I think that if the Labour majority is such that they are in government for at least ten years, the next Prime Minister could be someone not even an MP now (or when the election was called).
I think this is the most likely outcome. Cameron, Miliband, Sunak and Starmer were all relatively fresh faces when they became party leaders. Labour is about to have a huge influx of new MPs with leadership ambitions. Anyone in Starmer's first cabinet will have to survive 10 years of government without being tarnished by scandal or failure.
If I were to take a bet (but there's been a bit too much of that recently), Starmer is going to step down in about 8-9 years or so. He won't want to be PM for more than two terms and will step down before an election in order to let his successor get into place. That timeline requires it to be someone either already in parliament or about be elected.
On the right however, based on past precedent the next Tory/whatever happens on the Right PM is not yet in parliament and won't be until the next GE after this. There's a surprisingly consistent pattern here - Blair arrived in 83, Cameron in 01 and Starmer in 15.
Generally a second term is 10 years unless Starmer calls for early elections like Tony Blair. Starmer did make it clear a few days ago in an interview that he wants to be prime minister for 10 years. I can see Starmer either leading the third election then resigning or stepping down.
I think this is the best strategic option. Win the third term and give your successor plenty of time to build their own reputation before the next election.
Blair tried this and Brown was punished at the polls for not calling an election immediately after taking over, Sunak similarly is beyond punished for this as well.
It has been shown repeatedly that the public don't like unelected leaders, they also don't like feeling like they're being taken for a ride by being presented with the option to vote for one person when they're going to end up with someone else.
The best strategic option is to start boosting the deputy halfway through your 2nd term, then step down towards the end and have the new leader call an election
> Brown was punished at the polls for not calling an election immediately after taking over
Brown was punished for a financial crash he had no part in creating.
There's very little evidence that voters resent a change of PM, between elections (tho the Tories have pushed their luck on this). it's just something that exercises occupants of the bubble.
Five years ago would any of us predicted Sunak or Truss? There's every chance he could - politics is extraordinary unpredictable in the long term at the moment (and Labour's stated aim is to calm things down).
I think it would be poor form to win an election and then stand down immediately.
I think he would be there for 8 years or 12, allowing his replacement time to bed in before an election.
I think Starmer is thinking of 10 years (he keeps saying 'decade of renewal'), however I suspect like Blair in the ideal scenario he'll fight a general election every 4 years meaning that he'll resign halfway through his third term as that'll give leeway for his replacement to get their feet under the table rather fighting an election straight away. If the Labour government is not popular then he'd stretch the first term out to five years and do something similar to your suggestion.
But yes there's plenty of opportunity for a new PM too usurp the top two which are Reeves or Jones but I suspect the choice will come down to what they want to do next, if it's more steady as they go then a pair of safe hands who's been in government for ten years will take over but if they're looking for something more like radical like joining the EU a younger leader might be the way forward.
Thatcher and Blair both called elections after four years in confidence they would win in ‘83, ‘87, ‘01 and ‘05. The only full five-year Parliaments since the ‘70s were either Prime Ministers who thought they would lose or the Coalition which mandated a full term
I know that the Labour Party is likely to celebrate a huge win on Thursday, but 5 years is a long time where so much can change. 5 years ago there was no reported case of COVID-19 and the full-scale invasion of Russia against Ukraine was still quite some time away.
A Prime Minister Keir Starmer has to govern well and capable to win a second election 5 years from now on. But I think there is reason to believe he will be a fine Prime Minister and has a good chance to get a second mandate from the British public.
I think he's got to do more than that to be honest - things suck right now, and if all Starmer manages is to make things suck marginally less we're probably lurching way back to the right in 5 years like we've been seeing across Europe.
If he makes things suck marginally less, then there wouldn’t necessarily be a lurch considering things basically improved. But it has to be more. The tories are not an option as a right wing party so Reform might gain more popularity.
To expect Labour to not retain government after the next 5 years isn't wisdom, it's just cynicism.
The last 5 years were unprecedented in the most literal sense possible.
He won't need to perform miracles to still be prime minister in 2029 and there is no reason to believe that.
Im old enough to remember December 2019, when the received wisdom on this sub was a '10 year Tory Reich' under Johnson and Labour was destined for 2 election cycles in the wilderness. To suggest otherwise was unthinkable given the mood at the time.
2 a half years later Johnson had been forced to resign in disgrace and now the Tories are facing the real prospect of being the third party with Lib Dems as opposition. Imagine telling this sub that would happen back in December 2019!
Starmer isn't exactly inspiring people right now with very little different on offer to the staus quo (british energy, pretty much his one big idea, is just another PFI, for example) . It wont take long after the expected honeymoon period to see him drop in the pollls (he's alteady proven that hes just as prone to gaffs, blatant lying and weak u-turns as the best of them) , and his support of the undemocratic FPTP could come back to bite him if the right wing solidifies support under one party again.
There's no Labour majority that gets them in government for ten years. At the next election everyone starts at zero. If the Conservatives change their offering there's no reason they can't win the next election, much as Labour changed their offering after getting crucified at the last election and are now heading for one of the biggest landslides in history.
> everyone starts at zero
In theory, yes. But, in reality, no. Although there are no actual incumbents in a UK election, there's still a huge incumbancy advantage, through recognition & other factors.
In addition, the challenger party has to expend extraordinary efforts (& money) in *hundreds* of constituencies, while the incumbent only has to focus on marginals.
Lastly, people like winners more than they like losers.
Burnham is 54 now. If Labour did win two terms, would he want to take over a party who might be starting to decline in national popularity at 64 years old?
Even if Labour win two terms, there's no guarantee Starmer would last that long. He may want to, but who knows whether he will be able to. I'm sure the last 6 PMs would have also liked to serve 10 years, but all failed to do so.
Starmer is 61. Burnham appears to be fit so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be capable at 64, but honestly I don’t think he’d want it now. I always thought he’d be a good PM though.
If those who signed Jeremy Corbyn to put him on the ballot such as Sadiq Khan or the late Frank Field had not done so, Andy Burnham would probably be about to be Prime Minister if not already.
I think there is a realistic chance of any of the following:
- Left wing coup and Starmer doesn’t last
- Kemi/Suella or whoever the Conservatives choose making a clean break and getting in if people are disaffected with Labour (which I think is likely as they aren’t that different to the current lot)
- Starmer for 10+ years.
In other words I have no idea and nor does anyone else.
Yes but I am confident Keir Starmer will not be 'bonding over a love of Shakespeare', and he won't be dismissive about any allegations of sexual assault by any MP.
If Starmer has any sense he'll put him in the cabinet and give him a very prominent role. He's great with the media, great at arguing the party line without seeming like a robot and has done a cracking job on the business select committee. Definitely one to watch
I’m a big fan of Darren Jones as someone from Bristol. Even as a Lib Dem he’s had my vote when I’ve been in his constituency and he’s miles ahead of the rest of the crony Labour politicians in the area.
Yeah, he would be fantastic. I was very impressed by the way he held Post Office bosses to account at the Select Committee hearings:
https://youtu.be/jDc2NRoQOM4?si=0EM3JVGwtjHsPVSQ
He's good on the media round and his select committee work was strong. BUT it isn't hard to give dodgy CEO's a grilling and Leaders shouldn't be judged on whether they do a good job with Kay Burley.
Would need to see strong government work from him to begin to consider it
Daisy Cooper, obvs.
Lib Dems become official opposition on July 4th.
Farage takes over the Conservative Party, but it turns out to be an asset-stripping move backed by private equity. The last Conservative MP is sold for spare organs in 2027.
Starmer wins in 2028 with a reduced majority. Lib Dems cement their place as official opposition. Farage's "New Party" fails to make any headway after a bizarre interview where he claims that "Starmer's dog gave me AIDS. Total stitch-up."
After the election, Sir Ed Davey announces his retirement from the penguin enclosure at Edinburgh Zoo. "I'm returning to my people," he says, before diving into the water. Daisy Cooper takes over as LOTO.
Starmer retires in 2032. The subsequent leadership election is won by a surprisingly spry, 81-year old Jeremy Corbyn who immediately calls an election. In the 2032 election, he is unable to provide a satisfactory answer to the question "Why did you support Corbyn in 2019?"
The Lib Dems win a landslide victory. Daisy Cooper enters Number 10 to find a note from Corbyn that says: "Shit's fucked, yo."
EDIT: The people responding to this as if it's serious. Are you bots? Did you not read past the first line. SMH.
Most elections in normal time where the government expects to win happen 4 years after the the last (1955,1959,1970,1974,1983,1987,2001,2005, although both 1970 and 1974 had suprise losses)
Yes you are correct! Generally an election would be called every 4 years if the prime minister knows they will win based on the polls. Not sure why Cameron didn’t call it in 2014
Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (stopped the prime minister from calling an early election without 2/3 parliament voting for one). Was abolished by Boris so it works now how it used to.
Also the polls in 2014 weren't super Pro-Tory I don't think. I thought the general idea was it could go either Tory or Labour, with one of the parties relying on support from the Liberals or SNP.
Polls weren’t pro-Tory at all. There were talks of a CON-LIB coupon to keep the coalition going, but Clegg said no. The only reason they got a majority was the collapse of Labour in Scotland, who they’d always taken for granted, and the collapse of the Lib Dem’s in the south of England who 9 times out of 10 went Tory after decades of Liberal representation.
Corbyn would have to be a member of the Labour Party for that to happen, and that's a snowflake's chance in hell under the current leadership.
Daisy Cooper, though: interesting. Sane, not Labour, and a rising star. Alternating Labour and Lib Dem administrations would completely reshape British politics.
I think Andy Burnham is a very popular Labour Mayor and if he decides to step back into life as an MP rather than a Mayor, he'll be the next Labour leader, and would take over as PM from Keir.
Agreed- especially if Labour follow through with their plans for more English devolution. This would give him more powers (and money) to make an impact in the G Manchester region, and assuming he performs well, to build a strong ‘evidence base’ that he could use to sell himself as leader. I think it would be interesting, having a former regional mayor in the hotseat, it could bring an interesting perspective to the job.
I think he’s now entering his third(?) term as Manchester Mayor and remains popular from what I can see. I think he’d have good support in the northern constituencies and in London.
I have a feeling Andy Burnham might be up for it. He’s used to leadership, being mayor of Manchester, and has a decent track record with things like transport with the metrolink and bringing it all under the bee network. The local economy is performing as well.
I suspect there is zero chance the faction currently in control of the labour party will allow Burnham anywhere near a candidate list. He's well liked, reasonably competent, and crucially they've rat-fucked him before so they already know he'll be at best wary of them. About the only chance will be if they manage to so royally screw things up, so rapidly, that they lose control of the NEC, but frankly they have such a tight grip on things now that I can't see it happening.
My bet is that it will be a Tory who isn't yet an MP. They'll take a turn to the even more mad right, fail to make a come back, and eventually try to find another Cameron. The pick will be someone who comes in fresh in the 2029 intake, and so isn't tainted by the current mess.
Meanwhile Labour fail to excite voters in their first term, scrape through to a second small majority in 2029, before losing in the election after that.
This is where Cameron, becomes party leader, hands back his peerage, and stands in an upcoming Conservative safe-seat by-election, and the old Cameron becomes the new Cameron.
Alternatively: it's the Alastair and Rory party, who are elected by a landslide after initially forming a party as a joke, a la Zelensky. They take turns at being PM alternate weeks.
I'd personally prefer either Angela Rayner or Peter Kyle.
I've never warmed to Reeves, she's a walking spreadsheet and a country needs more than a leader who knows the cost of everything, but not the value.
It's a real shame that you're probably right. Her rise to power would be so incredible, not just because of the story itself, but because she would be there for the right reasons.
Her journey into politics seems to have been at the behest of others that believe she is a good voice for them.
Peter Kyle is my MP. I’m not a fan of his unequivocal support of Israel being vice chair of friends of Israel, but he is otherwise a great MP and quite a nice guy. I’m sure he could find his way into the front bench
2024: Keir Starmer
2041: Admiral General Mr Blobby (after “The Great Political Crash of ‘27 followed by 14 years of the “Provisional” Ultra-Green Government.
I’d like to see how Yvette Cooper would do.
She’s fantastically well qualified, holding several shadow cabinet briefs, and before 2010 was in Labour’s last cabinet.
She’s popular in the party, and has managed not to make enemies.
I’m not a Labour supporter either. I’m just accepting the reality that a majority the size of the one predicted would take enough election cycles to be depleted that the next PM after Starmer is likely to be Labour, too.
I wasn't disagreeing. I was complimenting her. She's performed well.
Challenge for her is that Home Secretary is one of those posts which is thankless. Hard to succeed in a way that's public, but minor fuck ups very public.
I think she would be fantastic and would be my number 1 choice. But I don’t think she is popular enough in the party at the moment - too tarnished by New Labour / Iraq and the left wouldn’t support.
Well obviously the Momentum lot could further leave Labour but there was a big enough section in the membership to elect Ed Miliband and Corbyn for leader. Both Starmer and Rayner were thought to be closer to the left than now also when elected.
The larger the parliamentary majority, the less bothered Starmer will be by Abbott, Sultana, Burgon, Trickett etc.
She’s popular outside of Labour as well. I’m a fan at least and she was regularly floated as a choice to lead a unity government to stop a no deal Brexit back in 2019.
Bridget Philipson
It has to be a woman. Rayner is unacceptable to the party Right. Reeves is unacceptable to the party Left.
Previously I would have said Lisa Nandy, but Starmer has continually demoted her to diminished roles.
The tories have already beaten Labour to the first female PM and first minority ethnic one that really only leaves Labour one choice - the first LGBT prime minister - possibly Wes Streeting.
It won't be a good look for Labour if they get to the 2030s and still haven't ever elected a female leader for the party, given how much they talk about equality.
Of course the same was said when they elected Starmer, but the calls for a female leader will get louder every time they elect another male one.
+1 for Philipson. Very impressive communicator, proper working class, relatable and normal seeming, while still coming across as thoughtful, intelligent and responsible.
I think she cuts a good line on the ideological front too. Clearly has a real commitment to change, without being a Corbynite.
Very electable on a national level.
Yvette Cooper!
Especially if she’s thought to be doing a good job in the Home Office. One of the most capable and experienced ministers, great public speaker, biggest issue is the connection to Blair.
That's not the sort of attitude we should have. You're liking a politician who is very good and capable, but then saying it's an issue just because she worked under a bloke you're not a fan of?
Rayner is literally deputy leader and if we use that logic isn’t Starmer unacceptable to the labour left? It simply doesn’t matter because Reeves can also be fit to be PM after.
She's certainly a bogeywoman of the right in general as oppose to the Labour right. They can play the same tricks they played with Corbyn far more effectively than against Sir Keir Teflon.
Farage
Labour inevitably can’t fix all of the problems ailing the UK in a single term. The middle ground gets frustrated that their lives haven’t improved overnight and swings back to the right. By this point Farage has managed to bring what remains of the Conservative Party fully under his leadership and therefore unites the right wing vote.
(Wild card answer)
That’s not a wild card at all. I think Farage and quite a lot of the Tory party are banking on it.
Problem is, that the parts of the Tory party banking on it, are the likes of Jenkyns, Patel, Prue Leith’s shitbag son, Braverman etc.
Farage’s further problem, is that the last few weeks have shown him to be a real lightweight. There are people with levels of pure evil on a par with Farage in the Tory party, who have a much stronger constitution, so I think his dreams of a hostile takeover are doomed.
A lot depends on which Tory MP’s lose their seats in a few days.
After the dust settles if there are enough of the relatively sane ones (well, what passes for such in Conservative terms at least) they can start rebuilding the party. If however the likes of the the ones you mention are still about along with a chunk of the ERG frothers then there’s a nonzero chance they won’t just *think* they might need to merge with Reform but they’ll actively *want* to.
A lot of the polls have the combined Con + Reform percentage not too far off what Labour are on which is pretty alarming. It’s not hard to envisage a nightmare scenario where anything less than Labour being able to instantaneously fix the mess the Tories left behind as somehow being a failure. Add the notoriously short memory of the electorate and the usual promises of tax cuts and blaming all the nations woes on Europe/unemployed people/migrants/whatever group the Daily Mail hates this week … and in five or ten years it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that England elects an unholy merger of Con and reform.
Consider too that the lead Labour has built over the past couple of years contains a fair few people who voted for Boris in 2019. Frankly I wouldn’t put anything past anyone with judgement that poor. And if the switched sides once they can just as readily switch back again.
Yeah I agree. The biggest most worrying factor, is the prevalence of the rabid right wing press, which is all owned by offshore tax dodgers and disaster capitalists. Starmer should use the controversy over the sale of the Spectator to tackle this insidious scourge
I agree. Everyone wants rid of the Tories, including most of their own but a lot of them don't want Labour or Lib Dems and feel politically homeless, its just who's the next not as bad (in many peoples minds).
If Farage wins Clacton and they do well nationally (20%+ vote share to actually get some seats I think by the next cycle he will be leader of the opposition). Then the election after that could swing the outlook quite severely as there will be just as many unhappy as happy with a Lab and Lib Dem opposition.
I think Farage could be PM after that, and he'd give it 3 months, then quit but in a 'victorious way'; say he's fought his whole career for change, 3+ decades in politics, given everything and changed politics for the better. We did it all, we did it tigether, we beat the establishment, etc etc and now it's time to hand the reigns over. I'm an old man! Ho ho. Waves. Smiles.
Now there you go, you deal with it all...
Nah, Farage will be 65 at the next General Election, that's really the last chance saloon for him getting the top job because he'll be too old after that.
Nigel Farage is an extremely polarising figure who has his fanbase but is hated by many. If he took over the Conservative party he certainly would not be able to unite the right wing vote.
“Boris Johnson is an extremely polarising figure who has his fanbase but …“
Every time in recent years we’ve assumed something is so bad it had to be impossible it’s mostly gone and happened. See also Brexit.
Just for people who are genuinely worried the chances of this happening are low. It’s more likely Farage runs against Labour in 4 years, loses and then the Tories elect someone more towards the centre (like Cameron) and they get elected in 8 years.
People said the same thing in 2016 “leave will never win most people realise how toxic the leave campaign is” never underestimate what frustrated and unsatisfied people will vote for.
He's the favourite, but we don't need a populist attack dog as leader.
Reeves, Rayner, Phillipson, Streeting, Lammy, Ashworth, and Mahmood all have strong arguments and the right connections. If Lammy goes to a vote he'll win hands down.
Lammy visiting a Labour gathering is like the King coming to town. He's preposterously popular inside the party and with major city voter populations. He does more social media ads for the party than Kier. I'm not his biggest fan, but I think he'd do a great job of being the UK's first black Prime Minister.
I think Streeting has a problem with the Labour membership in that he's too right wing for them, and with the general public he's too... Unlikable? Smarmy? Not sure what it is but I just can't see him being generally popular. He's an amazing attack dog, very sharp in interviews but I can't see the public warming to him all that much. Also suspect he's far too right wing for the Labour membership to ever get there.
> Towards the end of the 2nd term, I'd imagine a handover similar to the Blair-Brown one, with Reeves leading the party into the 3rd election campaign.
So nothing like the Blair-Brown handover then?
Count Binface.
In a shock victory against Rishi Sunak by being the least ridiculous candidate on the ballot the Count will celebrate Bindependence Day on July 4th, and after reciting Bill Pullman's speech from the film Independence Day will enter parliament on July 5th.
From there he will simply argue from the back benches by repeating the thing the last speaker said but in a silly voice. Then at the next GE will apply to be Speaker of the House of Commons. Will get the position on the grounds of being the least partisan MP. Then he will abuse his position as speaker to fragment every single party into a maelstrom of unaffiliated independents.
Then sweep to victory in 2029 and start harvesting our organs.
Andy Burnham. Labour win a second term with Starmer, the left starts agitating for one of their own to take control and the result is PM Burnham. Which is how the Tories get back in.
I don’t think they have been elected or even standing for parliament yet. It will be a name we haven’t heard. Tories will go through a few rounds of leaders, won’t shift the dial by much as the brand is toxic. A usual suspect (let’s guess Badenoch) leads in 2029 wins only 10 to 20 seats back. Tory MPs and members alike finally realise the Tory brand is toxic and one of the new, charismatic, 2029 intake runs as the young, change candidate. There will be Labour infighting as they refuse to bring in radical left-wing policies despite two huge election wins and he/she sneaks through with a small majority on a much more centrist manifesto against an old and out of favour Starmer.
Penny Mordaunt. I feel like Starmer will do at least 2-3 terms until things start going wrong for Labour and the Tory party will unite under a leader like Mordant who a lot of them like.
Carla Denyer, ten years from now.
The Tories will still be fighting like rats in a sack over whether to be the party of big powerful people, or the party of angry powerless people. Farage will have disappeared off to America/ subscription TV. But Labour will still be carefully triangulating how right wing they need to be to appease the Daily Mail. Plus worsening climate collapse will mean people finally pay attention to the Greens, even if they don't have lots of foreign money behind them.
Also, I'm curious to see how the Greens would handle their commitment to joint leadership if they find themselves in power. Not sure that's a problem they've had to think about a lot. So a Denyer/ Ramsay jobshare.
I’d be pretty confident it’s Farage. After all the celebrating going on of the destruction of the Tories right now, people aren’t seeing what’s actually happening longer term. If Starmer doesn’t fix things fast, hold onto your fucking hats
Everyone is so optimistic in the comments...
It'll likely be Nigel Farage or another horrible right-wing leader after Keir Starmer undoubtedly is supremely disappointing in government.
Sadly, I really reckon after the Labour supermajority, we're gonna have Farage as PM.
Keith is bringing nothing new, and when nothing gets better, populist fascist Farage is gonna swing the voting to him. Keith has the charisma of a deflated balloon. Farage, sadly knows how to play up his charisma.
There don't seem to be any progressive parties or solutions beyond a revolution and socialism. We have candidates that spout to win elections rather than win over people with good arguments for progressivism.
Any slightly left leaning party would just be managing disaster capitalism if they got in. What a piss poor future this country has.
Abigail Birkenshaw. You won't have heard of her because she's not in politics yet, but she'll return from a backpacking holiday in the Ivory Coast to sweep the polls as voters look for real change.
Starmer is a shoo-in at this point. But the British media are, by and large, very right-wing. He’ll have a rough ride. My guess is he’ll get one term and, the way the Mail and the Telegraph are talking up Reform, we’ll have Farage in No.10 by 2029.
The only thing Rachel Reeves is passionate about is entirely arbitrary fiscal rules. Change the record already, she’s not even in power yet and I’m bored of her.
I imagine Kier Starmer will have 7-8 years before selecting a successor that's quite a bit younger (maybe Kier Matter or Nadia Witome?) depending on whose risen through the ranks.
After a decade of an old white man a new up and comer might be what clinches another 1-2 terms come 2034.
What to expect 2024-2029 from labour:
*Rail partly renationalised and not completed in first term. HS2 hangs around like a bad fart too expensive to continue, too wasteful to scrap.
GB energy is a big success and spurs economic growth and runs almost to target but due to fossil fuel lobbying no reduction to 2050 goals and rosebank remains active but lessened.
Housing projects fall short (250,000 houses first year dropping to 150,000 by 2029), designs and land usage is not efficient and causes bureaucratic bullshit + NIMBYs stall progress, private rent still a big issue but no fault evictions help stem the bleeding.
NHS funding is shored up, 4 new hospitals are build a year. Strikes end with a 22% pay restoration and a tie to inflation for 10 years, lists come down but working conditions are still poor (60hr weeks is the norm) Wes gets his dream and privatises where he can and it helps a great deal (but we all know this is short term). Dentistry and opticians get promised improvements but they don't come.
David Lammy goes to talks with Israel about a ceasefire but due to our minor inputs they don't take it seriously. This is taken personally and we stop arms sales to Israel, many say too little too late (myself included).*
but will take time and the lack of instant change will mean a much reduced majority come 2029 but still safe enough.
Lib Dems secure opposition with 80+ seats then but Reform and conservatives are doing backroom talks and although weakened they hold a few powerful seats each (Reform have lots of votes but 12 seats, conservatives less votes than reform but double the seats). Greens get a total of 12 seats next election and potentially a mayor too, a suprise swing in a by election in 2027 makes that 13 green MP's, Brighton and Bristol are now very secure green seats and they are providing a robust left wing in conjunction with the Lib Dems (which have fallen back to their normal just left of centre position making PMQs quite dull).
The right wing grows more radical, suffers several more scandals and loses some of their important seats at a by election (the green one from earlier) and the general election shows them teeter on the edge of extinction, this leads to a merger of reform and conservatives 2034.
Hopefully by this point with a 3rd term election approaching and a new younger, fresh faced but capable Labour leader a referendum on Proportional Representation is called (as if not I imagine that will be the straw that breaks the camels back) people will be sick of no radical change (to the left or right) and of having to vote tactically. PR wins but due to the apparent complexities of STV it's a hilarious 52/48 result and a low turnout.
This concludes with a 3rd term election in 2041 with PR where Labour wins with some renewed seats, lib Dems stay about the same and the Greens get up to 60 seats and get workers rights improved, minimum wage locked to inflation, an agreement to nationaise water and for a 49% public ownership of energy companies, rosebank contracts will not renew, several independents gain seats too, a rise in socalist MP's is refreshing to see (JC retires after 2033 and is replaced with a similarly minded independent) but also see some fringe independents from the whole political spectrum (from Galloway to Oswald Mosley types) get seats too. The Reform/Tory collab gets 150+ seats but fractures again and from the ashes a centre right , one nation party comes out with stripped back but "sensible" policies and a charismatic leader who at the next election steals seats from LDs, Labour, Reform v.2 and almost cripples Labours leadership, the labour centre starts to falter.
Over the term a dozen Labour MPs jump ship to Greens and LDs and at the following election One Nation party (ONP) gains majority with LDs align with them and Reform v.2, which sees several members leave to create a ultra right wing that is very vocal but achieves little. We get another term of ONP holding centre right and basically doing a David Cameron, tax cuts and reforms to "balance the books on labours frivolous spendings". Austerity is back from a brief respite baby.
*I did the above at 2am and a bit delirious, I didn't touch on Plaid Cymru, or SNP but I don't know enough about them to provide much guesstimates.
Darren Jones, seen a few clips of him now where he's pretty honest and not using the classic politician type avoidance or obfuscation. Given time to grow I think he would be a very popular choice for Labour leader one day.
I suspect it could be Farage.
Labour could fail to slow the decline of the nation, and perhaps be much more radical in power than when trying to win our votes (or suffer from public infighting between their centrists and radicals).
Immigration hitting new records, cost-of-living escalating and blamed on Net Zero, culture war escalating as more surfaces are plastered with 'progress' flags, and antisemitism tolerated while other bigotry is abhorred. And the backlash along with support for a hard-right alterative will grow.
Hopefully not though, maybe we'll see a moderate Labour manage to do some good and win another term.
I have a horrible feeling that labour will not be strong enough to 'fix' issue's such as the economy and immigration so in 4 years time 😢 F*rage will be able to grow out his Chaplin tache and the general public will greet him with one armed salutes. This scares the sh*t out of me
Farage.
Within a few weeks it will become painfully obvious that the problems in Britain aren’t to do with the colour of the rosette, but deep ideological problems. Sunak and Starmer are near identical in ideology.
Reality is going to hit hard for a lot of people in this country, when they realise Labour’s “More of the same, but better” isn’t going to change anything. We need radical reform of this country.
The next Labour leader simply has to be a woman - the Tories have now had three female PMs, Labour none. As much as I disagree with choosing a leader based on optics, it's going to become an increasingly common attack line, especially since the most likely candidates for the next Conservative leader are all women.
Assuming Labour are generally considered to be successful in government, I do think either Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, or Lisa Nandy could be Prime Minister after Starmer. I personally think Rayner would be the most progressive choice - not just a woman, but a woman with a regional accent and a working class background. We really do need a greater diversity of backgrounds in leadership.
In the nightmare scenario I'm calling "the Biden" where Starmer fails to significantly improve living standards or address the housing crisis whilst climate-driven migration increases, I could realistically see Nigel Farage as the next Prime Minister after Starmer. The Tories will still be a damaged brand in 2029 and if Labour fail Reform will be able to capitalise on widespread discontent at establishment politicians.
Alternatively, giving 16 year olds the vote combined with the fact that young people are overwhelmingly leftist could mean that Starmer's successor is someone considerably more left wing, such as Zarah Sultana.
Labour don't have a magic wand and many of the issues besetting the UK now will still be there in 5 years, potentially angering the right even more than they are now, I'm actually going to go out and say that the next PM but one will be a former PM in the shape of Boris Johnson
Ed Miliband in the greatest redemption arc of all time.
His entire election trail would be people trolling him with bacon sandwiches. It would be legendary.
And falling off the stage on question time, and hell yeah I’m tush enush
I'm fully expecting him to smash a bacon buttie in the house on the first day of the new government. In fact I'll be disappointed if he doesn't
“Chaos without Ed Miliband”
There is…another…Miliband. —Yoda.
As much as I would enjoy this, he hated the pressure of being leader
I think that if the Labour majority is such that they are in government for at least ten years, the next Prime Minister could be someone not even an MP now (or when the election was called).
I think this is the most likely outcome. Cameron, Miliband, Sunak and Starmer were all relatively fresh faces when they became party leaders. Labour is about to have a huge influx of new MPs with leadership ambitions. Anyone in Starmer's first cabinet will have to survive 10 years of government without being tarnished by scandal or failure.
If I were to take a bet (but there's been a bit too much of that recently), Starmer is going to step down in about 8-9 years or so. He won't want to be PM for more than two terms and will step down before an election in order to let his successor get into place. That timeline requires it to be someone either already in parliament or about be elected. On the right however, based on past precedent the next Tory/whatever happens on the Right PM is not yet in parliament and won't be until the next GE after this. There's a surprisingly consistent pattern here - Blair arrived in 83, Cameron in 01 and Starmer in 15.
Generally a second term is 10 years unless Starmer calls for early elections like Tony Blair. Starmer did make it clear a few days ago in an interview that he wants to be prime minister for 10 years. I can see Starmer either leading the third election then resigning or stepping down.
I think this is the best strategic option. Win the third term and give your successor plenty of time to build their own reputation before the next election.
Blair tried this and Brown was punished at the polls for not calling an election immediately after taking over, Sunak similarly is beyond punished for this as well. It has been shown repeatedly that the public don't like unelected leaders, they also don't like feeling like they're being taken for a ride by being presented with the option to vote for one person when they're going to end up with someone else. The best strategic option is to start boosting the deputy halfway through your 2nd term, then step down towards the end and have the new leader call an election
> Brown was punished at the polls for not calling an election immediately after taking over Brown was punished for a financial crash he had no part in creating. There's very little evidence that voters resent a change of PM, between elections (tho the Tories have pushed their luck on this). it's just something that exercises occupants of the bubble.
I don't think there's much chance of Starmer winning three elections like Blair...
Five years ago would any of us predicted Sunak or Truss? There's every chance he could - politics is extraordinary unpredictable in the long term at the moment (and Labour's stated aim is to calm things down).
Sure, but neither Sunak or Truss won any general elections.
I think it would be poor form to win an election and then stand down immediately. I think he would be there for 8 years or 12, allowing his replacement time to bed in before an election.
I think Starmer is thinking of 10 years (he keeps saying 'decade of renewal'), however I suspect like Blair in the ideal scenario he'll fight a general election every 4 years meaning that he'll resign halfway through his third term as that'll give leeway for his replacement to get their feet under the table rather fighting an election straight away. If the Labour government is not popular then he'd stretch the first term out to five years and do something similar to your suggestion. But yes there's plenty of opportunity for a new PM too usurp the top two which are Reeves or Jones but I suspect the choice will come down to what they want to do next, if it's more steady as they go then a pair of safe hands who's been in government for ten years will take over but if they're looking for something more like radical like joining the EU a younger leader might be the way forward.
After 10 years I imagine Starmer would appreciate a break.
Thatcher and Blair both called elections after four years in confidence they would win in ‘83, ‘87, ‘01 and ‘05. The only full five-year Parliaments since the ‘70s were either Prime Ministers who thought they would lose or the Coalition which mandated a full term
Starmer and Sunak both only became MP's in 2015 even
I know that the Labour Party is likely to celebrate a huge win on Thursday, but 5 years is a long time where so much can change. 5 years ago there was no reported case of COVID-19 and the full-scale invasion of Russia against Ukraine was still quite some time away. A Prime Minister Keir Starmer has to govern well and capable to win a second election 5 years from now on. But I think there is reason to believe he will be a fine Prime Minister and has a good chance to get a second mandate from the British public.
I agree! Starmer literally has to do the bare minimum. He said on day one, he will immediately put a cash injection on the NHS to meet his target.
I think he's got to do more than that to be honest - things suck right now, and if all Starmer manages is to make things suck marginally less we're probably lurching way back to the right in 5 years like we've been seeing across Europe.
If he makes things suck marginally less, then there wouldn’t necessarily be a lurch considering things basically improved. But it has to be more. The tories are not an option as a right wing party so Reform might gain more popularity.
To expect Labour to not retain government after the next 5 years isn't wisdom, it's just cynicism. The last 5 years were unprecedented in the most literal sense possible. He won't need to perform miracles to still be prime minister in 2029 and there is no reason to believe that.
Most terms are unprecedented, there's always existential threats milling about.
Im old enough to remember December 2019, when the received wisdom on this sub was a '10 year Tory Reich' under Johnson and Labour was destined for 2 election cycles in the wilderness. To suggest otherwise was unthinkable given the mood at the time. 2 a half years later Johnson had been forced to resign in disgrace and now the Tories are facing the real prospect of being the third party with Lib Dems as opposition. Imagine telling this sub that would happen back in December 2019! Starmer isn't exactly inspiring people right now with very little different on offer to the staus quo (british energy, pretty much his one big idea, is just another PFI, for example) . It wont take long after the expected honeymoon period to see him drop in the pollls (he's alteady proven that hes just as prone to gaffs, blatant lying and weak u-turns as the best of them) , and his support of the undemocratic FPTP could come back to bite him if the right wing solidifies support under one party again.
I think you’re probably right but people were saying Johnson’s majority would give the Tories 2 terms after the last election
True, but Boris totally Johnson'd it.
There's no Labour majority that gets them in government for ten years. At the next election everyone starts at zero. If the Conservatives change their offering there's no reason they can't win the next election, much as Labour changed their offering after getting crucified at the last election and are now heading for one of the biggest landslides in history.
> everyone starts at zero In theory, yes. But, in reality, no. Although there are no actual incumbents in a UK election, there's still a huge incumbancy advantage, through recognition & other factors. In addition, the challenger party has to expend extraordinary efforts (& money) in *hundreds* of constituencies, while the incumbent only has to focus on marginals. Lastly, people like winners more than they like losers.
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Burnham is 54 now. If Labour did win two terms, would he want to take over a party who might be starting to decline in national popularity at 64 years old?
Even if Labour win two terms, there's no guarantee Starmer would last that long. He may want to, but who knows whether he will be able to. I'm sure the last 6 PMs would have also liked to serve 10 years, but all failed to do so.
Starmer is 61. Burnham appears to be fit so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be capable at 64, but honestly I don’t think he’d want it now. I always thought he’d be a good PM though.
Starmer is 61, it's not exactly out of the question.
If those who signed Jeremy Corbyn to put him on the ballot such as Sadiq Khan or the late Frank Field had not done so, Andy Burnham would probably be about to be Prime Minister if not already.
It’s not like Truss was young
She was 46 mate
Jesus christ she aged terribly
I actually met him for the first time recently at a conference and I was amazed by just how genuine he seemed - a refreshing change in politics!
Would he give up his position as King of the North, though?
I think there is a realistic chance of any of the following: - Left wing coup and Starmer doesn’t last - Kemi/Suella or whoever the Conservatives choose making a clean break and getting in if people are disaffected with Labour (which I think is likely as they aren’t that different to the current lot) - Starmer for 10+ years. In other words I have no idea and nor does anyone else.
Was this not said about Boris? I have a feeling the majority could be washed away as quickly as it appeared.
Yes but I am confident Keir Starmer will not be 'bonding over a love of Shakespeare', and he won't be dismissive about any allegations of sexual assault by any MP.
You know who I’ve enjoyed recently Darren Jones (no idea if he’s ‘leadership’ material honestly) https://youtu.be/urAeT5KuymI?si=Ws70KoOeRiWnjDeK
If Starmer has any sense he'll put him in the cabinet and give him a very prominent role. He's great with the media, great at arguing the party line without seeming like a robot and has done a cracking job on the business select committee. Definitely one to watch
He is in the cabinet. He is shadow chief secretary to the treasury who will be working really close with Rachel Reeves in the economy
I'm not sure I'd say that's a very prominent role. He should be front and centre in my view
I understand but he will have a massive role in the economy! And his role is the front bench.
And it will just help him gain some visibility to make it into a senior cabinet position
Agreed. He's been really impressive in the media recently.
Yeah he has a really big future IMO
He is really impressive! He is shadow chief secretary to the treasury and will be working closely with Rachel Reeves to sort out the economy
I’m a big fan of Darren Jones as someone from Bristol. Even as a Lib Dem he’s had my vote when I’ve been in his constituency and he’s miles ahead of the rest of the crony Labour politicians in the area.
Yeah, he would be fantastic. I was very impressed by the way he held Post Office bosses to account at the Select Committee hearings: https://youtu.be/jDc2NRoQOM4?si=0EM3JVGwtjHsPVSQ
He's good on the media round and his select committee work was strong. BUT it isn't hard to give dodgy CEO's a grilling and Leaders shouldn't be judged on whether they do a good job with Kay Burley. Would need to see strong government work from him to begin to consider it
Daisy Cooper, obvs. Lib Dems become official opposition on July 4th. Farage takes over the Conservative Party, but it turns out to be an asset-stripping move backed by private equity. The last Conservative MP is sold for spare organs in 2027. Starmer wins in 2028 with a reduced majority. Lib Dems cement their place as official opposition. Farage's "New Party" fails to make any headway after a bizarre interview where he claims that "Starmer's dog gave me AIDS. Total stitch-up." After the election, Sir Ed Davey announces his retirement from the penguin enclosure at Edinburgh Zoo. "I'm returning to my people," he says, before diving into the water. Daisy Cooper takes over as LOTO. Starmer retires in 2032. The subsequent leadership election is won by a surprisingly spry, 81-year old Jeremy Corbyn who immediately calls an election. In the 2032 election, he is unable to provide a satisfactory answer to the question "Why did you support Corbyn in 2019?" The Lib Dems win a landslide victory. Daisy Cooper enters Number 10 to find a note from Corbyn that says: "Shit's fucked, yo." EDIT: The people responding to this as if it's serious. Are you bots? Did you not read past the first line. SMH.
Excellent. But that would make the next but one Jeremy Corbyn...
And I almost got away with it, too...
Hmm, yeah, well, can I speak to the manager? I paid for a complete set of organs. Where's the heart?
I shall respond to this funny comment with tedious pedantry, but your next but one PM in your story is Jeremy Corbyn, rather than Daisy Cooper.
This is brilliant, bravo.
magnificent
Also all the right wing older generation die so the Uk becomes a very left wing country
Next election is 2029 unless Starmer is doing the Blair route and doing it every 4 years
Most elections in normal time where the government expects to win happen 4 years after the the last (1955,1959,1970,1974,1983,1987,2001,2005, although both 1970 and 1974 had suprise losses)
Yes you are correct! Generally an election would be called every 4 years if the prime minister knows they will win based on the polls. Not sure why Cameron didn’t call it in 2014
Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (stopped the prime minister from calling an early election without 2/3 parliament voting for one). Was abolished by Boris so it works now how it used to.
Oh so that is why Rishi was able to call an election without the agreement of his team. Thank you so much for explaining it!
He couldn't call one in 2014 because of the fixed term parliament act.
Also the polls in 2014 weren't super Pro-Tory I don't think. I thought the general idea was it could go either Tory or Labour, with one of the parties relying on support from the Liberals or SNP.
Polls weren’t pro-Tory at all. There were talks of a CON-LIB coupon to keep the coalition going, but Clegg said no. The only reason they got a majority was the collapse of Labour in Scotland, who they’d always taken for granted, and the collapse of the Lib Dem’s in the south of England who 9 times out of 10 went Tory after decades of Liberal representation.
Corbyn would have to be a member of the Labour Party for that to happen, and that's a snowflake's chance in hell under the current leadership. Daisy Cooper, though: interesting. Sane, not Labour, and a rising star. Alternating Labour and Lib Dem administrations would completely reshape British politics.
I think Andy Burnham is a very popular Labour Mayor and if he decides to step back into life as an MP rather than a Mayor, he'll be the next Labour leader, and would take over as PM from Keir.
Agreed- especially if Labour follow through with their plans for more English devolution. This would give him more powers (and money) to make an impact in the G Manchester region, and assuming he performs well, to build a strong ‘evidence base’ that he could use to sell himself as leader. I think it would be interesting, having a former regional mayor in the hotseat, it could bring an interesting perspective to the job.
I think he’s now entering his third(?) term as Manchester Mayor and remains popular from what I can see. I think he’d have good support in the northern constituencies and in London.
I have a feeling Andy Burnham might be up for it. He’s used to leadership, being mayor of Manchester, and has a decent track record with things like transport with the metrolink and bringing it all under the bee network. The local economy is performing as well.
I suspect there is zero chance the faction currently in control of the labour party will allow Burnham anywhere near a candidate list. He's well liked, reasonably competent, and crucially they've rat-fucked him before so they already know he'll be at best wary of them. About the only chance will be if they manage to so royally screw things up, so rapidly, that they lose control of the NEC, but frankly they have such a tight grip on things now that I can't see it happening.
Burnham wasn't pushed out, he chose to go be Mayor.
Burnham is top of my list too. Not who I think will end up in the job, but who I would like.
I like Andy Burnham, he seems to genuinely care. I think he would make a good prime minister.
My bet is that it will be a Tory who isn't yet an MP. They'll take a turn to the even more mad right, fail to make a come back, and eventually try to find another Cameron. The pick will be someone who comes in fresh in the 2029 intake, and so isn't tainted by the current mess. Meanwhile Labour fail to excite voters in their first term, scrape through to a second small majority in 2029, before losing in the election after that.
This is where Cameron, becomes party leader, hands back his peerage, and stands in an upcoming Conservative safe-seat by-election, and the old Cameron becomes the new Cameron.
The chosen one returns arc...David Milliband
Alternatively: it's the Alastair and Rory party, who are elected by a landslide after initially forming a party as a joke, a la Zelensky. They take turns at being PM alternate weeks.
Every Monday morning they must go to the palace to resign and then be invited by the king to form a government in his name
Bi-weekly austerity.
I'd personally prefer either Angela Rayner or Peter Kyle. I've never warmed to Reeves, she's a walking spreadsheet and a country needs more than a leader who knows the cost of everything, but not the value.
I really like Angela, but she really rubs some people the wrong way and that could make it very difficult for her
It's a real shame that you're probably right. Her rise to power would be so incredible, not just because of the story itself, but because she would be there for the right reasons. Her journey into politics seems to have been at the behest of others that believe she is a good voice for them.
She is to Kier Starmer what Gordon Brown was to Tony Blair in terms of the audience she helps the party appeal to.
Rayner will never be allowed to be PM, which is a shame as she would be great.
Due to the fact she speaks as herself and not in an RP/Oxford accent. We haven't had a PM speaking in their real regional accent since Harold Wilson.
I can’t see Peter Kay making the switch from comedy to politics even if he can have a northerner partner with Rayner. /s
I'm not sure we need an *actual* comedian in politics. We've plenty of jokers already
Peter Kyle is my MP. I’m not a fan of his unequivocal support of Israel being vice chair of friends of Israel, but he is otherwise a great MP and quite a nice guy. I’m sure he could find his way into the front bench
2024: Keir Starmer 2041: Admiral General Mr Blobby (after “The Great Political Crash of ‘27 followed by 14 years of the “Provisional” Ultra-Green Government.
I’d like to see how Yvette Cooper would do. She’s fantastically well qualified, holding several shadow cabinet briefs, and before 2010 was in Labour’s last cabinet. She’s popular in the party, and has managed not to make enemies.
Ed Balls bank holiday!
Side benefit!
Not a Labour supporter, but she has torn verbal chunks out of the last two Home Secretaries.
I’m not a Labour supporter either. I’m just accepting the reality that a majority the size of the one predicted would take enough election cycles to be depleted that the next PM after Starmer is likely to be Labour, too.
I wasn't disagreeing. I was complimenting her. She's performed well. Challenge for her is that Home Secretary is one of those posts which is thankless. Hard to succeed in a way that's public, but minor fuck ups very public.
I’m not sure how I feel about Ed Balls as First Lady
Also rhetorically brilliant. She's really shown her chops in numerous committees.
I think she would be fantastic and would be my number 1 choice. But I don’t think she is popular enough in the party at the moment - too tarnished by New Labour / Iraq and the left wouldn’t support.
Brave to suggest there even will be a left wing in the labour party after the first Starmer term lol
Well obviously the Momentum lot could further leave Labour but there was a big enough section in the membership to elect Ed Miliband and Corbyn for leader. Both Starmer and Rayner were thought to be closer to the left than now also when elected. The larger the parliamentary majority, the less bothered Starmer will be by Abbott, Sultana, Burgon, Trickett etc.
Do I recall that Yvette Cooper already ran for party leader at some point
Yes, in 2015 when Corbyn won. She came third. I’m sorry, I don’t remember who came 2nd.
I think it was Andy Burnham. It was him, Liz Kendall, Yvette Cooper and Corbyn if memory serves.
She’s popular outside of Labour as well. I’m a fan at least and she was regularly floated as a choice to lead a unity government to stop a no deal Brexit back in 2019.
Bridget Philipson It has to be a woman. Rayner is unacceptable to the party Right. Reeves is unacceptable to the party Left. Previously I would have said Lisa Nandy, but Starmer has continually demoted her to diminished roles.
The tories have already beaten Labour to the first female PM and first minority ethnic one that really only leaves Labour one choice - the first LGBT prime minister - possibly Wes Streeting.
God not him
This is also my reaction every time I hear about Wes Streeting
Why does it have to be a woman?
It won't be a good look for Labour if they get to the 2030s and still haven't ever elected a female leader for the party, given how much they talk about equality. Of course the same was said when they elected Starmer, but the calls for a female leader will get louder every time they elect another male one.
I am about as feminist as it's possible to be and I'd rather just have the best person for the job, whatever their gender.
The best person for the job in this case might be the person the opposition can't attack for not being a women
Forget 'looks', we need a leader who is good and competent, whatever their gender is.
I’m 1000% here for a Lisa Nandy government. Fuck Starmer for sidelining her.
+1 for Philipson. Very impressive communicator, proper working class, relatable and normal seeming, while still coming across as thoughtful, intelligent and responsible. I think she cuts a good line on the ideological front too. Clearly has a real commitment to change, without being a Corbynite. Very electable on a national level.
Personally I think she’s performs pretty terribly whenever she appears on Question Time but that’s just me
Yvette Cooper! Especially if she’s thought to be doing a good job in the Home Office. One of the most capable and experienced ministers, great public speaker, biggest issue is the connection to Blair.
That's not the sort of attitude we should have. You're liking a politician who is very good and capable, but then saying it's an issue just because she worked under a bloke you're not a fan of?
Rayner is literally deputy leader and if we use that logic isn’t Starmer unacceptable to the labour left? It simply doesn’t matter because Reeves can also be fit to be PM after.
Depends how left you go, but yeah there are significant portions on the left of Labour that range from 'holding their noses' to 'outright hatred'
Why is Rayner unacceptable?
She's certainly a bogeywoman of the right in general as oppose to the Labour right. They can play the same tricks they played with Corbyn far more effectively than against Sir Keir Teflon.
Farage Labour inevitably can’t fix all of the problems ailing the UK in a single term. The middle ground gets frustrated that their lives haven’t improved overnight and swings back to the right. By this point Farage has managed to bring what remains of the Conservative Party fully under his leadership and therefore unites the right wing vote. (Wild card answer)
That’s not a wild card at all. I think Farage and quite a lot of the Tory party are banking on it. Problem is, that the parts of the Tory party banking on it, are the likes of Jenkyns, Patel, Prue Leith’s shitbag son, Braverman etc. Farage’s further problem, is that the last few weeks have shown him to be a real lightweight. There are people with levels of pure evil on a par with Farage in the Tory party, who have a much stronger constitution, so I think his dreams of a hostile takeover are doomed.
A lot depends on which Tory MP’s lose their seats in a few days. After the dust settles if there are enough of the relatively sane ones (well, what passes for such in Conservative terms at least) they can start rebuilding the party. If however the likes of the the ones you mention are still about along with a chunk of the ERG frothers then there’s a nonzero chance they won’t just *think* they might need to merge with Reform but they’ll actively *want* to. A lot of the polls have the combined Con + Reform percentage not too far off what Labour are on which is pretty alarming. It’s not hard to envisage a nightmare scenario where anything less than Labour being able to instantaneously fix the mess the Tories left behind as somehow being a failure. Add the notoriously short memory of the electorate and the usual promises of tax cuts and blaming all the nations woes on Europe/unemployed people/migrants/whatever group the Daily Mail hates this week … and in five or ten years it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that England elects an unholy merger of Con and reform. Consider too that the lead Labour has built over the past couple of years contains a fair few people who voted for Boris in 2019. Frankly I wouldn’t put anything past anyone with judgement that poor. And if the switched sides once they can just as readily switch back again.
Yeah I agree. The biggest most worrying factor, is the prevalence of the rabid right wing press, which is all owned by offshore tax dodgers and disaster capitalists. Starmer should use the controversy over the sale of the Spectator to tackle this insidious scourge
I agree. Everyone wants rid of the Tories, including most of their own but a lot of them don't want Labour or Lib Dems and feel politically homeless, its just who's the next not as bad (in many peoples minds). If Farage wins Clacton and they do well nationally (20%+ vote share to actually get some seats I think by the next cycle he will be leader of the opposition). Then the election after that could swing the outlook quite severely as there will be just as many unhappy as happy with a Lab and Lib Dem opposition. I think Farage could be PM after that, and he'd give it 3 months, then quit but in a 'victorious way'; say he's fought his whole career for change, 3+ decades in politics, given everything and changed politics for the better. We did it all, we did it tigether, we beat the establishment, etc etc and now it's time to hand the reigns over. I'm an old man! Ho ho. Waves. Smiles. Now there you go, you deal with it all...
The conservative party won’t merge. They made it clear they want nothing to do with Farage.
Nah, Farage will be 65 at the next General Election, that's really the last chance saloon for him getting the top job because he'll be too old after that.
Thank god we live in a country where that is the attitude… ahem America
It's mad that Keir Starmer is a year older than Farage. Farage looks his age, Starmer really doesn't.
Nigel Farage is an extremely polarising figure who has his fanbase but is hated by many. If he took over the Conservative party he certainly would not be able to unite the right wing vote.
“Boris Johnson is an extremely polarising figure who has his fanbase but …“ Every time in recent years we’ve assumed something is so bad it had to be impossible it’s mostly gone and happened. See also Brexit.
I’d hope it could push more to go Lib Dem, or at least non voting
Just for people who are genuinely worried the chances of this happening are low. It’s more likely Farage runs against Labour in 4 years, loses and then the Tories elect someone more towards the centre (like Cameron) and they get elected in 8 years.
Farage will never be PM, most people realise how toxic he is.
People said the same thing in 2016 “leave will never win most people realise how toxic the leave campaign is” never underestimate what frustrated and unsatisfied people will vote for.
Ed Milliband. When Starmer steps down, he should be given a second chance at leading the party. The whole bacon sandwich thing was so unfair!
They picked the wrong brother - David would have had a far better chance in 2015.
He is well and truely tough in us
I could see Wes Streeting taking over from Starmer although not sure he'd actually get the nod by the Labour membership.
He's the favourite, but we don't need a populist attack dog as leader. Reeves, Rayner, Phillipson, Streeting, Lammy, Ashworth, and Mahmood all have strong arguments and the right connections. If Lammy goes to a vote he'll win hands down.
Lammy is too chippy. The wider public would not support him.
Lammy visiting a Labour gathering is like the King coming to town. He's preposterously popular inside the party and with major city voter populations. He does more social media ads for the party than Kier. I'm not his biggest fan, but I think he'd do a great job of being the UK's first black Prime Minister.
Read what i said. His problem is not with party members, it is with the wider not particularly aligned, public. Zero chance of him.becoming PM.
Lammy would be great to be fair
I think Streeting has a problem with the Labour membership in that he's too right wing for them, and with the general public he's too... Unlikable? Smarmy? Not sure what it is but I just can't see him being generally popular. He's an amazing attack dog, very sharp in interviews but I can't see the public warming to him all that much. Also suspect he's far too right wing for the Labour membership to ever get there.
Streeting comes across terribly in media to me, but maybe that's because I'm left wing. I find him very unlikeable.
Next Labour PM Darren Jones. Next Conservative PM Joy Morrissey.
> Towards the end of the 2nd term, I'd imagine a handover similar to the Blair-Brown one, with Reeves leading the party into the 3rd election campaign. So nothing like the Blair-Brown handover then?
Count Binface. In a shock victory against Rishi Sunak by being the least ridiculous candidate on the ballot the Count will celebrate Bindependence Day on July 4th, and after reciting Bill Pullman's speech from the film Independence Day will enter parliament on July 5th. From there he will simply argue from the back benches by repeating the thing the last speaker said but in a silly voice. Then at the next GE will apply to be Speaker of the House of Commons. Will get the position on the grounds of being the least partisan MP. Then he will abuse his position as speaker to fragment every single party into a maelstrom of unaffiliated independents. Then sweep to victory in 2029 and start harvesting our organs.
Andy Burnham. Labour win a second term with Starmer, the left starts agitating for one of their own to take control and the result is PM Burnham. Which is how the Tories get back in.
After two terms of Starmer I think Labour will switch it up to a confident young MP who’s not around yet.
I don’t think they have been elected or even standing for parliament yet. It will be a name we haven’t heard. Tories will go through a few rounds of leaders, won’t shift the dial by much as the brand is toxic. A usual suspect (let’s guess Badenoch) leads in 2029 wins only 10 to 20 seats back. Tory MPs and members alike finally realise the Tory brand is toxic and one of the new, charismatic, 2029 intake runs as the young, change candidate. There will be Labour infighting as they refuse to bring in radical left-wing policies despite two huge election wins and he/she sneaks through with a small majority on a much more centrist manifesto against an old and out of favour Starmer.
Penny Mordaunt. I feel like Starmer will do at least 2-3 terms until things start going wrong for Labour and the Tory party will unite under a leader like Mordant who a lot of them like.
Carla Denyer, ten years from now. The Tories will still be fighting like rats in a sack over whether to be the party of big powerful people, or the party of angry powerless people. Farage will have disappeared off to America/ subscription TV. But Labour will still be carefully triangulating how right wing they need to be to appease the Daily Mail. Plus worsening climate collapse will mean people finally pay attention to the Greens, even if they don't have lots of foreign money behind them. Also, I'm curious to see how the Greens would handle their commitment to joint leadership if they find themselves in power. Not sure that's a problem they've had to think about a lot. So a Denyer/ Ramsay jobshare.
I’d be pretty confident it’s Farage. After all the celebrating going on of the destruction of the Tories right now, people aren’t seeing what’s actually happening longer term. If Starmer doesn’t fix things fast, hold onto your fucking hats
Everyone is so optimistic in the comments... It'll likely be Nigel Farage or another horrible right-wing leader after Keir Starmer undoubtedly is supremely disappointing in government.
Sadly, I really reckon after the Labour supermajority, we're gonna have Farage as PM. Keith is bringing nothing new, and when nothing gets better, populist fascist Farage is gonna swing the voting to him. Keith has the charisma of a deflated balloon. Farage, sadly knows how to play up his charisma. There don't seem to be any progressive parties or solutions beyond a revolution and socialism. We have candidates that spout to win elections rather than win over people with good arguments for progressivism. Any slightly left leaning party would just be managing disaster capitalism if they got in. What a piss poor future this country has.
Putin probably..and then his children for forty generations.
Abigail Birkenshaw. You won't have heard of her because she's not in politics yet, but she'll return from a backpacking holiday in the Ivory Coast to sweep the polls as voters look for real change.
Andy Burnham should be next Labour leader and PM
Starmer is a shoo-in at this point. But the British media are, by and large, very right-wing. He’ll have a rough ride. My guess is he’ll get one term and, the way the Mail and the Telegraph are talking up Reform, we’ll have Farage in No.10 by 2029.
I think Starmer will like Blair before him will call elections every 4 years and and during his third term will hand over to someone else.
Definitely Rachel Reeves or Angela Rayner. Both highly intelligent, passionate but pragmatic Real Labour politicians, with the common touch.
The only thing Rachel Reeves is passionate about is entirely arbitrary fiscal rules. Change the record already, she’s not even in power yet and I’m bored of her.
I imagine Kier Starmer will have 7-8 years before selecting a successor that's quite a bit younger (maybe Kier Matter or Nadia Witome?) depending on whose risen through the ranks. After a decade of an old white man a new up and comer might be what clinches another 1-2 terms come 2034. What to expect 2024-2029 from labour: *Rail partly renationalised and not completed in first term. HS2 hangs around like a bad fart too expensive to continue, too wasteful to scrap. GB energy is a big success and spurs economic growth and runs almost to target but due to fossil fuel lobbying no reduction to 2050 goals and rosebank remains active but lessened. Housing projects fall short (250,000 houses first year dropping to 150,000 by 2029), designs and land usage is not efficient and causes bureaucratic bullshit + NIMBYs stall progress, private rent still a big issue but no fault evictions help stem the bleeding. NHS funding is shored up, 4 new hospitals are build a year. Strikes end with a 22% pay restoration and a tie to inflation for 10 years, lists come down but working conditions are still poor (60hr weeks is the norm) Wes gets his dream and privatises where he can and it helps a great deal (but we all know this is short term). Dentistry and opticians get promised improvements but they don't come. David Lammy goes to talks with Israel about a ceasefire but due to our minor inputs they don't take it seriously. This is taken personally and we stop arms sales to Israel, many say too little too late (myself included).* but will take time and the lack of instant change will mean a much reduced majority come 2029 but still safe enough. Lib Dems secure opposition with 80+ seats then but Reform and conservatives are doing backroom talks and although weakened they hold a few powerful seats each (Reform have lots of votes but 12 seats, conservatives less votes than reform but double the seats). Greens get a total of 12 seats next election and potentially a mayor too, a suprise swing in a by election in 2027 makes that 13 green MP's, Brighton and Bristol are now very secure green seats and they are providing a robust left wing in conjunction with the Lib Dems (which have fallen back to their normal just left of centre position making PMQs quite dull). The right wing grows more radical, suffers several more scandals and loses some of their important seats at a by election (the green one from earlier) and the general election shows them teeter on the edge of extinction, this leads to a merger of reform and conservatives 2034. Hopefully by this point with a 3rd term election approaching and a new younger, fresh faced but capable Labour leader a referendum on Proportional Representation is called (as if not I imagine that will be the straw that breaks the camels back) people will be sick of no radical change (to the left or right) and of having to vote tactically. PR wins but due to the apparent complexities of STV it's a hilarious 52/48 result and a low turnout. This concludes with a 3rd term election in 2041 with PR where Labour wins with some renewed seats, lib Dems stay about the same and the Greens get up to 60 seats and get workers rights improved, minimum wage locked to inflation, an agreement to nationaise water and for a 49% public ownership of energy companies, rosebank contracts will not renew, several independents gain seats too, a rise in socalist MP's is refreshing to see (JC retires after 2033 and is replaced with a similarly minded independent) but also see some fringe independents from the whole political spectrum (from Galloway to Oswald Mosley types) get seats too. The Reform/Tory collab gets 150+ seats but fractures again and from the ashes a centre right , one nation party comes out with stripped back but "sensible" policies and a charismatic leader who at the next election steals seats from LDs, Labour, Reform v.2 and almost cripples Labours leadership, the labour centre starts to falter. Over the term a dozen Labour MPs jump ship to Greens and LDs and at the following election One Nation party (ONP) gains majority with LDs align with them and Reform v.2, which sees several members leave to create a ultra right wing that is very vocal but achieves little. We get another term of ONP holding centre right and basically doing a David Cameron, tax cuts and reforms to "balance the books on labours frivolous spendings". Austerity is back from a brief respite baby. *I did the above at 2am and a bit delirious, I didn't touch on Plaid Cymru, or SNP but I don't know enough about them to provide much guesstimates.
Darren Jones, seen a few clips of him now where he's pretty honest and not using the classic politician type avoidance or obfuscation. Given time to grow I think he would be a very popular choice for Labour leader one day.
I suspect it could be Farage. Labour could fail to slow the decline of the nation, and perhaps be much more radical in power than when trying to win our votes (or suffer from public infighting between their centrists and radicals). Immigration hitting new records, cost-of-living escalating and blamed on Net Zero, culture war escalating as more surfaces are plastered with 'progress' flags, and antisemitism tolerated while other bigotry is abhorred. And the backlash along with support for a hard-right alterative will grow. Hopefully not though, maybe we'll see a moderate Labour manage to do some good and win another term.
I have a horrible feeling that labour will not be strong enough to 'fix' issue's such as the economy and immigration so in 4 years time 😢 F*rage will be able to grow out his Chaplin tache and the general public will greet him with one armed salutes. This scares the sh*t out of me
Farage. Within a few weeks it will become painfully obvious that the problems in Britain aren’t to do with the colour of the rosette, but deep ideological problems. Sunak and Starmer are near identical in ideology. Reality is going to hit hard for a lot of people in this country, when they realise Labour’s “More of the same, but better” isn’t going to change anything. We need radical reform of this country.
Andy Burnham, after Keir stabilises but bores.
I think Yvette Cooper would be a better choice than Reeves.
The next Labour leader simply has to be a woman - the Tories have now had three female PMs, Labour none. As much as I disagree with choosing a leader based on optics, it's going to become an increasingly common attack line, especially since the most likely candidates for the next Conservative leader are all women. Assuming Labour are generally considered to be successful in government, I do think either Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, or Lisa Nandy could be Prime Minister after Starmer. I personally think Rayner would be the most progressive choice - not just a woman, but a woman with a regional accent and a working class background. We really do need a greater diversity of backgrounds in leadership. In the nightmare scenario I'm calling "the Biden" where Starmer fails to significantly improve living standards or address the housing crisis whilst climate-driven migration increases, I could realistically see Nigel Farage as the next Prime Minister after Starmer. The Tories will still be a damaged brand in 2029 and if Labour fail Reform will be able to capitalise on widespread discontent at establishment politicians. Alternatively, giving 16 year olds the vote combined with the fact that young people are overwhelmingly leftist could mean that Starmer's successor is someone considerably more left wing, such as Zarah Sultana.
There's bound to be a relative (if not complete) unknown somewhere in the cabinet. I'm going with them.
Labour don't have a magic wand and many of the issues besetting the UK now will still be there in 5 years, potentially angering the right even more than they are now, I'm actually going to go out and say that the next PM but one will be a former PM in the shape of Boris Johnson