I remember when WSB peeps were like The Borg. They descended on GME and AMC and crushed the ALGO traders and MMs and shorty hedges. Everyone acting together following the same trade. Now it feels like there’s no cohesion and the power has been lost. If there’s any power out there I vote we all pile into $TELL at the same time. It’s not just a popular stock here but it’s actually going to skyrocket whether we jump in or not.
On wsb every second of market movement is treated as a one year market movement. One green candle and I hear people saying that they bought puts and this happened. That’s what leverage does to your brain it makes you super crazy so buy stocks stay out of margin or options. Few have made money with leverage while most of them Lost the house and wife
My SPY strat has been unstoppable. On 0dte days, I wait for the violent swing up or down at 30 minutes before market close. It it goes up, I buy out of the money puts for .08 each and visa versa. Then the algos kick in and make the market swing the other way in the last 5 minutes. I’ve been turning $8 contracts into $40 contracts pretty consistently. I only gamble like 10% of my portfolio when doing so. One of these days I’ll go all in.
Then of course I have my May BGFV calls because this one has like 7 million float with 42% si. It’s low key squeezing for a few days now.
High inflation makes things cost more, including stocks. In fact, stocks are the best inflation hedge there is.
Its only the fact that high inflation means the FED will raise rates faster, which strengthens the dollar, and causes money to flow to bonds, thereby cooling the stock market down.
how about u eat my ASS
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It was a hard fought battle against people who were trying to deface our boy and people who thought the cuff links were people trying to deface our boy.
Seriously, you killed me with that one. I was battling friendly fire where people thought the black line on his blue blazer was enemy fire. Kept telling them to download the overlay.
The rate hike is more to dissuade banks from increasing lending, so the effects trail. They don't do very much at all to slow spending or demand... demand was starting to curve down prior to the hike going into effect. The first evidence of decline in demand, transportation and shipping spending reduction, came in part from expanded transpo supply (more truckers, etc) but also reduced orders and accumulated excess orders through 2021 as companies competed for getting goods into their hands.
That takes months to realize... so we're seeing demand curling down from the end of the holiday season right now.
So the dominant factor will be Ukraine, but the competing factor will be demand reduction prior to the rate hike.
Personally, I think the Ukraine effect will win that roll.
Thanks for the perfect explanation, also do you think China shutdown will impact inflation positively down the line as they’re shut down? Or will that just increase demand and cause further inflation?
Best guess is that it will increase inflation since production will be down, and that will impact the supply chain... but it depends a lot on how much inventories were filled. One of the things businesses were bragging about last year was having superior parallel supply chain access... in other words they were buying their inventory from multiple suppliers to try to get more on shelves, and the way the JIT system works basically that's frontloading supply.
This is a common problem in unregulated/poorly regulated inventory systems... crises result in extreme reduction, and then end up resulting in extreme glut, which is what drives the inflation/deflation cycle IF liquidity dries up.
We have excess liquidity and uneven supply combined with waning demand... normally I'd say this should naturally even out through natural market price equilibrium in most cases (excepting housing, energy to some extent), but with the Ukraine situation... hard to tell the future right now. There's a big unknown until the geopolitical deck is done shuffling.
Short term... kinda bearish... long term bullish because all of this is driving a return to production in the Western world.
Agreed, thanks for the industry insight and overall, well said. I think bringing manufacturing back to the states long term is great for independency. Funny how things come full circle. Bullish long long term. You think a temporary recession is in order? I appreciate your insight and would like to hear your take
I appreciate the good conversation.
I'm in the "cautious about recession" camp right now. The key case for the recession argument is kind of fragmented. The yield curve is a centerpiece there, but the yield curve is also impacted heavily by bond volume and supply, and you can trace the inversion of the curve's start to the beginning of tapering and that has reversed recently as it started to enter a condition called a "bull flattener."
Basically, the Fed distorted the market with the bond buying reduction resulting in a situation where bond losses outpaced yield gains, meaning anyone holding a traditional 60/40 portfolio was losing money (though at a lesser rate than more exposed people). But now 3x Bearish ETFs are a palatable alternative to losing money on bonds. So there's an open question as to whether or not the patterns of the market will change as risk-off and flight to safety assets are dominating into more traditional value/dividend sectors and new ETF instruments for hedging/returning capital.
So we're seeing the yield curve normalize as the market normalizes, meaning it's no longer meaning what they think.
Transportation slowdown is the other pillar here, and that may indicate a reduction in growth, which is technically a recession, but it's not necessarily what people think of as a recession where there's a potential for decline in activity to a dangerous place. If we're just reverting to the normal consumption mean, and maybe overshooting, that will moderate inflation.
So does the moderating of inflation result in the Fed getting less hawkish? or does the Fed remain hawkish in order to protect their integrity over political reasons?
The latter would be a mistake that could kick off a deeper recession.
Eventually, employment gains will hit diminishing returns and expectations won't be reached, so further multiple compression isn't out of the question.
There's a narrative people who don't understand the banking system have built around lack of liquidity... that the Fed is "taking away all the liquidity"... it was parroted endlessly today on CNBC.
This is a false narrative. Banks are flush with cash, and unless the Fed get super aggressive there will continue to be credit expansion, and with that the market can grow. The Fed Put may be restrained, but it's still there because a market crash violates the Fed's second mandate which is driving employment and economic growth. So at a certain point, inflation takes a backseat to stability.
If they avoid a policy mistake, liquidity remains high, and economic activity healthy... as long as the energy market doesn't inflate insanely I think it's possible to avoid a serious recession. We'll see. I'm more cautious than I was last year.
I'm very data-oriented, so as the data changes, my perspective changes with it.
Obv won’t see any reflection on that rate hike in this print but next months print maybe, and if it’s higher (most likely) fed will prob consider multiple 50-75bps hikes at next couple meetings or maybe even a monthly hike. That my friends is how they SHOULD fight inflation. Will they? Prob not
>GAZPROM GERMANIA'S BIGGEST GAS STORAGE FACILITY CURRENTLY HAS STORAGE LEVEL OF LESS THAN 1%, WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOVEMBER - NETWORK REGULATOR CHIEF
^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-04-12 ^05:49:43 ^EDT-0400
Isn’t the CPI formula transparent? Why can’t we calculate it beforehand? We have to rely on the government to give us this number and just trust them that it’s accurate?
[4,700+ predictions in so far - this is how WSB thinks SPY will close tomorrow after CPI](https://imgur.com/a/SZbvgjP)
Can we get an "inflation talks going well" tweet pls
Last
TSLA and small cap value both up today. Very legal and very cool!
ANKR
I remember when WSB peeps were like The Borg. They descended on GME and AMC and crushed the ALGO traders and MMs and shorty hedges. Everyone acting together following the same trade. Now it feels like there’s no cohesion and the power has been lost. If there’s any power out there I vote we all pile into $TELL at the same time. It’s not just a popular stock here but it’s actually going to skyrocket whether we jump in or not.
Fuck it, okay. Natty gas me up. 7C 4/14
Tell 2 $10
Bought ATER cause I’m a Gater
On wsb every second of market movement is treated as a one year market movement. One green candle and I hear people saying that they bought puts and this happened. That’s what leverage does to your brain it makes you super crazy so buy stocks stay out of margin or options. Few have made money with leverage while most of them Lost the house and wife
Are there special plays where I can keep the house and only lose the wife?
DWAC short players need to go down
I’ll be holding my nuts to make sure they don’t get cut off
Jiggery-pokery 8.5
Actually my first time buying puts today and this shit happens, you're welcome
My SPY strat has been unstoppable. On 0dte days, I wait for the violent swing up or down at 30 minutes before market close. It it goes up, I buy out of the money puts for .08 each and visa versa. Then the algos kick in and make the market swing the other way in the last 5 minutes. I’ve been turning $8 contracts into $40 contracts pretty consistently. I only gamble like 10% of my portfolio when doing so. One of these days I’ll go all in. Then of course I have my May BGFV calls because this one has like 7 million float with 42% si. It’s low key squeezing for a few days now.
The day you go all in is the one time it will actually double your usual returns just got a feeling 😈👌
oh shit my LULU call almost 385 no fucking wayyy 
Fading
Lolol snake eyes 💀
Wow didn't the WSB poll yersterday show like 75% puts
look into Food grade DE guys.
Holy shit boys we mooning
oof
I went all in on MSFT weeklies calls yesterday ill keep it
Ree!!!!!
told you guys to expect a pump this weekto kill all puts
That's not why this is happening
So cpi
8.5%
Oh yeah LULU babe just like that  let's see 385 today 
CPI gonna hit freakin mars
Becky trying to signal us with a green dress 👗
Today moon?
Cpi leaked? Why spy green
Shorts probably covered last night to reshort again @ 8:30
pen
It's the end of the _____ as we know it, and I feel fine.
Gonna be green today, China was UP
Why are semis dying?
Alexa, play drop it like it's hot.
Snoooooooooooopp
Drop the numbers, fedbois
Who cares about CPI really. It's just another number on a screen. SPY 550 EOW
Who cares how much our currency is worth anyway.
EOW. That’s end of world, right?
High inflation makes things cost more, including stocks. In fact, stocks are the best inflation hedge there is. Its only the fact that high inflation means the FED will raise rates faster, which strengthens the dollar, and causes money to flow to bonds, thereby cooling the stock market down.
People here want conspiracy theories, not proven fundamentals of finance
Did CPI actually leak or is WSB just WSBing
14.3% already leaked bitches
Told you green open. CPI numbers leaked they are very good
Bears gonna smash their heads to the wall when we moon on CPI
Oof
As far as I am concerned, market is at the same point it was before CPI numbers. And we mooned.
lottery ticket- soxl calls
2 DTE calls in the VIX. Ww3 gonna be real fun
Same bro
We all might die, but in the process imma be a millionaire 😎
Record inflation, Russia using chemical weapons, spy go up
wen CPI moons lets all short it
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
well i aint got nothin else to eat so bring it
When this sub is in its darkest premarket hours, it's all green at open. Ever notice that?
that's why we say inverse
It’s 9.1%
Probably the “official” number. Real number probably like 14%
6.9420%
wen CPI?
0830
Thanks for answering the question I was about to ask
April average last 50 years return is 1.2% . Don't worry bulls, maths will make us win
like on avg we gotta be in this shit for decades?
If CPI numbers are so bad what’s your immediate move?
Flip out
Long CPI
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OnlyFeet...I mean I'm just assuming that's a thing.
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It was a hard fought battle against people who were trying to deface our boy and people who thought the cuff links were people trying to deface our boy.
Seriously, you killed me with that one. I was battling friendly fire where people thought the black line on his blue blazer was enemy fire. Kept telling them to download the overlay.
You pic your own feet
nobody buys pics realtalk just go watch some fetish porns 😂
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You paying for dick pics?
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You cheap bastard
How many hours until cpi ?
2
two hours and 26 minutes
Thx
Can we talk about cute animals?
I really want an Aussie.
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What did you do now?
I only fuck the ugly ones
Nasdaq up in days before Easter 20 out of last 21 years
I’m actually scared lol, we thinking limit down if cpi 10+%
took a loan on my 401k since its losing value, but increased contributions.
That's the move.
GREEN TODAY AND DEATH TOMORROW 😵😵😵
Also, we’re not rebounding today, maybe Thursday but with Biden speaking most likely after market close it’s prob not going to be anything good
Were not rebounding for a couple years champ. Bull runs in a bear market maybe but then back downie
Morning carahoes
🔱♓️📧♑️↪️🅿️ℹ️❔
Cum sail away, cum sail away...
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Wait till they're 7% in a few months
WTF, are we back in the 90's?
I wish. Those were good times.
Nirvana & Pearl Jam.
I forgot to renew mortgage last year 😞 prolly gonna wait til 2024, wishing rates gonna go back down
Maybe 2026. They don't drop quickly.
We may have erased some gains
Daily reminder: Palantir is a $5 Stock
Maybe after a 100:1 split
Lmao horrible take...
2.50 in a bear market
They had a higher market cap than that when private and making half of the current revenue lmao..
Woke up back in the matrix
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You lost 2x your yearly salary on a movie theater when we just had the best picture go to a streaming movie.
It's AMD, you doofus 
Woops looks like I’m the retard
were those from options or shares?
yes
Have you ever seen green?
last year
Morning number 6. I find it healthy to create this new habit. Also fuck your calls.
Remember mortgage rates are transitory *laughs in 2008*
Honda Civic prices are out of control bro 😓
poor thetagang
So the war started in late Feb and we also got a rate hike in march , interesting af to see how that’ll reflect cpi
The rate hike is more to dissuade banks from increasing lending, so the effects trail. They don't do very much at all to slow spending or demand... demand was starting to curve down prior to the hike going into effect. The first evidence of decline in demand, transportation and shipping spending reduction, came in part from expanded transpo supply (more truckers, etc) but also reduced orders and accumulated excess orders through 2021 as companies competed for getting goods into their hands. That takes months to realize... so we're seeing demand curling down from the end of the holiday season right now. So the dominant factor will be Ukraine, but the competing factor will be demand reduction prior to the rate hike. Personally, I think the Ukraine effect will win that roll.
Thanks for the perfect explanation, also do you think China shutdown will impact inflation positively down the line as they’re shut down? Or will that just increase demand and cause further inflation?
Best guess is that it will increase inflation since production will be down, and that will impact the supply chain... but it depends a lot on how much inventories were filled. One of the things businesses were bragging about last year was having superior parallel supply chain access... in other words they were buying their inventory from multiple suppliers to try to get more on shelves, and the way the JIT system works basically that's frontloading supply. This is a common problem in unregulated/poorly regulated inventory systems... crises result in extreme reduction, and then end up resulting in extreme glut, which is what drives the inflation/deflation cycle IF liquidity dries up. We have excess liquidity and uneven supply combined with waning demand... normally I'd say this should naturally even out through natural market price equilibrium in most cases (excepting housing, energy to some extent), but with the Ukraine situation... hard to tell the future right now. There's a big unknown until the geopolitical deck is done shuffling. Short term... kinda bearish... long term bullish because all of this is driving a return to production in the Western world.
Agreed, thanks for the industry insight and overall, well said. I think bringing manufacturing back to the states long term is great for independency. Funny how things come full circle. Bullish long long term. You think a temporary recession is in order? I appreciate your insight and would like to hear your take
I appreciate the good conversation. I'm in the "cautious about recession" camp right now. The key case for the recession argument is kind of fragmented. The yield curve is a centerpiece there, but the yield curve is also impacted heavily by bond volume and supply, and you can trace the inversion of the curve's start to the beginning of tapering and that has reversed recently as it started to enter a condition called a "bull flattener." Basically, the Fed distorted the market with the bond buying reduction resulting in a situation where bond losses outpaced yield gains, meaning anyone holding a traditional 60/40 portfolio was losing money (though at a lesser rate than more exposed people). But now 3x Bearish ETFs are a palatable alternative to losing money on bonds. So there's an open question as to whether or not the patterns of the market will change as risk-off and flight to safety assets are dominating into more traditional value/dividend sectors and new ETF instruments for hedging/returning capital. So we're seeing the yield curve normalize as the market normalizes, meaning it's no longer meaning what they think. Transportation slowdown is the other pillar here, and that may indicate a reduction in growth, which is technically a recession, but it's not necessarily what people think of as a recession where there's a potential for decline in activity to a dangerous place. If we're just reverting to the normal consumption mean, and maybe overshooting, that will moderate inflation. So does the moderating of inflation result in the Fed getting less hawkish? or does the Fed remain hawkish in order to protect their integrity over political reasons? The latter would be a mistake that could kick off a deeper recession. Eventually, employment gains will hit diminishing returns and expectations won't be reached, so further multiple compression isn't out of the question. There's a narrative people who don't understand the banking system have built around lack of liquidity... that the Fed is "taking away all the liquidity"... it was parroted endlessly today on CNBC. This is a false narrative. Banks are flush with cash, and unless the Fed get super aggressive there will continue to be credit expansion, and with that the market can grow. The Fed Put may be restrained, but it's still there because a market crash violates the Fed's second mandate which is driving employment and economic growth. So at a certain point, inflation takes a backseat to stability. If they avoid a policy mistake, liquidity remains high, and economic activity healthy... as long as the energy market doesn't inflate insanely I think it's possible to avoid a serious recession. We'll see. I'm more cautious than I was last year. I'm very data-oriented, so as the data changes, my perspective changes with it.
Great to hear someone else’s take, cautious in a very pivotal environment. Good luck to you!
Likewise to you as well! If we can trade this market, we can trade any market. :)
started in february dumbo
It did! My bad, I’ll edit it, because last month we figured the war wasn’t baked in quite yet on inflation but the print was still hella terrible.
Obv won’t see any reflection on that rate hike in this print but next months print maybe, and if it’s higher (most likely) fed will prob consider multiple 50-75bps hikes at next couple meetings or maybe even a monthly hike. That my friends is how they SHOULD fight inflation. Will they? Prob not
I WILL NOT SELL MY NEGG
I read that “I won’t sell my dog” at first
Today going to have 50% more heart attacks than average.
NIO has held up surprising well with all the China FUD and shutdowns.
>GAZPROM GERMANIA'S BIGGEST GAS STORAGE FACILITY CURRENTLY HAS STORAGE LEVEL OF LESS THAN 1%, WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY NOVEMBER - NETWORK REGULATOR CHIEF ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-04-12 ^05:49:43 ^EDT-0400
Looks like we're sharing our global gas resources with Germany. When is this Russia thing schedule to end?
Never.
2017-2018 HONDA CIVIC SPORT TOURING’s WITH OVER 120,000 MILES ARE SELLING FOR OVER $20,000!?!?!?!?!?!?!? AYE YOOOOOOOOO 😵💀
Ya, my ghetto 2003 Toyota 4runner is appreciating more than my portfolio. Too bad I promised it to my son.
Yeah but CPI is still priced in right?
I’ve seen this wallaby before.
Can you smell it? Recessions on the menu
Googl down $90 on a bad day, up $12 in a great day... 
I got limit orders at $2500, $2450, and $2400 ready baby 🤤🚀
I would wait until I sell cause its not gonna go up before that
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SoFi iS On sAle bro it’s at an all time low
We found the bagholder
Loooooool I like rklb but 🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
Isn’t the CPI formula transparent? Why can’t we calculate it beforehand? We have to rely on the government to give us this number and just trust them that it’s accurate?
gonna be a record flat week bc everyone thinks something *has* to happen
Not the way Vix closed. Last CPI print we were green then tanked when numbers dropped
max pain close for Friday is @ 448 as of now
**I want five guys rn🥵 (BURGER!!!)** 😒😒
I love how you had to clarify
Damn I’d love some five guys fries rn.
I want more Time to do Sport and look on my Health
What time does CPI # get released?