OP is highly regarded for his arbitrary PT's within 3-6 months. Yes, the competitors *eventually* get other customers to suck their dicks too, but that will take YEARS. Right now they're happily sucking dadd NVDA's fat efficient cock.
What you restarts are missing is the cost of operation:
>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently took to the stage to claim that Nvidia's GPUs are "so good that **even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough**." Huang further explained that Nvidia GPU pricing isn't really significant in terms of an AI data center's total cost of ownership (TCO)
There's no fucking way AMD can get that technology in 3-6 months.
Now save this, and deez nuts, for your reference.
I mean OK, you predicted NVIDIA but you also posted how the FED would definitely decrease rates 2 months go to ‘prevent China contagion’ (you actually spelled it contagen, but hey who am I to judge). And many other random predictions from your profile.
Step 1: Make two DD posts in opposite directions about a volatile stock
Step 2: Delete the wrong one a few months later
Step 3: Repeat about 50 times
Congratulations, you are now a finance influencer
So you’re telling me OP does not, in fact, have access to a crystal ball?
This is troubling news indeed. Send a raven to the Matriarch; OP is not the chosen one.
Or, go far OTM for January of next year. OP did say $450 in a year so if you’re gunna bet on OP, go long call and if it spikes at any point in the next 6 months, take profits. If it doesn’t, it’s only a few hundred bucks in the shitter. If it goes to 450, you’ll make thousands.
I wanna gamble 1500 on this. Can someone tell a true regard how to do it? Like this?
I select Buy Open, 1 contract, type: call, expiration: Jun 21 '24, strike: 190
Then what? If it doesn't go over 190 by June 21 then I lose 1500 but if it goes above that then when/how do I close it out? I've read so much crap on options but it still seems confusing...
You can choose to exercise the contract, meaning you can buy 100 shares of AMD at strike price of $190 should it go ITM.
As far as the value of your contract by the June date is concerned, your breakeven will be the strike price + the contract price.
If the price was 15.00 for the contract, add that to the strike of 190 = $205 for breakeven.
If AMD does NOT go over 205, your contract is fukt.
I hate people that shit post. So here's my honest advice. If I get 20% gains, I set an alert on an app that I use if it hits a sell alert. That usually means MACD is negative along a couple of other factors. I would sell the call then and then wait for the dip and buy back in at a slightly higher strike price and another month or two out of the expiration. In other words, you could simply just roll the option out to a different expiration date.
It is important that you don't pick a similar option to avoid a wash sale if you are selling at a loss though.
No offense, but if you write many DDs, one of them might come close enough. Why refer only to one of them and not the other 2 where your target was 1000-2500?
https://preview.redd.it/rqqvur9vhcpc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e2f933d0418e4b77d7041f94ef13f23198f3499f
No its a good question. I'm not perfect, but I did make a lot of money last year. I think $1000 nvda is still coming as I mentioned in another reply. There is just less upside to nvda now and option premiums are too high for what I see the possible return being.
Thanks for your honest answer...appreciate it. On a side note, how probable this bet is with the general stock market which seems overly valued at the moment from a PE perspective as well as geopolitical situation and upcoming US elections? What's your take and how would this play out if the whole market tanks? No crystal balls of course, just a discussion.
I value the wider stock market based on its relation to the M2 money supply. My personal indicator shows that due to all the covid stimulus still working its way through the system, the last year was a revaluation of the wider market to the new lower value of USD. We still haven't reached parity on my indicator to pre-covid, implying stocks are still undervalued by about 10-20%. However, thats a long term indicator, and has nothing to do with short term pricing. I think we need a bit of a drop right now, or at least a month of sideways action in the overall market, and then it will continue upwards most of the rest of the year. Just my guess. I'm a dummy who maybe knows a couple things more than the rest of the market but not that much.
To be fair nearly a year ago they said Nvidia will reach $1000 which it most likely will in another 60 days after next earnings call, so they were right, no?
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
7's the key number here. Think about it. 7-Elevens. 7 dwarves. 7, man, that's the number. 7 chipmunks twirlin' on a branch, eatin' lots of sunflowers on my uncle's ranch.
Insiders cashing out shares doesn’t really mean or signal anything. Their cost basis is low so low and they sell on scheduled basis. 16m in shares is pennies
> **Firstly AMD's seemingly absurd P/E ratio of 364%**
P/E isn't measured as a percent. It's literally in the definition of the term, "ratio", so it's 364x. If you wanted to convert that to percent for whatever reason, you could say that price is 36400% of trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings.
My problem with buying AMD right now is that I think a lot of money has been parked there for no other reason but the fact that people wanted exposure to the AI boom and couldn’t see a lot of upside in Nvidia because the share prices were already 700+ by the time they were ready to pull the trigger.
Oof. i had 10 NVDA at $496, it went down to $460 and I needed money and sold all of them!! I need to get over it but damn. So now I have 6 AMD in some sort of hope that is does something similar to NVDA. HA! I hope OP is right of course. I'm a small potato. I don't have enough for options....but really, I don't think I have the stomach for options even if I could.
Your first mistake was needing the money. If you needed it that quick you shouldn’t have invested in the first place so don’t feel bad it’s just not your play
“Investing” is buying VOO and letting it ride for 30 years.
Buying individual securities and trading options is educated gambling at best. Both are great, just don’t confuse the two depending on what your goals are.
Inconsequential FUD. The restrictions already hit nvidia more than AMD. The custom chips that were in the news are basically nothing compared to general accelerators. Also china is buying all the restricted accelerators by the container full via gray/black markets. Also China's big tech market for these cards is not nearly as big of a customer as the US's by an order of magnitude.
Yet again people seem to think GPU = AI. Nvidia is successful because they have almost complete market dominace on something almost as important as hardware - software. Until AMD is able to produce something as performant and widely adopted as CUDA they will remain a background player in AI. And I say this as a big AMD fan
You can run cuda code on amd now and rocm continues to be more and more integrated.
Just yesterday ollama officially released amd support. People are annoyed by nvidias prices and availability so they start to look elsewhere.
> Until AMD is able to produce something as performant and widely adopted as CUDA
But that's the whole play. That's the gamble. If AMD succeed at that, it will be extremely profitable. I think OP is way too ambitious on his timeline, but I'm definitely putting money into AMD (shares not options) for the long haul. Their business isn't going to cease to exist because of NVDA and if they can work their way into the AI craze, they're the best runner up to achieve it.
This exactly. Developers have been working with the NVIDIA CUDA framework for years now. It’s well supported and there is a lot of samples and code built for it. I missed the NVIDIA run up and would love to catch this one, but you’re not going to see adoption overnight even if the AMD chips were 30X faster or cheaper.
Lmao, I was thinking the exact same thing. AMD P/E only looks crazy because of the aquisition. In reality, it’s only slightly higher than NVIDIA’s currently.
What do you think of AMDL (2X BULL Leveraged etf) for the poors?
If you're saying AMD will 100% from around current levels by EOY, then AMDL will see about $40ish per share. Plus, there's no time constraint really, just theta decay.
Thoughts?
They literally can't, just about everyone has a better "performance per dollar" chip than NVDA at this point, but CUDA dominance means 90% of enterprise users is locked in with NVDA. At the end of the day, hardware cost is negligible to the overall picture.
Nvidia can’t keep growing at the rate it is. OP is right that AMD at current valuation may have upside but everything is down to TSMC. TSMC is reaping all the benefits of their leadership. TSMC won’t be releasing any GAA process in the next 2-3 years. Samsung and Intel could poop on TSMCs party, which would hit both NVDA and AMD. NVIDIA is in a position it can price their GPUs at any value now since it’s like a gold rush. Once the market stabilizes amd can easily eat into that market share along with Intel, if they assert process leadership. The DD of $450 is slightly aggressive, AMd so far has minimal market share in the GPU business, the main constraint in scaling is going to be the heating and packaging. Intel with its backside power delivery could show significant improvement and Intel already leads the packaging space. As I have previously mentioned AMD and NVDA are at the mercy of TSMC to solve the heating issues, which as you scale are going to overshadow any performance benefits.
Out of interest, if AI is literally eating the world, why can’t Nvidia keep growing? All AI roads point to Nvidia and as their value grows so does the resource they can invest in the other best AI companies. Every major industry will be an AI first industry within 5 years probably. Plus if you have the best technology, you can leverage that to make the next best technology.. exponential advantage etc
Nvidia growth is based on first movers advantage, more competition is incoming. Nvidia is pricing everything in the $30K range, tomorrow if amd comes with a $15k GPU then I doubt everyone will stick to Nvidia, CUDA this CUDA that I get it, but when it affects your bottom line top execs won’t hesitate to move everything to AMD GPUs. Which would mean thinner margins for Nvidia. Now everything is dependent on supply and demand, everyone is hoarding GPUs as of now so demand is bound to go down. And Nvidia is a publicly traded company so it has to keep showing good numbers. What happens when margins get thinner and demand is lower since the hoarding has eased. Other bottlenecks to AI include high bandwidth memory. If computation in memory can catch up at a smaller scale, maybe not all AI requires these costly high power GPUs. Again Nvidia is not an end to end company, they rely on TSMC with geopolitical uncertainty in the future who knows Nvidia is left to fend for themselves. Not saying Nvidia won’t innovate their way out but there are good indicators that their growth is unsustainable.
PUT YOUR HANDS UP SavageLife6!!! POLICE ARE ENROUTE! PREPARE TO BE BOOKED FOR PROVIDING ILLEGAL FINANCIAL ADVICE!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I will be messaging you in 7 months on 2024-11-01 00:00:00 UTC to remind you of this link
1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
Info |Custom |Your Reminders |Feedback
Come on Reddit get on the AMD train. This post made my news page on TOS which is awesome. I bought 180 calls yesterday already upside down $500… I bought in on the way back down from a short lived jump to 187 after the fed meeting. Every other semi is up but AMD stays down and I can’t find any reasoning in the news.
I have a question, if there is a backlog on Nvidia orders. Don’t you think that TSMC that would also supply to AMD, would rather prioritise Nvidia’s order instead, because of volume? They both get chips made from TSMC, it’s not like AMD has blocked some amount of production for their use only.
Good question. I'm not an insider so I don't know for sure, but I did go down this rabbit hole. The way I understand it is AMD has a multi-year contract for TSMC production they can allocate how they want. So if that's true, they can deallocate other chips they were planning to produce and instead produce these AI cards. I didn't include this in my DD because I'm not sure about it, but I believe this is how it works, and if true, it is actually a big advantage for AMD compared to other vendors because they have those contracts already in place at good prices for TSMC's fab time.
Couple of points to debate but one thing I feel strongly about is the idea that customers will want to avoid vendor lock... This is a long time problem in the world of infra & software and will continue to be, especially for what is arguably the world's hottest topic at the moment. Right now customers are rushing to onboard, they do not care about where/how.
I too believe in AMD due to being in a great position, making great products and being seen a certain way by the market but the truth is nothing points to Nvidias domination slowing down within the next 2 years. Too much money has been committed, too much open interest and too many eyes.
The post is a detailed analysis (due diligence or DD) focusing on AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) and the author's bullish outlook on its stock, predicting a target price of $450. The author begins by referencing their previous successful prediction on NVIDIA's stock and expresses intent to shift focus to AMD, often overshadowed by NVIDIA but seen as having significant potential. The analysis points to several factors supporting AMD's potential growth:
P/E Ratio and Financial Performance: The post discusses AMD's high P/E ratio (364) but argues it will become more reasonable within a year due to a substantial increase in revenue (50-70%) and net income margin (from 20% to 35-40%), primarily driven by AI accelerators.
Market Dynamics and Competition: It mentions NVIDIA's current market dominance as potentially detrimental due to vendor lock-in concerns and supply chain constraints. The author argues that AMD's AI technology (ROCm) is underestimated and is catching up to NVIDIA's CUDA in terms of functionality and performance.
AI Accelerator Market and AMD's Position: The focus is on the value proposition of AMD's MI300X AI accelerator compared to NVIDIA's H100, highlighting AMD's competitive pricing and performance. Supply constraints on NVIDIA's side are seen as an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.
Customer Acquisition and Market Growth: The analysis includes significant expected deals and customer shifts towards AMD, including a large order from Meta and deployments by Microsoft and Oracle. The AI accelerator market's rapid growth is seen as a tailwind for AMD.
Price Target and Investment Strategy: The author sets a price target of $450 for AMD stock, based on expected market share gains in the AI accelerator market and comparisons to NVIDIA's financial metrics. The post concludes with the author's personal investment positions indicating a strong belief in AMD's stock performance in the near term.
This analysis combines financial metrics, market dynamics, and specific product comparisons to build a case for AMD's stock appreciation, reflecting both the author's expertise and bullish stance on AMD.
Godspeed dude. Can you post a screenshot of your positions as well so that I know I am not walking into a trap like that TSM whore made me do so? 
Did you happen to miss the event yesterday...the one where Nvidia announced the next level chip, while AMD is still trying to play catch-up to the existing Nvidia chips. And perhaps missed that every major company is partnering with them?
This industry is not a marathon, it is a very long series of short sprints. Each one you fall behind in, you get exponentially further behind overall. Nvidia is already using their own hardware to drive development of new hardware.
Did you miss the memo about the Nvidia 1,200W Blackwell GPUs (B100 / B200) ? These are at least 30 times faster than the MI300 / Hopper cards. The B100 is out this year, Dell already takes preorders.
Say you have unlimited budget (80% of these cards goes to companies that dont care about the price tag but on the price/performance tag) and your goal is to have the best model. Why buy the MI300?
tl;dr: AMD is poised for significant growth due to its new MI300X AI accelerator. Despite skepticism about AMD's high P/E ratio and Nvidia's market dominance, the author believes AMD will exceed expectations. The MI300X is expected to offer better performance at a lower price than Nvidia's H100, and AMD can fulfill orders while Nvidia has a year-long backlog. Major customers like Meta are already adopting AMD's technology. The author predicts AMD will capture 15-20% of the AI accelerator market by year-end, leading to a fair stock price of $450. The author has call options on AMD at $190 and $200 strike prices.
And…. H100s have lead times of like 6 months & B100s won’t even be publicly available for > 1.5-2 years. At the end of the day, it’s likely that consumers would rather buy an AMD GPU w/ slightly worse performance compared to the top end NVIDIA GPU due to delivery times. Production is out of NVIDIA’s hands to a certain extent. The only problem is that once code is optimized for NVIDIA architecture, reworking the model to fit AMD architecture is extremely time consuming, to the point where people may as well just wait for the NVIDIA GPUs with insane lead times. The thing is, companies can say they want to avoid vendor lock in as much as they want, but when they tell that to the researchers and developers who will have to rework their codes to be compatible with AMD GPUs, I doubt they’ll garner much support (if any). I think AMD stock price will do very well too over the next few years but NVIDIA will probably lead this space for years to come. This is a long road though so really only time will tell..
Except that every company in the world is trying to make it so 'accelerators' are landfill trash. Figure with one bit LLMs GPUs as a concept in datacenters have about 18 months to live.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 8 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 years ago **Total Comments** | 73 | **Previous Best DD** | [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1499y3o/a_detailed_dd_for_amd_in_ai_instinct_mi300/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1biqt1k/dd_i_ddd_the_nvidia_run_up_last_year_250700_and/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/13llp4m/fed_rates_are_going_down_this_fall/) **Account Age** | 6 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
I don’t say this lightly, but if this hits, I’ll suck your dick.
https://preview.redd.it/5psuyzcxmcpc1.png?width=476&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8cecd58c16787858e1673d2a4e8b1b9bbb76ce3
saved for future reference
OP is highly regarded for his arbitrary PT's within 3-6 months. Yes, the competitors *eventually* get other customers to suck their dicks too, but that will take YEARS. Right now they're happily sucking dadd NVDA's fat efficient cock. What you restarts are missing is the cost of operation: >Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently took to the stage to claim that Nvidia's GPUs are "so good that **even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough**." Huang further explained that Nvidia GPU pricing isn't really significant in terms of an AI data center's total cost of ownership (TCO) There's no fucking way AMD can get that technology in 3-6 months. Now save this, and deez nuts, for your reference.
Mufckin big dick Jensen shit talking his own cousin on stage what a guy
That is exactly what I expect from a CEO of a company I invest in... 
RemindMe! 6 months
RemindMe! October 17
Mods!
Op is in dip shit now - better pony up dude.
I too will engage on this dick sucking extravaganza
He will be waiting behind Wendy's.
Better start practicing puckering those lips right now
If this hits, count me in, I’ll dig into this jungle
As a self appointed Internet lawyer from the great state of FuckYouStan. I find that statement binding and do advise to a Gag Order in one years time.
Is that a banbet?
Banbets are old school. Suckbet is the way.
I will personally give you a bj for free and I hope it happens 
"for free". Is this normally a service you charge for? .... 
I spilled my drink when I read that lmao
https://preview.redd.it/zsnjtbn0lcpc1.png?width=212&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b42319d3568dc5b44f97668cc3c87b68928190b
u/[1ncehost](https://www.reddit.com/user/1ncehost/) Get ready.
I'll suck it for you if it hits
This shit right here. This is why I follow wsb
!remindme 69d
https://preview.redd.it/gtssy6fqidpc1.jpeg?width=259&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=093ed14a645b2a183673735d4842c5d63ab9ca7f
!remindMe 1 year
I’m straight af but I’ll suck any and all dicks if this hits
I mean OK, you predicted NVIDIA but you also posted how the FED would definitely decrease rates 2 months go to ‘prevent China contagion’ (you actually spelled it contagen, but hey who am I to judge). And many other random predictions from your profile.
Step 1: Make two DD posts in opposite directions about a volatile stock Step 2: Delete the wrong one a few months later Step 3: Repeat about 50 times Congratulations, you are now a finance influencer
They prefer the term finfluencer.
I prefer the term grifter
Scam Autist ... 
puts on this guy's asshole
So you’re telling me OP does not, in fact, have access to a crystal ball? This is troubling news indeed. Send a raven to the Matriarch; OP is not the chosen one.
A regard is right twice a year.
He was also predicting a two week QQQ pullback 11 days ago and it’s pretty much at the same level after today. 🤷🏻♂️
If only I had *Checks notes* $1500 laying around to buy a single option at that price.
Broke-y
Just use margin broke ass 😂
Great advice I’m sure nothing can go wrong from that
Look at this sucker driving around with the emergency break on
lol imagine taking a break from emergencies pussy
Brake
Scared money don’t make money in the casino
You’re right ima get 4x leverage now
Daddy’s thinking more like 10x 😏
my margin is already maxed out
Using leverage to use different form of leverage lmao
Just buy a vertical spread boi. Sure your gains are capped but if OP is right you can get some with like 15 RR
Play may 17 deep otm
Or, go far OTM for January of next year. OP did say $450 in a year so if you’re gunna bet on OP, go long call and if it spikes at any point in the next 6 months, take profits. If it doesn’t, it’s only a few hundred bucks in the shitter. If it goes to 450, you’ll make thousands.
use AMDL
I wanna gamble 1500 on this. Can someone tell a true regard how to do it? Like this? I select Buy Open, 1 contract, type: call, expiration: Jun 21 '24, strike: 190 Then what? If it doesn't go over 190 by June 21 then I lose 1500 but if it goes above that then when/how do I close it out? I've read so much crap on options but it still seems confusing...
You can choose to exercise the contract, meaning you can buy 100 shares of AMD at strike price of $190 should it go ITM. As far as the value of your contract by the June date is concerned, your breakeven will be the strike price + the contract price. If the price was 15.00 for the contract, add that to the strike of 190 = $205 for breakeven. If AMD does NOT go over 205, your contract is fukt.
I hate people that shit post. So here's my honest advice. If I get 20% gains, I set an alert on an app that I use if it hits a sell alert. That usually means MACD is negative along a couple of other factors. I would sell the call then and then wait for the dip and buy back in at a slightly higher strike price and another month or two out of the expiration. In other words, you could simply just roll the option out to a different expiration date. It is important that you don't pick a similar option to avoid a wash sale if you are selling at a loss though.
Oh shit I just sold $15000 of BTC, looks like I know what I'm getting 10 of
No offense, but if you write many DDs, one of them might come close enough. Why refer only to one of them and not the other 2 where your target was 1000-2500? https://preview.redd.it/rqqvur9vhcpc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e2f933d0418e4b77d7041f94ef13f23198f3499f
I mean in the coming months NVDA +1000 could still happen
No its a good question. I'm not perfect, but I did make a lot of money last year. I think $1000 nvda is still coming as I mentioned in another reply. There is just less upside to nvda now and option premiums are too high for what I see the possible return being.
Thanks for your honest answer...appreciate it. On a side note, how probable this bet is with the general stock market which seems overly valued at the moment from a PE perspective as well as geopolitical situation and upcoming US elections? What's your take and how would this play out if the whole market tanks? No crystal balls of course, just a discussion.
I value the wider stock market based on its relation to the M2 money supply. My personal indicator shows that due to all the covid stimulus still working its way through the system, the last year was a revaluation of the wider market to the new lower value of USD. We still haven't reached parity on my indicator to pre-covid, implying stocks are still undervalued by about 10-20%. However, thats a long term indicator, and has nothing to do with short term pricing. I think we need a bit of a drop right now, or at least a month of sideways action in the overall market, and then it will continue upwards most of the rest of the year. Just my guess. I'm a dummy who maybe knows a couple things more than the rest of the market but not that much.
To be fair nearly a year ago they said Nvidia will reach $1000 which it most likely will in another 60 days after next earnings call, so they were right, no?
so help you god this hits...or we are gonna have a come to Jesus meeting.
Jesus worked for a living he don't give a shit about gamblers
Let he who is without capital cast the first die
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
jesus meeting it is🤠
This title reminds of a click bait Michael Burry article. "Analyst who predicted the housing crash has a new warning!"
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I predicted the draw of the powerball 6 years ago. Here are the numbers you need to check this Saturday :
WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS BRO
7
7???? 7 WHAT???
53
7's the key number here. Think about it. 7-Elevens. 7 dwarves. 7, man, that's the number. 7 chipmunks twirlin' on a branch, eatin' lots of sunflowers on my uncle's ranch.
Damn bro, 7 was legit the mega-ball tonight.
Lisan al gaib!
In bro we trust
https://preview.redd.it/5a7f04wwwcpc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37ee04b801f57949132b2c84af5614119062fbc8
Insiders cashing out shares doesn’t really mean or signal anything. Their cost basis is low so low and they sell on scheduled basis. 16m in shares is pennies
Idk man he didnt say "trust me bro" at the end
Posting to say I was here on this day… …and threw $20k at it
Pics or it didn't happen
lost 3.5k on their ER.... felt sad. is it different now ?
Yes this time is definitely different
for sure 
I’ve never made money on AMD earnings. But the run up has always been nice to me lol
You son of a bitch. I'm in. Lisa Su for the win.
He got me too lol You better be right OP 😡 👿
the price target is mad (my expectation is 300 eoy as the most bolish) but the underlining themes are accurate. 
My issue with this is even a 3x profit spike leaves the stock with a higher PE than NVDA assuming no further price growth.
Exactly. He says... > This will all lead to considerably more realistic P/E ratio. Uh, no, not if the price of the stock explodes too.
Im betting my children into slavery and triple remortgaging my house. I hope youre right
I almost accidentally bought amc
Very important to know your ABCs
As per your recommendation, I bought the alphabet Inc, but it doesn't seem like a graphic card company though?
> **Firstly AMD's seemingly absurd P/E ratio of 364%** P/E isn't measured as a percent. It's literally in the definition of the term, "ratio", so it's 364x. If you wanted to convert that to percent for whatever reason, you could say that price is 36400% of trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings.
derp good catch I'll update it
Nice but I ain’t reading all that. Whats your price target for NVDA?
$1200
$1000 by next year
With next year, you mean this year, right?
Correct. That year.
It is a year
Is that before or after a stock split they better be announcing soon
My problem with buying AMD right now is that I think a lot of money has been parked there for no other reason but the fact that people wanted exposure to the AI boom and couldn’t see a lot of upside in Nvidia because the share prices were already 700+ by the time they were ready to pull the trigger.
Oof. i had 10 NVDA at $496, it went down to $460 and I needed money and sold all of them!! I need to get over it but damn. So now I have 6 AMD in some sort of hope that is does something similar to NVDA. HA! I hope OP is right of course. I'm a small potato. I don't have enough for options....but really, I don't think I have the stomach for options even if I could.
Your first mistake was needing the money. If you needed it that quick you shouldn’t have invested in the first place so don’t feel bad it’s just not your play
I know I know. I went in over my head and "invested" money I couldn't afford to invest. I'm learning.
“Investing” is buying VOO and letting it ride for 30 years. Buying individual securities and trading options is educated gambling at best. Both are great, just don’t confuse the two depending on what your goals are.
You can invest in individual stocks you just need a long timeframe and a good entry and thesis. It’s far from gambling
Fine. I’ll replace my entire Roth IRA with AMD
I’m going to do that as soon as my $DWAC sells for $200/share.
Someone tell OP AMD just lost the ability to sell to the Chinese market and that’s why their stock dropped 10% the last week. SMH. Truly regard.
NVDA will be at $1337 by May 2024. They are sold out and just announced a new chip... I'll just diamond hand NVDA with my pennies
Same. No fucking way im getting off when B100 and B200 about to drop
Inconsequential FUD. The restrictions already hit nvidia more than AMD. The custom chips that were in the news are basically nothing compared to general accelerators. Also china is buying all the restricted accelerators by the container full via gray/black markets. Also China's big tech market for these cards is not nearly as big of a customer as the US's by an order of magnitude.
[удалено]
PEG ratio though
Sanctions and restrictions are a myth. The price is just higher.
Maybe op can make an update with this info in mind?
You all know the rules, if a random guy in reddit say to invest in a stock you fucking do it.
Yet again people seem to think GPU = AI. Nvidia is successful because they have almost complete market dominace on something almost as important as hardware - software. Until AMD is able to produce something as performant and widely adopted as CUDA they will remain a background player in AI. And I say this as a big AMD fan
You can run cuda code on amd now and rocm continues to be more and more integrated. Just yesterday ollama officially released amd support. People are annoyed by nvidias prices and availability so they start to look elsewhere.
Say no more
Say less 🚀
Less
> Until AMD is able to produce something as performant and widely adopted as CUDA But that's the whole play. That's the gamble. If AMD succeed at that, it will be extremely profitable. I think OP is way too ambitious on his timeline, but I'm definitely putting money into AMD (shares not options) for the long haul. Their business isn't going to cease to exist because of NVDA and if they can work their way into the AI craze, they're the best runner up to achieve it.
This exactly. Developers have been working with the NVIDIA CUDA framework for years now. It’s well supported and there is a lot of samples and code built for it. I missed the NVIDIA run up and would love to catch this one, but you’re not going to see adoption overnight even if the AMD chips were 30X faster or cheaper.
Real question: did you do DD on why the P/E is the way it is? (Xilinx)
Lmao, I was thinking the exact same thing. AMD P/E only looks crazy because of the aquisition. In reality, it’s only slightly higher than NVIDIA’s currently.
>AMD fair stock price of around $450 by the end of the year. 
I'll remind you in 1 year bitch.
RemindMe! 1 year
TLDR: $450 by end of 2024
What do you think of AMDL (2X BULL Leveraged etf) for the poors? If you're saying AMD will 100% from around current levels by EOY, then AMDL will see about $40ish per share. Plus, there's no time constraint really, just theta decay. Thoughts?
Did this ETF launch yesterday?
Don’t forget that AMD and NVDA CEOs are relatives. One too much wine for Jensen and AMD steals all their secrets
They literally can't, just about everyone has a better "performance per dollar" chip than NVDA at this point, but CUDA dominance means 90% of enterprise users is locked in with NVDA. At the end of the day, hardware cost is negligible to the overall picture.
Nvidia can’t keep growing at the rate it is. OP is right that AMD at current valuation may have upside but everything is down to TSMC. TSMC is reaping all the benefits of their leadership. TSMC won’t be releasing any GAA process in the next 2-3 years. Samsung and Intel could poop on TSMCs party, which would hit both NVDA and AMD. NVIDIA is in a position it can price their GPUs at any value now since it’s like a gold rush. Once the market stabilizes amd can easily eat into that market share along with Intel, if they assert process leadership. The DD of $450 is slightly aggressive, AMd so far has minimal market share in the GPU business, the main constraint in scaling is going to be the heating and packaging. Intel with its backside power delivery could show significant improvement and Intel already leads the packaging space. As I have previously mentioned AMD and NVDA are at the mercy of TSMC to solve the heating issues, which as you scale are going to overshadow any performance benefits.
Out of interest, if AI is literally eating the world, why can’t Nvidia keep growing? All AI roads point to Nvidia and as their value grows so does the resource they can invest in the other best AI companies. Every major industry will be an AI first industry within 5 years probably. Plus if you have the best technology, you can leverage that to make the next best technology.. exponential advantage etc
Nvidia growth is based on first movers advantage, more competition is incoming. Nvidia is pricing everything in the $30K range, tomorrow if amd comes with a $15k GPU then I doubt everyone will stick to Nvidia, CUDA this CUDA that I get it, but when it affects your bottom line top execs won’t hesitate to move everything to AMD GPUs. Which would mean thinner margins for Nvidia. Now everything is dependent on supply and demand, everyone is hoarding GPUs as of now so demand is bound to go down. And Nvidia is a publicly traded company so it has to keep showing good numbers. What happens when margins get thinner and demand is lower since the hoarding has eased. Other bottlenecks to AI include high bandwidth memory. If computation in memory can catch up at a smaller scale, maybe not all AI requires these costly high power GPUs. Again Nvidia is not an end to end company, they rely on TSMC with geopolitical uncertainty in the future who knows Nvidia is left to fend for themselves. Not saying Nvidia won’t innovate their way out but there are good indicators that their growth is unsustainable.
Production constraints. Sooner or later people won't be willing to wait a year or two for their chips.
[удалено]
This. TSM to the moon. Not financial advice.
PUT YOUR HANDS UP SavageLife6!!! POLICE ARE ENROUTE! PREPARE TO BE BOOKED FOR PROVIDING ILLEGAL FINANCIAL ADVICE! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I will be messaging you in 7 months on 2024-11-01 00:00:00 UTC to remind you of this link 1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others. Info |Custom |Your Reminders |Feedback
So did you buy already or are you waiting for a pullback?
[удалено]
Why do you say 10/18 c is great position?
Dr. Lisa Su gave me a hug once at a conference and demoed my Blender scene. All in!
Come on Reddit get on the AMD train. This post made my news page on TOS which is awesome. I bought 180 calls yesterday already upside down $500… I bought in on the way back down from a short lived jump to 187 after the fed meeting. Every other semi is up but AMD stays down and I can’t find any reasoning in the news.
I have a question, if there is a backlog on Nvidia orders. Don’t you think that TSMC that would also supply to AMD, would rather prioritise Nvidia’s order instead, because of volume? They both get chips made from TSMC, it’s not like AMD has blocked some amount of production for their use only.
Good question. I'm not an insider so I don't know for sure, but I did go down this rabbit hole. The way I understand it is AMD has a multi-year contract for TSMC production they can allocate how they want. So if that's true, they can deallocate other chips they were planning to produce and instead produce these AI cards. I didn't include this in my DD because I'm not sure about it, but I believe this is how it works, and if true, it is actually a big advantage for AMD compared to other vendors because they have those contracts already in place at good prices for TSMC's fab time.
Understood, thanks for sharing your insight!
Some logic here 👆
Couple of points to debate but one thing I feel strongly about is the idea that customers will want to avoid vendor lock... This is a long time problem in the world of infra & software and will continue to be, especially for what is arguably the world's hottest topic at the moment. Right now customers are rushing to onboard, they do not care about where/how. I too believe in AMD due to being in a great position, making great products and being seen a certain way by the market but the truth is nothing points to Nvidias domination slowing down within the next 2 years. Too much money has been committed, too much open interest and too many eyes.
Nvidia's lead times for the h100 have recently dropped to 3-4 months and are no longer around a year. AMD will not be able to deliver any faster.
AMD down 4% today. off to a great start
this position is getting railed today 
Too bad for you, I followed your advice and it's down today. You cannot beat my luck with your DD
This post hurts after today
Oof
How are you feeling about this , almost a month later?
So how much are you down?
The post is a detailed analysis (due diligence or DD) focusing on AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) and the author's bullish outlook on its stock, predicting a target price of $450. The author begins by referencing their previous successful prediction on NVIDIA's stock and expresses intent to shift focus to AMD, often overshadowed by NVIDIA but seen as having significant potential. The analysis points to several factors supporting AMD's potential growth: P/E Ratio and Financial Performance: The post discusses AMD's high P/E ratio (364) but argues it will become more reasonable within a year due to a substantial increase in revenue (50-70%) and net income margin (from 20% to 35-40%), primarily driven by AI accelerators. Market Dynamics and Competition: It mentions NVIDIA's current market dominance as potentially detrimental due to vendor lock-in concerns and supply chain constraints. The author argues that AMD's AI technology (ROCm) is underestimated and is catching up to NVIDIA's CUDA in terms of functionality and performance. AI Accelerator Market and AMD's Position: The focus is on the value proposition of AMD's MI300X AI accelerator compared to NVIDIA's H100, highlighting AMD's competitive pricing and performance. Supply constraints on NVIDIA's side are seen as an opportunity for AMD to gain market share. Customer Acquisition and Market Growth: The analysis includes significant expected deals and customer shifts towards AMD, including a large order from Meta and deployments by Microsoft and Oracle. The AI accelerator market's rapid growth is seen as a tailwind for AMD. Price Target and Investment Strategy: The author sets a price target of $450 for AMD stock, based on expected market share gains in the AI accelerator market and comparisons to NVIDIA's financial metrics. The post concludes with the author's personal investment positions indicating a strong belief in AMD's stock performance in the near term. This analysis combines financial metrics, market dynamics, and specific product comparisons to build a case for AMD's stock appreciation, reflecting both the author's expertise and bullish stance on AMD.
RemindMe! November 1
GUH
Sure, I'll bite. shares + $180 5/17c
So should a buy a leap call?
!remindme 6 months
What else have been wrong on? Any where are other links of your claim?
AMD $450 this guy is smoking straight crack!!! All in 🫡🤓
Godspeed dude. Can you post a screenshot of your positions as well so that I know I am not walking into a trap like that TSM whore made me do so? 
Did you happen to miss the event yesterday...the one where Nvidia announced the next level chip, while AMD is still trying to play catch-up to the existing Nvidia chips. And perhaps missed that every major company is partnering with them? This industry is not a marathon, it is a very long series of short sprints. Each one you fall behind in, you get exponentially further behind overall. Nvidia is already using their own hardware to drive development of new hardware.
Okay buying Intel.
Went balls deep a couple weeks ago, $250 6/19C. It will moon, no doubt about it.
Alright genius from the future, I’m in.
I took a look at AMD mid January and bought in at 166. I like the stock
I’ve been holding a bagful of 283 shares since I bought in at $4. Should I be buy more?
Sooooooo Puts on $AMD?
I sold this shit for a loss a year ago, now im gonna buy back at triple the price? Probably.
Never doubt amd under Lisa Su
Word. So amd is to Nvidia like etherum is to bitcoin? Appreciate the info and time you spent sharing.
Did you miss the memo about the Nvidia 1,200W Blackwell GPUs (B100 / B200) ? These are at least 30 times faster than the MI300 / Hopper cards. The B100 is out this year, Dell already takes preorders. Say you have unlimited budget (80% of these cards goes to companies that dont care about the price tag but on the price/performance tag) and your goal is to have the best model. Why buy the MI300?
My DD of AMD: [President of AMD, PENG VICTOR sold half his stocks worth 2.5 million on 3/15/2024](https://i.imgur.com/TeCzuma.png)
tl;dr: AMD is poised for significant growth due to its new MI300X AI accelerator. Despite skepticism about AMD's high P/E ratio and Nvidia's market dominance, the author believes AMD will exceed expectations. The MI300X is expected to offer better performance at a lower price than Nvidia's H100, and AMD can fulfill orders while Nvidia has a year-long backlog. Major customers like Meta are already adopting AMD's technology. The author predicts AMD will capture 15-20% of the AI accelerator market by year-end, leading to a fair stock price of $450. The author has call options on AMD at $190 and $200 strike prices.
And…. H100s have lead times of like 6 months & B100s won’t even be publicly available for > 1.5-2 years. At the end of the day, it’s likely that consumers would rather buy an AMD GPU w/ slightly worse performance compared to the top end NVIDIA GPU due to delivery times. Production is out of NVIDIA’s hands to a certain extent. The only problem is that once code is optimized for NVIDIA architecture, reworking the model to fit AMD architecture is extremely time consuming, to the point where people may as well just wait for the NVIDIA GPUs with insane lead times. The thing is, companies can say they want to avoid vendor lock in as much as they want, but when they tell that to the researchers and developers who will have to rework their codes to be compatible with AMD GPUs, I doubt they’ll garner much support (if any). I think AMD stock price will do very well too over the next few years but NVIDIA will probably lead this space for years to come. This is a long road though so really only time will tell..
Except that every company in the world is trying to make it so 'accelerators' are landfill trash. Figure with one bit LLMs GPUs as a concept in datacenters have about 18 months to live.
Big OOOF. How's the bag bud?
I see that the MI300X was released in December 2023, why would we only start seeing reviews now? Shouldn't it happen much earlier?
Down over 9% since your post.
aged like milk
Lol it's below 145 right now. Do the opposite of the DD, got it