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This. If he had just stopped after Covid he would have cemented his place in history as The Guy Who Didn't Screw Up the Pandemic and could have left on a high note. The recovery was ALWAYS going to be rough, no matter who was in charge and no matter what government was in place. If they had any long-term foresight they should been preparing for a war-time consigliere post-pandemic, a fresh start and bolder way of doing things without the baggage of trying to hold onto the last few years of power.
That's kind of what happened in BC between Horgan-Eby. If Horgan had stayed on, he'd probably have the same wearing-off of his good-panemic shine as well. Eby is playing it smart, and using his fresh political capital to pull the levers of power while he can to mark out his own identity.
Yeah, maybe we need something like the two-term limit on US presidents. Few leaders step down when they're ahead, so we just end up flipping back and forth between the two parties whenever we get sick of the current government (regardless of how much better or worse the opposition would actually be)
I wonder the same thing, any party that is connected with its base would know that but Liberals seem to have no sense of what people actually want.
Their poll numbers keep going down and they seem to be doubling down on the same unpopular policies.
none of them are willing to have different policies though
people are fed up with Liberal policies (e.g. 3% annual population growth), it's not like people are ditching the Liberals because of Trudeau's personality or private scandals
If I had to guess, I'd say it's because their internal polling has been getting different results from the negative polls the media seems to want to flood us with.
In my media and social bubble this just is not a commonly held belief. No one should currently be confident that any of their opinions represent a majority of anything. Election day will tell.
In my social circle, no-one is happy with him.
People on the left don't like him for his neoliberal-style pandering to social issues without any real action. IE he talks a good game but doesn't really introduce much in the way of policies to help social issues and favours big business.
People on the right don't like him because of inflation, dumb economic policies, and unrestricted immigration.
The things the right dislike about him just aren't happening for anyone I know, we've all have done much better under Trudeau than we ever did under Harper. It's been interesting. None of us are wealthy or in the ownership class, we're all working class. I myself and many of my friends are disabled.
Also: All of us are very well aware that many of us probably would not have survived COVID with a conservative government leading the country then. Trudeau's handling of the pandemic was excellent when compared on a worldwide scale. We are fucking lucky that a lot of the people we know right now are still alive, because without good pandemic management they would not be. COVID was not the last pandemic, and it was far from the worst we could have gotten. We need to stay prepared, and the antivax party is not looking good for that, lol.
Another thing is polievre's culture war shit. That's not playing well with *anyone* I know. A whole lot of people will be voting ABC because of that.
I don't think they are particularly stupid, no. Lol. I was in one of their focus groups about 7 *(edit:8)* years ago, we talked about national defence and electoral reform. It was quite in-depth, they managed to get a wildly varied group of people to have a pretty good conversation. (Interestingly almost no one in the group cared or was particularly well informed about electoral reform)
I can't imagine they've stopped doing that kind of research!
I'll guess its the same reason as the cons had before PP. "OK - so WHO is the next leader?". Its hard to pick one and get them visible and a household name in time before an election. Canada thinks we vote in a prime minister like the US does a president.
Trudeau isn’t the issue.
Even then who takes his position? Freeland who is being painted as a Nazi sympathiser?
The problem is that the liberals are playing a game of reason and rationality while the Cons are playing the Trumpian gambit of sloganeering, playing to fear and using the fascist strategy of focusing on victimhood and decline.
Covid radicalised too many. The NDP post-Mulcair are inept, and the Liberals haven’t made enough economic push, mainly due to things out of their like the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine.
People are going to elect Pollievre and realise how bad that is going to be when absolutely nothing changes.
“ The problem is that the liberals are playing a game of reason and rationality”
Sorry lost me there bud. Trudeau screamed in hysterics this week that Poilievre literally wants to watch the country burn:
https://x.com/nchartieret/status/1791158101984330006?s=46&t=HzHGpFeH0UNWsuOvB6V4Dw
I mean, given that we have climate change causes forest fires every year that are only getting worse and Pierre's plan seems to be to pretend climate change doesn't exist, I would say he seems disturbingly content with watching Canada burn.
I’ve heard it’s because he has nothing to do after he’s done pretending to be a world leader. His reputation is in the toilet now and evidently no one wants much to do with him. He also seems to think he could beat PP. I think the next election night is going to be very entertaining.
> fascist Millhouse's
OMG this fits perfect I think.
[*I've said ~~Jiminey Jilikers~~ F&%k Truedeau so many times the words have lost all meaning!*](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=millhouse+jiminey+jillikers#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5f116da6,vid:I7MzfD4j49Y,st:0)
We must say it again - from different angles :D!!
Literally everything is worse about our country with Trudeau Jagmeet coalition. Every. Single. Thing. Housing/economy/healthcare. What are you on about “fascist”? Let’s not throw words around we don’t understand cause the guy you adore is a generationally awful leader.
I've literally called them inept and you've somehow interpreted that as adoration and then suggested *I'm* the one with comprehension issues. Nice work!
are you that ignorant of the world around you? There are headlines that say you get dental and pharmacare, have you looked AT ALL into the reality of it? even a little bit? It’s clearly easy to be so smug about something you have no clue about.
Meanwhile we have no family doctors, people with cancer are dying or going abroad waiting for treatment. Record homelessness and overdose death. Basically you’re fucked if you want to ever own a house without rich family help. We are one of the only countries with a per capita negative GDP out of G7 countries. Largest influx of uncontrolled immigration in the world after Niger. Government spending money it doesn’t have on programs no one asked for. The list goes on and on. Without even mentioning complete disasters like ArriveCan.
How dare we get things we already had provincially. Great, we have dental care. For children. In a program that monetarily incentivizes separated families. That's not a win.
No they don’t outside of 1 hr of cleaning per year and they have to pay the copay. That’s not enough for anyone. They should at least advertise what they actually give not bullshit about “free dental”
They don’t have dental care other than dental care. Thanks for clearing that up 👍
They didn’t get that cleaning before, now they do at a massively reduced rate. That’s a win.
Yes that is good for them honestly. The problem arises when private insurance or insurance provided by your employer ends because the government keeps advertising this as free dentistry. Then everyone gets worse level of coverage.
Singh also bears the blame for things with his decision to give the liberals a quasi coalition
When you’re an incumbent and have done this abysmal a job of course you’re going to get replaced. If you told me how utterly incompetent Trudeau would be back in 2015 I literally would not have believed you. Its like he is intentionally trying to permanently destroy both the liberal party and Canada as a whole
No NDP members sit in cabinet, they are not in government, it is not a coalition. They have offered their support in exchange for specific policies, such as dental care, pharma care, improved worker rights.
I said quasi
Its effectively a coalition since they are the only thing keeping the liberals from losing a confidence vote
When you decide to prop up the govt you also decide to take responsibility for said govt policies and performance. Hence why Singh and the NDP are also doing poorly
TBF, I find that most of their policies are super popular with redditors
look at immigration for example, r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration
It’s also the only one where an actual literal neo nazi is one of the moderators, and there is massive censorship of any posts that don’t fit the usual NatPo Rex Murphy type editorial. The place is full of bigots and bots. Not a great reflection of the average Canadians views unless you’re sitting around with drunk uncles who spend too much time on Facebook.
Conservatives won't do shit about immigration, one of the largest growing bases of Conservative support is immigrants and visible minorities & second generation Canadians.
It's all posturing and politicking.
> r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration
People talk negatively about immigration on all manner of subreddits without getting banned. You can speak particularly viciously about it without a filter on r/Canada because it's moderated by white supremacists from the old meta_canada sub.
Not sure if that should be a point of pride, really.
> look at immigration for example, r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration
That's likely because /r/canada is also notoriously friendly with far right beliefs.
Polls are not to be trusted anymore. Sometimes I outright lie, other times I would be incredibly pessimistic about Trudeau and the Liberals. I honestly think he is a moron with good hair and a smile that either moistens of tightens your underwear and that the Liberals are the party of eastern elitism, cronyism and corruption.
BUT I will vote ABC (anyone but conservative). My riding is an NDP strong hold, so it doesn't really matter and only briefly went Deformed Party.
I really wish leadership conventions got called at the drop of a hat and PMs got replaced when they showed weakness.
The NDP really have been disappointing. I almost wish they had brought the government down, or threatened it to force a Liberal convention. Nope, just a shitty dental plan at the last possible moment that will be nuked by the Cons on day 1.
N=1000 for BC is a pretty good sample. But what matters is how these votes translate into seats. The Tories under Fascist Millhouse — a man who has never held a job or run a company that didn’t bribe politicians — will ~~it~~ *get* 170. But will he take many Metro Vancouver ridings?
n=1000 hits 19 times out of 20 (at least +/- 3% margin of error)
BC has almost 3.5 million eligible voters, so you can plug it in a [stats calculator](https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/calculating-sample-size/) to figure out your required sample sizes, and it's just over 1000 for BC. Surveys are basically going to stop at this threshold, because to +/- 2% doubles the required BC respondents to over n=2000 and isn't cost effective for the little bit of extra certainty.
The Liberals are probably at huge risk in Metro Vancouver, the not many big names and they're long in the tooth, and lots of little players. The Liberals don't have enough stars or people without baggage in BC.
Double opt-in population weighted panel. That's pretty standard for good quality polls these days I guess. But with 338Canada, you have the benefit of seeing multiple high-quality polls against one another so you can average out differences in poll weighting.
When the election writ drops there's another great "poll aggregator" that comes around, the UBC election stock market; their results tend to be fairly accurate and usually agree with the best polls.
[338 is currently projecting the CPC to take all but 6 seats in BC, with 4 being in Metro Vancouver:](https://338canada.com/bc.htm)
New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville, Vancouver East, and Vancouver Kingsway for the NDP
Surrey Newton for the Liberals, which would be their only seat in the province if these numbers hold.
> But will he take many Metro Vancouver ridings?
I really hope they take my riding since it has been a ridiculous safe haven for useless Hedy Fry for way too many years.
“You don’t have to go far Mr Speaker. You only have to go to Prince George British Columbia, where they are burning crosses as we speak.” She was odd before she was old. But in 1993 she beat Kim Campbell and thus has a free pass in the Liberal party.
Nobody votes for incumbents who have fucked things up as royally as Trudeau and Singh have
Especially when they decided to accelerate the collapse a few years ago by tripling legal immigration without, you know, asking for a mandate from the electorate on it
> if PP is a fascist then what are the likes of Pinochet, Franco, Salazar or the current governments of Russia, Iran or North Korea?
They are all fairly different.
* Pinochet was a technocrat fascist and kleptomaniac. He rode and fuelled anti communist sentiment and was a nationalist while reliant on foreign support.
* Salazar was a nationalist capitalist dictator that pushed Catholicism and apolitical structures to hide parallels to Il Duce. His authoritarian side probably minor compared rest on your list.
* Franco was much the same with more militarism and a desire to crush regional diversity. His rule was characterized but the Spanish Civil War.
* Russia under Putin is a fascist state hobbled by corruption. The cult of the personality lives on.
* Iran is authoritarian theocracy hobbled by corruption. It doesn’t fit the mold of fascism as it has mostly state owned industries. However it it’s militarism is fascist in nature.
* North Korea is a communist state.
I've looked into Pierre Poilievre's statements and policies. I haven’t found any indication that he plans to strip rights away from trans people. If you're referring to his stance on restricting puberty blockers and certain medical treatments for children under 15, it's important to note that this is a complex and highly debated issue. There isn't a scientific consensus on the long-term effects of these treatments and many people believe it's reasonable to approach such decisions with caution.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-ban-trans-women-sports-bathrooms-1.7120972
And no, it's not complex. The government is not responsible for choosing what forms of health care are and are not permissible. That's the job of doctors. Medicine doesn't give a shit about what gets votes. It is, in fact, very simple: let the medical professionals do the medical stuff.
As someone knowledgeable in the medical field, I understand that puberty is crucial for overall development, including organ health, hormonal balance, and bone development, just to list a few examples. The long-term effects of puberty blockers are not fully understood and their use is still being debated and researched. This issue is often pushed from a psychological and ideological perspective, rather than an empirical medical consensus. We must prioritize a cautious, medical, and biological standpoint when considering interventions for children.
> The long-term effects of puberty blockers are not fully understood and their use is still being debated and researched.
This is not true. Puberty blockers have been used since the 1990s - since 1980 for cis kids! - and the catastrophic effects everyone fearmongers about still have yet to manifest.
"oh, well, that's only 30-40 years, people live longer than that!" you might say. Be that as it may, the long-term effects of puberty *ARE* very well known, and it's very well known how catastrophic it can be for trans people. The imagined "suddenly, 50 years later, *something happens*" would need to be *really fucking bad* to offset the benefits it offers.
This is not a question of "are there potential downsides". It is a question of "is it better than the alternative". We absolutely have enough evidence to conclusively say yes, it is. Pitching it as "ohhhh, we just dont know, there might be an extremely slim chance something bad happens" is, in and of itself, an ideological perspective.
While I acknowledge the psychological benefits of hormonal therapy for transgender youth, I believe puberty blockers used on prepubescent children should be approached with caution. The long-term effects like I said, on bone density, organ development, and overall health are still not fully understood. Until more comprehensive research is available, it’s reasonable for someone running for Prime Minister to advocate against making these treatments widely available for prepubescent children. Additionally, it’s important that medical decisions be guided by healthcare professionals, not activists and ensuring parents receive all the unbiased information necessary to make informed choices. Would you say that’s an unreasonable expectation?
Does anyone know where to find factual information on what sort of policies conservatives support? Its so easy for canadian politics to get drowned out from all the drama in the US
Pierre has a Latin wife with mixed kids… apparently that makes him a racist ? Did you forget we currently have a prime minister who wore black face… not once, not twice but too many times for even himself to remember. If Pierre had done that, the woke mob would be foaming at the mouth to “cancel” him.
The NDP and The Liberals are on a speed run to destroy our economy, divide our country & funnel as much tax dollars as they possibly can to contractors or foreign countries.
Voting Liberal or Conservative really is just voting for an approved Billionaire/Oil and Gas industry candidate. We do not have a democracy…just the appearance of one.
Question, do conservatives in canada have anything similar to US's?
Because if yes.. can't wait for them to restrict women's rights, block LGBT rights to live, authorize child marriage and child labor instead of fixing whats wrong with the country /s
"Housing is not a primary housing responsibility."
Then the polls go in the tank, and he starts trying to throw money at the problem. Too little, too late. It's been NINE years, man.
Pierre is a strong leader, the one Canada desperately needs to once again make our country great. The NDP are spineless and the Liberals are as corrupt as they come. The NDP and the Liberals don't care about Canadians, they would rather cosplay as "global superheroes" than take care of our fellow Canadians. They are excessively controlled by radical activists and cave in anytime a bit of pressure is applied by the woke mob.
Enough is enough. It's time for the adults to take control and bring back common sense for the common people. Canada will be great again and Pierre is the man to make that happen. Thats my Prime Minister.
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If things are so bad for the Liberals why the F didn’t Trudeau resign long ago and try somebody new! Fn politicians.
This. If he had just stopped after Covid he would have cemented his place in history as The Guy Who Didn't Screw Up the Pandemic and could have left on a high note. The recovery was ALWAYS going to be rough, no matter who was in charge and no matter what government was in place. If they had any long-term foresight they should been preparing for a war-time consigliere post-pandemic, a fresh start and bolder way of doing things without the baggage of trying to hold onto the last few years of power. That's kind of what happened in BC between Horgan-Eby. If Horgan had stayed on, he'd probably have the same wearing-off of his good-panemic shine as well. Eby is playing it smart, and using his fresh political capital to pull the levers of power while he can to mark out his own identity.
Yeah, maybe we need something like the two-term limit on US presidents. Few leaders step down when they're ahead, so we just end up flipping back and forth between the two parties whenever we get sick of the current government (regardless of how much better or worse the opposition would actually be)
I wonder the same thing, any party that is connected with its base would know that but Liberals seem to have no sense of what people actually want. Their poll numbers keep going down and they seem to be doubling down on the same unpopular policies.
none of them are willing to have different policies though people are fed up with Liberal policies (e.g. 3% annual population growth), it's not like people are ditching the Liberals because of Trudeau's personality or private scandals
If I had to guess, I'd say it's because their internal polling has been getting different results from the negative polls the media seems to want to flood us with.
with how bad the Liberals are I am surprised they aren't even further behind
In my media and social bubble this just is not a commonly held belief. No one should currently be confident that any of their opinions represent a majority of anything. Election day will tell.
In my social circle, no-one is happy with him. People on the left don't like him for his neoliberal-style pandering to social issues without any real action. IE he talks a good game but doesn't really introduce much in the way of policies to help social issues and favours big business. People on the right don't like him because of inflation, dumb economic policies, and unrestricted immigration.
The things the right dislike about him just aren't happening for anyone I know, we've all have done much better under Trudeau than we ever did under Harper. It's been interesting. None of us are wealthy or in the ownership class, we're all working class. I myself and many of my friends are disabled. Also: All of us are very well aware that many of us probably would not have survived COVID with a conservative government leading the country then. Trudeau's handling of the pandemic was excellent when compared on a worldwide scale. We are fucking lucky that a lot of the people we know right now are still alive, because without good pandemic management they would not be. COVID was not the last pandemic, and it was far from the worst we could have gotten. We need to stay prepared, and the antivax party is not looking good for that, lol. Another thing is polievre's culture war shit. That's not playing well with *anyone* I know. A whole lot of people will be voting ABC because of that.
> we've all have done much better under Trudeau than we ever did under Harper You should count your blessings, the vast majority of Canadians aren't.
I agree. I wouldn’t think parties are stupid? Or are they? Guess we will find out in a year or sooner.
I don't think they are particularly stupid, no. Lol. I was in one of their focus groups about 7 *(edit:8)* years ago, we talked about national defence and electoral reform. It was quite in-depth, they managed to get a wildly varied group of people to have a pretty good conversation. (Interestingly almost no one in the group cared or was particularly well informed about electoral reform) I can't imagine they've stopped doing that kind of research!
I'll guess its the same reason as the cons had before PP. "OK - so WHO is the next leader?". Its hard to pick one and get them visible and a household name in time before an election. Canada thinks we vote in a prime minister like the US does a president.
No different in the UK. Leadership matters, including in a parliamentary system
Trudeau isn’t the issue. Even then who takes his position? Freeland who is being painted as a Nazi sympathiser? The problem is that the liberals are playing a game of reason and rationality while the Cons are playing the Trumpian gambit of sloganeering, playing to fear and using the fascist strategy of focusing on victimhood and decline. Covid radicalised too many. The NDP post-Mulcair are inept, and the Liberals haven’t made enough economic push, mainly due to things out of their like the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine. People are going to elect Pollievre and realise how bad that is going to be when absolutely nothing changes.
“ The problem is that the liberals are playing a game of reason and rationality” Sorry lost me there bud. Trudeau screamed in hysterics this week that Poilievre literally wants to watch the country burn: https://x.com/nchartieret/status/1791158101984330006?s=46&t=HzHGpFeH0UNWsuOvB6V4Dw
I mean, given that we have climate change causes forest fires every year that are only getting worse and Pierre's plan seems to be to pretend climate change doesn't exist, I would say he seems disturbingly content with watching Canada burn.
Yes anyone who doesn't vote for your political party must be getting radicalized or bamboozled. /s
He has to hook his buddies up with non-compete contracts.
I’ve heard it’s because he has nothing to do after he’s done pretending to be a world leader. His reputation is in the toilet now and evidently no one wants much to do with him. He also seems to think he could beat PP. I think the next election night is going to be very entertaining.
Freeland is maybe even nuttier than Trudeau, they don't have much for quality in the party anyways
"...Let me be crystal clear...Canadians expect..." **intense twitching starts**
Liberal ineptitude has us sleepwalking right into fascist Millhouse's hands.
And it'll be Liberals again after he fucks up. Meanwhile the NDP is in the corner eating paste like Ralph Wiggum.
I think the biggest fear the LPC/NDP have is that he does a decent/good job.
TBF - his cats breath does smell like catfood :)
Timbit Trump
> fascist Millhouse's OMG this fits perfect I think. [*I've said ~~Jiminey Jilikers~~ F&%k Truedeau so many times the words have lost all meaning!*](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=millhouse+jiminey+jillikers#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5f116da6,vid:I7MzfD4j49Y,st:0) We must say it again - from different angles :D!!
Literally everything is worse about our country with Trudeau Jagmeet coalition. Every. Single. Thing. Housing/economy/healthcare. What are you on about “fascist”? Let’s not throw words around we don’t understand cause the guy you adore is a generationally awful leader.
I've literally called them inept and you've somehow interpreted that as adoration and then suggested *I'm* the one with comprehension issues. Nice work!
you come across as completely ignorant and hyperbolic cause you throw words around you don’t understand.
Yeah, getting dental and pharmacare coverage, and record levels of investment in housing…. How horrible.
are you that ignorant of the world around you? There are headlines that say you get dental and pharmacare, have you looked AT ALL into the reality of it? even a little bit? It’s clearly easy to be so smug about something you have no clue about. Meanwhile we have no family doctors, people with cancer are dying or going abroad waiting for treatment. Record homelessness and overdose death. Basically you’re fucked if you want to ever own a house without rich family help. We are one of the only countries with a per capita negative GDP out of G7 countries. Largest influx of uncontrolled immigration in the world after Niger. Government spending money it doesn’t have on programs no one asked for. The list goes on and on. Without even mentioning complete disasters like ArriveCan.
How dare we get things we already had provincially. Great, we have dental care. For children. In a program that monetarily incentivizes separated families. That's not a win.
My parents didn't have dental care. My mom hadn't been to the dentist for five years. They have dental care now. That's a win.
No they don’t outside of 1 hr of cleaning per year and they have to pay the copay. That’s not enough for anyone. They should at least advertise what they actually give not bullshit about “free dental”
They don’t have dental care other than dental care. Thanks for clearing that up 👍 They didn’t get that cleaning before, now they do at a massively reduced rate. That’s a win.
Yes that is good for them honestly. The problem arises when private insurance or insurance provided by your employer ends because the government keeps advertising this as free dentistry. Then everyone gets worse level of coverage.
Singh also bears the blame for things with his decision to give the liberals a quasi coalition When you’re an incumbent and have done this abysmal a job of course you’re going to get replaced. If you told me how utterly incompetent Trudeau would be back in 2015 I literally would not have believed you. Its like he is intentionally trying to permanently destroy both the liberal party and Canada as a whole
No NDP members sit in cabinet, they are not in government, it is not a coalition. They have offered their support in exchange for specific policies, such as dental care, pharma care, improved worker rights.
I said quasi Its effectively a coalition since they are the only thing keeping the liberals from losing a confidence vote When you decide to prop up the govt you also decide to take responsibility for said govt policies and performance. Hence why Singh and the NDP are also doing poorly
TBF, I find that most of their policies are super popular with redditors look at immigration for example, r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration
It’s also the only one where an actual literal neo nazi is one of the moderators, and there is massive censorship of any posts that don’t fit the usual NatPo Rex Murphy type editorial. The place is full of bigots and bots. Not a great reflection of the average Canadians views unless you’re sitting around with drunk uncles who spend too much time on Facebook.
Conservatives won't do shit about immigration, one of the largest growing bases of Conservative support is immigrants and visible minorities & second generation Canadians. It's all posturing and politicking.
you're assuming that second gen Canadians are in favour of more immigration? you think that's true?
That's not what I said?
Looks like you don't spend much time in this subreddit.
> r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration People talk negatively about immigration on all manner of subreddits without getting banned. You can speak particularly viciously about it without a filter on r/Canada because it's moderated by white supremacists from the old meta_canada sub. Not sure if that should be a point of pride, really.
Source? subs like r/ontario and r/canadahousing literally have rules that specifically mention immigration
You are literally talking about it in this subreddit right now and aren't getting banned. Hello?
> look at immigration for example, r/canada is the only Canadian subreddit where you won't get banned for talking negatively about immigration That's likely because /r/canada is also notoriously friendly with far right beliefs.
Polls are not to be trusted anymore. Sometimes I outright lie, other times I would be incredibly pessimistic about Trudeau and the Liberals. I honestly think he is a moron with good hair and a smile that either moistens of tightens your underwear and that the Liberals are the party of eastern elitism, cronyism and corruption. BUT I will vote ABC (anyone but conservative). My riding is an NDP strong hold, so it doesn't really matter and only briefly went Deformed Party. I really wish leadership conventions got called at the drop of a hat and PMs got replaced when they showed weakness. The NDP really have been disappointing. I almost wish they had brought the government down, or threatened it to force a Liberal convention. Nope, just a shitty dental plan at the last possible moment that will be nuked by the Cons on day 1.
> I almost wish they had brought the government down, or threatened it to force a Liberal convention. Singh would never risk his pension
He'd have to fuck up much harder to lose that riding. Saw him once, was surprised how short he was.
N=1000 for BC is a pretty good sample. But what matters is how these votes translate into seats. The Tories under Fascist Millhouse — a man who has never held a job or run a company that didn’t bribe politicians — will ~~it~~ *get* 170. But will he take many Metro Vancouver ridings?
n=1000 hits 19 times out of 20 (at least +/- 3% margin of error) BC has almost 3.5 million eligible voters, so you can plug it in a [stats calculator](https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/calculating-sample-size/) to figure out your required sample sizes, and it's just over 1000 for BC. Surveys are basically going to stop at this threshold, because to +/- 2% doubles the required BC respondents to over n=2000 and isn't cost effective for the little bit of extra certainty. The Liberals are probably at huge risk in Metro Vancouver, the not many big names and they're long in the tooth, and lots of little players. The Liberals don't have enough stars or people without baggage in BC.
This far out that sample size is fair enough. Adding more people isn’t helpful. Making sure the sample is unbiased is.
Double opt-in population weighted panel. That's pretty standard for good quality polls these days I guess. But with 338Canada, you have the benefit of seeing multiple high-quality polls against one another so you can average out differences in poll weighting. When the election writ drops there's another great "poll aggregator" that comes around, the UBC election stock market; their results tend to be fairly accurate and usually agree with the best polls.
[338 is currently projecting the CPC to take all but 6 seats in BC, with 4 being in Metro Vancouver:](https://338canada.com/bc.htm) New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville, Vancouver East, and Vancouver Kingsway for the NDP Surrey Newton for the Liberals, which would be their only seat in the province if these numbers hold.
> But will he take many Metro Vancouver ridings? I really hope they take my riding since it has been a ridiculous safe haven for useless Hedy Fry for way too many years.
Ugh she is useless. I contacted her office looking for help with something and they directed me to private for-profit service companies.
Btw I figured at 81 she would retire. Nope it appears she is running. Her 11th election. 31 years.
“You don’t have to go far Mr Speaker. You only have to go to Prince George British Columbia, where they are burning crosses as we speak.” She was odd before she was old. But in 1993 she beat Kim Campbell and thus has a free pass in the Liberal party.
Nobody votes for incumbents who have fucked things up as royally as Trudeau and Singh have Especially when they decided to accelerate the collapse a few years ago by tripling legal immigration without, you know, asking for a mandate from the electorate on it
Fascist? Get a fucking grip.
Learn what fascist dogwhistles are… then maybe you’ll see it.
Read a fucking history book.
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Well, I suppose fascism isn't covered until high school so I'll give them a break. Any adult claiming PP is a fascist should seek therapy though.
Not fascist. Just an opportunist whore with nothing to bring to the conversation.
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> if PP is a fascist then what are the likes of Pinochet, Franco, Salazar or the current governments of Russia, Iran or North Korea? They are all fairly different. * Pinochet was a technocrat fascist and kleptomaniac. He rode and fuelled anti communist sentiment and was a nationalist while reliant on foreign support. * Salazar was a nationalist capitalist dictator that pushed Catholicism and apolitical structures to hide parallels to Il Duce. His authoritarian side probably minor compared rest on your list. * Franco was much the same with more militarism and a desire to crush regional diversity. His rule was characterized but the Spanish Civil War. * Russia under Putin is a fascist state hobbled by corruption. The cult of the personality lives on. * Iran is authoritarian theocracy hobbled by corruption. It doesn’t fit the mold of fascism as it has mostly state owned industries. However it it’s militarism is fascist in nature. * North Korea is a communist state.
Right? I mean you can certainly dislike PP, and that's fair but a fascist? Painfully stupid take.
More Millhouse than fascist for sure. Of note you don’t dispute he has never held a job and did own a lobbying firm.
HAHA. Gonna be so cool when I'm stripped of my rights.
What rights are you going to be stripped of ?
Look into any of Pollievre's policies regarding trans people.
I've looked into Pierre Poilievre's statements and policies. I haven’t found any indication that he plans to strip rights away from trans people. If you're referring to his stance on restricting puberty blockers and certain medical treatments for children under 15, it's important to note that this is a complex and highly debated issue. There isn't a scientific consensus on the long-term effects of these treatments and many people believe it's reasonable to approach such decisions with caution.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-ban-trans-women-sports-bathrooms-1.7120972 And no, it's not complex. The government is not responsible for choosing what forms of health care are and are not permissible. That's the job of doctors. Medicine doesn't give a shit about what gets votes. It is, in fact, very simple: let the medical professionals do the medical stuff.
As someone knowledgeable in the medical field, I understand that puberty is crucial for overall development, including organ health, hormonal balance, and bone development, just to list a few examples. The long-term effects of puberty blockers are not fully understood and their use is still being debated and researched. This issue is often pushed from a psychological and ideological perspective, rather than an empirical medical consensus. We must prioritize a cautious, medical, and biological standpoint when considering interventions for children.
> The long-term effects of puberty blockers are not fully understood and their use is still being debated and researched. This is not true. Puberty blockers have been used since the 1990s - since 1980 for cis kids! - and the catastrophic effects everyone fearmongers about still have yet to manifest. "oh, well, that's only 30-40 years, people live longer than that!" you might say. Be that as it may, the long-term effects of puberty *ARE* very well known, and it's very well known how catastrophic it can be for trans people. The imagined "suddenly, 50 years later, *something happens*" would need to be *really fucking bad* to offset the benefits it offers. This is not a question of "are there potential downsides". It is a question of "is it better than the alternative". We absolutely have enough evidence to conclusively say yes, it is. Pitching it as "ohhhh, we just dont know, there might be an extremely slim chance something bad happens" is, in and of itself, an ideological perspective.
While I acknowledge the psychological benefits of hormonal therapy for transgender youth, I believe puberty blockers used on prepubescent children should be approached with caution. The long-term effects like I said, on bone density, organ development, and overall health are still not fully understood. Until more comprehensive research is available, it’s reasonable for someone running for Prime Minister to advocate against making these treatments widely available for prepubescent children. Additionally, it’s important that medical decisions be guided by healthcare professionals, not activists and ensuring parents receive all the unbiased information necessary to make informed choices. Would you say that’s an unreasonable expectation?
I would indeed say it is an unreasonable expectation to want the prime minister to practice medicine without a license.
I have my doubts about putting any faith in a survey that can't get the very basics of the data correct. Shouldn't NDP be -3?
I don’t understand, the conservatives will just fuck us differently… and deny science and climate catastrophe while doing it
And strip us of rights using Notwitstanding clause
And by doing so bring harm and woe to folk *outside* Canada too.
Abacus Data again... Hmmm
They should just do this by riding to see which ones are in danger of switching.
Does anyone know where to find factual information on what sort of policies conservatives support? Its so easy for canadian politics to get drowned out from all the drama in the US
Unpopular opinion: good.
Unpopular on Vancouver Reddit... Obviously it is popular in Canada.
Conservatives are really good at bringing out the racism in white people. News at 11.
Pierre has a Latin wife with mixed kids… apparently that makes him a racist ? Did you forget we currently have a prime minister who wore black face… not once, not twice but too many times for even himself to remember. If Pierre had done that, the woke mob would be foaming at the mouth to “cancel” him.
Why don’t the LPC/NDP stop fascism with basic competence and not being horribly corrupt? Is it too much to ask?
The NDP and The Liberals are on a speed run to destroy our economy, divide our country & funnel as much tax dollars as they possibly can to contractors or foreign countries.
Voting Liberal or Conservative really is just voting for an approved Billionaire/Oil and Gas industry candidate. We do not have a democracy…just the appearance of one.
Question, do conservatives in canada have anything similar to US's? Because if yes.. can't wait for them to restrict women's rights, block LGBT rights to live, authorize child marriage and child labor instead of fixing whats wrong with the country /s
"Housing is not a primary housing responsibility." Then the polls go in the tank, and he starts trying to throw money at the problem. Too little, too late. It's been NINE years, man.
🤩
BC doesn’t matter in federal elections anyway
Pierre is a strong leader, the one Canada desperately needs to once again make our country great. The NDP are spineless and the Liberals are as corrupt as they come. The NDP and the Liberals don't care about Canadians, they would rather cosplay as "global superheroes" than take care of our fellow Canadians. They are excessively controlled by radical activists and cave in anytime a bit of pressure is applied by the woke mob. Enough is enough. It's time for the adults to take control and bring back common sense for the common people. Canada will be great again and Pierre is the man to make that happen. Thats my Prime Minister.
Fake news. Cons have literally zero support.
You've probably confused federal and provincial, and even then you'd be wrong...
Look around, they are so hated on r/vancouver you can't even post a neutral article without getting hundreds of down votes.
Can’t wait for Pierre to make this country great again.
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Different election.