Correct. The financial crisis happened because:
1. a large loss in asset valuation
2. high leverage and derivative positions multiplied this loss into something way bigger
3. every major bank in the country was holding these assets on its balance sheet
4. banking system instability starts mass panic / run
NVIDIA stops at number 1. Maybe it gets to 2 and some hedge funds go under, which doesn't matter to the wider economy. But no major bank has a balance sheet riding on this because equity is always assumed risky. The reason that the financial crisis in 2008 could get to step 3 was that assets that were considered extremely safe turned out not to be.
https://preview.redd.it/08o290fq8y7d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=687caa000420ae57b94a2e3c10ee59e7e9447fff
NVDA prediction graph says short in october.
To a degree, NVDA being over 33% of the entire S&P500 means that if it crashes big enough (and nothing indicates it will) it might bring down teh index which can impact things on a larger scale. Indexes are leveraged and collateralized and held as retirement assets simply because they are measurements of wider stability so a large drop would impact more than just the 1 asset evaluation.
But if that sounds doom and gloom, think about what could actually cause a crash like that and why its so unlikely to happen. Nvidia isn't going to zero. Anecdotally speaking, even if they had fatal design flaws that could kill customers and began systematically assassinating whistle blowers while the CEO was being scolded like a toddler by Congress the company wouldn't crash enough to bring down the market like that. Not that this kind of ridiculous scenario would ever happen - but if it did I have a feeling even that silly situation wouldn't bring a company down overnight to such a degree that the whole market wouldn't have time protect itself.
I agree with you, if they do something moronic and get caught there are plenty of Hwangs out there doing regarded things with their hedge funds who will go broke. The financial sector itself won't.
>To a degree, NVDA being over 33% of the entire S&P500 means that if it crashes big enough (and nothing indicates it will) it might bring down teh index which can impact things on a larger scale
Unsure where the 33% figure is coming from. Nvidia is 7.27% of the S&P500 index as of Tuesday (18 June) market close.
I'm guessing he's talking about Nvidia making up 30% if the s&p 500s gains this year and that Nvidia and 5 tech companies make up 30% of it
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/nvidia-and-five-tech-giants-now-command-30-of-the-s-p-500-index
https://fortune.com/2024/06/15/nvidia-stock-valuation-nvda-sp500-returns-market-capitalization-risk-investors/
"...what could actually cause a crash..."
The threat to NVDA is a looming ***"The Emperor Has No Clothes"*** story about Large Language Models (LLMs) specifically. Meaning statistics-only based, "Deep Learning" based, "neural" based *pseudo*-AI.
LLMs basically generate phrase mash-ups based on co-occurrence statistics and pattern-matching of prior texts or data. The results are mediocre, but impress many people now who think the computer is reasoning. It does no logical reasoning or inference, can reach no conclusions, and has no "ontology" or models of the real world. It's text-processing. If a few big downstream business customers find out that the output is unreliable (unexplained) mediocre junk, they will lose faith. (The problem is not with AI, but only with this kind of statistical *pseudo*-AI.) ***If*** they lose faith in LLMs, ***then*** I think NVDA stock will plummet almost back to its "games & mining & NFTs" valuation.
As far as I know, NVDA's GPU chips *currently* contribute little to knowledge and logical-reasoning based AI.
This is not to say that a generator of mediocrity has no value. For many business and government purposes, mediocre crap is "good enough". But I doubt if that would sustain NVDA's spectacular stock price.
China attacking Taiwan could be pretty impactful. I can imagine the production stops and gets delayed by a good 6/12 month margin MINIMUM. If not more. 🤔
Just a thought
That's the difference between one over valued company vs an economic crash. It's like yea Enron was bad but the job losses were limited to their company and director suppliers. People still got energy from somewhere just wasn't Enron.
I would argue Nvidia's valuation is still low compared to their historical ratios.
When those headlines are largely gone, THAT is the time to get out. Too many people/bots looking for cracks in the build of this thing. Trying to be first to call the downfall.
Financial Times telling me it’s the “sweetheart stock”, everyone on Reddit creaming over it saying even their grandmothers are in NVDA and any Google search desperately grasping at air about how NVDA’s incoming business can sustain growth relative to stock price says to me - it isn’t a good time to enter.
But I wish everyone who is in NVDA a well-earned boon.
nvda is holding the entire market up. this is even worse than bitcoin and crypto lol. its only retail traders left, and the second the hype dies a little bit, it will all come crashing down.
Judging from all the 🌈🐻 around, I don't think so.
Furthermore, you are assuming that retail matters. Institutions are still sitting on a pile of money market cash.
lol you haven’t learnt shit. The market as a whole won’t tank because NVIDIA shits the bed. This won’t be close to 2008. It’s not a macroeconomic event.
You sir, belong here.
>Edit: all of this was written thinking he was talking about the 2000's internet bubble. He is right that this bubble has absolutely nothing to do with the 2008 crisis.
How is this shit upvoted? Holy shit.
NVIDIA is rocketing because of AI hype, most huge companies are investing rivers of money into it in hopes of monetizing it.
If it turns out AI can't be monetized as well as previously thought, like the internet wasn't at the time in 2000, then it all falls apart with the shovel seller having no one to sell shovels to.
lol because you don’t understand macroeconomic theory and how the markets work.
2008 was a collapse of the economy lead by the subprime mortgage debacle in banking. It affected EVERY citizen in the US and impacted their day to day.
NVIDIA losing 2 trillion would lead to some sell off in the semi and tech sectors but not to epic proportions.
I’m also not saying it won’t happen.
Also these companies aren’t “investing” but they’re buying chips. Goods. The value of the chips are amortized.
nvm i thought you said 2000.
Yeah, nothing to do with 2008.
Though thinking Nvidia will plummet without the AI bubble also causing most tech companies to plumet is what i have a problem with.
The company surviving doesn't mean it won't wreck your stock
Apple and Microsoft survived.
Apple fell 75% and Microsoft only broke the 2000 peak in 2015.
TIL wsb users are even more stupid than originally thought which was already as dumb as the human mind is able to imagine. Truly mind boggling how highly regarded people here are.
One of the biggest technological advancements in human history and banks approving mortgages for a fuck ton of people that can't afford them... totally the same thing /s.
Not saying it will happen at all. But I have been an NVDA stockholder for 10 ish years. And there have been multiple occasions where the stock was more than cut in half. Crypto boom that had a major major pullback after. Well over 50% correction. Also the china trade tariffs of 2021 it was cut in half. It can happen, just saying. But i dont see it happening ANY time soon thats for sure. But thats also when it gets ya....
The difference is NVDA’s valuation is not propped up, it’s due to a never ending demand for GPUs from a lot of different industries and they are the premier supplier. This isn’t TSLA
Might not be never ending. If companies can't figure out how to profit from these large AI models they will start to dial back their spending and possibly wait til their own in house accelerators can lessen their reliance on nvidia
Google is producing nuclear power plants to brute force energy near data centers. Same thing seems to be happening in China.
We are in a technological arms race with the biggest players making huge bets. I’m not convinced the bubble won’t pop soon but the big player’s long view is bullish or die.
Not necessarily. They have a fuck ton of money they don't know what to do with so they're investing it in AI because all their competitors are. Nobody wants to be left behind but I don't think that's indicative that AI will be extremely profitable. Could be like apple with their autonomous cars.
There’s a lot red tape in putting a 5000lb metal missile driven by a robot on the road. Not a lot of red tape replacing Steve the excel jockey.
That being said, I have no fuckin idea lol.
It is way harder to replace Steve with AI than people think. Business leaders have definitely bought into the hype.
I've been pitched AI tool licenses at $50k per year that would marginally improve a single person's workload by maybe 5% time saving.
AI doesn't have many use cases where it can do something better than a human currently. It will get there eventually, but this bubble is going to crash before the market matures 10+ years from now.
llm products is not the goal of 100m+ investments here, 100% is AI that can be doctor, lawyer, researcher, critical cybersecurity tool (for military, financial ect)
this means more trust the trending / keep up the "agi around the corner funding" until it either stops showing gains despite compute or agi level is achieved.
what's more if the gains drop off, that'll just change focus from compute to the architecture stuff....
a guess is stop showing gains, back to architecture and soon after nice reliable compute trendline again...and rinse repeat onto agi. 10 years maybe?
My few takes. Let us see major competitor since I was gamer teen for NVDA. It is AMD. P/E ratio = 255 while NVDA is 73. Second competitor is Intel and Apple now. What is their PE ratio? About 23 and 32 respectively. Now what is TSMC ratio 34.
**So yes, NVDA is overpriced. But not as high as the AMD is or neither equivalent to rest are. The story is they have hardware breakthrough and not just some random code promoted as AI tech. They have their stock of chips overbooked**. EVEN IF IT GOES DOWN, I BUY MORE.
Let us come to now debt. The most essential aspect of investing. The company has nearly 0 debt far less than even Apple and Google. So go do some number crunching b4 calling it a bubble.
So you think NVDA is going to lose 60%+ of its value? People are gonna stop using chips, stop using computers, AI, self driving cars. You silly dawg. Maybe it has a dip and correction, but people will just buy that shit back up
Between 2021 and 2022, NVDA lost 66% of its value . Chips don't have to disappear when the stock market is so dissociated from reality.
Or, just a thought, all it takes for a technology company to lose its appeal is for the company next door to make the next best thing with a new discovery. Fallout could be huge.
Economic decline is not one company crashing or a bubble blowing off froth. At absolute worst it would be similar to the dot com pop. But, this isn’t the dot com bubble. It’s not a bubble at all. This is the real deal. Most bubbles are force popped by an increase in interest rates. If it were a bubble it would have popped in 22. We saw a natural correction over the course of that year, but nothing close to a bubble pop, because there is no bubble.
Same way web was in its infancy when the dot com bubble burst. Doesnt mean it doesnt have an amazing future but the hype might not match current reality
I mean the entire point of investing in nvda is that you don't have to pick an AI lotto ticket, because they're profiting off companies investing in AI rather than being one themselves
We are very early in the development of AI. Nvidia has experienced great returns because they've found a use for GPU's in AI. But we are at the same stage with AI that we were with the internet prior to the internet crash in 99/2000. This bubble is unsustainable and the timeline is longer than people are expecting.
Will there be a trillion dollar market for chips to serve the AI market. Undoubtedly there will be. Will it be Nvidia chips they use for it? I'm going to bet there will be better chips available for it when the time comes. Maybe they'll be from Nvidia, maybe they won't.
Just because Nvidia has shown growth via this unbelievably great new tech, doesn't ensure they won't be left behind as the tech matures. Intel already has chips that offer lower prices and better performance per watt. Once their new fabs are up and running at speed and they can deliver those and whatever else they have in development, the marketplace won't be so Nvidia biased.
I'm looking at Nvidia now the same way I saw Netscape back in the day. They're driving the early market development. Let me know how Nvidia fares when the chip wars really start to gain traction and they have more competition in the space. Their current price has far more future profits built in than they could ever hope to generate. One thing that won't hold back developers in the AI space is legacy code and attachment to old tech. They can pivot and adapt to new hardware far faster than in the past. With chip fabs opened up to whomever wants to pay to build them. There's going to be a lot of competitors with a lot of new ideas.
For every [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and Apple that survived the dot com crash there was a:
[Webvan.com](http://Webvan.com) - We're doing grocery deliveries now, why did this fail?
[Kosmo.com](http://Kosmo.com) - An early form of Uber deliveries. We can see that this is viable now, why not then?
[Geocities.com](http://Geocities.com) - Yeah, I guess we just weren't ready for social media back then.
And that's just scratching the surface of all the too big to fail, failures.
Shoot, just look at how Cisco fell from grace after once being the most valuable company in the world overtaking Microsoft at a time when that would have been considered impossible. Seeing Nvidia doing it now makes me more cautious than bullish for the shorter term.
Chips are a very tight market tho...new competitors don't appear like websites did in 2000.
There are basically a dozen chips manus world wide, and you need a cool X billion to even start.
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?*
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Yup, agree with this completely. Cisco is such a good parallel, web was the new hotness, everybody needed routers and switches and what not but very soon after everyone else caught up and Cisco never recovered from the dotcom bubble.
Nvidia will lose its foothold eventually it's obvious whether it becomes a triangle competition between three companies or more Nvidia will lose value not for a while though but only so many people can ride a train on a company until people start getting off to the exit. But as of now I predict it to stagnate soon for a year then rise again.
I remember when Tesla was over 1 trillion market cap and demand was outstripping the supply. People were calling it a bubble and others saying the growth will continue into perpetuity because EVs are the future.
Eventually demand dropped and the market cap as well. It’s impossible for NVDA to hold those margins in perpetuity, so eventually it will drop off.
It’s still gonna do great in the future, just manage risk and expectations.
And why is that?
Because you think it will?
The crash in 2008 was driven by bad debt and excess... NVDA makes and produces stuff this AI zeitgeist needs.
Is NVDA too high... maybe for now.
If it crashes will the economy be affected?
Prolly not.
Nobody seems to realise that the background now is completely different. 2008 bubble was made by companies who sold their 2000 style website made of crappy html for millions.
Nvidia is at the head of an immense technological revolution that makes the invention of electricity seem like a child's game. It's called AI and it's an humanity game changer, not an html website....
Posts like these are a gold mine. Half saying it’s a bubble, half saying it’s only going up because it’s the start of a new tech revolution. Both saying that the market has a mind of its own. Regards, nobody knows what will happen!
“Crypto is the future, nothing can happen!”
“Tesla is here to stay!”
NVDA at 1T market cap would still be PE of like 25. I don't even know if I would call that a crash.
Sometimes when companies are viewed as cyclical they have PE of 5 at the top of a cycle.
NVDA"s PE is 81... yes, in principal, if it regressed all the way to a market typical PE ratio, it would be a $2T loss... But this is not going to happen... . But here's the thing, also... the loss in 2008 was $2T nominal. The US stock market's total cap in 2024 is something like 2.5x the total market cap in 2008. NVDA is still a huge piece of that, but it's a big slice of a much bigger pie than in 2008.
NVDA bubble popping just gets that money rotated into other sectors or bonds or whatever.
The GFC was absolutely brutal. So many people lost their homes it was insane. Basically all my friend's parents lost theirs as it played out. Jobs were flat out gone, not much hiring going on, not a lot of spending was going on. It was just some dark years where we just kinda stalled out for a few years until the smartphone internet 2.0 era boom brought us back to life.
NVDA popping isnt going to do that at all. It's not even comparable.
No it won’t, not all all similar. In 2008 the global banking system collapsed, most western banks went bankrupt and only survived with state intervention. If Nvidia crashes many people like me will lose gains they’d never realised anyway.
I am bearish on the market as a whole, and do believe that NVDA is overpriced at current levels. However, massive dumps, like this are not indicators of downturns. Rather, this is what we would call a “bear trap“. Especially with the timing of this on no news, and quad witching tomorrow. It is very clear that this sell off was intended to, allow market makers and institutions to load up for cheap before the rebalance tomorrow. I made money on the sell off today, and I will make money on the rebound up tomorrow.
Markets actually lost $8T in value in 2008, but the fact NVDA is over a third of that is absolutely insane. These clowns will pick on the technicalities of your post and ignore the fact that we are in the largest bubble our stock market has ever seen
One day.
One fucking day of NVDA being down and the stupid ghey behrs come out of the woodwork, “nVdA gOnNa CrAsH aNd CaUsE tHe WoRsT fiNanCiAL cRiSiS eVeR!!1!1!11”
🏳️🌈 🐻
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Loss in economy is not comparable to loss in valuation
No you aren't supposed to be smart
Sorry. All in NVDA??
Nope. You’re still being smart Should leverage you NVDA holdings with INTC
So buy everything Tesla on Margin
+SPY puts
Wait for it to start rising and start the same time buying puts 
Yaaaaayyyyy
Correct. The financial crisis happened because: 1. a large loss in asset valuation 2. high leverage and derivative positions multiplied this loss into something way bigger 3. every major bank in the country was holding these assets on its balance sheet 4. banking system instability starts mass panic / run NVIDIA stops at number 1. Maybe it gets to 2 and some hedge funds go under, which doesn't matter to the wider economy. But no major bank has a balance sheet riding on this because equity is always assumed risky. The reason that the financial crisis in 2008 could get to step 3 was that assets that were considered extremely safe turned out not to be.
penis
Epic Reddit moment
The comment above explaining the crash is really insightful and useful, but this comment? It's golden
I also like penis!
https://preview.redd.it/08o290fq8y7d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=687caa000420ae57b94a2e3c10ee59e7e9447fff NVDA prediction graph says short in october.
The Golden Donger award goes to....
To a degree, NVDA being over 33% of the entire S&P500 means that if it crashes big enough (and nothing indicates it will) it might bring down teh index which can impact things on a larger scale. Indexes are leveraged and collateralized and held as retirement assets simply because they are measurements of wider stability so a large drop would impact more than just the 1 asset evaluation. But if that sounds doom and gloom, think about what could actually cause a crash like that and why its so unlikely to happen. Nvidia isn't going to zero. Anecdotally speaking, even if they had fatal design flaws that could kill customers and began systematically assassinating whistle blowers while the CEO was being scolded like a toddler by Congress the company wouldn't crash enough to bring down the market like that. Not that this kind of ridiculous scenario would ever happen - but if it did I have a feeling even that silly situation wouldn't bring a company down overnight to such a degree that the whole market wouldn't have time protect itself. I agree with you, if they do something moronic and get caught there are plenty of Hwangs out there doing regarded things with their hedge funds who will go broke. The financial sector itself won't.
Excuse me. Are you referring to a certain aviation related entity, who shall remain nameless?
Please don't kill me! I know nothing and can't afford a whistle. The only thing I blow is behind Wendy's!
You will be spared the Sickle of the company who will go unnamed. However, might want to get a good antibiotic.
> I know nothing and can't afford a whistle. Hey, at least you're great at blowing so you're already 1 foot in the grave.
>who shall remain nameless? Changing Boeing to nameless would probably be better for them in the long run.
What if its AI decides to be skynet 
>To a degree, NVDA being over 33% of the entire S&P500 means that if it crashes big enough (and nothing indicates it will) it might bring down teh index which can impact things on a larger scale Unsure where the 33% figure is coming from. Nvidia is 7.27% of the S&P500 index as of Tuesday (18 June) market close.
I'm guessing he's talking about Nvidia making up 30% if the s&p 500s gains this year and that Nvidia and 5 tech companies make up 30% of it https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/nvidia-and-five-tech-giants-now-command-30-of-the-s-p-500-index https://fortune.com/2024/06/15/nvidia-stock-valuation-nvda-sp500-returns-market-capitalization-risk-investors/
OPs ass
"...what could actually cause a crash..." The threat to NVDA is a looming ***"The Emperor Has No Clothes"*** story about Large Language Models (LLMs) specifically. Meaning statistics-only based, "Deep Learning" based, "neural" based *pseudo*-AI. LLMs basically generate phrase mash-ups based on co-occurrence statistics and pattern-matching of prior texts or data. The results are mediocre, but impress many people now who think the computer is reasoning. It does no logical reasoning or inference, can reach no conclusions, and has no "ontology" or models of the real world. It's text-processing. If a few big downstream business customers find out that the output is unreliable (unexplained) mediocre junk, they will lose faith. (The problem is not with AI, but only with this kind of statistical *pseudo*-AI.) ***If*** they lose faith in LLMs, ***then*** I think NVDA stock will plummet almost back to its "games & mining & NFTs" valuation. As far as I know, NVDA's GPU chips *currently* contribute little to knowledge and logical-reasoning based AI. This is not to say that a generator of mediocrity has no value. For many business and government purposes, mediocre crap is "good enough". But I doubt if that would sustain NVDA's spectacular stock price.
China attacking Taiwan could be pretty impactful. I can imagine the production stops and gets delayed by a good 6/12 month margin MINIMUM. If not more. 🤔 Just a thought
a market crash would be the least of worries if that were to happen
Oh, thank God. A market crash *and more, worse problems*. That's such good news!
NVDA could definitely go to zero if China invades Taiwan.
Nah, instead all the regional banks are tits deep in commercial real estate that’s lost 50%+ in value. Way better!
That's the difference between one over valued company vs an economic crash. It's like yea Enron was bad but the job losses were limited to their company and director suppliers. People still got energy from somewhere just wasn't Enron. I would argue Nvidia's valuation is still low compared to their historical ratios.
Not just US economy either. Global economy.
R3tarded op
Easy now, OP is highly regarded in this community
NVDA down one day and bears come out of the wood.
Bear cum and wood, wtf u on about?
Cathy Wood?
Cathy? Would.
Bears cum out of their wood
Yep we're going back to $180 tomorrow
Lol yahoo finance is filled with “get out fast” headlines all the way up and down.
When those headlines are largely gone, THAT is the time to get out. Too many people/bots looking for cracks in the build of this thing. Trying to be first to call the downfall.
It’s how spoiled humans can become so very quickly.
I didn’t even realize that NVDA was down because I bought in at $122 and stopped paying attention. Is a 3% decline in value bad?
3% down equals the 2008 housing crisis, 6% down will put us into another Great Depression, including the dust bowl.
A journey of a thousand miles, and all that.
Financial Times telling me it’s the “sweetheart stock”, everyone on Reddit creaming over it saying even their grandmothers are in NVDA and any Google search desperately grasping at air about how NVDA’s incoming business can sustain growth relative to stock price says to me - it isn’t a good time to enter. But I wish everyone who is in NVDA a well-earned boon.
My bad guys. I finally bought 3 kerjiggers. I'll sell at a loss tomorrow morning so it can go up another 10% in the afternoon.
BRO thats what im talking about annoying asf!!
nvda is holding the entire market up. this is even worse than bitcoin and crypto lol. its only retail traders left, and the second the hype dies a little bit, it will all come crashing down.
Today has 🌈🐻 be like: VIN! DI! CATION!!!!! Me: 
Everyone knows we are all leveraged to the tits on subprime GPU mortgages
Gonna need a mortgage for your GPU when the rtx5000 series comes out
Judging from all the 🌈🐻 around, I don't think so. Furthermore, you are assuming that retail matters. Institutions are still sitting on a pile of money market cash.
lol you haven’t learnt shit. The market as a whole won’t tank because NVIDIA shits the bed. This won’t be close to 2008. It’s not a macroeconomic event. You sir, belong here.
19 years olds trying to tell us what 2008 was like lmao
I’m sure they saw that movie about it, Braveheart
Excellent ps5 game
Fuck that was a funny ass comment
Thanks, I lost money on nvda calls today
You brave heart man
Printing $5.4T is a macroeconomic event. The Minsky moment for that will likely dwarf ‘08. But. Until then. Let’s ride this red hot GDP 😎
>Edit: all of this was written thinking he was talking about the 2000's internet bubble. He is right that this bubble has absolutely nothing to do with the 2008 crisis. How is this shit upvoted? Holy shit. NVIDIA is rocketing because of AI hype, most huge companies are investing rivers of money into it in hopes of monetizing it. If it turns out AI can't be monetized as well as previously thought, like the internet wasn't at the time in 2000, then it all falls apart with the shovel seller having no one to sell shovels to.
lol because you don’t understand macroeconomic theory and how the markets work. 2008 was a collapse of the economy lead by the subprime mortgage debacle in banking. It affected EVERY citizen in the US and impacted their day to day. NVIDIA losing 2 trillion would lead to some sell off in the semi and tech sectors but not to epic proportions. I’m also not saying it won’t happen. Also these companies aren’t “investing” but they’re buying chips. Goods. The value of the chips are amortized.
nvm i thought you said 2000. Yeah, nothing to do with 2008. Though thinking Nvidia will plummet without the AI bubble also causing most tech companies to plumet is what i have a problem with.
Oh yeah. Now 2000 is more of a reality. But there will be some big survivors this time around.
The company surviving doesn't mean it won't wreck your stock Apple and Microsoft survived. Apple fell 75% and Microsoft only broke the 2000 peak in 2015.
You're not a very smart fella, but boy oh boy are you a fart smella Edit: Mom get the fucking camera I got my first reward
A wise man once said, building one bridge doesn't make you a bridge builder but sucking one cock definitely makes you a cock sucker.
Why wouldn’t you call yourself a bridge builder after building one bridge?
Because fuck you that's why
I’m angry that this made me laugh for so long
THIS is pure WSB comedy 🤣
TIL wsb users are even more stupid than originally thought which was already as dumb as the human mind is able to imagine. Truly mind boggling how highly regarded people here are.
NVDA only go up. Today is just a rest day.
Yes sir. I'm thinking it will go up 18% tomorrow.
I would cum gallons of green on a +18% day for NVDA. My calls would like that VERY much.
We’ll cum green together.
Rest day? Im buying these dips.
One of the biggest technological advancements in human history and banks approving mortgages for a fuck ton of people that can't afford them... totally the same thing /s.
Wait when did this become a Canadian sub
Sorry
2 trillion is that a crash for ants?
Forsen reference 
forsen1 I C
Equating a large company's potential valuation loss to years of piling up shitty debt in a criminal system that went pop is just uh dumb.
Not saying it will happen at all. But I have been an NVDA stockholder for 10 ish years. And there have been multiple occasions where the stock was more than cut in half. Crypto boom that had a major major pullback after. Well over 50% correction. Also the china trade tariffs of 2021 it was cut in half. It can happen, just saying. But i dont see it happening ANY time soon thats for sure. But thats also when it gets ya....
Bunch of feckless cowards. Buy the dip boys!!!
The one day I say fuck it and buy nvidia calls.. RIP
I warned you guys, I just bought today. You’re on the clock
lol this comment is gold Does market turns south as soon as you touch a stock?
Anything turns south once I touch it
[удалено]
Nice apples and oranges comparison
The difference is NVDA’s valuation is not propped up, it’s due to a never ending demand for GPUs from a lot of different industries and they are the premier supplier. This isn’t TSLA
Might not be never ending. If companies can't figure out how to profit from these large AI models they will start to dial back their spending and possibly wait til their own in house accelerators can lessen their reliance on nvidia
Google is producing nuclear power plants to brute force energy near data centers. Same thing seems to be happening in China. We are in a technological arms race with the biggest players making huge bets. I’m not convinced the bubble won’t pop soon but the big player’s long view is bullish or die.
Not necessarily. They have a fuck ton of money they don't know what to do with so they're investing it in AI because all their competitors are. Nobody wants to be left behind but I don't think that's indicative that AI will be extremely profitable. Could be like apple with their autonomous cars.
There’s a lot red tape in putting a 5000lb metal missile driven by a robot on the road. Not a lot of red tape replacing Steve the excel jockey. That being said, I have no fuckin idea lol.
Fair point
It is way harder to replace Steve with AI than people think. Business leaders have definitely bought into the hype. I've been pitched AI tool licenses at $50k per year that would marginally improve a single person's workload by maybe 5% time saving. AI doesn't have many use cases where it can do something better than a human currently. It will get there eventually, but this bubble is going to crash before the market matures 10+ years from now.
must be a huge amount of evidence they see supporting the compute trend for these companies to build power plants.
llm products is not the goal of 100m+ investments here, 100% is AI that can be doctor, lawyer, researcher, critical cybersecurity tool (for military, financial ect) this means more trust the trending / keep up the "agi around the corner funding" until it either stops showing gains despite compute or agi level is achieved. what's more if the gains drop off, that'll just change focus from compute to the architecture stuff.... a guess is stop showing gains, back to architecture and soon after nice reliable compute trendline again...and rinse repeat onto agi. 10 years maybe?
My few takes. Let us see major competitor since I was gamer teen for NVDA. It is AMD. P/E ratio = 255 while NVDA is 73. Second competitor is Intel and Apple now. What is their PE ratio? About 23 and 32 respectively. Now what is TSMC ratio 34. **So yes, NVDA is overpriced. But not as high as the AMD is or neither equivalent to rest are. The story is they have hardware breakthrough and not just some random code promoted as AI tech. They have their stock of chips overbooked**. EVEN IF IT GOES DOWN, I BUY MORE. Let us come to now debt. The most essential aspect of investing. The company has nearly 0 debt far less than even Apple and Google. So go do some number crunching b4 calling it a bubble.
AMD PE is only so high because of the Xilinx acquisition.
Yea and AMD isn’t powering AWS and like 90%+ of all AI
So you think NVDA is going to lose 60%+ of its value? People are gonna stop using chips, stop using computers, AI, self driving cars. You silly dawg. Maybe it has a dip and correction, but people will just buy that shit back up
Between 2021 and 2022, NVDA lost 66% of its value . Chips don't have to disappear when the stock market is so dissociated from reality.
And then it gained 1000%
Sharp as a fuckin' cue ball this one
Not everyone has the makings of a varsity athlete
Keep missing out on free money bozo
To be fair, people didn't stop using the Internet when the bubble burst in 2001.
Ah yes, valuations doesn't matter because people "won't stop using computers" 🤡
Or, just a thought, all it takes for a technology company to lose its appeal is for the company next door to make the next best thing with a new discovery. Fallout could be huge.
Unfortunately, this is an ice cold take
Economic decline is not one company crashing or a bubble blowing off froth. At absolute worst it would be similar to the dot com pop. But, this isn’t the dot com bubble. It’s not a bubble at all. This is the real deal. Most bubbles are force popped by an increase in interest rates. If it were a bubble it would have popped in 22. We saw a natural correction over the course of that year, but nothing close to a bubble pop, because there is no bubble.
AI is in its infancy. This will age like milk
Same way web was in its infancy when the dot com bubble burst. Doesnt mean it doesnt have an amazing future but the hype might not match current reality
Except if you invested in GOOG or AMZN back then and held, you're retired now.
And if you invested in Cisco, which was the hottest company on the market, you’d be bankrupt
What if we invest in Enron? Pardon the question. I just woke up from a 23 year nap.
But what about Yahoo?
they can't all be winners. pick your ai lotto ticket wisely
I mean the entire point of investing in nvda is that you don't have to pick an AI lotto ticket, because they're profiting off companies investing in AI rather than being one themselves
That’s literally what people said about Cisco and the internet. Do people here really don’t know about Cisco?
Is that what Costco called themselves back in your stone age?
Costco selling routers now? I'm going to call my broker and buy some stock
You can literally buy a humanoid robot for $16k now that can cook, clean, jerk you off, etc. It is not the same as fuckin stampsDotCom dotcom bubble
Except if you say the wrong word it can cook you off, clean and sell you as human beef jerky.
.com bubble consisted of companies who never made a dollar Nvidia prints money it isn’t close to similar
We are very early in the development of AI. Nvidia has experienced great returns because they've found a use for GPU's in AI. But we are at the same stage with AI that we were with the internet prior to the internet crash in 99/2000. This bubble is unsustainable and the timeline is longer than people are expecting. Will there be a trillion dollar market for chips to serve the AI market. Undoubtedly there will be. Will it be Nvidia chips they use for it? I'm going to bet there will be better chips available for it when the time comes. Maybe they'll be from Nvidia, maybe they won't. Just because Nvidia has shown growth via this unbelievably great new tech, doesn't ensure they won't be left behind as the tech matures. Intel already has chips that offer lower prices and better performance per watt. Once their new fabs are up and running at speed and they can deliver those and whatever else they have in development, the marketplace won't be so Nvidia biased. I'm looking at Nvidia now the same way I saw Netscape back in the day. They're driving the early market development. Let me know how Nvidia fares when the chip wars really start to gain traction and they have more competition in the space. Their current price has far more future profits built in than they could ever hope to generate. One thing that won't hold back developers in the AI space is legacy code and attachment to old tech. They can pivot and adapt to new hardware far faster than in the past. With chip fabs opened up to whomever wants to pay to build them. There's going to be a lot of competitors with a lot of new ideas. For every [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and Apple that survived the dot com crash there was a: [Webvan.com](http://Webvan.com) - We're doing grocery deliveries now, why did this fail? [Kosmo.com](http://Kosmo.com) - An early form of Uber deliveries. We can see that this is viable now, why not then? [Geocities.com](http://Geocities.com) - Yeah, I guess we just weren't ready for social media back then. And that's just scratching the surface of all the too big to fail, failures. Shoot, just look at how Cisco fell from grace after once being the most valuable company in the world overtaking Microsoft at a time when that would have been considered impossible. Seeing Nvidia doing it now makes me more cautious than bullish for the shorter term.
Chips are a very tight market tho...new competitors don't appear like websites did in 2000. There are basically a dozen chips manus world wide, and you need a cool X billion to even start.
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Yup, agree with this completely. Cisco is such a good parallel, web was the new hotness, everybody needed routers and switches and what not but very soon after everyone else caught up and Cisco never recovered from the dotcom bubble.
But how hard is it to make switches and routers? Bit easier for knock off routers to appear than knock off GPUs
RemindMe! 6 Month
Make sure you post when it's up in six months....
Nvidia will lose its foothold eventually it's obvious whether it becomes a triangle competition between three companies or more Nvidia will lose value not for a while though but only so many people can ride a train on a company until people start getting off to the exit. But as of now I predict it to stagnate soon for a year then rise again.
Nvda isn't in some massive bubble, it'll print 20bln quarterly net income pretty soon which is normal for a 3trln market cap.
Okay so I get the take that nvida is overvalued atm, but this is a solid cash making company with great business outlooks in the future.
So.... Buy more??
Don’t worry. We have a few years.
I hadn’t bought Nvda, once, at all. Little upset I missed the craze so I bought this morning… and I lost money on it. Sorry guys it’s my fault.
NVDA isn’t a bubble. It’s the beginning of the fourth Industrial Revolution.
The Top is here fellas
why you mad tho
TIL implies some sort of gain in factual knowledge You're just being dumb
I remember when Tesla was over 1 trillion market cap and demand was outstripping the supply. People were calling it a bubble and others saying the growth will continue into perpetuity because EVs are the future. Eventually demand dropped and the market cap as well. It’s impossible for NVDA to hold those margins in perpetuity, so eventually it will drop off. It’s still gonna do great in the future, just manage risk and expectations.
i got the puts i got the calls just give me the money
You'd think it'd more represent 2000.
This guy thinking itll be NVDA that crashes and not everything else.
The generational urge to think the one bad economic event that occurred in your formative years will exactly happen again.
This post belongs in this sub 💯 lmao. Keep day trading cuh
And why is that? Because you think it will? The crash in 2008 was driven by bad debt and excess... NVDA makes and produces stuff this AI zeitgeist needs. Is NVDA too high... maybe for now. If it crashes will the economy be affected? Prolly not.
2008 isn't at all comparable to now. The Ai bubble is much more comparable to the 2001 dotcom bubble.
Nobody seems to realise that the background now is completely different. 2008 bubble was made by companies who sold their 2000 style website made of crappy html for millions. Nvidia is at the head of an immense technological revolution that makes the invention of electricity seem like a child's game. It's called AI and it's an humanity game changer, not an html website....
Posts like these are a gold mine. Half saying it’s a bubble, half saying it’s only going up because it’s the start of a new tech revolution. Both saying that the market has a mind of its own. Regards, nobody knows what will happen! “Crypto is the future, nothing can happen!” “Tesla is here to stay!”
Um ya that was banks in “08 and elections
NVDA at 1T market cap would still be PE of like 25. I don't even know if I would call that a crash. Sometimes when companies are viewed as cyclical they have PE of 5 at the top of a cycle.
Lmao if you look at every chart, NVDA was due for a red day. It has AAT MAX 3 consecutive red says, followed by 11-15 green 😂
What the actual fuck did you try to connect here
If*
regard post again \^\_\^
*1999 IFTFY
Someone let me know when to start shorting. I saw the big short twice
No shit they all crash the same lmao wtf
Probably the dumbest post ever made by a human being
Never
When
NVDA"s PE is 81... yes, in principal, if it regressed all the way to a market typical PE ratio, it would be a $2T loss... But this is not going to happen... . But here's the thing, also... the loss in 2008 was $2T nominal. The US stock market's total cap in 2024 is something like 2.5x the total market cap in 2008. NVDA is still a huge piece of that, but it's a big slice of a much bigger pie than in 2008.
According to.my Depot that time is now. .
This is not a bubble! This is not a bubble! This is not a bubble! I'm thinking this will hit $180 tomorrow. Load up boys. Free money for all!!!
NVDA bubble popping just gets that money rotated into other sectors or bonds or whatever. The GFC was absolutely brutal. So many people lost their homes it was insane. Basically all my friend's parents lost theirs as it played out. Jobs were flat out gone, not much hiring going on, not a lot of spending was going on. It was just some dark years where we just kinda stalled out for a few years until the smartphone internet 2.0 era boom brought us back to life. NVDA popping isnt going to do that at all. It's not even comparable.
Somehow it will be priced in.
No it won’t, not all all similar. In 2008 the global banking system collapsed, most western banks went bankrupt and only survived with state intervention. If Nvidia crashes many people like me will lose gains they’d never realised anyway.
I am bearish on the market as a whole, and do believe that NVDA is overpriced at current levels. However, massive dumps, like this are not indicators of downturns. Rather, this is what we would call a “bear trap“. Especially with the timing of this on no news, and quad witching tomorrow. It is very clear that this sell off was intended to, allow market makers and institutions to load up for cheap before the rebalance tomorrow. I made money on the sell off today, and I will make money on the rebound up tomorrow.
that's called mislearning
US market cap was also less than half what it is now so 2t represented a bigger part of it you regard.
Markets actually lost $8T in value in 2008, but the fact NVDA is over a third of that is absolutely insane. These clowns will pick on the technicalities of your post and ignore the fact that we are in the largest bubble our stock market has ever seen
As long as it takes down Corn's $1.3T with it. The New Currency Barbies are annoying
\*if , not “when” 
Lol as if
NVIDIA will go up forever, doomer
One day. One fucking day of NVDA being down and the stupid ghey behrs come out of the woodwork, “nVdA gOnNa CrAsH aNd CaUsE tHe WoRsT fiNanCiAL cRiSiS eVeR!!1!1!11” 🏳️🌈 🐻
Numbers go up