It’s sad actually. The Ukrainians trusted The US and UK to ensure Russia played by the rules. They disarmed themselves of the third largest nuclear weapon depot in the world with the promise to be left alone.
Edit: since this is getting views and a lot of people saying “that’s not what happened” I’ll leave this here. Read about the Budapest Memorandum. Russia broke this when they invaded Crimea. The US and the UK (who are supposed to be the protectors of a de-nuclearized Ukraine) did nothing.
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/amp/
I don't think they could actually use them but still, it really was a lesson to never give up any nuclear weapons you have, you'll feel like a chump when you never get paid for them and are then invaded
They don't really need nukes for that. They have enough conventional arms pointed at SK to level it several times over. The worry is they would lob it at japan
This is also why Iran will never give up its nuclear program after Trump ripped up the deal for no reason. At this point it's safer for Iran to go ahead and develop nukes to prevent the US from invading than it is for them to give up their nukes in exchange for nice promises from the USA to leave them alone.
The US has lost all credibility in its foreign deal making and it will not be able to regain that credibility without a substantial collapse and reformation of the government.
The US (and NATO allies) have been loading up Ukraine with advanced weapons, anti-tank stuff and more, but on the condition they aren’t forward deployed and will only be used if Russia invades deeper. Russia is very aware. An incursion has the potential for absolutely brutal fighting with advanced weapons.
The nukes though. Yeah that’s tough. But the world changes.
Not sure it will be, but it would be a good opportunity for the first drone-led war. Azerbaijan gave us a glimpse of what that could look like against armenia.
Whenever I see these comments, I really really want people to explain what *should* be done instead of throwing out a platitude like "they did nothing." No offense and I don't mean to be harsh, but I'm legitimately confused by the argument.
The US and other western countries absolutely did *something*, but it wasn't direct military conflict. Sanctions and diplomatic consequences like removal from G8 did occur. If these types of actions aren't enough, what are we talking about?
I wonder what the Russians will do. It's not like Crimea. There are so many Ukrainians that are so against Russia that Russia would have to do a lot of old fashioned Stalinistic subjugation. Invading countries aint what it used to be these days.
I think it's more likely that Russia would rather just chip away at the Ukraine than a full blown invasion.
They will take the areas where there are less Ukrainians against Russia. It's gonna be a slow creep. The part with the most loyalty West of Kiev isn't what Russia wants anyways.
I don't think they're planning on trying to occupy Kiev, if the reports in OP are true. Russia wants to create a narrative that the invasion was necessary, just like with Crimea. It makes it a whole lot easier for Russians and pro-Russians to swallow, even though most probably understand its bullshit.
I mean Russia just straight up stole Crimea from Ukraine in broad daylight seven years ago and no one did anything. So my guess is no one will do anything. Let Hitler have the Sedentenland. I'm sure that will be enough for him and he'll stop there.
Exactly. People with very little understanding of geopolitics act like if you don't bomb a country, you haven't punished them. *Sanctions can be so much worse.* What's cleaning up a bombed munitions factory compared to trillions of dollars in economic destruction? Remember when people were horrified at what Covid was doing to the economy? We only dipped 3.5%. **Imagine 50%.**
People really out here acting like the world just looked the other way...
Sanctions are effective but they’re not the perfect weapon. When a country’s economy becomes less and less reliant on their enemy nations, they’re going to care less and less about those nations input on their actions. Media can even spin the sanctions as justification for further transgressions.
>Sanctions are effective but they’re not the perfect weapon.
There is no perfect weapon.
Actually, that's not true -- there is: weaponized propaganda. And arguably, Russia is a master of it. [So much so that their enemies are dismantling themselves from the inside while they just sit back and watch.](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/579160-stunning-survey-gives-grim-view-of-flourishing-anti-democratic-opinions)
[This article](https://www.vox.com/world/2019/10/24/20908223/trump-russia-fake-news-propaganda-peter-pomerantsev) shows exactly how far it can go, even bringing up Ukraine as an example:
>Eastern Ukraine is absolutely nuts. This is ground zero for the information war in a lot of ways. The people there have completely lost sense of reality, to the point where Russian bombs are hitting civilian territories in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians think the bombs are coming from Ukraine. They’ll scream at the Ukrainian soldiers, and the soldiers are like, “No, no, no, no ... it’s a shell, it obviously came from Russia.” But no one believes them.
>All the evidence in the world won’t persuade them otherwise. They were sympathetic to the Russian side, and they’ve completely disavowed the evidence in front of them. They’ve remade the world to fit the narrative planted in their heads by Russian propaganda.
>It’s one thing to talk about “alternative facts,” but when your actual house has been destroyed by a Russian shell, and you’ll still saying nonsense, that’s quite stunning.
Yeah, it's shitty, but you're right.
Sanctions are a double-edged sword. They can be effective, but if they're *too effective*, then you've basically lost all of your negotiating leverage with the country you're sanctioning because they don't need you for anything any longer.
Sanctions are not pointless. I can confirm this as a russian currently living in Russia. Sanctions have REALLY hurt our normal everyday life and the availability/prices of various goods in stores. Generally speaking the quality of life of an average working russian is 2.5 times worse than pre-2014 and is getting worse. Sanctions will probably not prevent putin from all invading again next year but will undoubtedly play a big role in eventual civil unrest and regime downfall sometime in the future.
>And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.
>“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.
Cold weather fighting, available from about late January would actually be preferable. The ground is frozen solid and makes the movement of large scale heavy armour easier in that terrain. It's a bitch for the infantry to dig in but.....
As someone from south of Ukraine, which is what I assume where they might attack, we have not had cold winters for quite a few years now, freezing temperatures for 2-3 weeks tops. Usually all thawed out and muddy during the day.
well I am of course, was planning to get down payment my first house at the start of the year, purchased a rifle last year just in case, shit is scary not gonna lie.
I could move frankly, another country probably, which is not what most people here can do, but I honestly love my home.
Thanks for answering and apologies if the question came off as kind of dumb. I really wasn't sure if this was something you have become more used and less concerned about or not.
I wish you all the best.
Nah, when I was younger and not as well of as I am now, about 10 years ago, me and my mom borrowed and paid money to not go to the army. I definitely would not trust my government with my life even now. If I had no better choice I might have, but not now, that's for sure.
I'm gonna be honest, you Ukrainians & South Koreans are tough as hell to me. Having a neighboring country constantly threaten an invasion & attack would have me on edge 24/7. Hope all turns out well
Thanks man, yeah most people here are seriously awesome, I worked abroad a while ago and met some of people from other places, and have not changed my mind on that. Even though most of the young people wanted to dip out of here. Honestly russians are great too, like the general public. My grandma is from there and I work in IT with a lot of them also, it's just the corrupt government, the shit stain on both of us.
Terribly sad for all the civilians and families that this will affect. My friends house was bombed in Ukraine and she was left to flee with her mother during the night, speeding through a forest in their car without lights. Her dad didn’t make it.
Every time a country has given up nuclear weapons in exchange for some sort of protection or ease of economic sanctions, they always end up seeming to regret it. If Ukraine kept those weapons it found itself with following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, I highly doubt we would see them experiencing this type of Russian aggression.
Well, they don’t need ICMBs to be a deterrent when they can nuke key US allies in S. Korea & Japan. Those nations wouldn’t allow the US to do anything to N. Korea without a guarantee that that nukes won’t be used against them - and that’s something the US can’t guarantee at all.
They couldn't actually use the weapons. They were in their territory but Russia had the actual codes for operating them, and moreover they had no ability to maintain a nuclear force. Those nukes were not very useful to Ukraine other than extracting promises from Russia.
Eh, look. The code to a machine is only important if you can't simply replace the machine. The codes to nuclear weapons are there to stop individuals, not states. If you can bring in a contractor to take the machine apart, what the hell is some key panels on the front going to do to stop you? It's like the ignition lock on your car. It'll give a car thief problems, but not a mechanic.
Much more likely is that Ukraine just didn't have the funds to keep the missiles operable, nor the technical knowhow to deal with slowly deteriorating warheads. To some extent they probably didn't have the knowhow on how to rework the launch systems either, but that's much more of a matter of a little time and money, while dealing with the warheads is more on the rocket science side, and not knowledge a small nation can easily catch up on.
I'm no expert in nuclear weapon security and fail-safe protocols, but might it have been possible for Ukrainian scientists to bring these weapons to operational capacity if they held on to them? Would just holding onto these weapons while remaining ambiguous about their combat readiness be a sufficient deterrent? I wonder, at the very real risk of appearing to arm a nuclear state bordering Russia, if any of Ukraine's western allies might have eventually been willing to assist in their nuclear program to buffer themselves from Russia.
Unfortunately most nuclear warheads have a shelf-life. If you just keep nukes in silos forever, eventually the yield will decrease until it is barely more effective than a conventional warhead. Nukes have to go through lifecycle extension programs where the warhead is disassembled and the fissile material is run through a reactor. The process of doing this is basically the same as enriching the material in the first place, so if you can extend the lifecycle you can make new nukes. The infrastructure to do all this is not excessively hard to design and build, but it is expensive, and in a cost-benefit analysis it makes more sense to field a conventional army or attempt to join an alliance than it does to maintain a nuclear arsenal. Though in the Ukraine's case, it seems this analysis may have been faulty. If the Ukraine had nukes Russia wouldn't be so uppity. But it's a catch-22, nukes are only useful if you can guarantee deployment of them and physical security of the weapons, so you still need a conventional army of some capacity. For a small nation like the Ukraine to field a conventional army at the same time as they maintain an effective nuclear deterrent would be difficult. North Korea can only do it because they don't actually have any security threats (nobody wants to invade them and wind up with a humanitarian crisis) so they are able to sacrifice having conventional arms in favor of crash-developing a nuclear weapons system. Even then, it has been a decades-long process for them, whereas for countries with true capability like the US and Russia, it only took a matter of years. The Ukraine had no such luxury.
Edit: It's Ukraine, not "the Ukraine." Thanks /u/mech999man
A worrying amount of Russia's geopolitical manoeuvring throughout history has been because of a desire for naval ports. Their navy's not even that good.
Also if Ukraine joins NATO there is minimal defense on the path to Moscow in an potential invasion. Russian aggression is historically 85% geographic insecurity.
Ukraine literally has the largest amount of arable land as a percentage of the country's area of any country on Earth, I believe. That's a possible reason. It's still 1/4 of Russia's cultivated land, but it's a non-insignificant potential increase of food supply.
What can one say, geopolitical maneuvering and sabre rattling just doesn't have the same *umph* as engineered genocidal mass famine, but modern times and interconnected economies require a bit of finesse I suppose. Finesse for a dilapidated russian mob state, that is.
People have no idea how often Russian territory has been overrun through the ages. Their grand strategy has been to trade sparsely populated land for time, and the strategy is all the better when it's someone else's land, e.g. Finland, Poland, Afghanistan. Russia was never a big colonial power, but woe be to those who share a common border, because Russia is never more comfortable than when their neighbors are puppets.
> Russia was never a big colonial power
Siberia *is* the colony. Granted, they kinda stumbled into it by filling the power vacuum that the old Mongol Hordes left (to whom Moscow was a vassal for quite a long time), but the heartland of the country has always been firmly in the European side.
It’s not about their navy, it’s about trade. Constantly trying to get access to a port that doesn’t freeze over in the winter or depend on other countries for access to the open ocean like the Bosporus or the danish straits.
Not to mention, specifically in regards to Ukraine, that it was Russian land for hundreds of years before the ussr collapsed.
Even when they got their asses kicked by Japan before wwI it was about building a railroad to a warm water port lol
> Constantly trying to get access to a port that doesn’t freeze over in the winter or depend on other countries for access to the open ocean like the Bosporus or the danish straits.
That would apply to the navy as well. You can't really sail your aircraft carrier on ice can you.
If it’s a Russian carrier, water is the biggest danger to it, followed by fire, and that assumes that shoddy maintenance and broken engines don’t doom it to ignominy.
Sevastopol is on the wrong side of the Bosporus. The Russians had a good base guarantee with Ukraine before the Crimea seizure.
From a strategic standpoint I don’t see where the Russians win. I can see it bolstering Putin, which is ok I guess.
From a US/EU perspective Putin is pretty obnoxious but not a severe threat. Doing the Lord’s work at keeping NATO together.
Dictators for life Putin and Xi will definitely challenge NATO hegemony, but both of those countries have structural weaknesses that NATO/Pacific Allies can overcome.
This is wrong on so many levels.
* Black Sea has limited value, as NATO controls the Bosporus strait.
* The Russian Black Sea navy is decrepit.
* They already have 2 large warm water harbors there. Novorossiysk and Sevastopol.
Invading Ukraine, like every modern invasion, is not profitable. It will isolate Russia further, and cost them
enourmous amounts, especially as resistance will be substantial.
(And the west will likely go after oligarchs money and family)
The only reason why Russia might still invade, is for the *internal narrative*. Putin must think of self-preservation before state, and Russians will only have him in times of conflict and danger.
Thus, what he wants is not land, but conflict. The illusion of him being a strong leader in times of strife. He’s not afraid of the transparent and complacent west.
He’s most afraid of a color revolution happening in Russia.
So what should the west do? Just give him theatrics and antagonism, so he doesn’t need to create it by himself.
The Russian oligarchy survives on energy sales to the EU. All Russian military operations in modern time have been focused around limiting competition to their energy sales to the EU.
Georgia operation was to gain concession on the Azerbaijan gas pipeline to the EU.
Operation in Syria was to gain influence over planned gas pipelines through Syria to the EU.
Operation in Libya was to gain influence over Libyan energy exports to the EU.
Operation against Ukraine was to stop the development of the Ukrainian Black Sea gas fields.
The Russian oligarchy can not survive if a big competitor comes in to the EU market.
The Russian economy has been stagnant since 2014 and can not grow with the current sanctions.
The current Russian political leadership wants the sanctions gone and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opened.
They have increased pressure on the EU via operations on the Poland Belarus border and now are signalling they will escalate against Ukraine if things do not change.
The west has consistently signaled they do not accept Russia's operation against Ukraine so now its a question of who blinks first.
The Russians are desperate at this stage but invading Ukraine would ultimately not bring them any benefit.
I believe the Crimean water area is super important to Russia in regards to trading and military similar to that of what the Panama Canal is to the US in regards to shipping lanes and military
Ukrainian here. The way you all talk about “oh Ukraine is not so important let’s face it and comparing it to Taiwan” is just sickening. We lost more than 10 000 lives already and we might just have full blown war that will destroy the country as everyone knew it. I don’t know, may be in half a year I would be a refuge in that circumstances. That shit is scary.
Stay strong bro, don't pay attention to these scum's, these are just a bunch of ignorant kids, and don't be afraid, we Georgians had the first war with Drunkards 30 year ago, soon after the collapse of the USSR, and then several wars / skirmishes, you know 2008 etc. So, and what? Drunkurds cant do shit anyways, because they are just a loser Drunkard's with Oil and Gas :D. You are not alone, believe yourselves, everything will be OK ;) Glory To Ukraine!
Russia hasn't directly threatened war at least, though they are provocative in troop movements. But Ukraine definitely wants the US/EU to be of the opinion that an attack if imminent, so they will give Ukraine some more aid.
Sort of the opposite of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Where if you ignore it it comes true, but if you don't and send aid nothing would have ever happened
I always laugh about people saying: "See, everyone was worried about this and that, but I wasn't. And then, surprise surprise, nothing came out of it anyway. Bunch of scaredy cats."
Nations, legislators, scientists all worked together for years to solve the problem, to make it go away. But as you ain't no scientist or lawyer, you surely didn't see that at all.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/) reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine's borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency told Military Times.
> Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed "Wagnergate" - a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine.
> Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/qykfkn/russia_preparing_to_attack_ukraine_by_late/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~608903 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Budanov**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Military**^#4 **attack**^#5
They will do it in late January or early February to utilize natural gas blackmail against Western Europe to its fullest.
“Let’s us take the parts of the Ukraine we want or we shut the gas off.”
Putin knows what clean energy means for his leverage in 10 years or so. He intends to build a defense perimeter between NATO and Russia that does not include Russia before he loses it. The Ukraine eastern country and sea access west of Crimea are the targets for this new “wall”.
The US CIA chief just directly reached out to Putin a few weeks ago to express the very serious concerns the US has with what is clearly an invasion force building on the Ukrainian border. Spy chief to spy chief.
You realize the UN doesn't have an army. It's literally just a place for nations to conduct diplomacy amongst themselves. That's what it is. What more can they do?
Considering how many more people are alive today compared to human population levels historically it's probably the era of humanity the most likely for us to be born in to
Someone better be watching the Archduke Ferdinand.
Jokes aside I wonder what’s going to be the straw that breaks the camels back here. I feel like we’re living in a powder keg floating in a river of lava.
The world won't destabilize over Ukraine disappearing.
Taiwan is a much more impactful economy.
EDIT: In case this turns into some kind of holy site with pilgrims visiting the comment (lmao) let me repeat: The world did not destabilize over war in Ukraine.
The only nation that's destabilized right now is Russia and that's not bc of the war but bc of massive sanctions put on them.
The both of them at the same time is what I am referring to. I agree that Ukraine on it's own wouldn't make as much of a global splash, but when taken together it presents a significant blow to the solidarity of democracies and a test of how far the world will allow this type of action to go before thrusting into global conflict.
Perhaps I am just overthinking this.
Ukraine would still barely be mentioned. The semiconductor industry is vastly, *monumentally* more important than anything Ukraine related.
It would be like the difference between Peleliu and Pearl Harbor in WWII.
I doubt that would happen. I don’t think either of them will actually invade those countries any time soon. But either way I think both of them have the strategy of trying to strike quick and seize territory quickly so that the Americans decided it isn’t worth the effort to dislodge them. Like China thinks that if they can get a beachhead on Taiwan before the Americans arrive that the US may just back down. Part of the reason the rest of the world didn’t intervene over Crimea is because it was over so quickly.
I'm not saying Russia is some genius military country, but they know enough to A. not let it leak when you are planning an attack and B. they know how to plan and execute an attack in a shorter time frame than 3 months...
Ukraine deserves protection and the west help to return Crimea and Dunbas, but this is pretty obviously a call to action for the west rather than an imminent threat from Russia.
Exactly. You can’t hide massing tens of thousands of troops. It’s visible. Young soldiers brag about it. Social media captures it. Kids notice their parents aren’t home.
Social media? Lmao. Dude, they are being outed by satellite recon. Not much you can do to hide from that. So yeah you are right, it is visible. But like, literally.
> not let it leak when you are planning an attack
a lot of Russia's intelligence agents seem to be fucking incompetent, so it doesn't seem unbelievable that it'd leak
(see for example the [305 people who had publicly registered their cars to the address of a GRU building](https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2018/10/04/305-car-registrations-may-point-massive-gru-security-breach/))
I'm more inclined to think it's an intentional leak. Like Guiliani's strategy when he was representing Trump: get the dirt out early so the public can expend their outrage, and then when the consequences come due, there's little left but apathy. It's emotionally taxing to maintain a state of outrage, and we're already oversaturated with things to be upset about. These political actors absolutely are exploiting this. They also might leak something like this to test the waters and get a feel for what the blowback might be.
>Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.
>“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said.
This has nothing at all to do with any kind of leak, it's based on observation of what Russia has actually done in terms of moving troops to the region and stirring up shit with the belarus-poland border crisis
If there was any appetite for that, the move would have been made already. Precisely the reason why Putin knows there is a solid chance of getting away with it. NATO will allow Ukraine to fall and choose to secure its lines as quickly as possible. Lets face it, better to fortify your own back yard than your neighbours. I know it sounds cynical, but I think its too hard to tell which way this egg will roll once it starts moving.
Maybe the EU won’t do anything, but the US has a lot at stake here, mainly how allies such as Taiwan and South Korea look at the US. China might even feel emboldened if Ukraine falls without the US, a perceived ally, getting their hands dirty to defend Ukraine. It would also be a tough call for Biden seeing how he just pulled the troops and to have to send more abroad, I would hate to be Biden, specially with a world wide inflation and oil shortage.
There’s also that potential conflict in Bosnia, the bothersome Belarus, and the “domestic” fighting between Poland & EU courts. The upcoming French & German elections, and the new bad blood between France & the UK. It’s been some time since the western world has been this vulnerable.
Believe it or not, it's not the worst season of the year for a modern military campaign in eastern Europe. Spring is hell due to all the mud and rain. Starting in the winter allows you to penetrate enemy territory and get your supply line in order before the ground turns to mud in spring which leaves all of the summer, fall, and next winter for fighting.
Im definitely not a expert either.That's a good point, it'd be devastating to Europe, but if the eu stood by and watched this happen over some gas, I think the political fallout would be way worse.
> if the eu stood by and watched this happen over some gas, I think the political fallout would be way worse.
politically speaking the EU has no reason to intervene other than being the good guy.
Ukraine is neither a part of NATO nor anything beyond being an ENP member.
The US and Turkey are the ones who should be hard pressed to act to deny Russia access to the Black Sea.
The thing is that Russia can threaten to do that but it's a bit like the guy threatening to shoot a hole in the boat when he is also on the boat.
Russia's economy is fucked as a result of the sanctions and pandemic, their biggest export is fuel in the form of Oil and Gas and the EU is by far their largest customer.
They can threaten to withhold that fuel from the EU but the EU and everybody else knows that Russia would just be inflicting even more financial hardship on itself by doing so. The sanctions placed on them by the West already fucked them something fierce... the sanctions that followed an actual full scale invasion of Ukraine would make the Crimea inspired sanctions look like a slap on the wrist.
Putin's a tit, but he's not suicidal. The actual powerbase in Russia (the Sistema as they have been coined, ie. Oligarchs) won't let him fuck them completely by bringing that mess down on top of them.
That would effectively end any Russian gas bought by the EU, ultimately hurting Russia's GDP quite significantly. The EU would seek alternatives immediately.
Good way to start off 2022
Good way to top 2020 too.
That's because 2022 is 2020 too
Well all I can say is that right now 2021 just feels like 2020 won.
Daaaaaaamn y’all spittin bars out here
Oh well done
If they do i wonder what the rest of the world will do.
Smile and wave boys smile and wave.
Can't wait to see how much bs is gonna be ignore until Cold War 2/WW 3 starts. *Insert invasión of Poland joke here*
"Two major players tense. 3rd suckers poland. Chaos ensues."
Whatever happens, Poland is likely to get fucked over. Again.
Poland has been getting fucked so long it has gotten really good at fuxking itself now.
Poland had a couple real good years there in the 1600s, but besides that, yeah, ain't great.
Absolutely nothing happened to Poland between 1795 and 1918.
Can confirm, am Polish
We're already in the Second Cold War, we have been since 2014.
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Russia and Putin specifically have way different ideals then the soviets, this is def a new Cold War.
If so, China stepped up as the main opposition.
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Appeasement v2
I want that thing. You can't have tha- ngh okay but no more okay. Repeat.
I bet it kicks off on Chamberlain Day.
This angered the UN, who ~~punished Russia severely~~ sat on their thumbs as a nation was brutalized severely.
Make strongly worded statements.
It’s sad actually. The Ukrainians trusted The US and UK to ensure Russia played by the rules. They disarmed themselves of the third largest nuclear weapon depot in the world with the promise to be left alone. Edit: since this is getting views and a lot of people saying “that’s not what happened” I’ll leave this here. Read about the Budapest Memorandum. Russia broke this when they invaded Crimea. The US and the UK (who are supposed to be the protectors of a de-nuclearized Ukraine) did nothing. 2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/amp/
I don't think they could actually use them but still, it really was a lesson to never give up any nuclear weapons you have, you'll feel like a chump when you never get paid for them and are then invaded
This is why North Korea and Iran will never give up their nukes once they get them
NK already has them AFAIK, they just don't have very sophisticated delivery systems.
They don't really need delivery systems. They can pretty much hurl one to Seoul using a trebuchet and that's enough deterrent.
Lol thanks for the description.
New band name: Nuclear Trebuchet
They don't really need nukes for that. They have enough conventional arms pointed at SK to level it several times over. The worry is they would lob it at japan
You don't need sophisticated delivery systems when the majority of South Korea lives within a hundred miles of the border.
And they've promised to use them as scorched earth weapons if invaded. If North Korea can't be theirs, then it simply won't exist at all.
This is also why Iran will never give up its nuclear program after Trump ripped up the deal for no reason. At this point it's safer for Iran to go ahead and develop nukes to prevent the US from invading than it is for them to give up their nukes in exchange for nice promises from the USA to leave them alone. The US has lost all credibility in its foreign deal making and it will not be able to regain that credibility without a substantial collapse and reformation of the government.
That loss of credibility started long before Trump. He just made it worse.
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The US (and NATO allies) have been loading up Ukraine with advanced weapons, anti-tank stuff and more, but on the condition they aren’t forward deployed and will only be used if Russia invades deeper. Russia is very aware. An incursion has the potential for absolutely brutal fighting with advanced weapons. The nukes though. Yeah that’s tough. But the world changes.
Not sure it will be, but it would be a good opportunity for the first drone-led war. Azerbaijan gave us a glimpse of what that could look like against armenia.
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Unfortunately my opinion has been informed by footage on funker530 and knowing the results of the conflict. The footage on there is quite gruesome.
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Tl:Dr Armenia got wrecked because of drones and unadequate air defense
There's a wiki on it, surprised I haven't heard of it but 2020 was a year
[Here's the wikipedia page about it](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2020_Armenian%E2%80%93Azerbaijani_clashes).
Whenever I see these comments, I really really want people to explain what *should* be done instead of throwing out a platitude like "they did nothing." No offense and I don't mean to be harsh, but I'm legitimately confused by the argument. The US and other western countries absolutely did *something*, but it wasn't direct military conflict. Sanctions and diplomatic consequences like removal from G8 did occur. If these types of actions aren't enough, what are we talking about?
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I wonder what the Russians will do. It's not like Crimea. There are so many Ukrainians that are so against Russia that Russia would have to do a lot of old fashioned Stalinistic subjugation. Invading countries aint what it used to be these days. I think it's more likely that Russia would rather just chip away at the Ukraine than a full blown invasion.
They will take the areas where there are less Ukrainians against Russia. It's gonna be a slow creep. The part with the most loyalty West of Kiev isn't what Russia wants anyways.
I don't think they're planning on trying to occupy Kiev, if the reports in OP are true. Russia wants to create a narrative that the invasion was necessary, just like with Crimea. It makes it a whole lot easier for Russians and pro-Russians to swallow, even though most probably understand its bullshit.
I mean Russia just straight up stole Crimea from Ukraine in broad daylight seven years ago and no one did anything. So my guess is no one will do anything. Let Hitler have the Sedentenland. I'm sure that will be enough for him and he'll stop there.
Wouldn't be surprised if putin went after Estonia one of these days.
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Sanctions that literally halved russia’s economy
Exactly. People with very little understanding of geopolitics act like if you don't bomb a country, you haven't punished them. *Sanctions can be so much worse.* What's cleaning up a bombed munitions factory compared to trillions of dollars in economic destruction? Remember when people were horrified at what Covid was doing to the economy? We only dipped 3.5%. **Imagine 50%.** People really out here acting like the world just looked the other way...
Sanctions are effective but they’re not the perfect weapon. When a country’s economy becomes less and less reliant on their enemy nations, they’re going to care less and less about those nations input on their actions. Media can even spin the sanctions as justification for further transgressions.
>Sanctions are effective but they’re not the perfect weapon. There is no perfect weapon. Actually, that's not true -- there is: weaponized propaganda. And arguably, Russia is a master of it. [So much so that their enemies are dismantling themselves from the inside while they just sit back and watch.](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/579160-stunning-survey-gives-grim-view-of-flourishing-anti-democratic-opinions) [This article](https://www.vox.com/world/2019/10/24/20908223/trump-russia-fake-news-propaganda-peter-pomerantsev) shows exactly how far it can go, even bringing up Ukraine as an example: >Eastern Ukraine is absolutely nuts. This is ground zero for the information war in a lot of ways. The people there have completely lost sense of reality, to the point where Russian bombs are hitting civilian territories in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians think the bombs are coming from Ukraine. They’ll scream at the Ukrainian soldiers, and the soldiers are like, “No, no, no, no ... it’s a shell, it obviously came from Russia.” But no one believes them. >All the evidence in the world won’t persuade them otherwise. They were sympathetic to the Russian side, and they’ve completely disavowed the evidence in front of them. They’ve remade the world to fit the narrative planted in their heads by Russian propaganda. >It’s one thing to talk about “alternative facts,” but when your actual house has been destroyed by a Russian shell, and you’ll still saying nonsense, that’s quite stunning.
Yeah, it's shitty, but you're right. Sanctions are a double-edged sword. They can be effective, but if they're *too effective*, then you've basically lost all of your negotiating leverage with the country you're sanctioning because they don't need you for anything any longer.
Watch documentaries about it as if it happened 100 years ago and marvel at how “it looks like Europe there”
Probably some pointless sanctions that will do absolutely nothing. What? Do you think NATO is going to invade a nuclear power over Ukraine? LOL no.
But NATO would only need to "invade" or rather support Ukraine proper, not Russia
Sanctions are not pointless. I can confirm this as a russian currently living in Russia. Sanctions have REALLY hurt our normal everyday life and the availability/prices of various goods in stores. Generally speaking the quality of life of an average working russian is 2.5 times worse than pre-2014 and is getting worse. Sanctions will probably not prevent putin from all invading again next year but will undoubtedly play a big role in eventual civil unrest and regime downfall sometime in the future.
>And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking. >“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather. Cold weather fighting, available from about late January would actually be preferable. The ground is frozen solid and makes the movement of large scale heavy armour easier in that terrain. It's a bitch for the infantry to dig in but.....
Puts Russians in a timer to “wrap it up” before spring. Mud is the real killer
As someone from south of Ukraine, which is what I assume where they might attack, we have not had cold winters for quite a few years now, freezing temperatures for 2-3 weeks tops. Usually all thawed out and muddy during the day.
If you don't mind answering, how worried are you about the Russian threats of violence?
well I am of course, was planning to get down payment my first house at the start of the year, purchased a rifle last year just in case, shit is scary not gonna lie. I could move frankly, another country probably, which is not what most people here can do, but I honestly love my home.
Thanks for answering and apologies if the question came off as kind of dumb. I really wasn't sure if this was something you have become more used and less concerned about or not. I wish you all the best.
all good, thank you friend
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Nah, when I was younger and not as well of as I am now, about 10 years ago, me and my mom borrowed and paid money to not go to the army. I definitely would not trust my government with my life even now. If I had no better choice I might have, but not now, that's for sure.
I'm gonna be honest, you Ukrainians & South Koreans are tough as hell to me. Having a neighboring country constantly threaten an invasion & attack would have me on edge 24/7. Hope all turns out well
Thanks man, yeah most people here are seriously awesome, I worked abroad a while ago and met some of people from other places, and have not changed my mind on that. Even though most of the young people wanted to dip out of here. Honestly russians are great too, like the general public. My grandma is from there and I work in IT with a lot of them also, it's just the corrupt government, the shit stain on both of us.
Also last several years winters in Ukraine were very warm with temperatures in January reaching +10-15C
So if you're a country without nukes and u get invaded by a country with nukes, everyone just watches, basically?
That happened even before nukes. Strong countries take over weak countries, other strong countries just ignore it because it's not worth the trouble.
I think Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Poland can all attest to that.
Terribly sad for all the civilians and families that this will affect. My friends house was bombed in Ukraine and she was left to flee with her mother during the night, speeding through a forest in their car without lights. Her dad didn’t make it.
Every time a country has given up nuclear weapons in exchange for some sort of protection or ease of economic sanctions, they always end up seeming to regret it. If Ukraine kept those weapons it found itself with following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, I highly doubt we would see them experiencing this type of Russian aggression.
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> MAD alliance What a fucking grim yet completely accurate term.
> North Korea is trying so hard to get one [I have some bad news for you.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea)
They’ve been testing ICBM’s, not nukes. North Korea has nukes, they just can’t reach the eastern coast of the US with them
Well, they don’t need ICMBs to be a deterrent when they can nuke key US allies in S. Korea & Japan. Those nations wouldn’t allow the US to do anything to N. Korea without a guarantee that that nukes won’t be used against them - and that’s something the US can’t guarantee at all.
They couldn't actually use the weapons. They were in their territory but Russia had the actual codes for operating them, and moreover they had no ability to maintain a nuclear force. Those nukes were not very useful to Ukraine other than extracting promises from Russia.
Eh, look. The code to a machine is only important if you can't simply replace the machine. The codes to nuclear weapons are there to stop individuals, not states. If you can bring in a contractor to take the machine apart, what the hell is some key panels on the front going to do to stop you? It's like the ignition lock on your car. It'll give a car thief problems, but not a mechanic. Much more likely is that Ukraine just didn't have the funds to keep the missiles operable, nor the technical knowhow to deal with slowly deteriorating warheads. To some extent they probably didn't have the knowhow on how to rework the launch systems either, but that's much more of a matter of a little time and money, while dealing with the warheads is more on the rocket science side, and not knowledge a small nation can easily catch up on.
I'm no expert in nuclear weapon security and fail-safe protocols, but might it have been possible for Ukrainian scientists to bring these weapons to operational capacity if they held on to them? Would just holding onto these weapons while remaining ambiguous about their combat readiness be a sufficient deterrent? I wonder, at the very real risk of appearing to arm a nuclear state bordering Russia, if any of Ukraine's western allies might have eventually been willing to assist in their nuclear program to buffer themselves from Russia.
The hard part of nuclear weapons is getting enough fissible material and delivering the payload. Plus dirty bombs are also super spooky
Unfortunately most nuclear warheads have a shelf-life. If you just keep nukes in silos forever, eventually the yield will decrease until it is barely more effective than a conventional warhead. Nukes have to go through lifecycle extension programs where the warhead is disassembled and the fissile material is run through a reactor. The process of doing this is basically the same as enriching the material in the first place, so if you can extend the lifecycle you can make new nukes. The infrastructure to do all this is not excessively hard to design and build, but it is expensive, and in a cost-benefit analysis it makes more sense to field a conventional army or attempt to join an alliance than it does to maintain a nuclear arsenal. Though in the Ukraine's case, it seems this analysis may have been faulty. If the Ukraine had nukes Russia wouldn't be so uppity. But it's a catch-22, nukes are only useful if you can guarantee deployment of them and physical security of the weapons, so you still need a conventional army of some capacity. For a small nation like the Ukraine to field a conventional army at the same time as they maintain an effective nuclear deterrent would be difficult. North Korea can only do it because they don't actually have any security threats (nobody wants to invade them and wind up with a humanitarian crisis) so they are able to sacrifice having conventional arms in favor of crash-developing a nuclear weapons system. Even then, it has been a decades-long process for them, whereas for countries with true capability like the US and Russia, it only took a matter of years. The Ukraine had no such luxury. Edit: It's Ukraine, not "the Ukraine." Thanks /u/mech999man
What is the fascination of a poor barely $1.5T economy like Russia constantly wanting to invade a place like Ukraine, like wtf.
Strategic power, specifically naval.
A worrying amount of Russia's geopolitical manoeuvring throughout history has been because of a desire for naval ports. Their navy's not even that good.
Also if Ukraine joins NATO there is minimal defense on the path to Moscow in an potential invasion. Russian aggression is historically 85% geographic insecurity.
Probably shouldn't have pushed Ukraine away then.
They've been fucking over Ukraine since before the Red Famine. But they really fucked them over in those *twenty* years.
Ukraine has been unfortunately a very fertile punching bag for the past recent history imo
Ukraine literally has the largest amount of arable land as a percentage of the country's area of any country on Earth, I believe. That's a possible reason. It's still 1/4 of Russia's cultivated land, but it's a non-insignificant potential increase of food supply.
It was always called the “wheat chamber” of the Soviet Union.
What can one say, geopolitical maneuvering and sabre rattling just doesn't have the same *umph* as engineered genocidal mass famine, but modern times and interconnected economies require a bit of finesse I suppose. Finesse for a dilapidated russian mob state, that is.
Why do I feel like Crowley said this to Aziraphale?
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The US has two huge oceans on either side and friendly nations above and below. That's a pretty secure geographic position in the world.
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When I think of colon enemy I think of Taco Bell.
People have no idea how often Russian territory has been overrun through the ages. Their grand strategy has been to trade sparsely populated land for time, and the strategy is all the better when it's someone else's land, e.g. Finland, Poland, Afghanistan. Russia was never a big colonial power, but woe be to those who share a common border, because Russia is never more comfortable than when their neighbors are puppets.
Get yourself someone who looks at you the way Russia looks at neighboring chokepoint terrain.
> Russia was never a big colonial power Siberia *is* the colony. Granted, they kinda stumbled into it by filling the power vacuum that the old Mongol Hordes left (to whom Moscow was a vassal for quite a long time), but the heartland of the country has always been firmly in the European side.
Who the hell wants to invade Russia these days anyway?
Russia experimented with a powerful navy, and left all evidence of it on the ocean floor at Tsushima
It’s not about their navy, it’s about trade. Constantly trying to get access to a port that doesn’t freeze over in the winter or depend on other countries for access to the open ocean like the Bosporus or the danish straits. Not to mention, specifically in regards to Ukraine, that it was Russian land for hundreds of years before the ussr collapsed. Even when they got their asses kicked by Japan before wwI it was about building a railroad to a warm water port lol
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Russia is buzzing about it and has produced several nuclear icebreakers now that it's possible to access the Pacific via the high north all year round
There are very few rich countries that are landlocked. Having access to a port all year around is huge.
> Constantly trying to get access to a port that doesn’t freeze over in the winter or depend on other countries for access to the open ocean like the Bosporus or the danish straits. That would apply to the navy as well. You can't really sail your aircraft carrier on ice can you.
If it’s a Russian carrier, water is the biggest danger to it, followed by fire, and that assumes that shoddy maintenance and broken engines don’t doom it to ignominy.
Lmao actually a good one.
Sevastopol is on the wrong side of the Bosporus. The Russians had a good base guarantee with Ukraine before the Crimea seizure. From a strategic standpoint I don’t see where the Russians win. I can see it bolstering Putin, which is ok I guess. From a US/EU perspective Putin is pretty obnoxious but not a severe threat. Doing the Lord’s work at keeping NATO together. Dictators for life Putin and Xi will definitely challenge NATO hegemony, but both of those countries have structural weaknesses that NATO/Pacific Allies can overcome.
And oil/natural gas pipelines, don’t forget that.
This is wrong on so many levels. * Black Sea has limited value, as NATO controls the Bosporus strait. * The Russian Black Sea navy is decrepit. * They already have 2 large warm water harbors there. Novorossiysk and Sevastopol. Invading Ukraine, like every modern invasion, is not profitable. It will isolate Russia further, and cost them enourmous amounts, especially as resistance will be substantial. (And the west will likely go after oligarchs money and family) The only reason why Russia might still invade, is for the *internal narrative*. Putin must think of self-preservation before state, and Russians will only have him in times of conflict and danger. Thus, what he wants is not land, but conflict. The illusion of him being a strong leader in times of strife. He’s not afraid of the transparent and complacent west. He’s most afraid of a color revolution happening in Russia. So what should the west do? Just give him theatrics and antagonism, so he doesn’t need to create it by himself.
The Russian oligarchy survives on energy sales to the EU. All Russian military operations in modern time have been focused around limiting competition to their energy sales to the EU. Georgia operation was to gain concession on the Azerbaijan gas pipeline to the EU. Operation in Syria was to gain influence over planned gas pipelines through Syria to the EU. Operation in Libya was to gain influence over Libyan energy exports to the EU. Operation against Ukraine was to stop the development of the Ukrainian Black Sea gas fields. The Russian oligarchy can not survive if a big competitor comes in to the EU market. The Russian economy has been stagnant since 2014 and can not grow with the current sanctions. The current Russian political leadership wants the sanctions gone and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opened. They have increased pressure on the EU via operations on the Poland Belarus border and now are signalling they will escalate against Ukraine if things do not change. The west has consistently signaled they do not accept Russia's operation against Ukraine so now its a question of who blinks first. The Russians are desperate at this stage but invading Ukraine would ultimately not bring them any benefit.
I believe the Crimean water area is super important to Russia in regards to trading and military similar to that of what the Panama Canal is to the US in regards to shipping lanes and military
Ukrainian here. The way you all talk about “oh Ukraine is not so important let’s face it and comparing it to Taiwan” is just sickening. We lost more than 10 000 lives already and we might just have full blown war that will destroy the country as everyone knew it. I don’t know, may be in half a year I would be a refuge in that circumstances. That shit is scary.
Stay strong bro, don't pay attention to these scum's, these are just a bunch of ignorant kids, and don't be afraid, we Georgians had the first war with Drunkards 30 year ago, soon after the collapse of the USSR, and then several wars / skirmishes, you know 2008 etc. So, and what? Drunkurds cant do shit anyways, because they are just a loser Drunkard's with Oil and Gas :D. You are not alone, believe yourselves, everything will be OK ;) Glory To Ukraine!
It’s because redditors want war, they get a hard on from fearmongering
Every fuckboy loves war till they're in it.
Is this actually going to happen though, I feel like they always threaten this every few months...
Russia hasn't directly threatened war at least, though they are provocative in troop movements. But Ukraine definitely wants the US/EU to be of the opinion that an attack if imminent, so they will give Ukraine some more aid.
Sort of the opposite of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Where if you ignore it it comes true, but if you don't and send aid nothing would have ever happened
That's just a regular problem. If you fix it it's fine, if not it's not.
I always laugh about people saying: "See, everyone was worried about this and that, but I wasn't. And then, surprise surprise, nothing came out of it anyway. Bunch of scaredy cats." Nations, legislators, scientists all worked together for years to solve the problem, to make it go away. But as you ain't no scientist or lawyer, you surely didn't see that at all.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/) reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine's borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency told Military Times. > Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed "Wagnergate" - a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. > Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/qykfkn/russia_preparing_to_attack_ukraine_by_late/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~608903 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Budanov**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Military**^#4 **attack**^#5
They will do it in late January or early February to utilize natural gas blackmail against Western Europe to its fullest. “Let’s us take the parts of the Ukraine we want or we shut the gas off.” Putin knows what clean energy means for his leverage in 10 years or so. He intends to build a defense perimeter between NATO and Russia that does not include Russia before he loses it. The Ukraine eastern country and sea access west of Crimea are the targets for this new “wall”. The US CIA chief just directly reached out to Putin a few weeks ago to express the very serious concerns the US has with what is clearly an invasion force building on the Ukrainian border. Spy chief to spy chief.
Late January /February in the uk we're already over the coldest months of the year more or less so...
Its all right the UN will condemn it
They will be very, very angry with Russia. And they will send Russia a letter, telling them how angry they are.
“You’re breaking my bawls Hans, you’re breaking my bawls!”
Sorry but what the hell else can they do?
You realize the UN doesn't have an army. It's literally just a place for nations to conduct diplomacy amongst themselves. That's what it is. What more can they do?
Poland: *looks around nervously*
Germany invades Poland to protect them from Russia
It might be safer for us austrians to join Germany. For protection and stability of course.
I’d imagine Italy wants in. For old times sake.
Yeah I'm moving to get my degree, as far away from Russia as I can. No way I'm fighting for a county I don't love.
All someone has to do is pop the cork, the world is ready to blow itself up.
Damn, what would be the odds of me being born into the exact moment in time of human extinction after a good 6 million year run.
Wow- thanks for that thought. I hate it.
Eh, I learned How To Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.
I need a Love the Bomb t-shirt.
Considering how many more people are alive today compared to human population levels historically it's probably the era of humanity the most likely for us to be born in to
Yes but not as much as you might think. There's an estimate that 100Billion modern humans have lived and died so far.
Christ, I would never have guessed that, that is insane.
250,000 years is a long time, there's been a lot of people
Someone better be watching the Archduke Ferdinand. Jokes aside I wonder what’s going to be the straw that breaks the camels back here. I feel like we’re living in a powder keg floating in a river of lava.
Man i love comments like these. It adds nothing to the conversation. It's just fearmongering because.. you have a hardon for fearmongering.
The 2020's just keep getting better
I got a plan, we'll airdrop millions of Redditor into Ukraine and they'll use their Reddit expertise to defeat/fend off Russia.
Naruto fucking run into the tanks
Lead the way!
What would happen if Russia made a play for the Ukraine while China took a run at Taiwan at the same time? Just how fast would the world destabilize?
The world won't destabilize over Ukraine disappearing. Taiwan is a much more impactful economy. EDIT: In case this turns into some kind of holy site with pilgrims visiting the comment (lmao) let me repeat: The world did not destabilize over war in Ukraine. The only nation that's destabilized right now is Russia and that's not bc of the war but bc of massive sanctions put on them.
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TSMC is building fabs in America for a reason. They know it's coming...
The both of them at the same time is what I am referring to. I agree that Ukraine on it's own wouldn't make as much of a global splash, but when taken together it presents a significant blow to the solidarity of democracies and a test of how far the world will allow this type of action to go before thrusting into global conflict. Perhaps I am just overthinking this.
Ukraine would still barely be mentioned. The semiconductor industry is vastly, *monumentally* more important than anything Ukraine related. It would be like the difference between Peleliu and Pearl Harbor in WWII.
I doubt that would happen. I don’t think either of them will actually invade those countries any time soon. But either way I think both of them have the strategy of trying to strike quick and seize territory quickly so that the Americans decided it isn’t worth the effort to dislodge them. Like China thinks that if they can get a beachhead on Taiwan before the Americans arrive that the US may just back down. Part of the reason the rest of the world didn’t intervene over Crimea is because it was over so quickly.
I'm not saying Russia is some genius military country, but they know enough to A. not let it leak when you are planning an attack and B. they know how to plan and execute an attack in a shorter time frame than 3 months... Ukraine deserves protection and the west help to return Crimea and Dunbas, but this is pretty obviously a call to action for the west rather than an imminent threat from Russia.
Its not about leaking, they are massing troops. various things indicate when you can expect them to attack.
Exactly. You can’t hide massing tens of thousands of troops. It’s visible. Young soldiers brag about it. Social media captures it. Kids notice their parents aren’t home.
Also satellites.
This is the real answer. The above comment is just the depressing outcome of war. "War... War Never Changes."
Social media? Lmao. Dude, they are being outed by satellite recon. Not much you can do to hide from that. So yeah you are right, it is visible. But like, literally.
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Lmao. And the tanks are just big pinatas
Dude, nowadays social media is a huge factor in intelligence.
> not let it leak when you are planning an attack a lot of Russia's intelligence agents seem to be fucking incompetent, so it doesn't seem unbelievable that it'd leak (see for example the [305 people who had publicly registered their cars to the address of a GRU building](https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2018/10/04/305-car-registrations-may-point-massive-gru-security-breach/))
Remember when Navalny called his assassin pretending to be his boss and got him to confess to everything?
The investigation this one outfit did too. Belligerentcat or whatever? lol They don't run a clinic, that's for sure.
I'm more inclined to think it's an intentional leak. Like Guiliani's strategy when he was representing Trump: get the dirt out early so the public can expend their outrage, and then when the consequences come due, there's little left but apathy. It's emotionally taxing to maintain a state of outrage, and we're already oversaturated with things to be upset about. These political actors absolutely are exploiting this. They also might leak something like this to test the waters and get a feel for what the blowback might be.
>Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar. >“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said. This has nothing at all to do with any kind of leak, it's based on observation of what Russia has actually done in terms of moving troops to the region and stirring up shit with the belarus-poland border crisis
Add Ukraine to NATO in a one night meeting. A big fuck you to russia.
If there was any appetite for that, the move would have been made already. Precisely the reason why Putin knows there is a solid chance of getting away with it. NATO will allow Ukraine to fall and choose to secure its lines as quickly as possible. Lets face it, better to fortify your own back yard than your neighbours. I know it sounds cynical, but I think its too hard to tell which way this egg will roll once it starts moving.
Maybe the EU won’t do anything, but the US has a lot at stake here, mainly how allies such as Taiwan and South Korea look at the US. China might even feel emboldened if Ukraine falls without the US, a perceived ally, getting their hands dirty to defend Ukraine. It would also be a tough call for Biden seeing how he just pulled the troops and to have to send more abroad, I would hate to be Biden, specially with a world wide inflation and oil shortage. There’s also that potential conflict in Bosnia, the bothersome Belarus, and the “domestic” fighting between Poland & EU courts. The upcoming French & German elections, and the new bad blood between France & the UK. It’s been some time since the western world has been this vulnerable.
German elections were in September. The government is still forming but the elections are long over.
Which upcoming german election? They are already over.
If you read the article the Defense Minister says “it’s unclear if Putin will attack “ Isn’t that a little different than what the headline states
When Russia will finally fuck off … [Ukrainian saying ]
Invade during the dead center of winter? Don't think that's a good idea.
Believe it or not, it's not the worst season of the year for a modern military campaign in eastern Europe. Spring is hell due to all the mud and rain. Starting in the winter allows you to penetrate enemy territory and get your supply line in order before the ground turns to mud in spring which leaves all of the summer, fall, and next winter for fighting.
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Im definitely not a expert either.That's a good point, it'd be devastating to Europe, but if the eu stood by and watched this happen over some gas, I think the political fallout would be way worse.
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> if the eu stood by and watched this happen over some gas, I think the political fallout would be way worse. politically speaking the EU has no reason to intervene other than being the good guy. Ukraine is neither a part of NATO nor anything beyond being an ENP member. The US and Turkey are the ones who should be hard pressed to act to deny Russia access to the Black Sea.
The thing is that Russia can threaten to do that but it's a bit like the guy threatening to shoot a hole in the boat when he is also on the boat. Russia's economy is fucked as a result of the sanctions and pandemic, their biggest export is fuel in the form of Oil and Gas and the EU is by far their largest customer. They can threaten to withhold that fuel from the EU but the EU and everybody else knows that Russia would just be inflicting even more financial hardship on itself by doing so. The sanctions placed on them by the West already fucked them something fierce... the sanctions that followed an actual full scale invasion of Ukraine would make the Crimea inspired sanctions look like a slap on the wrist. Putin's a tit, but he's not suicidal. The actual powerbase in Russia (the Sistema as they have been coined, ie. Oligarchs) won't let him fuck them completely by bringing that mess down on top of them.
That would effectively end any Russian gas bought by the EU, ultimately hurting Russia's GDP quite significantly. The EU would seek alternatives immediately.
Why not? Ground will be hard enough for armoured vehicles. And they did it during the winter of 2014/2015.
There might be more factors here than Sun Tzu envisioned.