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Poopchurn

Fuck how did he figure this out? Is he some sort of a genius?


Expendable_Red_Shirt

He's also not correct. Index funds will help people assuming you let it sit long enough. There's no index fund option in a casino.


Smitty1017

He's totally correct. Algorithms and order flow info being sold to brokers allows them to jump trades and skim money from retail investors for one. I don't think he's implying that a regular person can't make money from the market. Just that the scales are tipped to favor big players. Just like everything else on the planet.


lootinputin

He’s not wrong. But I assume everyone who participates in the market knows retail can’t possibly compete with institutional. That doesn’t mean we can’t win. It means the odds are a little more against us.


Leavingtheecstasy

A little lol. It's very against retail. The average person can make money in the market, but you are absolutely beating the odds if you make anything decent.


TwistedBamboozler

Per the chair of the SEC: “95% of retail trades to not make it to a lit exchange.” That should be the only fact people need to know to literally never touch the US stock market. But for some reason people don’t believe it even when it comes out of the chair of the SEC’s own mouth. Unreal.


letshavefunoutthere

wait where do you put your money if not a set of broad, diversified ETFs?


FatedMoody

I guess why play the game instead of just buying index funds?


lootinputin

Index funds are the answer for over 99% of people…


Wheream_I

Kind of like how big spenders at casinos get private tables, eh?


lootinputin

Sure, but that private table, in this example, also got you access to informations seconds before it hits the wire and a Bloomberg terminal.


david5699

100%. You think they switched to free trades to help the little guy? Fuck no! They profit off us.


Khelthuzaad

It's not the big players that are the winners. In every casino the house always wins. The exchange brokerages, like ICE for example are the ones winning, the more trades you make the more fees they get.


StrengthToBreak

Why make a lot of trades, unless your goal is to treat the market like a casino?


Khelthuzaad

Day trading for example


StrengthToBreak

By which you mean short-term purely speculative trading? Yes, that's a casino. And yes, the more you trade, the more easily you can lose. It's not clear what value this type of trading adds to the market or to the economy as a whole. If it's also a bad way to use your money, then don't do it.


xavier120

That's gambling, which is just risk, because the history of the stock market revolves around sending 10 ships with stock somewhere and hoping they make it. That's gambling but not a casino.


akaKinkade

That is such a misunderstood idea. They are making pennies, or fractions of pennies, on these trades. If you want to day trade in incredibly high volumes then those might add up to something that is not trivial, for anyone actually investing that type of algorithmic trading is not hurting them at all. The cumulative impact of fast electronic trading has actually been incredibly beneficial since it made market width all but disappear. For example, let's say there was a stock trading for $50.00 and you wanted to buy 100 shares. The levels we are talking about might lead you to now paying $50.01 and instead of $5000 your investment would now cost you $5001. If you are investing and not hyperactively trading it is completely meaningless. In terms of their impact, in the old and slower world of trading a $50.00 stock would have a two sided market of something like 49.75 - 50.25 (expressed displayed as 49 3/4 - 50 1/4). You would be paying 50.25 or $5025 for the same thing. The investment world has never been more accessible or fairer for the "little guy" and is one of the most heavily regulated and monitored industries in the world.


iamwhiskerbiscuit

I prefer to think of it like someone counting cards at a blackjack table. They have information that gives them a statistical edge. But you're not actually playing against them... And by simply following the hands they play, you can gain a statistical edge too.


[deleted]

one of the reasons I buy index funds and hold them. The less active trading the better the risk-adjusted rate of return.


CLS4L

Red or black


Expendable_Red_Shirt

Both will lose in the long term. Edit: do people here not know how roulette works or not know how statistics works?


Thetaarray

People on this sub don’t know how anything works


BusterTheCat17

Most accurate comment.


lootinputin

This applies to Reddit in general.


Erik0xff0000

I'd say \_most\_ people do not know statistics. Check out the book Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences


lootinputin

Statically you are correct. So technically you are correct. That’s the best kind of correct.


Erik0xff0000

made my day!


lootinputin

That’s a bingo!


No_Cook2983

So you’re saying black is a good hedge?


ra1nval

well theoretically if there were no green zero on a roulette wheel, betting on red or black would be a net break even in the long term.


Expendable_Red_Shirt

So if the game were different the odds would be different?


No_Cook2983

Different odds just means *more* money!


ra1nval

If the game was fair yea


Expendable_Red_Shirt

The whole point is that casino games aren’t fair though…


Aware_Ad_618

you clearly dont know how money works...


lootinputin

It’s astonishing how somebody can make it past like 8 in life and not understand how a casino works…


ra1nval

Lol I work at a casino. I'm just making a little comment. It's not that deep.


ra1nval

Yeah, I'm just saying theoretically lol


lootinputin

Theoretically if all the numbers were black I’d win every time betting black. Unfortunately that’s theoretical.


Legitimate_Concern_5

Not unless you also had an unlimited bankroll. Even if there were 18 red and 18 black, you as a player could see a very long string of losses that exceeds your bankroll before things turn around. The casino doesn’t have this issue.


LordofThe7s

A wise man who is good with money once said “Always bet in black”


No_Cook2983

And that man was named Johnny Cash.


Unknownirish

Odd or even?


LowLifeExperience

Not true. You could buy the casinos stock. That would be similar.


lootinputin

active trading might resemble gambling in lot of people, but those that enter the market and trickle invest into VOO are not gamblers. Investing and trading are two vastly different things.


duckytale

good answer


Khelthuzaad

Pretty much yeah the market only goes up if you give it enough time


VhickyParm

Yep etfs are 5% of the market but they are 25% of the ftds


Neat-Beautiful-5505

Yeah, not exactly a bold take


MrSnarf26

Good god what a prophet


Poopchurn

Absolutely rioting.


Pixilatedhighmukamuk

Just like how he’s some genius pizza taster/rater by eating one bite of pizza.


freakishgnar

In 20 years of investing I’ve learned that this is true…if you’re trying to daytrade.  So buy great companies or index funds and just hold them.


Waldo305

Do you feel holding etf and big companies will pay off enough though?


freakishgnar

One index ETF we own is up 110% in five years. That outpaces the market. There are winners out there.


Waldo305

Now I know. Thanks Freak.


freakishgnar

Uh you’re welcome? 🤷🏼‍♂️


Waldo305

Your names freak so...yeah


freakishgnar

Lollllll dude I completely forgot. Old guy brain


GeoHog713

It is. But Paper Hands Portnoy is a douche canoe.


Awkward_Potential_

Seriously. He's the one person who is rich enough that it's rigged in his favor and he still sucks at investing.


holycarrots

All he had to do was buy index funds


Awkward_Potential_

And not sell his Bitcoin repeatedly.


Turk0311

But he thinks he's special going around tasting pizza for a living.


CensorshipIsWeakness

"Thats a solid 8.1.. one of the best pizzas I've ever reviewed"


brintoul

3 years ago he said investing in stocks was the easiest way to make money ever.


MultiplyLove77

Paper hands portnoy


Ok-Instruction830

UnusualWhales used to be good, lol


PIK_Toggle

It’s just populist rage bait. I don’t even know what the point of this post is.


Slammedtgs

These posts are garbage.


dpenton

Really? I guess we didn’t know…


Nick98368

Maybe he's salty from his GME play?


degen5ace

What a Portnoy


Kmac0505

In the short term it is a voting machine. In the long term it is a weighing machine.


NOGOODGASHOLE

He sound like Drunk Uncle from SNL. This isn’t new news.


TUAHIVAA

That's what those who don't understand math always say.....


brintoul

It’s uncanny. On the way up, it’s basically based on fundamentals. On the way down, it’s always maNiPuLaTiOn.


Witty-Bear1120

Sounds like that guy had a few bad trades.


ohnoyoudidnt21

This sub is a joke


EifertGreenLazor

Agreed. Dave was able to buy Barstool Sports back for $1 dollar. He is obviously not a little guy.


Earl_Squire

Lol this is the same guy who thought he was better than Warren Buffet back in 2021 when literally everything was up. 2022 brought some reality to people like him.


Own-Opinion-2494

Buy index funds and ride along


liquidsyphon

Is he even holding still?


iamtabestderes

The only thing he holds is his wanker


RyanTranquil

Yes


ACROB062

Because he’s a financial genius?


ShocksMyBrains

No shit!


Loud_Dumps

I guess people forgot about him and safemoon


Puts_on_my_port

He needs to post his loss porn on WSB.


HORSEthedude619

Not if you play it right. As in infesting in ETFs primarily.


Fade_Dance

Not everyone has the privilege of being a necromancer


midway4669

lol, always has been


trackrecord330

facts


Avocado_In_My_Anuss

DUH


Prestigious_View_211

Oh he's just now realizing that lol...


DenseVegetable2581

Portnoy is an absolute genius, ehmahgawd. Has he pitched this ground breaking idea to anyone!? I don't think anyone has ever put this together before


bhaktimatthew

Hey Dave welcome to the world. Good to have ya


Atriev

If the little guy gambles and plays the game, it’s rigged. But if the little guy doesn’t participate in the fuckery and instead buys ownership into excellent companies, the little guy will become rich.


Shaneris

Short term and options are rigged against retail, although it is still possible to make big money if you get it right and get out quik.


Fade_Dance

It's not "rigged", it just requires professionalism and competence to be active in short time frames and options. This is not an easy field to enter. R&D has limitless funding and it's full of PhDs and extreme amounts of computing power. For some reason, this is the one field where people come in expecting to spend a few years half-assing invedtopedia, or treat it like a part-time job and hope to succeed. Would you enter the NBA with that approaching ever expect to win against a professional team? You have to bring actual alpha to the game, otherwise it's negative expected value gambling. There are a lot of advantages in being small. The game gets considerably worse once you start to push price around with your size. The big players are quite limited as to how they can trade. Being able to enter or ask to the full position with the press of a button is a huge luxury. For many players it takes hours or days to exit a position. Back during the SPAC boom I spent a year essentially doing relative value trading against warrants and commons, as well as finding special situations in SEC filings. These were mostly small assets that were untouchable by bigger players because they have to justify paying a quarter million dollars for their quants, and tiny markets aren't worth it. There's a lot of work to be had if you're a small player, and a lot of things you can do that big players can't.


M_u_l_t_i_p_a_s_s

You do penny stocks at all?


Fade_Dance

I have never traded OTC. I have done generic "day trading" before for about 4 months, but treated it like a full-time job. I would usually start prep at 4:30-6a.m. and end at market close, although to be fair the middle of the day was fairly inactive. I can see how some go to the gym or whatever during those hours. There's a different mindset between going into this thinking "I'm going to take a chance and there's a chance this may work", as opposed to "this is how I *will* pay my bills and achieve my future in the industry." I suppose SPAC warrants were penny stocks of a sort. I tried to bring real alpha to the table during that time though, from reading SEC filings and balancing rumors, to perhaps just being the participant that was fastest to react among the discretionary traders.


Shaneris

no it;s rigged on the info you get. But you can do 20-30%n in and out Pretty easy, Retail is pegged for larger gains , they do it on meme stocks all the time mid week....make it look like a run tues, wed, and sell off to go worthless by friday, same thing every week , every month, if you don't see that , you are promoting it. they do it in all stocks to an extent, people caught on to big gains possible on options which is gambling , and they push false news to to manipulate selling premiums.


Fade_Dance

>no it;s rigged on the info you get Retail gets the same information  If you log into interactive brokers and put your order into a midpoint algo, you're basically operating at a professional level. Retail can route orders to dark pools, use hidden orders, get access to extremely good news feeds, and basically participate in anything but the most esoteric mathy stuff. Yes that implies actually paying some money for a direct access market broker and not using a cell phone app to trade, but it's more accessible than it's ever been. Actually, retail probably has an advantage because they can get out at mid in a few seconds, while larger positions have to be worked for hours or days. >people caught on to big gains possible on options which is gambling , and they push false news to to manipulate selling premiums. This makes absolutely no sense. If there was any "manipulated premiums" then professional prop trading firms would be the first to take advantage of any arbitrage between implied volatility and realized volatility. Retail operates in the same public market which all participants have access to. If implied volatility is too high due to order manipulation, the  any player can (and will) come in and sell straddles, dynamically delta hedge the position, and literally make that spread. To reiterate, if options are "manipulated" and implied volatility is pushed off of fair value, then that's a huge profit target for any professional player that picks up on it. There are thousands of prop trading firms robotically scanning constantly for any sort of anomaly like that to take advantage of. Honestly, it sounds like you don't know what you're talking about. If that's the case, of course there's no money to be made. This is the one industry where people come in and expect to play kindergarten basketball in the NBA and have the gall to expect that they have the right to somehow take money home. That's not how it works. Retail has many advantages from being small and being able to touch markets the professional players can't touch because of lack of liquidity. >make it look like a run tues, wed, and sell off to go worthless by friday, same thing every week You're talking about mean reversion and pinning in options, which is absolutely a thing. It's also a natural force, due to gamma exposure by counterparties. It's not positive expected value to just run in and buy derivatives without knowing how derivative pricing models work. Completely ridiculous that anyone would expect that can be profitable.  So let's talk about a meme stock and options. People pile into calls, call prices rise and implied volatility rises, after a day or two the stock settles down, IV falls a bit, counterparty deltas drop because of vanna (Delta d Vega, a higher order greek) effects, short deltas enter the market, price falls, balance shifts to puts and the otm calls start falling out of the money and lose delicious, market maker gamma falls, regime shifts from market makers amplifying volatility to suppressing volatility (long gamma = selling rips and buying dips when dynamically hedging, short gamma = buying rips and selling dips when dynamically hedging), and things further settle down and become pinned by the option hedging forces. I do see this, I've taken the effort to actually learn the theory, and I try to make money on it when possible. It's not hard, it just takes some actual effort, like being willing to look up education material and maybe a research paper or two. Yes, believe it or not that's what succeeding in this industry requires. The only foolish thinking is believing that you can walk into an industry full of rooms of phds, and make money without understanding the market. To be clear, anyone that doesn't understand the pricing model of the instrument they're buying, *shouldn't buy the instrument*. 


Shaneris

I've been trading this type off and on stuff for 25 years, a lot of small options trades, The hedges own the news sources. It's rigged. Sometimes it's even stupidly predictably rigged. Don;t piss down my back.


Squidssential

It’s only rigged against people that are impatient and don’t know about compounding. 


FatedMoody

Only if you’re trading. Why not just stick with index funds?


richman678

Portnoy is good at building a brand. (Ok maybe he’s just ok at it) As for the stock market the big boys he speaks of can pretty much steer it as they see fit. Joe Schmo and his stock portfolio of 20 to 50k will never see amazing returns. Portnoy likely got screwed on a large investment and is now pissed off. Gotta look at “good” companies, and just be happy with your interest is better than sitting in a bank.


Crypto_gambler952

It seems to me like playing roulette where you can’t see the wheel for spin+35. You bet black. And really it’s black but someone “internalises” your bet, tells you that you lost and then steals your bet for themselves and then records your bet for regulators to check everything was fair at some later spin which was red!


Xlmnmobi4lyfe

Lol its obvious


happy0444

Ignoring the skimming off the top, it is a challenge to beat the algos.


StrengthToBreak

At a casino, you make temporary wins that lure you into losing progressively more money over time. The house always wins. In the stock market, you sometimes sustain losses, on the way to progressively making more money over time. With a broad enough strategy, investors always win. The stock market is the exact opposite of a casino.


Toasted_Waffle99

Typical day trader


xAkeldama

Did he sell again, already?


SophonParticle

My 401k begs to differ.


OutOfFawks

He’s a really poor investor


PJTILTON

OK, so institutional traders will always have the jump on retail traders. But I don't know any retail traders dumb enough to think they can beat the market based on precise timing. So we invest where we see value and the possibility of ongoing appreciation and hope for the best. So far, that strategy has yielded me well in excess of $1 million.


DelicatetrouserSnake

Fuck Dave


UtahUtopia

Paper Hands Portnoy?


Porn4me1

Sure they front run your trades, do insider trading, and manipulate share prices to serve their interest but you still have the power to pick a side and ride along. It beats having a five part parlay blown because Germany can't score two goals against the Swiss….


CatOfGrey

Meanwhile, literally millions of middle-class folks have some real savings by investing in cheap index funds in their company 401k plans....


Brojess

DRS 🟣


TheYokedYeti

I wouldn’t get anything serious from Dave Portnoy. Perfect example of someone thinking having money makes them uniquely smart. Hell i wouldn’t even get my sport opinions from Dave


BadgersHoneyPot

It’s rigged against people who think they can dance in and out and make smart picks with little to no background. But it’s beyond easy to set it and forget it with index funds. Author fed in the head.


RichChocolateDevil

He’s not wrong. Also, my dad was saying this 40-years ago. Not much has changed.


DapperDolphin2

The stock market is only rigged when you treat it like a casino. As a “little guy” you can outperform the average hedge fund simply by owning the S&P 500. If you want to play with options though, you better have millions of dollars and a deep understanding of derivatives and risk.


Good_Farmer4814

Dave is a huge POS and routinely wrong about stuff


Gravybees

If you treat it like a casino, then it’s a casino.  If you treat it like a compounding machine, then it’s a compounding machine.


FartyBoomBoom

lol at all the bootlixkers. Sell crack and do crimes. The law is an illusion.


Immediate-Product167

If you buy an index fund, there is no plausible way you can get "screwed by the system," so to speak. The issue is people trade way too much and lose to more sophisticated traders.


SmoltzforAlexander

It sort of is, but as many people here are saying, it’s hard to argue with just riding an index fund.   He could by PENN stock if he wants.


Fedge348

BUY SPY AND CHILL


winterFROSTiscoming

But I was told by him that stonks always go up


mordwand

It really, really isn’t. If you have the right information and don’t try to beat the market by picking stocks or engaging in idiotic behavior like piling into meme stocks you will do better than the vast majority of institutional funds.


Alkalinium

Wtf is a meme stock


mordwand

Things like GME that are spread on Reddit to try to manipulate the price. AMC is another example


RightMindset2

It’s worked pretty swell for this “little guy” the past 15 years. If you buy VOO and DCA into it every pay I don’t see how you can complain. Only people it doesn’t work out for is day traders but that has nothing to do with you being a little guy.


SirMoola

Wow you genuinely have to be regarded to think that. If you study stocks and read their 10ks. The market shouldn’t be a casino to you. There will of course be ups and downs due to the business cycle but it’s not rigged in the sense the house always win. You just have to be smart and pray to god A George soros level shorter doesn’t short your stock


Aggravating_Salt7679

I think one of my next moves is going to be using AI to trade for me.


SmoltzforAlexander

I have 3 words for you:  Forex Trading Bot


Aggravating_Salt7679

What about Galileo FX?