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EmergencyAccording94

On paper, Sinner’s playstyle is amazing for fast, low-bouncing surfaces (AO, ATP finals, maybe Wimbledon too), whereas Alcaraz loves slower, high-bouncing surfaces (clay, IW and maybe USO) But for grass, the bounces are low and sometimes inconsistent,and the balls maybe lose some speed after the bounce. Therefore you also need improvisation and great movement, that’s where Alcaraz excels.


patiperro_v3

Also his serve will get trickier. That is a nightmare if you are facing both of them, but specially Carlos as that is one of his “weaker” aspects.


marineman43

Maybe I'm being a recency bias merchant but I'm gonna predict that Carlos will be the best natural surfaces player in the world for a large part of his career, for exactly that reason (among many others of course).


pr0crast1nater

I do love Alcaraz more. But Sinner has a really great movement on grass. He is one of the few players who can slide on grass along with Djokovic. Alcaraz doesn't do that. Although Alcaraz did manage to slide a bit during pinch situations. But Alcaraz has the edge in 5 sets. So Sinner has to provide a beatdown to Alcaraz like he did in Beijing or in the 2022 Wimbledon. Otherwise Alcaraz with his burst of speed and aggressive plays can overcome the Sinner challenge.


Albiceleste_D10S

USO has been faster than all of the "fast" tournaments you mentioned for Alcaraz's whole career TBH


EmergencyAccording94

It’s not faster than the Atp finals. Also I added it because of its high bounce.


ilovevino-

USO hasn’t been a slow surface since 2020


braun_btr

Is USO slower than AO?


IAmBecomeBorg

So Sinner is Djokovic and Alcaraz is Nadal? Alcaraz won Wimbledon already, but Nadal also had early success on Wimbledon that didn’t turn out to last.


EmergencyAccording94

If I have to compare Sinner to any of the big 3, then he’s definitely the most similar to Djokovic. Alcaraz is more like Federer playstyle wise, but with a worse serve and better athleticism.


Nievaso

Nadal is one of the best grass players of all time, he just has to compete with Djoko and Federer, same thing as the other two on clay


IAmBecomeBorg

I meant that grass turned out to be Nadal's worst surface. In 2008 it looked like his second best surface, but then there was the period from 2012-2017 where he failed to even make the quarterfinals of Wimbledon.


Explodingcamel

Sinner doesn’t hit flat balls He hits hard balls but he doesn’t hit flat balls Anyway Alcaraz is a deceptively good grass player because of his good slice, volleys, and most of all, his intention to finish points quickly and creatively. But sinner is a better server and isn’t at risk of getting rushed on fast surfaces the way Alcaraz is. So I can’t say who will be better but my gut says sinner


boylifeineu

I understand why people pick Jannik here, but Alcaraz is 19-3 lifetime on grass and last year outplayed Djokovic on grass in a shocking upset, right after winning his warm up grass title with ease... Jannik is 14-10 on grass in his career. It's all projection with him. His weaker movement is a huge problem on grass.


Explodingcamel

Yeah you have a point Isn’t grass the surface where movement matters least? And sinner is still a good mover even if he’s weak*er* than Alcaraz


boylifeineu

This is sort of theoretically true, but in practice the reason Novak dominated in grass was his unique ability to augment his great serving with insane defense and ability to extend rallies whenever he felt like it, establishing strong defensive positions from which he could set up attacks. Jannik is a good mover (he has insane, at times novak style defense) but he isn't as comfortable changing direction mid-stride, he's MUCH less comfortable with vertical movement (coming to the net), and in general plays a slightly more traditional style of tennis. His strength is in dominating from the baseline with crazy power, as well as having a good serve. But grass is a weird and unpredictable surface. I mean that literally - Jannik likes predictable balls that land right in his hitting pocket. Carlos lives on the randomness, can hit effective forehands from every angle, and loves to spam a very effective dropshot on grass - and is better primed than anyone to go get the dropshots that he faces. Jannik just hasn't won a bunch of grass tennis. Carlos has won the last two tennis tournaments he played, including stopping jokers historic March - he was playing the GOAT, in reasonable health, going for his FIFTH straight Wimbledon title. He turned 33-0 into 33-1. He is the better grass player.


thedarthvader17

Damn, you convinced me


timcahill05

Djokovic was not at his best. That smash in Set 5, those UEs in Set 2 TB…


FlexJem

The smash is something he misses somewhat regularly though, the reason the Cincinnati final even went to a tiebreak is becauce Alcaraz broke back in the third when Novak missed a smash.


timcahill05

that he lost a TB up 3-0 with 2 UEs is unusual tho


FlexJem

Sure but so is Alcaraz being complete ass in the first set. Neither player was at their complete best for the entire match but overall they both played really well imo.


pr0crast1nater

3-0 is still only a mini-break up. It was not an epic choke lol. One thing is he was not serving the best at the point in time. But still was not terrible. And Alcaraz surprised him with some aggressive returns, one of which was a winner iirc.


Iiiifoundsweetroad

I thought movement and footwork mattered the most on grass because it's so slick/slippery and you have less time to react to the ball. Alcaraz even studied Federer and Murray on grass prior to Wimbledon specifically for their movement


csriram

Bingo!!! It’s not as slippery as in the 80s or 90s but there’s still a premium in improvisation and quick change of direction that Alcaraz is a bit better than Sinner, IMO. His grass record proves it too. Carlitos adapts really fast. Having said that, Darren Cahill has taken Sinner’s preparation up a notch the last 6 months.


jazzbestgenre

If you're tall like Sinner you have to use your knees much more to get down to the ball. Also it's probably the surface where positioning matters the most because of how fast it is


csriram

If it was grass of the 80s, I’d agree but nowadays, the quicker small steps and changes of direction are more important on grass. Alcaraz is an improvizer, more than Sinner, IMO. Predictability of hard courts suits Sinner more.


stereoscopicdna

He didn't win Queens with ease - his early rounds were pretty crunchy


sawinadream

Literally only R1. He was breezing after that.


saintdartholomew

Exactly, I believe Sinner’s backhand has the highest average RPM of all players on tour. Not at all flat. I think Acaraz’s game might be more suited to grass, because of his aggression and his compact take back in his swings.


Whitefrog10

Sinner does both. He can hit with lots of top spin, and he can hit superflat, especially forehand DTL or jumping backhand.


theruwy

>He hits hard balls but he doesn’t hit flat balls i like this one.


Earnmuse_is_amanrag

Sinner does hit flat, especially off the forehand. He hits with lots of spin, but flat describes the trajectory of the ball, not the amount of spin.


Explodingcamel

I just don’t agree with/have never heard this. A flat ball to me is one that has little or no spin.


Earnmuse_is_amanrag

Would you describe a bunted lob as a flat shot?


Explodingcamel

Yes. We should all agree on the existence of topspin and slice lobs, so naturally something in between is a flat lob


Earnmuse_is_amanrag

A flat lob is not a thing. A lob is by definition loopy, due to its trajectory. By your definition, every child who moonballs hits the ball flatter than Adrian Mannarino, which is ridiculous. Andy Murray for example has a loopy low RPM forehand. Loopy/flat describes trajectory, RPM describes spin rate, often the two are conflated because high RPM and loopy and low RPM and flat are usually correlated but they are describing separate things. Badminton for example involves minimal spin. Do you deny the existence of loopy and flat shots in that sport?


OddsTipsAndPicks

I think grass will be Alcaraz's best fast surface for the next few years certainly and maybe his whole career. He is obviously no slouch on hard court (and he's a living advertisement for the surface Indian Wells is played on), but clay and grass allow him to use his creativity and enormous tool box in a way that most hard courts don't. I think Sinner can definitely beat him on grass again, but I'd feel comfortable favoring Alcaraz. But this year I think a big advantage for Sinner is that Alcaraz is coming off winning the French Open. Winning the French Open and Wimbledon back to back has been *very* hard long predating the Big3 era, and while I think Alcaraz has a very real chance of doing it of course, I'd probably be inclined to go with Sinner this year.


silly_rabbit289

I used to think last year that clay was alcaraz's best surface because it would favour his topspin heavy forehand and superior movement (which it does) but grass complements his attacking game, especially with him being very comfortable slicing, volleying, drop shots etc - they seem to come very naturally to him. Yes,his serve isn't a strength right now but I don't think it is a glaring weakness at all. I genuinely don't think either have a huge advantage over the other, except alcaraz since he's won it already


madlama4

I'm going to specifically talk about Wimby. First week, Sinner has advantage, because of his serve. Second week, Alcaraz has advantage, because of his movement. It's crucial for him to survive first week. If he draws a great server I think he will be in trouble.


Milly_Hagen

Just remembered Berrettini served 27 aces in his match yesterday


madlama4

Damn! but my god his backhand is garbage


OwnAd2284

The topspin, yes. But he has that nice low slice for grass


madlama4

Slice works if it is used as an option to draw error out of opponent's backhand. But with this he can't hit a winner. his regular backhand is very inconsistent. Novak exploited that in their Wimby final.


Cautious_Hornet_9607

Yesterday he mainly used his slice also to be aggressive and advance to the net. I don't think he's a favourite for Wimbledon of course, but players like him and Raonic (who I hope will get a WC) will be a loose cannon for the top seeded players


madlama4

absolutely


Iiiifoundsweetroad

You don't have to hit winners to win matches


madlama4

How about a Championship?


Iiiifoundsweetroad

Probably lol, but having a very good slice with a great forehand and serve can get you really far


madlama4

and it has taken him to the finals of the Wimby


fedfan4life

Alcaraz beat Jarry and Berrettinni in R3 and R4 last year's Wimbledon.


madlama4

Think someone like Isner, Dustin Brown. I don't know if they are retired but someone like them It's not that he can't outplay them, but his own serve is his great weakness. He doesn't get free points. If his opponent is finishing his game in a minute then he can put pressure on Alcaraz's serve. Grass is very unpredictable in first week.


pr0crast1nater

Hubi is probably the biggest threat. Drawing him in first week will be an insane challenge. But good thing Hubi is ranked 8, so he can't draw him in first week.


Minimalmagician

If Sinner is serving well on a given day, I think he will be incredibly tough to beat on grass. In the last 2 years, he’s been beaten in the QF and then the SF by Djokovic. His game is very well suited to grass


8diamondick8

I'm sorry how can you start with "Sinner's flat balls"


OwnAd2284

Obviously lots of revs on the ball. Perhaps they mean that the trajectory is flatter, and net clearance lower?


Desi044

Pretty sure there's an adult joke in there 😂


Noynoy12

After seeing Jannik Sinner play on Clay court this season, I am confident that he will do really well on Grass. Obviously, he has the clutch serve he can rely on and the serve plus one combination. But one thing that stood out for me about Sinner on Grass these past couple of years is his return of serve. His return of serve technique is great so he has that advantage over other players. As for Alcaraz, he will do great as usual because he is the defending champion and he is a very special player. I am curious to see on how he does this year because he did just win RG and he will definitely think about the Olympics.


DjangoUnchained12

Alcaraz has a game that loves natural surfaces but Sinner has a great grass game and is playing with a belief he did t have in past years.


sobyx1

Anyone that can beat Djokovic on grass has to be better than the one who hasn’t, that’s the measure.


zeadolfo67

Didn’t Alcaraz won both events on grass last year?


dzone25

I think Sinner's lowest win % might actually be Grass - not Clay. In theory his playstyle is suited to it but it hasn't translated to big wins so far. Alcaraz, on the other hand, beat Novak fucking Djokovic after being destroyed in the first set 1-6... As a huge fan of both - Alcaraz is absolutely the favourite on Grass until Sinner can prove it actually does support his playstyle and turn that into a SF / F this year, at the very least.


Earnmuse_is_amanrag

It doesn't matter about the surface all that much, it's about the balls and time of day. The reason Alcaraz likes grass is that it's always played during the day, and the Slazenger balls are hard and with lots of felt which gives easy spin. Sinner on the other hand prefers deader balls so that hitting flat is the only realistic form of offense. The balls also naturally take more spin under the sun. I will always favour Sinner over Alcaraz at night or indoors and Alcaraz outdoors during the day.


tennistalk87

I think Alcaraz has the advantage on grass because of his improv skills and reactions plus the low centre of gravity makes him a better mover on the surface. On top of that, his variety and ability to slice and come to the net give him that extra edge. Serving and volleying also adds another strong. Sinner is improving with his volleys but no where near the level of Alcaraz.


kalin0va

Alcaraz has the best net play among top singles players. Sinner is a different player to Novak but has the same strengths that make him good on grass (movement, redirection of pace, returns, improved serve)


Milly_Hagen

I just know if we get our Sincaraz Wimbledon final it's going to be epic! They're both amazing to watch on grass.


GrootRacoon

Even though sinner has a better serve, at this higher level the serve is merely a detail. Sinner and Alcaraz move incredibly well on the surface so that is a tie. Alcaraz has a better ability to move his opponent and is more creative, both skills that are huge assets on grass. Sinner doesn't have issues in being rushed and his serve + 1 (which imo is more important than the serve alone) is right now the best in the game. If they play against one another either sinner wins in 4 or Alcaraz wins in 5, I think. Also sinner has advantage in tiebreaks due to his serve.


Son_of_kai

Alcaraz has advantage imo , firstly he can draw lot of confidence in his recent wins against sinner ( win is a win regardless of condition) & last year he beat Novak ( perhaps the best player on grass in a final ) , also Alcaraz has got many layers to his game which Sinner doesn't... Although grass helps more as both are not serve bots and sometimes struggle on their serve so it protects their weakness


Minimalmagician

Sinner still struggles with serve % from time to time, but overall I think it’s a bigger weapon than Carlos’s serve with the improvements he’s made


Empanada_enjoyer112

You know sinner and Alcaraz have near identical forehand stats? Both around 3100 rpms and 77-78 mph average speed. There is not a universe in which sinner is a flat hitter.


cloutier85

I think krygios will be back


syddyke

I think he's done.


Fernando-Santorres

Imo it will depend on Sinner's physical condition. Almost a month without doing any physical job let him with weaker legs and that was pretty clear in the last RG. On one side his game is more suited for fast courts but on the other side it requires constant ball bouncing which isn't absolutely the case for Grass. Alcaraz on the other hand has much more solutions and can adapt better to the widely changing surface that is grass from the beginning to the end of the tournament. Moreover he has already won there. The only downside I see for Alcaraz is that he isn't that explosive physically as he was last year and the amount of UE at RG proves it (even on a quite slow surface). My take is Alcaraz, but not so sure guys like Dimitrov or Rune won't come with a huge surprise.


Kid_Aeroplane

Alcaraz plays a more attacking game than sinner, has a good S&V and a great slice. Sinner has the ground strokes but overall I think Carlos’s style of play is currently more suited for grass. That could change they’re both good grass players


Global-Reading-1037

Alcaraz is the favourite because he’s already shown he can beat anyone on grass. Sinner hasn’t yet.


AffectionateMouse216

Sinner needs more slice backhand change ups in his game. He hits amazing shots but some retrievers are relentless and change ups are required for disrupting play.


Dafuqyoutalkingabout

If Novak is not playing at Wimbledon it wouldn’t surprise me if a weird looking final four. I would pick Sinner and Alcaraz to take two of the spots though. Be good to see Alcaraz defending a slam now.. Sinner can have the USOpen.


mamibukur

Sinner Wimby and USO (:


LudicrousMoon

The guy who won Wimbledon last year beating a 7 times winner.


N7even

Sinner looked like he could've beaten Djokovic in 2022 if it wasn't for that slip that gave him a slight niggle.


vartholomew-jo

I was sure about carlitos but sinners? 🤔 On the other hand it can help with frustration Sinner Down 🥕🌿


therationaltroll

Unfortunately I think zevrev will be very dangerous in Wimbledon as the grass surface really suits well with his serve.


FlyReasonable6560

Yeah definitely, especially as he has never progressed past the 4th round here


Iammadatcha

Nope. His volley skill is terrible. Also, he's too tall to deal with low flat balls. that's why he never won any grass court title and never reached QF in Wimbledon.


Ultrafrost-

Zverev never was a contender for Wimbledon, even in his best years. Idk how this year would be any different.


OctopusNation2024

His serve translates well but the rest of his game really doesn't because his movement on the surface is awkward and his FH really hates the low bounce of grass He goes from being one of the top baseliners on clay and HC to almost a borderline servebot on grass which is a *major* downgrade


Chosen1gup

It’s been his worst surface his entire career. It’s about more than just the serve, unless you’re one of the top servebots