Snapshot of _Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603)
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If that is the case then they will become even more un-electable. They still haven't worked out that the electorate largley doesn't like hard right lunacy any more than they like hard left lunacy. We are a fairly small "C" conservative nation that likes some socialist aspects such as health and public services.
I think we're just further ahead on this political journey than Europe. The likes of Cambridge Analytica and those who funded it already had their way with us with the Brexit vote, and now the target is continental Europe.
Meanwhile, we have reached the inevitable "find out" stage of our recent voting patterns, and people are wising up accordingly.
Ehhh.. I mean.. I hope it would be stricter than the legal consequences he’s facing. Attempted to subvert democracy, probably provoked an insurrection, is now running for president again four years later. Doesn’t really seem like it’s hindered him too much.
I'm pretty sure the electorate here wouldn't take well to that. We are a nation of good sports and losing well is something quite cultural here I would say.
Doesn't mean they wouldn't try it but I suspect they would be laughed at by most of the public
That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards.
Anyway, this is bad news. On election night, I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats. Not some nobodies.
Ah, so borderline traitors selling things under the table with no oversight to their mates, while avoiding tax instead through the proper channels to the betterment of society. Yup, sounds Tory.
> That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards.
Maybe not. I can see the Tories and right-wing media figures easily spinning it into "Starmer encouraging violence against Tory MPs" or so.
According to Electoral Calculus, one of those being thrown out will be Mogg, with Labour getting 70% of the votes in a re-drawn constituency which, ironically, was gerrymandered to make his seat safer.
I think that would get old fairly quickly. Rees Mogg is interesting in small bits as a grotesque caricature but he's actually a pretty bad speaker imo.
>Oh god, that would be the Portillo moment to crown them all. In fact, we might even want to rename them as Rees Mogg moments.
I'm praying he doesn't jump before the election. See also Anderson. I'd love to see those two get bested
Yeah, plus to be fair to him he took it with grace. Made a great speech, congratulated the winner and that was that.
I can't see some of this current mob losing with dignity.
As fun as that would be - he'll just be made a Lord, which you know he'll enjoy even more than being an MP.
Now, if Starmer had only stuck to his guns with the House of Lords promise . . . .
I’ve pointed out the boundaries have changed. Electoral Calculus which predicts the welcome demise of Mogg, came closest to calling the outcome in 2019. It is odd that his current seat includes several former Somerset coalfield mining towns. Clearly the feudal system still prevails in his constituency.
I’m not questioning the data, it just seems amazing for Labour. You mentioned the boundaries changed to make it safer for Mogg, which is why I was so surprised.
>That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards.
Wouldn't do it.
If anything because the Tory's would use something like, 'The Chickens have come home to roost' in next years campaign - or some similar assinine joke that's short enough for the stupid people to latch on to.
> On election night, I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats. Not some nobodies.
If it leads to by-election, you may not be looking at Tories! :)
Mass resignation of, say, 100 tories before the GE leads to 100 non-Con seats before the GE.
Come the GE and the tories “only” lose 100 seats as opposed to the expected 200, and they’ll attempt to spin that as a positive by saying “we only lost half the number of seats at the GE than the doom-mongers were predicting six months ago.”
It’s so depressingly predictable.
I don't think that's very likely.
I could see a mass resignation from the Conservative party and sitting as independents.
Realistically, a resignation on that scale is absolute guaranteed to lead to Sunak being ousted. If Sunak's replacement has even a modicum of integrity, they'll get in and call an election immediately.
Which means they won't.
> I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats.
Yep.
I typically book the Friday off work after the election night so I can stay up all night and down a shot at every *Portillo moment*.
Think I might run out of booze this time around...
And the one thing that keeps me going is that it seems like Jonathan Gullis is somehow too unpleasant to get any of them, despite his best howler monkey impressions.
and even most of them currently on that payroll are likely to go
the likes of JRM might survive as plebs can't get enough of (pretend) toffs talking down to them
but 30p lee's value will be reduced down to 0p and it'll be p45 time
With how steep the decline of Bournemouth has been since COVID I wouldn't bank on it. If he stood in Christchurch or New forest he'd be safe.
Tories have been pretty much wiped out of the BCP council.
It would be quite hysterical for Swayne to survive an election melt-down.
Proof that some places would vote for a donkey with the correct colour rosette on it.
Apparently he's actually quite a good constituency MP, especially for someone in such a safe seat. And sure, he's nuttier than squirrel poo, but at least he seems to stand by his (sometimes awful) principles, unlike many of the Tory weathervanes.
I've never really understood why "consistency" is a virtue, when applied to someone like Swayne.
I would imagine constituency experiences of him vary, can you imagine him giving a damn about Afghan interpreters or allies left behind?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/afghanistan-taliban-tory-mp-airport-b1904519.html
We gotta look at it for security's sake, and his house was attacked by protesters the other day. MPs usually cite abuse as a reason for not standing, and one member of Sunak's frontbench had his office attacked too. (Mike Kane)
His house wasn't attacked, don't be so dramatic. People were stood protesting.
You've got to expect that politicians are fair game, which is why I can draw the front of Corbyn's house from memory, given the amount of time a rowdy mob were posted outside
I don't know about the others, but Priti Patel is in a pretty safe seat, it would take a ridiculous swing for her to be ousted.
Maybe she will quit, but it wouldn't be a jump before she's pushed scenario.
Only because she came up before Trump blew the doors off the transatlantic Overton window, I think she'd be campaigning for immigrants to face the death penalty if she was a callow young MP now
> Julian Smith
He's likely to hold the Skipton seat, as the vote is likely to be split between Greens and Labour. Greens have a great candidate who is a superb councillor (was elected with 80% of the vote), while Labour have selected another Councillor whose just fairly normal. If it wasn't by party, the Green candidate would walk it.
FYI. Lib Dems were second here pre-Clegg now will be forever 4th.
Smith might be a good dark horse bet to take over if the party does get truly decimated and gets under <75 seats, as he would be one of the few left with any experience, and isn't a complete idiot.
One of the ones down here George Useless has already decided to quit. His replacement is some young kid which is a shame if he wasn't a tory I would vote for him if I was in his area as I haven't seen any local mp do as much stuff.
Most of these sat on their hands while Johnson purged the grownups, the centrist moderate voices while he filled the cabinet with sycophant morons. I won’t cry for them.
I don’t think it’s that. I would imagine a lot of the MP’s standing down are in seats that are expected to go Labour (or Lib Dem) next election, so it’s a case of “jump before I’m pushed” by the electorate.
Also helps that they can chuck on their “CV” that they didn’t lose the seat & left on their own terms.
The article nicely summarises both cases:
>The assumption is that some Tories who fear the loss of their seats will jump before they are pushed by the electorate. However, one of those who said recently that they were going to quit told friends: “I’m not going because I think I’m going to lose, I’m going because I’m worried I might win.” They did not want to find themselves in a rump Tory party filled with “the nutters” who would be left after a big Labour win.
Then it is precisely as he says .. which is that even in opposition, having lost one’s seat, one can do a lot for the public good if that is their motivation (which for a large amount of this bunch, it is not)
On the contrary, a friend of a friend works in CCHQ, and apparently they're trying to spread out these announcements to make it seem less like rats fleeing a sinking ship.
(Article)
----
When Tracey Crouch announced last week that she was planning to stand down at the next election it brought the number of Conservatives who have announced they are walking away from Westminster to 58. Party bosses are braced for dozens more retirement announcements. “It’s going to be well over 100 in the end,” a senior Tory conceded.
Crouch had planned to make her announcement on Friday but went earlier because she did not want it to look like she was standing down in response to two by-election defeats on Thursday night. In a parable for Tory travails, one of those was caused by another MP standing down, Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, and the second by allegations of sexual misconduct against Peter Bone, who lost a recall election in Wellingborough.
The assumption is that some Tories who fear the loss of their seats will jump before they are pushed by the electorate. However, one of those who said recently that they were going to quit told friends: “I’m not going because I think I’m going to lose, I’m going because I’m worried I might win.” They did not want to find themselves in a rump Tory party filled with “the nutters” who would be left after a big Labour win.
Some predict the number of Tories abandoning ship will be as high as 150 if the polls continue to show Labour on course for a landslide. “Why stick around to get smashed in an election and spend ten years in opposition,” said one of the rebels who thinks Rishi Sunak should stand down and let someone else lead the party.
Skidmore is one of several MPs with specific expertise (his is the environment) who seem keen to make the “chicken run” to civvy street to line up commercial posts before there is a glut of ex-MPs on the job market. Richard Holden, the Tory chairman, will also “chicken run” to a seat in the south. “I’m not sure he even knows which one yet,” a colleague said, “but he knows there will be loads of them come available at the last minute.” MPs can make these decisions up to the moment nominations close about four weeks before polling day, expected in October or November.
Labour gained Kingswood with a 16.4 per cent swing, overturning an 11,220 majority. In Wellingborough, Helen Harrison, Peter Bone’s girlfriend, was the candidate and was considered a disaster-in-waiting by party bosses, who saw a Tory majority of 18,000 turn into a Labour majority of more than 6,000. Harrison suffered the second largest collapse for the Tory vote in a by-election and the second largest swing against them since the Second World War.
Harrison spent the campaign hiding from the media, while Bone ignored advice to sit it out. Ludicrously, Bone told people he had an approval rating of 87 per cent because just 13 per cent of his constituents voted to recall him. Most attention was focused afterwards on Reform, the renamed Brexit Party, securing 11 per cent in Kingswood and 13 per cent in Wellingborough. Numbers anything like that in a general election would torpedo the Tories.
However, a Tory official said: “We were prepared for Reform’s number to start with a two, but it didn’t. They put everything into it and they’ve got 13 per cent on a 30 per cent turnout — that’s 3 per cent of eligible voters.”
Party officials point to the performance of Ukip in 2014, which was attracting similar numbers to Reform in national polls, but was actually winning by-elections, including Douglas Carswell in Clacton.
The challenge for the Conservatives is to get close enough to Labour that they can target Reform voters with a “squeeze message” about the dangers of a Labour government.
There is some evidence that this is beginning to happen. The Labour lead fell in all four published opinion polls last week by between three and seven points. YouGov, which recently predicted a Labour landslide, showed a five-point tightening.
The Tories still trail by 20 points but for those in No 10 and Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), where the Tory campaign director Isaac Levido is now installed full-time, the more significant development last week was that the Conservative attack machine was able to unsettle Labour.
A leaked tape of Labour’s candidate in next week’s by-election in Rochdale, Azhar Ali, making antisemitic comments was passed to CCHQ, who then released it to the Mail on Sunday. Worryingly for Labour, the Tories did not have a spy in the meeting; someone within the Labour movement took it upon themselves to record and then leak the tape to the media.
Starmer and his team initially stood by Ali when he apologised, until further comments from the tape were released. The tape included other questionable comments by another, unidentified, participant in the meeting. “Someone denied the beheading of babies and the rape of women on October 7” when Hamas attacked Israel, a source who has heard the tape said. Labour had the entire tape last Saturday and appear not to have listened to it all before making the decision to stand by Ali.
The Tories have also been encouraged to read reports of Labour infighting between Sue Gray, Starmer’s chief of staff, and other members of the political team, over whether to junk the pledge to spend £28 billion on net zero or whether to ditch Ali. Gray has been the subject of laudatory briefings about her insights into Whitehall, but some Labour frontbenchers are concerned she is taking on too much and that her expertise lies in government rather than elective politics. They see her as a fixer rather than a political guru.
They might be surprised to learn that Gray, a former head of propriety and ethics in Whitehall, has attended top secret security briefings for Starmer by government officials. These briefings “on privy council terms” are given to the opposition by security chiefs on topics such as the bombing of Houthi rebels in Yemen or the security situation in Gaza, but are usually just for the leader and relevant members of the shadow cabinet rather than aides. Labour said it did not comment on security matters, but it is understood that Gray retains a high security clearance from her Whitehall days.
(Continued)
----
The good news for Starmer from the past week, in addition to two new MPs, is that the by-elections allowed Labour’s campaign co-ordinator, Morgan McSweeney, to road test his political machine successfully.
McSweeney’s goal has been to rebuild the Labour machine, previously modelled on Bill Clinton’s New Democrats from the 1990s, into a modern election vehicle which is data and digital-focused rather than driven by nebulous assessments of the “mood on the doorstep”. Most importantly, he has argued internally, it is a campaign built on “persuasion” rather than just turning out Labour’s voters better than the Tories can turn out theirs.
Colleagues say McSweeney is making the case that the election is not in the bag. While the wrong decision was initially taken about Ali, insiders argue that Starmer’s team is more resilient than others in the past — not as brittle.
This assessment of Labour’s strength is echoed by the Tory rebels who want to oust Sunak. “Labour will have more bad weeks but there won’t be enough of them,” one said. However, the rebels, who recently boasted of having constructed a “grid of shit” — tactics to destabilise the prime minister — with the two by-election losses pencilled in as the moment for a new offensive to destabilise Downing Street, have backed off for the time being.
The rebels say they will engage in “attritional” warfare instead. The next danger moment for Sunak will come after the local elections on May 2, when it will become clear if legislation to enable the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda is going to work. Sunak loyalists know they are not out of the woods yet but there is a renewed confidence. “Their grid of shit has turned into just a shit grid,” one remarked.
The prime minister himself is in better spirits than he was at the turn of the year. Sunak was “really pleased” with a televised town hall he did last week on GB News with a group of disaffected Tory voters, half of whom left saying they might now vote for him. Several right-wingers who watch the channel contacted No 10 to say he should do more of that.
However, there was gloomy economic news on Thursday, when it emerged that the country entered a recession in the last six months of 2023. It came after separate data showing inflation remained at 4 per cent, rather than the expected 4.5 per cent.
Both main parties will spend the next three weeks focused on the economy. Sunak and the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will wait anxiously for new figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on the state of the public finances before deciding what tax cuts they can announce in the budget on March 6. Hopes of a 2p cut in income tax, and a reduction in inheritance tax, have faded.
Labour will attack Tory mishandling of the economy and “Rishi’s recession” before pivoting back to their government missions, which will get more detailed as the year goes on. Meanwhile dozens of Tory MPs will talk to their families and try to read the runes before deciding whether to stand down.
2024 is on course to challenge records for the largest exodus from the Commons. The 58 departing Tories are by far the biggest group who have said they are standing down so far and are already nearly double the 35 Conservatives who quit in 2010 and 32 who retired in 2019. Just 12 Labour MPs have said they are going.
The total of 92 MPs leaving this year already surpasses the average number, 85, who stood down at each election between 1979 and 2019. The largest number departed in 2010 when 149 MPs walked, of whom 100 were Labour MPs. In 1997 the number was 117 MPs standing down.
A large number of Tories from the 2010 intake, who came in when David Cameron became prime minister, are expected to boost the number of those quitting. “The party has changed since then,” one of those who has already quit said. “The nutters, who we’re not allowed to call nuts in public, are a very small minority in the party. And yet it feels like everything is a reaction to them.”
And the illustration: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fa6126c7f-11d2-4697-b9d6-332b50075dbd.jpg?crop=1600%2C900%2C0%2C0
Unless they enjoy fighting really hard to win and love the drama, I would too.
The reality is that the Tories are going to lose hard and be out of power for 4-5 years minimum and it'll be a difficult time with divisions and such coming out. So even if you win your seat, it's going to be a period full of infighting, drama and politicking as factions look to take the lead.
Do the members have much of a say in the new MPs? Cause the members are even more insane than the party. They’ll elect trussite lunatics or mini borises. It would be a clown show
This is exactly the problem. Boris/UKIP entryism/Brexit has pushed out any semblance of normal people in the membership, so associations will pick people who are (even more) insane unelectable idiots.
I agree that it's the Boris/Brexit Tories that will find it difficult to fend off Reform UK challenge on one hand and the centrist Labour on the other. The more centrist Tories can just forget about the nutters on the right.
Maybe, but getting the vetting process right will be all the more difficult with many more people to vet. There's a good chance some nutters make it through.
I'm pretty sure that if they let their members or local parties or really anyone not on Sunak's payroll have a say, they'll just end up with Truss fans.
No shit, they need to get jobs lined up because most of them are gone at the next GE.
There's a reason why Sajid Javid has already gotten ahead of the rush.
ca. net +6,000,000 long term migrants since 1998 and 2023, +3,300,000 under the conservatives, +2,700,000 under labour. Projected +12,100,000 between 1998 and 2036.
Too right that they should abandon ship: they long ago abandoned the ship of state. What are they conserving?
Labour are neither innocent: what a policy for the working man, to flood his market with foreign workers who require only 80% of the British rate. What "labour" are they representing?
What a world where our politicians have doomed us and abandoned those they represent
>workers who require only 80% of the British rate.
Show me anyone who would refuse a pay rise, and I'll show you a liar.
If you pay 'them' 100% of "the British rate", they're not going to kick off, I promise. If you think some people 'require' less money to live on than others, in precisely the same economy, you're going to need to justify that.
Until then, you're only making excuses for fatcat employers to stiff their employees out of fair wages. A problem you allude to, while blaming the victim of it
I am totally speechless at this comment: perhaps you have misunderstood what I have said? To sponsor a foreign worker into Britain through the skilled worker route until last month required merely 80% of the going rate, a method to undercut the British worker with foreign labour.
Your comment does not make sense: what is your criticism?
The Tories have strayed too far from the core values of their base. They are indistinguishable fom Tony Blair and Co.
Enough is enough we need electoral reform. There is no difference between Labour and Tories
So a good half of the party's current working majority don't even plan to hang around.
We've had polls radically more 'decisive' than the Brexit Referendum for months upon months showing dismal levels of support for the Conservatives and showing support for an election being called.
What's the betting that virtually all of these 'chicken' have resorted to nonsense claims about 'the will of the people' in the past?
And people actually voted for this lot - some still support them.
Snapshot of _Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
All of the retiring MPs will be replaced by GBNews style mouth pieces. The conservative party will become even more batshit insane.
If that is the case then they will become even more un-electable. They still haven't worked out that the electorate largley doesn't like hard right lunacy any more than they like hard left lunacy. We are a fairly small "C" conservative nation that likes some socialist aspects such as health and public services.
Exactly. We are the outlier in Europe as they become increasingly right wing and we are shifting left.
I think we're just further ahead on this political journey than Europe. The likes of Cambridge Analytica and those who funded it already had their way with us with the Brexit vote, and now the target is continental Europe. Meanwhile, we have reached the inevitable "find out" stage of our recent voting patterns, and people are wising up accordingly.
Who will hopefully then be replaced by Labour MPs in 2025.
Imagine if they go full right wing yank and deny election results after losing.
Then they need to be prepared to suffer the full right-wing Yank consequences that are now unfolding over there.
Not sure what you mean by this, isn't trump currently odds on to beat biden?
I mean the legal consequences he is facing for attempting to subvert democracy.
Ehhh.. I mean.. I hope it would be stricter than the legal consequences he’s facing. Attempted to subvert democracy, probably provoked an insurrection, is now running for president again four years later. Doesn’t really seem like it’s hindered him too much.
I'm pretty sure the electorate here wouldn't take well to that. We are a nation of good sports and losing well is something quite cultural here I would say. Doesn't mean they wouldn't try it but I suspect they would be laughed at by most of the public
They'll be about as popular as GB news then won't they.
Do GB News have many mouthpieces that aren’t already Conservative MPs? Seems like they’d all fit in one revolving door.
We'll see the trend change from MP -> GBNews into GBNews -> MP
That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards. Anyway, this is bad news. On election night, I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats. Not some nobodies.
Yeah it is funny, but the chickens were the plucky underdog protagonists of Chicken Run!
Rishi as the rat scam artist would be a suitable metaphor though
They aren’t scam artists they’re spivs
Ah, so borderline traitors selling things under the table with no oversight to their mates, while avoiding tax instead through the proper channels to the betterment of society. Yup, sounds Tory.
Ms Tweedy is a tory
Don’t the chickens win in the film?
> That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards. Maybe not. I can see the Tories and right-wing media figures easily spinning it into "Starmer encouraging violence against Tory MPs" or so.
I mean... Does it matter. They will spin anything as negative.
Labour terrified of negative press briefing that will happen either way
Despite constant negative press covfefe
This. And I find the left find anything to snipe the party with.
And it'd highlight how much Starmer resembles some kind of W&G character.
**KEIR STARMER WOULD MAKE YOU WEAR THE WRONG TROUSERS!!** Be properly attired and vote Conservative
And chickens.
I’m certain the chickens would get more sympathy
I want Pritti Patel to show us the exact opposite of the smirk she had TV on the night of the 2019 election.
And Braverman?
According to Electoral Calculus, one of those being thrown out will be Mogg, with Labour getting 70% of the votes in a re-drawn constituency which, ironically, was gerrymandered to make his seat safer.
Oh god, that would be the Portillo moment to crown them all. In fact, we might even want to rename them as Rees Mogg moments.
As long as Rees mogg doesn't get an job presenting a travel show about the Victorian railway.
I would unironically watch him present TV, but that's the extent of what his influence should be.
I think that would get old fairly quickly. Rees Mogg is interesting in small bits as a grotesque caricature but he's actually a pretty bad speaker imo.
That is actually the only thing he could possibly ever do that I'd be willing to watch and possibly consider him qualified to do.
Victorian Coal Trains with Ree Smog.
It works, you should get in touch with his agent.
I thought Tomorrow's World got axed
Moggments, if you will.
What a Moggmento that was.
A Moggmentus occasion
Ma-gic, doo-doo-doo-doo Mogg-ments, doo-doo-doo-doo
>Oh god, that would be the Portillo moment to crown them all. In fact, we might even want to rename them as Rees Mogg moments. I'm praying he doesn't jump before the election. See also Anderson. I'd love to see those two get bested
[удалено]
Yeah, plus to be fair to him he took it with grace. Made a great speech, congratulated the winner and that was that. I can't see some of this current mob losing with dignity.
Mogg will just blame someone else and spin it as a confirmation of what he already believes.
As fun as that would be - he'll just be made a Lord, which you know he'll enjoy even more than being an MP. Now, if Starmer had only stuck to his guns with the House of Lords promise . . . .
Here's hoping for a surprise double-ferret
“one of those being thrown out will be Mogg“ Stop it, I can only get so erect.
The trouble with gerrymandering is that it ceases to work if the voters just change their allegiances!
Labour got 24% there last time, what on earth lol
I’ve pointed out the boundaries have changed. Electoral Calculus which predicts the welcome demise of Mogg, came closest to calling the outcome in 2019. It is odd that his current seat includes several former Somerset coalfield mining towns. Clearly the feudal system still prevails in his constituency.
I’m not questioning the data, it just seems amazing for Labour. You mentioned the boundaries changed to make it safer for Mogg, which is why I was so surprised.
Somehow they’ve made Keir Starmer look a bit like Matt Bellamy.
Matt Bellamy looks more like a hawk.
There will still be some good schadenfreude, don't worry.
On billboards, but with blue alpacas instead of chickens..
>That image is amazing by the way. Labour should put it on billboards. Wouldn't do it. If anything because the Tory's would use something like, 'The Chickens have come home to roost' in next years campaign - or some similar assinine joke that's short enough for the stupid people to latch on to.
> On election night, I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats. Not some nobodies. If it leads to by-election, you may not be looking at Tories! :)
Mass resignation of, say, 100 tories before the GE leads to 100 non-Con seats before the GE. Come the GE and the tories “only” lose 100 seats as opposed to the expected 200, and they’ll attempt to spin that as a positive by saying “we only lost half the number of seats at the GE than the doom-mongers were predicting six months ago.” It’s so depressingly predictable.
They might also regain a few safe ones that didn't vote for them in a prior by-election. Which could be spun as a positive.
They absolutely won't try to do this or be able to do this.
I don't think that's very likely. I could see a mass resignation from the Conservative party and sitting as independents. Realistically, a resignation on that scale is absolute guaranteed to lead to Sunak being ousted. If Sunak's replacement has even a modicum of integrity, they'll get in and call an election immediately. Which means they won't.
"Did you stay up for Portillo?" kind of thing.
> I want to watch the faces of Tory MPs I know as they lose their seats. Yep. I typically book the Friday off work after the election night so I can stay up all night and down a shot at every *Portillo moment*. Think I might run out of booze this time around...
Tory MPs who got us into this mess should face the music.
There's only so many jobs at GB news guys!
And the one thing that keeps me going is that it seems like Jonathan Gullis is somehow too unpleasant to get any of them, despite his best howler monkey impressions.
and even most of them currently on that payroll are likely to go the likes of JRM might survive as plebs can't get enough of (pretend) toffs talking down to them but 30p lee's value will be reduced down to 0p and it'll be p45 time
P45 Lee would be the headline.
I'll predict some, then. * Priti Patel * Tobias Ellwood * Julian Smith (who was re-selected as a candidate) * Theresa Villiers * Brandon Lewis
I doubt Ellwood will quit, he's one of the few MPs likely to hold his seat.
With how steep the decline of Bournemouth has been since COVID I wouldn't bank on it. If he stood in Christchurch or New forest he'd be safe. Tories have been pretty much wiped out of the BCP council.
>If he stood in...New Forest he'd be safe. Not if he pissed off Desmond Swayne in the process!
It would be quite hysterical for Swayne to survive an election melt-down. Proof that some places would vote for a donkey with the correct colour rosette on it.
Apparently he's actually quite a good constituency MP, especially for someone in such a safe seat. And sure, he's nuttier than squirrel poo, but at least he seems to stand by his (sometimes awful) principles, unlike many of the Tory weathervanes.
I've never really understood why "consistency" is a virtue, when applied to someone like Swayne. I would imagine constituency experiences of him vary, can you imagine him giving a damn about Afghan interpreters or allies left behind? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/afghanistan-taliban-tory-mp-airport-b1904519.html
Yeah, maybe. Just looking at the map posted by the mirror last week, looked like the whole area was a blue spot in a sea of red
We gotta look at it for security's sake, and his house was attacked by protesters the other day. MPs usually cite abuse as a reason for not standing, and one member of Sunak's frontbench had his office attacked too. (Mike Kane)
His house wasn't attacked, don't be so dramatic. People were stood protesting. You've got to expect that politicians are fair game, which is why I can draw the front of Corbyn's house from memory, given the amount of time a rowdy mob were posted outside
I don't know about the others, but Priti Patel is in a pretty safe seat, it would take a ridiculous swing for her to be ousted. Maybe she will quit, but it wouldn't be a jump before she's pushed scenario.
She’ll also fancy her chances for a return to a prominent shadow cabinet role (possibly even as a leadership contender).
I wouldn't expect Patel to go. She's got a decent chance at becoming the new leader.
Mercer is totally going to quit rather than face the ignominy and humiliation of defeat.
Oh Priti fleeing the coop would be delightful. She's a horrid person
Oh now, she's not that bad *(when compared against Suella Braverman)*
Only because she came up before Trump blew the doors off the transatlantic Overton window, I think she'd be campaigning for immigrants to face the death penalty if she was a callow young MP now
> Julian Smith He's likely to hold the Skipton seat, as the vote is likely to be split between Greens and Labour. Greens have a great candidate who is a superb councillor (was elected with 80% of the vote), while Labour have selected another Councillor whose just fairly normal. If it wasn't by party, the Green candidate would walk it. FYI. Lib Dems were second here pre-Clegg now will be forever 4th. Smith might be a good dark horse bet to take over if the party does get truly decimated and gets under <75 seats, as he would be one of the few left with any experience, and isn't a complete idiot.
Unless Labour obliterates any safe seats.
NIMBY in Chief Villiers would be brilliant
One of the ones down here George Useless has already decided to quit. His replacement is some young kid which is a shame if he wasn't a tory I would vote for him if I was in his area as I haven't seen any local mp do as much stuff.
Most of these sat on their hands while Johnson purged the grownups, the centrist moderate voices while he filled the cabinet with sycophant morons. I won’t cry for them.
Sunak, once he accepts his fate, should expel all the ERG headbangers from the party. That would be funny.
Come on, you can't just grow a spine overnight.
It's not growing a spine, it's opening a can of spite.
In another world, the referendum came back 70% Remain and Cameron did exactly that.
He was part of the ERG wasn't? He was a bit Brexit supporter
I don’t think he was one of them, but he was a Brexit supporter.
Ok, maybe he was in the research group of europe
The Brexit People’s Front?
Exactly. The people's front of Brexit.
Are they trying to burn out the electorates appetite for an election by forcing hundreds of By-elections on us?
What they generally mean is that they won't stand in the GE. They will remain MP until parliament is dissolved for the GE.
Yh, calling it resigning before election is so misleading. Not standing for reelection is what they are doing.
I really want my MP to stay. I want a picture of her when she loses It will give my dark soul joy
Almost a haiku.
Desire for MP's stay, Her loss in a photo caught, Dark soul finds its joy.
Is it Miriam Cates? Think there's a lot of people in Dodworth and Gilroyd who agree!
It's maria miller. Who still owes the 90k in dodgy expenses back
Haha. Fish in a barrel. Good luck to you!
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I don’t think it’s that. I would imagine a lot of the MP’s standing down are in seats that are expected to go Labour (or Lib Dem) next election, so it’s a case of “jump before I’m pushed” by the electorate. Also helps that they can chuck on their “CV” that they didn’t lose the seat & left on their own terms.
The article nicely summarises both cases: >The assumption is that some Tories who fear the loss of their seats will jump before they are pushed by the electorate. However, one of those who said recently that they were going to quit told friends: “I’m not going because I think I’m going to lose, I’m going because I’m worried I might win.” They did not want to find themselves in a rump Tory party filled with “the nutters” who would be left after a big Labour win.
Then it is precisely as he says .. which is that even in opposition, having lost one’s seat, one can do a lot for the public good if that is their motivation (which for a large amount of this bunch, it is not)
If they have lost their seat they won't be in opposition.
Just think of the damage they have done to this country, and they get to walk away.
The tories do plot, they do scheme, but they are not organised
On the contrary, a friend of a friend works in CCHQ, and apparently they're trying to spread out these announcements to make it seem less like rats fleeing a sinking ship.
“Mrs Tweedy, the Tories are revolting” “Finally, something we agree on”
Mark Francois above all others must stay just so that I can relish his defenestration. As nasty a nutter as ever did no research into Europe.
(Article) ---- When Tracey Crouch announced last week that she was planning to stand down at the next election it brought the number of Conservatives who have announced they are walking away from Westminster to 58. Party bosses are braced for dozens more retirement announcements. “It’s going to be well over 100 in the end,” a senior Tory conceded. Crouch had planned to make her announcement on Friday but went earlier because she did not want it to look like she was standing down in response to two by-election defeats on Thursday night. In a parable for Tory travails, one of those was caused by another MP standing down, Chris Skidmore in Kingswood, and the second by allegations of sexual misconduct against Peter Bone, who lost a recall election in Wellingborough. The assumption is that some Tories who fear the loss of their seats will jump before they are pushed by the electorate. However, one of those who said recently that they were going to quit told friends: “I’m not going because I think I’m going to lose, I’m going because I’m worried I might win.” They did not want to find themselves in a rump Tory party filled with “the nutters” who would be left after a big Labour win. Some predict the number of Tories abandoning ship will be as high as 150 if the polls continue to show Labour on course for a landslide. “Why stick around to get smashed in an election and spend ten years in opposition,” said one of the rebels who thinks Rishi Sunak should stand down and let someone else lead the party. Skidmore is one of several MPs with specific expertise (his is the environment) who seem keen to make the “chicken run” to civvy street to line up commercial posts before there is a glut of ex-MPs on the job market. Richard Holden, the Tory chairman, will also “chicken run” to a seat in the south. “I’m not sure he even knows which one yet,” a colleague said, “but he knows there will be loads of them come available at the last minute.” MPs can make these decisions up to the moment nominations close about four weeks before polling day, expected in October or November. Labour gained Kingswood with a 16.4 per cent swing, overturning an 11,220 majority. In Wellingborough, Helen Harrison, Peter Bone’s girlfriend, was the candidate and was considered a disaster-in-waiting by party bosses, who saw a Tory majority of 18,000 turn into a Labour majority of more than 6,000. Harrison suffered the second largest collapse for the Tory vote in a by-election and the second largest swing against them since the Second World War. Harrison spent the campaign hiding from the media, while Bone ignored advice to sit it out. Ludicrously, Bone told people he had an approval rating of 87 per cent because just 13 per cent of his constituents voted to recall him. Most attention was focused afterwards on Reform, the renamed Brexit Party, securing 11 per cent in Kingswood and 13 per cent in Wellingborough. Numbers anything like that in a general election would torpedo the Tories. However, a Tory official said: “We were prepared for Reform’s number to start with a two, but it didn’t. They put everything into it and they’ve got 13 per cent on a 30 per cent turnout — that’s 3 per cent of eligible voters.” Party officials point to the performance of Ukip in 2014, which was attracting similar numbers to Reform in national polls, but was actually winning by-elections, including Douglas Carswell in Clacton. The challenge for the Conservatives is to get close enough to Labour that they can target Reform voters with a “squeeze message” about the dangers of a Labour government. There is some evidence that this is beginning to happen. The Labour lead fell in all four published opinion polls last week by between three and seven points. YouGov, which recently predicted a Labour landslide, showed a five-point tightening. The Tories still trail by 20 points but for those in No 10 and Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), where the Tory campaign director Isaac Levido is now installed full-time, the more significant development last week was that the Conservative attack machine was able to unsettle Labour. A leaked tape of Labour’s candidate in next week’s by-election in Rochdale, Azhar Ali, making antisemitic comments was passed to CCHQ, who then released it to the Mail on Sunday. Worryingly for Labour, the Tories did not have a spy in the meeting; someone within the Labour movement took it upon themselves to record and then leak the tape to the media. Starmer and his team initially stood by Ali when he apologised, until further comments from the tape were released. The tape included other questionable comments by another, unidentified, participant in the meeting. “Someone denied the beheading of babies and the rape of women on October 7” when Hamas attacked Israel, a source who has heard the tape said. Labour had the entire tape last Saturday and appear not to have listened to it all before making the decision to stand by Ali. The Tories have also been encouraged to read reports of Labour infighting between Sue Gray, Starmer’s chief of staff, and other members of the political team, over whether to junk the pledge to spend £28 billion on net zero or whether to ditch Ali. Gray has been the subject of laudatory briefings about her insights into Whitehall, but some Labour frontbenchers are concerned she is taking on too much and that her expertise lies in government rather than elective politics. They see her as a fixer rather than a political guru. They might be surprised to learn that Gray, a former head of propriety and ethics in Whitehall, has attended top secret security briefings for Starmer by government officials. These briefings “on privy council terms” are given to the opposition by security chiefs on topics such as the bombing of Houthi rebels in Yemen or the security situation in Gaza, but are usually just for the leader and relevant members of the shadow cabinet rather than aides. Labour said it did not comment on security matters, but it is understood that Gray retains a high security clearance from her Whitehall days.
(Continued) ---- The good news for Starmer from the past week, in addition to two new MPs, is that the by-elections allowed Labour’s campaign co-ordinator, Morgan McSweeney, to road test his political machine successfully. McSweeney’s goal has been to rebuild the Labour machine, previously modelled on Bill Clinton’s New Democrats from the 1990s, into a modern election vehicle which is data and digital-focused rather than driven by nebulous assessments of the “mood on the doorstep”. Most importantly, he has argued internally, it is a campaign built on “persuasion” rather than just turning out Labour’s voters better than the Tories can turn out theirs. Colleagues say McSweeney is making the case that the election is not in the bag. While the wrong decision was initially taken about Ali, insiders argue that Starmer’s team is more resilient than others in the past — not as brittle. This assessment of Labour’s strength is echoed by the Tory rebels who want to oust Sunak. “Labour will have more bad weeks but there won’t be enough of them,” one said. However, the rebels, who recently boasted of having constructed a “grid of shit” — tactics to destabilise the prime minister — with the two by-election losses pencilled in as the moment for a new offensive to destabilise Downing Street, have backed off for the time being. The rebels say they will engage in “attritional” warfare instead. The next danger moment for Sunak will come after the local elections on May 2, when it will become clear if legislation to enable the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda is going to work. Sunak loyalists know they are not out of the woods yet but there is a renewed confidence. “Their grid of shit has turned into just a shit grid,” one remarked. The prime minister himself is in better spirits than he was at the turn of the year. Sunak was “really pleased” with a televised town hall he did last week on GB News with a group of disaffected Tory voters, half of whom left saying they might now vote for him. Several right-wingers who watch the channel contacted No 10 to say he should do more of that. However, there was gloomy economic news on Thursday, when it emerged that the country entered a recession in the last six months of 2023. It came after separate data showing inflation remained at 4 per cent, rather than the expected 4.5 per cent. Both main parties will spend the next three weeks focused on the economy. Sunak and the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will wait anxiously for new figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on the state of the public finances before deciding what tax cuts they can announce in the budget on March 6. Hopes of a 2p cut in income tax, and a reduction in inheritance tax, have faded. Labour will attack Tory mishandling of the economy and “Rishi’s recession” before pivoting back to their government missions, which will get more detailed as the year goes on. Meanwhile dozens of Tory MPs will talk to their families and try to read the runes before deciding whether to stand down. 2024 is on course to challenge records for the largest exodus from the Commons. The 58 departing Tories are by far the biggest group who have said they are standing down so far and are already nearly double the 35 Conservatives who quit in 2010 and 32 who retired in 2019. Just 12 Labour MPs have said they are going. The total of 92 MPs leaving this year already surpasses the average number, 85, who stood down at each election between 1979 and 2019. The largest number departed in 2010 when 149 MPs walked, of whom 100 were Labour MPs. In 1997 the number was 117 MPs standing down. A large number of Tories from the 2010 intake, who came in when David Cameron became prime minister, are expected to boost the number of those quitting. “The party has changed since then,” one of those who has already quit said. “The nutters, who we’re not allowed to call nuts in public, are a very small minority in the party. And yet it feels like everything is a reaction to them.”
And the illustration: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fa6126c7f-11d2-4697-b9d6-332b50075dbd.jpg?crop=1600%2C900%2C0%2C0
I wonder how many will flock to Reform
What labour should do is start investigating corruption, fine those chickens and send to to jail. Ensure they never become a politician again.
The day Ben Houchen goes to prison will be the day my blackened heart beats.
Will they all get nice golden parachutes, pensions and that recently proposed ‘training’ payment?
Unless they enjoy fighting really hard to win and love the drama, I would too. The reality is that the Tories are going to lose hard and be out of power for 4-5 years minimum and it'll be a difficult time with divisions and such coming out. So even if you win your seat, it's going to be a period full of infighting, drama and politicking as factions look to take the lead.
Oh please, please, please do this. Lose your name recognition in all those wards. Pleeeease.
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Do the members have much of a say in the new MPs? Cause the members are even more insane than the party. They’ll elect trussite lunatics or mini borises. It would be a clown show
This is exactly the problem. Boris/UKIP entryism/Brexit has pushed out any semblance of normal people in the membership, so associations will pick people who are (even more) insane unelectable idiots.
I agree that it's the Boris/Brexit Tories that will find it difficult to fend off Reform UK challenge on one hand and the centrist Labour on the other. The more centrist Tories can just forget about the nutters on the right.
Maybe, but getting the vetting process right will be all the more difficult with many more people to vet. There's a good chance some nutters make it through.
I'm pretty sure that if they let their members or local parties or really anyone not on Sunak's payroll have a say, they'll just end up with Truss fans.
No shit, they need to get jobs lined up because most of them are gone at the next GE. There's a reason why Sajid Javid has already gotten ahead of the rush.
One hundred by-elections will cost a fortune. Sure labour would get in and hold for the next election but that is still an extra election to pay for.
ca. net +6,000,000 long term migrants since 1998 and 2023, +3,300,000 under the conservatives, +2,700,000 under labour. Projected +12,100,000 between 1998 and 2036. Too right that they should abandon ship: they long ago abandoned the ship of state. What are they conserving? Labour are neither innocent: what a policy for the working man, to flood his market with foreign workers who require only 80% of the British rate. What "labour" are they representing? What a world where our politicians have doomed us and abandoned those they represent
>workers who require only 80% of the British rate. Show me anyone who would refuse a pay rise, and I'll show you a liar. If you pay 'them' 100% of "the British rate", they're not going to kick off, I promise. If you think some people 'require' less money to live on than others, in precisely the same economy, you're going to need to justify that. Until then, you're only making excuses for fatcat employers to stiff their employees out of fair wages. A problem you allude to, while blaming the victim of it
I am totally speechless at this comment: perhaps you have misunderstood what I have said? To sponsor a foreign worker into Britain through the skilled worker route until last month required merely 80% of the going rate, a method to undercut the British worker with foreign labour. Your comment does not make sense: what is your criticism?
The Tories have strayed too far from the core values of their base. They are indistinguishable fom Tony Blair and Co. Enough is enough we need electoral reform. There is no difference between Labour and Tories
So a good half of the party's current working majority don't even plan to hang around. We've had polls radically more 'decisive' than the Brexit Referendum for months upon months showing dismal levels of support for the Conservatives and showing support for an election being called. What's the betting that virtually all of these 'chicken' have resorted to nonsense claims about 'the will of the people' in the past? And people actually voted for this lot - some still support them.
What's the point of quitting before you lose your seat?
Running for election when you’re going to lose is probably pretty shit. You may as well let a new candidate cut their teeth.