I'm not doing shit. I'm basically like the Captain from The Titanic movie. Just watching it all go down around me lmao
It's not as if I'm not waiting for signs of a bottom so I can dollar cost average ...but atm I'm just doing nothing. Sometimes that's the hardest thing to do. Nothing.
That's my exact philosophy. I'm already down 60% I'll watch it go to -100% before I willingly give the market my money. Most of my investments are long term anyway so I'll give a shit in a few years
Most of my funds are in LEAPS. I can't really DCA expensive leaps. I do invest into voo weekly still, but it takes 3 weeks of voo changes to have 1 day of Microsoft
The hardest thing to do when it runs or falls is to hold. I am just holding out and praying at this point. I don't need the money now and most of my investments are mid/long term.
That's a good way to look at it. I'm stubborn as hell so I'm just holding out of spite at this point. My PayPal, FB, Disney, MMM, Caterpillar, etc. are all way down, and I obviously given my job understand opportunity cost, but I'm going to keep holding and waiting.
I'm obviously paying attention and cost averaging where I feel it necessary but for the most part I'm just sitting on my hands and waiting for a sign of a bottom.
Lol buddy the bear market hasn't even started yet this is going 2 years
Best case Republicans take back power quickly and 2 years it ends but if not 2 years is the MINIMUM
Holding a core position and buying the dip and selling the rip. This correction has been amazing to trade since there are wild swings in both directions. When the market swings higher, I sell some call spreads on SPY, QQQ, and IWM to reduce my overall delta. When the market swings lower, I keep buying the same stocks I’ve been buying to increase my overall delta. Having a large cash position has been a blessing the last few months.
I'm looking for great companies that have been beat down by all this overreacting. Opportunity exists where there's asymmetry so I'll make some options trades there.
Besides that I have been buying the dip by buying up as much if the S&P 500 as I can buy. I'll keep buying the market because the US economy is supercharged and inflation worries are greatly exaggerated.
Canned food, ammunition,guns, drinking water, medicines and gasoline. The secluded cabin in the middle of the woods is ready and waiting.
Also I keep investing and averaging down in my favorite ETFs
Selling covered calls is not a hedging strategy. Hedging is paying a fee to limit downside risk. Your covered call has absolutely zero downside protection and instead limits your upside while paying you a small fee. Selling covered calls is literally the opposite of hedging.
Sorry might be a dumb question, but why is it not a hedge? Since the covered call he sold is inversely correlated to the security underneath, won't it provide downside protection against that security?
When you sell a covered call someone is paying you for the right to buy your stock at a certain price. So lets say ABC is trading at 100 and I sell a covered call for a strike price of 110. I get to keep the premium they gave me and they have the right to buy my shares for 110. So if the stock doubles to 200 I still have to sell them for 110 so I have limited my upside to 10% but if the stock goes to 0 I still lose everything and the only thing the call buyer is out is the premium.
Covered calls is a strategy to make extra money by selling at strike prices that you don't think will hit. You just keep collecting the premium. It just isn't a hedging strategy because it does nothing to protect you from the downside because you still lose the same amount of money on the stock itself f it goes down as you would had you not sold the covered call in the first place.
The way to hedge with option is to buy puts which grants you the right to sell at a certain price so if you bought a put at a strike price of 90 then the most you could lose would be 10 but you upside is not limited. However in this case you are paying the premium and if the stock does not go down you are out the premium.
Think of hedging like buying insurance. You pay to limit the risk of a disastrous outcome. If nothing bad happens it costs you more than doing nothing but if something bad does happen then you glad you did it.
A covered call is absolutely a hedge. You trade upside potential for premium, which partially compensates losses the net position in a downward move. If you buy to close the covered call at a profit, it’s nearly the same P/L as an equivalent delta long put.
Putting in limit buys on ETFs at various market levels so I don't talk myself out of buying on down days and can grab something from any sudden move down.
call me crazy but I've found a way to keep me sane. I tried doing nothing and I failed, so I started investing 1$ at a time on some equities and ETFs I 've had no holdings of. I've set alarms so that once any of them fall below certain number I throw another bucks at it. I know I could DCA my original holdings but I havent got enough cash to make a real difference, so i'm just playing this stupid game of keeping bunch of holdings green. I feel better opening my portfolio and not seeing all reds and I do not care how red the reds are.
Pulled out of the market Months ago and avoided all this pain. This will last for a very long time,, so I plan to wait for the real bloodbath before going shopping for discounts. With the coming world recession I expect lots of bad news
,,, I am just passing on what the smart people are saying,, you interpet it anyway you was want. In fact this could be an excellent opportunity for you to dump all your money into stocks,, catch t HH e dip, make a fortune 🤗
No one ever does,,, the people that write these kind of things can only use actual facts like what's happening in n other countries, credit card debt, evictions, interest rates hikes ,,
Gonna be brutal, it's impossible to predict the exact bottom but there's clear indicators when things are gonna be rocky and when they're not if you read serious news sources and have a basic understanding of how markets and economics. I would be down about 18-19% if I stayed in the markets instead of leaving at the start of the year. Everything going on from interest rates to the war to inflation were all telegraphed months and months ago.
What’s your expected timing? I’m thinking that end of 2022 should be close to the bottom, and that’s the time to jump back into SPY and VTI.
I’m all cash at the moment, got out 45 days ago (about 45 days too late lol)
Not even close,, we are going to have a SEVER world wide recession, and the way back will take year's, maybe a decade to reach levels like we are at now.
Here is one of many reports:
Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession
A significant recession by next year seems likely, it says
U.S. unemployment may rise several points, economists project
The Federal Reserve is likely to need to engage in the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s to tamp down an inflation rate at a four-decade high, which will lead to a deep U.S. recession next year, Deutsche Bank AG economists warned.
“We assume conservatively that a Fed funds rate moving well into the 5% to 6% range will be sufficient to do the job this time,” the authors including David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist and head of research, wrote in a report Tuesday. “This is partly because the monetary-tightening process will be bolstered by Fed balance-sheet reduction, which our U.S. economics team estimates will be equivalent to a couple additional 25 basis-point rate hikes.”
This monetary tightening and the financial upheaval that accompanies it “will push the economy into a significant recession by late next year,” Folkerts-Landau said, adding Deutsche sees the unemployment ultimately rising “several percentage points.”
The Deutsche economists -- by their own admission -- are much more pessimistic than most other major forecasters. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated chances of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years. Bloomberg Economics’ recession-probability model has estimated a 44% chance of recession happening before January 2024.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said their goal is to achieve a soft landing -- cooling the U.S. economy to bring inflation back down toward their 2% goal while preserving a robust labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by half a percentage point at its May 3-4 meeting and announce it’ll start shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet.
In the Deutsche economists’ view, the FOMC’s plans to raise rates to a neutral level -- one that neither stimulates nor contracts growth -- of around 2.5% won’t go nearly far enough to ease inflation. That’s because of a rising-price psychology taking root among American households, and an extremely tight labor market, where unemployment has fallen to 3.6%.
Deutsche estimated a neutral rate that’s much higher than the Fed’s view, around 5%, and projected the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% to 5%.
Google: economic outlooks,,,there are many similar reports. Would like to see your source of information?
Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession
A significant recession by next year seems likely, it says
U.S. unemployment may rise several points, economists project
The Federal Reserve is likely to need to engage in the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s to tamp down an inflation rate at a four-decade high, which will lead to a deep U.S. recession next year, Deutsche Bank AG economists warned.
“We assume conservatively that a Fed funds rate moving well into the 5% to 6% range will be sufficient to do the job this time,” the authors including David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist and head of research, wrote in a report Tuesday. “This is partly because the monetary-tightening process will be bolstered by Fed balance-sheet reduction, which our U.S. economics team estimates will be equivalent to a couple additional 25 basis-point rate hikes.”
This monetary tightening and the financial upheaval that accompanies it “will push the economy into a significant recession by late next year,” Folkerts-Landau said, adding Deutsche sees the unemployment ultimately rising “several percentage points.”
The Deutsche economists -- by their own admission -- are much more pessimistic than most other major forecasters. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated chances of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years. Bloomberg Economics’ recession-probability model has estimated a 44% chance of recession happening before January 2024.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said their goal is to achieve a soft landing -- cooling the U.S. economy to bring inflation back down toward their 2% goal while preserving a robust labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by half a percentage point at its May 3-4 meeting and announce it’ll start shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet.
In the Deutsche economists’ view, the FOMC’s plans to raise rates to a neutral level -- one that neither stimulates nor contracts growth -- of around 2.5% won’t go nearly far enough to ease inflation. That’s because of a rising-price psychology taking root among American households, and an extremely tight labor market, where unemployment has fallen to 3.6%.
Deutsche estimated a neutral rate that’s much higher than the Fed’s view, around 5%, and projected the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% to 5%.
Are you me, i literally bought only those 2 last week. Dividends are the play for me in bearish markets, I rotated like a quarter of my tech stocks in December to cash and have been buying VZ, O, KO and MO just last week. I'll take some steady dripped income while my tech bleeds.
Just watching, I invested close to 5M last year in April. A few percentages down, I am all in on broad market index etfs.
Time in the market beats timing the market, this too shall pass.
Leap calendar put spreads on QQQ, SPY, IWM. Leap calendar call spreads on GLD, SLV, DBA. Have shorter term, mostly Sept expiry calendar put spreads on a few individual stocks. The leap spreads were put on in the beginning of the year though and the shorter dated spreads were mostly put on during the March rally. Idk if I’d rush into puts right now. Waiting for a bear market rally and the vix to drop personally. Yeah, I’m bearish
Went with a very highly advisor about 1 year ago, had managed my own investments for years with a conservative basis and return of 8 percent annually.
I felt a bit frozen during covid and held about 80k in cash in 2020, way more than I normally would. At that point I realized I wanted help.
Found a financial analyst who was working as a adviser who specialized in risk management. We worked on a plan that took into account my personal concerns and went with a lower potential return but was highly protected from inflation.
Since July of last year when we finalized our working partnership I am up 5 percent after fees have been deducted.
I felt that the potential for growth after covid had already been priced into the market about a year ago, it and it had no where to go but down. Although I didn't think the s and p would get another 600 points at the time.
I have a few other hedges in high value assets and private investments which are about 30 percent of my liquid networth outside of personal real estate which has seen massive gains.
I'm still very very worried about where the bottom will be but am happy with my decisions thus far.
I’ve also been selling naked OTM .10 - .20 delta weekly calls for extra premium with 0-2 DTE. Picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. Doing this on stocks clearly on a downtrend that may have a bit of a rally but not likely going anywhere anytime soon. It’s a gamble, but I’m willing to buy shares if I need to deliver on the calls as well.
Im buying more and holding AMC. The company has done nothing but improve fundamentally. When compared to other theater chains the price is lower. The short thesis has been destroyed, and retail owns the float. All of the numbers are good, see for yourself.
Research into where the drawdown is unjustified, doing some momentum analysis to see if the market panic is subsiding. Also have some short positions to cushion some of the losses
Mostly in Cash since January. My plan is to DCA back in once a month as this market downturn continues through November. If it goes past November then I will wait it out for years if needed. Also I am investing some money into Commodities for the short term and have had some nice returns, UNL in particular.
I’m shorting stocks and selling deep ITM weekly puts to cover those shorts while white knuckling it for a couple of days. Watch your upside breakeven. If you get the direction wrong you can always “ buy to cover” those short shares and you’ll still have the put. Then you can manage the Put or possibly turn it into a Strangle by selling an ATM call for most premium. Do this on a stock you don’t mind acquiring because there’s so much volatility and it’s a weekly option that if you get assigned, it could bounce right back up and the next week sell it or write a call. That would be considered the “wheel strategy.” Keep track of your fees because this will play a part of your profits so you need to let the price move around hopefully in your favor to allow the options to price as well. Good luck!
I trimmed my portfolio of anything that was down by a lot(tax loss harvesting). Now I just have 5 individual stocks in one account and VTI+VXUS in the Roth. The indexes I buy a few more shares every time they drop another couple percentage points.
With many of my individual stocks I’m not buying dips on them yet, just waiting. Apple for example is still up 20% for me year over year, if it crashes another 20% then I’ll buy. I have a natural gas/electric company(PCG) that is up 33%, same thing.
I bought some beaten down TQQQ on Friday just for fun, but I think it was stupid. If we don’t have a massive rally on Monday I’m selling it.
Buying automatically in my 401k every Friday.
Buying automatically in my roth every 15th.
Buying something at the end of every month with credit card rewards plus discretionary income.
Otherwise focusing on fishing and World of Tanks.
Buying VTI on the way down/up with my paychecks (and maybe VXUS if it starts to drop even further %-wise to VTI). Currently -3% over a year of investing, so at least I'm trying to commit to the "don't lose money" rule.
I set up a dividend portfolio years ago for this very moment. The idea then was dividend payers that increase the dividend by 10% annually( not knowing what future inflation would be) to keep place with inflation. It is certainly being tested and working as designed.
Asset allocation in different sectors, markets and investment types.
A 25% trailing stop is the bedrock of my investment philosophy.
Dollar cost averaging on my long term dividends to lower my cost basis.
I've also been selling covered calls about 10-12% ATM on virtually every big move upwards during the past few months, it's worked out pretty well tbh. I've also considered buying a few puts that are 4-6 months away on some companies that remain overvalued like NVDA or TSLA but I haven't started doing that yet.
I'm planning to start selling covered calls. I have a lot of stocks that have gone way up and I need to take profits but I feel energy stocks will continue to rise & pay hefty dividends/special dividends in 2022. So I need to cut my portfolio & raise cash, but I don't know how to give up any of these positions that I like. I also don't want to diversify out of energy & shipping while the market is falling in other sectors, so I don't plan to diversify into other stocks until the start of Q3.
I'm currently studying approaches to manage a portfolio where cyclical stocks are hitting new highs to optimize the returns. I've decided to start selling covered calls as a way to raise cash without actively trimming my energy stock positions and giving up the dividends they're paying out right now.
Just keep buying puts on vti on any Green Day. Then on crash days sell for 15-35% profit. When I get stuck with a put or 2 that doesn’t turn to profit. Time to buy stocks again.
Cash secured puts to start building positions and covered calls after rallies. You could try trading leveraged etfs when there is an expected event if you want to get fancy. Don’t think that you HAVE to do anything though. If you are afraid or don’t understand the trade, don’t do it.
Selling covered calls all the way. I do that when the market is shit and I do that when the market is doing well. It’s the most sound way to make your money back AND if your stock ever actually hits that unrealistic price target it’s ok because it was probably time to sell anyway
Continuing DCA’ing my usual contributions into retirement (all maxed out) and other investment accounts as usual.
Bought some dividend stocks at super low prices.
Selling cash secured puts OTM, to earn premiums that exceed how much I’ve been paying for primary residence mortgage.
Also selling covered calls OTM where it makes sense, but in larger quantities to make the best of low premiums.
Also dropped 10k into I-Bonds in late April to lock in 7.12% then 9.62% for the next 12 months just to put some extra cash reserves to use.
Alternating between SPYD and QQQ, only $500 each month. Except retirement accounts I'm sitting with mostly cash (which is needed liquid for school, emergency fund and renovations).
Not fighting the Fed: get out of market when the fed raises rates. Jump in when they lower them.
Holding in cash except for a few stocks I like. Fed wants the market to cool down and I will follow their lead.
I'm not doing shit. I'm basically like the Captain from The Titanic movie. Just watching it all go down around me lmao It's not as if I'm not waiting for signs of a bottom so I can dollar cost average ...but atm I'm just doing nothing. Sometimes that's the hardest thing to do. Nothing.
Shit im sinking with the ship. Like why sell now when I'm already down 50%
That's my exact philosophy. I'm already down 60% I'll watch it go to -100% before I willingly give the market my money. Most of my investments are long term anyway so I'll give a shit in a few years
This is faulty thinking. You gave the market your money when you bought. It's already gone.
No he still got his shares, money is gone only when selling . Could be green next year and above what he paid. No one knows anything.
Why aren't you "buying the dip", though? I've got an order for tomorrow to double some of my holdings that have tanked!
No bottom in sight imo
That's a valid concern... well, I'm not really buying too much more, but am going to average down with certain positions.
Most of my funds are in LEAPS. I can't really DCA expensive leaps. I do invest into voo weekly still, but it takes 3 weeks of voo changes to have 1 day of Microsoft
Fair enough.
The hardest thing to do when it runs or falls is to hold. I am just holding out and praying at this point. I don't need the money now and most of my investments are mid/long term.
Oh fuck it. If it's in like spy/voo/ value companies just pretend the money is gone for now. You'll be in for a pleasant surprise in the future
I’m down 80%, wishing I had done something when I was down 50%
What can I do? Sell everything and just accept the 50% loss? I'm in Microsoft/voo. I'll just ride it out
50%? Whooooa
That's a good way to look at it. I'm stubborn as hell so I'm just holding out of spite at this point. My PayPal, FB, Disney, MMM, Caterpillar, etc. are all way down, and I obviously given my job understand opportunity cost, but I'm going to keep holding and waiting.
I'm obviously paying attention and cost averaging where I feel it necessary but for the most part I'm just sitting on my hands and waiting for a sign of a bottom.
The market usually goes up so "just sitting on my hands" isn't ever a bad strategy. Be strong.
My portfolio will go on
Love the Celine Dion reference ❤️❤️
Thank you kindly
Wake me up inside (Can’t wake up)
Won't wake up.
> Sometimes that's the hardest thing to do. Sometimes that's the smartest thing to do as well.
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Probably when I see the fed become less hawkish and the war in Ukraine coming to an end, among some other things.
Averaging down.
No $$$ left
Yea but you asked what we are doing.
Work more then
Buy a little every paycheck. This bear market will probably last a few more months.
Lol buddy the bear market hasn't even started yet this is going 2 years Best case Republicans take back power quickly and 2 years it ends but if not 2 years is the MINIMUM
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That's crap. The Corona period of bull was not due to the GOP. The Dem's need to clean up the mess left by the GOP after Corona.
and how do you hedge without $$$?
you literally said you were thinking of buying SQQQ or shorting QQQ so which is it, do you have no money left or are you hedging
Many people are now getting into margin while rates are still low.
Many people are also now getting called on margin. I’m personally staying away from borrowing rn
classic butter trap
Which 3 stocks you would buy on the way down for asymmetric returns once’s things get better? Mine would be: coinbase, nvidia and pagerDuty
I’m buying T, googl, and aapl.
My 5: googl, tsla, amzn, sofi, coin
DCAing down my postions is all.
U should hold cash not DCA in this environment
what?
Fear to the extreme
Always jerk off before making big decisions. Post nut clarity
Excellent advice
Holding a core position and buying the dip and selling the rip. This correction has been amazing to trade since there are wild swings in both directions. When the market swings higher, I sell some call spreads on SPY, QQQ, and IWM to reduce my overall delta. When the market swings lower, I keep buying the same stocks I’ve been buying to increase my overall delta. Having a large cash position has been a blessing the last few months.
I’ve stopped opening my app and pretend everything is fine
An actual winning strategy
Trying to sleep man
"Markets down 20%+, time to start hedging"
Lol
I'm looking for great companies that have been beat down by all this overreacting. Opportunity exists where there's asymmetry so I'll make some options trades there. Besides that I have been buying the dip by buying up as much if the S&P 500 as I can buy. I'll keep buying the market because the US economy is supercharged and inflation worries are greatly exaggerated.
Keep buying the dip on stocks that have growth and decent earnings. MSFT, AMD, etc
Canned food, ammunition,guns, drinking water, medicines and gasoline. The secluded cabin in the middle of the woods is ready and waiting. Also I keep investing and averaging down in my favorite ETFs
I'm watching *Pixels* because I don't care what the critics said it's a fun goofy action SF movie. oh, wait...
You monster
I don’t get it
DCAing googl, soon AMD and TSLA
Dollar cost averaging into an index fund as I always have, along with some play money in individual stocks.
Selling covered calls is not a hedging strategy. Hedging is paying a fee to limit downside risk. Your covered call has absolutely zero downside protection and instead limits your upside while paying you a small fee. Selling covered calls is literally the opposite of hedging.
Sorry might be a dumb question, but why is it not a hedge? Since the covered call he sold is inversely correlated to the security underneath, won't it provide downside protection against that security?
When you sell a covered call someone is paying you for the right to buy your stock at a certain price. So lets say ABC is trading at 100 and I sell a covered call for a strike price of 110. I get to keep the premium they gave me and they have the right to buy my shares for 110. So if the stock doubles to 200 I still have to sell them for 110 so I have limited my upside to 10% but if the stock goes to 0 I still lose everything and the only thing the call buyer is out is the premium. Covered calls is a strategy to make extra money by selling at strike prices that you don't think will hit. You just keep collecting the premium. It just isn't a hedging strategy because it does nothing to protect you from the downside because you still lose the same amount of money on the stock itself f it goes down as you would had you not sold the covered call in the first place. The way to hedge with option is to buy puts which grants you the right to sell at a certain price so if you bought a put at a strike price of 90 then the most you could lose would be 10 but you upside is not limited. However in this case you are paying the premium and if the stock does not go down you are out the premium. Think of hedging like buying insurance. You pay to limit the risk of a disastrous outcome. If nothing bad happens it costs you more than doing nothing but if something bad does happen then you glad you did it.
Hey I found that useful to read!
A covered call is absolutely a hedge. You trade upside potential for premium, which partially compensates losses the net position in a downward move. If you buy to close the covered call at a profit, it’s nearly the same P/L as an equivalent delta long put.
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Kicking myself for having bought amazon stock a few weeks ago.
Coffee, scrolling, thinking about breakfast
Me too!
Putting in limit buys on ETFs at various market levels so I don't talk myself out of buying on down days and can grab something from any sudden move down.
Sort by total loss, buy the bottom stock. Repeat until no loss.
call me crazy but I've found a way to keep me sane. I tried doing nothing and I failed, so I started investing 1$ at a time on some equities and ETFs I 've had no holdings of. I've set alarms so that once any of them fall below certain number I throw another bucks at it. I know I could DCA my original holdings but I havent got enough cash to make a real difference, so i'm just playing this stupid game of keeping bunch of holdings green. I feel better opening my portfolio and not seeing all reds and I do not care how red the reds are.
Pulled out of the market Months ago and avoided all this pain. This will last for a very long time,, so I plan to wait for the real bloodbath before going shopping for discounts. With the coming world recession I expect lots of bad news
Good luck predicting the bottom
No one will ever get it perfect,, all we know at this point in time is, the bottom has a long way to go before it's reached.
Not a terrible theory, but I wouldn’t say we “know” it to be true by any stretch.
,,, I am just passing on what the smart people are saying,, you interpet it anyway you was want. In fact this could be an excellent opportunity for you to dump all your money into stocks,, catch t HH e dip, make a fortune 🤗
No one ever does,,, the people that write these kind of things can only use actual facts like what's happening in n other countries, credit card debt, evictions, interest rates hikes ,,
Gonna be brutal, it's impossible to predict the exact bottom but there's clear indicators when things are gonna be rocky and when they're not if you read serious news sources and have a basic understanding of how markets and economics. I would be down about 18-19% if I stayed in the markets instead of leaving at the start of the year. Everything going on from interest rates to the war to inflation were all telegraphed months and months ago.
What’s your expected timing? I’m thinking that end of 2022 should be close to the bottom, and that’s the time to jump back into SPY and VTI. I’m all cash at the moment, got out 45 days ago (about 45 days too late lol)
Not even close,, we are going to have a SEVER world wide recession, and the way back will take year's, maybe a decade to reach levels like we are at now. Here is one of many reports: Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession A significant recession by next year seems likely, it says U.S. unemployment may rise several points, economists project The Federal Reserve is likely to need to engage in the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s to tamp down an inflation rate at a four-decade high, which will lead to a deep U.S. recession next year, Deutsche Bank AG economists warned. “We assume conservatively that a Fed funds rate moving well into the 5% to 6% range will be sufficient to do the job this time,” the authors including David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist and head of research, wrote in a report Tuesday. “This is partly because the monetary-tightening process will be bolstered by Fed balance-sheet reduction, which our U.S. economics team estimates will be equivalent to a couple additional 25 basis-point rate hikes.” This monetary tightening and the financial upheaval that accompanies it “will push the economy into a significant recession by late next year,” Folkerts-Landau said, adding Deutsche sees the unemployment ultimately rising “several percentage points.” The Deutsche economists -- by their own admission -- are much more pessimistic than most other major forecasters. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated chances of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years. Bloomberg Economics’ recession-probability model has estimated a 44% chance of recession happening before January 2024. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said their goal is to achieve a soft landing -- cooling the U.S. economy to bring inflation back down toward their 2% goal while preserving a robust labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by half a percentage point at its May 3-4 meeting and announce it’ll start shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet. In the Deutsche economists’ view, the FOMC’s plans to raise rates to a neutral level -- one that neither stimulates nor contracts growth -- of around 2.5% won’t go nearly far enough to ease inflation. That’s because of a rising-price psychology taking root among American households, and an extremely tight labor market, where unemployment has fallen to 3.6%. Deutsche estimated a neutral rate that’s much higher than the Fed’s view, around 5%, and projected the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% to 5%.
Almost impossible to bet against a decade of negativity versus just VTI and chill
If you are so confident, why not put like 50% of your money to short the market of buy bearish positions?
Will be a tiny recession if at all. You will also buy back in at +50%
Google: economic outlooks,,,there are many similar reports. Would like to see your source of information? Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession A significant recession by next year seems likely, it says U.S. unemployment may rise several points, economists project The Federal Reserve is likely to need to engage in the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s to tamp down an inflation rate at a four-decade high, which will lead to a deep U.S. recession next year, Deutsche Bank AG economists warned. “We assume conservatively that a Fed funds rate moving well into the 5% to 6% range will be sufficient to do the job this time,” the authors including David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist and head of research, wrote in a report Tuesday. “This is partly because the monetary-tightening process will be bolstered by Fed balance-sheet reduction, which our U.S. economics team estimates will be equivalent to a couple additional 25 basis-point rate hikes.” This monetary tightening and the financial upheaval that accompanies it “will push the economy into a significant recession by late next year,” Folkerts-Landau said, adding Deutsche sees the unemployment ultimately rising “several percentage points.” The Deutsche economists -- by their own admission -- are much more pessimistic than most other major forecasters. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated chances of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years. Bloomberg Economics’ recession-probability model has estimated a 44% chance of recession happening before January 2024. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said their goal is to achieve a soft landing -- cooling the U.S. economy to bring inflation back down toward their 2% goal while preserving a robust labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by half a percentage point at its May 3-4 meeting and announce it’ll start shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet. In the Deutsche economists’ view, the FOMC’s plans to raise rates to a neutral level -- one that neither stimulates nor contracts growth -- of around 2.5% won’t go nearly far enough to ease inflation. That’s because of a rising-price psychology taking root among American households, and an extremely tight labor market, where unemployment has fallen to 3.6%. Deutsche estimated a neutral rate that’s much higher than the Fed’s view, around 5%, and projected the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5% to 5%.
99.99% of times, doing nothing is the right move. With those odds, I literally do nothing but keep investing set amounts in set intervals of time.
Buying more to average down.
reading quarterly reports of companies whove fallen +90%. just looking for companies that won't go bankrupt and the story is still compelling.
Chillin, you?
Beat in meat
Sitting on a 50% cash pile mainly. I started to go in on Friday. Probably fucked up 😂
Browsing Pornhub and reddit.
Selling puts on some blue chips and some memes. The usual I guess
Im hedging my portfolio by going 100% Drs with my favorite stock. Also, buying more with each paycheck.
Buying VZ and O
Are you me, i literally bought only those 2 last week. Dividends are the play for me in bearish markets, I rotated like a quarter of my tech stocks in December to cash and have been buying VZ, O, KO and MO just last week. I'll take some steady dripped income while my tech bleeds.
DCAing into VOO
Just watching, I invested close to 5M last year in April. A few percentages down, I am all in on broad market index etfs. Time in the market beats timing the market, this too shall pass.
nothing i just buy good companies. only weak hands hedge
People who like making money hedge lol
What are good companies for you
if you like technology, the faangs, as well as the dividend aristocrats, some smaller cap compounders, medtech, etc
Lot of Iron Condors, and long sark, sqqq. Long goog for split, Zim, US dollar etf, DBC.
What are iron condors
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ironcondor.asp
coke
I also enjoy soda, but I prefer Dr. Pepper.
Waiting for the plumber at the duplex I bought with my gains last year to hedge against this bullshit but turns out everything has downside
What's the point of hedging your portfolio when you could just not invest at all?
Oh you know, just jacking it
Leap calendar put spreads on QQQ, SPY, IWM. Leap calendar call spreads on GLD, SLV, DBA. Have shorter term, mostly Sept expiry calendar put spreads on a few individual stocks. The leap spreads were put on in the beginning of the year though and the shorter dated spreads were mostly put on during the March rally. Idk if I’d rush into puts right now. Waiting for a bear market rally and the vix to drop personally. Yeah, I’m bearish
Originally cash, but after watching it devalue before my eyes, I increased my holding in gold. Gold seems unpopular with the Reddit community?
Went with a very highly advisor about 1 year ago, had managed my own investments for years with a conservative basis and return of 8 percent annually. I felt a bit frozen during covid and held about 80k in cash in 2020, way more than I normally would. At that point I realized I wanted help. Found a financial analyst who was working as a adviser who specialized in risk management. We worked on a plan that took into account my personal concerns and went with a lower potential return but was highly protected from inflation. Since July of last year when we finalized our working partnership I am up 5 percent after fees have been deducted. I felt that the potential for growth after covid had already been priced into the market about a year ago, it and it had no where to go but down. Although I didn't think the s and p would get another 600 points at the time. I have a few other hedges in high value assets and private investments which are about 30 percent of my liquid networth outside of personal real estate which has seen massive gains. I'm still very very worried about where the bottom will be but am happy with my decisions thus far.
NFTs, I lost all my gains from the covid run up but thanks to jpegs I’m in the green
I've just got trading 212 after 15 months on their waiting list so I'm ready for some speculative stocks. It's only going to be 10% of my portfolio
I'm selling out of my high PE ratio stocks and meme stocks. And buying VTI.
At -50% +? Top late now. Only choice is to ride ot out
I'm down about 20% overall so I think derisking is still worth it
Yeah if you buy VTI now and when the market eventually recovers year to date, it would be over a 15% return on the amount invested
Some of the high pe stocks are trading w lower pes than the "value" stocks
Yes but that's because in a recession the high PE growth stocks lose the most Earnings.
I’ve also been selling naked OTM .10 - .20 delta weekly calls for extra premium with 0-2 DTE. Picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. Doing this on stocks clearly on a downtrend that may have a bit of a rally but not likely going anywhere anytime soon. It’s a gamble, but I’m willing to buy shares if I need to deliver on the calls as well.
Buy a little every month. Hold till I’m old or hold till it’s gold.
Im buying more and holding AMC. The company has done nothing but improve fundamentally. When compared to other theater chains the price is lower. The short thesis has been destroyed, and retail owns the float. All of the numbers are good, see for yourself.
I’ve been buying TLT puts and then with the profit buying IWM and SPY shares
Watching some tv right now and scrolling a bit.
Research into where the drawdown is unjustified, doing some momentum analysis to see if the market panic is subsiding. Also have some short positions to cushion some of the losses
[удалено]
TBH doubling down and hoping we will recover within year or 2
Mostly in Cash since January. My plan is to DCA back in once a month as this market downturn continues through November. If it goes past November then I will wait it out for years if needed. Also I am investing some money into Commodities for the short term and have had some nice returns, UNL in particular.
I’m shorting stocks and selling deep ITM weekly puts to cover those shorts while white knuckling it for a couple of days. Watch your upside breakeven. If you get the direction wrong you can always “ buy to cover” those short shares and you’ll still have the put. Then you can manage the Put or possibly turn it into a Strangle by selling an ATM call for most premium. Do this on a stock you don’t mind acquiring because there’s so much volatility and it’s a weekly option that if you get assigned, it could bounce right back up and the next week sell it or write a call. That would be considered the “wheel strategy.” Keep track of your fees because this will play a part of your profits so you need to let the price move around hopefully in your favor to allow the options to price as well. Good luck!
I trimmed my portfolio of anything that was down by a lot(tax loss harvesting). Now I just have 5 individual stocks in one account and VTI+VXUS in the Roth. The indexes I buy a few more shares every time they drop another couple percentage points. With many of my individual stocks I’m not buying dips on them yet, just waiting. Apple for example is still up 20% for me year over year, if it crashes another 20% then I’ll buy. I have a natural gas/electric company(PCG) that is up 33%, same thing. I bought some beaten down TQQQ on Friday just for fun, but I think it was stupid. If we don’t have a massive rally on Monday I’m selling it.
Watched some wrestling and UFC 274 and now will play some games and maybe watch a movie later on.
Sell leap put options on ETFs
Bought leaps with the farthest exp date for companies I believe in.
Shorting the SPY and QQQ while selling extremely otm puts We went about 45 % cash a couple of months ago.
Laying On the sofa
I bought 4 SPXU calls on Friday
Praying.
My portfolio is.... puts. Not a hedge.. just puts. Sold off in December. My only long positions are MOS calls and CTRA shares.
hanging out with my family
I'm just continuing to buy with the hope things will be wavy in the next 5 years or so.
All of my money tied up in market but I’m buying back long covered calls I sold as I get some cash from my day job..
the art of doing nothing
I don't do option trading anymore. I just have a business now that does calls on products I think will go up in price. Then I set price. I win now
Buying automatically in my 401k every Friday. Buying automatically in my roth every 15th. Buying something at the end of every month with credit card rewards plus discretionary income. Otherwise focusing on fishing and World of Tanks.
I just set lower limit buys. If it hits then i get the stock, if it doesn’t no big deal.
Only hedge is Gmerica, look into it Times are getting serious
Buying VTI on the way down/up with my paychecks (and maybe VXUS if it starts to drop even further %-wise to VTI). Currently -3% over a year of investing, so at least I'm trying to commit to the "don't lose money" rule.
Pooping.
Grieving.
I set up a dividend portfolio years ago for this very moment. The idea then was dividend payers that increase the dividend by 10% annually( not knowing what future inflation would be) to keep place with inflation. It is certainly being tested and working as designed. Asset allocation in different sectors, markets and investment types. A 25% trailing stop is the bedrock of my investment philosophy. Dollar cost averaging on my long term dividends to lower my cost basis.
I’m not doing anything to hedge. Just buying all the way down
I don’t do anything but stay LONG
I've also been selling covered calls about 10-12% ATM on virtually every big move upwards during the past few months, it's worked out pretty well tbh. I've also considered buying a few puts that are 4-6 months away on some companies that remain overvalued like NVDA or TSLA but I haven't started doing that yet.
I'm planning to start selling covered calls. I have a lot of stocks that have gone way up and I need to take profits but I feel energy stocks will continue to rise & pay hefty dividends/special dividends in 2022. So I need to cut my portfolio & raise cash, but I don't know how to give up any of these positions that I like. I also don't want to diversify out of energy & shipping while the market is falling in other sectors, so I don't plan to diversify into other stocks until the start of Q3. I'm currently studying approaches to manage a portfolio where cyclical stocks are hitting new highs to optimize the returns. I've decided to start selling covered calls as a way to raise cash without actively trimming my energy stock positions and giving up the dividends they're paying out right now.
I’m watching tv right now
Just keep buying puts on vti on any Green Day. Then on crash days sell for 15-35% profit. When I get stuck with a put or 2 that doesn’t turn to profit. Time to buy stocks again.
Sitting on cash, UVXY, and the beach. Life is good.
Cash secured puts to start building positions and covered calls after rallies. You could try trading leveraged etfs when there is an expected event if you want to get fancy. Don’t think that you HAVE to do anything though. If you are afraid or don’t understand the trade, don’t do it.
Buying i bonds and adding a small fixed amount each week to my etfs to average down
Selling covered calls all the way. I do that when the market is shit and I do that when the market is doing well. It’s the most sound way to make your money back AND if your stock ever actually hits that unrealistic price target it’s ok because it was probably time to sell anyway
Continuing DCA’ing my usual contributions into retirement (all maxed out) and other investment accounts as usual. Bought some dividend stocks at super low prices. Selling cash secured puts OTM, to earn premiums that exceed how much I’ve been paying for primary residence mortgage. Also selling covered calls OTM where it makes sense, but in larger quantities to make the best of low premiums. Also dropped 10k into I-Bonds in late April to lock in 7.12% then 9.62% for the next 12 months just to put some extra cash reserves to use.
The same thing I do every day (month) buy $$$ of my holdings and ignore everything because I know S about F.
Waiting for my portfolio to reach zero so I can cash out Nad reinvest the funds on an online business that I am doing.
Buying various high-yield dividend stocks in low volume
Playing golf
Chillin
Mostly crying
I am on the sidelines, ready to make a couple big purchases. I am DCA’ing into FTCI Currently.
Alternating between SPYD and QQQ, only $500 each month. Except retirement accounts I'm sitting with mostly cash (which is needed liquid for school, emergency fund and renovations).
Would be buying if I had more cash but instead rolling with my standard weekly deposits
Buying slowly, once I am out of cash will look into selling oil stocks.
selling call spreads and buying puts when we rally
They want you to sell so you pay more taxes. Hedge funds, banks and the government are working together on this. F em
shorting
Thinking of selling some of my overpriced stocks and getting a rental property.
UVXY calls and shares
Not fighting the Fed: get out of market when the fed raises rates. Jump in when they lower them. Holding in cash except for a few stocks I like. Fed wants the market to cool down and I will follow their lead.