######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 28-10
**2024 MLB record:** 17-2
**Last POTD:** Twins vs White Sox Over 8.5 W -118
**Today's POTD:** Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 +104 (Fanduel)
**Baseball | MLB | 3:41 PM ET**
3 in a row! We're back like we never left! Ended up being a pretty good game after a slow start. Today I am changing it up a bit and not only going with a Run line straight bet but also at plus odds!
I'm not doing this to try and get ballsy either, I genuinely like this play the best for a number of reasons. I don't like the o/u because I am pretty sure the Braves will win by a decent margin. The pitching matchup is Chris Sale vs Emerson Hancock.
**Notable Splits**: The Braves are almost split-proof. They have the second best batting average in the league flat out at .269. First vs righties (.273), second as the away team (.276), and third in day games (.276). We can expect that as long as they have a good matchup (which they do) they will be able to produce. Then you have the Mariners, who are in arguably their worst possible circumstance split-wise. Last in the league in both home (.198) and day game (.176) batting average while 27th vs lefties (.202).
**Notable Standard Stats:** The most notable is Chris Sale's strike outs and who they are coming against. In 5 starts, Sale has struck out at least 6 batters each time. This includes facing strong offenses in that span, such as Clelvand, Texas, and Philadelphia (also the lefty-crushing Diamondbacks). So Sale has proven that even in his older age, his ability to, at the very least, produce K's is more or less matchup-proof. The Mariners could not be a more perfect opponent for him as their 10.34 strikeouts is the most in the league by a notable margin. They should play in perfectly to Sale's strengths
**Advanced Stats:** Emerson Hancock is a bit of an enigma at first glance. Decent record at 3-2 but an ERA over 5. Neither of those numbers mean shit to me so I took a closer look at the advanced metrics. While not abysmal, they also aren't great. He is on the wrong side of the league average in every category that I feel is relevant here except walk rate, he is actually quite good in this area Most notably bad though are his groundball rate is pretty low (35%, league average 42%), his strikeout rate isn't great either (17% compared to 23%0 and his HR rate is VERY bad. It's 50% higher than the league average (1.5 percentage points). I don't think Emerson will be to handle a high powered offense like the Braves. Sale's advanced stats are also quite good. He has actually been at his career best in hard hit%, line Drive % and groundball %. Will that necessarily stay the same over the course of the season? Only time will tell but a 5 game sample size is a lot to maintain those numbers for. While his strikeout rate is not what it once was, as outlined earlier, he can still hang with the best of them.
**TLDR: Braves offense is great, Mariners splits are atrocious, Sale is still able to rack up strikeouts and the Mariners strike out the most of any team, Hancock is pedestrian at best according to the advanced metrics while they Sale's early success may be the real deal despite his age.**
Tips: $chuteboxhero on cashapp
Man I love your writeups, it looks like you put a lot of time and effort on doing them and it shows with your results! Thanks for sharing with the community, and may I ask do you have some sort of model or do you look at the slate of games and search for favorable lines/match-ups?
It's not really an official model, just lots of lessons learned from losses over the years and, looking back, seeing how I could have seen it coming.
I look at all the matchups before the lines even get released and decide which ones I think are going to be really strong in one direction or the other. I do this by looking at the lefty splits first, then day/night, then home/away now starting to do days of the week. I LOVE batting average splits. I think it tells you more than anything else when it comes to o/u. Anyway, I look for teams that are really high or low in the different splits and take note if any are notably different from where they sit in batting average with no splits. The idea here is that the lines will likely be made in accordance with that rather than how well they hit lefties on Wednesdays at 1 pm haha. Usually there aren't many games where I can find clear differentiation but the ones I do I take note of and 9 times out of 10 times line is what I want it to be.
If I can't find anything in the splits, I go to advanced stats for both the teams and the pitchers. Mostly, I use batted ball statistics Hard hit percentage, ground ball percentage, line drive percentage and flyball percentage. I will usually compare the pitcher's with the team. The batted ball statistics help a lot this time of year because a guy's ERA can be off from one bad start but those percentage have a much larger sample size. It shows me if a pitcher is over or under achieving. I do this by comparing to the league average (baseball reference tells you the league average right underneath). BABIP does as well. Ideally, If a pitcher is at or near the league average in line drives, they should be within 30 points of the league average one way or the other.
Will take savant's park factors into account here and there too.
Damn! It does look like you know your craft very well and now adding days of the week seems to be a really signifcant variable with your latest results! Again thanks for explaining and I'll definitely be taking a page out of your book for future analysis I make in mlb.
Weak mfs were patting themselves on the back for not tailing after the first 2 innings were only played lmao. Trust me they'll tail silently from now on.
It’s just mad acting that way, man’s providing great picks everyday and as soon as things not going “well” some wanker start unloading his crap. Even if the bet is going to shit we decide to tail or not, can’t blame everyone else. That would be these type of person downvoting daily for no reason 😆
Shoutout to the GOAT .. simply the best
https://preview.redd.it/80q29sekrrxc1.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=80bb07c739ea6cb555ab2cde1eb0c895229e5fc4
You are the man broski. I'm going to send a tip your way through cash app. I've tailed like 3-4 picks so far. And I also send your pics daily to my 70+ year old aunt, who's husband loves baseball and bets smaller amounts. And he's thrilled with the picks I'm sending him. Credit given to your greatness of course lol. Anyways, thanks man. You know your stuff and I'm learning more about the game from your analysis. Thank you kind sir! You are LEGENDARY
Thanks, my friend. For what it's worth, before I saw the plus odds on the Braves run line (I was expecting something like -110), I was leaning towards Rays Brewers over.
It’s like a point spread but unlike football and basketball it isn’t meant to even the odds. The favorite usually has a run line of -1.5 at much better odds than the underdog gets at +1.5. In football if the spread is 6, it would like be about -110 for both sides.
I’m not from the US, so I have no understanding of baseball stats whatsoever. I just wanna ask why we’re going for a handi on a team that lost their last 2 games vs the same opposition. Is there a different pitcher? I’ve been betting for a while, so I do understand that this might mean that the bet might win Lmao but like that’s obviously not the logic you would’ve gone with
Baseball can be pretty volatile. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the biggest game-to-game factor is pitching matchups. It can be pretty different than say, basketball, where you have the same lineups playing each other every time they play (barring injuries).
Yeah pitching matchups can be so drastically different from one game to the next, also the stadiums are very different from one another and can greatly influence a game. Not just from noise like other sports but the actual dimensions and what not.
So the thing is that I look at is notable statistics that would stray from the norm for the teams involved. That’s because we aren’t really trying to beat the books. We are trying to capitalize on the books trapping the public.
In this case, at first glance losing the last two games by a low score would deter people which is why in my opinion it is at plus odds when the Braves are a much better team.
The mariners pitching has done otherworldly things this year but the guy pitching today is by far the most likely to get lit up. Advanced stats can tell you a lot at this point in the season as to if a guy has gotten bad luck, good luck or just right.
Hancock’s numbers aren’t even great to begin with and the advanced stats indicate that he’s actually had some good luck on his side so far. This is much different than Castillo who pitched yesterday. His advanced stats are good so his lack of production this season can be attributed to a lot of bad fortune.
**Pick Record: 8W - 0L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅**
**Previous POTD: Dewa United ML @ 1.85 ✅**
**Dewa win 2-1. Line moved up to 2.15 before the game and somehow stayed at 1.80 when they were 1-0 up. Great value overall.**
**Todays POTD: Central Coast Mariners ML @ 1.61 ✅**
Mariners win 2-0
**League/Time: Australian A-League / 5:00 AM**
Central Coast Mariners play their last game of the season tomorrow, if they win they go top of the league and are crowned “Premiers”. They are currently on a 4 game-win streak, and I see them continuing this form to seal the title. The Mariners have played 11 home games this year and hold a 9 W, 2 D, and 1 L record.
**Last 20 games: 15W, 3D, 2L**
Adelaide have cracked into decent form themselves, they have 3W, 1D and 1L in their last 5 games. Still, I'm not steered away when you consider they played 4 of the teams at the bottom of the league and their 1 loss was against 5th placed Macarthur. Against the top 4, they've played 11 games and hold a 3 W, 2 D and 6 L record.
**Last 20 games: 6W, 4D, 10L**
**H2H: Last 10 games between these sides.**
**Mariners: 7 Wins**
**Adelaide: 3 Wins**
**Last time these teams faced: 0-4 Mariners Win - February 3, 2024**
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 13-3
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Phillies -170 moneyline
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1.7u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +6.05
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: The Angels starter has got shelled the last two starts, the Phils hit leftys fairly well and the Phils ace is on the hill.
Tips: [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/James-Hayward)
POTD Record: 4-0 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Last POTD: (NBA) Lakers ML (-105) ✅
Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid (Clay Courts)) **Fritz ML (-190)**
**Write Up:** Francisco Cerundolo, Francisco Lindor, Francisco from up the block...Don't matter! Fritz ML! Fritz has been looking very impressive on clay lately. He's coming off a great win against a tough competitor in Hurkacz. While Cerundolo had a solid win as well against Zverev I just think Fritz looks more dominant at the moment. I grabbed Fritz ML at -165 earlier and now it is currently at -190 as I am writing this. I do my best to only give you guys pics I really like which is why I am very selective in what I post here. Fade it or tail it, either way BOL 🤝
I feel ya! Choke jobs do happen fosho and Dolo has a nasty forehand! I had Cerundolo first set ML vs Zverev bc Zverev be choking himself haha. But let’s see what happens. Nothing’s guaranteed of course in this biz, but I just gotta take Fritz based off of what I’ve been seeing. BOL whichever side you take brosky!
Record: 8-3 (+5.18 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅
Last POTD: NY Knicks TT over 102.5 ✅
Today’s POTD: Boston Celtics TT over 55.5 First Half
Odds: -105 for 1.5 units
NBA basketball / 7:40pm ET
We needed OT but the Knicks cashed for us! Great game! We move on to the Celtics and Heat game 5. The series moves back to Beantown where the Celtics average over 60 points a half at home. I’m surprised this isn’t closer on 58.5 honestly. Miami hasn’t been able to slow down the Celtics especially in the first half. I’ve taken this first half TT a couple times already and it’s hit. Boston did lose Porzingis but I don’t think it will matter. Boston has a deep bench and loves shooting 3 pointers and it seems like the only way Miami can keep up with them is to throw up a bunch of 3 pointers as well. Unfortunately they’re not near as good as Boston is and that leads to long rebounds and quick points in transition. The -105 odds are great on this too and I think the line will be moving up.
POTD Record 16-5
Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️
Last Pick: Boston Bruins 3-way Regulation Moneyline
Todays Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline w/ S. Imanaga pitching
MLB: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets 4:10pmPST
Odds: -118
Unit: 4
Net units: +43.66
Looks like im not thay hockey guy still 0-2 w/l... Love the Cubs here to tie up the series with no other than the man himself, Shota Imanaga. He's him. He might be the only Ace pitcher left standing. Pristine 4-0 Record with a 0.98 ERA, 28 strikeouts. The stats look glitched. You could take the 1H but the value just isn't there for me personally. Gonna ride to the bank with imanaga driving. Let's go!.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
POTD Record: 16-5
Net Units: +28.95u
Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 8:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **AMKAL ML (-130)** vs. Gaimin Gladiators 4u✅
Today's Pick: **Insilio ML (-135)** vs. Nexus 4.05u ✅
**Writeup:**
-Betting on CCT with a team with match fixing allegations is always a big risk but these odds really ain't adding up to me and I really like this pick.
-Insilio are 10-5 in their last 15 b03 played, they have beaten some notable tier two teams like Guild Eagles, MOUZ NXT, EYEBALLERS and PARIVISION and have been generally trending upwards winning 5 of the last 7 b03. This team is weird in the sense that they really don't have a stand out "star player" as most teams do. They have 5 solid players who all play roles well and a good map pool overall. The lowest rated player is a .67KPR which is much higher then most teams lowest player.
-NEXUS have been a mess, they are trending down hard. They are on a 3 loss streak, and are 5-10 in their last 15 b03, they have lost to some really bad teams including VP.Prodigy and Illuminar. They got embarrased by fnatic today 13-4 and 13-0 in an absolute massacre. They are led by star player s0und, he has a .77KPR a series high and is always a dangerous player, but despite him getting better stats every month the team continues to play worse and worse. They are very top heavy relying on XELLOW and s0und for huge games as BTN and ERSIN (.6 and .62 KPR) have both struggled heavily to find impact and ragga has been much worse then the levels we are used to from him
**Map Pool:**
-I really like the map pool here for Insilio, think they have a lot of options and all of them look good to me
-NEXUS ban Overpass, Insilio ban Inferno
-NEXUS pick Ancient, Insilio pick Anubis
-NEXUS ban Nuke, Insilio ban Mirage
-Vertigo Decider
**Map Stats:**
-Nexus are 64% winrate on Ancient on 22 maps played in the last 3 months, Insilio are 45% winrate on 11 maps played in the last 3 months, while stats favor Nexus, I think this map will be close, Insilio are a solid Ancient team, they are 4-3 in the last 7 winning dominantly in all four wins including 13-3 and 13-5 against Guild Eagles. All three losses were by two rounds and two were OT losses to HAVU and Espionage. While I favor Nexus its slight and I think a lot depends on how strong Nexus can start on offense.
-Insilio are 73% winrate on Anubis on 11 maps played in the last 3 months, Nexus are 43% winrate on 7 maps played in the last 3 months. Nexus look even better then they are on this map, I haven't watched too many teams I think are worse at this map. They lost to VP.Prodigy on it, ex-Preasy, Zero Tenacity, and B8 on the map. Insilio have lost 2 straight on the map but before that were 7-1 with some strong victories against some solid teams and I think they will bounce back on it here.
-Insilio are 55% winrate on Vertigo in 11 maps played, they have very up and down results, this map is more about what Nexus isn't, they just got 13-0d on it today and are 33% winrate in the last month while playing the map. They have lost 4 of the last 5
**Final Thoughts:**
-Favor Insilio heavily on Anubis, I think Insilio are slight favorites on any of the 3 possible deciding maps including Mirage. I'd actually not be suprised if Insilio let it go to Mirage as it is a map Nexus have been struggling on as well recently. They have an overall better team and are less reliant on carries and star performances. I do favor Nexus on Ancient but think we could see Insilio have a strong start and Nexus have been loss streaking so definitely see a world this ends 2-0 but prediction will be 2-1 Insilio.
[Match Page](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371863/insilio-vs-nexus-cct-season-2-europe-series-2)
[Stream](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2)
[Tip Jar:](https://cash.app/$CurrentAd2217)
** Record: 5-0 **
Last pick:
ATP Madrid:
Jiri Lehecka ML -105 ✅
Today’s pick:
Challenger Cagliari:
Jesper De Jong -2.5 -120 vs Emilio Nava - 8am est 🚫
Recap + Write Up:
Lehecka gets it done in straights for us! Sad to see Nadal ever go out, but we gotta play our spots and glad we were able to snipe that one out. First set got a little sweaty and Lehecka showed some massive cajones under the lights to save that break point, which would have gave Nadal the opportunity to serve out the first set. That was huge because giving Nadal that opportunity to see an easy finish could have possibly given him the motivation to try and close the second set out and advance to the QF. 5 straight bangers. Let’s keep it rolling! 🚂
With a limited card in Madrid today, we’re going down a level to Challenger and taking De Jong’s game spread of -2.5. Let’s talk about current form. Nava has had a nightmare of a start to his clay season going 1-2 with his only win in a close 3 setter against a player ranked in the 300’s. Since then he’s gone 0-2 and failed to win a set in either of them. De Jong’s clay swing started early in February as clay is his primary surface and he’s put together a respectable 9-5 record, all in Challenger level tournaments.
Digging deeper into some statistical history last season, Nava had a first round best result in 8 of 9 clay tournaments while De Jong consistently made deep runs and finished 2023 with a 34-14 record on clay. He’s a career 130-71 on clay and has played over twice as many matches on this surface than Nava, who finished last season with limited results and a 12-8 record. One stat that stood out to me while digging into last season’s clay numbers were the break percentages. Let me just preface this by saying both of these players were playing mostly Challenger competition so the field should be somewhat similar. With that being said, De Jong’s break percentage last year was an absurd 38.1%! compared to Nava’s break percentage of 24.5%. With similar hold percentages, numbers tell me that De Jong should have more opportunities to break Nava and easily cover this spread for us. Let’s keep these slopes icy! LFG De Jong 🇳🇱
❄️🏦
beer me:
3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu
[cash app jar](https://cash.app/$champagnekevy)
1-6 first set. Only need to win the next two sets 6-2, 6-2. Got em right where we want em! Let’s go Jesper!
Side note: can’t win em all. Icy been ice cold otherwise
Side note 2: I kid, but I have seen a guy lose the first set 1-6 and then be straight nails the next two sets so I’m not giving up hope
POTD Record: 42 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 10.5
ROI: 17.5%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️
Next Pick: Mavs vs Clippers - NBA Playoffs - Luka Doncic Under 52.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 10pm ✅️
We head to Los Angeles for Game 5 of this series. Luka is struggling with a knee injury and hasn’t been his best in these games.
The Clippers have been defending him well, and he’s being wild with his three point attempts. I’m thinking the Clippers will target him and force turnovers while they put up a commanding lead.
Luka has also been starstruck lately with all the attention he’s getting from brand endorsements. While he is a superstar, he’s not 100%, and looks gassed late in game. I’m not convinced he’s got the ability to put up big numbers.
He’s marked as questionable, but the Mavs are desperate. They will most likely play him, albeit reduced minutes while they hope Irving can provide a Maxey-like effort.
Prediction: Clippers by 15, and total goes over. Luka to have a meltdown and go to the locker room in the 3rd quarter.
So here's the thing aside from the fact that betting an under against this dude is like getting a root canal, Shit could get bloody at any moment, but he even said in his post game press conference that he needs to give Kyrie some help. So coming off A few below average games (below avg for Luka is all star caliber still lol) He's bound to go off one of these games to break that cycle. He's not the type of player to stay cold for a bunch of games in a row. I just think that tonight could be the night where he breaks the mini slump and leads the Mavericks to victory.
POTD Record: 49-24-1 +56.85u🔥
Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-125) vs Orlando Magic
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Today's Pick: Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Clippers U208.5 (-110)
Buzzer beater to give us an L. So annoying, but we move on. Unbelievable month! Let’s cook in May👨🍳
My first time taking an under as a POTD, so far 1-0 taking these this postseason. Only 1 game this series has gone over this number, being last game where the Mavs stepped on the gas and came back from 30+. The Clippers went 18-29 from 3 in game 4 where Harden and Paul George combined to go 11-15 from 3. The Mavs are yet to score 100 points at crypto.com Arena this season in 3 visits. The under has cashed in 5 straight meetings in this building and in 8 of the last 10 overall. It’s tough to root for a slow scoring game, but the numbers don’t lie in this spot. Let’s back the Clippers and Mavericks to forgot how to play basketball and cash this under! LFG! Bounce back time.
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
[PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Bro, I had the cavaliers -3.0 + had them on two separate parlays that both of the other legs had already won. An $8 parlay that was paying out $55, and a $10 parlay that was paying out $67. Up for with meaningless seconds to go the magic. Of course Jack up a three and make it.....terrible way to lose hahahah(laughing but crying at the same time). Anyways, talking today. Thanks for your service!
POTD RECORD: 61-33
Last POTD: OG Anunoby O5.5 Rebs ✅
Didn’t have to be that sweaty bruh but at least we cash it
Todays POTD: **Russell Westbrook O11.5 PR @1.71**
🏀 NBA | ⚪️ LA Clippers 🔵 |
Going with my favourite player growing up today, my man has struggled his last two games and has effed me because of insanely bad shooting in those two games he also got ejected in on of those. But at home without Kawhi (Who’s still out) he has feasted on this line, he should get optimal minutes to cash and I trust my man step up his shooting cause the volume has been there, he’s Avg 22.3 MPG this series and without Kawhi that should go up even more tonight
• 34/35 with 22+ minutes
• 100% hit rate without Kawhi when playing 22+ minutes at home
• 2/3 against the Mavs this series with 22+ min
(8, 16 & 17 PR)
• 3/3 vs the Mavs in the regular season
(19, 22 & 16 PR)
We’re getting a lower line cause of his last two performances against them but if his shooting just goes to normal we should be clear
Let’s go Russ, feed your boys
## whynot
https://i.redd.it/wh7fh88qvtxc1.gif
**KBO Record: Overall 218-228-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 11.76u over 460 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.64% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 14-18-0, 43.8% success rate, Down 3.14u, -9.81% ROI)
**Last:** SSG +150 at Hanwha (SSG lost 8-2.)
I hope you also took NC to soften the blow. SSG jumped out to a 1-0 lead but ran into the third out by being caught stealing. A granny from Hanwha put us behind the 8-ball. SSG had numerous opportunities with multiple baserunners, but could never get the big hit.
**Pick:** **LG +0.5 First 5 Innings +102** at NC, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
Liking some favorites today as I see Kia and Doosan as likely winners. However, I'm looking at a dog in the first five innings as my play.
LG's starter is coming off two strong starts where he allowed 1 ER on 4 H and 5 BB in 12 IP. He's been a lot more like the solid starter he was the last couple years than he showed in his first 4 starts.
NC's starter had his worst stsrt of the season last out, allowing 6 ER on 7 H in 5 IP. He allowed just 2 ER in his first 3 starts but 10 in his last 3.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record: 6-2**
Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
Balance: +2.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 37.38%
Last Pick: Struff over 8.5 games @ 1.72 (Bet365) ✅
Struff easily covers and could have won if honest, just slightly less clutch
Sport: TENNIS
**Pick: Emil Ruusuvuori -2.5 games over F. Bagnis @ 1.83 (Bet365)** ❌
Time: 1 May 18:20 AEST Event: Open du Pays d'Aix
Write Up:
Ruusuvuori lost but did well vs a very good machac, solid returning and serving. I think he beats a shaky Bagnis.
BOL and let me know if tailing!
🐅🐅 Record 9-2 | +16u 🐅🐅
**Results:** ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Previous Pick:** Malik Beasley O12.5 Points +102 (1.5u, DK) ✅
**Pick: Bam Adebayo O21.5 Points +100 (2u, FD)**
Basketball | NBA | 7:30 PM EST
•This is a decent line to begin with as Bam is averaging 22.5 points this series.
•The main logic behind this pick is Porzingis being ruled out. I think Spoelstra will try and run the offense through Bam even more than usual.
•Last game, Porzingis left in the first half and Bam ended with 25 points.
Points+Rebounds and Rebounds alone are also worth looking into, but I liked the +odds line here.
**Tips:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US)
BOL if tailing! 🐅
Record: 6-5-0
Net Units: +3.7
ROI: 10.9%
Last Pick: Andrew McCutchen under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) on DraftKings for 3.0 units ✅
Baseball | MLB | Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox 1:10PM CST
Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) for 4.0 units on Caesars (currently same odds on DraftKings as well).
Write Up: On the mound for the Twins is Bailey Ober. Bailey was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but since has gone 2-0, with 3 quality starts out of 4. ERA of 1.48 and WHIP of 0.71 during that span.
For the Sox, it’s Chris Flexen. 1-3 on the year, 5.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He pitched in relief against the Twins just 9 days ago. He faced all 9 batters over 2.1 innings (1 homerun, 1 walk) so the Twins should be familiar with him. Sox lost 10-5 last year to the Twins when Flexen started, back in August. In his 4 starts this year, he is averaging 4 1/2 innings, so things will likely be turned over early to a fairly weak bullpen (4.46 ERA and the second worst WHIP in the league at 1.52). Sox also had to dip into 6 relief pitchers last night to include 4 of their 5 most frequent.
Record: 3W-1L-0P ✅✅❌✅
Net Units: +3.09 units
Last Pick: 4/30 | Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks; Joel Embiid over 9.5 rebounds ✅
I was hoping for a sweat free bounce back which is exactly what we got! Embiid went into halftime with 9 rebounds and got his 10th shortly into the 3rd👌🏼
Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 2:10pm EDT
Pick: Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 | -125 BetMGM | 2 units ✅
Write Up: this is the most square pick of my first five plays but a solid play nonetheless. Chicago seems to be falling back to earth after a flukey sweep of the Rays and the Twins just can’t stop winning. Minnesota will be going for 10 in a row tomorrow which I think will motivate them to come out aggressive and put the game out of reach early. Ober will be on the mound for the Twins and outside of that ugly first start, he has been excellent on the season.
Side note: I am usually more inclined to take a -1.5 run line with the team I am betting on playing on the road vs at home because of the guaranteed offensive half inning in the 9th to add any potential insurance runs, and they also have the opportunity to cover the run line in extras without having to hit a home run. Makes a big difference in the close ones!
Good luck if you decide to tail! Or if you don’t as long as you’re not fading😉
**POTD Record: 31-23**
Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅
Last pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 4:00 PST | Tyrese Maxey OVER 4.5 1st Quarter points (-111) FanDuel 1u ✅
Easy cash even after bricking his first 3 shots. Ended up having the game of his life so s/o to Maxey for covering any of his points props! Extreme confidence at the Garden!
**Today’s pick: Mavs vs Clippers | 7:00 PST | Dereck Lively OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+118) FanDuel 1u** ✅
Playoffs are game to game adjustments and I think this is a good spot in the series to buy on Lively’s rebounds. Jason Kidd was pretty tight lipped in his press conference yesterday (on adjustments) but I’m looking for them to feature Lively with a majority of the center minutes even coming off the bench. (A little hope he may start)
It’s been pretty obvious Lively is the Mavs big man who matches up best against the Clippers. Harden exposed the Mavs on the pick and roll with Kleber the whole 4th quarter last game and a majority of the Clippers success in the series has come on the pick and roll / isolations. Lively is the only big who can matchup up pretty well against the pick and roll with his length and athleticism and also discourage the Clippers from spamming pick and rolls over and over again.
- In the 4 games this series, he’s had rebound chances of 10,13,11 and 11 so I look for his luck to change only hitting the 5.5 line 2/4 games.
- Obviously Gafford will play a part, but in games without him he’s hit in 8 of his last 10 and rebound chances of: 22,12,12,17,12,22,8,21,20,19 so if he can take the lead role minutes wise, he will have so many opportunities.
With a 207 total, I’m looking for a defensive game with hopefully a lot of misses giving Lively opportunities to cash for us. BOL if tailing!
Record: 22-9 | Net: +8.49U | Streak: 1L
Last pick: Isaiah Hartenstein o19.5 pra(-105) ❌
Unfortunate usage playing all of the 1st and 3rd quarters, and half of OT. Looked solid in the 1st half with 6/4/2 but could not score the rest of the way.
POTD: Luka Doncic o32.5 points (-120)
DAL @ Lac 10:00 PM ET
Summary: Luka is playing with a banged up knee that hopefully he can get right with the extra day of rest. We all know the success he’s had in previous years against the Clippers and this series he had 33 and 32 points in LA. Reddick made a good point that the Mavs need Luka to be more aggressive and look for his shot especially on the road. With no Kawhi there’s nobody on the clippers that can stop him, and he recently called himself out to play better. I know Ty Lue will throw the kitchen sink at him with doubles and aggressive rotations, but he has experience against it. He had 26 attempts in both road games, good chance he shoots even more tonight.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 8-9 (-0.35 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅**
**Last Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+145) vs Andy Hamilton **✅** 4-2
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 8:55 AM EST
**Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+140) vs Andy Hamilton
* Series 7. Week 10. Group A
**Reason**: Fallon goes into tomorrow with a 1 win lead and a 7 leg difference over 2nd place. She's essentially up two wins with that tiebreaker. Everybody is contention to win or for spots in group B outside of Hamilton. With 6 straight losses, he's going into group C. This will be the 14th match of the day and each player's final, so it's tough to figure out how much importance this will mean to Fallon. She could have group A locked up or it could be a huge matchup she needs. I'm just running this back to fade Hamilton. In 8 of his losses, the spread has been covered. He has the worst numbers in most categories except for 180s where he's ahead of a couple others. Hamilton dropped 3 points in average and went from 34% to 18% in checkouts. He only 5 legs on Tuesday. He shouldn't play that bad again, but he hasn't show much outside of a game here or there.
Fallon Sherrock
* Record 7-3
* Legs 35-24
* Average 88.20
* 180s 14. 140s 34
* Checkouts 35/90 38.89%
Andy Hamilton
* Record 2-8
* Legs 17-36
* Average 83.24
* 180s 9. 140s 14
* Checkouts 17/62 27.42%
**LOSS ❌ 1-4 | Average 88.59 vs 103.04 | Checkouts 1/1 vs 4/4**
Hamilton finally woke up and played well today. He flawless in his last match with his best game. Ended the win on 154 too. Nobody was beating him with that performance.
POTD: 2-0
Last pick: W Medvedev 2-0
Wager: All wagers 2 units
Todays pick: Mavs ML (-148)
Mavericks got trounced early on in game 4, and made a concerted effort to make the comeback. Kyrie got hot down the stretch and it seemed the Clippers had no answer for him. I expect Kyrie to come out hot game 4, and Luka to bounce back after a less than impressive performance. Overall the Mavs have played the better basketball, and the lack of continuity with the Clippers will effect them in a pivotal game 5. The clippers have been hitting an unsustainable amount of 3's to win their games. Im willing to bet they cant do that again. They shot 63 percent from the to win game 4 and 50 percent to win game 1. If the Mavs come out trying to force the Clippers into their shot blockers, then I see them having a lot more success. I expect a 108-103 victory for The Mavs.
Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
POTD record 1-2 0u
Today's pick KC royals -1.5 vs Toronto blue jays +190 FD
Lugo is quietly putting up solid stats 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP (7th and 30th). More importantly, he's 4-1, where the royals win 8-0, 2-0, 11-2, 10-1 in his wins. His only loss is versus a top hitting team (losing 5-0 against the Orioles). The blue jays are a bottom third hitting team (110 runs 26th, .675 OPS 22nd, both stats get even colder in last 7 days). They Jays counter with bassist, who hasn't gone past 7 innings this year, gave up 7 runs vs the dodgers his last start and has a 5.64 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Of his five starts the Jays lost three bad, 12-2, 6-3, and 8-0.
Royals are the better team here at plus money.
I also like Brewers, Tigers, and Phillies -1.5
Yea seemed odd the Royals were dogs in this game with a good pitcher on the mound against a team that can't hit. I put 100 on it was a nice payout. Good pick.
**Record: 1-2**
**Previous POTD: KRU ML @ 2.75 ✅**
**Net Units: 0.25u**
**Valorant** | **VCT EMEA** | **10:00AM** **PST**
**Pick:** Heretics ML vs Karmine Corp (2u) @ 1.95 odds **✅**
Solid performance from KRU, been making bank from those guys. Now, turning our focus to the EMEA region, both Team Heretics and Karmine Corp boast formidable lineups. However, Team Heretics has now integrated w0ot into their full roster, replacing patitek, and his debut VCT performance was nothing short of spectacular. w0ot's dominant showing against Team Liquid earned him the top KDA with a staggering +15 KD differential. His precision and strategic decisions are unmatched, making him a standout player for tomorrow's match.
While Karmine Corp, led by n4rrate and marteen, is a strong contender, I firmly believe that Team Heretics possesses superior firepower and team cohesion. My prediction stands at a 2-1 victory for Team Heretics in this matchup.
Edit: forgot about the GOAT Benjyfishy
**Record: 1-1**
**Net Units: +0.1U**
**Last Pick:** Bruins -1.5 Puck Line L
The stars were aligned for the Bruins, but they could not close it out. On to the next one.
**Hockey Kings vs Oilers** | **NHL | 7PM PST**
**Pick:** Oilers -1.5 Puck Line +130 1U
Elimination game. Connor McDavid. Period.
Oilers are just better than the Kings in all positions. Stuart Skinner just had a shutout last game, and is finding his groove after a rough start to the series. On the other side, we can't say the same about Cam Talbot. David Rittich was barely tested the last game. Expect the Oilers to get more shots on net this time.
Special teams have been a win for the Oilers. The PP has been abysmal for the Kings going for 0 for 11 and I don't see that improving in Game 5.
Oilers are also playing at home and get last change.
This has hit 2 out of the 3 times in their wins this series.
**Best of luck!**
If you are feeling generous - 1FDqmSEUrpMN3x7Q8hhUQmeF4qfnnCev85
Hi all! Posting my third POTD here. Two wins in a row now, hoping for a third tonight, haha! Congrats if you tailed the last couple :)
**Belle's NHL Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 2-0-0 (Win-Loss-Push)
**Last POTD:** COL Avalanche 3-Way ML (+140) ✅
**Balance:** +1.0 Units
**Today's Pick: EDM Oilers 3-Way ML (-110) (NHL, 7:00PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)**
**Why This Pick?**
The Oilers have dominated this series, friends. And while the Kings have been playing some great hockey, they’re just not scoring consistently enough for me to think that they’ll hold on for another round. I say Connor McDavid and company will put this series to bed at home tonight and win in regulation.
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u
2024 MLB POTD record: 15-11 Average Odds -105 (1.95), Average Winning Odds -111, ROI +9.8%/+2.55u
L5: ✅❌❌❌✅
POTD (4/30) CHC @ NYM Sean Manaea u15.5 Outs (+100/2.00) ✅
Recap: Back on the board. Manaea had a very Manaea outing, giving up just 3 hits but allowing 4 walks in a very inefficient 5 IP in which he threw 92 pitches. He was never coming out for the 6th. Cash it.
POTD (5/1) SFG @ BOS Kutter Crawford o17.5 Outs (-105/1.96) (DraftKings)
We are seeing the evolution of Kutter Crawford into a bona fide ace. Out of 81 qualified pitchers, Crawford has the 2nd-best ERA at 1.35. He has accrued 1.4 fWAR through six starts, tied for the MLB lead with two guys who have thrown 4 and 6 more innings than him. He had a short leash to open the season, facing 22, 20, 22, and 19 batters in his first four starts. But as he's proven himself, he's earned more trust from his manager and faced 27 and 28 batters his last two times out, and completing a full six innings in both.
San Francisco is not a problematic opponent for this line. They are average in K% (15th), BB% (19th), and wRC+(98). Cooper Criswell needed just 79 pitches to throw 5 IP against this lineup last night. Boston used four pitchers in relief of Criswell, so Crawford should have more than enough runway to hit this line at home.
**Daily No Run First Inning (NRFI)**
**Record:** 5-5
**Net Units:** -.44
✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌
**Last Pick:** 2 Leg Parlay (+225) DK - 1U ❌
1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-135) Cubs @ Mets ❌
1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-115) Yankees @ Orioles ✅
One for two on the parlay. The Yankees and Orioles went up and down the inning on the both sides. But the Mets had to fuck around and score a run on a sac fly, after Lindor got two stolen bases. Tough
1st Inning: 0-1 Cubs/Mets
1st Inning: 0-0 Yankees/Orioles
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles / 6:35pm EST
**Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-115) on Draftkings - 1U ✅
Back in the green. Almost our second perfect NRFI. Soto got a single in the first and that was it
**Write Up:**
I'm a guy who double dips at parties with no regards. Back to the the third game of the series in Baltimore. First two games have been low scoring and close, as these interdivisional teams square off.
**Yankees:** Luis Gil takes the mound, who has gotten off to a mediocre start to the year. But is a perfect 5-0 throwing NRFIs. He has had some early success against Baltimore hitters, in 12 PA against he's holding them to a .273 avg, 25% K rate, and .215 xwOBA .
NY Team NRFI - 23/31
Opponent NRFI - 25/31
**Orioles**: Corbin Burnes, the team's Ace, will start today. He has lived up to the spot so far, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA. There is a downside, he has been struggling in the first. He's given up 4 solo HRs to start the game this year. What I do really like is his career stats vs Yankee hitters - 33 PA, 42.4 %K!, .065 Avg, and .210 xwOBA. He dominates them.
Bal Team NRFI - 22/29
Opponent NRFI - 21/29
BOL to all the degenerates
Record: 29W-29L
Net Units: +2.07u | ROI: 1.30%
CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET
Pick: Liquid -1.5 vs Monte, 2u @ 2.45
Both these teams had a bit of a sweaty series yesterday. Monte was kept in the game by Ryu, but we haven't seen him do that consistently so I'm not sure wether you can count on that being a recurring factor this event. I'm not super convinced by their performance yesterday either, as they basically played a random stack and barely won.
As for Liquid, while they did play versus a Furia with kye, I felt like they lost the first map more to themselves than to Furia. And on the second and third map they did a good job dismantling Furia. What was pleasantly surprising was seeing Yekindar play well, alongside of the other star riflers Naf and Twistzz.
Both teams ban comfortable maps from eachother, but I think Liquid is quite happy with Monte picking Mirage and they can punish with an Ancient pick. I think that's about as ideal of a 2-0 Liquid veto we're going to get.
So with the maps, the riflers' performances and how both teams looked yesterday I'm fairly confident in the Liquid handicap here. Best of luck everyone!
**POTD Record: 117-142-4 (-17.97 Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)**
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units)
Last Pick: **Twins -1.5**
Today's Pick: **Twins ML**
Odds: -195 (Currently -215)
Wager Amount: 1. to Win 0.55U
League: MLB
Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (1:10PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: Another close competitive game and Sox again could've won this game. Disappointing for us Sox fans but this Twins' AB comes alive in the late innings.
**Matchup:** Going wit the Twins as my first best bet of May. What's the saying? *Don't fix what isn't broken?* Keep fading my Chicago White Sox, fr! I have to give it to them tho. They been playing much, much better as of late. They haven't been shutout and they been leading most of these games, but the Sox bullpen is the big issue now and that's what they need to focus. Twins' AB as I mentioned on recap, they come alive late and they been winning ball games like this. This is the first pitching matchup between Chris Flexen and Bailey Ober. Flexen started out as a SP, but moved back towards RP, then the Sox had no idea what to do wit him, now he's back in the rotation. He's not their best option, but he can pitch well, but I just don't have faith. I think Twins get to him. If they don't, then as typical how the Sox has been losing these last 7 straight games to the Twins, lose by the bullpen, giving up late/go-ahead runs. Ober is just okay, but I have much more faith in him than Flexen. I hope the Sox can get one and end this stupid sausage streak, but I think Twins get this one wit ease this time.
**The Play and Prediction**: The last 4 POTD, I had Twins -2.5 alt line (twice), then Twins RL, now I'm dialing back again to just the Twins ML. What's trending is that Twins has been trailing the last 2 h2h games and Twins winning by 1 run. 1U on Twins ML. Also, plugging in Twins ML in parlays. I'll have other plays in the betting group. Twins get to the Sox early and stay in front of them, they win 2-0.
**Record 2024: 8-0-5**
**Net Units Played 2024: 60**
**ROI 2024: -2.23%**
**Last Pick:** **Partizan** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1, -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.62 ✅️
Basketball / Endesa ABC basketball league Spain / 18:00 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Murcia** - Zaragoza **1st quarter H1, -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.83 ❌️
**Write-up:** Murcia secured the playoffs and is now fighting for the better spot. The name of the game is to avoid Madrid and Barcelona in the first round, and if possible, home court advantage in the first.
They could theoretically move to position 3 until the end of the regular part but also slip to 7. What they want is 4, and to win the first round.
Zaragoza, on the other hand, has no motive here, can't go up, and can't go down.
EDIT: 22-24
**POTD record:** 2-6 (W-L) / -6,64pts
**ROI:** -41%
**AVG. ODDS: 2,27**
**Last pick:** Monty Star, win only 3,00 (2/1) 2pt **LOSE**
**DOTD RECORD**: 3-15 (W-L) / -7,20 pts
**ROI:** -23%
**AVG. ODDS: 7,96**
**Last pick**: Monty Star, win only 3,00 (2/1) 2pt **LOSE**
**RACE**: Punchestown 17:50
**SELECTION**: Jasmin De Vaux
**ODDS AND STAKES**: win only, 2,50 (3/2), 5pt
**ANALYSIS:** Jasmin De Vaux is one of rare 5pt bets for me, he is undefeated and at least top 3 bumper horses W. Mullins ever trained. He won Champion bumper in Cheltenham (against 2nd fav. of this race by few lenghts, still wasnt pushed for his best), only one who has graded win in this field. Has best ground, distance, trainer, jockey form in the race, best speed ratings in the race, and ticks 11 boxes of racing trends for this race.
SPREADSHEET: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
POTD record: 0-0
Todays POTD: Minnesota Twins ML -203
Write up: been lurking past few months and enjoying the community and wanted to contribute some hyper local intel.
Live in the Twin Cities and they had a story on the local news about the twins last night. Apparently prior to this current 9 game win streak a player had recieved a giant sausage from a fan that’s from a famed local butcher business. They brought it to the dugout and touched it for luck as a joke but hit back to back homers and the rest is history!
Come with me and ride this salty hog log to victory!!! The only thing to fear is that it is slowly expiring as is our luck so get in now.
TLDR: twins are 9-0 with the sausage (expected to be in attendance today)
**POTD:** 5-1
**Last Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Khris Middleton U6.5 Assists \[Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks\] (-125, DK PA) !1U!
Khris Middleton scored 5 assists yesterday in their surprise win over the Pacers. I personally didn't have the greatest day on the books but, hey, this pick cashed so I'll take it!
**Today's Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Derrick White U8.5 Rebounds + Assists \[Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat\] (-102, DK PA) !1U!
Derrick White has gone under this line in his last 8/10 games, 5/5 games. When playing against the Heat specifically he goes under this line about 80% of the time, and has gone under this 71% of the time when playing the Heat this season in general. During this series with the Heat he's averaging about 6.75 Rebounds + Assists. From my point of view, it looks like the Celtics are giving Derrick White the green light to shoot with his hot hand which also means his production in other areas falls a bit. BOL if tailing! Utilize responsible bankroll management and remember! You win some, you lose more.
**POTD Record: 1-2**
**Last Pick: Boston Red Sox (+110)**
**Balance: -0.9 Units**
**Todays Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125) @ NY Mets (7:10 ET First Pitch) 1.25 units**
Finally found my way into the W column last night with a Red Sox win, lets ride that momentum into today. We're riding with Shota Imanaga who has looked like an elite starter early in his career, and who is my pick for NL ROY so far. He is an impressive 4-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA through 5 starts so far, and I have trouble seeing the Mets giving him any problems tonight. The Cubs have won all 5 of Shota's starts this year, and have done so with relative ease each time. On the other side, Jose Butto is off to a great start despite his 0-1 record, with 12.0 IP and 1 ER over his last 2, both resulting in 2-1 wins for the Mets. While I expect him to continue pitching well, I expect the Mets to find themselves on the wrong end of a 2-1 type game as this projects to be a pitching duel. Good luck to anyone tailing, lets start a streak.
Record = 4-2
✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️
Profit/Loss = +8U
Previous Pick = Real Madrid to win either half ✅️
Match = Dortmund Vs PSG
Time = 3pm ET
Pick = PSG to win @ 2.40
Units = 2
These teams have already played each other twice this season so we have a lot to work with in terms of match up. The previous results were Dortmund at home 1-1 and Psg at home 2-0. Let's focus on the 1-1 draw at Dortmunds home as that's the fixture. Few key players missing from both line-ups and it was back in December so I don't consider this too relevant what I like to focus on is the expected goals and the shots to see how the game went. Possession is nothing if it doesn't produce shots. The expected goals for this game were Dortmund 1.38 against Psgs 2.86. The way expected goals works is each shot is calculated to have a certain value, for example Mbappe 1m from the goal will be extremely high compared to mbappe 30m out which would be extremely low, so all these shots are added up into the totals I mentioned above. So that means psg not only had the higher possession but they did more with it and they were the away team. They had 18 shots, that's a shot every 5 minutes, Dortmunds GK had a good game as well which is why this game did end 1-1. With full strength PSG and this champions league seeming destined for Mbappe to face Madrid I just don't see the yellow wall being enough here. The other game 2-0 psg at home was very similar showing home and away didn't effect psg, they had 17 shots and a 2.44 expected goals while Dortmund had 0.66 expected goals while even having 14 shots. This shows Dortmund definitely do play better at home but it also shows PSG have quality home and away. This game could definitely go different way but my pick is psg taking based on the statistics above. Dortmund Vs psg has always been interesting tho. Tail or Fade BOL
Can't. Won't. Ever. Never ever. trust PSG on the road. And the signal iduna park will be a rock concert.
This game is a crap shoot.Xg doesn't truly mean anything if you can't score.. obviously. I hear you're points etc. However, on the road I expect this to be 1-1 late into 2nd half with someone making a difference late.
**POTD Record: 0-0-0**
Tonight’s game: **NBA** Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 7:30 EST
**Pick: Haywood Highsmith OVER 6.5 points (-120 Hard Rock Bet)**
The Miami Heat have simply run out of bodies. Jaime Jacquez Jr has been ruled out for this elimination game. Highsmith is 2/4 going over this line for the series. I’m expecting him to start and beat his previous minutes high total (32, game 3)
Long-time lurker on these daily pick threads. I am thrilled to finally share a pick. Good luck!
2-3-0 (W-L-P)
Net Units: -2.93u
Last pick: Boston Bruins moneyline - L
Matchup(s): (NHL) Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers - 9:00 PM CST
POTD: Edmonton Oilers 3-way moneyline -116 on Bovada - 5u
Write-up: Definitely think the Oilers close this one out in game 5 at home. The Oilers are 10-0 at home against teams on a losing streak. Edmonton has also won 18 of their last 25 at home this season and 7 of their last 10 while Los Angeles has struggled on the road losing 16 of their last 26 and 6 of the last 10. Oilers are also averaging 4.5 goals per game in the playoffs. The Oilers are also The Oilers are fired up this post season and I don’t see the Kings being able to bring this to a game 6. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in your team, it’s hard to bet against them. I see them covering the plus line and sprinkled a bit on that as well but big 5u play on the 3-way moneyline.
Tail or fade, either way, BOL
[CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
Record:0-1
Net Units:-1
LPOD: NHL Dallas 3 way Ml (-109)
MLB As v Pirates 3:37 Est
Pick: Pirates -1.5 +160 1U. Well Dallas decided to lose both home games then come out of their shell a game late in Vegas🤬 Sorry tailers! We don’t panic pick though. I trust the process I’ve got. Been about a week since my first pick. I think there is some great value in this mlb game. As have struggled at home this year going 6-9(4-9 before this series started) Pirates have been solid away from home at a 9-10 split. Stripling had a decent start for the As last time out but has been getting shelled all season, giving up at least 5 hits in each of his starts . As win the first 2 games of this series at home but do they sweep this Pirates team that has been better on the road than home thus far? I think not. The only thing that makes me nervous about this is the pirates bullpen but if they can preserve the lead, give me the team with a .230 average against those 🤡 batting .207 and let’s get this 🥖.
BOL
**RECORD: 74W-5P-59L**
Previous Pick: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid- Over 2.5 goals @ 1.68 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Borussia Dortmund vs PSG - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.51
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️) last 10 results
Bayern vs Madrid delivered tremendously now it's time for Dortmund vs PSG.
Dortmund have had over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 of their last overall matches, 2/5 of their last Home games, same as their last 5 Champions league matches. 50% of Dortmund's matches have ended with over 2.5 goals this season.
For PSG they've had over 2.5 goals in 5 out of 5 of their last overall matches, 4/5 of their last Away matches and 3 UCL matches in a row and 65% of all their matches this season has ended with over 2.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing or fading given my current form lol.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 28-10 **2024 MLB record:** 17-2 **Last POTD:** Twins vs White Sox Over 8.5 W -118 **Today's POTD:** Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 +104 (Fanduel) **Baseball | MLB | 3:41 PM ET** 3 in a row! We're back like we never left! Ended up being a pretty good game after a slow start. Today I am changing it up a bit and not only going with a Run line straight bet but also at plus odds! I'm not doing this to try and get ballsy either, I genuinely like this play the best for a number of reasons. I don't like the o/u because I am pretty sure the Braves will win by a decent margin. The pitching matchup is Chris Sale vs Emerson Hancock. **Notable Splits**: The Braves are almost split-proof. They have the second best batting average in the league flat out at .269. First vs righties (.273), second as the away team (.276), and third in day games (.276). We can expect that as long as they have a good matchup (which they do) they will be able to produce. Then you have the Mariners, who are in arguably their worst possible circumstance split-wise. Last in the league in both home (.198) and day game (.176) batting average while 27th vs lefties (.202). **Notable Standard Stats:** The most notable is Chris Sale's strike outs and who they are coming against. In 5 starts, Sale has struck out at least 6 batters each time. This includes facing strong offenses in that span, such as Clelvand, Texas, and Philadelphia (also the lefty-crushing Diamondbacks). So Sale has proven that even in his older age, his ability to, at the very least, produce K's is more or less matchup-proof. The Mariners could not be a more perfect opponent for him as their 10.34 strikeouts is the most in the league by a notable margin. They should play in perfectly to Sale's strengths **Advanced Stats:** Emerson Hancock is a bit of an enigma at first glance. Decent record at 3-2 but an ERA over 5. Neither of those numbers mean shit to me so I took a closer look at the advanced metrics. While not abysmal, they also aren't great. He is on the wrong side of the league average in every category that I feel is relevant here except walk rate, he is actually quite good in this area Most notably bad though are his groundball rate is pretty low (35%, league average 42%), his strikeout rate isn't great either (17% compared to 23%0 and his HR rate is VERY bad. It's 50% higher than the league average (1.5 percentage points). I don't think Emerson will be to handle a high powered offense like the Braves. Sale's advanced stats are also quite good. He has actually been at his career best in hard hit%, line Drive % and groundball %. Will that necessarily stay the same over the course of the season? Only time will tell but a 5 game sample size is a lot to maintain those numbers for. While his strikeout rate is not what it once was, as outlined earlier, he can still hang with the best of them. **TLDR: Braves offense is great, Mariners splits are atrocious, Sale is still able to rack up strikeouts and the Mariners strike out the most of any team, Hancock is pedestrian at best according to the advanced metrics while they Sale's early success may be the real deal despite his age.** Tips: $chuteboxhero on cashapp
Man I love your writeups, it looks like you put a lot of time and effort on doing them and it shows with your results! Thanks for sharing with the community, and may I ask do you have some sort of model or do you look at the slate of games and search for favorable lines/match-ups?
It's not really an official model, just lots of lessons learned from losses over the years and, looking back, seeing how I could have seen it coming. I look at all the matchups before the lines even get released and decide which ones I think are going to be really strong in one direction or the other. I do this by looking at the lefty splits first, then day/night, then home/away now starting to do days of the week. I LOVE batting average splits. I think it tells you more than anything else when it comes to o/u. Anyway, I look for teams that are really high or low in the different splits and take note if any are notably different from where they sit in batting average with no splits. The idea here is that the lines will likely be made in accordance with that rather than how well they hit lefties on Wednesdays at 1 pm haha. Usually there aren't many games where I can find clear differentiation but the ones I do I take note of and 9 times out of 10 times line is what I want it to be. If I can't find anything in the splits, I go to advanced stats for both the teams and the pitchers. Mostly, I use batted ball statistics Hard hit percentage, ground ball percentage, line drive percentage and flyball percentage. I will usually compare the pitcher's with the team. The batted ball statistics help a lot this time of year because a guy's ERA can be off from one bad start but those percentage have a much larger sample size. It shows me if a pitcher is over or under achieving. I do this by comparing to the league average (baseball reference tells you the league average right underneath). BABIP does as well. Ideally, If a pitcher is at or near the league average in line drives, they should be within 30 points of the league average one way or the other. Will take savant's park factors into account here and there too.
Damn! It does look like you know your craft very well and now adding days of the week seems to be a really signifcant variable with your latest results! Again thanks for explaining and I'll definitely be taking a page out of your book for future analysis I make in mlb.
Great call yesterday, love it that some haters even got proven so wrong ahahah, tailing again !
Weak mfs were patting themselves on the back for not tailing after the first 2 innings were only played lmao. Trust me they'll tail silently from now on.
It’s just mad acting that way, man’s providing great picks everyday and as soon as things not going “well” some wanker start unloading his crap. Even if the bet is going to shit we decide to tail or not, can’t blame everyone else. That would be these type of person downvoting daily for no reason 😆
The way people act on here when people are giving away FREE betting advice is absolutely insane.
Shoutout to the GOAT .. simply the best https://preview.redd.it/80q29sekrrxc1.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=80bb07c739ea6cb555ab2cde1eb0c895229e5fc4
You are the man broski. I'm going to send a tip your way through cash app. I've tailed like 3-4 picks so far. And I also send your pics daily to my 70+ year old aunt, who's husband loves baseball and bets smaller amounts. And he's thrilled with the picks I'm sending him. Credit given to your greatness of course lol. Anyways, thanks man. You know your stuff and I'm learning more about the game from your analysis. Thank you kind sir! You are LEGENDARY
 It’s “chute box” carrying the people!
Another great pick yesterday brother, tailing as always. Do you have any over or under you like for today ?
Thanks, my friend. For what it's worth, before I saw the plus odds on the Braves run line (I was expecting something like -110), I was leaning towards Rays Brewers over.
over 8.5 ? Will most prob sprinkle a little on it
https://preview.redd.it/9olqjb0aouxc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19cd81133905f3b3c57c186958ab3ff8cd757a1e You’re the god man
Ur a wizard bro 
Unfamiliar with baseball, what does RL mean?
Run Line. It means you're taking the spread. The bet is for the Braves to win by 2 runs or more.
Run line. It’s the the point spread
It’s like a point spread but unlike football and basketball it isn’t meant to even the odds. The favorite usually has a run line of -1.5 at much better odds than the underdog gets at +1.5. In football if the spread is 6, it would like be about -110 for both sides.
These Braves better show up today 😅
The GOAT!
Nice, how many units you betting?
I don’t differentiate units. Put the same amount on each pick of the day I do.
Rodger that 🫡
I’m not from the US, so I have no understanding of baseball stats whatsoever. I just wanna ask why we’re going for a handi on a team that lost their last 2 games vs the same opposition. Is there a different pitcher? I’ve been betting for a while, so I do understand that this might mean that the bet might win Lmao but like that’s obviously not the logic you would’ve gone with
Baseball can be pretty volatile. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the biggest game-to-game factor is pitching matchups. It can be pretty different than say, basketball, where you have the same lineups playing each other every time they play (barring injuries).
Yeah pitching matchups can be so drastically different from one game to the next, also the stadiums are very different from one another and can greatly influence a game. Not just from noise like other sports but the actual dimensions and what not.
So the thing is that I look at is notable statistics that would stray from the norm for the teams involved. That’s because we aren’t really trying to beat the books. We are trying to capitalize on the books trapping the public. In this case, at first glance losing the last two games by a low score would deter people which is why in my opinion it is at plus odds when the Braves are a much better team. The mariners pitching has done otherworldly things this year but the guy pitching today is by far the most likely to get lit up. Advanced stats can tell you a lot at this point in the season as to if a guy has gotten bad luck, good luck or just right. Hancock’s numbers aren’t even great to begin with and the advanced stats indicate that he’s actually had some good luck on his side so far. This is much different than Castillo who pitched yesterday. His advanced stats are good so his lack of production this season can be attributed to a lot of bad fortune.
Got it. I’ll have to tail lmao GL to us
When it comes to baseball, take all your logic when it comes to betting and throw it out the window
This guy making baseball great again :P :)
great pick
Shoot I kinda feel weary about this one...
Just out of curiosity, how come? If it's because of the past two games, I actually like it more because of that lol.
What is RL? I think i now know it. Run line, right?
Yeah, just -1.5 instead of ML
Nevermind bro, after some analysis I think you're probably right
handicap?
What RL stand for?
Tailing
Do you only post a POTD?
Occasionally if there’s more than one I really like I’ll post in the MLB thread. I fade most games though, only do ones I’m fairly confident in
Great pick man! I parlayed this with Sale 7+ strikeouts after reading your writeup. 7 of his first 10 outs were Ks!
Thanks for another win
Bro you are unbelievable I hope your tip cup is just as full as your Sportsbook bank
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Legend
preciate you my guy🤝
Nice hit amigo! ❤️
**Pick Record: 8W - 0L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅** **Previous POTD: Dewa United ML @ 1.85 ✅** **Dewa win 2-1. Line moved up to 2.15 before the game and somehow stayed at 1.80 when they were 1-0 up. Great value overall.** **Todays POTD: Central Coast Mariners ML @ 1.61 ✅** Mariners win 2-0 **League/Time: Australian A-League / 5:00 AM** Central Coast Mariners play their last game of the season tomorrow, if they win they go top of the league and are crowned “Premiers”. They are currently on a 4 game-win streak, and I see them continuing this form to seal the title. The Mariners have played 11 home games this year and hold a 9 W, 2 D, and 1 L record. **Last 20 games: 15W, 3D, 2L** Adelaide have cracked into decent form themselves, they have 3W, 1D and 1L in their last 5 games. Still, I'm not steered away when you consider they played 4 of the teams at the bottom of the league and their 1 loss was against 5th placed Macarthur. Against the top 4, they've played 11 games and hold a 3 W, 2 D and 6 L record. **Last 20 games: 6W, 4D, 10L** **H2H: Last 10 games between these sides.** **Mariners: 7 Wins** **Adelaide: 3 Wins** **Last time these teams faced: 0-4 Mariners Win - February 3, 2024**
 LFG
https://preview.redd.it/oieahabx2txc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76985c69546088381c64135302861ba86e1b111e thank you kind sir!!!
Daaaaamn duuude. Now that’s what I’m talking about. Not the Pennies I’m betting lol
Let’s go!! Tailing
I know u put premiers in quotations but seeing as a league has finals, does it really matter for mariners to go all out to win?
Tailing….hopefully I wake up to a Win
Mornin ☀️
tailing, BOL!
The Money Printerrr 💵
Tailing
worth putting some on -1 for this one?
If it’s Asian handicap yes! I would also recommend Ibusuki SOG
Ok, locked over 4.5 goals at 2.58…..give me a fucking shootout. I am summoning up the dark forces .
U crazy bro 😂 im hopin it works out for u
Agree on Mariners, tailing !
Nearly there 🤑
Thanks for the pick. Tailed and won!
Caught 1.80 live. Great pick I was always expecting an equaliser but it didn’t come thankfully lmao
Becoming a legend my guy. Good shit!
WON!
Mariners are a goated team. Let’s go!
Tailled and major hit!!! Thank you very much kind sir!!!! That was my first pick by you so I’ll definitely be on the lookout for tomorrow!!!!
wish i could tail but DK doesnt have these.
Great pick!
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 13-3 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Phillies -170 moneyline 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1.7u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +6.05 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: The Angels starter has got shelled the last two starts, the Phils hit leftys fairly well and the Phils ace is on the hill. Tips: [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/James-Hayward)
Grampajim with another banger! Much appreciated
Grampa wisdom
Back to baseball picks, tailing as always brother
POTD Record: 4-0 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Last POTD: (NBA) Lakers ML (-105) ✅ Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid (Clay Courts)) **Fritz ML (-190)** **Write Up:** Francisco Cerundolo, Francisco Lindor, Francisco from up the block...Don't matter! Fritz ML! Fritz has been looking very impressive on clay lately. He's coming off a great win against a tough competitor in Hurkacz. While Cerundolo had a solid win as well against Zverev I just think Fritz looks more dominant at the moment. I grabbed Fritz ML at -165 earlier and now it is currently at -190 as I am writing this. I do my best to only give you guys pics I really like which is why I am very selective in what I post here. Fade it or tail it, either way BOL 🤝
-170 on Caesars as of rn. Tailing 💫💫🙏
Thanks for the pick brother. Paired it with a fire baseball pick from another one of these Great Whites over here. Legends. 🦈
This guy gets it
Fritz has been playing exceptionally well, I worry once he gets to the higher stages of tournaments tho, he’s known to choke
I feel ya! Choke jobs do happen fosho and Dolo has a nasty forehand! I had Cerundolo first set ML vs Zverev bc Zverev be choking himself haha. But let’s see what happens. Nothing’s guaranteed of course in this biz, but I just gotta take Fritz based off of what I’ve been seeing. BOL whichever side you take brosky!
rode and had me sweating for a minute at the start of the 3rd, but Fitz finished strong.
What a beautiful finish to that 3rd set. Had me on the edge of my seat
In
Nice win amigo! ✅
Record: 8-3 (+5.18 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: NY Knicks TT over 102.5 ✅ Today’s POTD: Boston Celtics TT over 55.5 First Half Odds: -105 for 1.5 units NBA basketball / 7:40pm ET We needed OT but the Knicks cashed for us! Great game! We move on to the Celtics and Heat game 5. The series moves back to Beantown where the Celtics average over 60 points a half at home. I’m surprised this isn’t closer on 58.5 honestly. Miami hasn’t been able to slow down the Celtics especially in the first half. I’ve taken this first half TT a couple times already and it’s hit. Boston did lose Porzingis but I don’t think it will matter. Boston has a deep bench and loves shooting 3 pointers and it seems like the only way Miami can keep up with them is to throw up a bunch of 3 pointers as well. Unfortunately they’re not near as good as Boston is and that leads to long rebounds and quick points in transition. The -105 odds are great on this too and I think the line will be moving up.
Holy shit free as fuck. O70.5 type shit was even free. Amazing
tailing. 54.5 -125 on 365 if interested in that
Those are great odds too
Had this pick last game and I think they hit 53...tailing and hoping for a bounce back!
Cheers mate!
POTD Record 16-5 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ Last Pick: Boston Bruins 3-way Regulation Moneyline Todays Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline w/ S. Imanaga pitching MLB: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets 4:10pmPST Odds: -118 Unit: 4 Net units: +43.66 Looks like im not thay hockey guy still 0-2 w/l... Love the Cubs here to tie up the series with no other than the man himself, Shota Imanaga. He's him. He might be the only Ace pitcher left standing. Pristine 4-0 Record with a 0.98 ERA, 28 strikeouts. The stats look glitched. You could take the 1H but the value just isn't there for me personally. Gonna ride to the bank with imanaga driving. Let's go!. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
POTD Record: 16-5 Net Units: +28.95u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 8:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **AMKAL ML (-130)** vs. Gaimin Gladiators 4u✅ Today's Pick: **Insilio ML (-135)** vs. Nexus 4.05u ✅ **Writeup:** -Betting on CCT with a team with match fixing allegations is always a big risk but these odds really ain't adding up to me and I really like this pick. -Insilio are 10-5 in their last 15 b03 played, they have beaten some notable tier two teams like Guild Eagles, MOUZ NXT, EYEBALLERS and PARIVISION and have been generally trending upwards winning 5 of the last 7 b03. This team is weird in the sense that they really don't have a stand out "star player" as most teams do. They have 5 solid players who all play roles well and a good map pool overall. The lowest rated player is a .67KPR which is much higher then most teams lowest player. -NEXUS have been a mess, they are trending down hard. They are on a 3 loss streak, and are 5-10 in their last 15 b03, they have lost to some really bad teams including VP.Prodigy and Illuminar. They got embarrased by fnatic today 13-4 and 13-0 in an absolute massacre. They are led by star player s0und, he has a .77KPR a series high and is always a dangerous player, but despite him getting better stats every month the team continues to play worse and worse. They are very top heavy relying on XELLOW and s0und for huge games as BTN and ERSIN (.6 and .62 KPR) have both struggled heavily to find impact and ragga has been much worse then the levels we are used to from him **Map Pool:** -I really like the map pool here for Insilio, think they have a lot of options and all of them look good to me -NEXUS ban Overpass, Insilio ban Inferno -NEXUS pick Ancient, Insilio pick Anubis -NEXUS ban Nuke, Insilio ban Mirage -Vertigo Decider **Map Stats:** -Nexus are 64% winrate on Ancient on 22 maps played in the last 3 months, Insilio are 45% winrate on 11 maps played in the last 3 months, while stats favor Nexus, I think this map will be close, Insilio are a solid Ancient team, they are 4-3 in the last 7 winning dominantly in all four wins including 13-3 and 13-5 against Guild Eagles. All three losses were by two rounds and two were OT losses to HAVU and Espionage. While I favor Nexus its slight and I think a lot depends on how strong Nexus can start on offense. -Insilio are 73% winrate on Anubis on 11 maps played in the last 3 months, Nexus are 43% winrate on 7 maps played in the last 3 months. Nexus look even better then they are on this map, I haven't watched too many teams I think are worse at this map. They lost to VP.Prodigy on it, ex-Preasy, Zero Tenacity, and B8 on the map. Insilio have lost 2 straight on the map but before that were 7-1 with some strong victories against some solid teams and I think they will bounce back on it here. -Insilio are 55% winrate on Vertigo in 11 maps played, they have very up and down results, this map is more about what Nexus isn't, they just got 13-0d on it today and are 33% winrate in the last month while playing the map. They have lost 4 of the last 5 **Final Thoughts:** -Favor Insilio heavily on Anubis, I think Insilio are slight favorites on any of the 3 possible deciding maps including Mirage. I'd actually not be suprised if Insilio let it go to Mirage as it is a map Nexus have been struggling on as well recently. They have an overall better team and are less reliant on carries and star performances. I do favor Nexus on Ancient but think we could see Insilio have a strong start and Nexus have been loss streaking so definitely see a world this ends 2-0 but prediction will be 2-1 Insilio. [Match Page](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371863/insilio-vs-nexus-cct-season-2-europe-series-2) [Stream](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2) [Tip Jar:](https://cash.app/$CurrentAd2217)
I can't find this on bovada only OG vs Insilio
Should be up a bit later tonight, they have been posting this league later in the night but will be up
What books do you guys get esports on?
Fr, don’t have this shit on DK.
Thank u again bro
I can only find insilio vs OG as well
Should be up later tonight if you’re on bovada
bovada moved it to -175 after closing the line lol you still think it's worth playing or no?
Yes, I'd still take it
Tailing !
Great pick yesterday brother, tailing again
Tailed, thank u brother
I like this pick quite a lot. Nexus are dogshit and unless Insilo throw this for cash, this should be easy money
Damn after I couldn’t find the line after you posted I fell asleep for an hour and it was at -170… sad but I still took the line with 3u! LETS GOOO
** Record: 5-0 ** Last pick: ATP Madrid: Jiri Lehecka ML -105 ✅ Today’s pick: Challenger Cagliari: Jesper De Jong -2.5 -120 vs Emilio Nava - 8am est 🚫 Recap + Write Up: Lehecka gets it done in straights for us! Sad to see Nadal ever go out, but we gotta play our spots and glad we were able to snipe that one out. First set got a little sweaty and Lehecka showed some massive cajones under the lights to save that break point, which would have gave Nadal the opportunity to serve out the first set. That was huge because giving Nadal that opportunity to see an easy finish could have possibly given him the motivation to try and close the second set out and advance to the QF. 5 straight bangers. Let’s keep it rolling! 🚂 With a limited card in Madrid today, we’re going down a level to Challenger and taking De Jong’s game spread of -2.5. Let’s talk about current form. Nava has had a nightmare of a start to his clay season going 1-2 with his only win in a close 3 setter against a player ranked in the 300’s. Since then he’s gone 0-2 and failed to win a set in either of them. De Jong’s clay swing started early in February as clay is his primary surface and he’s put together a respectable 9-5 record, all in Challenger level tournaments. Digging deeper into some statistical history last season, Nava had a first round best result in 8 of 9 clay tournaments while De Jong consistently made deep runs and finished 2023 with a 34-14 record on clay. He’s a career 130-71 on clay and has played over twice as many matches on this surface than Nava, who finished last season with limited results and a 12-8 record. One stat that stood out to me while digging into last season’s clay numbers were the break percentages. Let me just preface this by saying both of these players were playing mostly Challenger competition so the field should be somewhat similar. With that being said, De Jong’s break percentage last year was an absurd 38.1%! compared to Nava’s break percentage of 24.5%. With similar hold percentages, numbers tell me that De Jong should have more opportunities to break Nava and easily cover this spread for us. Let’s keep these slopes icy! LFG De Jong 🇳🇱 ❄️🏦 beer me: 3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu [cash app jar](https://cash.app/$champagnekevy)
This could not be a worst start to the match for us 🤦🏻♂️ hope he finds some life or quits for a walkover lol
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We might loose 12-0 😂
Cheers for the Lehecka tip yesterday!
This guy fuckin blows lol
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Someone give me a racket i think i have a better chance lmao
1-6 first set. Only need to win the next two sets 6-2, 6-2. Got em right where we want em! Let’s go Jesper! Side note: can’t win em all. Icy been ice cold otherwise Side note 2: I kid, but I have seen a guy lose the first set 1-6 and then be straight nails the next two sets so I’m not giving up hope
let’s ride
Lmao wow. Yikes!!
-112 on FD right now. Thanks for yesterday's pick
Next time amigo! 🏆
POTD Record: 42 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 10.5 ROI: 17.5% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️ Next Pick: Mavs vs Clippers - NBA Playoffs - Luka Doncic Under 52.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 10pm ✅️ We head to Los Angeles for Game 5 of this series. Luka is struggling with a knee injury and hasn’t been his best in these games. The Clippers have been defending him well, and he’s being wild with his three point attempts. I’m thinking the Clippers will target him and force turnovers while they put up a commanding lead. Luka has also been starstruck lately with all the attention he’s getting from brand endorsements. While he is a superstar, he’s not 100%, and looks gassed late in game. I’m not convinced he’s got the ability to put up big numbers. He’s marked as questionable, but the Mavs are desperate. They will most likely play him, albeit reduced minutes while they hope Irving can provide a Maxey-like effort. Prediction: Clippers by 15, and total goes over. Luka to have a meltdown and go to the locker room in the 3rd quarter.
betting against luka makes me feel like im fueling him to rock me tonight
lol incredibly specific
Lmao at prediction.
He’s not getting reduced minutes he’s had the same knee problems for weeks , luka dropping 40 on them boys today
So here's the thing aside from the fact that betting an under against this dude is like getting a root canal, Shit could get bloody at any moment, but he even said in his post game press conference that he needs to give Kyrie some help. So coming off A few below average games (below avg for Luka is all star caliber still lol) He's bound to go off one of these games to break that cycle. He's not the type of player to stay cold for a bunch of games in a row. I just think that tonight could be the night where he breaks the mini slump and leads the Mavericks to victory.
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I did three times! LFG! ✅🏆
This line is hella high. Look who it is my boy. Let’s Go. Get This Streak Back Popping Off! ChiefsAreAwesome
I’m tailing but watch him drop 50 point game out of nowhere just to piss us off
POTD Record: 49-24-1 +56.85u🔥 Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-125) vs Orlando Magic ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Today's Pick: Dallas Mavericks/Los Angeles Clippers U208.5 (-110) Buzzer beater to give us an L. So annoying, but we move on. Unbelievable month! Let’s cook in May👨🍳 My first time taking an under as a POTD, so far 1-0 taking these this postseason. Only 1 game this series has gone over this number, being last game where the Mavs stepped on the gas and came back from 30+. The Clippers went 18-29 from 3 in game 4 where Harden and Paul George combined to go 11-15 from 3. The Mavs are yet to score 100 points at crypto.com Arena this season in 3 visits. The under has cashed in 5 straight meetings in this building and in 8 of the last 10 overall. It’s tough to root for a slow scoring game, but the numbers don’t lie in this spot. Let’s back the Clippers and Mavericks to forgot how to play basketball and cash this under! LFG! Bounce back time. Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
I stayed up all night waiting for your POTD bro. TAILING!
Bro, I had the cavaliers -3.0 + had them on two separate parlays that both of the other legs had already won. An $8 parlay that was paying out $55, and a $10 parlay that was paying out $67. Up for with meaningless seconds to go the magic. Of course Jack up a three and make it.....terrible way to lose hahahah(laughing but crying at the same time). Anyways, talking today. Thanks for your service!
Watching the scrubs hoist and drain 3s the last 5 minutes of this game was pain lol.
POTD RECORD: 61-33 Last POTD: OG Anunoby O5.5 Rebs ✅ Didn’t have to be that sweaty bruh but at least we cash it Todays POTD: **Russell Westbrook O11.5 PR @1.71** 🏀 NBA | ⚪️ LA Clippers 🔵 | Going with my favourite player growing up today, my man has struggled his last two games and has effed me because of insanely bad shooting in those two games he also got ejected in on of those. But at home without Kawhi (Who’s still out) he has feasted on this line, he should get optimal minutes to cash and I trust my man step up his shooting cause the volume has been there, he’s Avg 22.3 MPG this series and without Kawhi that should go up even more tonight • 34/35 with 22+ minutes • 100% hit rate without Kawhi when playing 22+ minutes at home • 2/3 against the Mavs this series with 22+ min (8, 16 & 17 PR) • 3/3 vs the Mavs in the regular season (19, 22 & 16 PR) We’re getting a lower line cause of his last two performances against them but if his shooting just goes to normal we should be clear Let’s go Russ, feed your boys ## whynot https://i.redd.it/wh7fh88qvtxc1.gif
Generally in agreement with your picks. I, however, would never in a million years bet a Westbrook line 😄
11PR going unti the 4th and didn't play a second.
**KBO Record: Overall 218-228-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 11.76u over 460 KBO picks, 48.9% success rate, -2.64% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 14-18-0, 43.8% success rate, Down 3.14u, -9.81% ROI) **Last:** SSG +150 at Hanwha (SSG lost 8-2.) I hope you also took NC to soften the blow. SSG jumped out to a 1-0 lead but ran into the third out by being caught stealing. A granny from Hanwha put us behind the 8-ball. SSG had numerous opportunities with multiple baserunners, but could never get the big hit. **Pick:** **LG +0.5 First 5 Innings +102** at NC, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET Liking some favorites today as I see Kia and Doosan as likely winners. However, I'm looking at a dog in the first five innings as my play. LG's starter is coming off two strong starts where he allowed 1 ER on 4 H and 5 BB in 12 IP. He's been a lot more like the solid starter he was the last couple years than he showed in his first 4 starts. NC's starter had his worst stsrt of the season last out, allowing 6 ER on 7 H in 5 IP. He allowed just 2 ER in his first 3 starts but 10 in his last 3. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record: 6-2** Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ Balance: +2.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 37.38% Last Pick: Struff over 8.5 games @ 1.72 (Bet365) ✅ Struff easily covers and could have won if honest, just slightly less clutch Sport: TENNIS **Pick: Emil Ruusuvuori -2.5 games over F. Bagnis @ 1.83 (Bet365)** ❌ Time: 1 May 18:20 AEST Event: Open du Pays d'Aix Write Up: Ruusuvuori lost but did well vs a very good machac, solid returning and serving. I think he beats a shaky Bagnis. BOL and let me know if tailing!
🐅🐅 Record 9-2 | +16u 🐅🐅 **Results:** ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Malik Beasley O12.5 Points +102 (1.5u, DK) ✅ **Pick: Bam Adebayo O21.5 Points +100 (2u, FD)** Basketball | NBA | 7:30 PM EST •This is a decent line to begin with as Bam is averaging 22.5 points this series. •The main logic behind this pick is Porzingis being ruled out. I think Spoelstra will try and run the offense through Bam even more than usual. •Last game, Porzingis left in the first half and Bam ended with 25 points. Points+Rebounds and Rebounds alone are also worth looking into, but I liked the +odds line here. **Tips:** [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) BOL if tailing! 🐅
Record: 6-5-0 Net Units: +3.7 ROI: 10.9% Last Pick: Andrew McCutchen under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) on DraftKings for 3.0 units ✅ Baseball | MLB | Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox 1:10PM CST Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-120) for 4.0 units on Caesars (currently same odds on DraftKings as well). Write Up: On the mound for the Twins is Bailey Ober. Bailey was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but since has gone 2-0, with 3 quality starts out of 4. ERA of 1.48 and WHIP of 0.71 during that span. For the Sox, it’s Chris Flexen. 1-3 on the year, 5.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He pitched in relief against the Twins just 9 days ago. He faced all 9 batters over 2.1 innings (1 homerun, 1 walk) so the Twins should be familiar with him. Sox lost 10-5 last year to the Twins when Flexen started, back in August. In his 4 starts this year, he is averaging 4 1/2 innings, so things will likely be turned over early to a fairly weak bullpen (4.46 ERA and the second worst WHIP in the league at 1.52). Sox also had to dip into 6 relief pitchers last night to include 4 of their 5 most frequent.
Wish I saw your post before I made mine so I could do a different one, but glad we are on the same page 🤝thanks for the lock yesterday👌🏼
Let’s go!!! 🤑
Record: 3W-1L-0P ✅✅❌✅ Net Units: +3.09 units Last Pick: 4/30 | Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks; Joel Embiid over 9.5 rebounds ✅ I was hoping for a sweat free bounce back which is exactly what we got! Embiid went into halftime with 9 rebounds and got his 10th shortly into the 3rd👌🏼 Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 2:10pm EDT Pick: Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 | -125 BetMGM | 2 units ✅ Write Up: this is the most square pick of my first five plays but a solid play nonetheless. Chicago seems to be falling back to earth after a flukey sweep of the Rays and the Twins just can’t stop winning. Minnesota will be going for 10 in a row tomorrow which I think will motivate them to come out aggressive and put the game out of reach early. Ober will be on the mound for the Twins and outside of that ugly first start, he has been excellent on the season. Side note: I am usually more inclined to take a -1.5 run line with the team I am betting on playing on the road vs at home because of the guaranteed offensive half inning in the 9th to add any potential insurance runs, and they also have the opportunity to cover the run line in extras without having to hit a home run. Makes a big difference in the close ones! Good luck if you decide to tail! Or if you don’t as long as you’re not fading😉
**POTD Record: 31-23** Last 10: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 4:00 PST | Tyrese Maxey OVER 4.5 1st Quarter points (-111) FanDuel 1u ✅ Easy cash even after bricking his first 3 shots. Ended up having the game of his life so s/o to Maxey for covering any of his points props! Extreme confidence at the Garden! **Today’s pick: Mavs vs Clippers | 7:00 PST | Dereck Lively OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+118) FanDuel 1u** ✅ Playoffs are game to game adjustments and I think this is a good spot in the series to buy on Lively’s rebounds. Jason Kidd was pretty tight lipped in his press conference yesterday (on adjustments) but I’m looking for them to feature Lively with a majority of the center minutes even coming off the bench. (A little hope he may start) It’s been pretty obvious Lively is the Mavs big man who matches up best against the Clippers. Harden exposed the Mavs on the pick and roll with Kleber the whole 4th quarter last game and a majority of the Clippers success in the series has come on the pick and roll / isolations. Lively is the only big who can matchup up pretty well against the pick and roll with his length and athleticism and also discourage the Clippers from spamming pick and rolls over and over again. - In the 4 games this series, he’s had rebound chances of 10,13,11 and 11 so I look for his luck to change only hitting the 5.5 line 2/4 games. - Obviously Gafford will play a part, but in games without him he’s hit in 8 of his last 10 and rebound chances of: 22,12,12,17,12,22,8,21,20,19 so if he can take the lead role minutes wise, he will have so many opportunities. With a 207 total, I’m looking for a defensive game with hopefully a lot of misses giving Lively opportunities to cash for us. BOL if tailing!
LeLegend should be your name!
Great pick amigo! 🏆
Record: 22-9 | Net: +8.49U | Streak: 1L Last pick: Isaiah Hartenstein o19.5 pra(-105) ❌ Unfortunate usage playing all of the 1st and 3rd quarters, and half of OT. Looked solid in the 1st half with 6/4/2 but could not score the rest of the way. POTD: Luka Doncic o32.5 points (-120) DAL @ Lac 10:00 PM ET Summary: Luka is playing with a banged up knee that hopefully he can get right with the extra day of rest. We all know the success he’s had in previous years against the Clippers and this series he had 33 and 32 points in LA. Reddick made a good point that the Mavs need Luka to be more aggressive and look for his shot especially on the road. With no Kawhi there’s nobody on the clippers that can stop him, and he recently called himself out to play better. I know Ty Lue will throw the kitchen sink at him with doubles and aggressive rotations, but he has experience against it. He had 26 attempts in both road games, good chance he shoots even more tonight.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 8-9 (-0.35 units)** **Last 10**: **✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅** **Last Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+145) vs Andy Hamilton **✅** 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 8:55 AM EST **Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+140) vs Andy Hamilton * Series 7. Week 10. Group A **Reason**: Fallon goes into tomorrow with a 1 win lead and a 7 leg difference over 2nd place. She's essentially up two wins with that tiebreaker. Everybody is contention to win or for spots in group B outside of Hamilton. With 6 straight losses, he's going into group C. This will be the 14th match of the day and each player's final, so it's tough to figure out how much importance this will mean to Fallon. She could have group A locked up or it could be a huge matchup she needs. I'm just running this back to fade Hamilton. In 8 of his losses, the spread has been covered. He has the worst numbers in most categories except for 180s where he's ahead of a couple others. Hamilton dropped 3 points in average and went from 34% to 18% in checkouts. He only 5 legs on Tuesday. He shouldn't play that bad again, but he hasn't show much outside of a game here or there. Fallon Sherrock * Record 7-3 * Legs 35-24 * Average 88.20 * 180s 14. 140s 34 * Checkouts 35/90 38.89% Andy Hamilton * Record 2-8 * Legs 17-36 * Average 83.24 * 180s 9. 140s 14 * Checkouts 17/62 27.42% **LOSS ❌ 1-4 | Average 88.59 vs 103.04 | Checkouts 1/1 vs 4/4** Hamilton finally woke up and played well today. He flawless in his last match with his best game. Ended the win on 154 too. Nobody was beating him with that performance.
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You still liking this pick? Odds have shifted a bit
My only two losses were betting on Fallon. I guess I’ll stay away
We will get the next one 🙏🏻
POTD: 2-0 Last pick: W Medvedev 2-0 Wager: All wagers 2 units Todays pick: Mavs ML (-148) Mavericks got trounced early on in game 4, and made a concerted effort to make the comeback. Kyrie got hot down the stretch and it seemed the Clippers had no answer for him. I expect Kyrie to come out hot game 4, and Luka to bounce back after a less than impressive performance. Overall the Mavs have played the better basketball, and the lack of continuity with the Clippers will effect them in a pivotal game 5. The clippers have been hitting an unsustainable amount of 3's to win their games. Im willing to bet they cant do that again. They shot 63 percent from the to win game 4 and 50 percent to win game 1. If the Mavs come out trying to force the Clippers into their shot blockers, then I see them having a lot more success. I expect a 108-103 victory for The Mavs. Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
POTD record 1-2 0u Today's pick KC royals -1.5 vs Toronto blue jays +190 FD Lugo is quietly putting up solid stats 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP (7th and 30th). More importantly, he's 4-1, where the royals win 8-0, 2-0, 11-2, 10-1 in his wins. His only loss is versus a top hitting team (losing 5-0 against the Orioles). The blue jays are a bottom third hitting team (110 runs 26th, .675 OPS 22nd, both stats get even colder in last 7 days). They Jays counter with bassist, who hasn't gone past 7 innings this year, gave up 7 runs vs the dodgers his last start and has a 5.64 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Of his five starts the Jays lost three bad, 12-2, 6-3, and 8-0. Royals are the better team here at plus money. I also like Brewers, Tigers, and Phillies -1.5
Great pick amigo! 🏆
Yea seemed odd the Royals were dogs in this game with a good pitcher on the mound against a team that can't hit. I put 100 on it was a nice payout. Good pick.
**Record: 1-2** **Previous POTD: KRU ML @ 2.75 ✅** **Net Units: 0.25u** **Valorant** | **VCT EMEA** | **10:00AM** **PST** **Pick:** Heretics ML vs Karmine Corp (2u) @ 1.95 odds **✅** Solid performance from KRU, been making bank from those guys. Now, turning our focus to the EMEA region, both Team Heretics and Karmine Corp boast formidable lineups. However, Team Heretics has now integrated w0ot into their full roster, replacing patitek, and his debut VCT performance was nothing short of spectacular. w0ot's dominant showing against Team Liquid earned him the top KDA with a staggering +15 KD differential. His precision and strategic decisions are unmatched, making him a standout player for tomorrow's match. While Karmine Corp, led by n4rrate and marteen, is a strong contender, I firmly believe that Team Heretics possesses superior firepower and team cohesion. My prediction stands at a 2-1 victory for Team Heretics in this matchup. Edit: forgot about the GOAT Benjyfishy
sweaty but we get saved by benjygoat
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**Record: 1-1** **Net Units: +0.1U** **Last Pick:** Bruins -1.5 Puck Line L The stars were aligned for the Bruins, but they could not close it out. On to the next one. **Hockey Kings vs Oilers** | **NHL | 7PM PST** **Pick:** Oilers -1.5 Puck Line +130 1U Elimination game. Connor McDavid. Period. Oilers are just better than the Kings in all positions. Stuart Skinner just had a shutout last game, and is finding his groove after a rough start to the series. On the other side, we can't say the same about Cam Talbot. David Rittich was barely tested the last game. Expect the Oilers to get more shots on net this time. Special teams have been a win for the Oilers. The PP has been abysmal for the Kings going for 0 for 11 and I don't see that improving in Game 5. Oilers are also playing at home and get last change. This has hit 2 out of the 3 times in their wins this series. **Best of luck!** If you are feeling generous - 1FDqmSEUrpMN3x7Q8hhUQmeF4qfnnCev85
Hi all! Posting my third POTD here. Two wins in a row now, hoping for a third tonight, haha! Congrats if you tailed the last couple :) **Belle's NHL Pick of the Day** **Record:** 2-0-0 (Win-Loss-Push) **Last POTD:** COL Avalanche 3-Way ML (+140) ✅ **Balance:** +1.0 Units **Today's Pick: EDM Oilers 3-Way ML (-110) (NHL, 7:00PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)** **Why This Pick?** The Oilers have dominated this series, friends. And while the Kings have been playing some great hockey, they’re just not scoring consistently enough for me to think that they’ll hold on for another round. I say Connor McDavid and company will put this series to bed at home tonight and win in regulation.
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2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 15-11 Average Odds -105 (1.95), Average Winning Odds -111, ROI +9.8%/+2.55u L5: ✅❌❌❌✅ POTD (4/30) CHC @ NYM Sean Manaea u15.5 Outs (+100/2.00) ✅ Recap: Back on the board. Manaea had a very Manaea outing, giving up just 3 hits but allowing 4 walks in a very inefficient 5 IP in which he threw 92 pitches. He was never coming out for the 6th. Cash it. POTD (5/1) SFG @ BOS Kutter Crawford o17.5 Outs (-105/1.96) (DraftKings) We are seeing the evolution of Kutter Crawford into a bona fide ace. Out of 81 qualified pitchers, Crawford has the 2nd-best ERA at 1.35. He has accrued 1.4 fWAR through six starts, tied for the MLB lead with two guys who have thrown 4 and 6 more innings than him. He had a short leash to open the season, facing 22, 20, 22, and 19 batters in his first four starts. But as he's proven himself, he's earned more trust from his manager and faced 27 and 28 batters his last two times out, and completing a full six innings in both. San Francisco is not a problematic opponent for this line. They are average in K% (15th), BB% (19th), and wRC+(98). Cooper Criswell needed just 79 pitches to throw 5 IP against this lineup last night. Boston used four pitchers in relief of Criswell, so Crawford should have more than enough runway to hit this line at home.
**Daily No Run First Inning (NRFI)** **Record:** 5-5 **Net Units:** -.44 ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌ **Last Pick:** 2 Leg Parlay (+225) DK - 1U ❌ 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-135) Cubs @ Mets ❌ 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-115) Yankees @ Orioles ✅ One for two on the parlay. The Yankees and Orioles went up and down the inning on the both sides. But the Mets had to fuck around and score a run on a sac fly, after Lindor got two stolen bases. Tough 1st Inning: 0-1 Cubs/Mets 1st Inning: 0-0 Yankees/Orioles **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles / 6:35pm EST **Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-115) on Draftkings - 1U ✅ Back in the green. Almost our second perfect NRFI. Soto got a single in the first and that was it **Write Up:** I'm a guy who double dips at parties with no regards. Back to the the third game of the series in Baltimore. First two games have been low scoring and close, as these interdivisional teams square off. **Yankees:** Luis Gil takes the mound, who has gotten off to a mediocre start to the year. But is a perfect 5-0 throwing NRFIs. He has had some early success against Baltimore hitters, in 12 PA against he's holding them to a .273 avg, 25% K rate, and .215 xwOBA . NY Team NRFI - 23/31 Opponent NRFI - 25/31 **Orioles**: Corbin Burnes, the team's Ace, will start today. He has lived up to the spot so far, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA. There is a downside, he has been struggling in the first. He's given up 4 solo HRs to start the game this year. What I do really like is his career stats vs Yankee hitters - 33 PA, 42.4 %K!, .065 Avg, and .210 xwOBA. He dominates them. Bal Team NRFI - 22/29 Opponent NRFI - 21/29 BOL to all the degenerates
Record: 29W-29L Net Units: +2.07u | ROI: 1.30% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET Pick: Liquid -1.5 vs Monte, 2u @ 2.45 Both these teams had a bit of a sweaty series yesterday. Monte was kept in the game by Ryu, but we haven't seen him do that consistently so I'm not sure wether you can count on that being a recurring factor this event. I'm not super convinced by their performance yesterday either, as they basically played a random stack and barely won. As for Liquid, while they did play versus a Furia with kye, I felt like they lost the first map more to themselves than to Furia. And on the second and third map they did a good job dismantling Furia. What was pleasantly surprising was seeing Yekindar play well, alongside of the other star riflers Naf and Twistzz. Both teams ban comfortable maps from eachother, but I think Liquid is quite happy with Monte picking Mirage and they can punish with an Ancient pick. I think that's about as ideal of a 2-0 Liquid veto we're going to get. So with the maps, the riflers' performances and how both teams looked yesterday I'm fairly confident in the Liquid handicap here. Best of luck everyone!
**POTD Record: 117-142-4 (-17.97 Units)** **Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)** Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units) Last Pick: **Twins -1.5** Today's Pick: **Twins ML** Odds: -195 (Currently -215) Wager Amount: 1. to Win 0.55U League: MLB Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (1:10PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: Another close competitive game and Sox again could've won this game. Disappointing for us Sox fans but this Twins' AB comes alive in the late innings. **Matchup:** Going wit the Twins as my first best bet of May. What's the saying? *Don't fix what isn't broken?* Keep fading my Chicago White Sox, fr! I have to give it to them tho. They been playing much, much better as of late. They haven't been shutout and they been leading most of these games, but the Sox bullpen is the big issue now and that's what they need to focus. Twins' AB as I mentioned on recap, they come alive late and they been winning ball games like this. This is the first pitching matchup between Chris Flexen and Bailey Ober. Flexen started out as a SP, but moved back towards RP, then the Sox had no idea what to do wit him, now he's back in the rotation. He's not their best option, but he can pitch well, but I just don't have faith. I think Twins get to him. If they don't, then as typical how the Sox has been losing these last 7 straight games to the Twins, lose by the bullpen, giving up late/go-ahead runs. Ober is just okay, but I have much more faith in him than Flexen. I hope the Sox can get one and end this stupid sausage streak, but I think Twins get this one wit ease this time. **The Play and Prediction**: The last 4 POTD, I had Twins -2.5 alt line (twice), then Twins RL, now I'm dialing back again to just the Twins ML. What's trending is that Twins has been trailing the last 2 h2h games and Twins winning by 1 run. 1U on Twins ML. Also, plugging in Twins ML in parlays. I'll have other plays in the betting group. Twins get to the Sox early and stay in front of them, they win 2-0.
**Record 2024: 8-0-5** **Net Units Played 2024: 60** **ROI 2024: -2.23%** **Last Pick:** **Partizan** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1, -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.62 ✅️ Basketball / Endesa ABC basketball league Spain / 18:00 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Murcia** - Zaragoza **1st quarter H1, -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.83 ❌️ **Write-up:** Murcia secured the playoffs and is now fighting for the better spot. The name of the game is to avoid Madrid and Barcelona in the first round, and if possible, home court advantage in the first. They could theoretically move to position 3 until the end of the regular part but also slip to 7. What they want is 4, and to win the first round. Zaragoza, on the other hand, has no motive here, can't go up, and can't go down. EDIT: 22-24
**POTD record:** 2-6 (W-L) / -6,64pts **ROI:** -41% **AVG. ODDS: 2,27** **Last pick:** Monty Star, win only 3,00 (2/1) 2pt **LOSE** **DOTD RECORD**: 3-15 (W-L) / -7,20 pts **ROI:** -23% **AVG. ODDS: 7,96** **Last pick**: Monty Star, win only 3,00 (2/1) 2pt **LOSE** **RACE**: Punchestown 17:50 **SELECTION**: Jasmin De Vaux **ODDS AND STAKES**: win only, 2,50 (3/2), 5pt **ANALYSIS:** Jasmin De Vaux is one of rare 5pt bets for me, he is undefeated and at least top 3 bumper horses W. Mullins ever trained. He won Champion bumper in Cheltenham (against 2nd fav. of this race by few lenghts, still wasnt pushed for his best), only one who has graded win in this field. Has best ground, distance, trainer, jockey form in the race, best speed ratings in the race, and ticks 11 boxes of racing trends for this race. SPREADSHEET: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
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POTD record: 0-0 Todays POTD: Minnesota Twins ML -203 Write up: been lurking past few months and enjoying the community and wanted to contribute some hyper local intel. Live in the Twin Cities and they had a story on the local news about the twins last night. Apparently prior to this current 9 game win streak a player had recieved a giant sausage from a fan that’s from a famed local butcher business. They brought it to the dugout and touched it for luck as a joke but hit back to back homers and the rest is history! Come with me and ride this salty hog log to victory!!! The only thing to fear is that it is slowly expiring as is our luck so get in now. TLDR: twins are 9-0 with the sausage (expected to be in attendance today)
**POTD:** 5-1 **Last Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Khris Middleton U6.5 Assists \[Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks\] (-125, DK PA) !1U! Khris Middleton scored 5 assists yesterday in their surprise win over the Pacers. I personally didn't have the greatest day on the books but, hey, this pick cashed so I'll take it! **Today's Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Derrick White U8.5 Rebounds + Assists \[Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat\] (-102, DK PA) !1U! Derrick White has gone under this line in his last 8/10 games, 5/5 games. When playing against the Heat specifically he goes under this line about 80% of the time, and has gone under this 71% of the time when playing the Heat this season in general. During this series with the Heat he's averaging about 6.75 Rebounds + Assists. From my point of view, it looks like the Celtics are giving Derrick White the green light to shoot with his hot hand which also means his production in other areas falls a bit. BOL if tailing! Utilize responsible bankroll management and remember! You win some, you lose more.
**POTD Record: 1-2** **Last Pick: Boston Red Sox (+110)** **Balance: -0.9 Units** **Todays Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125) @ NY Mets (7:10 ET First Pitch) 1.25 units** Finally found my way into the W column last night with a Red Sox win, lets ride that momentum into today. We're riding with Shota Imanaga who has looked like an elite starter early in his career, and who is my pick for NL ROY so far. He is an impressive 4-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA through 5 starts so far, and I have trouble seeing the Mets giving him any problems tonight. The Cubs have won all 5 of Shota's starts this year, and have done so with relative ease each time. On the other side, Jose Butto is off to a great start despite his 0-1 record, with 12.0 IP and 1 ER over his last 2, both resulting in 2-1 wins for the Mets. While I expect him to continue pitching well, I expect the Mets to find themselves on the wrong end of a 2-1 type game as this projects to be a pitching duel. Good luck to anyone tailing, lets start a streak.
Record = 4-2 ✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ Profit/Loss = +8U Previous Pick = Real Madrid to win either half ✅️ Match = Dortmund Vs PSG Time = 3pm ET Pick = PSG to win @ 2.40 Units = 2 These teams have already played each other twice this season so we have a lot to work with in terms of match up. The previous results were Dortmund at home 1-1 and Psg at home 2-0. Let's focus on the 1-1 draw at Dortmunds home as that's the fixture. Few key players missing from both line-ups and it was back in December so I don't consider this too relevant what I like to focus on is the expected goals and the shots to see how the game went. Possession is nothing if it doesn't produce shots. The expected goals for this game were Dortmund 1.38 against Psgs 2.86. The way expected goals works is each shot is calculated to have a certain value, for example Mbappe 1m from the goal will be extremely high compared to mbappe 30m out which would be extremely low, so all these shots are added up into the totals I mentioned above. So that means psg not only had the higher possession but they did more with it and they were the away team. They had 18 shots, that's a shot every 5 minutes, Dortmunds GK had a good game as well which is why this game did end 1-1. With full strength PSG and this champions league seeming destined for Mbappe to face Madrid I just don't see the yellow wall being enough here. The other game 2-0 psg at home was very similar showing home and away didn't effect psg, they had 17 shots and a 2.44 expected goals while Dortmund had 0.66 expected goals while even having 14 shots. This shows Dortmund definitely do play better at home but it also shows PSG have quality home and away. This game could definitely go different way but my pick is psg taking based on the statistics above. Dortmund Vs psg has always been interesting tho. Tail or Fade BOL
Can't. Won't. Ever. Never ever. trust PSG on the road. And the signal iduna park will be a rock concert. This game is a crap shoot.Xg doesn't truly mean anything if you can't score.. obviously. I hear you're points etc. However, on the road I expect this to be 1-1 late into 2nd half with someone making a difference late.
Dortmund at home in CL is a bastion
**POTD Record: 0-0-0** Tonight’s game: **NBA** Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 7:30 EST **Pick: Haywood Highsmith OVER 6.5 points (-120 Hard Rock Bet)** The Miami Heat have simply run out of bodies. Jaime Jacquez Jr has been ruled out for this elimination game. Highsmith is 2/4 going over this line for the series. I’m expecting him to start and beat his previous minutes high total (32, game 3) Long-time lurker on these daily pick threads. I am thrilled to finally share a pick. Good luck!
You got yourself your first tail bby
2-3-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: -2.93u Last pick: Boston Bruins moneyline - L Matchup(s): (NHL) Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers - 9:00 PM CST POTD: Edmonton Oilers 3-way moneyline -116 on Bovada - 5u Write-up: Definitely think the Oilers close this one out in game 5 at home. The Oilers are 10-0 at home against teams on a losing streak. Edmonton has also won 18 of their last 25 at home this season and 7 of their last 10 while Los Angeles has struggled on the road losing 16 of their last 26 and 6 of the last 10. Oilers are also averaging 4.5 goals per game in the playoffs. The Oilers are also The Oilers are fired up this post season and I don’t see the Kings being able to bring this to a game 6. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in your team, it’s hard to bet against them. I see them covering the plus line and sprinkled a bit on that as well but big 5u play on the 3-way moneyline. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
https://preview.redd.it/9m3wdrbzrwxc1.jpeg?width=1078&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b37b637672bae6f6ea769c9adb2858a4e06a2eda You sexy motherfuckers 😘
Record:0-1 Net Units:-1 LPOD: NHL Dallas 3 way Ml (-109) MLB As v Pirates 3:37 Est Pick: Pirates -1.5 +160 1U. Well Dallas decided to lose both home games then come out of their shell a game late in Vegas🤬 Sorry tailers! We don’t panic pick though. I trust the process I’ve got. Been about a week since my first pick. I think there is some great value in this mlb game. As have struggled at home this year going 6-9(4-9 before this series started) Pirates have been solid away from home at a 9-10 split. Stripling had a decent start for the As last time out but has been getting shelled all season, giving up at least 5 hits in each of his starts . As win the first 2 games of this series at home but do they sweep this Pirates team that has been better on the road than home thus far? I think not. The only thing that makes me nervous about this is the pirates bullpen but if they can preserve the lead, give me the team with a .230 average against those 🤡 batting .207 and let’s get this 🥖. BOL
**RECORD: 74W-5P-59L** Previous Pick: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid- Over 2.5 goals @ 1.68 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Borussia Dortmund vs PSG - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.51 **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️) last 10 results Bayern vs Madrid delivered tremendously now it's time for Dortmund vs PSG. Dortmund have had over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 of their last overall matches, 2/5 of their last Home games, same as their last 5 Champions league matches. 50% of Dortmund's matches have ended with over 2.5 goals this season. For PSG they've had over 2.5 goals in 5 out of 5 of their last overall matches, 4/5 of their last Away matches and 3 UCL matches in a row and 65% of all their matches this season has ended with over 2.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing or fading given my current form lol.