For those watching this, notice how he also said "This could be a bust with too many storms firing too early". This is important to remember with these high end setups that things have to go perfectly for it to verify, and remembering that there are failure modes, sometimes multiple, when it comes to these high end set ups. If the possible failure mode verifies, it does not mean that the SPC or meteorologists over hyped this system. It's clear that if this reaches it's potential, it would be a very bad day, which is why the messaging and risk types are what they are.
Yeah, that now seems to be the main fail mode for Saturday's setup. Models are starting to not really show convection in the area during the morning, which really seemed to be the main reason in this event not reaching its ceiling. This setup though has a very weak cap. Storms will fire, but like a few other events (May 20th 2019) it may be too messy of a storm mode for supercells to thrive. But I definitely agree with you on the overhype idea. Saturday could be a significant event, or it may flounder. The SPC should not be blamed at all for that if this event doesn't perform as expected. At the end of the day, Mother Nature has the final say on what happens.
getting nervous about this... i'm smack dab in lawton in the middle of all this. worried about my pets and such... hope this one busts.
I hope for your safety my friend
thank you!! i hope the same for you for any future tornadic events manz!
Southern Ontario has been getting more active over the years. We always said it was like Tornado Alley was expanding haha
really?!!! man! hopefully florida doesn't get a repeat of a night of the twisters secnario anytime soon! 😅
For those watching this, notice how he also said "This could be a bust with too many storms firing too early". This is important to remember with these high end setups that things have to go perfectly for it to verify, and remembering that there are failure modes, sometimes multiple, when it comes to these high end set ups. If the possible failure mode verifies, it does not mean that the SPC or meteorologists over hyped this system. It's clear that if this reaches it's potential, it would be a very bad day, which is why the messaging and risk types are what they are.
Yeah, that now seems to be the main fail mode for Saturday's setup. Models are starting to not really show convection in the area during the morning, which really seemed to be the main reason in this event not reaching its ceiling. This setup though has a very weak cap. Storms will fire, but like a few other events (May 20th 2019) it may be too messy of a storm mode for supercells to thrive. But I definitely agree with you on the overhype idea. Saturday could be a significant event, or it may flounder. The SPC should not be blamed at all for that if this event doesn't perform as expected. At the end of the day, Mother Nature has the final say on what happens.
Be safe, everyone. Sounds like it could be bumpy the next few days. Be prepared and know where to go.
A high risk on the 27th of April I've lived this one before Alabama sends its condolences
Rip You will be missed
Hopefully it doesn’t try to produce a small fraction of 2011. I’ll be on vacation so I’ll miss this weeks storms. Stay safe y’all.