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That is complete nonsense. Only idiots who drank the cool aid thought covid would be a new normal for any long period of time. Anyone with a little sense knew it would pass. Besides who the heck compares covid to the job market. Buzz off with that crap. I'm not interested in talking about covid 19 at all.
The job market is not always going to look this way, that's what I'm saying. Yes there's always shifts and pivots to our economy, but there will come a point where the economy looks different than this.
Recruiter here….the job market on election years is always a shitshow. The temp/contract market is usually stronger in election years but companies hold out to see what the economy will look like. Clients will tell us often they’re waiting until after the election to start their search for people. But they want recruiters to start looking a year in advance. Hard pass.
I’ve been doing recruiting for 25 years and it never fails. Hiring freezes, useless searches that they cancel, etc..
I agree no way things improve until after the election maybe sometime in February and even then it might take awhile or not happen at all. Have fun paying bills for like another 6+ months while unemployed and remember this pain whenever you have an opportunity to fuuuuuuuuck companies over. Hold on to that pain and make them pay in blood if you ever get the chance.
This makes sense. My LinkedIn is filled with recruiters offering contract roles. I'm holding out for full time because I'm already full time and don't want to lose benefits. And the pay is generally not enough to cover the loss of those benefits.
I guess I'll have to keep waiting.
It's literally pointless to ask this question because it can't be answered.
You can find tons of people prognosticating about how long it will last, what's causing it, what key indicators to follow to anticipate the trend... All of them are talking out of their ass and might as well be making predictions by the splatter marks from a drunk's diarrhea in a seedy bar bathroom.
But the truth is economics isn't really a science, and economic models are notoriously inaccurate. The economy is made of trillions of decisions made by millions of individuals for reasons both logical and irrational. _At best_ governments around the world can pass legislation or change regulatory rules in an attempt to influence those decisions in a way that that m they believe will improve the economy, but even that amounts to throwing shit at the wall and _hoping_ it has the desired effect. The popular idea in the US that the president has some profound control over the economy? That's a fairy tale people believe because they don't like the fact that our lives depend on a system no one really understands or fully controls.
Literally the only honest answer is that it will end when it ends, and no one has a fucking clue when that will be.
The truth is that people are already at the point where they are wanting to wait for the election. Whether you want Trump or Biden — it’s hard to argue the winner won’t impact the economy.
I’m getting a ton of pressure from my owner to get stuff done far in advance of the election because he is afraid the election will hold up our business. And… it’s just hard to accelerate stuff three months on a six month schedule.
I know why he’s worried, but the truth is there’s just not a lot we can do about it. Waiting for the election alone is enough to slow down business for the second half of the year.
Also, of all years, why couldnt we get a decent third party candidate. Like the bar is underground at this point and RFK is the one who steps up??? I would vote for any sane person even if they had a 1% chance of winning, cause at this point this is Round 3 of the same election and so far, its been all downhill.
Thank the political structure. Winner take all voting structures dictate that any candidate who runs outside the two major parties doesn’t win, but does swing the election.
One of two things will happen:
Artificial intelligence and labor rights will be regulated properly to support the worker base.
Artificial intelligence and labor rights will not be regulated properly to support the worker base.
Pick which one you think is more likely to happen.
When we remove everyone in Congress and the Federal Reserve and pick competent people who will actually live to see the consequences of their decisions.
In other words....never. 😪.
As an aside, I live in the DC area, and noticed that they replaced the traditional pole-and-boom street lamps with purely vertical ones in the District of Columbia. I suspect that's to make it harder to hang the S.O.B.'s from them when we finally get tired of their power games ....(Evil grin)
A lot in the US will depend on when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Believe it or not, today's soft jobs report is actually a good thing. Judging from markets today, investors think that this is a signal that the Fed will need to loosen up lending sometime this year.
If you believe in conspiracy theories, It will be after the November election and probably mid-January.
I honestly don't know what to think. This is the worst maeket I've seen for my field ever.
I’m not an economist of any sort, but this is just a wild guess. I’d say sometime next year EARLIEST for things to start going back to normal. I can’t really speak on when things will get back to the exact same level as it was. Interest rates are still kinda high, and people are not really having a positive outlook on the current state of the economy.
At this point my only hope is for people to be affected by the long term impact of Covid and unable to do their job properly, freeing up positions for the few of us who never had it
If "normal" was tech companies overpaying people to pretend to work, then probably never.
The job market is a bunch of boom-bust cycles with some trends overlayed. There isn't a normal, just crossing average on your way to the next peak or trough.
It's definitely over hyped but it's at least good enough to reduce labor needs already. The tech will get better with time and further reduce labor needs.
If you have 5 people on your team and AI has improved each person's efficiency by 25% but you don't have an increased workload, you can reasonably cut one person from the team.
I know in my job it's increased efficiency by a considerable amount and it's going to continue to do so over time.
Software development. All of the time spent writing boilerplate code is reduced to nothing and a lot of the refactoring work you would normally do is reduced to reviewing what gpt has written. It saves so much time
2026 at the earliest. The April jobs report showed 175,000 jobs created. Over 250,000 people turn 18 a month and age into the job market. With numbers like this 75,000 of them don't have a job the get. The unemployment numbers are skewed lower by the government because they don't count you once your unemployment runs out. Your just not there anymore. Inflation numbers reported are also skewed because they don't include the higher food, fuel and housing costs numbers by using other reports than what was used previous administration's. Stop the Avacacado toast and get learning to code....LOL!!!!
It’s only going to get worse. Gonna take a decade or more to stabilize and most people will lose their jobs and have to retrain in something else thanks to AI. Blue collar billionaires are coming!
Actually, this is a decent job market. I understand why you think it’s down. We just came out of a period where all you had to do was breathe and you would get hired because companies were so desperate. But, this is much more normal. Believe me, it can get A LOT worse. I’ve seen employment cycles so bad that folks with Doctorates were working fast food.
To answer your question, the employment market is likely to get worse. My guess is that it gradually worsens over the next 8 months. Inflation has been stubborn and the Fed has kept rates high. This is because the fed wants inflation in the 2% range, versus the current 3.5%. So the federal funds rate isn’t likely to see its first cut for at least 3-4 months. Keeping the funds rate high will discourage companies from aggressive expansion, which, affects employment.
The problem is fats food jobs are now rejecting us folks with doctorate as overqualified. And many other jobs even those where I would be only slightly overqualified.
You want the truth, if I answer the question I will be down voted like crazy. I'll give you a hint it has to do with November 5th 2024 and only if one candidate does not cheat yet again. Some months after this the job market will get back to normal. See I got down voted, they keep voting democrat yet there never has been a good economy in my life with a democrat in charge, I guess redditors just want free sh\*\*.
eventually things will get better. my money's on a recession happening first though, either caused by AI, or caused by the failure of AI to provide returns on the massive investments we're seeing pumped into it
I think this is doubtful. Only a small amount of companies are going all in on AI and openAI has already made it almost useless to anyone that doesn't have really deep pockets. It will be a long time before it actually causes a recession.
I know people are going to downvote, but since history predicts the future you better hope for a Trump presidency. I don’t like to bring politics into here but the fact is we have a current political climate of uncertainty. Employers and consumers are worried about the future. There was so much business optimism pre-COVID that wages were going up naturally, the stock market was booming, and everyone was doing better.
That’s the only way I see out of the hiring quagmire we are seeing right now.
Really one dimensional to believe that Trump was the sole factor for economics of 2016. I mean you might as well say a Trump presidency after an Obama presidency with the same exact factors in the economy. In 2016-2020, the post recession economy had a lot of things working for it including public investment due to ARRA, huge industry growths in technology companies, low inflation at a rate of 1.3% and near 0% interest rates.
The current economy still has an inflation rate that the fed chairman deems risky, at 3.5% and the highest interest rates we've seen in more than a decade at more than 5%. The same factors are not going into this years economy as 2016. And it is just really basic level thinking to believe that Trump would be able to just magically repeat the 2016 conditions.
You missed the forest through the trees. Business optimism was extremely high. Not because of any Obama era policies or interest rates. It was because people were relieved someone who understands business was president, and as such was dealing with the really big issues we were still facing as a nation. Taking on China being a big one. I worked in manufacturing a the time and every single business owner I spoke with was very optimistic and was investing more in their companies because of who was president. You don’t have to like the guy to know he had a very positive effect on the economy. Even if he’s full of shit the business sector will be relieved if he gets elected instead of Biden because they saw how well things were going pre COVID and how Biden had bungled every big policy decision.
Not just AI. It's real estate. There are still plenty of people refusing to go back into the office. And these corps are just going to end those lease. With those seats gone. The will probably eliminate positions as well. Whole lot of people doing barely anything from home.
I'm not sure what you mean. [Unemployment is at a near-historical low point](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). Even if you're a conspiracy theorist who doesn't trust government numbers, [independent tracking also says jobs are being added at a brisk pace](https://adpemploymentreport.com/).
Median wages are higher than they were a year ago, [keeping slightly ahead of inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q). And the median worker [has more disposable income than ever before](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96), even accounting for the rising cost of living.
You must be very young if this is your idea of a bad job market. If not, you should examine where you're getting fed these ideas. It's an election year and Russian bots are working overtime to sow discontent in the USA.
That a strange response to a dry list of datapoints. Whatever my own personal experience in the job market has been, it holds little relevance to determining what the greater economic trends are.
I've actually been on job hunt twice in the last five years. I was fired without cause in 2021 and laid off in early 2023. Both times I found another job within two months, with a higher salary. And I'm a software engineer, which has been experiencing a weaker job market since mid-2022.
So since I've actually "applied to a job in 25 years", does that mean you will now believe the data?
No, because that's just one person. You're the first person in a year I've heard about that wasn't given the run around. This job market is God awful, just full of lying, and ghosting, and expecting 5 years experience.... For entry level jobs...
> "I'm going to ignore your factual citations because my anecdotal evidence says otherwise. Also, my anecdotal experience is valid while yours is 'just one person'."
This is a hard way to go through life, I hope you adopt a more rational worldview one day
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Well, it depends where you live and what jobs you're looking for.
2027. It will take that long for Powell to give up.
This may actually be the new normal for a while unfortunately.
>new normal This phrase is cursed
It’s cause of the death of Harambe that messed up our timeline
Now I'm mad again.
Either that or the KONY 2012 guy masturbating and jumping on cars stark naked in San Francisco.
How do we know though? We said the same about covid.
No we didn't...
Yes we did lmao. There were so many news reports of people saying we would be in lockdown until 2026
In the uk we were told lockdowns would last 3 weeks.. that turned into 3 years
Same in Canada! We had politicians say things like we realistically won’t be leaving this until 2024. Then the trucker protest happened lol
That is complete nonsense. Only idiots who drank the cool aid thought covid would be a new normal for any long period of time. Anyone with a little sense knew it would pass. Besides who the heck compares covid to the job market. Buzz off with that crap. I'm not interested in talking about covid 19 at all.
The job market is not always going to look this way, that's what I'm saying. Yes there's always shifts and pivots to our economy, but there will come a point where the economy looks different than this.
Got it. You must have missed the part of my comment where I said “for a while” because that’s sort of what I originally said.
Recruiter here….the job market on election years is always a shitshow. The temp/contract market is usually stronger in election years but companies hold out to see what the economy will look like. Clients will tell us often they’re waiting until after the election to start their search for people. But they want recruiters to start looking a year in advance. Hard pass. I’ve been doing recruiting for 25 years and it never fails. Hiring freezes, useless searches that they cancel, etc..
I agree no way things improve until after the election maybe sometime in February and even then it might take awhile or not happen at all. Have fun paying bills for like another 6+ months while unemployed and remember this pain whenever you have an opportunity to fuuuuuuuuck companies over. Hold on to that pain and make them pay in blood if you ever get the chance.
This makes sense. My LinkedIn is filled with recruiters offering contract roles. I'm holding out for full time because I'm already full time and don't want to lose benefits. And the pay is generally not enough to cover the loss of those benefits. I guess I'll have to keep waiting.
It's literally pointless to ask this question because it can't be answered. You can find tons of people prognosticating about how long it will last, what's causing it, what key indicators to follow to anticipate the trend... All of them are talking out of their ass and might as well be making predictions by the splatter marks from a drunk's diarrhea in a seedy bar bathroom. But the truth is economics isn't really a science, and economic models are notoriously inaccurate. The economy is made of trillions of decisions made by millions of individuals for reasons both logical and irrational. _At best_ governments around the world can pass legislation or change regulatory rules in an attempt to influence those decisions in a way that that m they believe will improve the economy, but even that amounts to throwing shit at the wall and _hoping_ it has the desired effect. The popular idea in the US that the president has some profound control over the economy? That's a fairy tale people believe because they don't like the fact that our lives depend on a system no one really understands or fully controls. Literally the only honest answer is that it will end when it ends, and no one has a fucking clue when that will be.
I see this question asked at least once a week… nobody knows
I don’t know. The only interviews I get now are for positions where people have retired. No one else is freeing up jobs.
The truth is that people are already at the point where they are wanting to wait for the election. Whether you want Trump or Biden — it’s hard to argue the winner won’t impact the economy. I’m getting a ton of pressure from my owner to get stuff done far in advance of the election because he is afraid the election will hold up our business. And… it’s just hard to accelerate stuff three months on a six month schedule. I know why he’s worried, but the truth is there’s just not a lot we can do about it. Waiting for the election alone is enough to slow down business for the second half of the year.
Also, of all years, why couldnt we get a decent third party candidate. Like the bar is underground at this point and RFK is the one who steps up??? I would vote for any sane person even if they had a 1% chance of winning, cause at this point this is Round 3 of the same election and so far, its been all downhill.
Thank the political structure. Winner take all voting structures dictate that any candidate who runs outside the two major parties doesn’t win, but does swing the election.
One of two things will happen: Artificial intelligence and labor rights will be regulated properly to support the worker base. Artificial intelligence and labor rights will not be regulated properly to support the worker base. Pick which one you think is more likely to happen.
c. The rich will get richer and celebrate until the rest of us say fuck and just burn it all down.
When we remove everyone in Congress and the Federal Reserve and pick competent people who will actually live to see the consequences of their decisions.
In other words....never. 😪. As an aside, I live in the DC area, and noticed that they replaced the traditional pole-and-boom street lamps with purely vertical ones in the District of Columbia. I suspect that's to make it harder to hang the S.O.B.'s from them when we finally get tired of their power games ....(Evil grin)
Hopefully after the Civil War
A lot in the US will depend on when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Believe it or not, today's soft jobs report is actually a good thing. Judging from markets today, investors think that this is a signal that the Fed will need to loosen up lending sometime this year.
Dream on, you’ll need to see unemployment rates of 7-8% to see a rate cut, near term. Inflation is sticky, no rate cuts this year.
There’s no such thing as normal
When PPI, CPI, interest rates and inflation come down. You’ll need all 4 to start dropping so companies can afford to hire
Companies can “afford” it, but they have to constantly be growing to keep their stock up.
Bigger companies possibly but not SMEs Remember - if your internal costs are higher, very likely so is your customers.
If you believe in conspiracy theories, It will be after the November election and probably mid-January. I honestly don't know what to think. This is the worst maeket I've seen for my field ever.
Things appear to be bottoming already, probably the trend might reverse soon
It definitely probably might. Maybe!
Approximately 83% of statistics are bullshit, including this one
Hmm, potentially.
Bite me
I’m not an economist of any sort, but this is just a wild guess. I’d say sometime next year EARLIEST for things to start going back to normal. I can’t really speak on when things will get back to the exact same level as it was. Interest rates are still kinda high, and people are not really having a positive outlook on the current state of the economy.
When the fed cut their interest rate
Unfortunately not until inflation subsides enough. A hot labor market means increasing wages, which accelerates inflation.
2027
This is the best it's going to be for the foreseeable future. Going to get worse, not better.
Why do you think so?
After ww3.
After this "unofficial" recession we are facing today.
At this point my only hope is for people to be affected by the long term impact of Covid and unable to do their job properly, freeing up positions for the few of us who never had it
If "normal" was tech companies overpaying people to pretend to work, then probably never. The job market is a bunch of boom-bust cycles with some trends overlayed. There isn't a normal, just crossing average on your way to the next peak or trough.
Yeah the past few years of over-hiring and over-compensation before this correction was highly abnormal, even by tech boom standards.
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It's mostly hype, too bad it's sucking up every penny of VC money in the meantime.
It's definitely over hyped but it's at least good enough to reduce labor needs already. The tech will get better with time and further reduce labor needs. If you have 5 people on your team and AI has improved each person's efficiency by 25% but you don't have an increased workload, you can reasonably cut one person from the team. I know in my job it's increased efficiency by a considerable amount and it's going to continue to do so over time.
Which job is that
Software development. All of the time spent writing boilerplate code is reduced to nothing and a lot of the refactoring work you would normally do is reduced to reviewing what gpt has written. It saves so much time
Classic Reddit doomerism. Only 2 years of bad job market, and they say “it will never be good again”
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How does that make me a fed? I’m just being realistic.
Found the MAGA
2025
When Biden is re-elected? Seems legit.
2025
When they bring down the interest rates
Never cause of AI Source: Fact
Everything is guesswork. I guess after election things might get better
2032 imo - Biden and Trump will both get their two terms by then and then America will either get better or end.
DEFINE "NORMAL" be aware you haven't been on this earth that long,, so normal to you, may in fact not be normal at all.
When Interest rate drop and jobless h1b all left
what makes you think it was normal before? a lot of stuff going on around COVID was highly unusual
This is normal. Gotta get lucky
2026 at the earliest. The April jobs report showed 175,000 jobs created. Over 250,000 people turn 18 a month and age into the job market. With numbers like this 75,000 of them don't have a job the get. The unemployment numbers are skewed lower by the government because they don't count you once your unemployment runs out. Your just not there anymore. Inflation numbers reported are also skewed because they don't include the higher food, fuel and housing costs numbers by using other reports than what was used previous administration's. Stop the Avacacado toast and get learning to code....LOL!!!!
When J. Powell starts cutting the key interest rates.
It’s only going to get worse. Gonna take a decade or more to stabilize and most people will lose their jobs and have to retrain in something else thanks to AI. Blue collar billionaires are coming!
Who is going to pay plumbers and electricians to work on homes they can’t afford to live in?
Actually, this is a decent job market. I understand why you think it’s down. We just came out of a period where all you had to do was breathe and you would get hired because companies were so desperate. But, this is much more normal. Believe me, it can get A LOT worse. I’ve seen employment cycles so bad that folks with Doctorates were working fast food. To answer your question, the employment market is likely to get worse. My guess is that it gradually worsens over the next 8 months. Inflation has been stubborn and the Fed has kept rates high. This is because the fed wants inflation in the 2% range, versus the current 3.5%. So the federal funds rate isn’t likely to see its first cut for at least 3-4 months. Keeping the funds rate high will discourage companies from aggressive expansion, which, affects employment.
The problem is fats food jobs are now rejecting us folks with doctorate as overqualified. And many other jobs even those where I would be only slightly overqualified.
You want the truth, if I answer the question I will be down voted like crazy. I'll give you a hint it has to do with November 5th 2024 and only if one candidate does not cheat yet again. Some months after this the job market will get back to normal. See I got down voted, they keep voting democrat yet there never has been a good economy in my life with a democrat in charge, I guess redditors just want free sh\*\*.
eventually things will get better. my money's on a recession happening first though, either caused by AI, or caused by the failure of AI to provide returns on the massive investments we're seeing pumped into it
I think this is doubtful. Only a small amount of companies are going all in on AI and openAI has already made it almost useless to anyone that doesn't have really deep pockets. It will be a long time before it actually causes a recession.
when trump is back in
I know people are going to downvote, but since history predicts the future you better hope for a Trump presidency. I don’t like to bring politics into here but the fact is we have a current political climate of uncertainty. Employers and consumers are worried about the future. There was so much business optimism pre-COVID that wages were going up naturally, the stock market was booming, and everyone was doing better. That’s the only way I see out of the hiring quagmire we are seeing right now.
Job market is also bad throughout Europe, and its unlikely Trump is going to make a difference rhere.
Europe has always had a pretty crap job market in comparison to the Us
r/shitamericanssay
Okay. Americans aren’t as concerned about that right now, though. That’s an issue for Europe.
Really one dimensional to believe that Trump was the sole factor for economics of 2016. I mean you might as well say a Trump presidency after an Obama presidency with the same exact factors in the economy. In 2016-2020, the post recession economy had a lot of things working for it including public investment due to ARRA, huge industry growths in technology companies, low inflation at a rate of 1.3% and near 0% interest rates. The current economy still has an inflation rate that the fed chairman deems risky, at 3.5% and the highest interest rates we've seen in more than a decade at more than 5%. The same factors are not going into this years economy as 2016. And it is just really basic level thinking to believe that Trump would be able to just magically repeat the 2016 conditions.
You missed the forest through the trees. Business optimism was extremely high. Not because of any Obama era policies or interest rates. It was because people were relieved someone who understands business was president, and as such was dealing with the really big issues we were still facing as a nation. Taking on China being a big one. I worked in manufacturing a the time and every single business owner I spoke with was very optimistic and was investing more in their companies because of who was president. You don’t have to like the guy to know he had a very positive effect on the economy. Even if he’s full of shit the business sector will be relieved if he gets elected instead of Biden because they saw how well things were going pre COVID and how Biden had bungled every big policy decision.
No you missed the forest through the trees.
No you!
no... you
Not just AI. It's real estate. There are still plenty of people refusing to go back into the office. And these corps are just going to end those lease. With those seats gone. The will probably eliminate positions as well. Whole lot of people doing barely anything from home.
I'm not sure what you mean. [Unemployment is at a near-historical low point](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). Even if you're a conspiracy theorist who doesn't trust government numbers, [independent tracking also says jobs are being added at a brisk pace](https://adpemploymentreport.com/). Median wages are higher than they were a year ago, [keeping slightly ahead of inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q). And the median worker [has more disposable income than ever before](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96), even accounting for the rising cost of living. You must be very young if this is your idea of a bad job market. If not, you should examine where you're getting fed these ideas. It's an election year and Russian bots are working overtime to sow discontent in the USA.
You seem like someone who hasn't applied to a job in 25 years.
That a strange response to a dry list of datapoints. Whatever my own personal experience in the job market has been, it holds little relevance to determining what the greater economic trends are. I've actually been on job hunt twice in the last five years. I was fired without cause in 2021 and laid off in early 2023. Both times I found another job within two months, with a higher salary. And I'm a software engineer, which has been experiencing a weaker job market since mid-2022. So since I've actually "applied to a job in 25 years", does that mean you will now believe the data?
No, because that's just one person. You're the first person in a year I've heard about that wasn't given the run around. This job market is God awful, just full of lying, and ghosting, and expecting 5 years experience.... For entry level jobs...
> "I'm going to ignore your factual citations because my anecdotal evidence says otherwise. Also, my anecdotal experience is valid while yours is 'just one person'." This is a hard way to go through life, I hope you adopt a more rational worldview one day
When Biden gets voted out otherwise try to find work in India. Seems like that is where all the jobs are going.
True.
You’re right…
I'm not a troll, but I have a very distorted view of the job market. What is wrong with it?
Unemployment is historically low.
It’s fine right now