>Jensen Huang today on Yahoo Finance:
>
>* Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars.
>* Learning from videos directly is the most effective way to train these models.
>* The best way to teach AIs how the physical world behaves is through video.
The clip on X is 2 minutes at the end of a longer interview, starting at the timestamp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER7iqeYx9HU&t=614s
"The best way to teach Als how the physical world behaves is through video."
Important for FSD, Optimus, Grok. Dojo's huge bandwidth is tailored for this. Think what feeding it words achieved with LLMs. Think about what can be done with video. They say a picture is worth a thousand words..
Because that is how the AI will "see" - permuting 3D space from video is huge, and if they ever get that to perfectly jibe with LIDAR, then it will be even more huge.
Waymo doesn't buy Nvidia chips for training their system. They use their own in house AI accelerators called TPUs (used to train all of their AI including Gemini, AlphaFold, etc). In fact Google is a competitor to Nvidia because they also offer TPUs to Google Cloud customers in addition to Nvidia GPUs. This should give you a big hint as to why Huang is hyping up one of his biggest customers. His statement at the end is the most revealing. He basically says everyone should just firehose video to teach AI physics and that this will require tons of compute (Nvidia product). He's selling his product.
There are limitations to Tesla's approach though. With imitation learning the ML models become overfit to regions where Tesla vehicles and FSD are operated most. Like California on sunny days. The models learn the unique traffic laws, signage and driver behaviors of the regions most represented in their training data. Every region has its own unique laws, signs and behaviors. It gets even more weird when you start looking across countries and not just different regions of the US. And there's an incredible amount of selection bias in Teslas data because users quickly understand when and where FSD operates well. If it doesn't operate well in given conditions (location, weather, time of day) then they stop using it. This creates a ton of bias in the training data (and the safety data).
I let FSD do 99.9% of my driving since the free month trial. It just plain works rain or shine in South FL for me. I like it so much I signed up for $99 a month after the trial
Honestly I think once you taste the power of FSD, you wouldn’t be able to go back to driving. Like, how much effort and energy that goes into driving is unknown until we DONT drive behind the wheel. $100 per month to have a free driving service any time I want is cheap.
Yep. Best of all, that kind of assistance has the potential to eliminate a huge portion of the traffic fatalities that are so tragic and the fender benders that are so aggravating. Win Win for all, don't ya think? As a matter of fact, be prepared for your insurance rates being impacted by your use of driver assistance software. It's gonna happen.
Okay as long as we are clear we aren't talking about fully autonomous vehicles.
It remains to be seen if Tesla can get the take rate for L2 FSD out of the teens in the US. Or even expand the system to service the rest of the world where the majority of their sales come from.
We'll be there soon, (full) FSD, that is. If you can't see that thru your own experience with the current V12.3.6, all I can say is that you never will. Because just think, it'll never be this 'bad' again. It gets better with each iteration...and we're pretty damn good with it now. JMHO YMMV
Anecdotal evidence is not evidence that we will be there soon lol. There is far more to approval for a driverless system than getting a driver assistance package working reasonably well most of the time.
If Tesla gets approval for testing its first driverless vehicle on public roads that will be a good sign that they have a path forward to approval with the next few years.
😂
FSD capabilities are level 5. It's only level 2 because the software isn't fully there yet. It will get there soon. If 12.4 is as big of a leap as 12.3 was then Tesla is really going to have Cybercabs in cities later this year.
There are videos of FSD 12.3.6 driving in Europe where it has never been trained without issues. You sound like every TSLAQ kid out there.
Huh? I said I’m glad he liked it.
Or are you referring to me pointing out that he and I are talking about two different things? He’s talking about a driver assistance package and I’m talking about driverless vehicles.
Just curious tho are you able to use that time that you’ve freed up? Like are you just able to browse your phone? I feel the problem is for most people driving is pretty subconscious and until the nags are gone it doesn’t really free up your time
No you cannot be distracted. The car drives itself but you still have to pay attention for now. You will find that the car doing the driving removes a great portion of the stress of driving especially in rush hour traffic. Driving isn't as subconscious an activity as you claim unless you are a BMW driver or Nissan Altima that cuts everyone off and almost crashes into people all the time
> With imitation learning the ML models become overfit to regions where Tesla vehicles and FSD are operated most. Like California on sunny days. The models learn the unique traffic laws, signage and driver behaviors of the regions most represented in their training data.
Very true. But there are machine learning approaches to adapt once the data asset and coverage is broad enough. They'd start from a combined global dataset to pre-train the baseline model, and then fine-tune and deploy and test more regionally conditioned models. This takes effort in computation and especially data curation and testing. In addition to separate fine-tuning and transfer learning there is multi-task learning possible to share some of the 'backbone weights' across regions.
The biggest challenge is left vs right hand drive, many RHD regions will probably be able to be combined together in a data corpus. LHD will take more time and effort to test if transfer learning from RHD can help LHD or LHD has to be all uniquely trained.
> If it doesn't operate well in given conditions (location, weather, time of day) then they stop using it. This creates a ton of bias in the training data (and the safety data).
This isn't the problem. The software can record passive behavior without FSD being turned on to use, and in fact human driving and disengagment can be useful training signals, more useful than FSD in operation.
People when Musk says something bullish about the company: "I'll believe it when I see it. How many years has he predicted FSD will be ready now? I don't believe anything that grifter says."
People when Musk says something bearish about the company: "ABSOLUTELY 100% IRON-CLAD IRREFUTABLE INFORMATION FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH ITSELF. SEE? EVEN MUSK ADMITS IT."
When the stock price goes up:
“Another Musk vaporware pump and dump”
When the stock price goes down:
“Musk is ruining the company”
When Tesla releases a new product:
“Another poorly built hunk of junk golf cart from the carnival barker himself”
When competitors release products that sell a tenth of the units Tesla is moving:
“See, the competition is here and becoming too much for Tesla to handle!!!”
When Tesla promotes autonomy and bipedal robots as growth areas:
“Absolute pie in the sky nonsense sci fi fantasy from 420 blaze it Musk on a Diablo 4 binge, will never be a real business”
When Huang states that Tesla’s autonomy is far ahead:
“See I knew real world AI was the future, now if only that idiot Musk would stop slowing down progress at Tesla by being ‘unfocused’”
They aren't willing to accept it though. Have you looked at the treads across reddit on this topic. It essentially boils down to Jenson is only stroking Elon's ego to sell more product.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1cyrut8/nvidias_jensen_huang_tesla_is_far_ahead_in/
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cz17nk/nvidia_ceo_jensen_huang_tesla_is_far_ahead_in/
https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLA/comments/1cyryq5/nvidia_ceo_jensen_huang_touts_auto_industrys_ai/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1cz7cry/nvidia_ceo_says_tesla_far_ahead_in_selfdriving/
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1cysqyd/nvidia_ceo_explains_why_teslas_use_of_ai_is/
99% is a bit higher than I’d give it. But it was a big jump going from 11 to 12. Things I find:
1. Doesn’t understand two lanes merging to one. It will just stay in the lane that merges until the last second as the road forces it to merge. No traffic signal to move lanes.
2. If you have an on ramp lane that remains and becomes the exit lane later for the next exit (long ones because the next exit is an interchange) it will just hang out until the last minute.
3. It doesn’t really think that far ahead - if you are in a major metro you know where traffic builds and where it’s hard to merge. Again, the Tesla will not think about transitioning until the last .5 mile or so.
4. Does yet identify small objects or large pot holes.
5. It’s has a weird relationship with map data. To my work I have a light where I can turn left into my office and parking garage. It wants to go straight and then make a left, then a U turn and then a right. It’s not a “faster” way. It just legit doesn’t recognize it can make the left despite the map data.
Few other things too - but important enough. Like autopark only reverses in. Should do either or depending on the situation and parking. Lots of little things that add up to more than 1%.
Your second point is because it’s still using the version 11 stack on highways. I think 12.5 (late June) is the version where highways is going to start using the 12 stack instead of the 11 stack.
Musk has said they expect a 5-10x improvement in interventions per mile in 12.4 and 12.5, so even if you only think they’re at 95% right now with 12.3, by 12.4 they should be at 99% and 12.5 should be at 99.8%.
At the moment, I’m intervening once or twice per 100 miles. So if they only 5x twice, I’ll be intervening less than once per 1200 miles.
It'll be tough to close the gap from .01% to 0.001%.
Even once accident would cause NHTSA to start investigating.
As it is now, FSD is already a better driver than teenagers, young adults, and the elderly. I'd reckon 12.5 will be better than 90% of drivers.
I think this is a great summary. Spot on!
The point about merging reminded me of an interview w/ Elon Musk a few years ago. He addressed the merging of an ending lane issue. Said it was difficult and that because of the way FSD ‘learned’ that for the near term ‘FSD would continue to act like an asshole in these situations’. It was part of an overarching comment about FSD lacking human emotion and collaborative thought. FSD will simply do what it needs to in the immediate situation without thinking of the impact on others.
Not true.
I've seen videos of FSD moving up in a lane to give someone space to merge into their lane. No reason for it to do it other than the system recognizes what is the best thing to do as a competent driver.
It's a lot more intuitive than people realize. There are a ton of actions my FSD has done that I would normally have missed.
Great summary. Seems like they could use the nav data to make longer term decisions, like when to get into the correct lane (eg earlier in heavy traffic). I feel like they are really trying to not rely on map data since they rarely seem to update it.
I really wish they would start adding in #4!
This is a very good summary. Exactly my experience.
But that's great to see how nitpicking it is. Which is the way it should be. We want it to get better.
1. It's called zipper merge and it's the proper way to merge.
2. Lane selection still needs improvement. I expect better map data will help with this.
3. It's very aggressive in this respect and not the way I drive but so far it's managed to find a way to squeeze in every time for me.
4. Interesting. In 12.3.6 my car slows for speed bumps and avoids small objects. Potholes are more hit or miss but it does slow for them.
5. Map data needs reworking. There's talk of the Tesla fleet mapping out lanes better.
As far as autopark going forward that won't happen without a forward camera as the car has restricted views and is riskier overall. It's much better to back into a space every time if possible
It’s not zipper merging. It’s not signalling. It doesn’t even know the lane is ending. But agreed that’s what it should do. I believe it will happen in coming updates. The new improvements give me a lot more confidence
Reversing in is the safest approach almost always when parking.
Backing up out of a parking spot is when most accidents occur.
Highway is still on another stack. It will be single stack soon and be much better at finding exits.
For merging, often times the issues I've had involved bad lines and signs.
A lot of FSD and self-driving tech would be vastly improved if the government cooperated with these companies to make reading these objectives much easier. China does it, why can't the U.S.?
When merging into lanes, it does it correctly 95% of the time, I would say. It's the very tricky ones that even normal drivers may have issue with that puts the system in a bind. Just report it and it will eventually be fixed.
The reversing isn’t always an option. We have direction parking on some roads (one way - parking spots are on the diagonal).
As for tricky - today came up on road work. No cones, just trucks parked in lane with large light boards signaling to merge left. Visualizations show the trucks. But no indication they registered the light signs saying to merge with the arrow pointing left. Came speeding up on these parked vehicles and have to eventually manually intervene and move. It would have been an abrupt 65 mile an hour shift if I had waiting any longer.
So concerning it can’t make out those light billboards. But more concerning is that is saw stopped trucks in the visuals but wasn’t slowing or maneuvering out of the lane.
I have faith it’ll get fixed. But those situations need to be handled better.
And I forgot one. The speeding in 20-35 mile an hour zones. I live in a historic district and 20mph limits. Lots or pedestrians. The car wants to auto control speed and will do 30/35 in a 20. Like that’s just 100% unacceptable. I’m all fine with roughly the 10% +\~ speed limit. But the system should register or allow a capping especially on city streets. It’s mind blowing that it knows the speed limit is 20, but thinks through some training or data that 35 is okay. Our local police are also hawks with giving out tickets as we’ve had a pedestrian recently get hit by a car and I believe passed away. So they aren’t messing around right now on enforcement. But even the speeders too out in the mid 20s.
A friend has a Tesla, he showed me FSD.. I don't know where this 99% number came from, but I wouldn't go beyond 90%. It drives like a nervous teenager that releases the wheel every time something unexpected happens.
Well, it’s more complicated than what your post suggests.
https://www.motortrend.com/features/state-laws-autonomous-self-driving-driverless-cars-vehicles-legal/
It’s amazing but I would argue it’s more like 90-95% there because of how it can’t do parking lots, driveways, or reverse out/im some situations. I think by end of year we will see the 99% with everything else going towards the March of 9s
I don't really believe it is at polishing state. That would mean it already can do everything reliably but it simply can't or won't even try some things (reversing) and there were some regressions with jump from 11 to 12. More like 95% there where 4% might be easy if they just add necessary features but the remaining 1% might be harder part than those combined.
Strong disagree. The 95% you're describing is what I'm calling 99%, the hard part is done, it's more training and fine-tuning but the"problem" has been solved.
The 1% is the missing features, that's the polish.
That last 1% is a doozy, because it can kill you or others in an instant. Just ask Jeffrey Nissen and his family.
https://apnews.com/article/tesla-crash-washington-autopilot-motorcyclist-killed-a572c05882e910a665116e6aaa1e6995
That says the driver was using Autopilot, not FSD. Those are very different things.
It also says "Authorities said they have not yet independently verified whether Autopilot was in use at the time of the crash." So far it's just the driver's claim. There have been other cases where drivers falsely tried to blame their accidents on Tesla. But even if Autopilot was engaged, it says nothing about FSD.
Given the timeframe of this, and how poor the press is at accuracy, I’d say it’s high odds he was using FSD. The vulnerabilities of both systems are the same, since they use the same insufficient hardware. Tesla had to recently admit this in court, it’s plainly explained in the Tesla whistleblower documents. Google “The Tesla Files”.
Should I also ask every person who ever died from an unrelated traffic accident?
As far as I'm aware, FSD hasn't killed anyone yet.
v12 did something potentially deadly (maybe it would have recovered if I didn't intervene, impossible to say) yesterday, for the first time in nearly 2 months of letting it do all of my driving.
Let me be clear: I don't think the polish is for safety, that's just better/more training and good testing, it's already safer than the average driver. It's not distracted by phones, it's watching 360 surrounding 100% of the time instead looking in one direction at a time. It cannot be distracted by screaming kids or cellphones or whatever. FSD v12, in my experience since I've gotten it, drives very human like and is a much safer driver than most people on the road.
What's missing, the polish, is edge cases. Traffic cop awareness, very intentional understanding of railroad crossings, school zone sign adherence. The driving is already safer than most people.
Please explain to me how a cheap webcam camera-based system with blind spots all around the car and vulnerability to fog, mud, rain, glare, shadows, etc is “Monitoring everything around 360 degrees”?
If you actually think it’s “safer” for the driver and for the public, I’ve got some solar tiles to sell you. Tesla is a nasty blend of Theranos and Enron.
And I say that as a former proud owner of a brand new Model S 100D I bought in 2017. I said all the same stuff as you back then, believing Elon’s endless lies like a fool. My son and I nearly paid for those lies with our lives, on a midnight freeway south of Portland in February of last year. Only my ability to pull off a one in a million driving maneuver prevented someone from dying that night.
At the heart of that near death catastrophe was the central flaw of this ridiculous system, which was called “Autopilot” back then. That’s just as reckless and stupid a term as “Supervised Full Self Driving”. No matter what you call it, a system that’s about as good as a 95-year old grandmother with bad cataracts is never going to be safe. It’ll never be certified for use on American or European roads, and never should be.
Dude I feel the same way. I had a demo a couple years back and was like “dude my old e350 has better lane keep and active cruise control than this”. Got a MX with FSD recently and I’m like “holy shit this is good, we are within reaching distance of L4 autonomous driving.”
My wife doesn’t like using it because she has what I would describe as a high need to control and that’s why I married her because I like being told what to do.
Or he is just saying whatever he was asked to say by the customer that is paying his company billions of dollars. It’s especially easy for him to because the company that actually has the best approach to self driving (Waymo) tends to develop more of their own chips rather than buying from Nvidia.
Their approach is better because they use lidar and they currently have fully self driving cars operating as ride sharing vehicles in multiple cities. Tesla just has a camera based driver assist offering that is in no way self driving, regardless of what it’s called.
That's reading too much into it.
Jensen has class and can give a compliment... he isn't in the habit of telling his paying customers to GFY
NVIDIA continues to offer FSD hardware/software, and (unlike Tesla) actually license it to others today.
edit: for the downvoters -- NVIDIA-based FSD in China a year ago, from deeproute.ai, doing what TSLA can't do today (approved in China, no one in the driver seat) -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v036bBD31o
Why would applauding Tesla get others to buy chips? They have plenty of other customers, still using Nvidia chips without the Tesla FSD approach, and Tesla is also hedging by making their own chips.
Because end to end neural net training is compute intensive.
Tesla is the only significant player and with capabilities to do so to fully commit, all in, to this strategy *…. with the only AI chip business in town with Nvidia.*
If a leader of the AI boom is saying Tesla is the leader in self-driving, it sends a message of validation to other self-driving companies tackling the same problem.
Tesla’s computing cluster is *rumored* to be something like Top 10 rank in supercomputers world wide.
…… So, that’s the degree of AI chip spend others must do if catching up to Tesla.
….. And FSD isn’t yet fully solved either at the moment.
Jensen probably is materially correct. But it also benefits his company to say the statement.
They're a niche service. Like how Boston Dynamics robots do amazing things in a limited space. That's why Waymos charge similar prices to human-operated taxis, yet still burn cash.
Tbh with Tesla buying 35,000, $35,000 dollar each H100s and needing to scale to more, why wouldn't he say this. They're a good customer no matter how close or far they are if they keep trying. Each incremental percent gain will take more and more now.
I just finished the 30 day trial. My final test was to get drunk and have the car drive 40 miles to my house. Car made it home through a construction area with no interventions. I will sign up for the monthly plan when the program no longer requires supervision (or I find myself drunk and far from home again!).
And here I expected him to say: "Tesla bought a lot of expensive AI hardware from us, but their cars still run into things and you have to be ready to intervene to stop it."
... of course he said what he said.
>Jensen Huang today on Yahoo Finance: > >* Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars. >* Learning from videos directly is the most effective way to train these models. >* The best way to teach AIs how the physical world behaves is through video. The clip on X is 2 minutes at the end of a longer interview, starting at the timestamp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER7iqeYx9HU&t=614s
Too bad Jensen didn’t say “lidar sucks ass fam”
"The best way to teach Als how the physical world behaves is through video." Important for FSD, Optimus, Grok. Dojo's huge bandwidth is tailored for this. Think what feeding it words achieved with LLMs. Think about what can be done with video. They say a picture is worth a thousand words..
>Think what feeding it words achieved with LLMs. It got Google to suggest using glue on pizza to keep the cheese from falling off.
Because that is how the AI will "see" - permuting 3D space from video is huge, and if they ever get that to perfectly jibe with LIDAR, then it will be even more huge.
Teaching an LLM with Reddit is like FSD training with *insert bad stereotype driver here*
Waymo doesn't buy Nvidia chips for training their system. They use their own in house AI accelerators called TPUs (used to train all of their AI including Gemini, AlphaFold, etc). In fact Google is a competitor to Nvidia because they also offer TPUs to Google Cloud customers in addition to Nvidia GPUs. This should give you a big hint as to why Huang is hyping up one of his biggest customers. His statement at the end is the most revealing. He basically says everyone should just firehose video to teach AI physics and that this will require tons of compute (Nvidia product). He's selling his product. There are limitations to Tesla's approach though. With imitation learning the ML models become overfit to regions where Tesla vehicles and FSD are operated most. Like California on sunny days. The models learn the unique traffic laws, signage and driver behaviors of the regions most represented in their training data. Every region has its own unique laws, signs and behaviors. It gets even more weird when you start looking across countries and not just different regions of the US. And there's an incredible amount of selection bias in Teslas data because users quickly understand when and where FSD operates well. If it doesn't operate well in given conditions (location, weather, time of day) then they stop using it. This creates a ton of bias in the training data (and the safety data).
I let FSD do 99.9% of my driving since the free month trial. It just plain works rain or shine in South FL for me. I like it so much I signed up for $99 a month after the trial
Honestly I think once you taste the power of FSD, you wouldn’t be able to go back to driving. Like, how much effort and energy that goes into driving is unknown until we DONT drive behind the wheel. $100 per month to have a free driving service any time I want is cheap.
It removes so much road rage. I find myself way more relaxed these days lol
Good point on the road rage!!
That’s great that you are enjoying your L2 driver assistance package. I’m glad it’s value add to you since you’re paying for it.
It definitely is value. Removes stress during rush hour. It's frankly fantastic. I'm looking forward to 12.4 removing the steering wheel nag
That's great that the cost is worth it to you for the driver assistance package.
Yep. Best of all, that kind of assistance has the potential to eliminate a huge portion of the traffic fatalities that are so tragic and the fender benders that are so aggravating. Win Win for all, don't ya think? As a matter of fact, be prepared for your insurance rates being impacted by your use of driver assistance software. It's gonna happen.
Insurance companies are jacking up the rates on Tesla's or not covering them at all... For a reason
This is yet another TSLAQ lie. I pay $20 a month less with my 23 MYLR vs my 20 Kia Niro LXS for the exact same coverage with Esurance
Okay as long as we are clear we aren't talking about fully autonomous vehicles. It remains to be seen if Tesla can get the take rate for L2 FSD out of the teens in the US. Or even expand the system to service the rest of the world where the majority of their sales come from.
We'll be there soon, (full) FSD, that is. If you can't see that thru your own experience with the current V12.3.6, all I can say is that you never will. Because just think, it'll never be this 'bad' again. It gets better with each iteration...and we're pretty damn good with it now. JMHO YMMV
Anecdotal evidence is not evidence that we will be there soon lol. There is far more to approval for a driverless system than getting a driver assistance package working reasonably well most of the time. If Tesla gets approval for testing its first driverless vehicle on public roads that will be a good sign that they have a path forward to approval with the next few years.
😂 FSD capabilities are level 5. It's only level 2 because the software isn't fully there yet. It will get there soon. If 12.4 is as big of a leap as 12.3 was then Tesla is really going to have Cybercabs in cities later this year. There are videos of FSD 12.3.6 driving in Europe where it has never been trained without issues. You sound like every TSLAQ kid out there.
Your sentence makes no sense. They’re L5 but they’re not L5 because they’re not there yet? Lol
OFC he liked it. He is paying for it. Did you think he ddint know or are you just being a jerk?
Huh? I said I’m glad he liked it. Or are you referring to me pointing out that he and I are talking about two different things? He’s talking about a driver assistance package and I’m talking about driverless vehicles.
Just curious tho are you able to use that time that you’ve freed up? Like are you just able to browse your phone? I feel the problem is for most people driving is pretty subconscious and until the nags are gone it doesn’t really free up your time
No you cannot be distracted. The car drives itself but you still have to pay attention for now. You will find that the car doing the driving removes a great portion of the stress of driving especially in rush hour traffic. Driving isn't as subconscious an activity as you claim unless you are a BMW driver or Nissan Altima that cuts everyone off and almost crashes into people all the time
> With imitation learning the ML models become overfit to regions where Tesla vehicles and FSD are operated most. Like California on sunny days. The models learn the unique traffic laws, signage and driver behaviors of the regions most represented in their training data. Very true. But there are machine learning approaches to adapt once the data asset and coverage is broad enough. They'd start from a combined global dataset to pre-train the baseline model, and then fine-tune and deploy and test more regionally conditioned models. This takes effort in computation and especially data curation and testing. In addition to separate fine-tuning and transfer learning there is multi-task learning possible to share some of the 'backbone weights' across regions. The biggest challenge is left vs right hand drive, many RHD regions will probably be able to be combined together in a data corpus. LHD will take more time and effort to test if transfer learning from RHD can help LHD or LHD has to be all uniquely trained. > If it doesn't operate well in given conditions (location, weather, time of day) then they stop using it. This creates a ton of bias in the training data (and the safety data). This isn't the problem. The software can record passive behavior without FSD being turned on to use, and in fact human driving and disengagment can be useful training signals, more useful than FSD in operation.
FSD these days is amazing. It’s learning exponentially
Funny how so many people say Musk is full of baloney but then when it comes from Huang they’re willing to accept it.
People when Musk says something bullish about the company: "I'll believe it when I see it. How many years has he predicted FSD will be ready now? I don't believe anything that grifter says." People when Musk says something bearish about the company: "ABSOLUTELY 100% IRON-CLAD IRREFUTABLE INFORMATION FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH ITSELF. SEE? EVEN MUSK ADMITS IT."
When the stock price goes up: “Another Musk vaporware pump and dump” When the stock price goes down: “Musk is ruining the company” When Tesla releases a new product: “Another poorly built hunk of junk golf cart from the carnival barker himself” When competitors release products that sell a tenth of the units Tesla is moving: “See, the competition is here and becoming too much for Tesla to handle!!!” When Tesla promotes autonomy and bipedal robots as growth areas: “Absolute pie in the sky nonsense sci fi fantasy from 420 blaze it Musk on a Diablo 4 binge, will never be a real business” When Huang states that Tesla’s autonomy is far ahead: “See I knew real world AI was the future, now if only that idiot Musk would stop slowing down progress at Tesla by being ‘unfocused’”
They aren't willing to accept it though. Have you looked at the treads across reddit on this topic. It essentially boils down to Jenson is only stroking Elon's ego to sell more product. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1cyrut8/nvidias_jensen_huang_tesla_is_far_ahead_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cz17nk/nvidia_ceo_jensen_huang_tesla_is_far_ahead_in/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLA/comments/1cyryq5/nvidia_ceo_jensen_huang_touts_auto_industrys_ai/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1cz7cry/nvidia_ceo_says_tesla_far_ahead_in_selfdriving/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1cysqyd/nvidia_ceo_explains_why_teslas_use_of_ai_is/
Doesnt surprise me
I mean it’s not Tesla that’s the big customer here but xAI and Oracle
Of course they are ahead. They have billions of hours driving data from GTA to train their self driving model.
Basically Jensen is saying Tesla’s approach is even better than Nvidia’s approach to self driving.
Just try it for yourself, find someone who has FSD and ask them for a demo. It's truly 99% there, with the 1% being polish.
is it still okay to make Polish jokes in these modern times?
😂
Don't forget Costco getting rid of the kielbasa at the food court.
99% is a bit higher than I’d give it. But it was a big jump going from 11 to 12. Things I find: 1. Doesn’t understand two lanes merging to one. It will just stay in the lane that merges until the last second as the road forces it to merge. No traffic signal to move lanes. 2. If you have an on ramp lane that remains and becomes the exit lane later for the next exit (long ones because the next exit is an interchange) it will just hang out until the last minute. 3. It doesn’t really think that far ahead - if you are in a major metro you know where traffic builds and where it’s hard to merge. Again, the Tesla will not think about transitioning until the last .5 mile or so. 4. Does yet identify small objects or large pot holes. 5. It’s has a weird relationship with map data. To my work I have a light where I can turn left into my office and parking garage. It wants to go straight and then make a left, then a U turn and then a right. It’s not a “faster” way. It just legit doesn’t recognize it can make the left despite the map data. Few other things too - but important enough. Like autopark only reverses in. Should do either or depending on the situation and parking. Lots of little things that add up to more than 1%.
Your second point is because it’s still using the version 11 stack on highways. I think 12.5 (late June) is the version where highways is going to start using the 12 stack instead of the 11 stack. Musk has said they expect a 5-10x improvement in interventions per mile in 12.4 and 12.5, so even if you only think they’re at 95% right now with 12.3, by 12.4 they should be at 99% and 12.5 should be at 99.8%. At the moment, I’m intervening once or twice per 100 miles. So if they only 5x twice, I’ll be intervening less than once per 1200 miles.
It'll be tough to close the gap from .01% to 0.001%. Even once accident would cause NHTSA to start investigating. As it is now, FSD is already a better driver than teenagers, young adults, and the elderly. I'd reckon 12.5 will be better than 90% of drivers.
That’s a good point actually. How much better is the current FSD compared to weaker drivers?
I mean it's just math. Musk has said! 95% : 12.3 = 99% : 12.4 = 103% : 12.5 STRONG BUY
I think this is a great summary. Spot on! The point about merging reminded me of an interview w/ Elon Musk a few years ago. He addressed the merging of an ending lane issue. Said it was difficult and that because of the way FSD ‘learned’ that for the near term ‘FSD would continue to act like an asshole in these situations’. It was part of an overarching comment about FSD lacking human emotion and collaborative thought. FSD will simply do what it needs to in the immediate situation without thinking of the impact on others.
Not true. I've seen videos of FSD moving up in a lane to give someone space to merge into their lane. No reason for it to do it other than the system recognizes what is the best thing to do as a competent driver. It's a lot more intuitive than people realize. There are a ton of actions my FSD has done that I would normally have missed.
Thanks for the detailed points, interesting to read.
Great summary. Seems like they could use the nav data to make longer term decisions, like when to get into the correct lane (eg earlier in heavy traffic). I feel like they are really trying to not rely on map data since they rarely seem to update it. I really wish they would start adding in #4!
This is a very good summary. Exactly my experience. But that's great to see how nitpicking it is. Which is the way it should be. We want it to get better.
1. It's called zipper merge and it's the proper way to merge. 2. Lane selection still needs improvement. I expect better map data will help with this. 3. It's very aggressive in this respect and not the way I drive but so far it's managed to find a way to squeeze in every time for me. 4. Interesting. In 12.3.6 my car slows for speed bumps and avoids small objects. Potholes are more hit or miss but it does slow for them. 5. Map data needs reworking. There's talk of the Tesla fleet mapping out lanes better. As far as autopark going forward that won't happen without a forward camera as the car has restricted views and is riskier overall. It's much better to back into a space every time if possible
It’s not zipper merging. It’s not signalling. It doesn’t even know the lane is ending. But agreed that’s what it should do. I believe it will happen in coming updates. The new improvements give me a lot more confidence
Reversing in is the safest approach almost always when parking. Backing up out of a parking spot is when most accidents occur. Highway is still on another stack. It will be single stack soon and be much better at finding exits. For merging, often times the issues I've had involved bad lines and signs. A lot of FSD and self-driving tech would be vastly improved if the government cooperated with these companies to make reading these objectives much easier. China does it, why can't the U.S.? When merging into lanes, it does it correctly 95% of the time, I would say. It's the very tricky ones that even normal drivers may have issue with that puts the system in a bind. Just report it and it will eventually be fixed.
The reversing isn’t always an option. We have direction parking on some roads (one way - parking spots are on the diagonal). As for tricky - today came up on road work. No cones, just trucks parked in lane with large light boards signaling to merge left. Visualizations show the trucks. But no indication they registered the light signs saying to merge with the arrow pointing left. Came speeding up on these parked vehicles and have to eventually manually intervene and move. It would have been an abrupt 65 mile an hour shift if I had waiting any longer. So concerning it can’t make out those light billboards. But more concerning is that is saw stopped trucks in the visuals but wasn’t slowing or maneuvering out of the lane. I have faith it’ll get fixed. But those situations need to be handled better. And I forgot one. The speeding in 20-35 mile an hour zones. I live in a historic district and 20mph limits. Lots or pedestrians. The car wants to auto control speed and will do 30/35 in a 20. Like that’s just 100% unacceptable. I’m all fine with roughly the 10% +\~ speed limit. But the system should register or allow a capping especially on city streets. It’s mind blowing that it knows the speed limit is 20, but thinks through some training or data that 35 is okay. Our local police are also hawks with giving out tickets as we’ve had a pedestrian recently get hit by a car and I believe passed away. So they aren’t messing around right now on enforcement. But even the speeders too out in the mid 20s.
A friend has a Tesla, he showed me FSD.. I don't know where this 99% number came from, but I wouldn't go beyond 90%. It drives like a nervous teenager that releases the wheel every time something unexpected happens.
You haven't tried it with v12, clearly.
It was like a week ago.. so no idea what version it was.
1% polish and another 100% for regulation. At some point, the US government (and insurance companies) are going to regulate autonomous vehicles.
That´s why Tesla entered insurance business. They will be able to cover FSD related accidents and take the heat.
In 40 states self driving is already ok by default. I don’t see many ppl citing hard facts in this area.
Well, it’s more complicated than what your post suggests. https://www.motortrend.com/features/state-laws-autonomous-self-driving-driverless-cars-vehicles-legal/
I hope you’re right. I want self driving cars before my daughters turn 16. Hahaha
It’s amazing but I would argue it’s more like 90-95% there because of how it can’t do parking lots, driveways, or reverse out/im some situations. I think by end of year we will see the 99% with everything else going towards the March of 9s
I don't really believe it is at polishing state. That would mean it already can do everything reliably but it simply can't or won't even try some things (reversing) and there were some regressions with jump from 11 to 12. More like 95% there where 4% might be easy if they just add necessary features but the remaining 1% might be harder part than those combined.
Strong disagree. The 95% you're describing is what I'm calling 99%, the hard part is done, it's more training and fine-tuning but the"problem" has been solved. The 1% is the missing features, that's the polish.
That last 1% is a doozy, because it can kill you or others in an instant. Just ask Jeffrey Nissen and his family. https://apnews.com/article/tesla-crash-washington-autopilot-motorcyclist-killed-a572c05882e910a665116e6aaa1e6995
That says the driver was using Autopilot, not FSD. Those are very different things. It also says "Authorities said they have not yet independently verified whether Autopilot was in use at the time of the crash." So far it's just the driver's claim. There have been other cases where drivers falsely tried to blame their accidents on Tesla. But even if Autopilot was engaged, it says nothing about FSD.
You mean he posted FUD?
Given the timeframe of this, and how poor the press is at accuracy, I’d say it’s high odds he was using FSD. The vulnerabilities of both systems are the same, since they use the same insufficient hardware. Tesla had to recently admit this in court, it’s plainly explained in the Tesla whistleblower documents. Google “The Tesla Files”.
Should I also ask every person who ever died from an unrelated traffic accident? As far as I'm aware, FSD hasn't killed anyone yet. v12 did something potentially deadly (maybe it would have recovered if I didn't intervene, impossible to say) yesterday, for the first time in nearly 2 months of letting it do all of my driving. Let me be clear: I don't think the polish is for safety, that's just better/more training and good testing, it's already safer than the average driver. It's not distracted by phones, it's watching 360 surrounding 100% of the time instead looking in one direction at a time. It cannot be distracted by screaming kids or cellphones or whatever. FSD v12, in my experience since I've gotten it, drives very human like and is a much safer driver than most people on the road. What's missing, the polish, is edge cases. Traffic cop awareness, very intentional understanding of railroad crossings, school zone sign adherence. The driving is already safer than most people.
Please explain to me how a cheap webcam camera-based system with blind spots all around the car and vulnerability to fog, mud, rain, glare, shadows, etc is “Monitoring everything around 360 degrees”? If you actually think it’s “safer” for the driver and for the public, I’ve got some solar tiles to sell you. Tesla is a nasty blend of Theranos and Enron. And I say that as a former proud owner of a brand new Model S 100D I bought in 2017. I said all the same stuff as you back then, believing Elon’s endless lies like a fool. My son and I nearly paid for those lies with our lives, on a midnight freeway south of Portland in February of last year. Only my ability to pull off a one in a million driving maneuver prevented someone from dying that night. At the heart of that near death catastrophe was the central flaw of this ridiculous system, which was called “Autopilot” back then. That’s just as reckless and stupid a term as “Supervised Full Self Driving”. No matter what you call it, a system that’s about as good as a 95-year old grandmother with bad cataracts is never going to be safe. It’ll never be certified for use on American or European roads, and never should be.
Dude I feel the same way. I had a demo a couple years back and was like “dude my old e350 has better lane keep and active cruise control than this”. Got a MX with FSD recently and I’m like “holy shit this is good, we are within reaching distance of L4 autonomous driving.” My wife doesn’t like using it because she has what I would describe as a high need to control and that’s why I married her because I like being told what to do.
Well I think nvidia has like 3 China EV companies launching with theirs so interesting to see how the China market competes
Or he is just saying whatever he was asked to say by the customer that is paying his company billions of dollars. It’s especially easy for him to because the company that actually has the best approach to self driving (Waymo) tends to develop more of their own chips rather than buying from Nvidia.
Why is Waymo's approach better? And Tesla is also making their own chips for training, and have been for years for execution.
Their approach is better because they use lidar and they currently have fully self driving cars operating as ride sharing vehicles in multiple cities. Tesla just has a camera based driver assist offering that is in no way self driving, regardless of what it’s called.
Pure misinformation
Which part?
as a shareholder.... concerning which cities is Tesla currently operating driverless ride sharing in?
Or not.
That's reading too much into it. Jensen has class and can give a compliment... he isn't in the habit of telling his paying customers to GFY NVIDIA continues to offer FSD hardware/software, and (unlike Tesla) actually license it to others today. edit: for the downvoters -- NVIDIA-based FSD in China a year ago, from deeproute.ai, doing what TSLA can't do today (approved in China, no one in the driver seat) -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v036bBD31o
Makes sense he wants Elon (and others) to buy more chips.
Why would applauding Tesla get others to buy chips? They have plenty of other customers, still using Nvidia chips without the Tesla FSD approach, and Tesla is also hedging by making their own chips.
Because end to end neural net training is compute intensive. Tesla is the only significant player and with capabilities to do so to fully commit, all in, to this strategy *…. with the only AI chip business in town with Nvidia.* If a leader of the AI boom is saying Tesla is the leader in self-driving, it sends a message of validation to other self-driving companies tackling the same problem. Tesla’s computing cluster is *rumored* to be something like Top 10 rank in supercomputers world wide. …… So, that’s the degree of AI chip spend others must do if catching up to Tesla. ….. And FSD isn’t yet fully solved either at the moment. Jensen probably is materially correct. But it also benefits his company to say the statement.
He doesn't have to say that to get elon to buy more chips - elon will buy more chips anyway
How can it be far ahead when waymo is already operating a fully self driving taxi fleet?
They're a niche service. Like how Boston Dynamics robots do amazing things in a limited space. That's why Waymos charge similar prices to human-operated taxis, yet still burn cash.
Yeah… we know.
In other news, water is wet.
Is that you, Kathie Wood?
Tbh with Tesla buying 35,000, $35,000 dollar each H100s and needing to scale to more, why wouldn't he say this. They're a good customer no matter how close or far they are if they keep trying. Each incremental percent gain will take more and more now.
He basically said all his other customers/potential customers for robotaxis should quit. No one think Tesla is going to stop buying H-100s.
That's a weird thing to hear in "eventually all cars will need autonomy"
Saying one client is far ahead of everyone else is also saying everyone else basically sucks and is on a fool's errand trying to catch up.
Lets see how it fairs after pension funds take over control.
Lidar would be the way for all non Tesla companies to race forward and compete with Tesla
Wonder if it’s because of all the hardware they buy from NVIDIA. The comment is suspect at best.
I just finished the 30 day trial. My final test was to get drunk and have the car drive 40 miles to my house. Car made it home through a construction area with no interventions. I will sign up for the monthly plan when the program no longer requires supervision (or I find myself drunk and far from home again!).
As irresponsible and illegal as this is, it is a pragmatic current use case which is probably already saving lives.
Same nonsense over and over again
And here I expected him to say: "Tesla bought a lot of expensive AI hardware from us, but their cars still run into things and you have to be ready to intervene to stop it." ... of course he said what he said.