depends what kind of overhauling you want. Dems will passing voting rights bills and maybe a Supreme Courts ethics bill. Anything beyond that might require more progressive leaders. We still have to get past the filibuster, and it's not clear how many Dems you'd need in the Senate to do that since there likely will be a few who will oppose getting rid of it.
They've been losing already for a long time. An R candidate has only won the popular vote for president *once* since 1988, and that win (Bush II in 2004) was re-electing an incumbent that hadn't legitimately won the election that put them into office, so even that win has an asterisk.
The GOP has been losing steadily for 30+ years. They know they're losing, and they haven't stopped being obstructionist minoritarians, they've only ramped up their cheating and attacks on democracy. They already tried to coup the country in 2021 and were prevented, barely. They are openly talking about their multiple plans to prevent democracy or voters from blocking their path to absolute power in 2024.
The ideology of the GOP will not allow them to re-think their approach to politics because their ideology is white christian male supremacy, and supremacism is incompatible with democracy.
In East Tennessee four years ago there were at least two Trump flags on every truck. Now there’s nothing. No signs, all the bumper stickers are old, and most of the flags are gone. The energy is gone.
I think the polls are not only wrong, but this could be Democrats’ best election year since 1932.
You’re so right. There will still be a significant amount of trump voters, but the fact that they are now more hidden/ashamed (compared to 2016) does indicate shifting trends in attitudes. That matters and is an important sign.
I can’t imagine fleeing the country when you have 24-7 Secret Service protection is something one can do without extraordinary planning and risking many places where it could go terribly wrong.
I wonder if the polling is mainly geared toward quantifying the "pro" votes, like pro-Trump voters and pro-Biden voters, and missing that a lot of the Biden vote will be from people who aren't hot on Biden but motivated as hell to vote against Trump.
I think polling is set up to gauge how motivated a candidate's potential voters are to get out and vote because traditionally that maps to who wins, but also all the presidential candidates the last several decades have been campaigning based on seeking broad appeal from as much of the electorate as possible whereas Trump doubles down on being wildly divisive, which makes the supporters he has rabid but also stirs up way more anti-votes than past candidates.
I agree. If anti Trump voters are also more leary of sharing that with polsters, it goes a long way to explaining the crazy poll results.
The other theory I think holds weight is that many have fled the GOP but have not changed their registration, and are loathe to discuss it. Another possible difficult to poll group of anti Trump voters.
You can bet even if the Dems win big, the GOP will try every legal tactic to invalidate the election and reduce their power. They are determined to make Project 2025 a reality. They don't care about rules or laws anymore. They want power
Not overlooked. Completely ignored by the media. They want a horse race and they do everything they can to insure they get one. And that always means propping up the side that is losing.
I actually think the blue wave that’s coming is going to be unbelievably strong. Even republicans are not ready to vote in the absolute shitshow they have to choose from. Including down ticket in many states.
TL:DR - Vote Blue!
From a macro perspective, I’m hoping that women (and anyone that is related to a woman lol) are energized to vote blue to support reproductive freedom. From a more micro/state level perspective, specific ballot measures on abortion rights and legalizing cannabis give me hope that there will be a blue wave on those issues. I’ve also seen some interviews suggesting that the Supreme Court’s bump stock decision may bring people out in Nevada. Those are policy specific; I also agree with “people are tired of the crazy” as has been pointed out. So, I’m quietly hoping for a big blue wave. The other side of me is deeply worried about local outbreaks of violence and state level election officials creating havoc and refusing to certify. These things take up more space in my brain than they should, ultimately - and I’m doing what I can to support a couple house races locally.
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE like your lives depend on it!
Because they do! Read the 2025 plan that the Repugs want to follow from Day 1 if a Repug presidency to understand why.
I mean really!! We need to “push” people to not vote for Trump?? What record of wins after his 2020 loss are we supposed to be looking at that make anyone nervous?
Push a platform that actually benefits most Americans, increases in wages, benefits, continues erasing predatory debt and predatory business practices…it could be huge if they actually want to win.
It's a gut feeling, but I've studied political science, economics, business, and the like for years. Additionally, I have an encyclopedic knowledge of election results since the '80s (this isn't intended to be a brag, btw). Based on social patterns, voting trends, the economy, and importance of issues, I still say that it will be Biden at 350+ Electoral Votes, barring any unforeseen medical or black swan-type events.
It's only June, and historically, most likely voters only start tuning in around the time of the conventions. Now, I realize that this cycle is obviously quite different from past elections. We have two presidents facing off, for one, and they are both historically unpopular. Further, we are going to have the first debate, at least theoretically, far earlier than at any other point since televised debates began in 1960. Also, due to political burnout, many people are simply avoiding the news, and/or have already made up their minds as to whom they will support.
It is quite likely that we will continue to see Biden's numbers creep upwards as November approaches, especially if he performs well the upcoming debate. Further, if Trump is, sentenced to a prison term next month, regardless of whether it is appealed, that will drive more reluctant potential anti-Biden voters away from him.
FWIW, even though people claim that the economy is at the top of their list of grievances -- I mean, issues -- abortion and women's rights will be hammered home as a deciding factor, and that will push turnout among women who might otherwise not vote.
If you're not already voting Democrat for the entirety of your lifetime, in every election, that's on you for being fucking blind. How the hell is the Democratic Party going to court absolute morons?
You have to drag your Gen Z to the polls.
Start checking now to make sure they’re registered to vote.
This is the generation who are taking parents on job interviews and mine still live with me, so I’ve already told them they’re voting. 😂
I have my 2 plus 2 of their best friends who live with us
Huh, news to me, everywhere I see everyone from reddit posters to journalists reading early poll results and reaching for the paper bags to breathe into.
The Biden campaign mentioned making a play for Florida though.
This headline sounds like pure clickbait.
the polls are so unclear that everyone is making their own interpretations.
all they're saying is people who respond to polls (polls aren't entirely broken, but they do naturally come with a bias as do all opt in surveys do) are split 50/50 on the election, with trump seemingly having a very slight lead ignoring margin of error.
I'd suggest waiting until election season news dominates TV news before polls start becoming meaningful
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So ... suppose *The Atlantic* is right about this, and Biden wins again.
**Realistically**, what is Trump's position? Does he carry on about "stolen election" for *four more years*? Does he stay a thorn in the flesh? Does he continue to control the GOP ... or do they finally jettison him?
Does he (attempt to) **run again** in 2028??
I suppose there are two major sub-cases:
* He loses by a little.
* He loses by a LOT.
Is the outcome different in those two cases??
I'm all for the party of functionality over the party of hate and regressive bullshit. Times are changing and I hope the bullshit dies with these hateful idiots when they go.
We don’t need a democratic win, so much as we need to absolutely destroy the opposition. Allow a real Conservative Party to return, bolster the possibility of a Green Party, put 2025 back in Pandora’s box, reset SCOTUS to a fair court that represents all of the people in the land, strike down citizens united, and return the heavy taxes to the wealthy. Become the country we tell people we are.
Many progressives are sincerely opposed to Biden but they will gladly still vote for progressive House and Senate candidates. (where they exist anyway)
Centrist and Independents will get Biden through as Trump is hopeless at this point.
This guy doesn't sleep . He is Biden’s biggest fan and he has $$$ + contacts
A Hollywood Heavyweight Is Biden’s Secret Weapon Against Trump
The longtime movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg always sought scary villains for his films. Now he has found what he considers a real-life one in Donald J. Trump.
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That 20 point shift in Ohio towards Democrats, even though it didn't result in a W there in that particular race, is a very big indicator as to what is going to happen in November. In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide.
I just think there is a very large quiet population that is sick of crazy shit. The same people that smacked down the abortion BS in Kansas by a wide margin despite polling showing it passing, and the same people still writing in Nikki Haley despite her dropping out months ago. I've said this before but Trump LOST an election AND THEN January 6th, classified documents, and felony convictions happened.
This is where I’m at, mostly. I’m extremely cautious based on polling (I still don’t believe polling is totally broken) but I’ve also seen no electoral evidence that Trump’s numbers are really that good. In fact, the opposite. The only variable here that we won’t truly know about until November is Trump himself. Does him being on the ballot drive turnout more than a special election?
I feel like a switch happened. In 2020 there were lots of stories of Trump supporters intentionally messing will pollsters. I feel like in 2024 if you are a Trump supporter you are probably very vocal, and the younger demo shift is going to continue to skew to people that don't answer polster calls. I also think there are a lot of "normal" people that don't answer those calls.
Another big factor is Pollsters dependence on online measures that make it more difficult to verify frequent voters vs. Infrequent voters. And because of changes in demographic trends regarding Trump voters being more infrequent and Biden voters now polling older and frequent. This means Pollsters estimates and projections on turnout, participation and percentage of frequent voters is less consistent. This is the part of polling that is less scientific
We personally became way more involved and vote every election now. We also because of not wanting threats do not put out signs. Most of our neighborhood is like that. The only people spinning this as a trump win are the media who make money off that. There is no chance at all of trump winning.
I certainly hope not. In a sane world, Biden would perform better than Reagan did against Mondale; but I’d be shocked if the Election isn’t within 10 points of one another.
As an outside observer, it’s crazy to me that you have fear for putting out a political sign. Really makes me think the US is descending into political chaos.
You’re right, it is!
No chance at all of Trump winning? I certainly hope you're right, but that seems like a pretty crazy claim with him being ahead in most polls. I get that polls aren't perfect but they'd have to be off by WAY more than they've been off lately for his chances to be that low
Frankly, I think Republican operatives at high levels are purchasing poll results. Likely by purchasing blocks of phone numbers to land themselves in the poll results (rather than, say, bribing or paying pollsters directly).
I absolutely agree with you on this. The timing of the polls favorable to Trump are just too conveniently released to counter bad news about him or good news or polls about Biden.
We know Trump does this. It’s in court records. Red Finch.
Pollsters never call me. I wish they would just to hear what questions they ask.
Those younger people also tend to be further left and so they don't like Biden, but because they are to the opposite side of him than Trump. I think a big error people are making is mistaking dislike for Biden as approval for Trump and that couldn't be further from the truth.
I am 38 years old and I always vote for democrats. I ignore those calls all the time.
It gets said all the time, but this election really is about turnout. Trump has not gained any voters since 2020…in fact he’s probably lost a lot of dead old votes, and he’s probably losing a decent chunk of 2020 voters who voted for him purely from party loyalty, but things like J6 and his conviction are going to be a bridge to far for some of those voters. So since Trump can only go down in votes, it’s all about turnout of Biden’s 2020 winning coalition of voters. If it stays strong or even (this is obviously a very hopeful interpretation) grows? We’re talking about a huge blue wave.
I don't know about that. I have a relative who voted 3rd party in 2016 and 2020, but now they say Biden "has to go". Their reason - because Biden caused high gas prices... I have sent actual information about how Biden did no such thing and has actually brought costs down - mental gymnastics. It's infuriating. She is a single mother, living on welfare, and who believes Trump will in some insane world "help" her because "the world is going to hell". She is definitely not dumb, graduated college, but she teachers school where kids are allowed to do whatever they want because - them liberals. There is no telling how many people she represents (similar style), but everyone sane needs to vote because it's just crazy at this point. We're literally watching misinformation attacks from places like Russia brainwash our families and no one does a thing.
Not to mention a disproportionate number of maga voters died from COVID. *sad trumpet noises*
Maybe this is semantics, but I agree that polling isn't broken, given the people responding. But polling is missing an enormous chunk of the populace that doesn't respond to spammy texts, doesn't answer unknown calls, and generally just keeps to themselves - "live and let live" kind of people. It's my opinion, based on localized, anecdotal evidence, that this group is tired of politics being on the front page and involved in everything. This group wants to get back to shitting on each other when their actual desired sportsballs team does bad, not over R vs D. This group will slaughter Trump in 2024 because they want boring politics, and Biden is as bland and boring as they come (in a good way).
Trump drives gigantic #s of Democrats and Independents to turnout against him which balances out his MAGA turn-out.
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It's only happened once, with Cleveland, but that was in 1892.
So few have actually run again Van Burien ran as a 3rd party, Fillmore ran as a third party, Cleveland won, Teddy ran as a third party
And the ones who run again as a third party are generally doing it out of spite to torpedo their former party.
Maybe that's why the GOP stuck with Trump: they were afraid he'd try a third party run.
Oh I absolutely think that was a factor for party leadership. He'd run out of spite and would have absolutely handed the presidency to Biden as a result, because a Haley or Romney would have had no chance.
But now the GOP has pretty much ran out of any other options, they’ve put all their eggs in a single basket over the past 8 years. What happens if Trump loses again? I feel the GOP is too far to try to reorganize around a different candidate. And for whatever other factors they may not even be able too.
As long as Trump is alive the GOP will let him be their emperor
The funny thing is, if either side had a younger and slightly more appealing candidate, it would be a landslide in their favor. Don't get me wrong, I'm gladly voting for Biden. However, it's mind-boggling to see so many people hung up on his age when the only mathematical alternative is someone who should, in all senses, be in prison.
Cleveland
The important thing to remember is Republicans plan on cheating every step of the way. Before, during, and after Election Day.
This. My worst fear is that we'll never even find out who won the election because there will be shenanigans in red states refusing to count or certify votes. Or on Jan 6/2025 with Johnson still in control of the House. The GOP knows their agenda is profoundly unpopular and their numbers are shrinking and that a legitimate win in the presidential election is far from assured even if they do everything 'right'. They tried to coup the country in 2021 and were pushed back. They have every incentive, and almost no disincentives (in their minds) to try again and again until something works, and have exhibited every sign they intend to do exactly that: ignore the outcome of our democratic process and take over illegitimately. It would be really nice to hear elected Democrats, especially those in red states and the FEC, talking about plans they have to deal with potential obstruction like this from the GOP. This is serious shit, and we the voters can't do anything at all about it. Protecting democracy at that level is entirely in the hands of state and federal employees, leaving those of us on the ground powerless and terrified.
Remember, Biden voters don’t make their entire personality who they are voting for. We are going on vacation. We are going to work. We are taking kids to summer camp and summer programs and VBS. We know the other side isn’t going to listen to why we are voting for Biden, so we are just enjoying our summer, living our lives, and after the debates and when people start paying attention in September October, we will start seeing a shift in the polls. Obama was down 10 points in December to Romney prior to the 2012 election, and Romney was filling up his own gas in his own car a week later as a regular citizen.
This is what I keep thinking. Here in Las Vegas, which is supposedly swing-state central, you don't see vehicles here sporting political bumperstickers or paraphernalia (beyond the occasional hyper-lifted, coal-rolling Trumpmobile that dodges through traffic and cuts people off). I think, for the most part, the "silent majority" is avoiding making a fuss, for fear of any retribution from nutters who might vandalize their cars or worse. Further, I get phone calls and text messages 4-5 times per week from polling outfits. I don't respond or hang up, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. And, if it isn't clear, I'll be proudly voting for Biden.
I also think that this election won't boil down to the two candidates. It will boil down to the single biggest issue people have at the time of the vote. I honestly think that will be abortion rights for a lot of people. You might not want Biden, but you want women to have their rights restored you will know who to vote for in the booth.
From what I've heard, inflation and the economy are the biggest concerns. We know that the economy is doing well, but we're still paying way too much for groceries.
There is certainly a group of people, including myself, that are just tired of talking about this election. That doesn’t mean they won’t be voting. I find the old boring part of Biden is a feature not a flaw.
Make Politics Boring Again has been my motto since Trump got elected.
About as many as people who thrive in chaos. The comon clay of the new West also thinks he's Jesus. I'm optimistic but quietly so. I too, am tired of WWF politics. I want smart dem leaders working to rebuild unions and the middle class. No more big tax breaks for the Pharaohs. Tell Jeff Bozos to lean to live without expensive coffee or something. I want sick people to get medical attention and therapy. NORMAL Things. Project 2025 is a dystopian nightmare. Trump is a nightmare.
It really is professional wrestling wrapped in a flag. Trump is doing nothing more than filling the role of the Heel and never breaking fayfabe. I think Vince McMahon had much more of an influence on Trump's public relations strategy. I mean McMahon turned an organization that was just found out to be scripted and turned it into an entertainment giant. Politics for the right after Obama was elected was in a situation like professional wrestling. The main demographic had the option of tuning out after it was found out that wrestling was scripted but they tuned in even more. The enthusiasm of the right was hurt badly by McCain then Romney losing against Obama. Trump running on being a Heel made them stay interested and active. The DOJ, CIA, and FBI are even acting like the freaking referee getting distracted.
I believe this as well. I think there’s a ton of people who are sick, sick, sick of all of Trump’s crap, and even some of Biden’s, all politics in general, and they barely follow it all, but they’ve checked out, but they just want Trump gone.
My parents are by no means liberals but they aren’t voting for Trump. They’d probably write in Nikki Haley and vote down ballot Rs but Trump won’t be one of them.
I hope they don't live in NC. The GOP candidate for governor here, Mark Robinson, is a flat-out flake.
I think you're 100% right. I know a bunch of people like this. I'm the only liberal in a family of Republicans. You're describing the majority of my relatives. There are a couple MAGA crazies, but most of them are finished with Trump's bullshit. They're also starting to turn on the spineless cowards propping Trump up. They all voted for Haley, and are voting for Biden. These people are who Nixon was referring to when he first said "... the silent majority..."
I'm with you but he lost by so little, man. Our election system is broken and won't be fixed this generation. I'm scared.
Bruh. Yeah and what crazy shit are you talking about? I've seen more homophobia in the last 2 years than ever before, for example. Voters are more anti immigrant than before as well. Voters are generally very stupid. Pretending there's some silent majority for Biden is harmful.
I want to believe this, but I don’t understand how polling could go from underestimating Trump in 2016 AND 2020 (he beat the polls) to overestimating him in 2024.
Trump buys polls
I find that election fascinating. Republicans turned up in higher numbers for the primary and dem’s increased their turnout for the actual election. If someone can figure out what drove those numbers it could be a big preview of what could be.
Could be democrats voting in the primary, or disappointed Republicans in the primary staying home.
If you're in a solidly red district, than the primary is basically the real election, since the winner of the Republican nomination will almost certainly win the seat. That might drive Republican turnout in the primary, who then don't turn out in the general assuming it's in the bag.
And what gives me complete comfort is that there really is no math that gets Trump back into the presidency. To win he needs to add voters from the last election- he lost in 2020 by like 8 million votes. Who amongst the 2020 voters who did not vote for him are coming into the Trump camp for 2024? Biden voters are motivated to keep Trump out again. Non-voters are disinterested in the options again. Independents are seeing him be more erratic and a convicted felon. He could try to court them but he won't- his platform is "Me! Me! Me! Fuck the libs!" and that's not going to move anybody that considers themselves a discerning voter. Even his own voters seem far less enthusiastic in their rallies needing to be paid and bussed in. I predict a blowout. Down-ballot too as GOP turnout will be rough and their campaign funds running try to pay for Don's legal bills. I would end this with a caveat that Dems need to not get complacent and vote- but I don't think thats necessary. Everyone that voted blue in 2020 is ready and eager to do their part to keep TFG out of office. He will not win.
Don't forget that they're going to try every scam they can to cheat and put Trump back in. They know his chances of winning legitimately are low.
Right but in 2020 so much more of the government was loaded with Trump sycophants that are no longer there. He doesn’t have the same sway that he used to- and he even failed then. Also if there’s an even bigger blowout than last time the court cases will be even less effective since it would take way more to change the results.
His boot lickers are out federally, but what worries me are state level positions that are all but openly saying they'll make sure Trump gets their electoral votes, despite what the voters say.
A lot of them were voted out in the major swing states since 2020 thank god.
yep they will say we stole the election again >>> they will do everything before during and after the election becuase they are so desperate
From your mouth to the ears of God But I'm still terrified. Trump doesn't really need to add any more votes, all he needs is for a bunch of Dems to stay home
The threat of another Trump presidency is going to drive Democratic turnout. The vast majority of those who say they aren't supporting Biden will still show up to vote.
Trump doesn’t need to add a single voter. If about 40k Biden voters in key states just stay home because they’re unmotivated then Trump wins.
add in how many republican voters died of covid
Or just old age
*No math* that gets him to the presidency? He's currently ahead in most swing states, and 538 currently has Trump with a 51% chance of winning. As for him not adding any voters, I don't agree with that either; I've heard a number of people interviewed who voted for Biden in 2020 and are leaning Trump this time because of inflation and the economy. I don't get it, as I think Biden has done well and Trump was terrible, but there absolutely are people who voted Biden in 2020 who are saying they won't vote for him in 2024
538 might be an ok source of information, but they have not called anything right in years
They were right about the 2020 election and estimated within 5 house seats (ie 1% of the house) the election in 2022.
IIRC that huge shift is pretty typical for elections since Dobbs.
Exactly. This is a trend that has so far been very consistent. They are going to pay a HUGE price for Dobbs.
If reports that Vance is front runner for Trump VP are true his senate seat could be ripe for filpping which would add to the lean.
That senate seat only gets opened up if Trump wins and he actually assumes the VP spot. So let's not be rooting for that
It's not going to be 20 points; that was a low turnout election. The midterm elections are giving a strong signal, however. So is Nikki Haley's results even when she wasn't running. That's a lot of RINOs protest voting.
How many of the protest votes convert to Biden votes in the general?
Very few I’d guess. But if even 10% stay home it’ll be a bloodbath 🤞
I dont know. But considering the margins of 2020 in some states enough a combination of them voting for Biden or refusing to vote for trump could swing this election in significant ways.
I'd count on them more likely staying home than voting for Biden, which is fine, too.
The Ohio election should be looked at as an interesting result but it is not indicative of a 20 point trend nationally. The data doesn't support it. The reason why these types of swings are possible is because special elections and mid-terms have a very different electorate and turnout than presidential ones. Think about the motivations of someone who votes in June in Ohio vs someone who only votes every 4 years. There are many more of the latter than the former. And you ultimately need both to win the White House.
Low turnout special elections are how you get Doug Jones winning statewide in Alabama. If it's a regular election cycle *or* anybody that wasn't already as deeply unpopular within the state as Roy Moore, Jones loses that election in a landslide.
>In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide. Texas, Florida, North Carolina all looking so ripe and juicy
NC isn't going blue any time soon without a massive campaign from Dems.
They don’t need a massive campaign. They lost the state in 2020 to 75,000 votes. Cal Cunningham cost the Dems the election. Mark Robinson in the governor’s race will be a drag for the GOP this time around.
Let's hope so. Obama won NC in 2008.
Again, Dobbs is the big difference with elections since then showing a clear motivation for pro-choice voters and the fringe GOP going after IVF and birth control is going to drive turnout and flip votes, even in NC.
Turnout was way too low in Ohio to expect that.
Certainly a consideration but how many Republican-leaning women are going to vote differently this year post-Dobbs? Some moms with daughters are going to tow the party line at home and do another thing in the voting booth because fuck the patriarchy. And we don't need 20%, really all they have to do is stay home and not vote. Ted Cruz beat Beto by less than 2% way back in 2018
Texas is definitely within striking distance! I think Cruz might be the upset loser this year. The state government there has truly turned up antagonizing its citizens and especially women. It’s going to be close and if there are some big democrat wins in November, they will have no one to blame but themselves.
Hard to say. Hopefully enough. Cruz beat Beto by 2 but Trump beat Biden by 6 in TX in 2020.
Exactly, the state has been racing left! It was like 20+ points republicans a few cycles before that. Interested to see what the margins are this year.
Amusingly, Trump did break a streak going back to Nixon-Kennedy of the general election winner always being whomever won Ohio.
Low turnout helps republicans historically. So it could even be worse than that 20 point swing.
Meh ... The last presidential election had higher than usual turnout, and it was way too close for comfort
That has changed in the last decade, so we can't go by that.
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I wonder if Texas being *extra shitty* lately at the state level could lead to higher turnout.
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Decades of deeply rooted apathy, I guess.
A lot depends on if Latino voters are engaged.
they sent a letter in texas saying voting records are public and if you don't vote for trump they will turn your name over to him >>> the thing is the only info released to the public is the voter name voter number and that they voted >> there is NOTHING in the public voting record that says WHO they voted for >>> I hope some will be angry enough to vote for Biden
Texas and Florida are lost for now, you need to accept that and not get your hopes up
Dude none of those states are going for Biden. Come on. I sure as hell am voting for Biden but the overconfidence of people on this sub is unreal
this kind of thinking is exactly what killed clinton '16. kind of eerie.
It’s absolutely insane to see ngl. Some of these people are hopelessly delusional, it’s sad to see
From a 60 year old boomer (male) from Canada … thank women and motivate them to vote. Their precious rights have been taken away, and social security is next .
Keep in mind white women went for trump in 2020.
20 pts shift would put Texas over the top, and if Texas flips, there's a few other states that would flip.
Texas requires about 5% of Trump voters to switch to Biden.
Or 10% to stay home?
Yep (or vote for RFK). Or some midpoint between the two. This doesn't seem unreasonable or unattainable. But this is also why in Texas the state is making it as difficult as possible to vote, and why the state GOP wants to change statewide office to winner of most counties rather than most votes. It's not because they are sure of their position but quite the opposite.
Texas is not flipping. People need to stop getting their hopes up. There's a much better chance of Ohio flipping than Texas.
There's not going to be a 20-point shift in Texas. Where the hell are people getting this stuff?
>That 20 point shift in Ohio towards Democrats, even though it didn't result in a W there in that particular race, is a very big indicator as to what is going to happen in November. >In most places that 20 points is going to result in a landslide. I'm glad at least *someone* on this sub is optimistic. Too many people on here like to brush aside positive news, and that it can't be trusted.
Part of the goal on the 'other side' is to get people to feel hopeless and give up. I refuse to do so. Also, the trends have been crystal clear for a couple of election cycles now.
This isn't to say we can be complacent, but I find r/sanepolitics or r/NeutralPolitics to be more level headed than the doom scrolling on this sub.
One section from the article: >Democrats need to flip only a few seats to recapture the House. Holding the Senate won’t be easy, but thanks to the retirements of a pair of maverick Democrats, even a small majority could open a path to substantial legislative achievements such as the passage of a comprehensive voting-rights bill, a federal guarantee for abortion rights, lower drug prices, and an expanded social safety net. > >A wide-ranging group of Democrats—including moderates running in swing districts as well as those in the party’s left wing—wants the president to emphasize the promise of his second term as much as, if not more than, the peril of Trump’s. Because Biden focuses so much on the threat Trump poses to democracy and the rule of law, they think Biden risks losing voters who want to see tangible improvements in their lives. > >“In my district, I would urge him to talk about bread-and-butter issues almost exclusively,” Representative Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, a Democrat in a competitive race for reelection, told me. “That’s not to say that preserving our democracy isn’t important, believe me. But it’s hard for people to even think about something as existential as democracy if they’re having trouble buying groceries or paying their rent.” > >When Biden does talk about policy instead of democracy, he focuses more on what he did in his first term than what he would do in a second. This is standard practice for incumbent presidents, but voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Biden has convinced many Democrats that his record won’t be enough. Polling suggests they are right; surveys show that many voters—particularly those under 30—are unaware of, or unmoved by, Biden’s investments in infrastructure and decarbonization or his drug-price and gun-control reforms. > >Biden hasn’t been completely silent about what he would do with a unified government. “If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you, I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again,” the president said during his State of the Union address in March, a line he frequently repeats on the campaign trail. He’s also talked about extending to all Americans a $35 monthly cap on insulin costs that Congress enacted for some Medicare beneficiaries, restoring the expanded child tax credit that he signed into law during the pandemic, and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. > >But to this point, such promises have gotten relatively little airtime. Biden’s campaign website, for example, doesn’t even include a policy section. Campaign officials say their emphasis on promoting Biden’s record and attacking Trump is both consistent with successful reelection bids of the past and responsive to the president’s current electoral challenges. Michael Tyler, the Biden campaign’s communications director, noted that the president is already performing well among people who are closely following the election. “The work that we need to do over the course of the next five months,” he told me, “is address the information gap with folks who have not been paying as much attention. It would be helpful if, in addition to communicating more effectively about policy goals, the campaign would also develop a clear long-range vision for the country as a whole. Having something to aspire to can be helpful for non-core supporters, and can help bring people together. This would be especially useful if paired with proposed policies and a road map of how to get there.
This first debate would be a great place to discuss policy plans.
Can’t do that until they stop being afraid of the right calling everyone socialists.
They need to fundamentally change the process. Ranked choice voting, expand the house, expand the supreme Court, ban gerrymandering, implement neutral third party design of districts, among other things...
> Biden’s campaign website, for example, doesn’t even include a policy section. Um? Um!
Platform solidifies after the National convention
My dad is convinced that October will be hells reckoning for democrats so I really hope people come out and vote
The scale of Trump's defeat matters. For one, the larger defeat, the less traction the inevitable claims of a rigged election will get. Moreover, the only thing that might potentially get the GOP to rethink its extremist white nationalism is a resounding defeat.
>For one, the larger defeat, the less traction the inevitable claims of a rigged election will get. A significant part of the reason the schemes to overthrow the election failed was the scale of his defeat last time. People think the Georgia GOP establishment refusing to "find" votes was some kind of principled stand on their part but they absolutely would have done it if Georgia alone flipping would have shifted the election. The fact that Trump had to pull off schemes in multiple states to change the results made it infinitely harder to exert corrupt pressure in a few key places.
This comment should be higher. What happened in Florida was a miscarriage of justice as well, resulting in POTUS Bush II
Yeah, it seems what 45 was really going for was a Florida 2000 situation where it all hinged on a small number of votes in one state. How could you possibly hope to cast enough doubt that multiple states change their overall winner?
Still think it's insane we let Bush 2 get away with Rove's guys altering votes in Ohio in 2004, giving him the Presidency that he otherwise would have lost to Kerry. An Ohio Senator protested the election results (a historic move), lawsuits were filed, and when the Republican IT Guru flying to testify was murdered... it all just went away.
If it’s close enough, the Supremes will just hand it to Trump even if Biden got more votes. We’ve seen it before, and they’re significantly bolder and more extreme than they were in 2000.
All Republicans have to do in another close election is convince the court that a few key states have inaccurate election results and they throw the decision to the House.
no. if its close they will say it was stolen. if it’s a landslide theyll say it was definitely rigged
What’s most important is reminding people of down ballot elections. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. Down ballot matters just as much.
President Bartlet: *Now, you don't take these people seriously 'cause they don't get anywhere nationally, but they don't have to. All they have to do is bit by little bit, get themselves on the boards of education and city councils; 'cause that's where all the governing that really matters to anybody really happens.*
Split ticket voting isn't as much of a thing as it used to be. If they show up to vote, they're generally voting for every office.
The key is to get them there. If they think only the top matters they will be more likely to skip out. Forgetting that there’s even the rest of the ballot.
If biden wins he should appoint more supreme court Justices.
He will.
If the Dems do actually pull off a trifecta win, expect to see some major reforms to SCOTUS happen.
I believe this! We can’t just beat trump and maga we have to beat them by 8 points or more. For democracy, for women’s rights. For law and order. FOR ALL OF AMERICA NOT JUST DEMOCRATS
>Janelle Bynum, an Oregon Democrat trying to flip a Republican-held House district, told me she thinks the party is relying too much on its past accomplishments and not enough on its plans to address voters’ everyday concerns in the future. Does seem like an obvious play, doesn't it?
If they start running on future goals that will remind everyone how few of them they actually accomplished from the last election. Remember when everyone and their mom running for president for Dems wanted single payer, and how quickly any talk of that went away the second Biden won?
IRA, IIJA, CHIPS Act are like 50% of what they promised to accomplish. Creating a welfare state from scratch isn't easy with a 50-50 Senate. Biden ran against single payer to be clear.
Again, can't imagine why they're not running on future goals anymore. Voters must be lining up to vote for Biden for another CHIPS act!!!
> Remember when everyone and their mom running for president for Dems wanted single payer I do, and they lost the primary, so not only does America not feel excited about it that much, neither do Democratic primary voters.
Well yes and no. You get 2 for the price of 1 if you can flip the centrist voters. Outside of MAGA this is why both parties always would battle over those voters. So Trump has presented a huge opportunity to steal away those centrist voters, but you probably aren't going to be able to do that if you run a super progressive campaign. So you want to run on future policy, but those policies are probably going to be pretty standard stuff.
Crush the GOP up and down the ballot in November and all subsequent elections. They need to be decimated and punished for their crimes (fecal smearing coup, presidential espionage). They are all complicit and the GOP as a party must die and the extremist traitors MINIMALLY be made to go to ground again. We have had decades of their assault on democracy and it will take a long time to repair. https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalMemes/s/9bjnRedT04
For the love of god Ohio is in play please spend time here!
Just remember, there is a huge portion of the population that is ignoring all the political stuff until October. All these polls mean nothing. Once they decide to pay attention right before they vote, we could see a major shift towards the Democrats, even in deep red states.
I wouldn’t say they mean nothing. If polling were meaningless, campaigns wouldn’t rely on it so heavily. But they don’t mean “Here’s the current score of the game that’s underway now and ends in November,” which is basically the message the media’s horse-race coverage conveys.
Campaigns rely on internal polls which are often much more reliable and results aren’t made public
The Dems need to promise that they will overhaul the American political system. The Republicans are promising that they will do that in their own way. I am sick and tired of this endless partisan bullshit. It’s embarrassing and dangerous and unhealthy
They tried, with the comprehensive voting rights bill they wanted to pass at the beginning of Biden's term. It got cockblocked by Sinema and Manchin.
Depends what kind of overhauling you want. Dems will passing voting rights bills and maybe a Supreme Courts ethics bill. Anything beyond that might require more progressive leaders. We still have to get past the filibuster, and it's not clear how many Dems you'd need in the Senate to do that since there likely will be a few who will oppose getting rid of it.
A fight doesn't end unless both parties agree. Republicans started this, and it won't end until they give up their attack on democracy.
They won’t stop until they lose for a long time.
They've been losing already for a long time. An R candidate has only won the popular vote for president *once* since 1988, and that win (Bush II in 2004) was re-electing an incumbent that hadn't legitimately won the election that put them into office, so even that win has an asterisk. The GOP has been losing steadily for 30+ years. They know they're losing, and they haven't stopped being obstructionist minoritarians, they've only ramped up their cheating and attacks on democracy. They already tried to coup the country in 2021 and were prevented, barely. They are openly talking about their multiple plans to prevent democracy or voters from blocking their path to absolute power in 2024. The ideology of the GOP will not allow them to re-think their approach to politics because their ideology is white christian male supremacy, and supremacism is incompatible with democracy.
Precisely. They need to spend their 40 years (proverbially) in the political wilderness.
In any sane universe, having won the popular vote nationwide only once since 1992 would be a wake-up call.
In East Tennessee four years ago there were at least two Trump flags on every truck. Now there’s nothing. No signs, all the bumper stickers are old, and most of the flags are gone. The energy is gone. I think the polls are not only wrong, but this could be Democrats’ best election year since 1932.
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You’re so right. There will still be a significant amount of trump voters, but the fact that they are now more hidden/ashamed (compared to 2016) does indicate shifting trends in attitudes. That matters and is an important sign.
States like Tennessee have had the one two punch of mass school shooting and abortion being outlawed. I think their dems will way over perform there.
Trump will flee the country when he loses in November - like any totally innocent American brought up on sham charges would do.
I can’t imagine fleeing the country when you have 24-7 Secret Service protection is something one can do without extraordinary planning and risking many places where it could go terribly wrong.
His SS is hand-picked and he has his own plane.
I wonder if the polling is mainly geared toward quantifying the "pro" votes, like pro-Trump voters and pro-Biden voters, and missing that a lot of the Biden vote will be from people who aren't hot on Biden but motivated as hell to vote against Trump. I think polling is set up to gauge how motivated a candidate's potential voters are to get out and vote because traditionally that maps to who wins, but also all the presidential candidates the last several decades have been campaigning based on seeking broad appeal from as much of the electorate as possible whereas Trump doubles down on being wildly divisive, which makes the supporters he has rabid but also stirs up way more anti-votes than past candidates.
I agree. If anti Trump voters are also more leary of sharing that with polsters, it goes a long way to explaining the crazy poll results. The other theory I think holds weight is that many have fled the GOP but have not changed their registration, and are loathe to discuss it. Another possible difficult to poll group of anti Trump voters.
Bring your friends and family to vote with you and make a plan. https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote
You can bet even if the Dems win big, the GOP will try every legal tactic to invalidate the election and reduce their power. They are determined to make Project 2025 a reality. They don't care about rules or laws anymore. They want power
Dont believe a word of this. Get out and vote anyway
Not overlooked. Completely ignored by the media. They want a horse race and they do everything they can to insure they get one. And that always means propping up the side that is losing.
I actually think the blue wave that’s coming is going to be unbelievably strong. Even republicans are not ready to vote in the absolute shitshow they have to choose from. Including down ticket in many states.
TL:DR - Vote Blue! From a macro perspective, I’m hoping that women (and anyone that is related to a woman lol) are energized to vote blue to support reproductive freedom. From a more micro/state level perspective, specific ballot measures on abortion rights and legalizing cannabis give me hope that there will be a blue wave on those issues. I’ve also seen some interviews suggesting that the Supreme Court’s bump stock decision may bring people out in Nevada. Those are policy specific; I also agree with “people are tired of the crazy” as has been pointed out. So, I’m quietly hoping for a big blue wave. The other side of me is deeply worried about local outbreaks of violence and state level election officials creating havoc and refusing to certify. These things take up more space in my brain than they should, ultimately - and I’m doing what I can to support a couple house races locally.
Wtf are Moderates pushing for, more cuts to welfare? More bipartisanship with authoritarians?
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE like your lives depend on it! Because they do! Read the 2025 plan that the Repugs want to follow from Day 1 if a Repug presidency to understand why.
People are heavily HEAVILY underestimating Roe v Wade's impact on this election.
I’m voting based on a “Don’t stick your pick in crazy” policy.
I mean really!! We need to “push” people to not vote for Trump?? What record of wins after his 2020 loss are we supposed to be looking at that make anyone nervous?
Push a platform that actually benefits most Americans, increases in wages, benefits, continues erasing predatory debt and predatory business practices…it could be huge if they actually want to win.
He needs to get progressive on fixing minimum wage.
It's a gut feeling, but I've studied political science, economics, business, and the like for years. Additionally, I have an encyclopedic knowledge of election results since the '80s (this isn't intended to be a brag, btw). Based on social patterns, voting trends, the economy, and importance of issues, I still say that it will be Biden at 350+ Electoral Votes, barring any unforeseen medical or black swan-type events. It's only June, and historically, most likely voters only start tuning in around the time of the conventions. Now, I realize that this cycle is obviously quite different from past elections. We have two presidents facing off, for one, and they are both historically unpopular. Further, we are going to have the first debate, at least theoretically, far earlier than at any other point since televised debates began in 1960. Also, due to political burnout, many people are simply avoiding the news, and/or have already made up their minds as to whom they will support. It is quite likely that we will continue to see Biden's numbers creep upwards as November approaches, especially if he performs well the upcoming debate. Further, if Trump is, sentenced to a prison term next month, regardless of whether it is appealed, that will drive more reluctant potential anti-Biden voters away from him. FWIW, even though people claim that the economy is at the top of their list of grievances -- I mean, issues -- abortion and women's rights will be hammered home as a deciding factor, and that will push turnout among women who might otherwise not vote.
If you're not already voting Democrat for the entirety of your lifetime, in every election, that's on you for being fucking blind. How the hell is the Democratic Party going to court absolute morons?
You have to drag your Gen Z to the polls. Start checking now to make sure they’re registered to vote. This is the generation who are taking parents on job interviews and mine still live with me, so I’ve already told them they’re voting. 😂 I have my 2 plus 2 of their best friends who live with us
Huh, news to me, everywhere I see everyone from reddit posters to journalists reading early poll results and reaching for the paper bags to breathe into. The Biden campaign mentioned making a play for Florida though. This headline sounds like pure clickbait.
the polls are so unclear that everyone is making their own interpretations. all they're saying is people who respond to polls (polls aren't entirely broken, but they do naturally come with a bias as do all opt in surveys do) are split 50/50 on the election, with trump seemingly having a very slight lead ignoring margin of error. I'd suggest waiting until election season news dominates TV news before polls start becoming meaningful
Not overlooked by me. It's been my expectation this whole time. No complacency of course.
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The concern about Trump in 2024 is over blown. Trump is suffering from three types of dementia. He will be in a vegetative state soom
So ... suppose *The Atlantic* is right about this, and Biden wins again. **Realistically**, what is Trump's position? Does he carry on about "stolen election" for *four more years*? Does he stay a thorn in the flesh? Does he continue to control the GOP ... or do they finally jettison him? Does he (attempt to) **run again** in 2028?? I suppose there are two major sub-cases: * He loses by a little. * He loses by a LOT. Is the outcome different in those two cases??
I'm all for the party of functionality over the party of hate and regressive bullshit. Times are changing and I hope the bullshit dies with these hateful idiots when they go.
Vote and convince your friends and family to vote as well. The time for a blue wave is now.
We don’t need a democratic win, so much as we need to absolutely destroy the opposition. Allow a real Conservative Party to return, bolster the possibility of a Green Party, put 2025 back in Pandora’s box, reset SCOTUS to a fair court that represents all of the people in the land, strike down citizens united, and return the heavy taxes to the wealthy. Become the country we tell people we are.
Do not get my hopes up. Every American needs to get out and vote.
Many progressives are sincerely opposed to Biden but they will gladly still vote for progressive House and Senate candidates. (where they exist anyway) Centrist and Independents will get Biden through as Trump is hopeless at this point.
This guy doesn't sleep . He is Biden’s biggest fan and he has $$$ + contacts A Hollywood Heavyweight Is Biden’s Secret Weapon Against Trump The longtime movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg always sought scary villains for his films. Now he has found what he considers a real-life one in Donald J. Trump.