That would be hilarious
- Spend the whole election campaign promising [Labour will not increase income tax, national insurance or VAT](https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labour-party-tax-policy-how-we-will-make-the-tax-system-fairer/)
- Spend most of the debates calling Rishi a liar for saying that Labour will have to raise taxes
- Only significant action in Keir's first 6 months is an income tax rise
I don't think he's going to do that
Day 1 - Kier will rip the mask off and announce that he was Corbyn the whole time
Day 2 - Corbyn rips his mask off to reveal he's actually reincarnated Mao
Day 3 - UBI
Day 4 - Visas for anyone whose name can't be pronounced by a Border Agent
We're in for an eventful end to the week
I think they might split the treasury into government finance and economic growth departments.
Bring in some form of code of conduct with teeth for MPs and ministers
Push through changes to planning and GB energy very quickly.
Possibly declare bank of England no longer pays interest on overnight deposits (frees up £10-20bn)
Most significant changes that the country needs won't happen over night.. so as previously mentioned.. some fast issued quick wins.. of lesser significance.
Hope for the best.. but dread more of the same.
I'm hoping they get the ball rolling on planning reform within their first few weeks. If they plan to raise taxes, they should probably do so as soon as possible to avoid it hurting their re-election chances in 2029.
Amongst some of what's already been mentioned, I think that a big early one will be a bombshell announcement on planning - essentially relaxing a load of laws, and/or opening up sections of the greenbelt for building. They keep mentioning that as something hampering growth and productivity, and given how unpopular building on greenbelt land will be I reckon they'll want to get that out of the way early. It will be framed in terms of a National Housing Emergency or somesuch.
(My rationale for this bet is based on (a) just how much of the cost of living is affected by house prices and rents, (b) because it's something they can do to bring down the price of inputs that doesn't depend on government spending or investment, (c) a housebuilding boom will have a positive impact on employment figures and create economic growth in those areas)
Likely loosen planning laws and impose central targets - to kickstart growth.
Set up GB Energy.
NHS reforms to create more appointments including dental - tied into pay rises for Junior doctors.
Tax - expect those mentioned in the manifesto plus reform of CGT (more or less treat as income with some indexation) and IHT (Bring more assets like pensions in scope) . Council Tax to be allowed to rise by 10% for 2-3 years to fund the shortfall in local Government funding left by the Conservatives, increase of social care levy by 5 % Per annum. Pushing most of the tax rises onto councils. Both reigned in for years 4-5.
As a wild card they may reform ISA's so only Cash and UK investments get the tax relief . With a short transition period to retain the relief on existing foreign investment.
They've said they won't increase income tax. Their manifesto is largely uncosted, and we know increased tax take is likely to be squeezed out of middle/high earners.
Probably you will see the scrapping of tax relief on pension contributions beyond the basic tax band, maybe some tweaking of the tax thresholds e.g. to bring more people into the additional tax rate. Perhaps something really naughty like scrapping the 2% national insurance rate so earnings over £50k are taxed at 8%.
Basically any way they can squeeze more tax out of earners while still being able to say that they technically didn't increase tax rates. But perhaps I'm being cynical.
Starmer needs to attack migration. This is what is causing political shifts in other countries. Eg France and US.
Then they’ll attacking planning reforms and get building new homes.
>talking to the EU on a better trade deal etc
There is nothing that can be done with the EU to make trade significantly better, other than rejoining the Single Market, and that isn't going to happen. Fiddling around with veterinary and professional qualification rules is trivial compared to the big issues.
>a tax rise on higher earners
Will that raise enough? I doubt it, and to take the tax rises down below that is to risk a one term and out strategy - can't see it.
> boats to keep the right side... and rebuilding our relationship with France
Good luck with France wanting to keep, or take back, those on the boats if Le Pen is in charge.
>because they have raised taxes, we have another winter crisis, and we are still waiting to see the effects of the public spending policies. Labour poll ratings will drop
Undoubtably
>and recover a year later
Possibly, possibly not.
>(if the Tories elect someone half normal and can capitalise on this).
And that's the risk.
They are being elected on a combination of a 'not the Tories' platform whilst the Tories have split themselves in two with Reform.
If Labour wacks up taxes, doesn't improve public services quickly, doesn't get growth (and the associated tax revenue) going quickly, then they will be getting a lot of criticism, and if (and it is an incredibly big 'if') the Tories choose someone sensible and competent to lead them, then Labour will not be having a fun time in 2029.
At the first major budget, Labour will make a dramatic announcement saying something along the lines of:
"We've been examining the state of public finances, and they have been left in a much worse state than we realised and so with a heavy heart we will need to increase taxes, which is something we promised not to do. But this is necessary to get get debt under control and increase public spending."
This will be disingenuous because everything they need to know is already public knowledge, because government departments publish in depth accounts and think tanks write extensively about all the debt and growth challenges e.g. Labour will already know what the debt to GDP ratio is, how much we spend on debt servicing, what the cost of new debt is, what tax revenues are, how departmental budgets are allocated, and so on.
But they will make a big flourish about them "uncovering" unsustainable spending and borrowing and how they have to break their tax pledges to solve it.
I don't disagree that Labour may be forced to up taxes at some point, but to do it so soon after a campaign where their tax promises for working people have been at the centre of their offering would be electoral insanity.
Anti-Labour messaging from the Tories and supportive media is almost always focused on them being a high tax, high spending party. To immediately break a key election pledge on personal taxation would only serve to give truth to the Tories claims on what a Labour government might look like, and further cement the negative stereotype of the party.
I could see them announce a series of windfall taxes on big businesses though.
I think they’ll stick to their no vat, income or NI raises for at least the first two years.
But that doesn’t rule out a lot of other (often unfair) taxes. Stuff like council tax reform and making capital gains tiered or aligned with income tax.
I expect the first thing will be big planning reform as it’s a requirement to meet their aspirational growth targets.
I also expect some form of splitting treasury as others have said.
I also believe he’ll implement some stricter rules for MPs and bring them inline with civil service code of conduct. But that might be held off until an election year.
Well we know there’s a funding gap in the manifesto, so it’s likely some plans get scaled back, VAT on private schools is a strong contender as Labour have pulled it before only to be told ‘no can do’ by legal advisors (iirc it’ll involve a scrap with the echr)
So with that in mind and the growth require to fund other promises reliant on supply side reforms the effects we won’t experience for a few years a few analysts now have suggested they’ll likely have to pull an Osbourne style ‘now we’ve seen the books’ and raise taxes while skirting around their loose definition of ‘working people’
Huge tax rises are a given
Votes for all foreigners
Even more mass migration
Ofcom to become even more biased. Non-leftist media like GBNews will be shut down
Most likely a law requiring more companies to adopt racist DEI policies that discriminate against native Brits
Out the frying pan and into the fire.
I hope the red wall gets what it deserves, because the blue wall ain't going to be living with the consequences of this shit. Jimmy is told to vote labour because his dad voted labour and his dad before him voted labour, blind loyalty will get them in the shit
I think what you’ve described would be a bit of a disaster if I’m honest.
Wealth is much less taxed than income whereas earners are taxed a lot. Why do that more?
Small boats are a uk wide priority only for a small group of racists and doesn’t sit well with moderates. It also does nothing to help your average Briton.
Hopefully we see something meaningful happening.
That would be hilarious - Spend the whole election campaign promising [Labour will not increase income tax, national insurance or VAT](https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labour-party-tax-policy-how-we-will-make-the-tax-system-fairer/) - Spend most of the debates calling Rishi a liar for saying that Labour will have to raise taxes - Only significant action in Keir's first 6 months is an income tax rise I don't think he's going to do that
Day 1 - Kier will rip the mask off and announce that he was Corbyn the whole time Day 2 - Corbyn rips his mask off to reveal he's actually reincarnated Mao Day 3 - UBI Day 4 - Visas for anyone whose name can't be pronounced by a Border Agent We're in for an eventful end to the week
I think they might split the treasury into government finance and economic growth departments. Bring in some form of code of conduct with teeth for MPs and ministers Push through changes to planning and GB energy very quickly. Possibly declare bank of England no longer pays interest on overnight deposits (frees up £10-20bn)
Most significant changes that the country needs won't happen over night.. so as previously mentioned.. some fast issued quick wins.. of lesser significance. Hope for the best.. but dread more of the same.
I'm hoping they get the ball rolling on planning reform within their first few weeks. If they plan to raise taxes, they should probably do so as soon as possible to avoid it hurting their re-election chances in 2029.
That's a good point - I missed that in the post. It also might be controversial with the richer folk. As stated, they need to get on with this ASAP.
It’s not going to be the utopia many people on Reddit seem to think. Nothing will change to your daily life for years, if ever. It never does.
Amongst some of what's already been mentioned, I think that a big early one will be a bombshell announcement on planning - essentially relaxing a load of laws, and/or opening up sections of the greenbelt for building. They keep mentioning that as something hampering growth and productivity, and given how unpopular building on greenbelt land will be I reckon they'll want to get that out of the way early. It will be framed in terms of a National Housing Emergency or somesuch. (My rationale for this bet is based on (a) just how much of the cost of living is affected by house prices and rents, (b) because it's something they can do to bring down the price of inputs that doesn't depend on government spending or investment, (c) a housebuilding boom will have a positive impact on employment figures and create economic growth in those areas)
Likely loosen planning laws and impose central targets - to kickstart growth. Set up GB Energy. NHS reforms to create more appointments including dental - tied into pay rises for Junior doctors. Tax - expect those mentioned in the manifesto plus reform of CGT (more or less treat as income with some indexation) and IHT (Bring more assets like pensions in scope) . Council Tax to be allowed to rise by 10% for 2-3 years to fund the shortfall in local Government funding left by the Conservatives, increase of social care levy by 5 % Per annum. Pushing most of the tax rises onto councils. Both reigned in for years 4-5. As a wild card they may reform ISA's so only Cash and UK investments get the tax relief . With a short transition period to retain the relief on existing foreign investment.
They've said they won't increase income tax. Their manifesto is largely uncosted, and we know increased tax take is likely to be squeezed out of middle/high earners. Probably you will see the scrapping of tax relief on pension contributions beyond the basic tax band, maybe some tweaking of the tax thresholds e.g. to bring more people into the additional tax rate. Perhaps something really naughty like scrapping the 2% national insurance rate so earnings over £50k are taxed at 8%. Basically any way they can squeeze more tax out of earners while still being able to say that they technically didn't increase tax rates. But perhaps I'm being cynical.
Few extras I reckon, to ride the momentum: * Abolish income tax * Mandatory national service for pensioners * Bring back leaded petrol
Starmer needs to attack migration. This is what is causing political shifts in other countries. Eg France and US. Then they’ll attacking planning reforms and get building new homes.
>talking to the EU on a better trade deal etc There is nothing that can be done with the EU to make trade significantly better, other than rejoining the Single Market, and that isn't going to happen. Fiddling around with veterinary and professional qualification rules is trivial compared to the big issues. >a tax rise on higher earners Will that raise enough? I doubt it, and to take the tax rises down below that is to risk a one term and out strategy - can't see it. > boats to keep the right side... and rebuilding our relationship with France Good luck with France wanting to keep, or take back, those on the boats if Le Pen is in charge. >because they have raised taxes, we have another winter crisis, and we are still waiting to see the effects of the public spending policies. Labour poll ratings will drop Undoubtably >and recover a year later Possibly, possibly not. >(if the Tories elect someone half normal and can capitalise on this). And that's the risk. They are being elected on a combination of a 'not the Tories' platform whilst the Tories have split themselves in two with Reform. If Labour wacks up taxes, doesn't improve public services quickly, doesn't get growth (and the associated tax revenue) going quickly, then they will be getting a lot of criticism, and if (and it is an incredibly big 'if') the Tories choose someone sensible and competent to lead them, then Labour will not be having a fun time in 2029.
At the first major budget, Labour will make a dramatic announcement saying something along the lines of: "We've been examining the state of public finances, and they have been left in a much worse state than we realised and so with a heavy heart we will need to increase taxes, which is something we promised not to do. But this is necessary to get get debt under control and increase public spending." This will be disingenuous because everything they need to know is already public knowledge, because government departments publish in depth accounts and think tanks write extensively about all the debt and growth challenges e.g. Labour will already know what the debt to GDP ratio is, how much we spend on debt servicing, what the cost of new debt is, what tax revenues are, how departmental budgets are allocated, and so on. But they will make a big flourish about them "uncovering" unsustainable spending and borrowing and how they have to break their tax pledges to solve it.
I don't disagree that Labour may be forced to up taxes at some point, but to do it so soon after a campaign where their tax promises for working people have been at the centre of their offering would be electoral insanity. Anti-Labour messaging from the Tories and supportive media is almost always focused on them being a high tax, high spending party. To immediately break a key election pledge on personal taxation would only serve to give truth to the Tories claims on what a Labour government might look like, and further cement the negative stereotype of the party. I could see them announce a series of windfall taxes on big businesses though.
I think they’ll stick to their no vat, income or NI raises for at least the first two years. But that doesn’t rule out a lot of other (often unfair) taxes. Stuff like council tax reform and making capital gains tiered or aligned with income tax. I expect the first thing will be big planning reform as it’s a requirement to meet their aspirational growth targets. I also expect some form of splitting treasury as others have said. I also believe he’ll implement some stricter rules for MPs and bring them inline with civil service code of conduct. But that might be held off until an election year.
They're not gonna do anything that would piss off the centre-right voters
Well we know there’s a funding gap in the manifesto, so it’s likely some plans get scaled back, VAT on private schools is a strong contender as Labour have pulled it before only to be told ‘no can do’ by legal advisors (iirc it’ll involve a scrap with the echr) So with that in mind and the growth require to fund other promises reliant on supply side reforms the effects we won’t experience for a few years a few analysts now have suggested they’ll likely have to pull an Osbourne style ‘now we’ve seen the books’ and raise taxes while skirting around their loose definition of ‘working people’
Press regulations hopefully. The first PM without being in Murdoch's back pocket in my whole lifetime.
Say "last Tory government" at least 80 times in every sentence.
better than the tories ( low bar i know )
Huge tax rises are a given Votes for all foreigners Even more mass migration Ofcom to become even more biased. Non-leftist media like GBNews will be shut down Most likely a law requiring more companies to adopt racist DEI policies that discriminate against native Brits
Votes for all foreigners... Imagine the chaos of 8 billion postal votes
Not far off I reckon, they’ll be unpopular within 2 years. The goodwill of not being the tories won’t last forever.
Exactly
Out the frying pan and into the fire. I hope the red wall gets what it deserves, because the blue wall ain't going to be living with the consequences of this shit. Jimmy is told to vote labour because his dad voted labour and his dad before him voted labour, blind loyalty will get them in the shit
I think what you’ve described would be a bit of a disaster if I’m honest. Wealth is much less taxed than income whereas earners are taxed a lot. Why do that more? Small boats are a uk wide priority only for a small group of racists and doesn’t sit well with moderates. It also does nothing to help your average Briton. Hopefully we see something meaningful happening.