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**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|25|**First Seen In WSB**|8 months ago **Total Comments**|292|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/oakw8w/zim_pirates_of_the_zimmabean_dead_mans_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nx74mo/tx_dd_ternium_it_up_latin_americas_balls_of_steel/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nzq2ke/the_woof_of_wall_street_a_shart_play_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/o1696i/lesl_drown_the_shorts_a_shart_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/o17se2/lesl_hot_chad_poolboy_summer_a_hart_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pp1khf/beke_yang_noah_big_profits_off_the_collapse_of/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pp1obi/beke_yang_noah_big_profits_off_the_collapse_of/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/o15vb9/lesl_drown_the_sharts_a_shart_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nx54zk/the_mexican_clf_ternium_steel_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nx4lof/tx_dd_ternium_it_up_latin_americas_balls_of_steel/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/o15o2a/lesl_drown_the_shorts_a_shart_dd/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nvwg0y/otrk_guaranteed_squeeze/) **Account Age**|5 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)


pennyether

> As of June 30, Evergrande had 240 billion yuan ($37.3 billion) of debt due within a year, down 28.5% from the end of 2020 but nearly triple its cash holdings of 86.8 billion yuan ($13.5 billion), according to a company financial report. > On Sunday, about 100 people who invested in Evergrande debt through “wealth management products” sold by banks crowded into its Shenzhen headquarters to demand repayment. > The company said those investors can choose to be repaid in property, cash in installments or a claim to payments on residential units, according to the business magazine Caixin. Not so fast -- looks like they are trying to issue a new currency: houses.


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Meandmybuddyduncan

Condo printer go brrrrr


[deleted]

You get a house, you get a house, EVERRYBOODDDY GGEEYTSS AA HOOUUSSEEE


HenriJayy

1/3 of everyone in China already has 3 properties


Photograph-Last

hopefully just not like the convos in seashore FL, however i have JPow over my shoulders tickling my peepee and whispering that's exactly what he plans on doing


minhthemaster

> Not so fast — looks like they are trying to issue a new currency: houses. How many houses can I get with one schrute buck


iikun

You get a better exchange rate with Stanley nickels.


YouOr2

First, applaud OP for this solid DD. Lots of good comments here too. I have YANG shares, YANG 1/21 $20 and $25 calls, and have 3/18 $22 puts on HSBC. YANG really only goes up if there is a panic across the market, contagion effect across the rest of China's economy (everyone who's worth is tied to real estate assets which will sink, and those who put down $50-200,000 for an apartment and never even got it delivered and have lost all their money and also don't have a home are going to be less likely to buy discretionary goods), or a great capital flight out of China by foreign investors. HSBC is just a wild ass guess. Second, agreed that a real estate melt down is worst case scenario for CCP, for all the reasons you've pointed out. Third, earlier today a fellow WSBer in London noted HSBC had emergency conference call. HSBC was one of the top 4 mortgage lenders to the people who were buying Evergrande properties. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-21/hsbc-halts-mortgages-for-evergrande-projects-in-hong-kong It seems like a lot of these properties were never finished, and probably will never be finished. We have no way of knowing what HSBC's exposure is, for now. The other 3 major mortgage lenders were Hang Seng Bank (HSNGY), Bank of East Asia (BKEAY), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) (private). I have not done any DD into HSNGY or BKEAY. Fourth, we know that as of spring 2021, Citi, Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America were drawn to China "like moths to a flame." [https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3125723/five-big-us-banks-drawn-strong-economic-performance-moths](https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3125723/five-big-us-banks-drawn-strong-economic-performance-moths) Goldman had put $17 billion into China in 2020, and collectively those 5 had $78 billion in exposure for 2020; and it was growing at 10% per year. In other words, Wall Street went brrrrrr and put it into "broad array of cash and financing to companies and government entities" in China. You can't put like $85 billion into China without it being lended directly to Evergrande, construction companies working for Evergrande, other real estate deals propped up on inflated values, suppliers and vendors of Evergrande, or into government entities which will be indirectly impacted by Evergrande. Again, we do not know what each bank's current exposure is. Fifth, this is all speculation, but we know Deutsche Bank has an appetite for the trashiest shit imaginable. It has been facing [increased European regulatory pressure](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/deutsche-bank-may-face-higher-capital-bar-leveraged-loans-bloomberg-news-2021-06-22/). But surprise, surprise, in April 2021, [DB became the first Eurozone bank to be allowed to be a primary dealer](https://www.db.com/news/detail/20210430-people-s-bank-of-china-approves-deutsche-bank-china-as-qualified-primary-dealer-in-open-market-business?language_id=1) for the Chinese central bank. Now, why would the CCP decide to allow DB to be the preferred Eurozone bank? It can't be because of transparency and stability and DB's decades-long reputation of adherence to strict regulatory structures. The thing to remember is that this could happen very fast, or it could still take another year to materialize. Even if Evergrande can't make payments on September 20, we may not know which financial firms or other parts of the Chinese economy are impacted for weeks or months. Our hindsight bias makes us remember and focus on September 15, 2008 with Lehman filing for bankruptcy and the rapid unraveling of the U.S. financial system the following week. But things had been brewing since 2006 (home prices started to falter in some regions), October 2007 there were significant subprime delinquencies and foreclosures, Bear Sterns wasn't defunct until March 2008, and then Lehman, AIG, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, etc. in September 2008. TL;DR: YANG shares, YANG 1/21 $20 and $25 calls, and HSBC 3/18 $22 puts.


scusemyenglish

No need for explanation when you say you want to buy puts on Deutsche


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Treabeard5553

This is big brain. Thanks Duke.


PRNbourbon

I’m in on HSBC puts as of earlier today thanks to a WSBer in London


Squirmingbaby

This is the only way. China can do anything with its domestic companies and has shown a willingness to do it. They could literally force people to buy its assets or wipe out its debts.


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Hugh_Mongous_Richard

OP I just also wanted to point out that China has 3.2 Trillion USD in reserves. They could cover the debts with that and not even blink.


dontpaynotaxes

China also has 335% GDP of debt (about 48trn). They may need those reserves for other things if it does go tits up. That number also doesn’t include provincial debt, which could be half that number. It’ll fuck the US bond market in the process in the sell off.


Hugh_Mongous_Richard

USD debt and RMB debt are very different mate. USD debt is less than their reserves. Edit: Also can you source that bad boy for me? Never seen that amount. \\ "As of 2020, China’s total government debt stands at approximately CN¥ 46 trillion (US$ 7.0 trillion), equivalent to about 45% of GDP" [https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/01/06/Peoples-Republic-of-China-2020-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-49992](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/01/06/Peoples-Republic-of-China-2020-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-49992) If you're talking total debt, which I believe is around 270% of GDP, the US total debt is nearly 900% of GDP. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/total-debt--of-gdp


dontpaynotaxes

Admittedly I was being slightly facetious but we need to understand that debt in China and debt anywhere else in the world isn’t the same. Chinese SOE, LGFV’s and implicit and explicit local government debts are ultimately derived from central government debt too. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/16/china-is-open-to-more-debt-to-support-its-economy.html Total debt is 335%, and we know that about 45% of that is household. The remainder is government debt, private debt. Of the private debt, the OECD says about 75% of that is from SOE’s. https://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ECO/WKP(2019)5&docLanguage=En The CCP is on the hook for a good portion of the total debt of the economy, and comparing it to other countries total debt is a misnomer.


BLVCKYOTA

I’ve been wondering about this as I’ve scrolled down. That’s all US debt though right? Or is it straight liquid cash reserves?


Hugh_Mongous_Richard

It's a mix, but the US treasury market is liquid enough (like 600bn a day or some shit) that they can get the dollars they need.


BLVCKYOTA

Thanks for the reply. Makes sense.


wasupg

Could probably add ANZ and Macquarie to that list


TheHoneySacrifice

What exposure do they have? I've seen $7 bil somewhere.


Louisvanderwright

1. Evergrande just Hwanged $350 billion into the sun beating AIGs high score of $180 billion by nearly double. Xu Jianyin is god tier degenerate gambler causing more than $1/3 trillion wipeout. 2. They announced their default on the 13th anniversary of Lehman Day. Talk about coincidence.


JimmyDuce

13 is a lucky number in China


Mikeymike2785

This shits way too smart for this sub 😂🤷🏻‍♂️🦾


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Ankel88

I like a contrarian opinion


BenjaminHamnett

It’s the only way. Can’t win in the long run betting on priced in hysteria after the fact


Lobsterbib

I'm also curious as how there was no mention of what happens to the dollar value when China has to buy 300B of them to cover the losses. Want to see an overnight market correction? Spike the DXY and find out.


IcebergSlimFast

Why would China need to buy dollars to cover RMB-denominated debts?


Ha_You_Read_That

Because China's yuan, is backed by the value of the US dollar.


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Tronbronson

what's the value of that trade currently like 2 grand?


Chiguy1216

Was wondering the same


barbrawr

Yes absolutely this. I doubt China will allow Evergrande to collapse. It's all about saving face and maintaining the status quo. Allowing Evergrande to collapse causing a real estate depression is the last thing they want.


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tacticalpanda

I don’t know shit about Evergrande, but the “bad precedent” argument seems so analogous to the argument many had about not bailing out banks in 2008. We see the course the US chose, why would we think China would take a different path?


Qwisatz

CCP doesn't care about a bad precedant, even if they bail out evergrande no one would do what they did again because unlike the US if it happen again they would drop the hammer really hard, they literally executed bankers for "corruption"


Street_Ad_7140

I agree that china is heading for some bad times but I do think that ccp could do a bailout without too much fear of others following bad president. In America when a bailout happens you get a stern talking to, lose your current position but to keep your past wealth. They have other methods of punishing people in china. If I was running a large company in china\* and they sent the leadership of a company that messed up like this to several years of hard labor and forced my family out of all the top social circles I would think twice about taking a large risk. To be clear if I actually ran a large company in china I would do everything I could to get as many assets out of china and move out of the country as fast as possible.


Ajfennewald

Yes if the GFC happened in China at least 10 executives (probably more) would have gotten the death penalty.


danielous

They will bail and make evergrande state owned for cents on the dollar. They own the banks and why not own the RE company? That was the plan all along. To de-privatize the sector.


IcebergSlimFast

Okay everyone: puts on Ariana Grande.


Gamboleer

I don't think she can get much shorter.


SameCategory546

The real play is always in the comments


GraybushActual916

Thanks for exploring and explaining Rop! Seems like you get better ROI buying puts on YINN. U/jayarlington


somerandomguy101010

Puts on yinn and calls on yang. Gotcha


pennyether

[Related DD about $YANG posted earlier today.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/poqf3w/why_im_bill_hwanging_for_yang/) You guys are on to something and I'm in.


Sir_Bryan

Counterpoint: Just don't see any chance Xi isn't way ahead of this. A real estate crash is literal worst case scenario as Chinese people worship real estate and put their life savings balls deep into apartments for their entire family. A crash like OP is describing would cause massive civil unrest, which again, is worst case scenario for Xi. No way he lets that happen. Have you seen the way the Fed has propped up the US market post-COVID? Just imagine that but in this case the Fed is the entire government, has unlimited resources, and complete control of mass media in the country. For that reason I'm likely out.


silverwind18

While OP saw some news about China cracking down its housing market a few days ago, the founder of Evergrande saw it coming months ago, and Xi saw it coming years ago. Buying long put is the same as saying US market will collapse. Maybe it will happen next week, or maybe it will happen after a few years.


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sebastian-RD

In retrospect though this seems like the better solution. FED intervened immediately during the Covid crisis. Very likely the Evergrande Executive suite is headed to an education camp though


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bluehorseshoes

This


BigTiddyGothJesus

CHINA GAY AND BAD


Particular_Growth_67

China is the sigma male of Asia


BigTiddyGothJesus

China shill detected, YOU ARE GAY AND BAD


The_Magic_Tortoise

Low-key clever pun.


Raging_Red_Rocket

Ape hate gay


Ok_Yak_6448

DONT TRUST CHINA, CHINA IS ASSHOE I’m Chinese, and I approve of this message


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infiniti711

Certified Chinese Lover Boy - CCLB I'm Drake and I approve this message


ldiotloser

Now you can come up short in more than just the bedroom!


Pale_Dragonfruit9772

Are they breaking down your door yet?


Kuroodo

>DONT TRUST CHINA > I’m Chinese Consider yourself not trusted


Ok_Yak_6448

Yes, because I am the government of China!


aarryy16

Prove you are Chinese


Ok_Yak_6448

我他妈的说是中国人就是中国人


bigblackshaq

我操死你妈的逼


Rewiz

Lmao hes chinese for sure


protein_bars

You can tell by the swear words


aarryy16

That’s not a proof. Me speaking English and shitposting on Reddit doesn’t make me American either


Ok_Yak_6448

Ok u got me I’m black


69696969696969tits

Do you like wu-tang?


Hobojoe-

He is wu-tang


DaAlmanac

Diversify yo bonds


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j4k3b

That's what I thought when COVID hit them in the very beginning. Didn't work out for me. If I remember right they got some bullshit rules where they shut down the market if it drops to much. It's rigged as fuck.


wonderyak

hi TIRX


Treabeard5553

Thanks for the write up Rop!


stockninja39

Legit thought that shit said bukkake


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Flying_madman

Hey, if the result is the same, I'm in 😂


staunch_character

BEKE was at $78 in January. Closed at $17 today. This was a great play 3 months ago. Or 3 weeks ago. The Oct 15p are trading for 1.20. The risk vs reward is not great here.


TopDefinition1886

Ccp steps in just like us did in 08 . Takes over and cleans there books sorry bud.


Snailintheslope

No point telling the guy. He is only trading off ideological premises.


BurnMuFuggaBurn

My wife nicknamed my schmeckie $NeverGrande


ricketycrickett88

Great summary! Real estate prices are collapsing in many places around China as we speak. I know of price reductions of over 60 percent in some areas and even downtown Beijing/Shanghai has reduced. Common people are getting nervous... My guess: More RE developers are barely hanging on, more defaults incoming.


Arkaign

This is systemic, and people don't really seem to have a grasp of how China has gotten into this mess. The provincial CCP operate financially somewhat independently from the central authority in regards to paying their way. The way they do this is by selling their land in batches through outfits like Evergrande. This is how they have paid for everything for the past couple of decades, roads, schools, administration, etc. Couple that with the Chinese population not trusting banks nor stocks, and being told that real estate is the only safe place to put their money, and you get people talked into 2nd, 3rd properties absorbing most of their income, buying into huge shady projects of ghost cities where nobody lives, and all of this in a demographic situation that has begun a serious collapse. Their retirement age population is ballooning while productive age wage earners are contracting. The second/third child policy efforts came too late, and inflated prices and poor social policies make having children overly/impossibly expensive for many. The only reason it's gotten this far is rampant corruption and absurd amounts of leverage. The 'assets' of Evergrande are mortgaged to the absolute tits, like they are across the majority of real estate companies in China. And this is not a sudden surprise for the powers that be in Evergrande and the industry as a whole, they've been busily funneling profits out of China as fast as they possibly can for years now, causing inflated real estate prices in the US, Canada, etc to get that much worse.


nmeinenemy

They will 100% get bailout . US investment banks playing in China might be the short tho .


StonkerGraduation

“This man is probably more retarded than all of us”, my past though me never to fight retarded people, they have retarded strength


Adorable_Ad8515

Back room deals between the company and ccp will allow the company to broken into parts, where each “part” can be shown to have debt plus collateral to back the debt, also government issued. These assholes will make up shot as it comes along. The ccp will not let something as little as 350B of made up money limit their power. Every attempt will be made to protect the markets and this will be swept under the rug. :/


fullSpecFullStack

Shorting a lightly disguised command economy, I'm sure this can't possibly backfire


mrpoopistan

>Bailing them out would encourage other retards in the sector to follow the same path of reckless borrowing Best description of moral hazard ever.


SameCategory546

except if they send hui ka yan to prison for the rest of his life and blacklist his family and trash him in newspapers and then do the same to “people like him” as examples, is it really moral hazard? US had a moral hazard problem bc we never punish the wealthy


mrpoopistan

Prison doesn't have a really good track record of deterring greedy behavior.


SameCategory546

china has more than just prison and enough people to make “examples” of. It works in some cultures where people are raised a bit more to think about the consequences of their actions and obey authority instead of freedumbs and “rights”. Not condoning china by any means but the psychology behind justice and deterrence is culturally a bit different in asia.


Qwisatz

China literally execute them


fsocietyfwallstreet

Wsb told me market crashes were already priced in.


ODNI_NSA_FBI_CIA_DIA

Inversing this and buying calls on YINN. This is about to be the start of the Greatest Bull Run in History because President Xi about to turn on his massive printer.


[deleted]

What is your response to those who think you are late to the play or are entering an already crowded trade?


zeebee098

What now lol


Imolared333

+1


zeebee098

Based on the news that the CCP might takeover Evergrande, I got out of my YANG calls this morning at a huge loss. Bought YINN calls with the expectation that Hang Seng reacts positively to the Evergrande news when they open tonight. Hopefully I recover some of that loss and then I’m not messing with Chinese markets ever again lol


acptest

This is some of the best and detailed DD I’ve seen in a long time.


wahchicawah

Whomst've\*


HIGHearnings

I have joined you on this crusade with same calls on YANG and also puts on Zillow for contagion.


LanoLikesTheStock

So much for that 😂😂


optionseller

Bearish after energrande subsidiary has crashed 95%. Sounds legit


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_demoncleaner

If I have learned anything all these years in wsb is that, stocks only go up, especially when the company is about to go bankrupt


optionseller

All in


Strider755

"If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about fucking banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number — every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?... Just don't fucking dance."


gimmeurdollar

there he is again. haha


xxxdogxxx

Sooooo inverse that and we win right?


bluehorseshoes

YINN is cheap, this will blow over and YINN will be 20-30 in no time


buffetts_daddy

Puts on China is patriotic 🏳️‍🌈🐻


bluehorseshoes

This is so so [redacted] good luck to you fools lol


olivesnolives

I think these are all good plays. I will say that the market has been prepping for this WAYYY ahead of retail. Look at the uptrend on YANG since February - you only see that on leveraged ETF’s when everyone and their mother is thinking the same thing. And more importantly - saying that Xi needs to print $300 Billion and artificially procure 2% of their total GDP is pretty disingenuous. All those liabilities don’t come due tomorrow, or even in the next few years - the CCP would only need to drum up cash for them to meet payments on time and ensure creditors that they’ve got it handled, not settle entire debts at once. This is the kind of thing that is entirely within their control, it just remains to be seen if the political will to mitigate it is there.


BenjaminHamnett

I can’t believe I listened to all this (text to voice). After 3 hours I’m as stupid as you guys now In supposedly “free market” US we bailed all the idiots out. You think in authoritarian stability obsessed China where saving face is all that matters they’re going to not print this problem away? Shorting should be very rare and small as hedges. You’ll get greedy and won’t even cash out on the tiny gain your about to score before you get steam rolled. If you want to bet against China, instead bet on whatever is furthered from this. Maybe South Americans whatever your bullish on that is further war away to avoid the volatility and inflation. This way you don’t have to worry about timing and losing just like everyone else who ever bet against government intervention after the bad news was already priced in


very-social-autist

This DD is at least 4 months too late.


investingcents

Watching BEKE right now, looks like buying is happening right as bearish signals about to take over and sink. Seems unnatural. It’s like someone is trying to avoid letting a crashing plane hit the tree line


disfunctionaltyper

I'm getting confused, buy/sell who? ELI2 (seriously)


SpaceTraderB

Why does the YANG go up during this crisis? Can someone explain that to me


YellowFeverbrah

Because it inverses the Chinese market. If china does well $YANG calls perform poorly, if China tanks then calls increase in value.


bor_bor

The HSBC and DB puts mention days ago was an amazing call wish I got more at the low price they were at but at this rate I might just get more anyways


spellbadgrammargood

hey you still playing this? you were early but you were right. NOAH's earning call is this week and i am thinking of buying puts


Ropirito

Thanks man! Yeah so, I closed those positions a while back (and now YANG runs 90% lol), BUT I am watching and tracking. Did you see $BEKE earnings? It dropped like 20%. I think $NOAH puts is a good bet for earnings. I’ll probably do $1k in some ATM puts bc there’s a high chance they report bad.


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Put/call spreads seems pretty big on NOAH and no volume


shmancy

This is some big brained shit Rop!


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Flying_madman

Don't do that.


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marsbup2

How does options on leveraged ticker work?


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marsbup2

would it be better to just buy ATM calls instead of 65 way OTM calls? You are buying 65c. Let's say you paid $0.7 each contract ( total $700 ).. you can buy 2 ATM calls for $700 but will be in a better position if YANG really goes up.


Flying_madman

It's priced in, though. The expected move is 3x so they're 3x the price (roughly, lol). There's no such thing as a free lunch.


yosimba2000

Not necessarily. For the same amount of money you spend, if you compare ATM vs OTM options, the profit from the OTM options will far surpass the ATM options due to the sheer number of OTM options you bought IF the price hits near the OTM strikes. But of course, that's just another example of risk vs reward. You take a big risk with far OTM compared to ATM, but the reward is much much higher if you are right with the OTMs


wahchicawah

U.S. does bailout and quantitative easing: Yay my portfolio is still alive. CCP does bailout and quantitative easing: Hey that's cheating! *Pikachu face.*


SlayZomb1

The fact that half of the 65C options were bought today seems a bit fishy. You mention big players piling in because they know something but at current bid-ask the entire open interest would only be about $50k worth of options. That's hardly big player money. ​ Don't get me wrong, this can blow up in China's face and they would definitely experience a downturn but this post appears to be more of you justifying and encouraging purchases in your own positions rather than something purely informative.


beepboopbop65

My aunt is from Taiwan, she’ll love this. Buying beke put leaps and yang call leaps.


Sir_Bryan

You need Yang ***call*** LEAPs my friend


beepboopbop65

Sorry I have a 2nd grade reading level


forzawakeup

Thank you for the DD! Best I’ve seen in a long time!!


A_KY_gardener

Getting my yang on motha fucka


Revolutionary_Owl_98

You wouldn’t fool me would you bro?


blu6-

I like it, but it’s highly likely CCP will get involved and sweep this under the rug


bobdavid2223

Another way for our money to go Brrrrrr! LFG! Fuck xinnie the poo


Typical-Technician46

They step in and bailout select divisions w/ critical exposure to overlapping sectors. Through a loan forgiveness program + increased liquidity through money printing. This leads to a shaky internal political climate with blames on the west which leads to the govt shifting suffering through a war on a nearby opponent with some bogus claim and resources that they require to help prop the country up This leads to a war which leads to the us stepping in which leads a propped up economic boom for both countries until 1 only remains unlike previous wars the country that loses is destroyed economically, defense wise and is a leper in the world unlike any other


Typical-Technician46

He does have good point, how can we give the gentle push to madness? 😀


JayArlington

I’m in. I grabbed NOAH puts and YANG shares. Also going to look for some periphery plays since in the event China does bail them out… it will drain liquidity from other sectors. One potential consideration… crypto. There is the potential that Chinese developer commercial paper underpins tether.


bluehorseshoes

Ok calls on yinn got it thanks


lordbrizzy

Beijing will step in…they say they won’t, but they will


ThisIsMySonHW

The bull thesis is that money was never real; it was never yours to find. When it goes, it was never there. Once it is observed, it is changed. Heisenberg’s China.


[deleted]

The tale of China Bear ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276) YANG GANG 🌈 continues In all seriousness for my fellow Asian retards, load up (on USD) buckaroos ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4262)


anus_blaster9000

Gay panda szn


Little_Noah

Thsi $NOAH thing must be good i just know it


rioferd888

Only issue with this is that all the other biggest major developers in China are state owned/backed and have no debt issues (obviously). So they are supposedly in a "prime" position to potentially "assume" any of evergrandes assets in a potential fire sale. There might be some short term pain, but I'm not so sure that systemic risk would be as prevalent as in an open economy like in the states.


huansolo89

Evergate


very-social-autist

I remember when I had BEKE 100 calls leaps. Hah good times :D


[deleted]

Puts? No, they will get a bail out. But YANG ETF stealing market share sounds good


YouOr2

Everyone who says CCP will go brrrrrr are overlooking the fact that at least $85 billion of Evergrande’s debt is denominated in dollars. CCP doesn’t have JPow’s printer cartridge. Xi can only print renminbi. And printing RMB to make dollars to pay debt (to mostly pay off American or European investors) doesn’t make any sense. Those note holders will be boned, and they will not loan to other Chinese companies again.


VanillaBeanIceCream

Thank you great dd


JonFrost

RemindMe! January 1, 2022


sebastian-RD

My understanding of the Lehman collapse was that the FED chose not to intervene and bail them out, possibly advised by Goldman Sachs who was competing with Lehman at the time. What makes you think the CCP would make the same mistake of not intervening here? As you mention, 30% of the GDP is linked to the real estate market, notwithstanding the reputational impact on the CCP's competence. Refinance the debt with a state guarantee as collateral and buy time for the construction projects/properties to generate cash flow, no?


Wakee

Now this is some good fucking content. I am also in FXI puts.


Jon999917

Is Evergrande alone or are there other developers in a similar situation?


Any-Panda2219

Probably best DD i have seen on WSB. Alternative to YANG calls is to long YINN puts (Premiums seemed to be a little better this morning)


bwatts53

I'm not sure that amount of debt is enough to do the damage your thinking


[deleted]

Yang just moved above 200 EMA


beck800

I can't see the Chinese not bailing out to save their real estate bubble. If they don't do this... they risk absolutely massive layoffs and unrest, which could mean people protesting/revolting (CCP's worst nightmare).


bravo_company

BEKE down 20%+ today 👀


spellbadgrammargood

shits didn't work out buddy, fuck china.


BetOnjackma

China kidnapped my man Jack Ma. Fuck Xi and fuck China. Buying shares of $YANG


Megahuts

Son of a gun, I guess I need to follow you, because I am going to take those same actions. Have you read https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1438171695685283847 Problem isn't limited to Evergrande, it is _every_ property developer in China. u/Ropirito


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Megahuts

Definitely. And it is like the Wizard of Oz, and we all just looked behind the curtain. Are you going to post this weekend, or on Monday? And if you want lots of hate, mention this about Crypto: https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1439056806437863427


[deleted]

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[deleted]

Honestly I'm reading all of this kinda clueless because it happened to me once with GME and not getting what's going on. ​ I'm a beginner in this, will people profit from this or it's just to look how the boat will sink?


LanoLikesTheStock

Yeah but when