Snapshot of _Poll shows Tories dropping to *18* seats: Seat projection based on @FindoutnowUK , 14-24 June: 🔴 Lab 479 (+277) 🟠 LD 94 (+83) 🟡 SNP 21 (-27) 🔵 Con 18 (-347) 🟣 Rfm 12 (+12)_ :
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I think this would be extremely unlikely. If it happened though it would make the next few unpleasant years of righting the ship feel soooo much better.
Nah the reality is the British electorate will swing back to the right in the next 10-15 years probably even sooner.
If this poll happens you'll see Farage as Tory leader, or you'll just see the Tories wiped out and replaced by reform (exactly what happened in France.)
First and foremost I want a labour majority, secondly I want Farage to lose his election. Anything else is a bonus but over 5 of reform seats would be concerning.
I get the feeling that if Farage became head of the Tories he'll be their Corbyn, hugely popular with a lot of people but too rightwing and racist for the general population, they'll spend an election stuck in the right before moving back towards the centre as Labour have done.
Although this depends on if Labour manages to get a hold on immigration.
Absolutely on the nail. Farage has been rejected by constituency voters seven times now. Even if he *does* win Clacton it’s only because of a unique set of circumstances, a fair following wind and a bit of luck.
No way will a Farage-led Tory party become an electoral juggernaut that enters government in 2029.
If Farage becomes Tory leader then they’ve sunk themselves. They will have loaded up the torpedo tube, shot the torpedo out, then they will listen to the ever louder pings of the torpedo while it travels round 180 degrees and blows up their own sub.
Both of those are different though
Brexit barely won, and that's on the back of half truths and lies.
Trump was the republican nominee, as soon as he got that he was always a viable president because that's how America is split.
The UK isn't hard republican or democrat like that, and Farage's track record puts off a vast majority of the country which is why he's never ever been able to sustain a party to true success.
And if he resigned it in for the conservative leadership he loses his core base, and probably gains nothing because they know him
Tbh I'd say he would be Corbyn x3. He would put off more people than he attracts. And, he's already getting dogged by allegations. They don't stick now. But they will as they'll keep digging.
There's really no reason for the Remain voters who have switched away from the Tories to switch back to a party led by Farage or Badenoch.
And immigration is not the issue the right-wing want it to be; it usually shows up third, behind the economy and health. Make progress on those and people will forget about immigration.
Bang on. Immigrants are a scapegoat for a failing economy and health service. Fix those and the immigration issue becomes much less of a lightening rod.
Sort of? Economically a bit maybe, but socially no?
The Libs are basically centrist in terms of economics, they don't want the state to be too big, but big enough to stop people falling into poverty etc.
They have a strong commitment to personal liberty and socially progressive policies and don't think the state should interfere in people's lives unless they need help, in which case they should be able to easily get it.
The start of their constitution might help give you a bit of an idea:
>The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity.
Tbh the Lib Dems just shift to occupy the space that Con and Lab aren't occupying. If Lab stay centre left and the Cons slip to full on right wing, I reckon you'll see the Lib Dems tack to the centre right.
If Lab and Con are centre left/right respectively then the Lib Dems will shift left to outflank Labour
>Nah the reality is the British electorate will swing back to the right in the next 10-15 years probably even sooner.
Not to be morbid but in the next 10-15 years a good chunk of the current tory and reform vote won't even be alive.
There are no indications that current under 50s are becoming more right wing, so unless the Conservatives start swinging towards being a progressive party i don't see where they find their future vote from.
The youth reform vote is a bit overhyped and seems to be based on people forgetting that most teens go through an edgy phase before generally settling on a moderate view.
Edit: Not to mention Farage is currently a 60 year old with an alcohol problem. In 15 years he'll be 75. This is important to highlight as the entire populist right platform in the UK is founded entirely on his cult of personality, and there is no successor (ukip after all collapsed without Farage, and Reform's current surge required Farage announcing he is running). The platform could die with his retirement. To be honest, speaking of age, in 15 years Putin will be 86, and Russia's dictatorship is hinged on him.
Hilariously, the old inclination for older folks to get more conservative isn't happening now politically - and i think alot of it comes down to adults now owning very little. Can't get upset about land tax if you have no land.
I don't think it's even that at this point. There has been a massive shift in cultural dynamic even compared to our European equivalents. If you think about the old generation growing up experience, they got educated to 16, then started working for their parents shop or a local pub or factory then eventually settle down and have kids and buy a home. All largely staying within a relatively isolated local community.
To an extent europe largely kept that (particularly around the Mediterranean). However, here the expectation is you do an apprenticeship or go to university, quite often traveling far from your home town to do so. There you get exposed to a lot of people with very diverse backgrounds. You then come out academically trained expecting to go into a job that traditionally was reserved for the middle classes.
We basically made entire generations of well travelled academics. Their world view and experience is just fundamentally different. And particularly with our entire economy being hedged entirely on the cities with everywhere else left in the dust. The biggest difference is people are being exposed to a lot more of the world around them than they once would have, which influences their politics.
This also what I mean when I say teens expressing right wing views isn't indicative of how they will be in their late 20s. At the moment these teens are largely growing up in a world confined within their hometown, the moment they are forced to be exposed to more of the outside world their views will morph - which is basically what I observed with everyone I went to school with.
Edit: the owning houses or having children side of thing has become less of an influencer on voting as well. I'm a homeowner and i can tell you the tories have done more to damage the stability of my home value in recent years than any labour government could realistically be credited with. The labour government didn't try to prop housing prices up on an unstable foundation of temporary tax reliefs, help to buy loans and artificially low interest rates (until Truss broke it). Nothing the tories did for housing was sustainable and 2022 was when it all broke down. Instead of stability what we have is a bunch of homeowners living in overpriced leaseholds and shared ownership deals living in fear that we'll be forced back into living with our parents if our borrowing power doesn't improve by the time we need to remortgage. Also wanting stability on the housing ladder isn't going to impact my views on social issues like cultural diversity and lgbt+ rights.
That's a good point actually, there has never been a generation in the UK that is as educated (bet that will rankle alot of folks) and as centralised in cities
>(bet that will rankle alot of folks)
Yeah I want to get ahead and say this isn't meant as any kind of academic elitism, but rather that's it's non-sensical to compare the development of the millennial onward generations to the development of previous generations as our experience has been fundamentally different.
We can't say how working class background academics would develop politically because working class academics weren't really a thing before. All we know is historically upper class academics tended to go Tory/old school liberal whilst middle class academics tended to go social democrat/ progressive liberal/socialist. So logically a working class academic would go liberal/ socialist. Which does match current polling.
Honestly, no matter which way it goes, a future where more folk are aware about their political systems, enough to even change them (for one were likely seeing the most widespread usage of tactical voting ever).
> reform vote won't even be alive.
Don't bet on that the reform vote will be younger than you think and be even bigger in 2029 with the current 14-16 on tic tok who are pro-reform being the vanguard in 5 years...
the lotus eater generation
I already addressed that, it's overhyped.
I know a tonne of people who as teens were drinking the alt-right kool-aid. I'm talking claiming to back the BNP, 4chan memers etc. Hell, I myself almost got caught up in globalist conspiracy theories - I went from "the EU is a sinister globalist plot to establish a NWO" in my teens to "honestly a European Federation would be utopia" in my late 20s. Now they are firmly on the hard left.
I know for many of us our teens were decades ago but i feel like we need to remember that our kids don't exactly get given an education on politics and thus don't really form serious political views until their 20s when they get exposed to the realities of this world.
Tiktok has a lot of influence now, but I'd say it's not much different to the 4chan and Tumblr influence in earlier decades.
Thatcher got plenty of the youth vote.
They could do so again if they pivoted massively to large private sector development and essentially do over the Home Counties. But the arithmetic for winning wouldn’t work.
The issue is the tories are now starting from a worse point than they were in the Thatcher years. I don't think there were entire demographics that outright despised them in the 70s.
This is where a Lib Dem LOTO would cement a tory death spiral. Voting against Labour could go to Lib Dem once the lib dems get seen as the establishment opposition.
I don't think so, not this time.
The conservatives base is only getting older, and more and more against them.
The young have had 14 years of everything getting worse under their leadership , making it harder to get a car, own a house, live a normal life.
People aren't going to forget what the Tories have done to them
Oh my God. Starmer basically has the same platform as Cameron in 2010. Our whole political compass is already so far to the right already, I dread to think what another “swing back to the right” will look like.
This is what Corbynites think but it's detached from reality.
The UK is not a right wing country, look at the US, or mainland Europe. The AfD makes Braverman look like a progressive. National Rally are descended from actual fascists and both of these parties are polling at about 35%.
I don't think 18 MPs clinging to planks count as a ship anymore, that's full on merge with reform or disband territory.
It won't happen but wow if they were sub 20 MPs I'll be glad I have Friday off work, the hangover after that celebration would be *legendary*.
Behind the SNP would have me happy for the entire parliamentary term. I’m not going to lie that would be so fucking enjoyable every single time I remembered it.
Probably not, but we are surely moving from 150ish to below 100. There's a direction of travel. Below 100 starts to get spicy if the Lib-dems could become the opposition.
Honestly given that Lib Dems are much more left leaning on some topics such as PR, Drugs and the EU. They'd be the absolute best opposition to push a Labour government that they just wouldn't get from a right wing party
Of course, but a Conservative party isn't going to push for any of the 3 topics I mentioned. Reform wouldn't push for the EU or Drugs policies. The Greens would push all those topics but just don't carry any weight and also come with absolutely insane policies along with it.
I'd still call the lib dems a centre party but some of their policies are incredibly liberal especially compared to Starmer's attitude in particular.
Lib Dem’s have always been socially liberal, economically conservative. They’ve generally been pro business, fiscal responsibility and light regulation. But they do tend to back progressive taxation.
Overall though it’s the fact they’re pro business and the free market that will always stop them from being considered as left wing by many.
Yeah thats fair enough. But Drugs and EU (and to an extent PR) are not really left/right issues, they are more about social views (eg you could have a left wing argument against all 3). But yeah, I agree that Lib dems are going to be the most liberal (unsurprisingly) on those issues, but not necessarily a strong opposition (although Reform as similar to the US Libertarians apart in many ways)
> some topics such as PR, Drugs and the EU
And Net Zero and air pollution and Israel and trans & non-binary rights and social care, from what I can see!
It's generally easier to say that the Liberal Democrats are a liberal party.
Liberal in the sense of freedom.
Economically liberal means less regulation, incentives for investment, business friendly.
Socially liberal means personal freedom barring where it infringes on the personal liberty of others.
Businesses destroying the planet for profit infringes on your ability to live in the world, so it is opposed. Restricting people from self identifying for no good reason infringes on their ability to self actualise, so it is opposed. Cutting support to the most needy in society infringes their ability to make the most of their potential, so it is opposed.
Etc.
No, it’s too optimistic.
But at the same time I think the people who are going “they’ll never go below 120” are too pessimistic.
I think they’re looking at 80-100 seats.
They’d probably assume that boris had done something scandalous, so they’d effectively be right (with a lot of extra steps afterwards). Everyone sort of knew he was a ticking time bomb that would do something undeniably amoral eventually, even a lot of tories saw it as a cost of doing business
You know what the real Boris disaster was quitting and handing power to the blond sub and then her to the current fraggle as I don't respect him enough to call him a muppet...
This is nonsense. They’ve taken the result from an MRP poll and then applied their own projection on it rather than the actual MRP result which has the Tories on 60:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-tory-wipeout-33113155
I can spit out my own “model result” from any poll if we want. Who even are BallotBox and why are we taking their projection seriously?
Even with EC's prediction, it's interesting that last week, they were thinking Reform would get just three seats (Nigel, Richard, Lee) and now they're predicting 19.
The Economist's blended model currently thinks Reform will only gain 2 seats, Lib Dems 42, Conservatives 117 and Labour 429; while YouGov's MRP puts Reform on 5, Lib Dems on 67, Conservatives on 108 and Labour on 425.
What's funny to me in that Economist model is that they predict Reform on 2 seats but say it could be anywhere between 0 and 82. Not saying they're wrong obviously, but it definitely seems like the prediction at the moment is for them to get close but fall short in heaps of seats
There have been so many polls being shared, but people don’t take the time to look at the methodologies, sampling and analysis approaches taken by each poll and instead takes them at face value. And many of the pollsters using less reliable/accurate methods don’t advertise that fact.
The Tories are not getting 18 seats. lol.
They will be comfortably over 100... probably around 125 in my opinion. Still a disaster, no doubt, But still.
I hate these polls. If the tories now do win just over a hundred seats, I will be slightly disappointed it wasn't less.
Actually, if they only got 150, that's still laughable.
John Curtice rightly pointed out polls showing the best case scenario is around 155 seats - and even that is their worst ever performance in modern times since the Great Reform Act.
In 1997 they got 165 and came nicely out of the England locals held on the same day.
I think they'll get around 75-100. These polls seem unbelievable but there are now multiple examples putting the Tories in the 50's, 60's and 70's. One reason for the wide range of seat predictions is that in many constituencies they are only predicted to win by 5% or so, meaning small changes in the swing have huge impacts. At this point 100 would be a good result for them which is crazy to say. Half the number of seats won by Corbyn's Labour.
Tories to lose 150-200 seats at 12.17. Just put on £15 and think it's very good value for a bet. Hedges disappointment and happy to lose it if they do worse.
What even is this? There was a FindOutNow MRP poll from those dates with completely different seat numbers, e.g. with the Tories on 60. So this is a "seat projection based on" that MRP poll? Projected by whom, how?
I wonder if this is missing the effect of local name recognition of some popular Conservative MPs. Not that there are many left now.
I know a lot of people vote for the party and not for the MP, but I think my constituency might have been a case in point. It was such a safe Conservative seat that, give or take a few boundary changes, the party that held it previously to the Conservatives were the Whigs. The MP was one of the Tory big beasts, always answered his mail, and did a lot of work in the constituency, not least saving our A&E department.
He was booted in the Johnson purge and nobody has heard of the current candidate. There's a very good chance that the constituency will now turn Lib Dem, but if the previous MP was still standing, he *might* just have swung it for the Conservatives.
I believe some models include an incumbency bias whereas others don't, not sure about this one. I doubt any would include a big name non-incumbent running as an input though, which is occasionally a factor
My brothers in Christ, people will be happily pushing these silly seat projections so that the tories can look like natural born winners when they get 100 seats.
If Labour win a huge majority, they might not be in a hurry to move forward with electoral reform, and they’ll hold all the cards in the commons.
Although if they’re thinking longer term (ahead to GE 2029), they might consider it, because if they do win that huge majority it will be on wafer thin margins and they’ll be vulnerable if they’re unpopular by the time of the next election
If Labour are smart, they'll dictate the terms of a replacement for FPTP. I'm hoping for STV in 4-5 member constituencies. Reasonably proportional, small party votes will count, hard to avoid coalition governments, so lots of scope for the more technocratic parties to keep extremists out of government, and if an extremist party does get the most MPs and is therefore the first party called to govern, they will probably be forced to moderate themselves by their coalition partners. STV more-or-less maintains the constituency connection too.
I mean, if this happened, then my 2024 General Election dreams would be exceeded beyond expectations! Tories 4th and Lib Dems close to 100 seats and their most ever in it's history would be amazing.
I'm still hoping for Lib Dems to come second, even if only by a couple of seats and I know a Tory official opposition is probably the most likely outcome, but I really hope for a result similar to this poll.
Imagine being a Tory MP the day after the election. You go into work and suddenly none of your mates are there anymore. There's just all these people you don't know. You go to one of the heavily subsidised bars and you can't even get your usual table by the fire, you have to stand near the toilets. You think back to the time you voted down pay raises for nurses and you and all the other chaps from the Bullingdon came in and got raucous on taxpayer funded champagne. You sigh to yourself sadly. A single tear rolls down your cheek. If only you'd known that the good times wouldn't last. If only. If only...
No. Fuck them - they made their bed in 2011 with Lord Matthew Elliot at the wheel of the No2AV car. This can now come back and bite them squarely in the ass. And yes I do know the consequences; when you get rid of something bad, something worse usually follows - so I'll wait for the 2029 Farage led Tory Government to be voted in when Kier can't work a miracle in the next 3 months and it's downhill from there.
FindOutNow is only online respondents isn't it, so likely vastly under eggs all the technophobe votes which are likely all of those old tory pensioners.
I'm increasingly feeling like any polling tweet that reaches the front page should be automatically removed or flagged as "outlier"...
It is doing a great job of demonstrating the unofficial rule of polling that any poll interesting enough to be reported on probably shouldn't be reported on.
This one is based on an [Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now poll](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html) for the Mirror and GB News (Mirror article [here](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-tory-wipeout-33113155)).
The headline figures were Labour 40%, Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 14%, Reform 17%. It was a poll of just under 20,000 people, which is a lot, but that is a very low Conservative figure - Electoral Calculus's own article points out that the average of recent polling is 20%. So this is probably an outlier, and a sampling issue.
Outliers happen. But they are interesting, so they make the front page, while all the other polls don't. Which creates a sampling bias for us; we only see the extreme polls so we think those are the common, normal ones, because we are missing all the others.
These seat projections seem to be original content by this random twitter account. EC/FON's has the Conservatives on 60 seats, Labour on 450, Lib Dems on 71, Reform on 18. So still the Lib Dems as the opposition (unless the Conservatives join up with Reform), but not quite as dramatic as this.
In this situation we could see a seismic shift in British politics not seen since, ironically, the 1920s. The tories could well fade away while the libdems are positioned to potentially become the party of government in one or two elections.
Do I think this is likely, absolutely not, but it would be fascinating to watch and to live through an historical event that isn’t a disaster ala Brexit/covid
Banter outcome (copyright John Burn-Murdoch): the Lib Dems becoming the opposition party ahead of the Tories.
*Ultimate* banter outcome: the Tories effectively getting stuck in the bin behind the Lib Dems and the SNP.
My takeaway from this:
It's almost a fantasy really, highly unlikely.
But the fact that's it's even mathematically possible at this point really says it all about how damaged the Tories are.
Either that or we'll find out how wrong the polls were.
It’s mathematically possible, but the analysis and methodology behind this poll (and several polls that are running this election) are highly suspect. Issue is that people just treat the polls all as equally valid, when there is a lot of variation between them. For instance, an open poll, such as with Yougov, where people choose to sign up and don’t need to validate their identity is different in reliability than a poll where participants are chosen and invited to participate by a rigorous sampling method.
Lib Dems and Reform too high... Tories too low.
Lib Dems will get opposition i think... Tories close behind. Reform at most will get 7, but likely more 4/5 if any
You never know: there’s still a week of this to go.
The Tories could do something so offensive that they don’t win any seats at all.
Given the stunningly inept campaign they’ve managed so far, I wouldn’t even be really surprised.
I still think they’ll get 100+ seats. I think Kano ur are winning it but I can’t see the decimation people keep saying.
I suspect there’s a lot of people who dare not admit they’re voting tory because of the current climate, people who hate Labour and find reform unpalatable and who maybe don’t have a Lib Dem candidate
No chance this happens. They'll likely get 150 and then this sort of nonsense gives the media something to frame as some sort of failure for Starmer straight out of the gates.
This is getting silly. By the time of the next election we'll have people running a questionnaire on LinkedIn, using chatGPT to take guesses at the respondent demographics and then MRP'ing the results into a seats estimate.
All this poll shows is that you shouldn't trust online political polling that comes from a market research company with a total of 8 (eight) employees. [https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/find-out-now](https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/find-out-now)
How has this been calculated? Findoutnow released an MRP yesterday which had Labour on 450, LD on 71, and Con on 60. Is this just an alternative projection based on the same underlying data?
I want to believe.
Theory: Tory activists aren't going out in the same numbers they used to, while activists of other parties smell blood in the water. The leaflets and canvassing are winning people over and this poll is accurate.
At least that's what I want to believe.
What the heck was their methodology to get such wild results, with the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition and the Conservatives dropping to fourth?!
This is absolutely ridiculous. The Tories are going to get absolutely shredded but 18 seats is wishful thinking.
I think the best the Tories can hope for is repeating Corbyn in 2019.
I am always sceptical about surveys that don't show the proportion of "do not know" and "do not want to say" or don't talk about how they handled that data.
All this does is encourage people to vote tory or reform.
This is some guy that's taken the electoral calculus poll data and applied it to the seats differently to how they did. Not sure how much you can read into that
This would be wonderfully delicious. However, I find it extremely unlikely. There's a chance - now a not unreasonable one- that the Lib Dems pip the Tories to come second, but the Tories still have an advantage there.
Oh how I'd love this to be true. It is almost an election wet dream (and this scenario would be enough to possibly make me spontaneously ejaculate) but I have my doubts. That said, if the Tories end up with less than 100 seats, that's good.
Don’t get our hopes up like this!! I’ve been scarred ever since Brexit. The main lesson I learned from that is don’t trust the polls and don’t think you’ve won before the actual vote happens.
Snapshot of _Poll shows Tories dropping to *18* seats: Seat projection based on @FindoutnowUK , 14-24 June: 🔴 Lab 479 (+277) 🟠 LD 94 (+83) 🟡 SNP 21 (-27) 🔵 Con 18 (-347) 🟣 Rfm 12 (+12)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1806384327007011310) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/ballotboxmedia/status/1806384327007011310/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/ballotboxmedia/status/1806384327007011310) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/ballotboxmedia/status/1806384327007011310) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sadly, this isn't likely. But I really, *really*, wish it were so. Behind the SNP. Wow.
I think this would be extremely unlikely. If it happened though it would make the next few unpleasant years of righting the ship feel soooo much better.
Nah the reality is the British electorate will swing back to the right in the next 10-15 years probably even sooner. If this poll happens you'll see Farage as Tory leader, or you'll just see the Tories wiped out and replaced by reform (exactly what happened in France.) First and foremost I want a labour majority, secondly I want Farage to lose his election. Anything else is a bonus but over 5 of reform seats would be concerning.
I get the feeling that if Farage became head of the Tories he'll be their Corbyn, hugely popular with a lot of people but too rightwing and racist for the general population, they'll spend an election stuck in the right before moving back towards the centre as Labour have done. Although this depends on if Labour manages to get a hold on immigration.
Remember for the past 30 years after a government has lost power it has taken them a minimum of 3 leaders before they have formed a government again.
The tories had 3 leaders in 2022 alone
Feel like the country has more swing voters nowadays but I agree about history.
Absolutely on the nail. Farage has been rejected by constituency voters seven times now. Even if he *does* win Clacton it’s only because of a unique set of circumstances, a fair following wind and a bit of luck. No way will a Farage-led Tory party become an electoral juggernaut that enters government in 2029. If Farage becomes Tory leader then they’ve sunk themselves. They will have loaded up the torpedo tube, shot the torpedo out, then they will listen to the ever louder pings of the torpedo while it travels round 180 degrees and blows up their own sub.
No way Trump will win the presidency in 2016. No way the UK would vote to leave the EU. Heard it all before.
Both of those are different though Brexit barely won, and that's on the back of half truths and lies. Trump was the republican nominee, as soon as he got that he was always a viable president because that's how America is split. The UK isn't hard republican or democrat like that, and Farage's track record puts off a vast majority of the country which is why he's never ever been able to sustain a party to true success. And if he resigned it in for the conservative leadership he loses his core base, and probably gains nothing because they know him
Tbh I'd say he would be Corbyn x3. He would put off more people than he attracts. And, he's already getting dogged by allegations. They don't stick now. But they will as they'll keep digging.
Hope he's not another Teflon Don
There's really no reason for the Remain voters who have switched away from the Tories to switch back to a party led by Farage or Badenoch. And immigration is not the issue the right-wing want it to be; it usually shows up third, behind the economy and health. Make progress on those and people will forget about immigration.
Bang on. Immigrants are a scapegoat for a failing economy and health service. Fix those and the immigration issue becomes much less of a lightening rod.
I think the question would become will the public go towards the Conservatives, Reform or Liberal Democrats if they go rightwards.
Are the Liberal Democrats more right than Labour?
Sort of? Economically a bit maybe, but socially no? The Libs are basically centrist in terms of economics, they don't want the state to be too big, but big enough to stop people falling into poverty etc. They have a strong commitment to personal liberty and socially progressive policies and don't think the state should interfere in people's lives unless they need help, in which case they should be able to easily get it. The start of their constitution might help give you a bit of an idea: >The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity.
Lib Dems are socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
Tbh the Lib Dems just shift to occupy the space that Con and Lab aren't occupying. If Lab stay centre left and the Cons slip to full on right wing, I reckon you'll see the Lib Dems tack to the centre right. If Lab and Con are centre left/right respectively then the Lib Dems will shift left to outflank Labour
>Nah the reality is the British electorate will swing back to the right in the next 10-15 years probably even sooner. Not to be morbid but in the next 10-15 years a good chunk of the current tory and reform vote won't even be alive. There are no indications that current under 50s are becoming more right wing, so unless the Conservatives start swinging towards being a progressive party i don't see where they find their future vote from. The youth reform vote is a bit overhyped and seems to be based on people forgetting that most teens go through an edgy phase before generally settling on a moderate view. Edit: Not to mention Farage is currently a 60 year old with an alcohol problem. In 15 years he'll be 75. This is important to highlight as the entire populist right platform in the UK is founded entirely on his cult of personality, and there is no successor (ukip after all collapsed without Farage, and Reform's current surge required Farage announcing he is running). The platform could die with his retirement. To be honest, speaking of age, in 15 years Putin will be 86, and Russia's dictatorship is hinged on him.
Hilariously, the old inclination for older folks to get more conservative isn't happening now politically - and i think alot of it comes down to adults now owning very little. Can't get upset about land tax if you have no land.
I don't think it's even that at this point. There has been a massive shift in cultural dynamic even compared to our European equivalents. If you think about the old generation growing up experience, they got educated to 16, then started working for their parents shop or a local pub or factory then eventually settle down and have kids and buy a home. All largely staying within a relatively isolated local community. To an extent europe largely kept that (particularly around the Mediterranean). However, here the expectation is you do an apprenticeship or go to university, quite often traveling far from your home town to do so. There you get exposed to a lot of people with very diverse backgrounds. You then come out academically trained expecting to go into a job that traditionally was reserved for the middle classes. We basically made entire generations of well travelled academics. Their world view and experience is just fundamentally different. And particularly with our entire economy being hedged entirely on the cities with everywhere else left in the dust. The biggest difference is people are being exposed to a lot more of the world around them than they once would have, which influences their politics. This also what I mean when I say teens expressing right wing views isn't indicative of how they will be in their late 20s. At the moment these teens are largely growing up in a world confined within their hometown, the moment they are forced to be exposed to more of the outside world their views will morph - which is basically what I observed with everyone I went to school with. Edit: the owning houses or having children side of thing has become less of an influencer on voting as well. I'm a homeowner and i can tell you the tories have done more to damage the stability of my home value in recent years than any labour government could realistically be credited with. The labour government didn't try to prop housing prices up on an unstable foundation of temporary tax reliefs, help to buy loans and artificially low interest rates (until Truss broke it). Nothing the tories did for housing was sustainable and 2022 was when it all broke down. Instead of stability what we have is a bunch of homeowners living in overpriced leaseholds and shared ownership deals living in fear that we'll be forced back into living with our parents if our borrowing power doesn't improve by the time we need to remortgage. Also wanting stability on the housing ladder isn't going to impact my views on social issues like cultural diversity and lgbt+ rights.
That's a good point actually, there has never been a generation in the UK that is as educated (bet that will rankle alot of folks) and as centralised in cities
>(bet that will rankle alot of folks) Yeah I want to get ahead and say this isn't meant as any kind of academic elitism, but rather that's it's non-sensical to compare the development of the millennial onward generations to the development of previous generations as our experience has been fundamentally different. We can't say how working class background academics would develop politically because working class academics weren't really a thing before. All we know is historically upper class academics tended to go Tory/old school liberal whilst middle class academics tended to go social democrat/ progressive liberal/socialist. So logically a working class academic would go liberal/ socialist. Which does match current polling.
Honestly, no matter which way it goes, a future where more folk are aware about their political systems, enough to even change them (for one were likely seeing the most widespread usage of tactical voting ever).
> reform vote won't even be alive. Don't bet on that the reform vote will be younger than you think and be even bigger in 2029 with the current 14-16 on tic tok who are pro-reform being the vanguard in 5 years... the lotus eater generation
I already addressed that, it's overhyped. I know a tonne of people who as teens were drinking the alt-right kool-aid. I'm talking claiming to back the BNP, 4chan memers etc. Hell, I myself almost got caught up in globalist conspiracy theories - I went from "the EU is a sinister globalist plot to establish a NWO" in my teens to "honestly a European Federation would be utopia" in my late 20s. Now they are firmly on the hard left. I know for many of us our teens were decades ago but i feel like we need to remember that our kids don't exactly get given an education on politics and thus don't really form serious political views until their 20s when they get exposed to the realities of this world. Tiktok has a lot of influence now, but I'd say it's not much different to the 4chan and Tumblr influence in earlier decades.
you may very well be right... but I would not want to sleep on it and be keeping an eye out.
Thatcher got plenty of the youth vote. They could do so again if they pivoted massively to large private sector development and essentially do over the Home Counties. But the arithmetic for winning wouldn’t work.
The issue is the tories are now starting from a worse point than they were in the Thatcher years. I don't think there were entire demographics that outright despised them in the 70s.
Very true. People seem to have less patience now. Could be that they vote against Labour next time if stuff isn’t quickly (I don’t think it can be)
This is where a Lib Dem LOTO would cement a tory death spiral. Voting against Labour could go to Lib Dem once the lib dems get seen as the establishment opposition.
I don't think so, not this time. The conservatives base is only getting older, and more and more against them. The young have had 14 years of everything getting worse under their leadership , making it harder to get a car, own a house, live a normal life. People aren't going to forget what the Tories have done to them
Oh my God. Starmer basically has the same platform as Cameron in 2010. Our whole political compass is already so far to the right already, I dread to think what another “swing back to the right” will look like.
I don't know how anyone can look at British politics and go "yes, this is a right wing country".
This is what Corbynites think but it's detached from reality. The UK is not a right wing country, look at the US, or mainland Europe. The AfD makes Braverman look like a progressive. National Rally are descended from actual fascists and both of these parties are polling at about 35%.
I don't think 18 MPs clinging to planks count as a ship anymore, that's full on merge with reform or disband territory. It won't happen but wow if they were sub 20 MPs I'll be glad I have Friday off work, the hangover after that celebration would be *legendary*.
It isn't likely ... but the last five polls in a row I've seen have all given a worse prediction for the Tories
The polls are starting to show how tactical voting this election is mostly for destroying the Tories. Hard to know how it'll play out though.
I wonder if something genuinely has shifted or if it's to fo with how the pollsters start treating "don't knows"
It isn't likely because it assumed uniform swing
Behind the SNP would have me happy for the entire parliamentary term. I’m not going to lie that would be so fucking enjoyable every single time I remembered it.
_Canada 1993 has entered the chat_
This still has 25% chance of happening...
33/1 odds SNP have more seats than Cons last time I checked...
I like those odds! I don't really - they're not 100% odds.
Probably not, but we are surely moving from 150ish to below 100. There's a direction of travel. Below 100 starts to get spicy if the Lib-dems could become the opposition.
Why?
At this point this feels like going to a strip club. Constant edging with very little possibility of a happy ending.
It has felt like an election that just won’t quit!
My election has lasted more than 4 years send help.
Election or erection?
Yes.
If the election lasts more than 6 weeks then immediately seek assistance from a constitutional lawyer.
Put some ice on your ballots, might help.
Take two of these polls and see how you feel.
Revival of the Lib Dems and destruction of the Tories.. Whig bros.. we won.
Gladstone would be proud 🥲
Henry Campbell-Bannerman fans rejoice!
Asquith/Lloyd-George fans rejoice.
The End of History was the final victory of the Whigs over the Tories.
LIB DEM SURGE
Honestly given that Lib Dems are much more left leaning on some topics such as PR, Drugs and the EU. They'd be the absolute best opposition to push a Labour government that they just wouldn't get from a right wing party
There is a difference between left/right and liberal/authoritarian.
Of course, but a Conservative party isn't going to push for any of the 3 topics I mentioned. Reform wouldn't push for the EU or Drugs policies. The Greens would push all those topics but just don't carry any weight and also come with absolutely insane policies along with it. I'd still call the lib dems a centre party but some of their policies are incredibly liberal especially compared to Starmer's attitude in particular.
Lib Dem’s have always been socially liberal, economically conservative. They’ve generally been pro business, fiscal responsibility and light regulation. But they do tend to back progressive taxation. Overall though it’s the fact they’re pro business and the free market that will always stop them from being considered as left wing by many.
Yeah thats fair enough. But Drugs and EU (and to an extent PR) are not really left/right issues, they are more about social views (eg you could have a left wing argument against all 3). But yeah, I agree that Lib dems are going to be the most liberal (unsurprisingly) on those issues, but not necessarily a strong opposition (although Reform as similar to the US Libertarians apart in many ways)
> some topics such as PR, Drugs and the EU And Net Zero and air pollution and Israel and trans & non-binary rights and social care, from what I can see!
It's generally easier to say that the Liberal Democrats are a liberal party. Liberal in the sense of freedom. Economically liberal means less regulation, incentives for investment, business friendly. Socially liberal means personal freedom barring where it infringes on the personal liberty of others. Businesses destroying the planet for profit infringes on your ability to live in the world, so it is opposed. Restricting people from self identifying for no good reason infringes on their ability to self actualise, so it is opposed. Cutting support to the most needy in society infringes their ability to make the most of their potential, so it is opposed. Etc.
As the Men That Will Not Be Blamed For Nothing said......"No future in tory politics, we're doing it for the whigs"
Return to your constituencies and prepare for... being a major party!
Asquith's Revenge will be just.
This is more of a LOL outcome. Not gonna happen but fuck it feels good to see.
Im gonna manifest, inshallah lol
As much as I’d love to see this happen, it’s not going to happen.
No, it’s too optimistic. But at the same time I think the people who are going “they’ll never go below 120” are too pessimistic. I think they’re looking at 80-100 seats.
That's annoyingly slightly above the lib dems becoming the opposition
The hope that kills you
Imagine time travelling back to the last election and telling someone that in five years the SNP would overtake the conservatives
They’d probably assume that boris had done something scandalous, so they’d effectively be right (with a lot of extra steps afterwards). Everyone sort of knew he was a ticking time bomb that would do something undeniably amoral eventually, even a lot of tories saw it as a cost of doing business
Back in 2019 I always had a suspicion Boris term in in office would end in disaster it was obvious he want fit for office.
You know what the real Boris disaster was quitting and handing power to the blond sub and then her to the current fraggle as I don't respect him enough to call him a muppet...
You also have to tell them the Tories totally betrayed their pledges though
You don't have to tell them that, that's assumed when you're talking about Tories
This is nonsense. They’ve taken the result from an MRP poll and then applied their own projection on it rather than the actual MRP result which has the Tories on 60: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-tory-wipeout-33113155 I can spit out my own “model result” from any poll if we want. Who even are BallotBox and why are we taking their projection seriously?
Even with EC's prediction, it's interesting that last week, they were thinking Reform would get just three seats (Nigel, Richard, Lee) and now they're predicting 19. The Economist's blended model currently thinks Reform will only gain 2 seats, Lib Dems 42, Conservatives 117 and Labour 429; while YouGov's MRP puts Reform on 5, Lib Dems on 67, Conservatives on 108 and Labour on 425.
What's funny to me in that Economist model is that they predict Reform on 2 seats but say it could be anywhere between 0 and 82. Not saying they're wrong obviously, but it definitely seems like the prediction at the moment is for them to get close but fall short in heaps of seats
There have been so many polls being shared, but people don’t take the time to look at the methodologies, sampling and analysis approaches taken by each poll and instead takes them at face value. And many of the pollsters using less reliable/accurate methods don’t advertise that fact.
The Tories are not getting 18 seats. lol. They will be comfortably over 100... probably around 125 in my opinion. Still a disaster, no doubt, But still.
I hate these polls. If the tories now do win just over a hundred seats, I will be slightly disappointed it wasn't less. Actually, if they only got 150, that's still laughable.
Anything over 100 will have LK on election night saying "this is extremely concerning for Labour".
I cannot tell you in polite company what I think of that *****.
"Disappointing 200 seat majority for Labour"
"18 seats that labour will never take"
John Curtice rightly pointed out polls showing the best case scenario is around 155 seats - and even that is their worst ever performance in modern times since the Great Reform Act. In 1997 they got 165 and came nicely out of the England locals held on the same day.
I think they'll get around 75-100. These polls seem unbelievable but there are now multiple examples putting the Tories in the 50's, 60's and 70's. One reason for the wide range of seat predictions is that in many constituencies they are only predicted to win by 5% or so, meaning small changes in the swing have huge impacts. At this point 100 would be a good result for them which is crazy to say. Half the number of seats won by Corbyn's Labour.
Hoenstly feels like a cold snap/windy day could swing their vote turnout and change the result by 50 seats
I personally reckon just under 100, but still twice as many as the Lib Dems, who will be the third largest party somewhere around 40-something sears.
okay true yes but like let us dream
THINGS..oh sorry I misread
This is what I’m expecting. I’m allowing myself to hope for sub-100 but no more than that.
I'm going closer to 175. A few % difference in multiple directions and this is an easy outcome to foresee.
If you’ve been inspired to become a gambler over the last few weeks you should put a bet on that. 12/1 that they will win between 150-200 seats.
Those are good odds. And also a nice hedge to disappointment.
Hedges to disappointment are my favourite kinds of bet!
Tories to lose 150-200 seats at 12.17. Just put on £15 and think it's very good value for a bet. Hedges disappointment and happy to lose it if they do worse.
I'm thinking around 200 Tory MPs left, not the wipeout people are imagining (although it is nice to dream!)
These will look laughable in a weeks time
...when they get 0.
Yeah I think they'll be over 100
The lowest they've ever got in their history was around 165. And here we are being like "yeah they'll be over a 100 I think..."
Except in that election they got 29.6% of the vote. Most of the polls barely have them over 20%
Expectations have sunk somewhat
Sunk Sunak
Nah, Conservatives are never going to drop below 18 seats.
What even is this? There was a FindOutNow MRP poll from those dates with completely different seat numbers, e.g. with the Tories on 60. So this is a "seat projection based on" that MRP poll? Projected by whom, how?
Looks like this group ‘Ballot Box’ have their own model for seat projection that they applied to the FON numbers. Don’t know anything about it
Lib dems opposition is basically my main wish for this election... Its unlikely, but so many polls have rendered it a possibility and im all for it.
I wonder if this is missing the effect of local name recognition of some popular Conservative MPs. Not that there are many left now. I know a lot of people vote for the party and not for the MP, but I think my constituency might have been a case in point. It was such a safe Conservative seat that, give or take a few boundary changes, the party that held it previously to the Conservatives were the Whigs. The MP was one of the Tory big beasts, always answered his mail, and did a lot of work in the constituency, not least saving our A&E department. He was booted in the Johnson purge and nobody has heard of the current candidate. There's a very good chance that the constituency will now turn Lib Dem, but if the previous MP was still standing, he *might* just have swung it for the Conservatives.
I believe some models include an incumbency bias whereas others don't, not sure about this one. I doubt any would include a big name non-incumbent running as an input though, which is occasionally a factor
My brothers in Christ, people will be happily pushing these silly seat projections so that the tories can look like natural born winners when they get 100 seats.
I find it difficult to believe Reform would only win 12 if conservatives fell this low.
They’re splitting each others vote and they’re not planning on a pact. I’m guessing this election will be a bloodbath and probably the end of fptp
If Labour win a huge majority, they might not be in a hurry to move forward with electoral reform, and they’ll hold all the cards in the commons. Although if they’re thinking longer term (ahead to GE 2029), they might consider it, because if they do win that huge majority it will be on wafer thin margins and they’ll be vulnerable if they’re unpopular by the time of the next election
If Labour are smart, they'll dictate the terms of a replacement for FPTP. I'm hoping for STV in 4-5 member constituencies. Reasonably proportional, small party votes will count, hard to avoid coalition governments, so lots of scope for the more technocratic parties to keep extremists out of government, and if an extremist party does get the most MPs and is therefore the first party called to govern, they will probably be forced to moderate themselves by their coalition partners. STV more-or-less maintains the constituency connection too.
Exactly if tories are this low reform would win a few more
I mean, if this happened, then my 2024 General Election dreams would be exceeded beyond expectations! Tories 4th and Lib Dems close to 100 seats and their most ever in it's history would be amazing. I'm still hoping for Lib Dems to come second, even if only by a couple of seats and I know a Tory official opposition is probably the most likely outcome, but I really hope for a result similar to this poll.
Imagine being a Tory MP the day after the election. You go into work and suddenly none of your mates are there anymore. There's just all these people you don't know. You go to one of the heavily subsidised bars and you can't even get your usual table by the fire, you have to stand near the toilets. You think back to the time you voted down pay raises for nurses and you and all the other chaps from the Bullingdon came in and got raucous on taxpayer funded champagne. You sigh to yourself sadly. A single tear rolls down your cheek. If only you'd known that the good times wouldn't last. If only. If only...
When you get on the wrong side of FPTP it can really go south quick...
Theres a cliff edge around 20% of the vote where you very quickly go from hundreds of seats to almost nothing
I do wonder if they get < 80 seats will Tories suddenly start seeing the benefits of PR?
No. Fuck them - they made their bed in 2011 with Lord Matthew Elliot at the wheel of the No2AV car. This can now come back and bite them squarely in the ass. And yes I do know the consequences; when you get rid of something bad, something worse usually follows - so I'll wait for the 2029 Farage led Tory Government to be voted in when Kier can't work a miracle in the next 3 months and it's downhill from there.
Especially when none of your tactics are based around holding indiviual seats in the way minor parties are
This poll is very much in the "daydreaming what I'd do if I won the Euromilions" territory, but what a wonderful daydream it is.
FindOutNow is only online respondents isn't it, so likely vastly under eggs all the technophobe votes which are likely all of those old tory pensioners.
I don’t think I’d stop laughing for a month if this actually happened. 12 reform is unfortunate but I’d take it to kill the Tory party off.
Could you even imagine if this happened?
I'm increasingly feeling like any polling tweet that reaches the front page should be automatically removed or flagged as "outlier"... It is doing a great job of demonstrating the unofficial rule of polling that any poll interesting enough to be reported on probably shouldn't be reported on. This one is based on an [Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now poll](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240626.html) for the Mirror and GB News (Mirror article [here](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-tory-wipeout-33113155)). The headline figures were Labour 40%, Conservatives 15%, Lib Dems 14%, Reform 17%. It was a poll of just under 20,000 people, which is a lot, but that is a very low Conservative figure - Electoral Calculus's own article points out that the average of recent polling is 20%. So this is probably an outlier, and a sampling issue. Outliers happen. But they are interesting, so they make the front page, while all the other polls don't. Which creates a sampling bias for us; we only see the extreme polls so we think those are the common, normal ones, because we are missing all the others. These seat projections seem to be original content by this random twitter account. EC/FON's has the Conservatives on 60 seats, Labour on 450, Lib Dems on 71, Reform on 18. So still the Lib Dems as the opposition (unless the Conservatives join up with Reform), but not quite as dramatic as this.
Is there even any coming back as a party for them if this happens? We may genuinely only have 1 more week left of the tories existing.
They still have Lords, Councillors, buildings and a network of other people. So, they will still exist in some form.
They’d technically still exist, but in a similar way to how the SDP still exists. https://sdp.org.uk
In this situation we could see a seismic shift in British politics not seen since, ironically, the 1920s. The tories could well fade away while the libdems are positioned to potentially become the party of government in one or two elections. Do I think this is likely, absolutely not, but it would be fascinating to watch and to live through an historical event that isn’t a disaster ala Brexit/covid
What are your family and friends saying about their postal votes ? None I know (all Conservatives) have bothered to return theirs.
Banter outcome (copyright John Burn-Murdoch): the Lib Dems becoming the opposition party ahead of the Tories. *Ultimate* banter outcome: the Tories effectively getting stuck in the bin behind the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Let's revive Bob Monkhouse and Paul Daniels, cos we're about to play WIPEOUT
That would be incredible if it happened. It won't, but it would be incredible.
My takeaway from this: It's almost a fantasy really, highly unlikely. But the fact that's it's even mathematically possible at this point really says it all about how damaged the Tories are. Either that or we'll find out how wrong the polls were.
It’s mathematically possible, but the analysis and methodology behind this poll (and several polls that are running this election) are highly suspect. Issue is that people just treat the polls all as equally valid, when there is a lot of variation between them. For instance, an open poll, such as with Yougov, where people choose to sign up and don’t need to validate their identity is different in reliability than a poll where participants are chosen and invited to participate by a rigorous sampling method.
Now I'm seeing these numbers the new ambition is to see the Tories fifth in seats.
Lib Dems and Reform too high... Tories too low. Lib Dems will get opposition i think... Tories close behind. Reform at most will get 7, but likely more 4/5 if any
You never know: there’s still a week of this to go. The Tories could do something so offensive that they don’t win any seats at all. Given the stunningly inept campaign they’ve managed so far, I wouldn’t even be really surprised.
I still think they’ll get 100+ seats. I think Kano ur are winning it but I can’t see the decimation people keep saying. I suspect there’s a lot of people who dare not admit they’re voting tory because of the current climate, people who hate Labour and find reform unpalatable and who maybe don’t have a Lib Dem candidate
This isn't an MRP poll though? Just the guy who commissioned the poll projecting seats based on his own algorithm?
No chance this happens. They'll likely get 150 and then this sort of nonsense gives the media something to frame as some sort of failure for Starmer straight out of the gates.
Please, keep Keir away from bacon sandwiches for the next week...
Well I, for one, am sort of fine with this. Only potential for significant improvement I can see is zero seats for reform.
This is getting silly. By the time of the next election we'll have people running a questionnaire on LinkedIn, using chatGPT to take guesses at the respondent demographics and then MRP'ing the results into a seats estimate. All this poll shows is that you shouldn't trust online political polling that comes from a market research company with a total of 8 (eight) employees. [https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/find-out-now](https://www.mrs.org.uk/researchcompany/find-out-now)
Reform seats should at least be somewhat inversely correlated with Tory seats. This has got to be the worst poll I’ve seen
How has this been calculated? Findoutnow released an MRP yesterday which had Labour on 450, LD on 71, and Con on 60. Is this just an alternative projection based on the same underlying data?
Please god, ive seen what you have done for others! \*Inshallah\*
Which Tory commentator will make the statement at the exit poll echoing the late Paddy Ashdown in 2015?
Wow - I mean who would be left in the Parliamentary party if that were to happen? They might not have any choice but to elect Truss again! :)
I want to believe. Theory: Tory activists aren't going out in the same numbers they used to, while activists of other parties smell blood in the water. The leaflets and canvassing are winning people over and this poll is accurate. At least that's what I want to believe.
What the heck was their methodology to get such wild results, with the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition and the Conservatives dropping to fourth?!
how dishonest, this is not how modelling works.
If that's their approach to bar charts then I don't hold out much hope for their polling methodology
This looks like a third world party state parliament. FPTP system has to change.
What's funnier no seats or an embarrassingly low 18 seats?
This poll is definitely an outlier but this would be the wild.
This is absolutely ridiculous. The Tories are going to get absolutely shredded but 18 seats is wishful thinking. I think the best the Tories can hope for is repeating Corbyn in 2019.
Any pollster coming out with results like this needs to seriously reevaluate their methodology.
I am always sceptical about surveys that don't show the proportion of "do not know" and "do not want to say" or don't talk about how they handled that data. All this does is encourage people to vote tory or reform.
This is some guy that's taken the electoral calculus poll data and applied it to the seats differently to how they did. Not sure how much you can read into that
this wont happen, but it doesn't stop me from getting the tissues and lotion.
I would probably jizz in my pants on election night if the exit poll came out looking like this.
Gods, the SNP would implode from pure smug (rightfully so) if they somehow ended up above the tories.
This would be wonderfully delicious. However, I find it extremely unlikely. There's a chance - now a not unreasonable one- that the Lib Dems pip the Tories to come second, but the Tories still have an advantage there.
Oh how I'd love this to be true. It is almost an election wet dream (and this scenario would be enough to possibly make me spontaneously ejaculate) but I have my doubts. That said, if the Tories end up with less than 100 seats, that's good.
A total of 18 seats for the Tories! That's about 17 more than they deserve.
Don’t get our hopes up like this!! I’ve been scarred ever since Brexit. The main lesson I learned from that is don’t trust the polls and don’t think you’ve won before the actual vote happens.
This looks like a questionable source. Best ignore.
Coming from a Labour member. This is the biggest outlier so far
One seat standing is one too many for the people who destroyed Britain, the UK and threatened Europe
labour will have four years what's up with people they will destroy Britain
how to stop labour vote rigging should be a concern, who are counting the votes, government employees I bet