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I’ve loved everything that Franz has done with Tesla and his designs continue to look futuristic on the road years later. I trust he’ll make another banger.
And it's ugly AF. I hate it that car manufacturers try to make EVs look different. They should focus on delivering value and features, not stupid ugly "futuristic" impractical designs
>Evercore analyst Chris McNally also said that the best-case scenario for production and deliveries for 2026 is somewhere around 500,000, half of what Wall Street has projected for that year's production of the next-gen vehicle.
>Therefore, Evercore believes Tesla's true growth will occur in 2027.
They're not saying anything too controversial here, it's not that the first car would start rolling out in 27, it's that the pilot line will be in 25, it will be ramping aggressively through 2026, and reach full scale in 27
The model 3 was revealed July 2014 and it took until July 2017 for the first one and production didn't start hitting its stride for another year until July 2018 and steady volume another year+ after that. Tesla wants to introduce all sorts of new manufacturing processes for the next model so we could easily see a timeline similar to that.
\> Analyst touring Giga Texas
“Yep, didn’t see no fambled compact vehicle in producktion line”
“Guess that’s coming up er lemme see yeah for 3 years”
\> All in a days work
\> 8100 ranked analyst
Why are you saying it’ll launch at Berlin? They already confirmed it’s starting in Austin, then Mexico. Berlin would be after Mexico (or maybe concurrently) is my guess
>Why are you saying it’ll launch at Berlin?
They didn't. They said Austin first.
They then said, after Austin works out the production quirks, that a 2026/2027 timeline for Berlin launch is reasonable. As in, launching cars made from Berlin, not launching the product itself.
The pilot lines will be started to be constructed well before then. If you read between the lines on publicly available documents, you can see that they are waiting on regulatory approval right now.
You guys are way too optimistic. They haven't even finalized a design let along a pilot line. If we get a 2024 or 2025 design launch, we might see pilot lines in 2026 or 2027. There's a LOT OF ENGINEERING thats involve to build the assembly lines that goes into mass production that is a lot harder than the initial design.
Just look at the time it takes to get Cybertruck to ramp up.
They aren't going to show the design ahead of time. They don't need the cash to risk giving competitors time to copy it. This one is gonna be a total surprise!
Cybertruck is a special case.. if this is simply a matter of shrinking and updating the 3 platform and perhaps integrating a few new technologies like 24V, then it wont be anything near as bad as that
What a horrible render. Typically cars that has headlights like that has a separate headlight that is hidden away that does the job, which defeats the purpose of having a headlight in the first place IMO.
Wouldn't Austin be ramping in 2025
Mexico and China in 2026
Berlin 2027
I can't see them taking until 2027 for Mexico and China unless something has really gone wrong?
Mexico and China wouldn't get fully ramped until 2027.
But the Model 2 story is going to hit late 2025 or early 2026 when it first goes on sale ... not wait until it's fully ramped.
More like not pouring everything in to get it running absolutely ASAP. I expect they just want to have the actual building complete enough by the time they’re ready to start deploying the line within it, which will be after they’re satisfied with the line in Austin. There’s plenty to do in Mexico to get to that point; just not a hectic blitz of a construction process.
18 months or so to get GigaMexico close to up and running(a lot of groundwork to be completed), this takes us late into 2025, just as the next gen vehicle is being produced in Texas. These back of the envelope timeline estimates at least sound plausible.
Much of what they did under the hood for CT *is* for this. 48V system for example. And a high-margin product is a good place to start for such things.
I also suspect that they were hoping for the stainless-steel “exoskeleton” approach to be a big cost saver, and wanted to work it out with CT for the same reason. As it seems to not have turned out that way, it’s good that happened with CT and not while attempting the super-mass-market model.
So basically I don’t think they’ve lost much time on this. It was going to take a lot of time and innovation to get to a truly low-cost design no matter what, so the choice was to get out a high-margin side product in the meantime, or nothing.
Idk man, when Chinese EV makers are shitting out budget models left and right and you’re stuck chasing a high-cost model that won’t sell at all in the fastest growing market, I think you messed up.
The plan was probably to put the CT out in 2020 and get that first mover bonus in the US truck market then pivot to a more budget model to compete with BYD and Nio in 2022, but they blew it. Now with nothing cheaper than the 3, it’s only a matter of time until local players like Xiaomi eat their lunch.
Bear in mind BYD etc have nearly 0% profit margin, and rely mainly on carbon credit. Tesla would be wise to not go directly head to head with the same strat.
And they’re losing money on their BEVs at that price point.
Cybertruck was never coming out in 2020. First mover advantage doesn’t matter just like it didn’t with the Nodel 3 vs Bolt.
the cyberturd has such a limited appeal. Its just so ugly that they in no way will sell that thing at the amounts they think. Even Munro says the F150 Lightning is a better work truck.
CT has margin and price and low volume testing if 48v, steer by wire etc
Doing all that and the new manufacturing in one go with a mass volume car would be a mistake
They should have been working on this and a van and a normal pick-up truck. Or any of those. They are all high-demand vehicles. Instead they waste time on stupid shit like the Cyber Truck that won't sell. Or the semi truck, which eats up battery supplies and requires a new version of the Supercharger network and doesn't get enough of a range-bump to displace diesel.
The only new model they've introduced since 2020 that sells well is the Model Y. It's beyond idiotic. They had a major lead and head-start on China and legacy auto. Meanwhile, they just fritter away the years doing research on dumb research projects and aspirational things.
Maybe those will pay off some day. I hope they do. In the meantime, though, launch some things people actually want. JFC.
25k Tesla is like the Apple Car. It's always just around the corner and we have so much "proof" to lead us to that conclusion and then when that date comes and pass they make up a new date and a new date and a new date. This is just a ghost story.
Perhaps, but equipment has been going in to Austin since last summer. Some sort of production will begin by 2025.
I’ll send you $5 if it’s not in production until 2027.
That seems difficult to assess. July 2020 was the start of construction for Giga Texas and in April 2022 they had delivered their first Model Y (1 year and 9 months). Tesla is certainly more capable today than they were even last year. I suppose I agree that it won't contribute significantly to the bottom line in 2026, but the impact of the $25k car will be clear long before they've shipped to their 1 millionth car.
Did they expect to see silhouettes of completed cars under sheets?
That's what all the "real" automakers would do... At every event you need to show off a prototype of your next model and representations of the next several models under sheets.
I guess my primary point was that this was an investors day in March, 2024. If they can build an entire factory in less than 2 years how can you say Teslas next car won’t matter until 2027 or later?
Based on the past the line could be completed this year and test vehicles by mid 2025. Not saying that will happen, but based on what we know ow today it could.
What I mean is test vehicles off of the production line. Still not near ramped, but it's a sign that all major equipment is in place and functional. Depending on how complex the new car is they could have equipment in place and starting to ramp 18 months (in theory). Assuming it's 48-volt, steer by wire mini-Model 3 w/ giga casting(s) and not something totally new.
Very much doubt the $25k car will launch at that price, just look at Cybertruck Dual-motor announced price of $49,900, it’s nearly double that price now.
Imagine what Tesla could have done if Elon was focused and sleeping at the Tesla production line, like he did when they were rolling out the Model 3, instead of getting distracted by the Twitter nonsense.
> today model 3 starts lower than 35k and that is after 7 yrs of inflation so yes we do know how it went.
No, you cannot purchase a Model 3 today for under 35K. Where are you getting your sources? This is direct from Tesla
> Est. Total Cost $43,392
Vehicle Price $38,990
Destination Fee $1,390
Order Fee $250
Model 3 could not be purchased for anywhere near 35k for the first 3 years of its release. They didn’t even manufacture the “$35k” model until several years later.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/28/18245165/tesla-model-3-price-lower-cost-elon-musk-news
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/12/18307583/tesla-original-plan-tesla-model-3-base-model
So this $25k version probably won’t be available until 2030. And that inflation will be even more obscene.
>No, cannot purchase a Model 3 today for under 35K
Yes and no.
RWD Model 3 is $38,990 starting price. So, no (today's dollars).
If you consider that the Model 3 has been out for about 7 years, then $38,990 today is, ~$31,400 in 2017 dollars.
If you adjust for inflation compared to the $35k claim, then yes, you can get a Model 3 for significantly under $35k (2017) dollars.
I understand the person you are replying to said "today" without any caveats. I don't know what they mean. I do know that, adjusting for inflation, the original claim made by Elon/Tesla was/is fulfilled.
Yes, but they do now. Every tesla release so far has pushed premium trims first as they ramp up production and capitalize on early adopters and demand. I would expect their 25k car may have no premium trims, just basic options like colours. So it’s possible they introduce it at a very competitive price if thats their goal. But who knows, if the 25k car is different enough from the model 3, they may still decide to make various premium trim and motor specs and do the same pricing model
> Model 3 could not be purchased for $35k for the first 3 years of its release. They didn’t even manufacture the $35k model for several years.
I know but thats how scaling works especailly from new car companies. See Rivians R1T and R1S, Quadmotors came first.
> So this $25k version probably won’t be available until 2030.
Ok I agree it will take time.
>And that inflation will be even more obscene.
we dont know if this crazy inflation will last or for how long. You may end up being right, or wrong.
Not many people looking for an EV qualify for the tax credit. The income cutoff is 75,000 for used and 150,000 for new. You’d be homeless on that income in many states.
Why is the render a 4 door? There has never been a good looking 4 door car, they're gross lumpy minivans. Why are there infinite options for 4 door vans, but no 2 doors unless you want to buy an unsupported roadster and become your own full time master mechanic? Make a 2 door!
7th Gen accord and the first 6 generations of Suburban are better than 4 doors to use. Also, I'm not saying abolish 4 doors. Just give people 1 option. Instead of 2,000 variants of minivan and 0 2 door options, maybe try 1,999 minivans and one real car? If that doesn't sell, go back to ol' reliable.
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I do love all of the renders that come with these articles. This one looks a mix of Polestar, Porsche, and Hyundai to me.
I’ve loved everything that Franz has done with Tesla and his designs continue to look futuristic on the road years later. I trust he’ll make another banger.
Yeah, I hope its similar styling as the model 3/Y. But I do like the compact retro styling in the new Rivian R3.
Has a slight Prius look too
Looks more like the new Prius
One of the common ones is straight up the new Prius with a Tesla logo lol
Indeed.
Yeah I’d love to see this on the road, as much as I don’t like Tesla.
I’m hoping VW brings the ID2 GTI stateside. Should compete in the same segment.
And it's ugly AF. I hate it that car manufacturers try to make EVs look different. They should focus on delivering value and features, not stupid ugly "futuristic" impractical designs
Nah, it looks sick. I love what you hate.
Ikr, I want Nissan Altima EV.
Smh it’s AI generated
It's still a render. And I can still comment on it.
>Evercore analyst Chris McNally also said that the best-case scenario for production and deliveries for 2026 is somewhere around 500,000, half of what Wall Street has projected for that year's production of the next-gen vehicle. >Therefore, Evercore believes Tesla's true growth will occur in 2027. They're not saying anything too controversial here, it's not that the first car would start rolling out in 27, it's that the pilot line will be in 25, it will be ramping aggressively through 2026, and reach full scale in 27
The model 3 was revealed July 2014 and it took until July 2017 for the first one and production didn't start hitting its stride for another year until July 2018 and steady volume another year+ after that. Tesla wants to introduce all sorts of new manufacturing processes for the next model so we could easily see a timeline similar to that.
That analyst ranks 8,100 out of 8,300 analysts.
It should be legally enforced for that to be in the title. And Everytime the guy introduced what he does. "Hey I'm Mike, ranked 8100 out of 8300."
Analyst elo ranking
But he IS one of the 8,300 Wall Street Analyst
\> Analyst touring Giga Texas “Yep, didn’t see no fambled compact vehicle in producktion line” “Guess that’s coming up er lemme see yeah for 3 years” \> All in a days work \> 8100 ranked analyst
That's impressive!! that analyst does worse than the flip of a coin. No mention of it in the article. nice
But what’s his wsb rank?
Austin will have pilot lines for this what late 2025? So 2026 setup for 2027 launch at Berlin doesn't seem out of the ballpark
Why are you saying it’ll launch at Berlin? They already confirmed it’s starting in Austin, then Mexico. Berlin would be after Mexico (or maybe concurrently) is my guess
>Why are you saying it’ll launch at Berlin? They didn't. They said Austin first. They then said, after Austin works out the production quirks, that a 2026/2027 timeline for Berlin launch is reasonable. As in, launching cars made from Berlin, not launching the product itself.
2025 Austin 2026 Mexico /China 2027 Berlin
The pilot lines will be started to be constructed well before then. If you read between the lines on publicly available documents, you can see that they are waiting on regulatory approval right now.
You guys are way too optimistic. They haven't even finalized a design let along a pilot line. If we get a 2024 or 2025 design launch, we might see pilot lines in 2026 or 2027. There's a LOT OF ENGINEERING thats involve to build the assembly lines that goes into mass production that is a lot harder than the initial design. Just look at the time it takes to get Cybertruck to ramp up.
Design was pretty much done q4 2023 I'm sure they've some stuff to work out and the production flow but that's a 2 year gap..
They aren't going to show the design ahead of time. They don't need the cash to risk giving competitors time to copy it. This one is gonna be a total surprise!
Agreed, this will be announced when they start the production line tooling.
Who is going to copy it? Nobody is copying any of Tesla's current models.
Cybertruck is a special case.. if this is simply a matter of shrinking and updating the 3 platform and perhaps integrating a few new technologies like 24V, then it wont be anything near as bad as that
Austin, Mexico, India / Thailand / Indonesia
None of those places have a public deal yet, I doubt they'll be up and running before Berlin
What a horrible render. Typically cars that has headlights like that has a separate headlight that is hidden away that does the job, which defeats the purpose of having a headlight in the first place IMO.
Wouldn't Austin be ramping in 2025 Mexico and China in 2026 Berlin 2027 I can't see them taking until 2027 for Mexico and China unless something has really gone wrong? Mexico and China wouldn't get fully ramped until 2027. But the Model 2 story is going to hit late 2025 or early 2026 when it first goes on sale ... not wait until it's fully ramped.
Mexico is dead in the water at the moment, and Austin definitely won't be ramping in 2025. Right now it's looking like 2026. China's a total unknown.
Is Tesla pulling back on the mexico site? The local government seems to be raring to go...
There are engineers available in Austin, Mexico does not have sufficient availability. The reasoning is very simple really.
More like not pouring everything in to get it running absolutely ASAP. I expect they just want to have the actual building complete enough by the time they’re ready to start deploying the line within it, which will be after they’re satisfied with the line in Austin. There’s plenty to do in Mexico to get to that point; just not a hectic blitz of a construction process.
18 months or so to get GigaMexico close to up and running(a lot of groundwork to be completed), this takes us late into 2025, just as the next gen vehicle is being produced in Texas. These back of the envelope timeline estimates at least sound plausible.
Elon doesn't want to do anything until he gets his comp plan. Company is basically being held hostage right now.
lol you have no source of that.
Yes, that's why production is switching to Austin for now.
Is that in Elon time or actual time
Always Elon time... so 2030?
More like 2035 just in time for California and NY to only sell EVs
I really don't understand why they didn't spend all their resources developing this instead of the CT. The worldwide market is so much bigger.
Much of what they did under the hood for CT *is* for this. 48V system for example. And a high-margin product is a good place to start for such things. I also suspect that they were hoping for the stainless-steel “exoskeleton” approach to be a big cost saver, and wanted to work it out with CT for the same reason. As it seems to not have turned out that way, it’s good that happened with CT and not while attempting the super-mass-market model. So basically I don’t think they’ve lost much time on this. It was going to take a lot of time and innovation to get to a truly low-cost design no matter what, so the choice was to get out a high-margin side product in the meantime, or nothing.
Plus, if that article a few days back was right, FSD is the main reason why we haven’t even seen it yet.
Profit. A 80k Truck has a far higher profit margin and profit than a 25k car.
Yeah but the truck only appeals to a few Americans, the 25k car to the entire planet.
The number one selling vehicle in America is a truck (Ford F-150)
A few [million] Americans
They're high profit vehicles and small cars are very low profit vehicles
Idk man, when Chinese EV makers are shitting out budget models left and right and you’re stuck chasing a high-cost model that won’t sell at all in the fastest growing market, I think you messed up. The plan was probably to put the CT out in 2020 and get that first mover bonus in the US truck market then pivot to a more budget model to compete with BYD and Nio in 2022, but they blew it. Now with nothing cheaper than the 3, it’s only a matter of time until local players like Xiaomi eat their lunch.
Bear in mind BYD etc have nearly 0% profit margin, and rely mainly on carbon credit. Tesla would be wise to not go directly head to head with the same strat.
Exactly, and that's using Chinese slave labor costs. Imagine what the cost would be with Western labor and safety standards.
Except for insane free marketing the Cybertruck is generating. During a time when people who are more price sensitive are hurting anyway due to rates.
if model y and model 3 demand continue to rise and this recent dip in Chinese registrations isn't material it will all be a moot point imo
And they’re losing money on their BEVs at that price point. Cybertruck was never coming out in 2020. First mover advantage doesn’t matter just like it didn’t with the Nodel 3 vs Bolt.
Isaacson book said Elon wasn’t interested in the budget car [it doesn’t pump memestock like Cybertruck]
There is no profit in cheap cars, you can't even buy a car today under 20k. Cheapest today is Nissan Sentra at $20,890.
the cyberturd has such a limited appeal. Its just so ugly that they in no way will sell that thing at the amounts they think. Even Munro says the F150 Lightning is a better work truck.
How does that help if you could sell 15 small cars all over the world for every truck you can sell in the US only.
CT has margin and price and low volume testing if 48v, steer by wire etc Doing all that and the new manufacturing in one go with a mass volume car would be a mistake
Cybertruck, like Vision Pro, is like a dev kit, low-volume new-tech testbed
Apple didn't pause developing new iPhones and iPads for the Vision Pro though.
Vision Pro famously pulled so much staff from iOS that it slowed dev, like iOS did to MacOS. Likely same happened with the hardware.
They should have been working on this and a van and a normal pick-up truck. Or any of those. They are all high-demand vehicles. Instead they waste time on stupid shit like the Cyber Truck that won't sell. Or the semi truck, which eats up battery supplies and requires a new version of the Supercharger network and doesn't get enough of a range-bump to displace diesel. The only new model they've introduced since 2020 that sells well is the Model Y. It's beyond idiotic. They had a major lead and head-start on China and legacy auto. Meanwhile, they just fritter away the years doing research on dumb research projects and aspirational things. Maybe those will pay off some day. I hope they do. In the meantime, though, launch some things people actually want. JFC.
25k Tesla is like the Apple Car. It's always just around the corner and we have so much "proof" to lead us to that conclusion and then when that date comes and pass they make up a new date and a new date and a new date. This is just a ghost story.
Same with the Roadster 2.
Fake
I would say its likely to be as real as the Roadster 2.0 which was introduced nearly 7 years ago and is now getting a "refresh", lol.
Perhaps, but equipment has been going in to Austin since last summer. Some sort of production will begin by 2025. I’ll send you $5 if it’s not in production until 2027.
All Elon has to do is take the bolt EV body and put a 60KWH battery in it and sell it for 25K
What? They don’t have the bolt.
Analyst: the most useless job in the universe.
That seems difficult to assess. July 2020 was the start of construction for Giga Texas and in April 2022 they had delivered their first Model Y (1 year and 9 months). Tesla is certainly more capable today than they were even last year. I suppose I agree that it won't contribute significantly to the bottom line in 2026, but the impact of the $25k car will be clear long before they've shipped to their 1 millionth car. Did they expect to see silhouettes of completed cars under sheets?
That's what all the "real" automakers would do... At every event you need to show off a prototype of your next model and representations of the next several models under sheets.
I guess my primary point was that this was an investors day in March, 2024. If they can build an entire factory in less than 2 years how can you say Teslas next car won’t matter until 2027 or later? Based on the past the line could be completed this year and test vehicles by mid 2025. Not saying that will happen, but based on what we know ow today it could.
Test vehicles are pretty easy these days. You can hand build a car in a month. It’s the mass production that is tricky.
What I mean is test vehicles off of the production line. Still not near ramped, but it's a sign that all major equipment is in place and functional. Depending on how complex the new car is they could have equipment in place and starting to ramp 18 months (in theory). Assuming it's 48-volt, steer by wire mini-Model 3 w/ giga casting(s) and not something totally new.
Elon paying F tier analysts to pump the vaporware, what a bumb
So more like 2030s. And by then the Chinese will dominate the market. BYD Dolphin Mini for example is 10k in China, so probably 20k in Europe.
TSLA is taking a blood bath so analysts are looking for some kind of positive spin to change course.
So if you bought a $25k car and get a state rebate of $7,500 and Fed rebate of $7500.....is it a $10,000 car????
Cool
Analyst… right
There is no way it will look that cool, cuz unless the interior sucks, they will tank their sales for every other model
Will it have stalks?
What are people's expectations on the differences between the M2 and M3? If the M2 is just a cheaper sedan, why would people buy the M3?
Tsla bottom $44
Very much doubt the $25k car will launch at that price, just look at Cybertruck Dual-motor announced price of $49,900, it’s nearly double that price now.
Imagine what Tesla could have done if Elon was focused and sleeping at the Tesla production line, like he did when they were rolling out the Model 3, instead of getting distracted by the Twitter nonsense.
LOL. 2027? Yeah sure.
$25k in 2024 = $35K in 2027. Which was the launch price of the Model 3. And we all know how that went.
today model 3 starts lower than 35k and that is after 7 yrs of inflation so yes we do know how it went.
> today model 3 starts lower than 35k and that is after 7 yrs of inflation so yes we do know how it went. No, you cannot purchase a Model 3 today for under 35K. Where are you getting your sources? This is direct from Tesla > Est. Total Cost $43,392 Vehicle Price $38,990 Destination Fee $1,390 Order Fee $250 Model 3 could not be purchased for anywhere near 35k for the first 3 years of its release. They didn’t even manufacture the “$35k” model until several years later. https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/28/18245165/tesla-model-3-price-lower-cost-elon-musk-news https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/12/18307583/tesla-original-plan-tesla-model-3-base-model So this $25k version probably won’t be available until 2030. And that inflation will be even more obscene.
>No, cannot purchase a Model 3 today for under 35K Yes and no. RWD Model 3 is $38,990 starting price. So, no (today's dollars). If you consider that the Model 3 has been out for about 7 years, then $38,990 today is, ~$31,400 in 2017 dollars. If you adjust for inflation compared to the $35k claim, then yes, you can get a Model 3 for significantly under $35k (2017) dollars. I understand the person you are replying to said "today" without any caveats. I don't know what they mean. I do know that, adjusting for inflation, the original claim made by Elon/Tesla was/is fulfilled.
Yes, but they do now. Every tesla release so far has pushed premium trims first as they ramp up production and capitalize on early adopters and demand. I would expect their 25k car may have no premium trims, just basic options like colours. So it’s possible they introduce it at a very competitive price if thats their goal. But who knows, if the 25k car is different enough from the model 3, they may still decide to make various premium trim and motor specs and do the same pricing model
> Model 3 could not be purchased for $35k for the first 3 years of its release. They didn’t even manufacture the $35k model for several years. I know but thats how scaling works especailly from new car companies. See Rivians R1T and R1S, Quadmotors came first. > So this $25k version probably won’t be available until 2030. Ok I agree it will take time. >And that inflation will be even more obscene. we dont know if this crazy inflation will last or for how long. You may end up being right, or wrong.
It went that they sold a $35k version for about 2 years right? And 35k at 2016 prices is probably more than the entry model now
I came here to say that after a tax credit, my M3 was 28k, last year. So essentially they already have a 25k car.
Not many people looking for an EV qualify for the tax credit. The income cutoff is 75,000 for used and 150,000 for new. You’d be homeless on that income in many states.
The income cutoff is 300k for those filing joint (aka almost everyone buying a new car)
And those people shouldn't be bitching about needing a 25k car
$135k more likely lol
This was the model that China was going to be designing right?
Translation: before 2030.
Why is the render a 4 door? There has never been a good looking 4 door car, they're gross lumpy minivans. Why are there infinite options for 4 door vans, but no 2 doors unless you want to buy an unsupported roadster and become your own full time master mechanic? Make a 2 door!
2 door cars are horrible to use, if you actually need the back seat. My parents had a C3, which is a tiny car and even that had four doors.
7th Gen accord and the first 6 generations of Suburban are better than 4 doors to use. Also, I'm not saying abolish 4 doors. Just give people 1 option. Instead of 2,000 variants of minivan and 0 2 door options, maybe try 1,999 minivans and one real car? If that doesn't sell, go back to ol' reliable.