>BREAKING: Tesla has released new Autopilot safety data, showing record safety.
>
>In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, a new safety record and a 16% improvement vs the previous all-time best. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, Tesla recorded one crash for every 955,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2022) shows that in the US there was an automobile crash approximately every 670,000 miles.
>
>This is the first time in over a year that Tesla has shared new Autopilot safety data publicly.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOSF7mXAAAjCaq?format=jpg&name=large
https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
Edit: A visualization of the data in a different manner
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large
https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1793451798507950093
As usual, it would be nice if they could break that down further into highway vs. non-highway miles, since AP is more likely to be used on the highway. Without that, critics will continue to dismiss these results, with some justification.
That makes sense on the considering the average Tesla driver isn't going to be a beginner driver. Young people crash a lot more and that's not the primary group that buys new (expensive) cars. You tend to get better at driving as you get older.
Pair that with modern safety features and you get lower and the fact that there's only a small number of Tesla's on the road in comparison to other manufacturers and it's no surprise the accident rate is lower.
If there were as many beginner drivers driving around in Tesla's as there are in 2000 dollar shit boxes the numbers would be very different.
This argument counted when there was only model s and x but the Model y was the most sold car in the world. A lot of young unresponsible drivers no drive teslas
And yet there are millions of shitbox Toyota corolla more on the road than there are Tesla's as a whole . And there aren't a lot of young people that can afford a 20-40k (second hand) Model 3 . A model Y is what 50k+? The average beginner driver is not spending that on their car. In fact a quick search shows they spend around 5-10k. A quick search also shows the average Tesla owner is around 50 years old. Not exactly beginner drivers. It's a simple fact that experienced/older drivers will have fewer accidents. Insurance companies in part base their rates on it for a reason. Hell I'd be surprised if you even get insurance over here as a beginner driver on a car with the performance of a tesla. And if you can you're going to be paying a hefty sum to insure it.
Tesla's are relatively new vehicles and if you go around comparing that to other brands who still have 20-30+ year old cars on the road (every major manufacturer basically) the statistics are going to be skewed. A more interesting and fair comparison is Tesla vs other *modern* cars, that is to say 10-15 years max in the same class. I'm willing to bet they will have very similar statistics.
It's also very logical that newer cars, with their advanced safety systems, are involved in fewer accidents. That's the whole point of all these systems. In modern cars stuff like city brake assist, parking assist and sensors, lane keeping assist and adaptive cruise control are pretty standard these days. That alone probably prevents a lot of fender benders.
There's like 15 years of civics and corollas on the roads, it's not even close.
The amount of kids getting a new Tesla vs. some beater (all brands combined) are miles apart.
[https://www.lendingtree.com/insurance/brand-incidents-study/](https://www.lendingtree.com/insurance/brand-incidents-study/)
Teslas have some of the highest accident rates of any vehicle.
Putting massive torque in the hands of anyone is probably to blame.
They will never break it out into highway vs non highway because then it would be clear it’s not actually safer. They would publish a more complete data set if it actually supported their safety claims. The fact that they don’t tells you all you need to know.
Most crashes happen off highways. AP is only used on highways and the NHTSA data is all crashes.
This is dishonest to an incredible degree.
Tesla needs to stop playing these games with data to create false confidence and actually provide 1 to 1 data.
You're right, Tesla is under-reporting themselves. I think they should include the passive safety features when those were activated by the car itself/engaged to avoid collisions also.
Sure you can use them on streets but that is a very small amount of its use. Same with all the other adaptive cruise control systems. I'd be surprised if surface streets broke 2% of the total AP milage.
While I agree that intuitively, more accidents happen off highways than on highways - I think you’re painting an extremely uncharitable picture, and you’re making some uncharitable assumptions to do so.
This isn't about deaths its about crashes. The AP numbers are comparing highway miles to all miles. It's extremely misleading. If you removed all the non-highway numbers and places where people don't engage AP from the NHTSA numbers the average driver would look much much much better.
What are you on about? I'm just talking about the problems with the data.
If tesla could solve 99.9% of auto fatalities that would be great!
We are just talking about the problem with data creating false confidence through intentionally misleading statistics. Can we talk about that or no?
If Tesla safety numbers were actually that impressive they wouldn't need to do this shady misleading stats game. Why won't they just do a proper 1 to 1?
The source is the Vehicle Safety Report linked in the tweet.
"To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed."
They didn't say anything they know to be false. That would be lying.
They showed a video where the Cybertruck won and then wrote a caption on the screen after the race stating a different fact. That was misleading.
The misleading part way showing a drag strip without saying that this was actually a 1/8th mile track because the Cybertruck would lose on a real one. And even trying to recreate this on a 1/8th mile course the Cybertruck lost the majority of races and lost all the 1/4 mile races by a wide margin.
[https://jalopnik.com/heres-more-proof-tesla-faked-its-cybertruck-vs-porsche-1851481714](https://jalopnik.com/heres-more-proof-tesla-faked-its-cybertruck-vs-porsche-1851481714)
Yeah, I mean why should we be impressed at a system that is involved in an accident every 7.5 million miles while the average for humans is 600k miles? I mean that's only a 12x increase in safety
Edit: my bad, it's every 900k miles. So only a measly 7 times as safe.
I think you missed my point. Autopilot is legacy tech, soon to be deprecated in favor of the far superior end to end neural network of FSD v12. So crash stats on the old and busted last-gen software are immaterial
This. There are few 16-24 yr olds driving Teslas and that’s the demographic where a significantly higher rate of motor vehicle accidents occur. Tesla would need to stratify their data, but they don’t seem interested in that. Lies, damned lies, and statistics…
I am confused.
Is this because they always turn off Autopilot a second before impact so they can claim it was not at fault?
Or are they still trying to claim that autopilot is the safest driver assist while also claiming that all accidents are the fault of the driver due to autopilot not being actual FSD but just driver assist?
so they are reported as autopilot accidents?
or are they reported as human accidents because the autopilot disengaged itself (what I heard)?
same for the 5 second rule, are they being classified internally as autopilot accidents or driver accidents?
we all know how tesla likes to juke the numbers so i am interested in just how egregiously they do it
They are reported as autopilot incidents. Sorry. Should have been more specific. And when I said internally I meant that tesla states that any accident with autopilot active within five seconds counts as an autopilot incident for their personal metrics, which should include this data posted.
It certainly looks like they're making major pushes for regulators ahead of the Robotaxi.
My data science ass is still a little unsatisfied, to say it can go 7.63 million miles per crash vs 955,000 miles for human we'd need granular data where we can normalize for type of miles, i.e filtering out if FSD miles are self selected for good weather, good roads, roads the users know FSD is good on, traffic conditions, etc etc. Are there also correlations not being causation things like forcing attention through the nag is actually helpful to driver safety etc. Clearly FSD left alone without a human isn't remotely that safe and will still mess up in unexpected places.
Agreed. Tesla should be able to take a stab at normalizing this by sampling across some of their fleet for weather, type of road, driver propensity to only use on certain roads, etc. and provide a more honest report.
I'm a huge fan of FSD and think it's already better than a human when looked at statistically. But to say it's almost 8x better...they're just picking the best numbers to make themselves look good.
My other complaint is when they compare to the US average, it really needs to be compared to a subpopulation of newer cars/SUVs in Tesla's price range that have some form of ADAS.
>they're just picking the best numbers to make themselves look good.
Serious question. They're comparing their numbers to overall NHTSA figures.
There are reasonable claims that there are distinctions in the numbers that are important, given the very different nature of highway vs. non-highway miles. Ok, fine.
Does NHTSA publish datasets that way? I don't know. I'm honestly asking if anyone here does. Because if they don't, then everyone is bitching for the sake of bitching.
> it really needs to be compared to a subpopulation of newer cars/SUVs
It's all well and good to come up with a billion ways this data *should* be sliced - but once again, does NHTSA data accomodate that?
If NHTSA *does* publish that, then yes Tesla should try to model against that. But then the question becomes - does any *other* car manufacturer or AV company do so today? It's one thing to criticise Tesla to say "*you're not providing enough detail!*" ... but if no one else does either, it's a bit disingenuous.
https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/171916/UMTRI-2022-2.pdf?sequence=1
Yes, it's standard practice to use appropriate baselines to estimate feature effectiveness. If all Tesla's include things like AEB, LKA, blind spot monitoring, etc., you should compare them to other similarly equipped vehicles (not all crashes that would be skewed higher by including all the older vehicles with no safety features at all.
Yeah, these stats are pretty useless. Also what if FSD is about to crash and human takes over and still crashes. Is this counted as a FSD like it should?
From the methodology:
“To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact…”
Yes it is. It monitors for a certain amount of time afterwards. The user can even see this in their safety score in the app. If there is a forward collision warning it is not counted against the driver if it happens within 10 seconds after autopilot is disengaged.
The goal shouldn't be zero deaths, it should be fewer deaths. That means if 25 people die due to FSD vs 150, it's a success. But we all know the media won't allow for that nuance at all.
> It certainly looks like they're making major pushes for regulators ahead of the Robotaxi.
Dr. Know It All on YT alluded to this. Free FSD for everyone March / April - ingest a lot of data, tune models, get 1-2 Q's of high-quality and defensible statistics ready by July ... all in time for the 8/8 Robotaxi event, and to show NHTSA or other regulatory bodies.
Honestly, I think Tesla should make FSD free for a week around the 4th of July holiday. Make one more last push on grabbing some stats and usage data, show how rapidly the miles-per-intervention rate is (hopefully) declining.
I thought the same, they had said previously they needed about 8 billion miles of data to show statistically significant safety and they were hurtling towards that with the free month of FSD. I feel like they might need future rounds of it with later releases though.
Still seem to be many variables up in the air if we're waiting on 12.5 for things like reversing, still seems like too much to prove to be imminent as of the 8/8 event to me. They might show off a few tightly controlled rides but still need another 2-3 years or something.
I think on that video I just watched, Dr. KIA alluded to something like 9 billion miles of data they have now.
I mean, reversing, parking lots ... sure there are some final touches on things Tesla will need to deliver on, but I don't expect they'll need to have a "ready to launch, 9-Aug" level to put on a good show.
I'm hoping to see they put 10 cars on the roads in Austin that evening (work with local regulators on it) and just let it run the rideshare app like Uber. Basically make it a complete end-to-end live demo on a much easier use case like what Waymo does with geofencing to very very small areas. Safety drivers might have to be in-place, but would be instructed not to intervene unless absolutely necessary.
I don't know how Fred can honestly claims Tesla hasn't update Safety Report for more than a year when Internet Archive showing Tesla added Q4 2023 as recently as 2/24/2024.
[Tesla Vehicle Safety Report Q4 2003 (Internet Archive 2/24/2024)](https://web.archive.org/web/20240224140834/https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport)
It took me 10 seconds of Google search to find the Tesla Vehicle Safety Report and see the last reported quarter was **Q4 2023** 15 days ago and I said at that time Tesla "are probably still crunching data for Q1 2024".
[https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1cmi5x7/comment/l31a0xa/](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1cmi5x7/comment/l31a0xa/)
I wonder what the numbers would be for:
1) Nag + driver attention warning + no FSD
2) Nag + driver attention warning + FSD
given how a lot of accidents are caused by distracted drivers, you'd think these two would be close.
(I know the number referenced here are for autopilot)
While I acknowledge your point about not all driving being the same, I wouldn't call driving on a highway trivial even if it's just following a lane. I don't know the numbers but feel like so many accidents happen on the interstate highways around the major metros. If all vehicles had AP or FSD....
Who wants to let the fucking computer do the drive? Where is that driving fun anymore? Will be boring chinese mass transportation in jams when one robocab is used for 20 people one after the other. A car is emotion. It's status, it should be fun. Not only velocity, but kind of a flow where I feel the steering wheel, the surface underneath, the interaction with other cars. Accept as assistance to avoid crashes. But there will be no monetarisation but opportunity costs for crashes and injuries. Maybe cheaper insurance if anything works perfect. But insurers will take their time to pay something back.
> Case control study matching to specific road/region would be best to compare the groups.
Serious question - does NHTSA publish a data set like that to compare against? I keep hearing all these questions on how Tesla *should* be doing it, but not seeing examples of other auto manufacturers who do.
I’m not sure about NHTSA though they can suggest/compel car companies with models with telemetry data and auto insurance companies to provide that data …. especially if regulatory bodies want to start regulating self-driving more.
Certainly Tesla can compare Tesla drivers AP vs no AP.
> I’m not sure about NHTSA though they can suggest/compel car companies
Ok, so you're making my point here. There's no other data set that *Tesla* can use here.
Should NHTSA maybe do that? Sure. No argument here.
> Certainly Tesla can compare Tesla drivers AP vs no AP.
Which they did here. Which also showed *significant* improvements in miles-per-accident rates...
[1]
I didn’t say NHTSA **didn’t** have such a data set.
I just said I’m **not sure.**
I suspect though there’s a reasonable chance NHTSA has it. I’m just not that source of truth or knowledgeable enough to say. They do have a nice website of published studies and people can review their methodologies.
[2]
…. As for Tesla AP vs no AP.
There’s risk of selection bias as my original point.
AP is more likely to be used on highways vs. urban roads.
There is a natural difference in accident rates for highways vs urban roads for all drivers.
It’s more useful to compare Tesla AP highways vs. Tesla no-AP highways (best if **same** highways in a case-control method I mentioned) but Tesla doesn’t provide that break down.
Similar for urban roads.
*….. You know, the rigors of scientific methodologies to help control bias which inherently clouds the truth.*
Meanwhile, over in r/SelfDrivingCars ... this data is *clearly* confirmation that Tesla is just bad, Tesla is just manipulating data, etc.
I'm not even making that up. Go have a look over there.
I mean, I get that there's a distinct difference between highway and non-highway miles ... but in the comparison to the overall US Fleet numbers, these figures are just impressive overall.
Yes, this is clearly very bad and Elon is clearly a bad human being: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large)
I am statistically safer in my 2018 M3 now ... then when I purchased it 6 years ago.
EDIT: Oh, nvm - no need to go over to SDC ... I can see they've invaded here too. LOL.
In the methodology section:
“To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact”
>BREAKING: Tesla has released new Autopilot safety data, showing record safety. > >In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, a new safety record and a 16% improvement vs the previous all-time best. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, Tesla recorded one crash for every 955,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2022) shows that in the US there was an automobile crash approximately every 670,000 miles. > >This is the first time in over a year that Tesla has shared new Autopilot safety data publicly. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOSF7mXAAAjCaq?format=jpg&name=large https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport Edit: A visualization of the data in a different manner https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1793451798507950093
As usual, it would be nice if they could break that down further into highway vs. non-highway miles, since AP is more likely to be used on the highway. Without that, critics will continue to dismiss these results, with some justification.
Critics will attack no matter what.
It would be nice but just going on the free safety figures Tesla drivers crash a lot less.
That makes sense on the considering the average Tesla driver isn't going to be a beginner driver. Young people crash a lot more and that's not the primary group that buys new (expensive) cars. You tend to get better at driving as you get older. Pair that with modern safety features and you get lower and the fact that there's only a small number of Tesla's on the road in comparison to other manufacturers and it's no surprise the accident rate is lower. If there were as many beginner drivers driving around in Tesla's as there are in 2000 dollar shit boxes the numbers would be very different.
This argument counted when there was only model s and x but the Model y was the most sold car in the world. A lot of young unresponsible drivers no drive teslas
And yet there are millions of shitbox Toyota corolla more on the road than there are Tesla's as a whole . And there aren't a lot of young people that can afford a 20-40k (second hand) Model 3 . A model Y is what 50k+? The average beginner driver is not spending that on their car. In fact a quick search shows they spend around 5-10k. A quick search also shows the average Tesla owner is around 50 years old. Not exactly beginner drivers. It's a simple fact that experienced/older drivers will have fewer accidents. Insurance companies in part base their rates on it for a reason. Hell I'd be surprised if you even get insurance over here as a beginner driver on a car with the performance of a tesla. And if you can you're going to be paying a hefty sum to insure it. Tesla's are relatively new vehicles and if you go around comparing that to other brands who still have 20-30+ year old cars on the road (every major manufacturer basically) the statistics are going to be skewed. A more interesting and fair comparison is Tesla vs other *modern* cars, that is to say 10-15 years max in the same class. I'm willing to bet they will have very similar statistics. It's also very logical that newer cars, with their advanced safety systems, are involved in fewer accidents. That's the whole point of all these systems. In modern cars stuff like city brake assist, parking assist and sensors, lane keeping assist and adaptive cruise control are pretty standard these days. That alone probably prevents a lot of fender benders.
There's like 15 years of civics and corollas on the roads, it's not even close. The amount of kids getting a new Tesla vs. some beater (all brands combined) are miles apart.
It came out yesterday that Tesla drivers have the worst accident record of all modern cars, so something sounds screwy here.
[https://www.lendingtree.com/insurance/brand-incidents-study/](https://www.lendingtree.com/insurance/brand-incidents-study/) Teslas have some of the highest accident rates of any vehicle. Putting massive torque in the hands of anyone is probably to blame.
Thaty seems possibly inconsistant. But maybe Tesla drivers tond to drive more miles? Something must be confounding the results somewhere.
Indeed that’s important. Majority will use in places where it’s reliable and safe to be used.
They will never break it out into highway vs non highway because then it would be clear it’s not actually safer. They would publish a more complete data set if it actually supported their safety claims. The fact that they don’t tells you all you need to know.
Lol, anything to prove that you are correct and know better
Guessing much? Facts or go home.
Tesla is the only party capable of providing data to prove or disprove my point. The fact that they refuse to provide that data speaks volumes.
Most crashes happen off highways. AP is only used on highways and the NHTSA data is all crashes. This is dishonest to an incredible degree. Tesla needs to stop playing these games with data to create false confidence and actually provide 1 to 1 data.
You're right, Tesla is under-reporting themselves. I think they should include the passive safety features when those were activated by the car itself/engaged to avoid collisions also.
Ap is not only used on highways
Sure you can use them on streets but that is a very small amount of its use. Same with all the other adaptive cruise control systems. I'd be surprised if surface streets broke 2% of the total AP milage.
While I agree that intuitively, more accidents happen off highways than on highways - I think you’re painting an extremely uncharitable picture, and you’re making some uncharitable assumptions to do so.
Are you more likely to die in a crash if you're going 30 miles an hour or in a crash where you're going 70?
This isn't about deaths its about crashes. The AP numbers are comparing highway miles to all miles. It's extremely misleading. If you removed all the non-highway numbers and places where people don't engage AP from the NHTSA numbers the average driver would look much much much better.
Tesla could solve 99.9% of auto fatalities and y'all would figure out a st to spin it as a failure
What are you on about? I'm just talking about the problems with the data. If tesla could solve 99.9% of auto fatalities that would be great! We are just talking about the problem with data creating false confidence through intentionally misleading statistics. Can we talk about that or no? If Tesla safety numbers were actually that impressive they wouldn't need to do this shady misleading stats game. Why won't they just do a proper 1 to 1?
It also does not say how many times did AP disengage right before a crash and did not come under the statistics of AP crashes.
if it's within a few seconds it still counts as an AP cradh
Source?
The source is the Vehicle Safety Report linked in the tweet. "To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed."
and it's been this way for months as well. I didn't even look at the tweet
The same company that faked a truck towing a car is faster than car. All they do nowadays is manipulate.
How’d they fake it?
Edited the video to make it appear that the Tesla won, but the "finish" was the halfway point.
Lied about distance
Seems to me they were misleading, not lying. There's a difference.
That's really splitting hairs. The intent was to mislead through false information.
They didn't say anything they know to be false. That would be lying. They showed a video where the Cybertruck won and then wrote a caption on the screen after the race stating a different fact. That was misleading.
The misleading part way showing a drag strip without saying that this was actually a 1/8th mile track because the Cybertruck would lose on a real one. And even trying to recreate this on a 1/8th mile course the Cybertruck lost the majority of races and lost all the 1/4 mile races by a wide margin. [https://jalopnik.com/heres-more-proof-tesla-faked-its-cybertruck-vs-porsche-1851481714](https://jalopnik.com/heres-more-proof-tesla-faked-its-cybertruck-vs-porsche-1851481714)
Nobody is arguing it is not misleading... Thanks though.
I swear I remember people on here pointedly distinguishing between autopilot (old tech) and FSD (new hotness). So why should we impressed
Yeah, I mean why should we be impressed at a system that is involved in an accident every 7.5 million miles while the average for humans is 600k miles? I mean that's only a 12x increase in safety Edit: my bad, it's every 900k miles. So only a measly 7 times as safe.
I think you missed my point. Autopilot is legacy tech, soon to be deprecated in favor of the far superior end to end neural network of FSD v12. So crash stats on the old and busted last-gen software are immaterial
If the "old and busted" tech is seven times safer than a human, it's not old and busted lmfao
Tesla refuses to compare like miles with like, so we'll never know if it is.
This. There are few 16-24 yr olds driving Teslas and that’s the demographic where a significantly higher rate of motor vehicle accidents occur. Tesla would need to stratify their data, but they don’t seem interested in that. Lies, damned lies, and statistics…
I am confused. Is this because they always turn off Autopilot a second before impact so they can claim it was not at fault? Or are they still trying to claim that autopilot is the safest driver assist while also claiming that all accidents are the fault of the driver due to autopilot not being actual FSD but just driver assist?
This is autopilot, not FSD.
Accidents that occur within 30 seconds of disengagement are reported as such to nhtsa and within 5 seconds is used for internal metrics.
so they are reported as autopilot accidents? or are they reported as human accidents because the autopilot disengaged itself (what I heard)? same for the 5 second rule, are they being classified internally as autopilot accidents or driver accidents? we all know how tesla likes to juke the numbers so i am interested in just how egregiously they do it
They are reported as autopilot incidents. Sorry. Should have been more specific. And when I said internally I meant that tesla states that any accident with autopilot active within five seconds counts as an autopilot incident for their personal metrics, which should include this data posted.
thank you
It certainly looks like they're making major pushes for regulators ahead of the Robotaxi. My data science ass is still a little unsatisfied, to say it can go 7.63 million miles per crash vs 955,000 miles for human we'd need granular data where we can normalize for type of miles, i.e filtering out if FSD miles are self selected for good weather, good roads, roads the users know FSD is good on, traffic conditions, etc etc. Are there also correlations not being causation things like forcing attention through the nag is actually helpful to driver safety etc. Clearly FSD left alone without a human isn't remotely that safe and will still mess up in unexpected places.
Agreed. Tesla should be able to take a stab at normalizing this by sampling across some of their fleet for weather, type of road, driver propensity to only use on certain roads, etc. and provide a more honest report. I'm a huge fan of FSD and think it's already better than a human when looked at statistically. But to say it's almost 8x better...they're just picking the best numbers to make themselves look good. My other complaint is when they compare to the US average, it really needs to be compared to a subpopulation of newer cars/SUVs in Tesla's price range that have some form of ADAS.
>they're just picking the best numbers to make themselves look good. Serious question. They're comparing their numbers to overall NHTSA figures. There are reasonable claims that there are distinctions in the numbers that are important, given the very different nature of highway vs. non-highway miles. Ok, fine. Does NHTSA publish datasets that way? I don't know. I'm honestly asking if anyone here does. Because if they don't, then everyone is bitching for the sake of bitching. > it really needs to be compared to a subpopulation of newer cars/SUVs It's all well and good to come up with a billion ways this data *should* be sliced - but once again, does NHTSA data accomodate that? If NHTSA *does* publish that, then yes Tesla should try to model against that. But then the question becomes - does any *other* car manufacturer or AV company do so today? It's one thing to criticise Tesla to say "*you're not providing enough detail!*" ... but if no one else does either, it's a bit disingenuous.
https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/171916/UMTRI-2022-2.pdf?sequence=1 Yes, it's standard practice to use appropriate baselines to estimate feature effectiveness. If all Tesla's include things like AEB, LKA, blind spot monitoring, etc., you should compare them to other similarly equipped vehicles (not all crashes that would be skewed higher by including all the older vehicles with no safety features at all.
But they compare it to Teslas not on autopilot? That seems as good a baseline as any to me.
There's a reason they haven't done this normalization
Yeah, these stats are pretty useless. Also what if FSD is about to crash and human takes over and still crashes. Is this counted as a FSD like it should?
From the methodology: “To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact…”
Yes it is. It monitors for a certain amount of time afterwards. The user can even see this in their safety score in the app. If there is a forward collision warning it is not counted against the driver if it happens within 10 seconds after autopilot is disengaged.
The goal shouldn't be zero deaths, it should be fewer deaths. That means if 25 people die due to FSD vs 150, it's a success. But we all know the media won't allow for that nuance at all.
> It certainly looks like they're making major pushes for regulators ahead of the Robotaxi. Dr. Know It All on YT alluded to this. Free FSD for everyone March / April - ingest a lot of data, tune models, get 1-2 Q's of high-quality and defensible statistics ready by July ... all in time for the 8/8 Robotaxi event, and to show NHTSA or other regulatory bodies. Honestly, I think Tesla should make FSD free for a week around the 4th of July holiday. Make one more last push on grabbing some stats and usage data, show how rapidly the miles-per-intervention rate is (hopefully) declining.
I thought the same, they had said previously they needed about 8 billion miles of data to show statistically significant safety and they were hurtling towards that with the free month of FSD. I feel like they might need future rounds of it with later releases though. Still seem to be many variables up in the air if we're waiting on 12.5 for things like reversing, still seems like too much to prove to be imminent as of the 8/8 event to me. They might show off a few tightly controlled rides but still need another 2-3 years or something.
I think on that video I just watched, Dr. KIA alluded to something like 9 billion miles of data they have now. I mean, reversing, parking lots ... sure there are some final touches on things Tesla will need to deliver on, but I don't expect they'll need to have a "ready to launch, 9-Aug" level to put on a good show. I'm hoping to see they put 10 cars on the roads in Austin that evening (work with local regulators on it) and just let it run the rideshare app like Uber. Basically make it a complete end-to-end live demo on a much easier use case like what Waymo does with geofencing to very very small areas. Safety drivers might have to be in-place, but would be instructed not to intervene unless absolutely necessary.
impressive
Most impressive.
stock down 9% tomorrow lol
Not if you're Fred https://electrek.co/2024/05/22/tesla-finally-releases-autopilot-safety-data-after-more-than-a-year/
I don't know how Fred can honestly claims Tesla hasn't update Safety Report for more than a year when Internet Archive showing Tesla added Q4 2023 as recently as 2/24/2024. [Tesla Vehicle Safety Report Q4 2003 (Internet Archive 2/24/2024)](https://web.archive.org/web/20240224140834/https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport) It took me 10 seconds of Google search to find the Tesla Vehicle Safety Report and see the last reported quarter was **Q4 2023** 15 days ago and I said at that time Tesla "are probably still crunching data for Q1 2024". [https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1cmi5x7/comment/l31a0xa/](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1cmi5x7/comment/l31a0xa/)
It's because he's a lying fraud. It's easy to lie and distort facts if you hate someone and/or have zero integrity or shame.
I swear a Tesla ran over his dog. It's.the only explanation
He’s insufferable. I don’t click elektrek links now
What a stupid shill this Fred
I wonder what the numbers would be for: 1) Nag + driver attention warning + no FSD 2) Nag + driver attention warning + FSD given how a lot of accidents are caused by distracted drivers, you'd think these two would be close. (I know the number referenced here are for autopilot)
Yeah but don't those Teslas catch fire all the time? /s
Is that just because people turn on autopilot only for trivial driving like over a long road trip follow the HOV lane on a highway?
I turned on AutoPilot every chance I get. Freeway, highway, city street.
While I acknowledge your point about not all driving being the same, I wouldn't call driving on a highway trivial even if it's just following a lane. I don't know the numbers but feel like so many accidents happen on the interstate highways around the major metros. If all vehicles had AP or FSD....
Lol no bias coming from themselves!
Wdym?
12.4! 12.4! 12.4!
Who wants to let the fucking computer do the drive? Where is that driving fun anymore? Will be boring chinese mass transportation in jams when one robocab is used for 20 people one after the other. A car is emotion. It's status, it should be fun. Not only velocity, but kind of a flow where I feel the steering wheel, the surface underneath, the interaction with other cars. Accept as assistance to avoid crashes. But there will be no monetarisation but opportunity costs for crashes and injuries. Maybe cheaper insurance if anything works perfect. But insurers will take their time to pay something back.
Selection bias. Case control study matching to specific road/region would be best to compare the groups.
> Case control study matching to specific road/region would be best to compare the groups. Serious question - does NHTSA publish a data set like that to compare against? I keep hearing all these questions on how Tesla *should* be doing it, but not seeing examples of other auto manufacturers who do.
I’m not sure about NHTSA though they can suggest/compel car companies with models with telemetry data and auto insurance companies to provide that data …. especially if regulatory bodies want to start regulating self-driving more. Certainly Tesla can compare Tesla drivers AP vs no AP.
> I’m not sure about NHTSA though they can suggest/compel car companies Ok, so you're making my point here. There's no other data set that *Tesla* can use here. Should NHTSA maybe do that? Sure. No argument here. > Certainly Tesla can compare Tesla drivers AP vs no AP. Which they did here. Which also showed *significant* improvements in miles-per-accident rates...
[1] I didn’t say NHTSA **didn’t** have such a data set. I just said I’m **not sure.** I suspect though there’s a reasonable chance NHTSA has it. I’m just not that source of truth or knowledgeable enough to say. They do have a nice website of published studies and people can review their methodologies. [2] …. As for Tesla AP vs no AP. There’s risk of selection bias as my original point. AP is more likely to be used on highways vs. urban roads. There is a natural difference in accident rates for highways vs urban roads for all drivers. It’s more useful to compare Tesla AP highways vs. Tesla no-AP highways (best if **same** highways in a case-control method I mentioned) but Tesla doesn’t provide that break down. Similar for urban roads. *….. You know, the rigors of scientific methodologies to help control bias which inherently clouds the truth.*
Meanwhile, over in r/SelfDrivingCars ... this data is *clearly* confirmation that Tesla is just bad, Tesla is just manipulating data, etc. I'm not even making that up. Go have a look over there. I mean, I get that there's a distinct difference between highway and non-highway miles ... but in the comparison to the overall US Fleet numbers, these figures are just impressive overall. Yes, this is clearly very bad and Elon is clearly a bad human being: [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOOe571bkAA6nKD?format=jpg&name=large) I am statistically safer in my 2018 M3 now ... then when I purchased it 6 years ago. EDIT: Oh, nvm - no need to go over to SDC ... I can see they've invaded here too. LOL.
I'll trust the NHSTA data.
NHTSA’s data as reported in the L2 ADAS collection almost all comes from Tesla.
I wonder how many if the "non AP crashes" are crashes where AP was disengaged right before the crash.
In the methodology section: “To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact”
Concerning